Integrated Mobility - TNTDPCtntdpc.com/automotive-2017/Srihari Mulgund.pdf · 2017-03-20 ·...

© Ricardo plc 2017

Automotive R&D Trends - Chennai

9th March 2017

Integrated Mobility

209 March 2017Automotive R&D Trends 2017© Ricardo plc 2017

Content

• Shifts in personal mobility patterns

• Integrated mobility

• Ricardo’s vision of future mobility


Walk

Regulation, lack of space and increasing traffic density are driving

people to adopt newer ways of moving around

Bike-Sharing

Shifts in personal mobility patterns – Key drivers (1/2)

TODAY

Car-sharing

EV On-Demand

<50km<5km<500m <25km <500km >500km

Increasing population

density and

regulation challenge

future mobility

Capacity increase in

public transport, new

mobility concepts and

reduction of parking

space influence the

modal split

Space constraints are

one of the key issues

for future mobility

TOMORROWRange and precision

Public tr.

Train

Airplane

Owned car

Walk

Bike Public tr.

Train

Airplane

Owned car

Parking problems, entry barriers,

congestion charging, etc.

Explanation: Transfer optionPrecision to target Range Mode

Example: Trip to airport

Source: Ricardo

Shift in personal mobility patterns


Gridlock congestion, unacceptable levels of road fatalities and health

threatening air quality issues are more pressing than ever before

Challenges Solution Concepts

Shifts in personal mobility patterns – Key drivers (2/2)

Air Quality

Estimated to kill 1.5

million people every

year in India; Delhi is

the city with the worst

air pollution monitored

in a WHO survey of

1600 cities world-wide

Congestion

Significant economic

losses (>10bn US per

annum for freight

carrying alone); major

nuisance and

inefficiency

Safety

High accident rates (India has

highest absolute number of road

fatalities of all countries in the

world; mega-cities are leading

the death toll statistics; urban

poor disproportionally affected)

Metro-System

Electric Cars

Car Sharing

Autonomous

Vehicles

Mobility-on-

Demand

Connectivity

Bus Rapid

Transit

Smart

Cities

Tele-

Working

Traffic

Guidance

Systems


Source: Ricardo


Geographic and cultural variances add to the complexity, mandating

customized personal mobility solutions

3.2 Mio.

6,632 pro km²

+0.6% p.a.

Inhabitant

density;

growth

1.9 Mio.

6,114 pro km²

+0.9% p.a.

13.0 Mio.

6,436 pro km²

+2.9% p.a.

5.1 Mio.

7,126 pro km²

+2.1% p.a.

46%

31%

32%

31%23%

33%

37%4%

7% 39%

7% 28%

10%

3%32% 9%

28%

San

Francisco

Copenhagen

Shenzhen

Singapore

Geographic and cultural influence on personal mobility

Modal split

k.A.

Political initiatives push new and innovative

mobility concepts (legisalation, tax)

Openness for innovative and highly networked

solution due to proximity to Silicon Valley

Special features

Municipality is driving towards car free

city centre

E-mobility and concepts such as car

sharing strongly supported

Highest traffic density in China coupled with

a very limited availability of parking space

Government supports ambitous mobility plan

promoting alternatives to private car usage

Advanved, intelligent traffic control through

variable city toll

Very highTCO for car owners via taxation of

import vehicles and limited registrations

Source: Ricardo analysis



The personal mobility context in India is radically different between

urban, tier 2/3 city and rural areas

Urban / Tier 1 City

Congestion

Air quality

Safety

Sub-Urban / Tier 2/3 City

Comfortable transport

Safety

Efficiency

Rural

Basis transport

Safety

Efficiency

Share of

population

Share of

motored

vehicles

Key issues

~30%

~40%

~30%

~30%

~40%

~30%

Selected

vehicles

Rugged, off-road,

utilitarian

Multi-PurposeRevolution


Source: Ricardo


Customer behavior is increasingly challenging car OEMs and

mobility providers to come up with disruptive mobility models

Personal mobility trends

On demand, customized mobility solutions

become more important – target is no one-

size-fits-all, but a fully segment-specific

solution

Last-mile mobility and flexibility drive customer

experience and satisfaction – gaps to public transport,

airplane, etc. need to be closed

Customers‘ mobility demands change rapidly over time

Customized mobility

Share of downstream value creation increases,

new customer interfaces are set up

Mobility increasingly becomes the product – bundling of

different product components is necessary

Green mobility in form of environmentally friendly

solutions is heavily subsidized by public authorities

Electric mobility products need a much broader service

offering to be marketable to customers (e.g. wallbox)

New downstream business models

Europe and Japan: Owning a car becomes less and

less important, especially for people below 30

Disposable income is increasingly used for other goods

and services (communication, entertainment, travel)

Increasing demand for shared ownership-

concepts to decrease total cost of ownership

Owning a car is increasingly penalized

(parking, taxation, theft, etc.)

Mobility solutions‘ attractiveness increasingly depends

on convenience and interfaces to partners

Comprehensive, multi-modal system solutions are

required to meet individual short- and long-haul

transport (mobility, connectivity, media)

Offering of singular mobility products without

integration becomes more and more difficult

Reduced importance of owning System solutions replace stand-alone products

Personal

Mobility

Trends

Source: Ricardo



Content





Content



– Connected

– Autonomous

– Electric



50+ billion connected devices expected in 2022 – virtually every

product will be connected in the future

Connected world

Source: Visteon, Ricardo

Connected Lifestyle

Connected Industry

Connected Home

Connected Infrastructure

Connected Vehicle

WORLD IN 2022+50+ bn connected devices

WORLD IN

2015

World population

7.3bn~183bn apps

downloaded

2.8bn 3G and 734m

4G connections

Integrated mobility - Connected


Cars are leading the path – the penetration of connected car

technology is already significant today and will grow rapidly

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

+28.1%

2019

65%

2018

59%

2017

52%

2016

40%

2015

30%

2014

22%

(Global Vehicle

Sales)

Th

ou

sa

nd

s V

eh

icle

Un

its(‘0

00

)

Source: IHS 2015

Built-in Phone Telematics (eg. OnStar)Smartphone Telematics (eg. Ford Sync)Dual Connectivity Telematics (Both)

Connected car growth



Car manufacturers are defining bold customer centric connectivity

visions

I can bring my digital life into my vehicle

I can bring my vehicle into my digital life Overall Experience

Personalization& Adaptation

My vehicle knows who I am

My vehicle adapts to who I am

My profile is available on any GM vehicle I drive

My vehicle gets me to my destination based on my preference

Simplicity & Ease of Use

My vehicle is intuitive

My vehicle anticipates my needs

I can speak to my vehicle and it understands what I say

Upgradeability & Lifecycle

My vehicle is upgradeable throughout the ownership lifecycle

My vehicle does not grow old, it gets better and smarter

I can easily add new capabilities at any time, after I buy it

Software Innovation GM has the ability to create and modify software for the vehicle

Investing in software allows us to differentiate our services

Source: General Motors

Vision Areas Customer Experience – Vision Statements



There is a huge of amount of potential connectivity functions – they

need brand and segment specific selection and adaptation

Connectivity functions portfolio (excluding autonomous vehicle)

Cash Cows

Question Marks

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n

High

Low

HighLowCustomer acceptance

Stars

Poor Dogs

Smartphone

Mobile Applications

Remote Door Lock/ Unlock

Cloud Services

Social Media Apps

EV/PHEV: Battery Management

Remote Diagnostics

Software Management

Remote software update

Web Vehicle Diagnostic

Vehicle Services

Intersection Collision Avoidance

Vehicle-to-Vehicle Road Feature

V2X Services

Remote Horn and Lights

Remote Vehicle Start

Remote Diagnostics

Remote Services

Curfew Alert and Speed Alert

Location Sharing

Convenience

Route Guidance with Traffic

Condition

Gas Station Locations and Gas

Prices

Restaurant and Hotel Locator

Weather

Guidance

Vehicle Tracking System

Stolen Vehicle Recovery

Vehicle Immobilization

Panic Notification

Pay-as-you drive insurance

Safeguard / Insurance

Automatic Collision Notification

eCall

bCall

Concierge Services

Help & Safety Traffic Information

Eco-Coach

Hands-free / Bluetooth

EV / Hybrid Services

Infotainment solutions

Driving

Selected Functions

The selection and positioning of potential functions and services needs to be aligned to the business and customer needs


Source: Ricardo


Implementing connectivity has much wider ramifications than

implementing embedded software and electronics

Vehicle

Server application

SOC, alarm centres

PSAP

Connectivity ECU

ECUs and

sensors

Networking

Mobile network

Server-Infrastructure

Smartphone Apps

Web-Portal

Vehicle data

Vehicle Apps

Workshops

Cloud


Source: Ricardo


Vehicle/

ECU

Smart-

phone/ App

Server (IT) Mobile

network

Service

(Call)

Center

E-Mobility

charge management, timers, climatisation, trip statistics, etc.

Vehicle Services

positioning services, door opening, mirror folding, etc.

Support services

e-Call, b-Call, over-the-air services, pay-as-you-drive information, etc.

Connectivity requires establishing new collaboration modes

between stakeholders inside & outside the vehicle manufacturer

Remarks

Different lead

responsibilities at

vehicle manufacturers,

unclear whether

connectivity is vehicle

or IT driven

Press coverage

leading to proliferation

of topic – ranges from

smartphone

integration to

autonomous vehicle

Development cycles

between vehicle and

IT need to be aligned

Development landscape

End-to-end functions require collaboration across functions / business units

which is different to “traditional” vehicle development

The focus is not purely on the vehicle, new service partners play an important

role

Collaboration path between IT and vehicle development needs to be

established

Fu

nc

tio

ns

Stakeholders and focus areas

Key aspects for developing connectivity systems


Source: Ricardo


Content



– Connected

– Autonomous

– Electric



Sources claim significant societal cost benefits of

autonomous vehicles

VDI poll shows strong consumer interest but

confidence in technology needs improving

1,800

1,200

300

150

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Lower

Accidents

Increased

Safety1

Lower

Congestion

Increased

Efficiency2

Widespread

Car Sharing4

Increased

Productivity3

Co

sts

Sa

ve

d $

B p

er

ye

ar

(in

US

)

Sources: 1) “Crashes vs Congestion”, Cambridge Schematics Inc.

2) “Urban Mobility Report”, Texas A&M Transportation Institute and “Evaluation of the public health impacts of traffic congestion”, Harvard School of Public Health

3) “Can we put a price on Autonomous Driving?”, Frazzoli E, MIT Technology Review

4) “Toward a Systematic Approach to the Design and Evaluation of Automated Mobility-on-Demand Systems”, Spieser K, Treleaven K, Zhang R, Frazzoli E, Morton D

54

33

49

82

94

94ADAS features should be

standard

Assistance systems should be

able to play an active role

Driverless vehicles should be

allowed on roads

Excessive multimedia capability

distracts the driver

I have confidence in driverless

moving cars

I wish for more entertainment

beyond radio/ music

% respondents for “Yes”

Autonomous driving can bring societal cost benefit as well as

stimulate consumer interest and desire for features

Integrated mobility - Autonomous


Fully autonomous driving may follow an evolutionary path – Advanced

Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) to Autonomous Vehicles

2010 Today

Ricardo Autonomous Vehicle Technology Roadmap

2050



Today 2020 2025

Limited ADAS Comprehensive Safety Semi-Autonomous

• Rear parking camera

• Adaptive cruise

• Blind spot detection

• Lane departure alert

• Emergency Braking

• Nav system with traffic

• Emergency assistance

• Limited APPs

• Self Parking

• Highway cruise / lane keeping

• Smart stop

• Poor driving condition assistant

• Vehicle to vehicle comms

• Vehicle to Infrastructure

• Adv Nav system with routing

• WIFI hotspot

• Range of assistance,

informational + monitoring APPs

• Valet Parking

• Automated Highway cruise

• Automated low speed driving

• Vehicle to Pedestrian

• Augmented reality driving

assistant

• Smart routing and ETA

• Seamless integration with internet

devices

Sources: Texas Instruments, Car and Driver, Ricardo Analysis

Decentralized systems Partially centralizedCentralized systems

With sensor fusion

Expect

Significant

feature

growth

Mainstream Mid-Size Vehicles

Emerging from Luxury vehicle beginnings, advanced ADAS will

likely permeate mainstream driven by consumer desire



+4%

2020Today

+95%

2025

2025

+106%

2020Today

Hardware

proliferation

expected to

force system

integration to

reduce cost

Increasing

demand for

software features

will create value

growth for NEW

applications

SOFTWARE

HARDWAREControllers

Sensors

Source: Ricardo Analysis

Strong growth expected in mass market ADAS; hardware likely to

experience significant cost reduction efforts by 2025

Mass market mid-size vehicles – OEM cost per vehicle



Likely WinnersCreated by increasing

software value

Possible LosersCaused by cost reduction /

ADAS system integration

Innovative APPs

Semi-Autonomous driving S/W

Cyber Security Systems

Advanced Microprocessors

OTA Communication S/W

Low cost sensors

ECU Suppliers

Vehicle OEMs without

ADAS S/W expertise

Tier 1’s not innovating vehicle

features + architecture

Big Data based solutions

Sensor Fusion S/W

The vehicle value chain is expected to be driven by software feature

sets, high performance hardware and low system cost


Source: Ricardo

Winners & Losers


Legal

Commercial

Technical

Consumer

Liability, Liability, Liability

All Conditions Operation

Cyber Security

Infrastructure cost

Low Cost sensors

Ability to charge for new features

Technology licensing

Acceptance of Features

Reliability / Robustness

Updates / Upgrade strategy

Technology quickly outdated

Reliability

Real-time

processing

R&D investment size

Warranty

Willingness to Pay

Despite market interest, full automation must overcome issues in

liability, security, operation & obtain consumer acceptance

Challenges


Source: Ricardo


In autonomous cars, car sickness is probable due to inherent changes

in the way occupants interact with them; can influence their adoption

Source: UMTRI study, Coventry University study, Ricardo analysis

Car sickness, a form of motion sickness, is likely in autonomous vehicles because of key changes in occupant interaction with their surroundings when compared with a typical vehicle

– Absence of vehicle control – leads to discomfort and insecurity

– Engagement in non-driving tasks – leads to conflicts between visual and vestibular inputs

– New seating arrangements – lead to inability to anticipate direction of movement

Experiencing such symptoms can adversely affect adoption of autonomous vehicles

It may also compromise task performance or individual’s ability to perform safety-critical activities

Probable challenges with autonomous vehicles: Car sickness

A B C

A

B

C


EXAMPLE


Careful design enhancements in interiors can play a vital role in

minimizing car sickness felt by occupants in self-driving vehicles

Source: Ricardo analysis, various public domain articles and research papers

Counter-measures for car sickness: Interior design enhancements

Carefully designed interiors to avoid triggers of car sickness can be an important consideration in vehicle design

– Interiors that minimize conflicts between visual and physiological inputs

– Also, interiors that don’t affect, if not strengthen, the ability of occupant to anticipate what is coming

EXAMPLE

Counter-measure description:

1) Car sickness cause: What is the cause for car sickness? E.g.

rear facing seating

What is the medical cause?

E.g. discrepancy between physical

movement and visual/mental perception

2) Counter-measure(s): What counter measure(s) would minimize

car sickness for this particular cause?

What is the impact of each counter-measure

(strength of effect and sustainability)?

Ranking of counter-measures (importance)

3) Technology/design implications: What technology/design can support

counter-measure? E.g. flexible seating

concept „drive/lounge“

What technology/design examples exist in

the market? Selected examples,

technologies and outlook



Content



– Connected

– Autonomous

– Electric



New mobility business models such as Electric Vehicle rental

programs are starting to emerge as a result of strategic partnerships

Source: Hertz China, Ricardo analysis

First Chinese EV car

rental in Shanghai

Supporting deployment

of infrastructure in

Shanghai

Partnership between

Hertz, General Electric

and BYD

Priced lower than CE

vehicles

Key Observations

Service offering:

Full EV car rental program

Joint venture between Hertz and

GE Industrial Solutions China to install EV

infrastructure in greater Shanghai area

Program partnered with BYD (e6), plans to integrate

100 BYD vehicles into car fleet by 2012

Program will pilot in Jiading district of Shanghai

Aside of Shanghai, globally Hertz already

installed EV car-rental in 10 cities (e.g. London,

New York, Los Angeles) offering cars from BYD,

Smart, Mitsubishi, Renault, Nissan and Chevrolet

“China has committed to rapidly

expand electric vehicle travel and Hertz

is committed to supporting the

important EV Pilot City program”Chairman Mark Frissora

Example Shanghai: Hertz EV

Integrated mobility - Electric


DriveNow is car sharing service of BMW i, MINI & SIXT and is based on the motto “pick

up anywhere, drop off anywhere”

Launched in 2011 in Munich, it allows users to rent flexibly whenever & wherever they

need & currently operates c.4k cars in six countries worldwide & has c.500k customers

Features :

– One time fee for online registration, cars can be booked via app and can be

dropped off anywhere

– Costs for fuel, repairs, parking tickets, taxes & insurance are all included in the car

sharing rates and are charged per min

Promote modern mobility methods and help reduce

overall costs without bearing any fixed expenditures

Reduce CO2 emissions as compared to

conventional drive style

Enable users to pick a car according to the occasion

from fleet of BMW & MINI cars with option of

gasoline, electric engines

Enable users to keep the car only for the time they

drive it and drop it later

DriveNow operates in 9 cities in Europe & North

America; electric vehicles account for 20% of its fleet

Cancelled operations in San Francisco after 3 years

because of non-availability of parking spots

Berlin is still the biggest DriveNow city with c.170k

members having access to over 1000 vehicles

Option to pay in advance and buy minutes with no

time limit (rechargeable cards)

DriveNow – JV of BMW Group & SIXT SE has over 500k members

with c.90% in 5 German cities; c.4k vehicles offered with c.20% EVs

Business model overview

Situation and objective Results and benefits



smart eScooter

Scooter concept with electric drive

Tops speed 45 km/h

Brushless hub motor with performance of 4 kW

3.85 kWh Li-Ion battery

Reach of up to 100km

Charging time of 3-5 hours

smart-typical styling

Easy to get driving license, passenger car driving license

LED lights

Smartphone integration

Target markets: Europe, North America, Asia

Price: tbd

Market launch: post 2014

smart eBike

Pedelec-concept: supporting motor up tomax. 25 km/h

Brushless hub motor with performance of 250 W

Charging time of 2-3 hours

Recuparative braking

Ladezeit 2-3 Stunden

Rekuperatives Bremsen

smart-typical styling

Smartphone Integration

No driving license

LED lights

Ziel markets: Europe, North Amerika, Middle East

Price: ca. 2,900 Euro

Market launch: 2012

Source: smart, Ricardo analysis

eScooters and eBikes are expected to play a major role in urban

mobility concepts of the future – examples: smart, MINI, BMW



Content





Ricardo’s vision for the future is based on an integrated optimization

of transport, energy and resource systems

Future Transport system,

primarily electrified and

automated with integrated

personal and rapid transit

connected to high-speed

intercity links

Future Energy System

features centralized and

distributed renewable

sources via an intelligent

network with storage and

waste-heat utilization

Future Scarce Resource

use managed via a circular

economy with zero waste

and full re-use of critical

materials to new products

and/or energy and heat

Power to

Gas & Heat

Parking/Charging

Industry

Re-cycling/ Zero Waste

Landfill Mining Materials Recycle

Industry

Long Distance Transport

Fossil

Incinerator/CHP

Remote Charging

GPS, Gallileo &

Satellite

Comms

Platooning

Wind WaveSolar

Fusion Heat

& Power Hydro/Storage

Gas Storage

Urban Hubs

Biotech/

Algal Oils

Intercity

Cloud

processing

Ricardo‘s vision of future mobility


Mobility-on-demand (MoD) concepts may be required for integrated

mobility; would have strong impact on OEMs‘ business models

Mobility-on-Demand Pods

Convergence of Automotive, Consumer Electronics and Tele-Communications

Convergence of Public and Private Transport

Business Model Shift from Selling Cars (= Products) to Selling Mobility (= Services)

´Driver Age´ (Driver = Passenger) – from 8 to 80

Responsibility Shift away from Driver – New Insurance ModelsSource: Ricardo



Ownership

MoD-Pods designed as shared mobility concepts will complement

and partially replace traditional vehicles

MoD-Pod Small MoD-Pod Large Traditional Vehicles

Typical mission

profile

Typical product

attributes

Last mile transport, often inter-

modal with public transport

Short distances, typically

below 20 km

1-2 passengers with limited

cargo demand

Larger distances, still within

city and suburban limits

Small groups of passengers,

higher requirements for cargo

Wide range of distances

Wide range of mission profiles

Personalised transport

Urban, sub-urban, rural

Mini-car, 1-2 seats

Electric or low pollutant

emissions powertrain

High reliability, low

maintenance

Medium to large, 4+ seats

Electric or low pollutant

emissions powertrain

Comfort and infotainment

High reliability, low

maintenance

Wide range of bodystyle

options (hatchback, sedan,

SUV, convertible, etc.) and

sizes

Trend towards “individual-

lisation” and “premiumisation”

Shared mobility concept Shared mobility concept Personal ownership concept

Source: Ricardo



Conceptually, we see three different product / service worlds for

automotive OEMs to operate in this integrated vision

Urban Mobility

Service

Modern Multi-Purpose

Cars & Cross-Overs

Rugged All-Terrain

Vehicles

Ownership

Powertrain

Connectivity Level

Autonomous

Driving Level

Product versus

Service

Shared (and personal)

Low pollutant,

probably electric

High, embedded and

smartphone enabled

Target: Fully autonomous

(post 2030)

Mobility service

Personal

Gasoline,

Gasoline Hybrid

Medium to high, embedded

or smartphone enabled

Optional levels of

autonomous driving

Product with services

around it

Personal

Diesel,

(Diesel Mild Hybrid)

Low to medium, embedded

or smartphone enabled

Only limited driver

assistance functions

Product with services

around it


Source: Ricardo

Integrated Mobility - TNTDPCtntdpc.com/automotive-2017/Srihari Mulgund.pdf · 2017-03-20 ·...

Documents

Transcript of Integrated Mobility - TNTDPCtntdpc.com/automotive-2017/Srihari Mulgund.pdf · 2017-03-20 ·...