INTEGRATED DROUGHT RISK MANAGEMENT – DRMunesdoc.unesco.org/images/0022/002283/228343E.pdfJAU Joint...

1Integrated drought rIsk ManageMent - Iraq

INTEGRATED DROUGHT RISK MANAGEMENT – DRMNATIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR IRAQ

AN ANALySIS REpORT

Second editionMARcH 2014

SC/2014/REPORT/H/1

2 Integrated drought rIsk ManageMent - Iraq

REpORT TEAM

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)• dr. Andreas H. Lück (Head - Sector of natural Sciences)• LobnaFarahat(AdministrativeCoordinator)• Menahil Hannouna (Project Manager)

Joint Analysis Unit (JAU)• ValentinaOrrù(Socio-EconomicAnalyst)• BilalKiswani(Socio-EconomicAnalyst)• AlexBezrukov-Floyd(HeadOfAmmanOffice)• TaraAbdulmejid(CoordinationSpecialist)• carrie Schwartz (editor)• NoorIssa(GraphicDesigner)• NatalyRahil(Translator)


cONTENTSListofAcronyms ................................................................................................................................................ 6Foreword ....................................................................................................................................................... 8Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................................. 9Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 12

1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 151.1 What is drought? ......................................................................................................................... 161.2 Studyrationaleandjustification .................................................................................................. 181.3 Reportstructure .......................................................................................................................... 20

2. Study observations and limitations ............................................................................................................ 24

3. Methodology .............................................................................................................................................. 283.1 Initialdeskreviewandassessmentofexistingconditions .......................................................... 283.2 Meteorologicalanalysistoassessdroughtoccurrence ............................................................... 283.3 Developmentofdroughtindextoassessandanalysedroughtoccurrence ................................ 303.4 Assessmentofmulti-sectordroughtimpacts .............................................................................. 323.5 Proposedmeasuresfordroughtmitigation ................................................................................. 33

4. Findings and Discussion .............................................................................................................................. 364.1 Meteorologicalanalysis ............................................................................................................... 364.2 Water resources .......................................................................................................................... 644.3 Watersupplyandquality ............................................................................................................. 754.4 Droughteffectsonhealth ............................................................................................................ 794.5 Droughteffectsonpoverty,unemployment,andfoodsecurity .................................................. 854.6 Drought-inducedmigration ......................................................................................................... 924.7 HydropowerproductioninIraq ................................................................................................... 954.8 Droughteffectsonagribusinessandtheindustrialsector ........................................................ 101

5. Institutional Response .............................................................................................................................. 1105.1 Institutionalsetupasitrelatestodroughtmanagement .......................................................... 1105.2 Previousandongoingdroughtrelatedprojectsanddonor/lenderactivities ............................ 112

6. Proposed Measures to Reduce and Mitigate Drought Impacts ............................................................... 1306.1 ChallengesandconstraintsfordroughtmitigationinIraq ........................................................ 1306.2 Proposeddroughtmitigationmeasures .................................................................................... 1316.3 Droughtriskadaptation ............................................................................................................. 133

7. Conclusions and Recommendations ........................................................................................................ 1387.1 conclusions ................................................................................................................................ 1387.2 Recommendations ..................................................................................................................... 140

References ................................................................................................................................................... 143


FIgURES, MAPS, MAtRICES, AND tAblES

Figures1.1:Relationshipbetweendifferenttypesofdrought ........................................................................................................ 174:1:AnnualandmeanannualprecipitationinIraq ............................................................................................................. 384.2:Precipitationquantitydistributedbygovernorate ....................................................................................................... 384.3:Precipitationfive-yearmovingaverageinIraq ............................................................................................................. 394.4.A:AnnualandmeanannualairtemperatureinIraq ..................................................................................................... 414.4.B:Max,min,andmeanannualairtemperatureinIraq ................................................................................................ 414.5:Five-yearmovingaveragepergovernorateinIraq:A.Ninewa,B.Salahal-Din,C.Kirkuk,D.Anbar ............................ 424.6:Five-yearmovingaveragepergovernorateinIraq:A.Diyala,B.Baghdad,C.Kerbala,D.Babil .............................. 43-444.7:Five-yearmovingaveragepergovernorateinIraq:A.Wassit,B.Najaf,C.Qadissiya,D.Missan ............................ 44-454.8:Five-yearmovingaveragepergovernorateinIraq:A.Muthanna,B.Thi-Qar ......................................................... 45-464.9:Five-yearmovingaverageinBasrah ............................................................................................................................. 464.10:Numberofdayswithsuspendeddustintheair-Mosul ........................................................................................... 474.11:Numberofdayswithsuspendeddustintheair-Kirkuk............................................................................................ 474.12:Numberofdayswithsuspendeddustintheair-Najaf ............................................................................................. 484.13:AnnualandmeanannualprecipitationinKurdistanRegion ...................................................................................... 484.14:PrecipitationquantitydistributedbygovernorateinKurdistanRegion ..................................................................... 494.15:Precipitationfive-yearmovingaverageinKurdistanRegion ...................................................................................... 494.16:Five-yearmovingaveragepergovernorateinKurdistan:A.Erbil,B.Sulaymaniyah .................................................. 504.17:Five-yearmovingaveragepergovernorateinDahuk ................................................................................................. 504.18.A:3SPI,6SPI,and12SPIvaluesforIraq..................................................................................................................... 514.18.B:3SPI,6SPI,and12SPIprojectedvaluesforIraq .................................................................................................... 534.19.A:3SPI,6SPI,and12SPIvaluesforKurdistanRegion ................................................................................................ 544.19.B:3SPI,6SPI,and12SPIprojectedvaluesforKurdistanregion ................................................................................ 544.20:MajorreservoirsystemsoftheEuphrates-Tigriswatershed ...................................................................................... 654.21:Surfacewaterreceivedbysourcecountry(%) ........................................................................................................... 664.22:ChangeofflowforEuphratesandTigrisinmillioncubicmetres(MCM)overtime:A.Euphrates,B.Tigris .............. 674.23:TheshrinkingoftheQadissiyareservoirinIraqbetween7September2006and15September2009 .................... 684.24.A:WatervariationsinQadissiyareservoir................................................................................................................... 704.24.B:ExtensionofMarshlandsin2004,2008,2011 ........................................................................................................ 734.25:WaterqualityoftheEuphratesovertime .................................................................................................................. 754.26:Totalcasesofpneumoniabygovernorate(2004-2007) ............................................................................................. 804.27:Numberofcholeracasesinthemostaffectedgovernoratesduringoutbreaksin2007and2009 ............................ 824.28:Numberofcholeracasesinthemostaffectedgovernoratesduringthe2008outbreak ........................................... 824.29:Typhoidcasesbetween2007and2009bygovernorate ............................................................................................ 834.30:Numberoftransitionaldiseasestransmittedthroughcontaminatedwaterandfoodin2011-2012 ......................... 834.31:Percentageofthepopulationdrinkingwaterfromaprivatewell.............................................................................. 844.32:Householdswithnochlorineorchlorinelessthan0.5ppm ...................................................................................... 844.33:Employmentinagriculture,forestry,andfishery(%) ................................................................................................. 874.34:Unemploymentrate,2003-2008(%oftheactivepopulation) ................................................................................... 884.35:Foodproductionindex(1990-2011) ........................................................................................................................... 914.36:Ratiooffoodexportstofoodimports(2004-2011) ................................................................................................... 914.37:PercentageofIDPsdisplacedbywaterscarcity .......................................................................................................... 934.38:Trendinelectricityproductionfromhydroelectricsources(%oftotalproduction) .................................................. 954.39:Shareofelectricityproductionfromhydroelectricsourcesversusoilandgassources(%oftotalproduction) ........ 96


4.40:TrendsinprecipitationandhydroelectricproductioninKurdistanRegion ...................................................... 984.41:AnnualhydropowerproductioninKurdistanRegion(MWH,1997-2012)........................................................ 984.42:AnnualhydropowerproductionforSamarraandHamreendams(MWH,2008-2012) ................................. 1004.43:AnnualhydropowerproductionforHadithaandMosuldams(MWH,2008-2012) ....................................... 1004.44:ContributionofagriculturetoGDP(%) .......................................................................................................... 1014.45:Cropproductionchanges ............................................................................................................................... 1044.46:Cropproductiontrend(1990-2011) ............................................................................................................... 104

Maps1:MeteorologicalstationsacrossIraq ....................................................................................................................... 292:Distributionofthe42meteorologicalstationsincludedintheanalysis ............................................................... 363:Meanannualprecipitation .................................................................................................................................... 374:Meanannualtemperature ................................................................................................................................... 405-6:StandardPrecipitationIndexfortheyears2000(SPI12)and2006(SPI12) ...................................................... 587-8:StandardPrecipitationIndexfortheyears2006(SPI6)and2008(SPI6) .......................................................... 599-10:StandardPrecipitationIndexfortheyears2008(SPI12)and2009(SPI12) .................................................... 6011:VegetationcoverinIraq(January2009) .............................................................................................................. 6212:VegetationcoverinIraq(January2012) .............................................................................................................. 6213:Riversandsurfacewater ..................................................................................................................................... 6414: changes in Marshlands extension 1973-2011 ..................................................................................................... 7415:Populationwithaccesstoanimprovedsourceofdrinkingwater ....................................................................... 7716:Totalnumberofdiarrhoeacasesanddiarrhoeadeathsfortheyear2011 ......................................................... 8117:PopulationlivingbelowthepovertylineofUS$2.5perday .............................................................................. 8618:Fooddeprivation-districtlevel ........................................................................................................................... 8919:Prevalenceofvulnerabilitytofoodinsecuritybygovernorate ............................................................................ 9020:PercentageofIDPscitingdroughtasthemainreasonfordisplacement ............................................................ 9221:PercentageofIDPscitingdroughtasthemainreasonpreventingtheirreturntotheplaceoforigin ................ 9422:MainhydropowerstationsinIraq ....................................................................................................................... 9723:Percentageofcroplandaffectedbytheconsecutivedroughtsof2008and2009 ............................................ 103

Matrices1:DroughtseverityaccordingtoSPIvaluesforthe31-yearshistoricaldataforIraq ................................................ 562:DroughtseverityaccordingtoSPIvaluesforthe31-yearshistoricaldataforKurdistanRegion .......................... 57

tables1:VegetationcoverchangesbetweenJanuary2009andJanuary2012 ................................................................... 632:Numberofwellsbytypeofuseandgovernoratein2006 .................................................................................... 683:Availablewaterresourcesbyriverin2007 ............................................................................................................ 694:MajordamsandbarragesintheTigris-Euphratesbasin ....................................................................................... 715:Personsassessingavailabilityofdrinkingwateras“badorverybad”(%) ............................................................ 786:Transitionaldiseasestransmittedthroughcontaminatedwaterandfoodfortheyears2004-2012 .................... 807:MainhydropowerplantsinIraq ............................................................................................................................ 968:HydropowerproductionandSPIinIraq ................................................................................................................ 999:BarleyandwheatcultivationinIraq .................................................................................................................... 10210:Stateownedcompaniesaffectedbywaterscarcityintheindustrialsector ..................................................... 10611:Detaileddescriptionofthevariousministerialdepartmentsrelatedtodroughtmonitoringandmitigation... 11412:Selecteddroughtrelatedprojectsanddonor/lenderactivities ........................................................................ 120


LIST OF AcRONyMS

ANN ArtificialNeuralNetworksATON AutomatedTelemetricObservationNetworkCRIM CentrefortheRestorationoftheIraqiMarshlandsCBOs Community-BasedOrganizationCSO CentralStatisticalOrganisationDRM DroughtRiskManagementESCWA UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsiaEU EuropeanUnionFAO FoodandAgricultureOrganisationGAMS GeneralAuthorityforMeteorologicalandSeismicMonitoringGDP GrossDomesticProductGdWS General directorate for Water and SewerageGoI GovernmentofIraqGRACE GravityRecoveryandClimateExperimentGW GigaWattsIAU Inter-AgencyInformationandAnalysisUnitICARDA InternationalCenterforAgriculturalResearchinDryAreasICT InformationandCommunicationsTechnologyIDP InternallyDisplacedPersonIDRM IntegratedDroughtRiskManagementIWRM IntegratedWaterResourcesManagementIKN IraqKnowledgeNetworkIOM InternationalOrganizationofMigrationJAPU JointAnalysisandPolicyUnitJAU JointAnalysisUnitJICA JapanInternationalCooperationAgencyKR KurdistanRegionKRG KurdistanRegionalGovernmentKRSO KurdistanRegionStatisticalOfficeMAAT MeanAnnualAirTemperatureMAP MeanAnnualPrecipitationMAWR MinistryofAgricultureandWaterResources


McM Million cubic MetersMDGs MillenniumDevelopmentGoalsMoH MinistryofHealthMICS MultipleIndicatorClusterSurveyMMPW MinistryofMunicipalitiesandPublicWorksMoAWR MinistryofAgricultureandWaterResourcesMoB MayoraltyofBaghdadMoENV MinistryofEnvironmentMoMT MinistryofMunicipalitiesandTourismMoTC MinistryofTransportandCommunicationsMPA Meteo-MasterPlanApplicationNADIS NationalDroughtInformationSystemNGO Non-GovernmentalOrganizationNOPI NationalObservationProgrammeforIraqPDS PublicDistributionSystemRO ReverseOsmosisSMA SimpleMovingAverageSPI StandardPrecipitationIndexSVR SupportVectorRegressionSWi Standardized Water indexSWSI SurfaceWaterSupplyIndexTeWaRON TelemetricWaterResourcesObservationNetworkUNEP UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammeUNESCO UnitedNationsEducational,Scientific,andCulturalOrganizationUNICEF UnitedNationsChildren’sFundUNISDR UnitedNationsInternationalStrategyforDisasterReductionUSAID UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopmentWFP World Food ProgrammeWHO WorldHealthOrganisationWMO WorldMeteorologicalOrganizationWN WaveletNeuralNetworks


FOREWORD

Oneof Iraq’smain challenges ispreparedness – that is, “a stateof readiness” – to the increasing variability ofthe country’s climatic andmeteorological conditions, especially in terms of water supply irregularity, croplandreduction,andhealthassociatedwithdrought impacts.The impactofan increasedvariability inmeteorologicalconditions includes inabilitytostorewaterduringheavyrain,abandonmentofagricultural landduringdrought,anexacerbationofalreadydiminishingdischargerates in theperennial riversof Iraq, thealarmingtrendof theregressingMarshlands, loss of soil and hence, soil-fertility, and increasing salinization of the Shatt al-Arab andgroundwater potentials, notably in the south of the country. Visible symptoms of drought include a reductioninsurfacewaterflow, loweringofgroundwater levels,drying-upofopenshallowsurfacewells, increasingwatersalinityandsoilsalinization,progressingdesertification,decreaseinagriculturalproduction,growingfrequencyofduststormconditions,andanassociatedincreaseinrespiratoryinfections.

Droughtshaveledtodeteriorationoflivelihoodsandhealthforpeoplelivinginvulnerablecommunities.Deterioratingenvironmentalconditionswilllikelyleadtoanaggravationoftheabove.InsufficientaccesstopotablewaterandalackofpropersanitationinmanydistrictswillcontinuetoimposeagrowingchallengetotheIraqipeople,ifnotaddressed.Forexample,duringthedroughtfrom2007and2009,croplandthroughoutIraqexperiencedreducedcoverage,andlivestockwasdecimated.Thesituationin2009causedasignificantnumberofruralinhabitantstomoveinsearchofmoresustainableaccesstodrinkingwaterandlivelihoods.

Currently, Iraq is losing some 100,000 donum per annum of agriculture lands due to desertification and soilsalinization.TheMinistryofAgriculturehasindicatedthatbetween40-50%ofwhatusedtoserveasagriculturalland in the1970s isnowpronetodesertification.Twelveoutofeighteengovernorates in Iraqstatedtheyhaveexperienceddrought in thepast, andmostof themdonothave any actionplan inplace addressing adequateresponse,anymitigationmeasuresoradaptivestrategies.ItisexpectedthatsimilaroccurrencesinthefuturewillfurtherincreasethepressureontheGovernment’sinfrastructureandtheprovisionofbasicservices.

ThisscientificreviewassessesdroughtinIraq,includingthestatusofsectorknowledge,theavailabilityofdataandscientificevidence,andthegivenandpredictedvulnerabilitiesofIraqtowardstheoccurrenceofdrought,inthecontextof itsphysiographicandsocio-economicdimensions.ThereviewaimstofacilitatethedevelopmentofaNationalFrameworkforDroughtRiskManagementinIraqwiththelongertermgoalofreducingtheassociatedrisksfortheenvironmentandhumanity.

ThisispartofaseriesofscientificinvestigationscarriedoutbytheUNESCO Office IraqfortheconcernedgovernmentalauthoritiesofIraq,mandatedtoresponsiblyobserve,monitor,andappropriatelymanageenvironmentalissuesofnationalconcern.


AcKNOWLEDGMENTS

Thisanalysisreport,the“DroughtRiskManagement-DeskReview,DataMining,andMappingExercise”,isfundedbyUnitedNationsDevelopmentAssistanceFramework(UNDAF).ThereportfitswithintheframeworkofthejointUNESCO-UNDPProject“DevelopmentofaNationalFrameworkforIntegratedDroughtRiskManagement(DRM)inIraq”,whichisalsofundedbyUNDAF.Theprojectinvolvedthefollowingrelevantlineministriesandauthorities:thePrimeMinister’sAdvisoryCommission(PMAC)andtheMinistryofEnvironment(MoENV),incollaborationwiththeministries ofWater Resources (MoWR), Transport (MoT), Planning (MoP), Science and Technology (MoST),Agriculture(MoA),MunicipalitiesandPublicWorks(MMPW),Electricity(MoE),andHealth(MoH),aswellasthefollowing authorities in the Kurdistan Regional Government: theMinistry of Agriculture andWater Resources(MoAWR-KRG),theMinistryofTransport(MoT-KRG),theHigherCommitteeonEnvironment,andtheBureauoftourism.

The establishment, thematic structure, and compilation of this report was facilitated by the Sector of NaturalSciencesattheUNESCOOfficeIraq.UnderthesupervisionofUNESCO,JAUledthephasesofdataclassificationandpreparation,informationanalysis,productionofmapsandgraphs,aswellasthematicinformationprocessing,productionoffindings,reportconsolidation,editing,design,andtranslation.

ThereportgreatlybenefittedfromthecommittedandqualifiedeffortsoftheDroughtRiskManagement(DRM)steeringcommitteeandtaskforcememberswhoassistedintheprovisionofdataandcontributedtothediscussionsofthedraftreport.

OnbehalfofUNESCO,Iwouldliketoextendgratitudetoallconcernedministries,withspecialthankstotheMinistryofEnvironmentforfacilitatingthedatacollectionandengagingwiththeinvolvedpartners.UNESCOwishestothanktheteamworkingonNaturalScienceswithinUNESCOIraqOfficeforitscontinuedeffortsanddedication,namely,Mrs.LobnaFarahat,andMs.MenahilHannouna,aswellasourcolleagueswhowereinvolvedinearlierstagesoftheprocess.

1. INTRODUcTION1.1. WHAT IS DROUGHT?1.2. STUDy RATIONALE AND jUSTIFIcATION1.3. REpORT STRUcTURE


SUMMARy

AmongtheenvironmentalissuesfacedbyIraq,thegovernmenthasrecognizeddroughtasthemostseriousnaturaldisaster.1DroughtsinIraqareincreasinginseverityandfrequency–atrendthatislikelytocontinueandneedstobe addressed.

Droughtisdefinedastheconsequenceofaperiodoflowerthanexpectedorlowerthannormalprecipitationoveranextendedperiodoftime,whichleadstoawatershortageforcertainactivities,groups,orenvironmentalsectors.2 Theimpactofdroughtdependsontheinteractionbetweenalackofprecipitation,demandforwater,andhumanactivitiesthatmayexacerbateitsimpacts.

InIraq,mainlyduetothelackofmeteorologicalinformation,droughtisonlybeassessedafterithasalreadyproducedits effects. Inorder to support the formulationof an integratedDroughtRiskManagement (DRM)programme,UNESCO Iraqand the JointAnalysisUnit (JAU)assessed the informationavailableondroughtandanalysed theseverityandtrendofdroughtanditsimpactonkeysectorsandpopulationgroups.Basedontheavailabledataonprecipitation,thestudyintroducedthefirstdroughtindexindicatorinIraq,theStandardPrecipitationIndex(SPI),toassessdroughtpatternsacrossthecountry, topredict futuredroughtepisodes,andto identifytheareasthemostvulnerabletodrought.TheSPIwillhelpthegovernmenttoimproveitscapacityandperformanceindroughtmonitoring,toformulatestrategiesandpoliciesfordroughtpreparednessplanningprograms,andtoreducetherisksoffuturedroughtevents.

Thebiggest challenge facedby this study relates to the collectionof thenecessary information to conduct theanalysis.Therelevantinformation,especiallymeteorologicaldata,waslimitedinquantityandvariableinquality.Almostall informationderivedfromofficialsourcescontaineddiscrepancies,andpublicationsdifferedfromonetothenext.Thisappliedforallsectorsdiscussedinthestudy.Datagapsandlimitationsaffectedthequalityoftheassessmentofdroughtimpactsonwaterresources,health,hydropowergeneration,andagriculture.

The study covers 42 meteorological stations across Iraq, chosen according to their geographical distributionacross Iraqandaccording todataaccuracyandavailability.Theanalysispresents the trend inprecipitationandtemperatureforIraqforthelast31years,identifyingthedifferencesamonggovernorates.TheSPI,calculatedforeachgovernorate toassess the temporaland spatial characteristicsofdroughts, allows for the identificationofdroughtproneareasacrossthecountry.Themeteorologicalanalysisconductedfortheperiod1980-2011showsameanannualprecipitationequalto207mmandameanannualairtemperatureof23.0oC.ThegovernoratesofKerbala,Babil,Najaf,andMuthannareceivedtheminimumamountofprecipitationwhileSulaymaniyahandDahukexperiencedthehighestprecipitationlevels.Rega rd l e s s o f differencesinthetrendacrossgovernoratesduringthereferenceperiod,allgovernoratesexperiencedareductioninprecipitationthroughoutthelastdecadewhenseveredroughtsaffectedthewholecountry.Almostallgovernoratesareconsidereddroughtproneareas;someofthemarecurrentlyexperiencingdrought,whileothersareconsideredhighlyvulnerabletoit.the SPi calculated for eachgovernorateshowsthattheseverityofdroughtinIraqhasworsenedsignificantlyduringthepast12years.Fourevidentdroughtstookplacein2000,2006,2008,and2009.Elevengovernorateswereaffectedbydroughtattheendof2008.ThehighestdroughtmagnitudeswereidentifiedinthegovernoratesofNinewa,Kirkuk,Basrah,Babil,andDiyala.ThepredictedvaluesoftheSPIindicatethatmoderatetoseveredroughtsareexpectedatcertainlocationsstartingfrom2017-2026.Incontrast,thepredictedSPIfortheKurdistanRegionshowsthattheregionisnotexpectedtoexperiencenoticeabledroughts.

1 The Government of Iraq (GoI) and the High Level Committee for Disaster Risk Reduction (HLCDRR) as cited in: United Nations-Iraq UNDAF Fund Joint Programme. Available online at http://mdtf.undp.org/document/download/7152 (accessed 1 November 2012).2 United Nations Economic Commission for Western Asia (UNESCWA). (2005). Water Development Report 1 - Vulnerability of the Region to Socio-Economic Drought. New York: UNESCWA.

http://mdtf.undp.org/document/download/7152


The analysis confirmed that the current annual flow of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers into Iraq has droppeddramaticallyduringthepastyears.Droughtisidentifiedasoneofthefactorsresponsibleforthisdecrease.Takingintoaccountthepredictedreductioninprecipitation,afurtherdeclineinthewaterlevelsoftheTigrisandEuphratesisexpectedinthecomingyears.Groundwateralsoexperiencedadeclineinquantityandanincreaseinsalinity.Thedatashowaseasonalfluctuationoftotalwaterstorageandanoveralldownwardtrend,suggestingthatgroundwaterisbeingusedfasterthannaturalprocessescanreplenish it.Groundwater levelsareexpectedtodecreaseduetoforeseeabledroughts.Furthermore,thefutureoftheIraqiMarshlandsanditsinhabitantsstrictlydependsontheavailabilityofwater.Inthelastdecade,droughtsreducedthesizeofthemarshestothesameareatheyoccupiedin2003neutralizingtheeffortmadebythegovernmenttorestoretheMarshlandsto75%oftheiroriginalsize.

Thedecreaseinwaterresourcescontributestodeteriorationinwaterquality.Largeevaporationlosses,duetotheincreasingtemperatureassociatedwiththedissolutionofsaltsfromthesoils,contributetotheincreaseinsalinityoftheriverwater.Theselosseshindertheuseofwaterevenforirrigationpurposes.Since2001,theconcentrationofdissolvedsolidshasincreasedtoexceedtheupperpermissiblelimitgivenbytheWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)standardof1,500mg/l.

Theworseningofwaterqualityhastheconsequenceofincreasingtheriskofwaterbornediseases,suchasdiarrhoea,cholera, typhoid,anddifferent formsofhepatitis.Moreover, thedustyanddryconditionsandtheoccurrenceofwildfires irritatehumanairways and lungs resulting in chronic respiratory illnesses.According to theMinistry ofHealth,thehighestnumberofdiseasestransmittedthroughcontaminatedwaterandfoodwereregisteredbetweentheyears2007and2010,duringthemostseveredroughtsthataffectedthecountryinthelastdecade.

Droughthastheeffectofslowingdownthedevelopmentprocessfortheentirecountry.Resourcesdesignatedtoreducepovertyor implementdevelopmentprogrammesneed tobe reallocated tofinanceemergency reliefandhumanitarianactivities. Ingeneral,people living inruralareaswhose incomedependsonagricultureproduction,livestock,forestry,andfisheryarethemostvulnerabletotheeffectsofdroughtandthemostexposedtotheriskofpovertyandfoodinsecurity.Ashockinagriculturalproductionduetodroughtcouldleadtoanassociatedlossofjobsinthesector.Ingovernoratescharacterizedbyahighdependenceonagriculturalproductionandwithhigherunemploymentrates,droughts increasethevulnerabilityofthepopulations,especiallyfordisadvantagedgroups,suchaswomen,illiteratepersons,orpersonswithlowereducationlevels,forwhomemploymentopportunitiesarealreadylow.

Protracted periods of drought and their effects are among the reasons for population movementsin Iraq. Water-related migration registered an increasing trend in the last few years. BetweenDecember 2007 and June 2009, 4,263 families (25,578 individuals) were displaced due todrought in Iraq, with more than 80% from the governorates of Salah al-Din and Ninewa.3

Drought,water salinity,andpollutionarealsoamong themajor factorspreventing IDPs fromreturning to theiroriginalcommunities.Many IDPsmove fromdryzones toareaswith improvedwateravailability, suchascities,whichleadstoabandonofruralareasandaworseningoflivingconditionsinurbanzones.

Thedeclineinprecipitationexpectedinfutureyearsandtherelatedreductioninwateravailabilityisexpectedtoaffect hydroelectric production in the country. As a consequence, higher shares of electricity productionwill bederived fromoil andgas sources to replace the capacity lostby thehydropowerplants. Therefore, in adroughtscenarioanincreaseinCO2emissionsisexpectedtocreateadditionalenvironmentalissues.TheanalysisconfirmedthatthereductioninthetotalannualhydroelectricproductioninMWhinKurdistanRegionfrom1997to2012clearlyalignswiththefallinprecipitationobservedduringthesameyears.

3 International Organization for Migration (IOM). (2010). Iraq Mission, Iraq Displacement Reports Special Focus - Water Scarcity, September 2010. Available online at: http://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/iom-iraq-displacement-reports-special-focus-water-scarcity-september-201

http://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/iom-iraq-displacement-reports-special-focus-water-scarcity-september-201


Recurrentdroughtsduringthe lastdecadeseverelyaffectedtheagriculturalsectorwithrelevantdamagetotheproductionofbothrainfedandirrigatedcrops.Thedroughtthataffectedthecountryinthetwoconsecutiveyears,2008and2009,damagedalmost40%ofthecroplandinthecountryespeciallyinthenortherngovernorates.From2005and2009,variouscropssufferedasharpreductioninthetotalextensionofcultivatedarea.

Iraq responds to drought mainly with a “disaster management” approach, rather than “risk management”. Adisastermanagementapproachrespondstotheproblemonlyafteritoccurs,whileariskmanagementapproachaims to reduce vulnerability to disasters. Some keyministries are involved with drought and its managementthroughthedevelopmentofmitigationandactionplans,planstocombatdesertification,anddatacollectionandanalysis.However,itwouldbeidealifnationalandregionalinstitutionstomanagedroughtwereestablishedandfullyoperational.

Duetotheseverechallengesfacedbythecountryinthepastdecades,Iraqlacksanearlywarningsystemaswellas drought indicators, mainly due to lack of accurate data recorded on precipitation, temperature, and othermeteorologicalphenomena.Thereisaneedforimprovedhumancapacityandtools,aswellasacomprehensivenationalstrategyandnationalearlywarningsystemconnectedtoitsinternationalcounterpart.Althoughvariousagencieshaveimplementedcampaignsrelatedtoawarenessonwaterefficientuse,environmentalconservation,anddesertification,theirimpactshaveyettobequantified.Inaddition,theabsenceofmeteringandextremelowtariffshasresultedininefficientuseofwater.Basedontheresultsoftheanalysisandthecurrentgovernmentalresponsetodrought,thereportrecommendsthefollowingactions:

• PrioritizethedevelopmentofamasterplanforNaturalResourcesandDroughtManagement.• establish anearlywarningsystemandimprovethecurrentmeteorologicalsystem.Theimpacts

ofdroughtareakeyindicatorofthecountry’svulnerability,andtheirproperdocumentationis critical to identifying themost affected sectors and to devise and implementmitigationmeasuresaimedatreducingthoseeffects.

• Improveunderstandingof thedefinitionofdrought,howtomonitor it,andhowtopredictitonascientificbasisinordertoshapeaproperdroughtmanagementplan.Simplifyingthisinformationwill encourage the development of useful drought indicators and indexes andbetterrepresentthedroughtseverityacrossthecountry.

• Effectivelyusemeteorologicaldataandforecasts,throughearlywarningsystems,toevaluatethe impacts of climate change andmitigate its effects on agricultural production and foodsecurity.

• Implementadaptivemeasures toclimatechangeanddrought to reducevulnerabilitiesandadverse consequences. Successful adaptive measures require actions to be taken at thenationalandcommunitylevels.

• CreatepublicawarenessaboutdroughtinIraqandeducatethepublicabouttheefficientuseof water through media.

• Adoptmoreefficientwatermanagementandirrigationpracticessuchasdripirrigation,anddevelopcropsmoreresistanttodifficultweatherconditions.

• Complementthesemeasureswitheffectivewaterconservationandwatershedmanagementactivities.


1. INTRODUcTIONIraq,withapopulationofmorethan34million4,bordersSyriatothenorthwest,Turkeytothenorth,Irantotheeast,Jordantothesouthwest,andKuwaitandSaudiArabiatothesouth.SituatedacrosstheTigrisandEuphratesrivers,IraqoccupiestodaywhatwasonceancientMesopotamia,theareareferredtoas‘thecradleofcivilization’.Ofitstotalareaof435,052km2,asignificantproportionisaridandsemi-aridlandwithlowanderraticprecipitation.

Typically,90% ofIraq’sannualprecipitationoccursbetweenNovemberandApril,withmostofitinthewintermonthsfrom december through March.5Theremainingsixmonthsaredry,particularlythehottestonesofJune,July,andAugust.6ThecombinationofrainshortageandextremeheatqualifiesmuchofIraqasadesert.Becauseofhighratesofevaporation,soilandplantsrapidlylosethelittlemoistureobtainedfromtherain;thus,vegetationcannotsurvivewithoutextensive irrigation. Twomajor rivers, theTigris andEuphrates,provide Iraqwithagriculturallycapableland.7Accordingly,thevalleybetweenthetworiversisthemainagriculturalsourcefortheIraqisanditssustainability isdirectlyrelatedtothefoodsecurity inIraq,whichis increasinglybecomingamajorchallengetogreengrowthinthecountry.

Duetodifficultpoliticalandsecuritychallengesanddecadesofconflict, Iraq’senvironmenthassufferedgreatlyfrompoor strategies onpollution and resourcemanagement. Consequently, the country is exposed to a rangeofenvironmentalissues,includingdrought,desertification,andincreasingsoilsalinity,amongothers.AgricultureaccountsforthevastmajorityofwaterconsumptioninIraq,withdrawingabout92%oftotalfreshwaterforirrigationandfoodproduction.8Inthisregard,availabilityofwaterforagriculture,industry,andhouseholdsuppliesisamajorissue in Iraq. Recently, thequality andquantityof the country’swater supply has been impactedby upstreamdamming,pollution,climatechange,andinefficientuse.Therefore,theamountofwateravailableperpersonperyeardecreasedfrom5,900cubicmetersto2,400cubicmetersbetween1977and2009.9

Furthermore, thedrought issue is a burden todevelopment in Iraq. Since2006,manyparts of Iraqhavebeenaffectedbydroughts.Inparticular,between2007and2010,Iraqsufferedanintensedroughtthatdevastateditsagriculturalproduction.MaincropsproducedinIraqsuchasdates,rice,andothergrainswerenotabletobegrownbecausetheEuphratesRiverransofarbelowcapacity.Thefishingindustryalsosuffered.Inaddition,themarshesinIraqbecameatrisk,causingharmtotheecosystem.Duringtheperiodofdrought,groundwaterlevelsintheregiondropped;over-useofwaterhaspreventedthoselevelsfromrecovering.

Droughtfurtherexacerbatedalreadydecreasingwatersuppliesbetween2005and2009,devastatingagricultureandcausingdrinkingwatershortages,particularlyinruralareas.Around39%ofcroplandsufferedareductionincoveragebetween2007and2009,andlivestockwasdecimated.10Moreover,a2009UNreportdeclaredthattheTigrisandEuphratesriverscouldcompletelydryupby2040becauseofthecompoundedeffectofclimatechange,reducedupstreamsupply,andincreaseindomesticandindustrialuse,11imposingfurtherchallengesonthecountrynatural resources.

4 Central Statistical Organization (CSO). 5 Al-Musaed, A., et al. (2005). Shading Effects upon Cooling House Strategy in Iraq. Paper presented at the 2nd PALENC Conference and 28th AIVC Conference on Building Low Energy Cooling and Advanced Ventilation Technologies in the 21st Century. Crete Island, Greece.6 Ibid.7 United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP). (2006). Iraqi Marshlands Observation System, Technical Report. Available online at: http://www.unep.org (ac-cessed 1 March 2013).8 Al-Obaidy, A. (2013). The Challenges of Water Sustainability in Iraq. Eng. & Tech. Journal, vol. 31, Part (A), No. 5.9 Ibid.10 Al-Obaidy, A. (2013). 11 United Nations-Iraq. (2009). United Nations Supplementary Country Analysis for Iraq Thematic Working Group on Essential Services. Available online at:http://www.japuiraq.org/reports/CLEAN%20IQ%20Essential%20Services%20TWG%20Report%2031%20Aug%20-%20FINAL%20VERSION%20-%20AD%20EDITS.docx

http://www.unep.org

http://www.japuiraq.org/reports/CLEAN%20IQ%20Essential%20Services%20TWG%20Report%2031%20Aug%20-%20FINAL%20VERSION%20-%20


In addition to drought, desertification is one of the greatest problems related to development and theenvironmentinIraq.Theprocessoffertilelandtransformingintoadeserttriggersaviciouscircleofenvironmentaldegradation, impoverishment,migration, and conflicts, often also putting the political stability of Iraq at risk.12

Environmentallossesresultfromdamagetoplantandanimalspecies.Wildlifehabitatandairandwaterqualityaredamagedduetoalackofwaterandanincreaseinforestandrangefires.Mosteffectsofdroughtareshort-term,andasthedroughtends,manyproblemsaresolved.However,othereffectsmaylimitthearea’sdevelopmentforlongperiodsafterthedroughtisover.Forexample,wildlifehabitatmayberuinedthroughthelossofwetlands,lakes,andvegetation.Somespeciesofanimalsmaybewipedoutfromtheareaaswell.

In terms of responding to drought, historically, the Government of Iraq (GoI) offered drinking water tanks forcommunities affected by drought.When the country had oil revenue surpluses, it would offer seed, fertilizer,agricultural equipment, and crop loss settlements. However, little effort was undertaken to create mitigatingmeasurestocountertheeffectsofcyclicaldroughtepisodes.Noformalplanwasset inplace,withonlyadhocmeasures initiated. Currently, at theprovincial and regional levels, the governor addresses natural disasters byformingdisasterresponsecommitteestodefineappropriateactiontodeliverhumanitarianreliefandsupportanyreconstructionorrehabilitationinitiatives.

Currently,theKurdistanRegionalGovernment(KRG)hasnoplansforrespondingtodisasterswhilesomeregionshaveestablishedEmergencyResponseCells.Moreover,adverseimpactsareworsethaninpreviousyears,particularlydue to the following:

• Low levels of precipitation (including rain and snow), resulting in decreased levels ofgroundwater,decreasedriverflows,drying-upofwatersources(springsaswellasdeepandshallowwells);

• Inadequatemanagementofwaterresourcesbytheauthorities,communities,andfarmers;• Increasesinpopulation,especiallyinurbancentres;• Lackofappropriatecontroland/ormanagementofmainwatersourcesandunavailabilityof

longer-termstrategicwaterprojects;• Lackofalong-term,comprehensivestrategytocombattheimpactofdrought.

1.1. WHAT IS DROUGHT?Droughtisacommoneventthatoccursinvariousclimatesonearth.Itisoftenassociatedwithhightemperaturesandlowmoisturelevels,whichhaveoccurredmorefrequentlyinrecentyears,andthusitisoftenassociatedwithclimatechange.Auniversallyrecognizeddefinitionofdroughtisnoteasily identifiedbecausethecharacteristicsof drought differ among regions. Drought effects also differ notably between locations due to differences inprecipitationpatterns,humanresilience,andinstitutionalresponses.Althoughdroughtisconsideredatemporaryphenomenon(unlikearidity),droughtusuallyinvolvesabroadregionaffectingalargeproportionofthepopulationandcausingdisastroussocio-economiceffects.13Forthisreason,theInter-AgencySecretariatoftheUnitedNationsInternationalStrategyforDisasterReduction(UNISDR)definesdroughtasoneofthemajorthreatsamongnaturalhazardstopeople’slivelihoodandsocio-economicdevelopment.

12 Al-Obaidy, A. (2013). 13 United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). (2009). Drought Risk Reduction Framework and Practices: Contributing to the Imple-mentation of the Hyogo Framework for Action. Geneva: UNISDR. In Africa for example, drought disasters represents less than 20% of all disaster occurrences, but they account for more than 80% of all people affected by natural disasters.

Definition of drought as suggested during a workshop held in Amman, Jordan, August 2012:

“Shortage of water supply and precipitation to the extent of limiting agricultural production, which is leading to the level being insufficient to fulfill human, industrial, health, and environmental water requirements.”


Droughtcanbedefinedastheconsequenceofaperiodoflowerthanexpectedorlowerthannormalprecipitationover an extended period of time leading to a water shortage for some activities, groups, and environmentalsectors.14Besideslowprecipitationlevels,theoccurrenceofdroughtresultsfromevaporation,whichisaffectedbytemperature,wind,vegetation,typeofsoilanditscapacitytostorewater,aswellasthepresenceofgroundwatersupply. Theharshness of drought is also affectedby increasing pressureonwater supply sources due to risingdemandforwaterfromirrigation, industry,anddomesticuse,whichis increasingasconsequenceofpopulationgrowth.

Classification of droughtTheliteraturecommonlyclassifiesdroughtinfourcategories:

1. Meteorological2. Agricultural3. Hydrological4. Socio-economic

Whilemeteorologicaldroughtmainlyreferstoalackofprecipitation,theothertypesemphasizethehumanandsocialaspectsofdroughtaswellastherelationbetweenthecharacteristicsofmeteorologicaldroughtandhumanactivities.

Meteorological droughtresultsfromclimaticcauses,whichdifferamongregions.Itisthefirstkindofdroughtthatoccurs,anditischaracterizedbyadeficiencyofprecipitationcomparedtothenormalorexpectedleveloveranextendedperiodoftime.Thecommonthreshold identifiedbytheWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)isaprecipitation level lower than75%of thenormalprecipitationwhile thedurationperiodcanvaryby locationaccordingtouserneedsandapplication.15

FIgURE 1.1: RElAtIONShIP bEtwEEN DIFFERENt tyPES OF DROUght

14 UNESCWA. (2005).15 World Meteorological Organization (WMO). (2006). Drought Monitoring and early warning: concepts, progress and future challenges. Geneva: WMO.

Environmental impactsSocial impactsEconomic impacts

Reduced Stream �ow, in�ow to reservoirs, lakes and

ponds; reduced wetlands wildlife habitat

Soil water de�ciency

Plant water stress, reduced biomass and yield

Increased evaporation and transpiration

Reduced in�ltration, runo� deep percolation and

groundwater recharge

Precipitation de�ciency (amount, intensity, timing)

Natural Climate Variability

High temperatures, high winds, low relative humidity, greater

sunshine, less cloud cover

Tim

e (d

urat

ion)

Hyd

rolo

gica

l dr

ough

tAg

ricul

tura

l dr

ough

tM

eteo

rolo

gica

l dr

ough

t

SOURCE:WORLDMETEOROLOGICALORGANIzATION,2006


Agricultural droughtisnormallytheresultofdryandhotperiodsoflowprecipitationthatreducetheavailabilityof soilwater for cropand forageproduction. The lackofmoistureduring thegrowing season causeswitheringandextremestressforcrops.However,agriculturaldroughtcanoccurevenwithoutashortageinprecipitationifagriculturaltechniquesandsoilconditionsrequireadditionalwater.

Hydrological drought isassociatedwithadeficiencyofsurfaceorsubsurfacewaterduetoashortfallinprecipitation.16

Although all droughts originate from deficiencies in precipitation, hydrological drought can occur even duringperiodsofnormalprecipitationduetohighwaterdemand.Hydrologicaldrought ismainlyconcernedwithhowthisdeficiencyaffectscomponentsofthehydrologicalsystemsuchassoilmoisture,streamflow,groundwater,andreservoirlevelsamongothersystems.

Socio-economicdroughtisrecognizedandclassifiedindependentlyfromtheothertypesofdroughtbytheUnitedNationsInternationalStrategyforDisasterReduction(UNISDR)andtheWorldMeteorologicalOrganisation(WMO).17 Thedefinitionunderlinesthelinkbetweensupplyanddemand,wherethedemandforaneconomicgoodexceedssupplybecauseofaweather-relatedshortfall inwater supply.As resultofwater-related issues,water supply isnotenough tomeet thedemand for somecommoditiesoreconomicgoodssuchaswater, livestock, forage,orhydroelectricpower.

1.2. STUDy RATIONALE AND jUSTIFIcATIONdrought producesalargenumberofimpactsthataffectsocial,environmental,andeconomicstandardsofliving.Itsimpactspreadsfarbeyondthephysicaleffectsofdroughtitself.Somedirectimpactsofdroughtare:reducedcrop,rangeland,and forestproductivity; reducedwater levels; increasedfirehazards; increased livestockandwildlifemortality rates;anddamagetowildlifeandfishhabitats.Areduction incropproductivityusually results in lessincomeforfarmers,increasedfoodprices,unemployment,andmigration.

InIraq,variousinternalfactorsaccountforareductioninavailablewateranditspoorquality.Theseinternalfactors,whichhavedevastatingeffectsonIraq’senvironment,resultfromthefollowingpractices,amongothers:

• Lackofdomesticwaterusage regulationsand/or lackofanenforcementpolicy forexistingregulations;

• Lack of a national droughtmonitoring index, to set the guidelines for passing regulationsregarding drought monitoring and mitigation as well as water-related practices affectingsurfaceandgroundwater;

• Lack of public awareness as well as the absence of effective educational and awarenesscampaigns to build the knowledge base of the public about responsible water usage anddroughtpreparedness;

• Useofold techniquesandpractices in farming irrigation (forexample,flooding rather thanusingdripirrigationorcontrolledsprinklersystems);

• Lackofassistance/demonstration/incentiveprogrammesthatencourageandpromotewaterconservation/protectionpractices.

16 UNISDR. (2009).17 WMO. (2006).


Althoughtheimpactofdroughtonsocietyandagricultureisregardedasasignificantissue,itisnoteasilyquantified. Reliableindicesarenecessarytodetectthespatialandtemporaldimensionsofdroughtoccurrenceandintensity. Thesedimensionshelptoassessdroughtimpactsandalsoassistdecision-makerswiththeformulationofprioritiesfordroughtalleviation.18

DuetothechallengesfacingIraq,assessmentsofdroughtareonlycarriedoutaftertherainyseasonends(i.e.,aftertheproblemhasoccurred).Therefore,todate,the government does not have any indicators related to drought and climate change to form early warnings of drought occurrence,evenwithalowlevelofaccuracyusingthedatathatarecollectedbythevariousgovernmentalagenciesonprecipitationandclimate.Accordingly,andaspartoftheeffortsoftheDevelopmentofaNationalFrameworkforIntegratedDroughtRiskManagement(DRM),JAU,inpartnershipwithUNESCO,preparedanintegrateddroughtriskmanagement(DRM)analysisreportthatprovidesanationalframeworkforDRMinIraq.

ThisstudyaimstoassesstheavailableinformationondroughtinIraqandanalysetheseverityandtrendofdroughtanditsimpactonkeysectorsandpopulationgroups.Thisincludesdefiningstakeholdersandinformationgaps.Inthisregard,thestudyanalysedthespatial-temporalpatternofdroughtbyemployingtheStandardPrecipitationIndex(SPI)anddeterminedtheoccurrenceofdroughtwithinthehistoricalrecordofprecipitationdata.Specifically,thestudyfocusedonthefollowingareas:

• Assessingandanalysingdroughtoccurrence in Iraqbymeansof theStandardPrecipitationIndex(SPI);

• Identifyingandlocatingdroughtproneareasinthecountry;• Identifying the multi-sector impacts of drought on various environmental-socio-economic

sectorsacrossthecountry.

Theoutcomesof thisworkprovide themeaningfulandunderstandable informationabout the spatial-temporalaspect of the drought in Iraq for concerned relevant bodies (governmental entities, ministries, environmentalorganizations,andotherentities).Thiskindofinformationisessentialforabroadgroupofstakeholderswhoareinterestedindroughtmonitoring,mitigation,andmanagement.

Furthermore,the study introduced the first drought indicator index in Iraq.TheStandardPrecipitationIndex(SPI)is used to assess drought patterns across the country in order to help the government improve its capacity andperformanceindroughtmonitoring.TheSPIisasimpler,moreflexiblemeasuredesignedtopresenttheincrementalprecipitationdeficitand thesourceofdroughtbasedsolelyon theprobabilityofprecipitation foragiventimeofperiod.Beingthefirstofitskindinthecountry,theindexwillhelpIraqformulatestrategiesandpoliciesfordroughtpreparednessplanningprogrammestosupportthegovernment—atalllevels—toreducetherisksoffuturedroughtevents.Moreover,itwillhelpthegovernmenttopreparemonitoringmeasuresandprogrammestoenableconcernedbodiestoexaminethepotentialforimproveddroughtpredictionsinthenearfuture.Therefore,governmentinstitutionscanplantheiractivities,improvetheirinfrastructure,andanticipatetheeffectsofadverseconditionsontheagricultureandontheecosystematalongrun.Ontopofthat,theSPIwillberegardedasabenchmarkindicator,whichwillthenbeused/modifiedasareferenceorabaselinefordroughtimpactassessmentstobeconductedinthecomingyears.

18 Seiler, R., Kogan, F., & Sullivan, J. (1998). AVHRR-based vegetation and temperature condition indices for drought detection in Argentina Remote Sensing: Inver-sion Problems and Natural Hazards. Advances in Space Research, 21(3): 481-484.


1.3 REpORT STRUcTURE 1.3 Report structurethis report is comprised of the following sections:

Section1 IntroductiontothestudySection2 StudyobservationsandlimitationsSection3 StudymethodologySection4 StudymainfindingsanddiscussionSection5 InstitutionalresponseSection6 ProposedmeasurestoreduceandmitigatedroughtimpactsSection7 Studyconclusionsandrecommendations


STUDy ObSERvAtIONS

AND LIMITATIONS

STUDy METHODOLOGy

STUDy MAIN FINDINGS AND

DIScUSSION

INSTITUTIONAL RESpONSE

pROpOSED MEASURES TO REDUcE

AND MITIGATE DROUGHT

IMpAcTS

INTRODUcTION

SEcTION 2

SEcTION 5

SEcTION 6

SEcTION 7

SEcTION 3

SEcTION 4

SEcTION 1

STUDy cONcLUSIONS AND

REcOMMENDATIONS SEcTION 7


2. StUDy ObSERvAtIONS AND lIMItAtIONS


2. StUDy ObSERvAtIONS AND lIMItAtIONS Thefirststeptowarddroughtpreparednessandmitigationeffortsinaparticularcountryisthepresenceofastabledatagatheringnetworkandmechanismenablingthegovernmentandotherstakeholderstogatherupdatedandaccurateinformationonclimatologicalanddroughtindicators.Themechanismmustmeetinternationallyhighstandards,whichincludehavingthecapacitytomeasureandforecastdroughtepisodes,thepresenceofanearlywarningsystem,andtheexistenceofmulti-sectorpartnershipstomeasuredroughtimpactanddelivermitigationplans.

Thisreportbenefitedfromgovernmenteffortsandcollaborationtoprovidedataondroughtanditsimpact,whichenabled thepresent analysis. Consequently, the study involveda closeexaminationof thepresent informationgatheringsystemaswellasgovernmentcapacitytoundertakethistask.

Thissectionpresentskeychallengesfacingtheanalysisofdrought.Theseareidentifiedasareasneedinginterventiontoimprovethegovernment’sabilitytomonitordroughtandmitigateitsnegativeconsequences.Aseparatesectionisgearedtowardrevisingtheinstitutionalstructureofthegovernment.

ThisstudywasdifficulttocarryoutsincecurrentinformationinIraqislimitedinquantity,variableinquality,anddoesnotaddressmanyimportantaspects.Thisisparticularlytrueofinformationconcernedwithmeteorologicaland climatological data, aswell as data onwater, health, and socio-economic behaviour. A reviewof historicaldocumentsrevealedcertaindatagapsasitpertainstothecompletenessofinformationneededtoascertainthebreadthandextentofdroughtandwatershortageacrossIraq.


3. METHODOLOGy3.1. INItIAl DESk REvIEw AND ASSESSMENt OF ExIStINg CONDItIONS3.2. METEOROLOGIcAL ANALySIS TO ASSESS DROUGHT OccURRENcE 3.3. DEvElOPMENt OF DROUght INDEx tO ASSESS AND ANAlySE DROUght OCCURRENCE 3.4. ASSESSMENt OF MUltI-SECtOR DROUght IMPACtS 3.5. pROpOSED MEASURES FOR DROUGHT MITIGATION


3. METHODOLOGyThisreportassessesthedroughtphenomenoninIraqandevaluatesitsspread,severity,andtrends.AthoroughanalysisisadoptedtoinvestigatewatershortageandevaluatetheimpactsofdroughtinIraqonvarioussectors.Theresultsoftheanalysisareillustratedbyindicatorsandsimplifiedusingmapsandvisualstobettercaptureforreportfindingsandrecommendations. Inadditiontothesectoralanalysis,a linkbetweendrought,poverty,anddevelopmentisinvestigated.Thetasksundertakentoconductthisstudyarepresentedbelow.

3.1. INItIAl DESk REvIEw AND ASSESSMENt OF ExIStINg CONDItIONSUNESCO,incollaborationwithJAU,conductedanextensivedeskandliteraturereviewofallwork,data,andreportsthathavealready takenplace regardingwater shortage impacts in Iraq.The reviewalsoaddressed thesubjectofdroughtanditsmulti-sectorimpactsonvariousdevelopmentandeconomicsectors.Accordingly,thereviewresultedinidentifyingthedatagapsamongtheIraqigovernmentalentitiesinlightoftheinformationthatwouldhavetobecollected/gatheredandpotentialimprovementsforgovernmentaleffortstowarddroughtpreparedness,management,andmitigation.

The study teamalso conductedadetailedassessmentof theexisting climatological conditions, environment, andvarioussectorsandentitiesinvolvedinandaffectedbywater,droughtmanagementandmonitoringactivities,andwatermanagementregulations.Specifically,theanalysisprocesscovereddataclassificationandpreparation:

• Specifyingdatasourcesandfrequencyofdatacollection• Identifyinginformationgapsandchallenges(coordination,sharing,etc.)• Improvingdataaccessibilityandsharingamongrelevantstakeholders(Excelfiles

and database) 3.2. METEOROLOGIcAL ANALySIS TO ASSESS DROUGHT OccURRENcE TheanalysisaimstopresentthetrendinprecipitationandtemperatureforIraqforthelast31years,identifyingthedifferencesamonggovernoratesandexaminingdroughtbymeansoftemperatureandprecipitation.AccordingtotheIraqimeteorologicaldepartment,Iraqhas82meteorologicalstationsdistributedamongthe18governoratesofthecountry.AsMap1shows,51stationsareoperatinginIraqwhile31stationsoperateinKurdistanRegion.Duetothelackofdata,thestudycoversonly42ofthe82meteorologicalstationsinIraqandtheKurdistanRegion.Inordertoobtainasufficientmeasurementdensityandaspatialcontinuityinthevariablesanalysed,thestudyusedprecipitationandtemperaturedatafortheyears1980to2011tostudythetrendanditsvariationsovera31-yearperiod.Thisselectionwasnecessarytocoveralongperiodwiththeminimumnumberofdatagapssincethechosenstationhaveperiodsofmissingdata.Thestationswerechosenaccordingtothefollowingcriteria:

• GeographicalandspatialdistributionacrossIraq,whereatleastonestationineachgovernorateis included

• Dataaccuracyandavailability


Foranalysispurposes,datawereaggregatedandpresentedatgovernoratelevel.Foreachgovernorate,precipitationwascalculatedasthemonthlyarithmeticmeanofallavailabledatarecordedatthemeteorologicalstationsexistingineachgovernorate.Thus,theprecipitationdataserieswasconstructedasspatiallyandtemporallyhomogeneous.

Toovercometheproblemofmissingperiodsanddataintermsofprecipitationandtemperature,dataextrapolationmethodswereusedtocompleteandestimatethemissingdatarecordsfortheperiodof31years.Forprecipitationdata,a‘distancepowermethod’wasapplied.Stationswithrelativedistanceswereusedtofillandestimateanymissing data. The precipitation at the missing stations was estimated as a weighted average of the observedprecipitationattheneighbouringstation(s).Theweightsareequaltothereciprocalofthedistanceorsomepowerofthereciprocalofthedistanceoftheestimatorstationsfromtheestimatedones.Fortemperatureestimation,the‘inversedistanceinterpolation’methodwasused.Themethodinvolvesestimatingthemissingdatabasedontheneareststation(s).

Basedon theobservedprecipitation for each governorate, drought periodswere identifiedwhen thefive-yearmovingaverage19(calculatedtominimizetherandomvariabilityofthemeanannualprecipitationaswellastoshowthetrendanditsvariationover31years)wasbelowaverageofthereferenceperiod.

19 i.e. a Simple Moving Average – (SMA) is applied.

MAp 1: METEOROLOGIcAL STATIONS AcROSS IRAQ IRAQ -Meteorological stations Distribution Map

Rabi'a

Tal AfarSinjar

Mosul

Al-Ba'ajTelAbtah

Makhmur

Kirkuk

BaijiTuzKhurmatu

Tikrit

Al-Qaim Ana Khanaqin

SamarraHaditha

Al-Khalis

RamadiBaghdad-Airport

Al-Rutba

KerbalaAinAl-Tamur

HillaKut

Al-Hai

Nukhayab

Najaf DiwaniyaAmara

Al-Samawa

Nassriya

Al-Slaman

Basrah -Al-Hussein

Zakho

Salah Aldin

AkasatH.1

Kilo- 160

Besah

Heet

AliAl-Gharbi

Badra

Al-Azazia

Basrah -Airport

Habbaniyah

BeermanStation

ErbilStation(Hooler)Khbat

Station

SoranStation

Haji AmranStationChoman

Station

RuwandzStation

SidkanStation

Shirwan Mzn StationMergasur Station

ZakhoStation

DahukStation

Akrah(Eakra)Station

MangeeshStation

Kani MasiStation

BatoofaStation

Amadiyah(Eamida)Station

DinartuhStation

Shareeh StationAtrush

(Khans)Station

ChamchamalStation

SulaymaniyaStation

KalarStation

MidanStation

HalabjaStation

HalshuStation

MautStation

Penjwin Station

Qal'it Dzah(Qa Ladz)

Station

Anbar

Babil

Baghdad

Basrah

Dahuk

Diyala

Erbil

Kerbala

Missan

Muthanna

Najaf

Ninewa

Qadissiya

Salahal-Din

Sulaymaniyah

Kirkuk

Thi-Qar

Wassit

Produced by Joint Analysis Unit (JAU)

LegendIraq Metrological Station

Governorate Boundary

District Boundary

MinaAl-Bakr

ShamamkStation

BamrniStation

IRAQ -Meteorological stations Distribution Map

Rabi'a

Tal AfarSinjar

Mosul

Al-Ba'ajTelAbtah

Makhmur

Kirkuk

BaijiTuzKhurmatu

Tikrit

Al-Qaim Ana Khanaqin

SamarraHaditha

Al-Khalis

RamadiBaghdad-Airport

Al-Rutba

KerbalaAinAl-Tamur

HillaKut

Al-Hai

Nukhayab

Najaf DiwaniyaAmara

Al-Samawa

Nassriya

Al-Slaman

Basrah -Al-Hussein

Zakho

Salah Aldin

AkasatH.1

Kilo- 160

Besah

Heet

AliAl-Gharbi

Badra

Al-Azazia

Basrah -Airport

Habbaniyah

BeermanStation

ErbilStation(Hooler)Khbat

Station

SoranStation

Haji AmranStationChoman

Station

RuwandzStation

SidkanStation

Shirwan Mzn StationMergasur Station

ZakhoStation

DahukStation

Akrah(Eakra)Station

MangeeshStation

Kani MasiStation

BatoofaStation

Amadiyah(Eamida)Station

DinartuhStation

Shareeh StationAtrush

(Khans)Station

ChamchamalStation

SulaymaniyaStation

KalarStation

MidanStation

HalabjaStation

HalshuStation

MautStation

Penjwin Station

Qal'it Dzah(Qa Ladz)

Station

Anbar

Babil

Baghdad

Basrah

Dahuk

Diyala

Erbil

Kerbala

Missan

Muthanna

Najaf

Ninewa

Qadissiya

Salahal-Din

Sulaymaniyah

Kirkuk

Thi-Qar

Wassit

Produced by Joint Analysis Unit (JAU)

LegendIraq Metrological Station


District Boundary

MinaAl-Bakr

ShamamkStation

BamrniStation

SOURCE:JOINTANALySISUNIT(JAU)


3.3. DEvElOPMENt OF DROUght INDEx tO ASSESS AND ANAlySE DROUGHT OccURRENcETheanalysisprocessunderthistaskcoveredthefollowingsteps:

• EvaluatingdroughtseverityandspreadbymeansofStandardPrecipitationIndex• Projectingthetrendindroughtandinitsimpact• Identifyingareasandsectorsmostpronetodrought

Underthiseffort,thedevelopmentandanalysisofthedroughtindicatorwasconductedbasedonaSPI,calculatedaccordingtotheannualprecipitationdatarecordedacrossIraq.TheSPI, introducedbyMcKeeet al. (1993), isasimplemeasuredesignedtoflexiblypresenttheincrementalprecipitationdeficitandthesourceofdrought,atanytimescaleofinterest,whichisuniquelyrelatedtoprobability.Since theSPIcalculationforanylocationisbasedonthelong-termprecipitationrecordforadesiredperiod,thislong-termrecordofprecipitationisnormalizedusingaprobabilitydistributionfunctionsothatvaluesofSPIareactuallyseenasstandarddeviationsfromthemedian.TheSPI’sprobability-basednature(theprobabilityofobservedprecipitationtransformedintoanindex)makesitwellsuited for risk management and decision-making.

Becausedroughtsvarygreatlyinduration,itisimportanttodetectandmonitorthematavarietyoftimescales.Inthisregard,akeyfeatureoftheSPIistheflexibilitytomeasuredroughtatdifferenttimescales.Thesetimescalesreflecttheimpactsofdroughtondifferentwaterresourcesneededbyvariousdecision-makers.Meteorologicalandsoilmoistureconditionsrespondtoprecipitationanomaliesonrelativelyshorttimescales,forexampleonetosixmonths,whereasstreamflow,reservoirs,andgroundwaterrespondtolonger-termprecipitationanomaliesoftheorderofsixmonthsupto24monthsorlonger. Besides the scientific perspective, the availability of suitable data strongly determines the development andconstructionofdroughtindex.GiventhegenerationoftheSPIreliedessentiallyonmeteorologicalvariablesthatareobservedatmeteorologicalstations,itisclassifiedasameteorologicaldroughtindex.Accordingly,severalfactorstriggertheuseoftheSPIinassessingdroughtconditionsinIraq.Thesearesummarizedasfollows:• The SPI was chosen for this study because

of its simplicity and basis solely on theaccessibleprecipitationdata.

• the SPi defines the criteria for a droughteventforanyofthetimescales.Eachdroughtevent, therefore,hasadurationdefinedbyitsbeginningandend,andintensityforeachmonththattheeventcontinues.

• Arealstrengthof theSPI is itsability tobecalculatedformanytimescales,whichmakesit possible to deal with different droughttypes. Those include meteorological,agricultural, and hydrological droughts.Moreover, the ability to compute the SPIonmultiple timescales allows for temporalflexibility in the evaluation of precipitationconditionsinrelationtowatersupply.

box 1:SPIclassificationfollowingMcKeeetal.(1993)

SPI value Class

SPI≥2.00 extreme wet

1.50<SPI≤2.00 Severewet

1.00<SPI≤1.50 Moderate wet

-1.00<SPI≤1.00 near normal

-1.50<SPI≤-1.00 Moderatedry

-2.00<SPI≤-1.50 Severedry

SPI≤-2.00 Extremedry


Theadvantageof theSPIapproach is that itcanbeusedmorebeneficially thanprecipitation inspatialanalysisfordrought.Thisisbecauseofthepossibilityofcomparingdifferentstationsindifferentclimaticregions(orsub-regions)regardlessofthefactthattheymayhavedifferentnormalprecipitation.Moreover,theprecipitationintheSPIanalysisisalreadynormalized,andthusitcomparesthecurrentprecipitationwiththeaverage.Therefore,theprecipitationoftwoareaswithdifferentprecipitationcharacteristicscanbecomparedintermsofhowseriouslytheyareexperiencingdrought,basedontheirnormalprecipitation.AnotheradvantageoftheSPIoverthedifference-from-meanprecipitationapproachisthatwhilethelatterwillonlyindicatethenumericalmagnitudeofvariation(howmuchprecipitationisdeviatedfromthenormalmean),theSPIshowsthestatisticalmagnitudeofdeviationfromthemean;hence,itbetterportraystheseriousnessoftheshortage.

Consequently, for this study a three-month SPi (3 SPi) is calculated for a short-term meteorological drought assessment,asix-monthSPI(6SPI)iscalculatedforagriculturaldroughtassessment,anda 12-month SPi (12 SPi) wasusedasanintermediate-long-termdroughtindex,thatis,forhydrologicaldroughtanalysesandapplications.

TheSPIanalysisforeachgovernoratewasusedtoassessthetemporalandspatialcharacteristicsofdroughtsinIraqandKurdistanRegion.TheSPIvaluesforeachstationwithineachgovernoratewerecalculated.Then,theaverageSPIvaluesforeachgovernoratewerecalculatedbasedonthecomputedSPIvaluesrecordedateachstationinthatgovernorate,usingarithmeticmean.Consequently,thecomputed3SPI,6SPI,and12SPImonthvaluesofdifferentgovernoratesfortheperiodofanalysis,from1980to2011,wereenteredandthetemporalvariationofSPIwasassessed.Alternatively,linearregressionwasusedtofurtherprojectthecomputed3SPI,6SPI,and12SPImonthvaluesofdifferentgovernoratesforthenext15-years,from2012-2026.TheprojectedSPIwasusedtostudythedrought trend emerging and theabilitytoforecastandpredictthecharacteristicsofdroughts includingdroughtinitiation,frequency,andseverity.

WhilemanytechnicalapproachesareusedfortheSPIforecasting,suchastheArtificialNeuralNetworks(ANNs),SupportVectorRegression(SVR),andWaveletNeuralNetworks(WN)20,theSPIvaluescannotbeeasilyprojected,especially if they are based on adjusted precipitation values.In this study, however, the projected SPI values,calculatedbasedonsimpleregression,areusedtostudytheemergingdroughttrendandtoforecastandpredictthecharacteristicsofdroughts.Thisspecificallyincludesdroughtinitiation,frequency,andseverity.Toovercomesuchaproblem,adetailedmodellinganalysesbasedonaccurateprecipitationandclimatologicaldatacanhelptopredictfuturedroughttrendsatspecifictimescales.Examplesincludeusingadvancedmathmodels,suchastimeseriesanalysistechniques.

SincetheSPIprovidesanindicationofdroughtcharacteristicslikeonset,severity,andspatialextent,theSPIisusedasadroughtmonitoringtool forquantificationofprecipitationdeficitatdifferenttimescales.Moreover, theSPIvaluesforthe18governorateswereanalysedinordertoidentifydroughtproneareas.Analysisofthecomputedsixand12-monthSPItimeseriesrevealedwhenthemostsevereandmoderatedroughtsoccurredinthecountry.AccordingtotheSPIseverityscaleclassification,adoptedbyMcKeeet al.(1993),theselectionofthedroughtyear–theyearcorrespondingtolowestSPIwithinthetimeseries–wasconsidered.yurekli et al.(2012)havefurtherdeclared that adroughteventoccursanytimewhentheSPIiscontinuouslynegativeandreachesintensitywheretheSPIis-1.0orless.TheeventendswhentheSPIbecomespositive.Severedroughtsareidentifiedbyextended periodofmonthsor yearswhena regionnotesadeficiency in itswater supply.Uncontrollable factors suchaslackofwaterforalongperiod,declineinprecipitation,andprolongedperiodsoftemperatureincreasecontributesignificantlytodroughtseverity.Otherfactors,suchasinsufficientwatermanagementpractices,populationgrowth,anddemand,escalatetheproblem.

20 Belayneh, A. (2012). Short-term and Long-term SPI Drought Forecasts Using Wavelet Neural Networks and Wavelet Support Vector Regression in the Awash River Basin of Ethiopia. (Unpublished paper). Department of Bioresource Engineering MacDonald Campus of McGill University. Quebec, Canada. Available online at: http://webpages.mcgill.ca/staff/deptshare/FAES/066-Bioresource/Theses/theses/434AntenehBelayneh2012/AntenehBelayneh.pdf

http://webpages.mcgill.ca/staff/deptshare/FAES/066-Bioresource/Theses/theses/434AntenehBelayneh2012/AntenehBelayneh.pdf


In order to reasonably distinguish incremental dry anomalies betweendry andwet seasons, the12-month SPi is examined for each governorate. The value represents a comparison of the precipitation for 12 consecutivemonthswiththatrecordedinthesame12consecutivemonthsinallpreviousyearsofavailabledata.Becausethesetimescalesarethecumulativeresultofshorterperiodsthatmaybeaboveorbelownormal,thelongerSPIs(e.g.,12-month,24-monthSPI)tendtogravitatetowardzerounlessadistinctivewetordrytrendistakingplace.Thus,the12SPIisconsideredasignificantmeasuretobeexaminedtomapthedroughtseverityacrossIraq.

3.4. ASSESSMENt OF MUltI-SECtOR DROUght IMPACtSUponcompletingtheclimatologicalanddroughtindexanalyses,droughtproneareaswereidentifiedandlocatedacrossthecountryinordertoproposemeasuresfordroughtpreparedness,monitoring,mitigation,andmanagement.Takingintoconsiderationthedatacollectedandrevieweduponcompletingthefirsttaskofthismethodology,thestudy teamevaluated andexamined themulti-sector impacts of droughton concerned sectors andpopulationgroups.Simplyput,droughtepisodeswerecorrelated todeterioration in thesesectors.Thiswascompletedviaadetailedreviewofallavailablemaps,governmentaldata,andavailablestatisticalindicatorssuchasdataaboutemployment,agriculturalproduction,andwaterlevels,amongotherindicators.Foreachsector,theanalysisclearlydescribedthehistoricandexistingconditionsandthepotential impactsofdroughtwithaclear justificationandexplanationofhowsuchconditionsaffectthestudiedareas.

Specifically,theimpactassessmentevaluatedtheimpactsofdroughtonwateravailabilityandqualityinIraq.Thisincludedassessmentofthewaterresourcesthatdrieduporthatsufferedasignificantreductionintheirnormallevelsandtheirgeographicaldistribution,aswellastheproceduresandprecautionstakenbythegovernmenttoovercome theproblem.Moreover, the analysis investigated theeffectsof droughtonwater supply in termsofreductionandquality,togetherwiththeassistancemeasuresadoptedtoovercomethenegativeeffectsofdroughtontheimpactedcommunities.

Theimpactsofdroughtonhealth,agribusiness,andindustrywerealsoexamined.Thisincludedanalysingthetrendsandtheincidenceofwaterbornediseasesandimpactsonindustrialandagriculturalproductionasitrelatestowatershortage,particularlyindroughtproneareas.

Theanalysisfurtherestimatedtheeffectsofwatershortageonhydropowerproductionbyunderliningthenegativeimpactsofthedeclineintheproduction,asacleanerformofenergy,ontheenvironment.Othersocio-economicconsequencesofdroughtimpactscoveringsectorslikemigration,unemployment,poverty,andfoodsecurityhavealsobeenreviewed.


3.5. pROpOSED MEASURES FOR DROUGHT MITIGATIONOncethedroughtproneareaswereidentifiedbasedontheSPIcalculatedfromthemonthlymeanprecipitationdata foreachgovernorate,andupon identifying thepotential impactsofdroughtonvarious sectors, the studyteamproposedanumberofDrought Mitigation Measures and Plans. Theproposedmeasures incorporateregionalandbestpractices,whereappropriate,toenhancethecurrentcapacityofthegovernmentwithregardstodroughtpreparedness,monitoring,andmanagement.


4. FINDINGS AND DIScUSSION4.1. METEOROLOGIcAL ANALySIS4.1.1. cLIMATOLOGIcAL DATA ANALySIS FOR IRAQ4.1.2. cLIMATOLOGIcAL DATA ANALySIS FOR KURDISTAN REGION4.1.3. DROUGHT ASSESSMENT USING SpI ANALySES4.1.4. SOIL TypES IN IRAQ4.1.5. ChANgES IN vEgEtAtION COvER4.2. WATER RESOURcES4.2.1. DROUGHT IMpAcTS ON SURFAcE WATER FLOW IN IRAQ4.2.2. DROUGHT IMpAcTS ON WATER RESOURcES IN KURDISTAN4.2.3. DROUGHT IMpAcTS ON GROUNDWATER4.2.4. DAMS IN IRAQ4.2.5. THE IRAQI MARSHLANDS4.3. WATER SUppLy AND QUALITy4.3.1. DROUGHT IMpAcTS ON WATER QUALITy


4.3.2. WATER SUppLy AND SANITATION4.4. DROUGHT EFFEcTS ON HEALTH4.4.1. DROUght AND wAtERbORNE DISEASES IN IRAq4.4.2. OthER wAtERbORNE DISEASES4.4.3. DRINkINg wAtER qUAlIty AND wAtERbORNE DISEASES4.5. DROUght EFFECtS ON POvERty, UNEMPlOyMENt, AND FOOD SECURIty4.5.1. DROUght, POvERty, AND UNEMPlOyMENt4.5.2. DROUGHT AND FOOD SEcURITy4.6. DROUght-INDUCED MIgRAtION4.7. HyDROpOWER pRODUcTION IN IRAQ4.7.1. MAIN HyDROpOWER pLANTS IN IRAQ4.8. DROUght EFFECtS ON AgRIbUSINESS AND thE INDUStRIAl SECtOR4.8.1. DROUght EFFECtS ON AgRIbUSINESS4.8.2. DROUGHT EFFEcTS ON THE INDUSTRIAL SEcTOR


4. FINDINGS AND DIScUSSION4.1. METEOROLOGIcAL ANALySIS Changingprecipitationpatternsareanimportantclimaticindicatorfordrought.Thus,trendanalysiswascarriedouttoexaminethelong-termtendencyofprecipitationacrossthe18governoratesofIraq,includingthethreegovernoratesofKurdistanRegion.

DuetothelackofdatainmanymeteorologicalstationsinIraq,thestudyareacovers42meteorologicalstations(asshowninMap1)acrossthecountryofwhichonlyfourstationsarelocatedinKurdistanRegion.Precipitationfromtheyears1980to2011isusedtostudytheprecipitationtrendanditsvariationoverthereferenceperiodof31years.21 22

MAP 2: DIStRIbUtION OF thE 42 MEtEOROlOgICAl StAtIONS INcLUDED IN THE ANALySIS

21 Henceforth this is referred to as the “reference period.”22 For each governorate, precipitation is calculated as the arithmetic mean of precipitation data of meteorological stations in the governorate. Thus, the precipitation data series are constructed as spatially and temporally homogeneous. A survey carried out by UNESCO Iraq Office revealed distinct gaps and insufficient records for most of the meteorological stations across Iraq and Kurdistan. The study area covers 42 meteorological stations across Iraq.

IRAQ -Meteorological stations Distribution Map 01 May 2013

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IRAQ -Meteorological stations Distribution Map 01 May 2013

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District Boundary



Map 3 shows the distribution of precipitation for the whole country based on themean annual precipitationrate observed in the period 1980 to 2011 for 42 meteorological stations included in the analysis. AsMap 3 depicts, precipitation in Iraq varies significantly between the northern and southern parts of thecountry. For example, the northern parts have abundance precipitation reaching up to 400-470 mmannually23, while the southern-eastern parts are arid, with mean annual precipitation less than 100 mm24.

4.1.1. cLIMATOLOGIcAL DATA ANALySIS FOR IRAQ From1980to2011,themeanannualprecipitationforthewholecountrywasequalto207mm,asshowninFigure4.1.Theminimumof128mmwasobservedfortheyear1990whilethemaximumoccurred in1993when292mmwerereceivedcountrywide,afterasignificantreductioninprecipitationbetween1983and1984.Ingeneral,January,February,March,andDecemberarethemonthswithhighestprecipitationthroughouttheyear,accountingfornearlytwo-thirdsoftheannualaverage.

MAP 3: MEAN ANNUAl PRECIPItAtION (1980-2011)

23 The value of 400-470 mm is an average value for the north of Iraq (Kurdistan Region) for the period of 31 years observed. It is worth to note that in some meteorological stations, for certain years the precipitation reached a value of almost 1,000 mm (as the case of the meteorological station of Sulaymaniyah in 2002 when the total precipitation for the whole year was equal to 929 mm).24 The value of 100 mm is an average value for the southern part of Iraq for the period of 31 years observed. It is worth to note that in some meteorological stations, for certain years the precipitation reached a value much lower than 100 mm (as the case of the meteorological station of Najaf in 1990 when the total precipitation for the whole year was equal to 30 mm).


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AsFigure4.2depicts, thegovernoratesof SulaymaniyahandDahuk inKurdistanhave thehighestprecipitationamountsonthelocalandnationallevels,withmeanvaluesof534mmand508mmperyear,respectively.IfthegovernoratesoftheKurdistanRegionareexcluded,Kirkuk,Ninewa,andDiyalaholdthehighestshareofprecipitation,particularlyinthenorthernpartofIraq.TheaverageannualprecipitationinKirkukforexampleisbyfactor1.7abovetheoverallannualmean.NinewaandDiyalaalonecontributeby factor2.7 to theoverallannualmean.On thecontrary,governoratesinthesouthernandcentralpartsofthecountryexperienceaprecipitationdeficiency.ThegovernoratesofThi-Qar,Kerbala,andNajafreceivetheminimumquantityofprecipitation,withtotalannualvaluesof127mmforThi-Qarandapproximately91mmforKerbalaandNajafgovernorates.

Precipitation variations across the country indicate that some governorates are already suffering from lowprecipitationandanassociateddiminishingreplenishmentofwaterresources.Thosefactorshaveseriousimpactsonvariouseconomicandagriculturalactivitiesintherespectivegovernoratesincaseofdrought.Furthermore,theyadverselyimpactothergovernorates,whicharecurrentlyenduringstressintermsofprecipitationdeficit,andthusfacinganincreasingvulnerabilitytowardsdroughts.

FIgURE 4.1: ANNUAl AND MEAN ANNUAl PRECIPItAtION IN IRAq (1980-2011)

FIgURE 4.2: PRECIPItAtION AMOUNt DIStRIbUtED by gOvERNORAtE (1980-2011)

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Inordertominimizetherandomvariabilityofthemeanannualprecipitationaswellastoshowthetrendanditsvariationover31years,afive-yearmovingaverage(i.e.aSimpleMovingAverage–SMA)isapplied.25Itcomparesthecurrentprecipitationpatternwithhistoricpatterns,assesseswhetherprecipitationhasincreasedordecreased,andshowsifdroughthasbeennotedwithapredictedprecipitationpattern.Adroughtperiodisidentifiedwhenthefive-yearmovingaverageisbelowaverageofthereferenceperiod.

25 Chou, Y. L. (1975). Statistical Analysis, 2nd edition. Toronto: Holt, Rinehart & Winston of Canada Ltd.: “Given a series of numbers and a fixed subset size, the first element of the moving average is obtained by taking the average of the initial fixed subset of the number series. Then the subset is modified by “shifting forward”; that is, excluding the first number of the series and including the next number following the original subset in the series. This creates a new subset of numbers, which is averaged. This process is repeated over the entire data series. The plot line connecting all the (fixed) averages is the moving average. A moving average is a set of numbers, each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of datum points. A moving average may also use unequal weights for each datum value in the subset to emphasize particular values in the subset. A moving average is commonly used with time series data to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cycles. The threshold between short-term and long-term depends on the application, and the parameters of the moving average will be set accordingly.”

Itbecomesapparentfromthemovingmeanasappliedtorecordedprecipitationvaluesforthereferenceperiodthatthecountryhasexperienceddroughtconditionsfrom1984until1992.Incontrarytothis,thefive-yearmovingaveragefurtherrevealsthatfrom1993to2001,Iraqenteredintowetterconditions,wheretheaverageincreaseinprecipitationduringthatperiodaccountsfornearly40%oftheannualsumoverthelongperiodofrecords.However,areductioninprecipitationisobservedfrom2001to2003,followedbyasignificantdecreaseinprecipitationfrom2008to2011,forwhichseveredroughtsarenoted.va l u e s o f t h e f i v e - y e a r m o v i n g a v e r a g e b e l o w t h e m e a n p r e c i p i t a t i o n o f t h e r e f e r e n c e p e r i o d i n d i c a t e t h a t I r a q i s c u r r e n t l y e x p e r i e n c i n g d r o u g h t . Therefore, it ishighlyrecommendedto identifypropermeasurestoeliminate its impacts.Logically,thesehavetoaddressbothmitigativeaswellasadaptivedimensions.

temperatureTheMeanAnnualMonthlyAirTemperature(MAMAT)fortheperiod1980to2011arepresentedinFigure4.4.a.Themaximummeanannualairtemperaturewas25.3oCin2010,andthemeanannualairtemperaturewas23.0oC.Themaximummonthlyairtemperaturerecordedwas38.9oCinJuly2000,whiletheminimumwas6.5oc in January1983.AsFigure4.4.bindicates,themeanairtemperaturestartstodecreaseinJuly(36.0oc) and reaches its minimum mean (9.6 oC)inJanuaryafterwhichitagainstartstoincreaseuntilreachingitspeakvalueinJulywhenthecyclerepeatsitselfagain.

FIgURE 4.3: PRECIPItAtION FIvE-yEAR MOvINg AvERAgE IN IRAq (1980-2011)

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Anincreaseanddecreaseinairtemperaturevaluesishighlycorrelatedwithprecipitation.Forexample,theconstantincreaseinairtemperaturehassignificantlyreducedtheamountofprecipitation,particularlyin1999,theperiodsbetween2006-2009,and2010.Thecoefficientofcorrelationequals-0.9,-0.8,-0.7wherethenegativesignindicatesahighlyinversecorrelationbetweenthetwovalues–precipitationandairtemperature.26

MAP 4: MEAN ANNUAl tEMPERAtURE (1980-2011)

26 The correlation between two variables X and Y can be direct (or positive) when as X grows Y also grows; the correlation is instead said inverse (or negative) if when X increases, the variable Y decreases. The inverse correlation is identified by a value of the coefficient of correlation ranging between -1 and 0.

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FIgURE 4.4.A: ANNUAl AND MEAN ANNUAl AIR tEMPERAtURE IN IRAq (1980-2011)

Precipitation trend in IraqThe following section explores the precipitation trend in Iraq for each governorate for the reference period of31-years,i.e.1980-2011.Thechartsshowthefive-yearmovingaverageandmeanofthereferenceperiodforeachgovernorate.Droughtperiodsareidentifiedwherethefive-yearmovingaverageisbelowaverageofthereferenceperiod.TheresultsforthegovernoratesinKurdistanregionarepresentedseparately.

Theanalysisrevealsthateveniftherearesomedifferencesinthetrendacrossgovernoratesduringthereferenceperiod,allthegovernoratesexperiencedareductionintheprecipitationthroughoutthelastdecadewhenseveredroughtsaffectedthewholecountry.Almostallthegovernorates,fromthenorthtothesouth,areconsidereddroughtproneareas;someofthemarecurrentlyexperiencingdrought,whileothersareconsideredhighlyvulnerabletoit.

Itisimportanttonotethatwhenevaluatingtheoccurrenceofdroughtsinthepastorinthepresent,thedifferencesinwateravailabilityamonggovernoratesmustbetakenintoaccount.Thismeansthatadroughtinagovernoratewithameanprecipitationbelowthenationalaveragecouldhaveastrongerimpactthanadroughtoccurringinagovernoratewithhigherprecipitation.Therefore,itcouldhavestrongereffectsonwaterresourcesandonthepopulation.

FIgURE 4.4.b: MAx, MIN, AND MEAN ANNUAl AIR tEMPERAtURE IN IRAq (1980-2011)

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AsshownbythemovingaveragedepictedbyFigure4.5.a,inNinewa,droughtstartedin1999andcontinueduntil2011.Thisfollowedasignificantwetseason,foralmostadecade,from1988to1997,whereprecipitationinthatperiodoftimeaccountsfornearly45%ofthemeanannualprecipitationrecordedinthegovernorate.

As for the governorate of Salah al-Din, Figure 4.5.b shows that the governorate has faced quitewetweather,particularlybetween1991and1995,wherethefive-yearmovingaverageprecipitationshowsanincreaseinvalueabove the normal annual mean. Nevertheless, from 1999 until 2011, a significant decrease in precipitation isobservedandtheareahasbegunfacingdrought.

Thisobservation,wherethefive-yearmovingaverageprecipitationvaluesarebelowtheannual31-yearaverage,indicates that Ninewa and Salah al-Din are currently experiencing drought.Therefore,propermitigationmeasuresareneededtoeliminateitsimpacts.

FIgURE 4.5: FIvE-yEAR MOvINg AvERAgE PER gOvERNORAtE IN IRAq (1980-2011)

4.5.A: NINEWA 4.5.b: SAlAh Al-DIN

4.5.c: KIRKUK 4.5.D: ANbAR

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ForKirkuk(Figure4.5.c),normalconditionsprevailedoverthelongperiodrecorded.Aslightincreaseinprecipitationisobserved,particularlyfrom1991to1995.However,from2007to2008asignificantdeclineinprecipitationwasrecorded,accompaniedbyanoticeabledecreaseinairtemperature,bringingthegovernorateunderstressintermsof drought. kirkuk is currently experiencing drought.

AsinFigure4.5.d,inAnbarnormaltowetperiodsarerecordedfortheperiodsbetweentheyears1988and1999duringwhichthetotalprecipitationaccountsforalmost1.4timestheamountoftheannualmean.Basedonananalysisofthemovingaverageofthereferenceperiod,droughtmostevidentlystartedinthegovernoratein2000andcontinueduntil2011.Asevidently,thesumofprecipitationmeasuredforthepast12years(2000-2011)hasdecreasedsignificantlybynearly25%ascomparedtothesametimescaleperiodpriorto2000.

Theseobservations,wherethefive-yearmovingaverageshowsprecipitationvaluesbelowthemeanofthelong-termreferenceperiod,triggerthealarmthatcurrentclimatologicalconditionsareevidentlychanging,andthusleadingthecountrytobecomemoresusceptibletofurtherdiminishingprecipitation.Inordertoreduceanyassociatedriskpotentialsderivedfromanexacerbatingtrendappropriatemeasuresneedtobetakenforeffectivelycopewithsuchcriticaldevelopment.

Figure4.6depictstheprecipitationtrendinthegovernoratesDiyala,Baghdad,Kerbala,andBabil.AsshowninFigure4.6.a.,normaltowetperiodsarerecordedinDiyalabetween1984-1999,wherethemeanprecipitationexceedstheannualmeanbynearly15%inthatperiod.However,droughtstartedinthegovernoratein2000andcontinuesupto2011 indicating thatDiyala is currently considered a drought prone area (areawithpotential consequencesresultingfromadeficientwaterbalance).

InBaghdad,normaltoalmostnormalconditionsprevailedformostoftheperiodrecorded.However,since1998anduntil2008,thegovernoratehasbeenexperiencingdroughts.Duringthe1999drought,precipitationinBaghdaddroppedsignificantlybynearly47%belowaverage.Consequently,baghdad might be more vulnerable to drought in the future.

4.6.A: DIyALA 4.6.b: bAghDAD


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In the governorates of Kerbala and Babil, events of drought were noticed for the first decade of the secondmillennium,startingoffin2000,andlastinguntil2011.Althoughrelativelywetconditionsareobserved,particularlyin1989wheretheaverageprecipitationaccountsformorethan1.3timestheannualmean,asubstantialreductioninprecipitationisrecordedfortheperiod2008and2011,whenthecountryenduredseveredroughts.kerbala and babil governorates are currently considered drought prone areas.

Figure4.7 shows the trend in the centralpartof the country.AsFigure4.7.apresents, a slight shortfall in rain isrecordedinWassitfrom1984to1986.However,thegovernoratehasfacedrelativelywetconditionsparticularlyfrom1988to2000.Duringthatperiod,therecordshowsthatprecipitationsignificantlyincreasedtoaccountfornearly1.2 timestheannualmean.Thiswetperiodwasfollowedbyseveredroughtonefrom2001-2011,with2011astheworstyear,andadeclineinprecipitationbyalmost30%fromtheannualmeanrecordedinthewetperiod.

InNajaf,ontheotherhand,thetrendshowsnormaltonearnormalconditionsintermsofprecipitation,despiteaslightdecreaseisobservedfrom2008topresent.InQadissiya,relativelywetperiodswereobservedfrom1995-2000,followedbyasharpdecreaseinprecipitation,particularlyin2011.Najaf and qadissiya are currently regarded as drought prone areas.


4.7.A: WASSIT 4.7.b: NAJAF

4.6.C: kERbAlA 4.6.D: bAbIl

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ForMissangovernorate,Figure4.7.dshowsaslightdifferenceintrendanalysisintermsofdroughtseverity.Thegovernoratehasfacedslightdroughts,particularlyfrom1984-1995.After1996,however,Missangovernoratestartedtofacerelativelywetconditions,particularlyin2000.Themeanprecipitationin2000accountsfornearly46%oftheannualmeanuntil2007,whenaseveredroughttookplace(2007-2008).Missan is currently experiencing drought.

InMuthanna(Figure4.8.a),thefirstperiodofdroughtwasobservedbetween1984and1996,withareductioninprecipitationbyalmost25%ofthe31-yearannualmean.Aseconddroughtperiodwasregisteredfrom2004until2011,withthelatteryearisconsideredtheworst.Thosetwoperiodsofdroughtinthegovernorate,however,wereseparatedbywetperiodsbetween1994and2003.Precipitationrecordedforthatperiodaccountsfornearly1.4timestheannualmean.

4.7.c: QADISSIyA 4.7.D: MISSAN

4.8.A: MUTHANNA 4.8.b: thI-qAR


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Incontrast,normaltorelativelywetperiodsareobservedinthegovernorateofThi-Qar.Nosignificantvariationswereobservedintermsofdroughtduetoprecipitationshortage.Anincreaseinprecipitationisobservedfrom1995and2000.Althoughaslightdecreaseinprecipitationisobservedbetween2000and2005andafter2009,nomajorobservationsondroughtarenoted.yet,thisobservation,wherethefive-yearmovingaverageprecipitationvaluesarebelowtheannual31-yearmean,particularlyafter2009,andotherdrought leadingfactors liketemperatureincrease,lowannualprecipitation,waterdemandincrease,andinsufficientwatermanagementpractices,regardlessofprecipitationannualvariations,indicatethatthi-qar is currently considered a drought prone area.

InBasrah(Figure4.9),tworelativelywetperiodsarerecorded:from1986-1989andfrom1993-2003beforedroughthitthegovernorate.From2003onward,asharpdecreaseinprecipitationtookplace,particularlyin2011duringwhichprecipitationdroppedbynearly43%ascomparedtothemountrecordedduringthewetperiodobservedintheearlynineties.SimilartotheconditionsoftherestofthegovernoratesinIraq,thesituationinbasrah,whichcontinuestotakeplacerecentlyintermsofprecipitationshortage,indicatesthatthegovernoratemay be vulnerable to serious droughts inthefutureyears.

FIgURE 4.9: FIvE-yEAR MOvINg AvERAgE IN bASRAh (1980-2011)

wind, dust storms, and suspended dustWindisauniqueclimatologicalphenomenoninIraq.Specifically,thesummermonthsaremarkedbytwokindsofwindphenomena:

Southern and South-easterly Sharqi:adry,dustywindwithoccasionalgustsof80-kilometresperhour(50mph),occurringfromApriltoearlyJuneandagainfromlateSeptemberthroughNovember.Thesewindsmaylastforadayatthebeginningandendoftheseason,butforseveraldaysatothertimes.Thiswindisoftenaccompaniedbyadverselyimpactingsandandduststormsthatmayrisetoheightsofseveralthousandmetresandcauseairportstodiscontinueoperationsforbriefperiods.

North-westerly Shamal:frommid-Junetomid-Septembertheprevailingwind,calledtheshamal,isfromthenorthandnorthwest.Itisasteadywind,absentonlyoccasionallyduringthisperiod.

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North-easternIraqsuffersfromconsiderablymoreduststormsthantheotherregions.Themeanmaximumoccursinthesummerduringwhichformorethan30%ofthetimethereisalevelofairbornedustthatreducesvisibilityto below 11 km.27However,evenduringwinter,which istheseasonwiththelowestnumberofdustevents,onaverage,formorethan5%ofthetime,thereisareductioninvisibilityduetoblowingdust.ThewesternregionofIraq,ontheotherhand,suffersfromdustmainlyinthespring.Inthatseason,forabout15%ofthetimeonaverage,thereisareductioninvisibilityduetodust.Inthewinter,thisfiguredecreasestoabout5%ofthetimeonaverage.

FIgURE 4.10: NUMbER OF DAyS wIth SUSPENDED DUSt IN thE AIR - MOSUl (1980-2011)

FIgURE 4.11: NUMbER OF DAyS wIth SUSPENDED DUSt IN thE AIR - kIRkUk(1980-2011)

Dust stormsanddust suspended in theairmaycauseavarietyofenvironmentalandeconomic impacts.Someof the major impacts are a reduction of visibility, reduced soil fertility, and damage to crops. Other impactsincludea reductionof solar radiationanda consequent reduction in theefficiencyof solardevices,damage totelecommunicationsandmechanicalsystems,dirtandairpollution,andanincreaseofrespiratorydiseases.

AsshowninFigure4.11,Kirkukexperienced261dayswithsuspendeddustintheyear1986.28Anotherpeakwasregistered in 2008 and 2009 during the droughts that affected the governorate. InMosul, the dust remainedsuspendedintheairfor177daysoverayearonaverageinthelastdecade.InNajaf,thehighestnumberofdaysperyearwithsuspendeddustwasobservedin2008and2009,respectively:193and209daysover365.

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27 Akbari, S. (2011). Dust storms, Sources in the Middle East and economic model for survey its impacts, Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 5(12): 227-233. Available online at: http://www.ajbasweb.com/ajbas/2011/December-2011/227-233.pdf28 Data from the meteorological station of Kirkuk.

http://www.ajbasweb.com/ajbas/2011/December-2011/227-233.pdf


4.1.2. cLIMATOLOGIcAL DATA ANALySIS FOR KURDISTAN REGION

PrecipitationThelongestperiodofrecordeddataobservedinKurdistanRegionfortheyears1980-2011showsameanannualprecipitationof461mm.Theminimumprecipitationwasregisteredin1983(220mm),whilethemaximumwasrecordedin1994(772mm),occurringafterasignificantreductioninprecipitationbetween1983and1990.January,February,March,andDecemberrepresentthehighestprecipitationmonthsintheyearandaccountfornearlytwo-thirds of the annual mean.

FIGURE 4.13: ANNUAL AND MEAN ANNUAL pREcIpITATION IN KURDISTAN REGION (1980-2011)

FIgURE 4.12: NUMbER OF DAyS wIth SUSPENDED DUSt IN thE AIR - NAJAF(1980-2011)

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AmongthethreemajorgovernoratesoftheKurdistanRegion,Sulaymaniyahholdsthehighestshareofprecipitation,withameanprecipitationequaltoapproximately1.16timestheoverallannualmeanrecodedintheregion.

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Figure4.15showsthatinthe31-yearperiodtheKurdistanRegionfaceddroughtsfrom1984until1993.In1994,however,thefive-yearmovingaverageexceedsthemeanannualprecipitation.Moreover,from1993to2001theregionenteredawetseasonwheretheaverageincreaseinprecipitationinthatperiodaccountsfornearly1.23timesthe annualsumoverthelongperiod.Anotherwetperiodwasalsorecordedbetween2003and2008.However,asignificantreductioninprecipitationisobservedfrom2008to2011,whereseveredroughtsarenoted.kurdistan Region is currently experiencing drought.

temperatureThemeanannualairtemperatureintheKurdistanRegionisapproximately21oC,slightlylowerthaninthesouthernandcentralpartsofIraq.Januaryisthecoldestmonthoftheyear,butgenerally,themeantemperaturedoesnotdropbelow5oC.ThemeantemperatureinJulyandAugustinthispartofIraqexceeds30oc. Because of the high frequencyofdayswithsunradiation,the24-hourtemperatureamplitudeoftenreachesahighvalue.

FIgURE 4.15: PRECIPItAtION FIvE-yEAR MOvINg AvERAgE IN kURDIStAN REgION (1980-2011)

FIgURE 4.14: PRECIPItAtION qUANtIty DIStRIbUtED by gOvERNORAtE IN kURDIStAN REgION (1980-2011)

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Inwinter,windsfromthenorthernsectorprevail,whileinsummer,westernandsouth-westernwindsoccurmostfrequently.Generally,theaveragewindvelocityintheindividualmonthsoftheyeardoesnotexceedfivem/s.Insummer,thetotalcloudcoverislimitedandclearweatherpredominates.Themeanannualairhumidityis40-45%,anditexhibitsahighseasonaldiversity.InJanuary,humidityapproachesapproximately70%whileitdropstobelow20%inJulyandAugust.Fogoccursrarely,usuallyinDecemberandJanuary.Generally,thetotalnumberoffoggydaysthroughouttheyeardoesnotexceed20.

Precipitation trend in kurdistan RegionAs Figure 4.16.a depicts, relatively wet periods were registered in Erbil from 1984-1986 and from 1992-1998.Particularlyin1996,theprecipitationmeanrepresentsaround133%oftheannualmeanrecordedovertheperiodof31years.Nonetheless,areductioninprecipitationstartedin1999until2002anddroughtswerenotedduringthatperiod.Otherdroughtperiods,registeredfrom2007-2011,indicatethatErbil may be vulnerable to drought.

FIgURE 4.16: FIvE-yEAR MOvINg AvERAgE PER gOvERNORAtE IN kURDIStAN (1980-2011)

FIgURE 4.17: FIvE-yEAR MOvINg AvERAgE PER gOvERNORAtE IN DAhUk (1980-2011)

Likewise,Sulaymaniyahhasexperiencedseveredroughtperiodsfornearlyadecadefrom1998-1994.Afterthatperiod,however,thegovernoratefacedincreasingwetconditionsandprecipitation,particularlyfrom1997until2008. In2008,onthecontrary,anoticeabledecrease inprecipitationoccurredandadroughttookplace inthegovernorate.SimilarobservationsarealsonotedinDahuk(Figure4.17).

4.16.A: ERbIl 4.16.b: SUlAyMANIyAh

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4.1.3. DROUGHT ASSESSMENT USING SpI ANALySESInordertoassesstheoccurrenceofdroughteventsforallthegovernoratesinthecountry,theStandardPrecipitationIndex(SPI)wascalculatedusingtheavailabledataonprecipitationforIraq.TheSPIwasintroducedbyMcKeeet al.(1993).Itisasimplemeasuredesignedtoflexiblypresenttheincrementalprecipitationdeficitandthesourceofdrought,atanytimescaleofinterest,whichisuniquelyrelatedtoprobability.Itisclassifiedasameteorologicaldroughtindexbecauseitreliesessentiallyonmeteorologicalvariablesobservedinvariousmeteorologicalstations.Inordertoassessdifferentkindofdroughts,athree-monthSPI(3SPI)iscalculatedforashort-termmeteorologicaldroughtassessment,asix-monthSPI(6SPI)iscalculatedforagriculturaldrought,anda12-monthSPI(12SPI)isusedasanintermediate-long-termdroughtindexforhydrologicaldroughtanalysesandapplications.

Figures 4.18 and 4.19 present the SPI values calculated for Iraq and Kurdistan Region from 1980 to 2011 andprojectedvaluesforthenext15-years(2012-2026),respectively.Figure4.18.aindicatesthatanon-uniformcyclicpatternofdrought/wetperiodswasobservedinIraqfrom1982to2011.Noticeabledroughts,onseasonalbasis,wereobserved to exist in four years during the studiedhistorical record, particularly in 2000, 2006, 2008, and2009.Ingeneral,droughtscommonlyoccurredatthebeginningoftherainyseason,reflectedbyeitheradelayinprecipitationeventsorreductionintheprecipitationquantities.However,inIraq,thehighestdroughtmagnitudesatthenationallevelweredetectedinthegovernoratesofKirkuk,Basrah,Babil,andDiyala(averageSPIvaluesaround−2.18, -2.13, -1.96,and -1.90, respectively).ThegovernoratesofMuthannaandBaghdadhave furtherenduredmoderatetoseveredroughts,particularlyin1990and1997(SPIvaluesaround-1.63and-1.51,respectively).ThehighestdroughtmagnitudeoccurredinthegovernorateofNinewa(averageSPIvaluesaround−2.28in2008).Incontrast,Muthanna,Anbar,andMissanrecordedthehighestwetmagnitudes(averageSPIvaluesaround2.22,2.00,and1.95,respectively),whilethehighestwetmagnitudeexistedinthegovernorateofNinewa(averageSPIvaluesaround 2.39 in 1988).

FIgURE 4.18.A: 3 SPI, 6 SPI, AND 12 SPI vAlUES FOR IRAq (1980-2011)

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AstheSPIanalysisshows,theseverityofdroughtinIraqhasworsenedsignificantlyduringthepasttwelveyears.TheSPIvaluescalculatedfrom1998to2011showthatsignificantdroughtstookplacewhenthenumberofmonthswithextendedperiodsofprecipitationshortageincreased.Thisdroughtwasaccompaniedbyadeclineinprecipitation,asshownintheprecipitationtrendanalysis.Additionally,theprecipitationtrendalongwiththeSPIanalysis,startingfrom2000,showsthatthecountryhasbeenexperiencingareductioninprecipitationandwaterresourcesaswellasanincreaseindroughtperiods.


Matrix1presentsthelevelsofdroughtseverityaccordingtotheSPIvaluesforthe31-yeardataateachgovernorateinIraq.AccordingtotheSPIvalues,twosignificantdroughtperiodswereobservedacrossthecountryin1999and2008.Moderatetoseveredroughtcoveredmorethan53%and73%oftheIraqigovernoratesin1999and2008,respectively.Attheendof2008,droughtordrynesswasaffecting11governoratesatthesametime,andpartsofthosegovernoratesendured‘extreme’drought,ontheSPIclassificationscale.

Ontheotherhand,itcanbearguedthatwetconditionsprevailedin1993,whennearly67%oftheIraqigovernoratesexperiencedwetconditions.

Thethree,six,and12-monthSPIanalysisshowsthatgenerally,normaltonear-normalconditionswereobservedin thehistoricalrecord.Moreover,moderatedroughtsoccurredmorefrequentlythanseveredroughts,andonlyfourextremedroughtswererecorded.ExtremeconditionsarenotedinNinewain2008,Kirkukin1983and1992,andinBasrah in 2008.

Althoughthereiscurrentlynocomprehensiveassessmentofeconomic,environmental,orsocialimpactsofdroughtinIraq,valuesoftheSPI indicatethatdroughthassignificantimpactsonagriculture.Forexample,thetemporalevolutionofsix-monthand12-monthSPItimeseriesrecorded in 2008 showed thatthegovernorateofNinewahasexperiencedextremetomoderatedroughts.Theanalysisofthesix-monthSPItimeseriesindicatedthattherecordminimumSPIwasobservedin2008and1999.Thedroughtseverityinthistimescalewasevaluatedassevere(SPI=-1.85in2008andSPI=-1.50in1999).Similarobservationswerenotedinthe12-monthSPIanalysis,whereextremeandseveredroughtsrecordedin2008and1999(SPI=-2.28in2008andSPI=-1.90in1999).Similarly,thetemporalevolutionofsix-monthSPItimeseriesforKirkukgovernorateshowsthatsevereandextremedroughtstookplacein1983and1992,withSPIvalues -1.74and-2.17,respectively.Conversely, the12-monthSPIanalysis indicatedextremeandseveredroughtsin1983and1992,withSPIvalues-2.18and-1.98,respectively.

ItisimportanttonotethattheSPIanalysisfordroughtbehavesalongwithprecipitationpatternchanges.Thatis,adeclineintheSPIvalueisgenerallyassociatedwithareductioninprecipitationobservedatthesameperiodforthesamelocationonbothsides.Forexample,Baghdadhasexperiencedfourseveredroughts,recordedintheyears1997,2006,2008,and2009.Moderatedroughtsoccurredin1987,1999,and2008withSPIvalues-1.21,-1.22,and-1.10, respectively.Thisobservation ishighly relatedto theprecipitationanalysispresentedpreviously,whereareductioninprecipitationbelowaveragebyalmost47%wasobservedin1999.Respectively,itisworthmentioningthatBaghdadisoneofthegovernoratesthatexperiencedfrequentseveredroughts.Therefore,propermitigationplansarerequiredtoreduceadversedroughtimpactsinthegovernorate.

in some governorates other factors play a significant role in enhancing drought, even when little decline inprecipitationisobserved.Forexample,despitethatnormaltorelativelywetweatherconditionsareobservedinthegovernorateofThi-Qarandnosignificantvariationswereobservedintermsofdroughtduetoprecipitationshortage, theSPIvalues forThi-Qarshowfrequentmoderate toseveredroughts in theyears1980-1982,1984,2008-2010,with2009beingtheworstyearwithSPIvalue-1.60.

Onthecontrary,theanalysisofthe12-monthSPItimeseries indicatesthatmoderatetoverywetperiodswereobserved in thegovernorateofNajaf.Extremetoverywet intervalsoccurred in theyears1988and1993,withSPIvalue2.03and1.85respectively.Moderatelywetweatherhasbeenoccurredin1998withSPIvalueof1.48.Nonetheless,thegovernoratehasenduredaseveredroughtin2000,withanSPIvalue-1.54.

Generally,severetomoderatedroughtswereobservedacrossIraqinallgovernoratesindifferentyearsthroughoutthehistoricaldatarecords.yet,governoratesinthesouthernandnorth-westernpartsofIraqarethemostaffectedgovernorateswherethefrequencyofdroughtishigherthanthenorthernandnorth-easterngovernorates.


TheprojectedvaluesoftheSPIaredepictedinFigure18.b.PredictedfutureSPIanalysesindicatethatmoderatetoseveredroughtsareexpectedatcertainlocationsfrom2017to2026,whilemostofthepredicted15-yearsarenearnormal.ThetrendshowsadecreaseintheSPIvaluesalongwiththeconstantdecreaseinmeanprecipitation.Themeanprecipitationforthenext15yearshasbeenprojectedtodecreasebyalmost3%ascomparedtothemeancalculatedfortheperiodfrom1997to2011.Moreover,projectedvaluesindicatethatconsecutivedroughtperiodswillhappeninsixtosevenyearsforexample.ThegovernoratesofDiyala,Ninewa,andAnbarwillexperienceeighttonineyearsofsuccessivedroughtfrom2017-2026.Droughtseverityisalsoexpectedtoincreaseovertime.the analysisofthe12-monthSPItimeseriesindicatesthattherecordminimumSPIestimatedinDiyalais-1.43,-1.83,and-1.90in2017,2022,and2024,respectively.In2026,however,therecordshowsthedroughtseverityinthistimescaleassevere(SPI=-2.03). ThegovernoratesofNinewaandAnbarareexpectedtoenduredmoderatetoseveredroughts,particularlyfrom2019to2026(SPIvaluesaround-1.84and-1.49,respectively).Suchfindingsindicatetheneedforproperdrought resiliencepoliciesandearlywarningandmonitoringsystemstobeadoptedbytherelevantentitiesinthecountry.

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SPIvaluesprojectedfornext15years2012-2026

InregardstotheKurdistanRegion,Figure4.19.adepictsthatdroughtswereobservedonaseasonalbasisduringfouryears,specifically1984,1999,2006,and2008.IntheKurdistanRegion,thehighestdroughtmagnitudeoccurredin thegovernorateof Erbil (averageSPI values around−2.16 in1984). In contrast, thehighestwetmagnitudesexistedinthegovernorateofSulaymaniyah(averageSPIvaluesaround1.90in1993).Matrix2presentsdroughtseverity according to the SPI values for the 31-year historical data at each governorate in Kurdistan Region.

FIgURE 4.18.b: 3 SPI, 6 SPI, AND 12 SPI PROJECtED vAlUES FOR IRAq (2012-2026)


AscanbenotedfromMatrix2, thegovernoratesofErbilandDahukhasrelativelyenduredfrequentperiodsofmoderatelywetconditions,particularlyfrom1992to1995.However,moderatetoseveredroughthasalsobeenobservedacrosstheregion. InSulaymaniyah, twosignificantperiodsofextremedroughtsareobserved in1984and2006.Thethree,six,and,12-monthSPItimeseriesindicatesthatseveretoextremedroughtwasrecordedin2006,withSPIvaluesof-1.67,-1.70,and-2.03,respectively.Furthermore,severedroughtwasrecordedinErbilin1999,withSPIvaluesof-1.55and-1.83forthesixand12-monthtimeseriesSPIanalysis.Dahuk,ontheotherhand,experiencedmoderatedroughtfrom1986-1987,1989-1991,1999,and2008(forexample,theSPIvaluefor2008was-1.45).SuchindicationsfordroughthighlighttheneedforapropermitigationmeasureonthenationalleveltoreducetheadverseimpactsofdroughtinKurdistanRegionasawhole.

Figure4.19.bshowstheprojectedSPI forthenext15years inKurdistan. IncontrasttotheprojectedSPIvaluesobservedinIraq,thepredictedSPIforKurdistangenerallypresentsanormaltrendwheremostoftheprojectedyearshaveanaverageSPIrangingfrom0.04to0.22.Althoughdroughtconditionswereobservedintheregionin1984andcontinuetodeterioratein2008,futureprojectionssuggestthattheregionisnotexpectedtoexperiencenoticeabledroughts.

FIgURE 4.19.A: 3 SPI, 6 SPI, AND 12 SPI vAlUES FOR kURDIStAN REgION (1980-2011)

FIgURE 4.19.b: 3 SPI, 6 SPI, AND 12 SPI PROJECtED vAlUES FOR kURDIStAN REgION (2012-2026)

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Nonetheless, investigatingforthemostfrequentgovernorateatwhichdroughteventsmayoccurinKurdistaninthecoming15years,itwasfoundthatthegovernorateofErbilwillstartexperiencingmoderatedroughtin2020(SPi -1.02),whileitsseverityisexpectedtoincreaseuntil2026(SPI-1.27).Incontrast,thehighestwetmagnitudeisexpectedinthegovernorateofSulaymaniyah(averageSPIvaluesaround0.66-1.32in2012-2026,respectively).Suchfindingshighlighttheneedforproperdroughtresiliencepoliciesandearlywarningandmonitoringsystemstobeadoptedbytherelevantentitiesintheregion.

Basedonthisanalysis,andinrelationtoothercountriessituatedindryandsemi-dryclimateconditions,droughtsinIraqshouldberegardedwithhighconcern.GivenIraq’slocationinaridandsemi-aridarea,droughthasbecomemorefrequentinIraq,especiallyduringthelasttwodecades.LowprecipitationanditsvariabledistributionisthenormconditiontomostcountrieslocatedinNorthAfricaandWestAsia.Moreover,theavailablewaterpercapitainsomeArabcountriesisalreadybelowtheseverepovertylevel.ThisputsIraq,amongothercountries,inaplacewhereseriousactionsondroughtmanagementmustbeadopted.Accordingtothe2007ESCWAreportondroughtintheArabWorld,the1999droughtcausedSyriaanestimatedlossof40%ofcerealgrainproduction,aswellasareductioninlivestockproduction.AsimilardroughtperiodwasobservedinIraqinthesameyear.InJordan,droughtinthesameyearcausedadeclineinproduction,witharecordedlossof1%ofcerealsand40%ofredmeatandmilk.ThereportalsoindicatedthatthesmallfarmersandherdersweretheoneswhowerethemostaffectedbydroughtinJordan.

Duringthelasttwodecades,inNorthAfrica,Moroccoexperienceddroughteventsfrom1980to1985and1990to1995.Thisdroughtsignificantlyincreasedcerealimportsinthecountry(mainlywheatforbread)tomeettheneedsofthepopulation.Duetothedroughtof1999to2000,thecountry’simportsofwheatnearlydoubledin2001.AsinMorocco,Tunisiasufferedalsodroughtduringthesameperiods(1982to1983and1993to1995).InMauritania,twosuccessivedryyearsledtocropfailureandaseverereductioninpastureproduction,whichresultedinhighfoodandfeedprices.Basedontheaboveanalysis,thoseimpactswouldbereplicatedinIraqincaseofdrought.

thus, a comprehensive action plan for drought mitigation is required. the plan implies, among other components, a drought early warning system, drought mitigation programmes, and various policies and regulations. For example, some arid agricultural zones use a micro-finance strategy. the strategy has been feasible in Morocco, as one of the Arab countries that adopted successfully the insurance approach in cereal production, is based on the difference between average and potential yields, specifically in livestock production.

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MAtRIx 1: DROUght SEvERIty ACCORDINg tO SPI vAlUES FOR thE 31-yEARS hIStORICAl DAtA At EACh gOvERNORAtE IN IRAq

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

3-M NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MD NN NN NN6-M NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN VW NN NN NN NN VW NN NN NN NN NN SD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN SD NN NN NN12-M VW VW NN NN NN NN NN NN EW NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN SD MD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN ED SD NN NN

3-M NN NN MD MD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN SD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN6-M NN NN MD SD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN ED MD NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN12-M NN NN MD ED NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN SD SD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MD NN MW NN NN MW3-M NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN6-M NN NN VW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN VW NN NN NN NN NN MD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MD NN NN NN12-M NN NN VW NN NN NN NN MD NN NN NN NN NN VW NN NN NN NN NN SD SD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN SD MD NN NN

3-M NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN6-M NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MD MD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MD NN NN NN12-M MW MW MW NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN MW MD SD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN SD MD NN MD3-M NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN6-M NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MD NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN MD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MD NN NN NN12-M NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MD NN MW NN NN NN VW NN NN NN SD MW MD MD NN NN NN NN NN SD NN SD SD NN NN3-M NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN6-M NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN MW NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN12-M NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN MW NN VW NN NN VW SD MD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN SD MD NN NN3-M NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN6-M NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MD MD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN12-M MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN VW NN NN NN NN MW MD MW NN NN MW SD SD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MD MD NN NN3-M NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN6-M NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN MD MD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN12-M MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN VW NN NN NN NN VW NN MW NN NN MW SD SD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MD MD NN NN3-M NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN6-M NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN12-M NN NN NN SD NN NN NN NN MW NN MD MD NN VW NN NN MW NN VW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MD NN NN3-M NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN6-M NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN12-M NN NN NN MD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN VW NN MW NN NN MW NN MW MW NN NN NN NN MD MD MD SD MD NN3-M NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN6-M NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN MW NN MD NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN MD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN12-M NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN EW NN MD NN NN VW NN NN NN NN MW MD SD NN NN MD NN NN NN NN MD NN NN NN3-M NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN6-M NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN

12-M NN NN NN MD MD NN NN NN NN NN MD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN VW MW NN NN NN NN VW MW MD NN MD MD NN NN3-M NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN SD NN NN NN NN NN6-M NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN SD NN NN NN NN NN12-M MD MD MD NN MD MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN VW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW MD SD MD NN3-M NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN6-M NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MD NN NN MW NN MW NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN12-M NN NN NN MD NN NN NN NN NN NN SD NN NN VW NN MW NN NN EW EW NN NN NN NN NN NN MD NN NN MD NN NN3-M NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN SD NN NN NN NN NN6-M NN NN NN NN NN NN VW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN SD NN NN MD NN NN12-M NN NN NN NN NN NN VW NN NN MD NN NN MW MW NN NN VW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MD ED NN NN

EW Extremely Wet VW Very Wet MW Moderately Wet NN Near Normal MD Moderately Dry SD Severely Dry ED Extremely Dry

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6-M NN NN NN NN NN NN VW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN SD NN NN MD NN NN12-M NN NN NN NN NN NN VW NN NN MD NN NN MW MW NN NN VW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MD ED NN NN


! "#$%&' ( )*+, -Governorate SPI Type 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

3-M SPI NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW MW NN NN NN NN NN MD NN NN NN NN NN NN MD NN NN NN NN NN6-M SPI NN NN MW NN MD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN VW MW NN NN NN NN NN SD NN NN NN NN NN NN MD NN MD NN NN NN12-M SPI NN MW MW NN SD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN VW VW MW MW NN NN NN SD MD NN NN NN NN NN MD NN SD MD NN NN3-M SPI NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN SD NN NN NN NN NN6-M SPI NN NN NN MD MD NN NN MD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN MD NN NN MW NN NN NN SD NN NN NN NN NN12-M SPI NN NN NN MW ED NN MD MD NN MD NN MD NN NN MW MW NN NN VW MD NN NN NN MW MW NN ED NN NN NN NN NN3-M SPI NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MW NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN6-M SPI NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MD MD NN NN VW MW NN NN NN NN MD NN NN NN NN NN NN NN NN MD NN NN NN12-M SPI NN NN NN NN SD NN MD MD MW MD MD MD NN MW MW MW NN MW NN MD NN NN NN MW NN NN SD NN MD NN NN NN


Erbil

Sulaymaniah

Dhouk

Basrah

MAtRIx 2: DROUght SEvERIty ACCORDINg tO SPI vAlUES FOR thE 31-yEARS hIStORICAl DAtA At EACh gOvERNORAtE IN kURDIStAN REgION


MAPS 5-6: StANDARD PRECIPItAtION INDEx FOR thE yEARS 2000 (SPI 12) AND 2006 (SPI 12)

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Iraqi - Standard Precipitation Index (SPI 12) MapYear 2000


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Missan

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Anbar

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Missan

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Legend

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Near Normal

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Extremely Dry



Anbar

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Ninewa

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Diyala

Wassit

Basrah

Missan

Salah al-Din

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Baghdad

Legend

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Near Normal

Moderately Dry

Severely Dry

Extremely Dry




4.1.4. SOIL TypES IN IRAQAccordingtotheFoodandAgricultureOrganization(FAO),thefollowingtypesofsoils,withthefollowingsalientcharacteristics,arefoundinIraq,assummarizedbelow29:

Calcario Fluvisols:ThesearestratifiedsoilsofthelowerMesopotamianplain.TheyoccuralongtheriversinnarrowstripsandcoveralargecontiguousareaincentralIraq.FormedinthealluvialmaterialdepositedbytheTigrisandEuphratesrivers,thesesoilsarestronglycalcareoushavingabout20%lime.TheyaregreyishbrownintheEuphratesdepositsbuthavereddishorpinkishtinges inthematerialoftheTigris.Almost invariably, theycontaingypsumbecausethecatchmentareaoftheTigrisandEuphrateshasgypsumcrustsanddeposits.Theorganicmattercontentislow(0.3to0.5%)andthecarbon:nitrogenrationisnarrow(fourtoeight).ThepHis7.5to8.1.Thetexturerangesfromsiltloamtosiltyclayloamandsiltyclay.

Orthic Solonchaks:Thesearestronglysalinesoilscoveringabout70%ofthelowerMesopotamianplain.Mostly,thesesoilscontainhighamountsofhygroscopicsalts(calciumchlorideandmagnesiumchloride)aswellascalciumsulphate,sodiumchloride,andsodiumsulphate.Smallquantitiesofsodiumbicarbonateandsodiumnitratemaybepresent.Theyarestronglycalcareous.ThepHofthesoilgenerallyvariesfrom7.5to8.2andseldommorethan8.5.Suchsoilsarelocallycalled“Sabakh”.

Theotherkindofsolonchaks,occurringalongwith“Sabakh”soils,arecalled“Shurasoils”.Thesehavewhitesaltcrustorsaltefflorescenceonthesurfaceandcontainhigheramountsofsodiumsulphateandsodiumchloridethanchloridesofcalciumandmagnesium.Astheyalsocontaingypsum,noalkanityorsodicityproblemisencounteredwhentheyareleachedandreclaimed.Thesaltefflorescenceispronouncedinwinterandspring,butoftendisappearsorbecomeslessprominentinsummer.

luvic yermosols: Thesearesoilsofthearidareasofoldriverterracesinthenorthernpartofthecountry,wheretheclimateistransitionaltosemi-arid.TheyhavereddishbrownsubsoilsorB-horizon,whichhashigherclaycontentandmorereddishcolourthanthesurfacesoilandthesubstratum.Theyaremoderatelyorstronglycalcareous.Azoneoflimeaccumulationisfoundatabout40cmdepth.Theorganicmattercontentis0.2to0.6%andthecarbon:nitrogenratioisthreetoeight.Withoutirrigation,thesesoilsaresuitableforgrazingonly.Withirrigation,however,theyaremoderatelytohighlyproductive,dependingon,mainly,effectivesoildepthandorganicmattercontent.

Calcic yermosols and gypsic yermosols: Thesearethesoilsofoldriverterracesandoldrockplainsoccurringwithinaridandtruedesertclimates.Thecalcicyermosolshaveaverystrongzoneoflimeaccumulation(with40-60%lime)atabout30to40cmdepth.Thegypsicyermosolshaveastrongzoneofgypsumaccumulationat20to40cmdepth.Overlargeareas,thesesoilshavesufferedfromsheeterosionwiththeresultthatmanypatchesoflandhaveacrustoflimeorgypsumatthesurface.Thesesoilsarevaluableonlyasgrazinglands.Smallareaswithatleast70cmofsoilareirrigatedbypumpsfromtheTigrisRiver.

Cambic Arenosols:Theseareverysandysoilsofstablesanddunesoccurringinthenorthernpartofthecountryinasemi-aridclimate.Thesandduneswerestabilizedbyvegetationduringthelastpluvialage(thelastglacialperiod).Thesesoilshavesubsoils,whicharebrighterandmorereddishthanthesurfacesoilandthesubstratum.Theyarecalcareousandhaveloworganicmattercontent.

Albic Arenosols:Thesearealsoverysandysoils,whichconsistoflightcolouredsandsinthesurfacesoilandoccurinthesouthernpartofthecountry.Theyareformedinstablesanddunesorsandridges.Exceptfortheircolour,theyaresimilartocambicarenosols.

29 Buringh, P. (1960). Soils and soil conditions in Iraq. Ministry of Agriculture, Iraq. Cited in Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). (2011). Country Pasture/Forage Resource Profiles/Iraq. Rome: FAO. Available online at: http://www.fao.org/ag/agp/AGPC/doc/Counprof/PDF%20files/iraq.pdf (accessed 1 March 2013).

http://www.fao.org/ag/agp/AGPC/doc/Counprof/PDF%20files/iraq.pdf


Erbil

Al Anbar

Al Basrah

Al Sulaymaniyah

Al Qadissiya

Al Muthanna

An Najaf

Babil

Baghdad

Dahuk

Diyala

Thi-Qar

Salah Al-Din

Kerbala

Kirkuk

Missan

Ninewa

Wassit

± Percentage of cover classes

Water

Vegetation Cover

Light Soil

Dark Soil

Governorates Boundary

Iraqi cover classes

Light - Dark Soil

Vegetation Cover

WaterErbil

Al Anbar

Al Basrah

Al Sulaymaniyah

Al Qadissiya

Al Muthanna

An Najaf

Babil

Baghdad

Dahuk

Diyala

Thi-Qar

Salah Al-Din

Kerbala

Kirkuk

Missan

Ninewa

Wassit

± Percentage of cover classes

Water

Vegetation Cover

Light Soil

Dark Soil


Iraqi cover classes

Light - Dark Soil

Vegetation Cover

Water

Calcic xerosols:Thesearethesoilsofthesemi-aridareas,wheredryfarmingispossible.Theyaredevelopedinoldriverterracesandarecalcareous.Thesubsoilhasareddishbrowncolourandasub-angularblockyorblockystructure.Theorganicmattercontentis0.5-0.9%inareasundercultivation.Underneutralconditions,theorganiccontentisexpectedtobeabout1.0%orhigher.Thesesoilsareverystronglycalcareousbelowabout40cmdepthduetothepresenceofazoneoflimeaccumulation.Duetolowprecipitation,theyformonlymarginalcropland.Atpresent,theyareusedfordryfarmedwheatandbarleyunderasystemofone-yearwheatandone-yearfallow.

gypsic xerosols:Thesesoilsaresimilartothecalcicxerosolsbutdifferfromtheminhavingastrongzoneofgypsumaccumulationinsteadoflimeaccumulation.Theyarealsoformedinoldriverterracesundersemi-aridclimate.Thesubsoilisreddishbrownandhassub-angularblockyorblockystructure.Thezoneofgypsumaccumulationoccursat20to80cmdepth.Thethicknessofthesoiloverthegypsumzonedeterminestheiragriculturalvalue.Onlythosepartsthathaveatleast60cmofsoilabovethegypsumzonearesuitableforcropping.Thesesoilsformmarginaldryfarmland.

Chromic vertisols:Theseareveryclayeysoilsofmountainvalleysandsomepartsoffoothillplains.Theyareabout60-70%montmorilloniteclayanddevelopdeep,widecrackswhendry.Theyhaveameso-reliefofminorhighsandlowsdifferinginlevelbyafewcentimetres.Thehighspotsareabout15to30cmindiameter.Thiskindofmeso-relief,acharacteristicfeatureofthesesoilsisknownas“gilgai”.ThesesoilsarecalcareousandthepHisabout7.8to8.1.Theyaremostlyundercultivationandcontainabout0.5-0.7%organicmatter.

4.1.5. ChANgES IN vEgEtAtION COvERLandutilization,asillustratedinthefollowingmaps,generallyparallelsIraq’sclimaticpatterns.Thethreenortherngovernorates–Dahuk,Erbil,andSulaymaniyah–andthegovernoratesofNinewaandSalahal-Dininthenorth-centralregionaretheprincipalrainfedareas.

SOURCE:INFORMATIONANDANALySISUNIT,2009.CURRENTLyJOINTANALySISUNIT

SOURCE:INFORMATIONANDANALySISUNIT,2012.CURRENTLyJOINTANALySISUNIT

MAP 11: vEgEtAtION COvER IN IRAq (JANUARy 2009)

MAP 12: vEgEtAtION COvER IN IRAq (JANUARy 2012)


tAblE 1: vEgEtAtION COvER ChANgES bEtwEEN JANUARy 2009 AND JANUARy 2012

The available surface and groundwater in Iraq was previously sufficient to meet water needs for agriculture,domestic,andindustrialuse.Recently,however,thetotalannualwaterwithdrawalisestimatedataround45billionm3,outofwhich90%isusedforagriculture;therestisdistributedbetweendomesticandindustrialsupplies.Thisissignificantlylessthantheamountavailableinthepast.

Table1presentsthevariationinvegetationcoverinthecountryfrom2009to2012.Asnoted,significantreductionsinvegetalcoverareainthegovernoratesofDiyala,Salahal-Din,andBasrahwereobservedfrom2009to2012.Giventheextremeandseveredroughtyearsthataffectedthecountryandsignificantlyimpactedthosegovernoratesinparticular, the total area coveredby vegetation inDiyala in 2012decreasedby65%as compared to2009. Thedecreasecanbeattributed,amongotherthings,totheseveredroughtthatstruckthecountryin2008,aswellasasignificantdecline inprecipitation.ThegovernoratesofSalahal-DinandBasrahdidnotfarebetter,wherethedeclineinvegetalcoverdeclinedby47%and41%ascomparedto2009,respectively.


vegetation cover - % area in km2governorates Jan 2009 jan 2012 % changeAnbar 2.2 2.2 0%Babil 87.8 82.1 -6%Baghdad 69.3 66.5 -4%Basrah 18.9 11.2 -41%dahuk 86.4 89.2 3%Diyala 40.6 14.4 -65%erbil 52.9 49.9 -6%Kerbala 22.5 22.4 0%Kirkuk 26.7 27.4 3%Missan 27.1 27 0%Muthanna 2.1 1.7 -19%najaf 3.1 3.2 3%ninewa 11.7 10.4 -11%Qadissiya 50.2 51.6 3%Salah al din 30.3 16 -47%Sulaymaniyah 70.3 59.4 -16%Thi-Qar 41.9 35.3 -16%Wassit 43.6 35.1 -19%


4.2. WATER RESOURcESIraqdependsmainlyonsurfacewaterfromthreerenewablesources:theEuphrates,Tigris,andKarunrivers.TheTigrisandEuphratesriversprovideIraqwithanabundanceofwaterresources.BothriversoriginateintheeasternmountainsofTurkeyandenterIraqalongitsnorth-westernborderwithTurkeyandSyria.Thetworiverstranscendthecountry,theEuphratesflowsforabout1,160kmandtheTigrisfor1,415km,andtheyconfluencejustnorthofBasrah.Downstreamfromtheirconfluence,theriverisknownasShattal-Arab,atidalchannel,whichflows190kmbefore joining the Arabian Gulf.

MAP 13: RIvERS AND SURFACE wAtER

TheEuphratesentersIraqatAl-Ka’imdistrict.InIraq,460kmfromtheborder,theEuphratesreachesagiantalluvialdeltaatRamadiwheretheelevationisonly53mabovesealevel.Fromthatpointon,therivertraversesthedesertedregionsofIraq,losingpartofitswatersintoaseriesofdesertdepressionsanddistributaries,bothnaturalandman-made.Furtherdownstream,nearNassiriya,theriverbecomesatangleofchannels,someofwhichdrainintotheshallowlakeofHammarastheremainderjointheTigrisatAl-Qurna.WithinIraq,theTigrisRiverreceiveswaterfromthreemaintributaries,theGreaterzab,Lesserzab,andDiyala.ThesetributariesoriginateinthemountainsofeasternTurkeyandnorth-westernIran,andflowinasouth-westerlydirectionuntiltheymeettheTigris.Besides,severaltributariesflowintotheriversystemcomingfromthezagrosMountainsintheeast.


Figure4.20providesamapofthemajor(existing)reservoirsysteminIraqacrosstheEuphrates-Tigriswatershed.Thefigurehighlightsthesignificanceofagreeingariparianagreement,theimportanceofupstreamflow-securityandmanagement,andtheimportanceofupstreamflow-securityandmanagementtothefutureecologyoftheentireMesopotamianmarshland.

FIgURE 4.20: MAJOR RESERvOIR SyStEMS OF thE EUPhRAtES-tIgRIS wAtERShED

SOURCE:GEOPOLICITy.(2010).MANAGINGTHETIGRISEUPHRATESWATERSHED:THECHALLENGEFACINGIRAQ.AVAILABLEONLINEATHTTP://GEO-POLICITy.AE/UPLOAD/CONTENT/PUB_1293090043_REGULAR.PDF(ACCESSED1MARCH2013).

Arabian Gulf


Astheaforementionedfiguresnote,asignificantpercentageofIraq’swaterresourcesoriginateoutsidesitspoliticalboundaries.Theseexternalinflowsaccountforaboutthree-quartersofIraq’srenewablewaterresources.Figure 4.21providesabroadbreakdownofsurfacewaterreceivedbysourcecountryforbothTigrisandEuphratesrivers.Only32%ofsurfacewater fromtheTigris,withameanflowof48,000MillionCubicMeters (MCM),originates insideIraq,withevenless,only3%oftheEuphrates,withameanflowof19,000MCM,sourcedfromwithinIraq.Ontheotherhand,respectively56%and88%ofthesurfacewateroftheTigrisandEuphratesoriginates insideTurkey,whilearound9%oftheEuphratesoriginates inSyriaandnearly12%oftheTigrisoriginates in Iran. Iraqisthereforeincrediblyvulnerabletothedevelopmentplansandaspirationofupstreamstates,perhapsalsonowincludingfuturedevelopmentinKurdistanaswell.

FIgURE 4.21: SURFACE wAtER RECEIvED by SOURCE COUNtRy (%)

4.2.1. DROUGHT IMpAcTS ON SURFAcE WATER FLOW IN IRAQDuring theperiod from1971-2003, theEuphrates-Tigris riversystemaggregatedanannualflowranging fromaminimumof44,000MCMinadroughtyearto77,000MCMinayearwithnormaltohighlevelsofprecipitation.Themeanin2006,followingtwoyearsofdroughtin2000and2006,declinedto68,000MCMfrom79,000MCMinearlieryears,however.

TheflowoftheEuphratesintoIraqhasdecreasedovertime.Accordingtoa2006studybytheWorldBank,theinflowoftheEuphratestoIraqshowsameanof19,000-21,000MCM,constituting30%ofIraq’swaterresources.Flowshavevariedwidelybetweenyearsfrom10,000-50,000MCM.Moreover,theaverageflowsincemajorupstreamdevelopmentbegan intheearly1970’shasbeen lowerthanthemeanof30,000-35,000MCMintheprecedingperiod(1932-1970).

ThecurrentannualflowofEuphratesandTigristhatentersIraqhasdroppeddramatically,asillustratedinFigure4.22.Althoughthedeclinecanbeattributedtomanyfactorssuchasdamconstructioninallripariancountriesandincreasedwithdrawalofwaterforirrigation,itisapparentthatyearsofdroughthavecarriedlowwaterintheriverbasin,particularlyinTigris,whichaccountsfor70%oftheIraqiwaterresources.Inthislight,themeanannualflowinEuphratesforexamplehasdecreasedtobecomewithinarangefrom16,000-20,000MCM/year(507to634m3/s)andtheannualmeanis18,400MCM(580m3/s).

SOURCE:MINISTRyOFWATERRESOURCES2009,CITEDINGEOPOLICITy(2010):MANAGINGTHETIGRISEUPHRA-TESWATERSHED:THECHALLENGEFACINGIRAQ

Turkey 88%

Syria 9%

Iran 0%

Inside Iraq 3%

Euphrates River

Turkey 56%

Syria 0%

Iran 12%

Inside Iraq 32%

Tigris River


Tigris inflowsto Iraqhavedeclinedbelowthemeanof43,000MCMfrom1997to2002,as illustrated inFigure4.22.b. Despite the increase in the river inflow from 1992 to 1995,whichwas attributed to high precipitationamountsrecordedacrossIraq,flowsfellsteeplytoaslittleas19,000MCMfrom1997-2001,whichwasrecordedataround40%belowthemeanannualinflow.Someofthelowflowsareinpartattributabletolowprecipitationinthewatershed,butthemoresignificantfactorisduetoupstreamdevelopment,particularlyinthe1970s,whichsawtheinitialfillingoftheKebanDaminTurkeyandtheal-ThawradaminSyria.Therefore,itislikelythatthisdecliningflowtrendwillcontinueasTurkeyandSyriacompleteambitiousirrigationdevelopments,inadditiontotheforeseeabledeclineinprecipitationinthecountrythatwillalltogetherplaceagrowingburdenontheriver.

Inthiscontext,recentpredictionsusedbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeindicatedthatadeclineinTigrisandEuphrateslevelsisexpectedinthecomingyears.Accordingtothestudy,precipitationinthehighlandsofTurkeyispredictedtolessenby10-60%,whichinturnwouldtranslateintoasimilardeclineintheflowintheTigrisandEuphratesriversbynearly29%to73%,respectively,bytheendofthecentury.30

Furthermore, according to a study conducted by researchers from the University of California-Irvine, the totalwaterstorageoftheTigrisandEuphratesbasin—includingpartsofTurkey,Syria,Iraq,andIran—isdecreasingatanalarmingrate.UsingsatellitemeasurementsfromNASA/GRACE,theteamcalculatedthatfrom2003until2009theriverbasinlostaround144km3offreshwater.About60%ofthelosswasattributedtothepumpingofgroundwaterfromundergroundreservoirs.Thiscanbeattributedtotheuseofgroundwatertomeetdemandwhensurfacewatersupplyresourcesarelow,suchasfollowingaperiodofdrought.

FIgURE 4.22: ChANgE OF FlOw FOR EUPhRAtES AND tIgRIS IN MIllION CUbIC MEtRES (MCM) OvER tIME

30 Voss, K. A., et al. (2013). Groundwater depletion in the Middle East from GRACE with implications for transboundary water management in the Tigris-Euphrates-Western Iran region. Water Resources Research, 49(2): 904-914.

SOURCE:MINISTRyOFWATERRESOURCES2009,CITEDINGEOPOLICITy(2010):MANAGINGTHETIGRISEUPHRATESWATERSHED:THECHALLENGEFACINGIRAQ

4.22.A: EUPhRAtES RIvER ANNUAl INFLOW McM

4.22.b: tIgRIS RIvER ANNUAl INFLOW McM

0

500

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1990

-199

1 19

91-1

992

1992

-199

3 19

93-1

994

1994

-199

5 19

95-1

996

1996

-199

7 19

97-1

998

1998

-199

9 19

99-2

000

2000

-200

1 20

01-2

002

2002

-200

3 20

03-2

004

2004

-200

5 20

05-2

006

2006

-200

7

Ann

ual F

low

(MCM

)

Mean annual flow 18,370 MCM

9,560

30,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1990

-199

1 19

91-1

992

1992

-199

3 19

93-1

994

1994

-199

5 19

95-1

996

1996

-199

7 19

97-1

998

1998

-199

9 19

99-2

000

2000

-200

1 20

01-2

002

2002

-200

3 20

03-2

004

2004

-200

5 20

05-2

006

2006

-200

7

Mean annual flow 42,740 MCM !

66,330

18,800


4.2.2. DROUGHT IMpAcTS ON WATER RESOURcES IN KURDISTAN WaterspringsandwellsintheKurdistanRegionarenumerous.TheMinistryofAgricultureandWaterResources(MAWR)statisticalresultsfor2006indicatedthattotalnumberofexploitedwellsinKurdistanRegionwasabout19,448wells.Accordingtothe2011regionaldevelopmentstrategyofKurdistan,nearly79.7%ofexploitedwellsin the regionwereused for drinking, 18.3%used in agriculture, and the restwere exploited for industrial andagriculturalextensionandresearchpurposes.

FIgURE 4.23: thE ShRINkINg OF thE qADISSIyA RESERvOIR IN IRAq bEtwEEN 7 SEPtEMbER 2006 AND 15 SEPtEMbER 2009

tAblE 2: NUMbER OF wEllS by tyPE OF USE AND gOvERNORAtE IN 2006

DROUght EFFECtS IN kERbAlADroughtinIraqhasaffectedthewaterlevelsinanumberofgovernorates.Forexample,thegovernorateofKerbalaexperiencedasignificantdropinwaterlevelsinthemajorlakesandlossinwaterresources.BasedontheGeneralDepartmentofGroundwaterinKerbala,thedeclineinwaterlevelsinRazzazahLakeduringthepastdecadeisduetoinefficientmonitoringandmanagementofthelake,precipitationshortage,anincreaseintemperature,andacontinuouslossofwaterduetoevaporation.Thisinturnhasresultedinsignificantadverseenvironmental consequences, particularly onbiodiversity and cropproduction. Furthermore, according tothe Groundwater Commission, a drop in groundwater storage has escalated the water challenges in thegovernorateassociatedwithpopulationgrowth,increasingdemand,andgroundwaterdepletion.Therefore,thegovernorateofKerbalaneedstoadoptastrictmitigationplanregardingwaterresourcemanagementandimplementmonitoringtoolsinordertoreducethesevereimpactsofprecipitationdeficitanddrought.

SOURCE:NASAIMAGESByROBERTSIMMON,USINGLANDSATDATA/EARTHOBSERVATORy

governorate

wells usedfor drinking

wells used forirrigation

wells usedfor industry

wells used for agriculturalresearch and extension

total %

erbil 2,370 1,800 85 55 4,310 22.20dahuk 1,122 235 235 0 1,592 8.20

Sulaymaniyah 12,022 1,524 0 55 13,546 69.60total 15,514 3,559 320 0 19,448 100

% 79.70 18 1.70 0.30 100.00Source: MAwR/kRg


AlthoughtheKurdistanRegion isendowedwithsufficientwaterresources,theseresourceshavebeengenerallyassessedas limitedandvariable intimeandspace.BasedontheMAWRdata,almost40%ofthesprings intheregionweredepletedduringpreviousdroughtperiods.Additionally,waterresourcesare largelyassociatedwiththe quantity of rainwater and snow falling onmain water basins, and with the policy of operating dams andwaterreservoirsbuiltupstreamthesharedriversinTurkeyandSyria.Theabsenceofinternationalwatersharingagreementsamongthesestatesresultsininstabilityofavailablewaterresourcesfromoneyeartoanother.Table3demonstratesthewaterresourcesavailablein2007byriver.

AsTable3shows,aroundtwo-thirdsofthewaterresourcesavailableinKurdistanareinsidetheregion.Nonetheless,morewatershortagesandreducedwaterqualityareexpectedtooccurinthefuture,inparticularafterTurkey’scompletionofitsirrigationprojectsandSyria’sdevelopmentofitsirrigationprojects.Inaddition,theregionexpectspopulationgrowth,anincreaseinwaterdemand,andclimatechangetoimpactthewaterresourcesinthecountry.Consequently,accordingtothe2011regionaldevelopmentstrategyofIraqiKurdistan,theTigriswillexperienceawaterdeficitreaching40%in2016.31Moreover,thecircumstancesfacedbytheregionin2008negativelyimpactedvegetableproductionandanimalresources,inparticularduetothefollowing:

1)Droughtandunfavourableweatherconditions 2) A water shortage at the tigris and its tributaries 3)Problemsconcernedwithmanagementandoperationofsomedams 4)Insufficientorabsentwater-relatedguidance

Inthislight,efficientandintegratedwaterresourcesmanagementsystems,flexiblewaterpolicies,andlong-termplanswillultimatelyimprovethewatersituationintheregionandmitigatemanyoftheconsequencesthatresultfromprecipitationdeficitandclimatechange.TheMAWRisthereforerequiredtodevelopanupdatedwaterplan(i.e.,comprehensiveplanningofwaterresourcesandlands).

tAblE 3: AvAIlAblE wAtER RESOURCES by RIvER IN 2007

31 Kurdistan Regional Government-Ministry of Planning. (2011). Regional Development Strategy. Erbil: KRG Ministry of Planning.

Rivers length (km) Annual water Amounts (MCM) Inside the Regionthe Khabur 160 2,200 42%

TheGreatzab 392 14,320 58%TheLittlezab 400 7,070 64%

AwaSipi 230 700 100%Serawan 384 5,860 41%

total 1,566 30,150 59.80%Source: MAwR/kRg


4.2.3. DROUGHT IMpAcTS ON GROUNDWATER Groundwater resources form a considerable amount ofwater sources in Iraq. Such resources are far from theexternalimpacts,andtheycanbeutilizedstrategicallyforvariouspurposesincludingagricultureanddrinkingwater,particularlyinplacesfarawayfromsurfacewaterresources.

GroundwateraquifersinIraqconsistofextensivealluvialdepositsoftheTigrisandEuphratesrivers.HighqualitygroundwaterexistsinthefoothillsofthemountainsinthenortheastofthecountryandintheareaalongtherightbankoftheEuphrates.Thealluvialaquiferscontainlargevolumereservoirsandtheannualrechargeisestimatedat620 million m3fromdirectinfiltrationofprecipitationandsurfacewaterrunoff.32

Theaquiferinthenortheastofthecountryhasanestimatedsustainabledischargeofbetween10and40m3/s,atdepthsoffiveto50meters.TheaquifersontherightbankoftheEuphratesRiver,however,arefoundatdepthsupto300mandhaveanestimateddischargeof13m3/s33.

FIgURE 4.24.A: wAtER vARIAtIONS IN qADISSIyA RESERvOIR

Groundwater withdrawals are small compared to surface water. The safeyield of these aquifers is estimated atabout 1,200 MCM annually, about 2%of the nation’s annual water budget.34 Some groundwater resources remain to bedeveloped,and littledataandanalysisare available. Elsewhere in the country,groundwater exists, but the salinity is fartoohighforagriculture,withlevelshigherthan10dS/m.

Inthelastdecade,anumberofgroundwaterresources across Iraq experienced adeclineinwaterlevels.Forexample,Figure4.24.a depicts the elevation of thewaterin Qadissiya reservoir between January2003andDecember2009.Theelevationisaproxymeasurementforthetotalvolumeof water stored. Figure 4.24.a also shows thewaterstoragefortheentirestudyareaasmeasuredbyGravityRecoveryandClimateExperiment(GRACE)inthesameperiod.35Thegreylinedepictstotalwaterstorageintheregion–groundwater,surfacewater,andsoilmoisture–whilethegreenlinedepictschangesinsurfacewater.Thedifferencebetweenthosetwolinesreflectsthechangeinwaterstoredinundergroundaquifers(groundwater).

32 UNESCWA (2001) as cited by: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). (2009). Irrigation in the Middle East region in figures AQUASTAT Survey 2008. Rome: FAO.33 Ibid.34 World Bank. (2006). Iraq: Country Water Resource Assistance Strategy - Addressing Major Threats to People’s Livelihoods. Washington DC: World Bank.35 NASA Earth Observatory. (2013). Freshwater Stores Shrank in Tigris-Euphrates Basin. Available online at: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=80613.

SOURCE:GRAPHSBASEDONDATAFROMTHEUCCENTERFORHyDROLOGICMODELLING.CAPTIONByMIKECARLOWICzBASEDONTExTSFROMTHEJETPROPULSIONLABORATORy,

AMERICANGEOPHySICALUNION,ANDTHEUNIVERSITyOFCALIFORNIA–IRVINE,MARCH2013.

-200

-100

0

100

120

130

140

150

Water Storage (millimeters)

Total

Surface

Qadissiya Reservoir Elevation (meters)

September 7, 2006

September 15, 2009

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view


Datashowaseasonalfluctuationoftotalwaterstorageandanoveralldownwardtrend,suggestingthatgroundwaterisbeingpumpedandused faster thannaturalprocessescanreplenish it.Aboutone-fifthof thewater losses inthisQadissiyareservoir intheTigris-Euphratesbasincamefromsnowpackshrinkingandsoildryingup,partlyinresponsetoa2007drought.Anotherfifthofthelossesiscausedbyalossofsurfacewaterfromlakesandreservoirs.Themajorityoftheloss–approximately90km3–wasduetoreductionsingroundwater.Thatbeingthecase,waterlevelsareexpectedtosignificantlydeclineinthecomingyearsasforeseeabledroughtyearsareexpectedtotakeplace,particularlyinreservoirslocatedindroughtvulnerableareasasQadissiya,Diyala,andNinewa.

4.2.4. DAMS IN IRAQ Intotal,therearenow40majordamsintheTigris-Euphratesregion,insideandoutsideIraq.InIraqandSyria,thecombinedstoragecapacityofalldamsis22,880MCM.AlthoughontheTigriswaterretentioncapacityispresentlylessthanontheEuphrates,it isnonethelessconsiderable.IraqcurrentlyexercisesthegreatestcontrolonTigriswaters.ThemassiveTharthardiversionreservoiraccountsfor69%ofthecountry’s105,950MCMgrossstoragecapacity,whichisdoublethemeanannualflowoftheTigrisRiverof52,600MCM.36MajorIraqidamsintheTigris-EuphratesbasinarepresentedinTable4.

tAblE 4: MAJOR DAMS AND bARRAgES IN thE tIgRIS-EUPhRAtES bASIN

36 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). (2001). The Mesopotamian Marshlands: Demise of an Ecosystem. Available online at: http://www.unep.org (accessed 1 March 2013).

Euphrates River basin tigris River basinName of Dam Use River Name of Dam Use River

Al-HindiyahBarrage FlowDiversion Euphrates Al-Adheem HP,Irrigation Al-AdheemHadita HP,Irrigation Euphrates Al-Amarah Barrage FlowRegulation tigrisFallujah Barrage Irrigation Euphrates Al-Faris HP,Irrigation GreatzabRamadi-Habbaniyah FloodProtection Euphrates Al-Kut Barrage Flowdiversion tigrisRamadi-Razzazah FloodProtection Euphrates darbandikhan Irrigation Diyala

dibbis Irrigation LittlezabDiyalaBarrage Irrigation Diyaladokan Irrigation LittlezabHamrin Irrigation DiyalaMosul HP,Irrigation tigrisSamarra-tharthar Flowdiversion tigrisSennacherib FlowRegulation tigris

Source: the Mesopotamian Marshlands: Demise of an Ecosystem, UNEP (2001)

http://www.unep.org


4.2.5. THE IRAQI MARSHLANDSTheIraqiMarshlandsorMesopotamianMarshes,originatingbytheTigrisandEuphratesRiverssysteminthelowerpartoftheMesopotamianbasin,wereoncethe largestwetlands intheMiddleEastcoveringanareaof10,500km2.37TheyplayedanessentialroleinIraqprovidinglocalinhabitantswithfreshwaterandsupportingthelivelihoodof500,000persons,aswellassustainingrarewildlifeandrichbiodiversity.TheMarshlandsextendoverthethreegovernoratesofBasrah,Missan,andThi-Qar.

From 1970-2003, a combination of over-exploitation, political reprisal against the population, and a lack ofcoordinatedmanagementdamagedanddepletedtheMarshlandsreducingtheirsizeby90%.Itisestimatedthat,asaconsequence,morethan500,000peoplewereforcedtoabandontheirhomes:95,000relocatedtoIran,300,000wereinternallydisplaced,andtheremainderrelocatedtoothercountries.Theeffectsofmarshlanddrainageonwildlifeweremassivewithseveralendangeredspeciesofbirds,mammals,andfish.

After2003,localpeoplestartedremovingsomeoftheembankmentsontheTigrisandEuphratesriverstoallowwatertoinundatethemarsharea.Sincethen,theGoIhasendeavouredtorestoretheMarshlandsto75%oftheiroriginalsize.Accordingly,differentinstitutionsandorganizationshavesupportedtheMarshlandsrestorationandrehabilitation.Since2006,re-floodingprojectshelpedtheareatorecovernearly50%ofitssizemakingthisgoalrealisticallyachievable.However,theincreasingwaterscarcityanddroughtsthathaveaffectedthecountryduringthelastdecadeareanobstacletotherestorationoftheMarshlands.In2011,however,38%oftheoriginalareawasrestoredwiththeMarshlandsreachinganextensionofabout7,875km2:1,377km2inAl-Hawezamarshes,2,420km2inHuweizahmarshes,1,762km2inAl-Hammar,andtherestineightminormarshes38.

During the last decade droughts reduced the size of themarshes to the same area they occupied in 2003. Asconfirmedby theanalysisof theStandardPrecipitation Index, since2006 the threegovernorateswithmarshesexperiencedmoderatetoextremedroughts.InMissan,moderatehydrologicaldroughtsoccurredin2006,2008,and2009.SeveremeteorologicalandagriculturaldroughtsweretookplaceinThi-Qarin2006followedbymoderateandseverehydrologicaldroughtsfrom2007to2010.Basrahexperiencedseveremeteorologicalandseveredroughtsin2006andmoderateandextremehydrologicaldroughtsin2009.

AsFigure4.24.bshows,in2008themarshlandslost379km2ofwater(1.6%ofthetotalextensionagainst5.6%in2004).Only92km2wererecoveredasof2011.

37 Canada-Iraq Marshlands Initiative (CIMI). (2010). Managing for Change - The Present and Future State of the Marshes of Southern Iraq. CIMI.38 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). (2011). Managing Change in the Marshlands: Iraq’s Critical Challenge. Available online at: http://www.unep.org (accessed 1 March 2013).

http://www.unep


Duetothedrasticreductioninwaterlevels,watersalinity,levelsofchloride,magnesium,andanincreaseincalcium,waterbecamemoreacidic.Furthermore,theamountofdissolvedoxygeninthewaterlessenedandplantdiversitydecreased.39Someofthesechangeshaveledtoincreasedlevelsofillnessinpeopleandanimals,aswellasimposednegativeimpactsoneconomicactivitiessuchasfishing.Consequently,since1997,fishingproductionhascollapsed,and the stock of buffaloes has decreased from80,000 to around 5,000 today. These effects have hadmassiveconsequencesontheMarshlandspopulation,resultinginahighrateofdrought-inducedmigration.40Infact,morethanhalfofthetotalpopulationisconcentratedinruralorsemi-ruralareasandreliesonfisheriesandlivestockfortheirlivelihood.Thecollapseofeconomicactivitiesrelatedtothemarsheshasresultedinincreasingunemploymentandpoverty rates. For example, Thi-Qar is thepoorest governorate in Iraqwith the largest percentageof thepopulation livingbelowthepoverty lineofUS$2.5perday(37.8%)andthehighestunemploymentrate(19%);MissanandBasrahalsoexperiencepovertyandunemploymentratesamongthehighestinthecountrythathaverisenhigherthantheirlevelin2007.

FIgURE 4.24.b: ExtENSION OF MARShlANDS IN 2004, 2008, 2011

39 Ibid.40 See the section on drought-induced migration.

legend land Use

Area in 2004 (km2)

% of total Area 2004

Area in 2008 (km2)


Area in 2011 (km2)


Water 524 5.6% 145 1.6% 237 2.5% Reed 911 9.8% 1246 13.4% 867 9.3% Papirus 228 2.5% 428 4.6% 326 3.5% dark Soil 3346 36.0% 3498 37.5% 3446 36.8% Crop 1276 13.7% 2405 25.8% 2646 28.3% Light Soil 3014 32.4% 1601 17.2% 1830 19.6% total Area 9300 100.0% 9324 100.0% 9352 100.0%

SOURCE:JAU(PREVIOUSLyIAU),2012

2004 2008 2011


Currently,severalministriesare involved inthemanagementof theMarshlands.41 In2006,aspecialMinistryofStatefortheMarshlandswasestablishedtocoordinatethemarshrestorationandsetupalong-termdevelopmentstrategyfortheregion.Moreover,theCentrefortheRestorationoftheIraqiMarshlands(CRIM),createdbytheMinistryofWaterResources,isresponsibleforsupervisingandmanagingthereinstatementofwaterduringtherehabilitationprocess.However,weakinstitutionalcapacityandpoorbudgetexecutionhashamperedtheeffectiveresponse to theneedsof themarshcommunitiesandhabitat42. TheUnitedNationsand thenon-governmentalsector,bothwithinIraqandthroughparticipatinginternationalorganizations,havealsobeenactiveinrestoringtheMarshlandsandimprovingthelivingconditionsofthepopulationintheregion.Asaresult,asofJanuary2011,theMarshlandshadrecoveredto45%oftheircapacityinthe1970s.Nevertheless, it isestimatedthatgroundwaterreserveshavedeclined to59%of their capacity, and theyarenowhighly salineandnot suitable forhumanoragriculturalpurposes.

The restorationof theMarshlandswill positively affect the standard of living of its population. yet, its successstrongly relates to theupcomingprecipitation and the associatedwater availability in the Tigris and Euphratesrivers.Wateravailability is in turn impactedby climate change,upstreamwithdrawals, and storage.ThehealthoftheMarshlandsisinfluencedbythelanduse,wastewater,andpollutionfromothersectorsasagricultureandindustry.Populationgrowthandincreasingurbanizationwillalsoputpressureonwaterdemand,reducingwateravailabilityfortherestorationproject.Therefore,thefutureoftheMarshlandswillstronglydependonhowthecompetingdemandsfromothereconomicsectorsaremanaged.43

41 Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Planning, Ministry of Education, Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Municipalities and Public Works.42 UNEP. (2011).43 UNEP. (2006).

MAP 14: ChANgES IN MARShlANDS ExtENSION 1973-2011

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±Legend

International Boundary

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2011 Marsh Extent

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1973 Marsh Extent

IRAQ - Southern Governorates / Marshland Districts Classifcation Map in 1973 and 2011

SOURCE:JOINTANALySISUNIT(JAU,PREVIOUSLyIAU),2012


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4.3. WATER SUppLy AND QUALITyOverthelastfourdecades,Iraq’sdryyearshavemadetheEuphratesRivermoresusceptibletowaterproblemsofbothquantityandquality.Thelargeevaporationlossestogetherwiththedissolutionofsaltsfromthesoilsofthedepressionsinartificiallakes,inadequategovernance,effectsofwar,andtheuseoftraditionalirrigationmethodscontributetowaterdegradation.Thesefactorsincreasesalinityintheriverwater,hinderingitsusabilityevenforirrigationpurposes.Since2001,forexample,increasingsalinityinthedeltadownstreamhasbeenacontinuousproblem.TheconcentrationofdissolvedsolidshasincreasedtoexceedtheupperpermissiblelimitgivenbytheWHOstandards,whichisequalto1,500mg/l.

Droughts,alongwithhightemperatureand inefficientagriculturalpractices inthecountry,havefurtheraffectedthewaterqualityinthemajorsurfaceandgroundwaterresources.Althoughlittledataisavailableinthisregard,theliteratureshowsthatthewaterqualityoftheEuphrates,usingtheparameterTotalDissolvedSolids(TDS)asanindicatorforwaterquality,variesgreatlyfromplacetoplacealongtheriverandovertime,asFigure4.25presents.Thisvariationisattributedtoacombinationofnaturalfactorsandhumanactivities.AccordingtotheMinistryofWaterResources,betweentheyears2009and2012,theaverageTDSvalueobservedintheEuphrateswasaround700ppmreaching1295ppmatitspeakinDecember2009.TheEuphratesstartswithhighwaterqualityattheheadoftheriverwiththeTDSgraduallyincreasingdownstreamandatthemouthoftheriverintoShatal-Arab,wheresalinityreachesover4,000ppmandthequalitybecomespoor.44

Itisclearlydemonstratedbythefiguresthatsalinityincreasessteadilyalongthestretchoftheriverandmarkedchangeshaveoccurredovertime.Moreover,NassriyaandAl-Samawadistrictsrecordthesteepestdropinwaterquality,whereTDSsignificantlyaugmentsafterdamconstruction.

44 Bomola, A. (2012). Temporal and spatial changes in water quality of the Euphrates River – Iraq. (Unpublished paper). Division of Water Resources Engineering Department of Building and Environmental Technology, Lund University.

FIgURE 4.25: wAtER qUAlIty OF thE EUPhRAtES OvER tIME

467 485 495 510 525

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TDS (pmm) for period 1973-1998 (post Dam construction)

SOURCE:NUMBERSExTRACTEDFROM(AL-HADITHI,1978)AND(PARTOW,2001),

CITEDINBOMOLA,2012


4.3.1. DROUGHT IMpAcTS ON WATER QUALITyDroughtsandriverdeteriorationhavesignificantlyaffectedthequalityofwater in Iraq,especially inthecentralandsouthernpartsof thecountry. Ingeneral, thewaterqualityof theEuphratesRiverhasdeterioratedduetothedecreaseinquantityandtheincreaseinthesalinityoftheflowthatentersIraq.ThedecreaseinflowreleasedfromTurkeyandSyriaviatheEuphrates istheprimarycauseofthealterationofwaterquality,especiallysouthofBaghdad.Increaseinwatersalinityoccursformanyreasons,naturalorman-made.Forexample, ifuntreatedwastewater (either from industrial or domesticuse) or solidwaste reaches awatercourse, it contaminates thewaterandincreasesthesalinity;consequently,deteriorationinwaterqualityoccurs.Moreover,dissolvedfertilizerchemicalsusedontheagriculturallandpollutetheirrigationwater,andwhenthiswaterreachesthewaterways,itpollutesthefreshwaterandincreasestheconcentrationofpollutantsintheriverwater.45

Inthiscontext,thedeclineinEuphrates’waterqualityposesanumberofproblemsforIraq.Wateravailableforirrigatedagriculturewilldiminish.DemandforwaterinIraqhastemporarily lessenedbut is likelytoincreaseastheeconomyrevives.Lowwateravailabilityisaconstrainttofarming,anddegradationofagriculturallandduetosalinizationcouldincreaseas lowerwaterflowsintheEuphratesreducethewateravailableforsalt leaching. Inaddition,theecologicalbalanceintheEuphratesbasinwillbefurtherdisturbed.Alreadyin-streamflowsarelessandthemarsheshavelargelydriedup.Lowerflowsworsentheseproblems.Fallingwaterlevelswillalsoimpacthydropower generation from theHaditha dam on the Euphrates – a problem experienced in December 2005,duringadroughtyear.Finally,thequalityofwaterintheEuphratesislikelytodeteriorateevenfurther.Already,alargequantityofsaltsandfarmchemicalsarebeingwashedintotheriverbyreturnflows.Asupstreamirrigationconsumesmore freshwater and returnsmoredrainageeffluent, concentrationsof contaminants and saltswillincreasesteadily.Costs toagricultureanddomesticwater supplywill increase,whilehealthandenvironmentalproblemswillworsen.

Referencingthe2010and2012IOMstudiesonwaterscarcity,thelackofwater,highsalinity,andpoorwaterqualityhaveadverselyimpactedthedailylifeofvulnerablefamiliesthroughoutthecountry.46

AsshowninFigure4.25,thewaterprobleminthedistrictofNassriyaiscriticalandimpactsmanysectorsinthegovernorate.Theagriculturalsector isthedistrict’sprimarysourceof income,and90%47 of the sector relies on traditionalfloodirrigation,amethodthatwastesagreatdealofwater,severelydamagessoilandincreasesalreadyhighsalinitylevels.Furthermore,theuseofdrainagewaterinagriculturalirrigationsystems,incombinationwithtraditionalfloodirrigationtechniques,leadstowaterlogging,risinggroundwater,andsubsequently,higherlevelsofpollutionandsalinity.MonitorsinthegovernoratesofBabil,Missan,Muthanna,Qadissiya,andNassriyadistrictinThi-Qarhavereportedconsiderableevidenceofpollutedorhighlysalinewaterobtainedfromprivatewellsbeingused as drinking water.

Ontheotherhand,monitorsinthegovernoratesofBasra,Muthanna,Missan,Thi-Qar,Wassit,andQadissiyahavereportedseverewaterscarcityintermsofagenerallackofriverwater,oftenindicatingsalinitylevelsofupto60%,inadditiontosulphurlevels,whichriseabovethatrecommendedforhumanconsumption.OthermonitorsinthegovernorateofThi-Qarhaveindicatedthatsomevillagersarewithoutaccesstothewatergridandareforcedtotravelthreekilometresormoretothenearestriverinordertoobtainsupplies.48

45 Muir, J. (2009). Iraq marshes face grave new threat. BBC News. Available online at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7906512.stm46 IOM. (2010) and IOM (2012). Iraq Mission, Special Report – Water Scarcity, 2012. Available online at: http://www.iomiraq.net 47 Zowain, A., et al. (2010). Integrated Soil Salinity into National Policy and Planning Framework at Al-Nassiriah District. ICARDA Technical Report 8. Available online at: https://iraq-salinity-platform.icarda.org/Iraq%20Salinity%20Platform/Technical%20reports/Report%208-National%20Policy%20and%20Planning%20Framework.pdf 48 IOM. (2012).

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7906512.stm

http://www.iomiraq.net

https://iraq-salinity-platform.icarda.org/Iraq%20Salinity%20Platform/Technical%20reports/Report%208-National%20Policy%20and%20Planning%20


4.3.2. WATER SUppLy AND SANITATIONThetotalamountofwatersuppliedfordomesticusesisaround2.9billionm3peryearwithadailyconsumptionof 7.2 million m3.Around74%ofurbanareasandonly48%ofruralareasarecovered.Manypopulatedareasrelyonwatertanks.TheestimatedaverageamountofwaterpercapitainIraqisaround327litres/person/day.ThisisveryhighcomparedtotheaveragefigureforaggregatepercapitaconsumptioninEUofabout150litres/person/day.Around50%ofthewaterproducedislostinthenetworksasthereisnoadequatemonitoringsysteminplace.Thecontinuityofwatersupplyisreportedtobeatabout77%overall,witharound90%inurbanareasand64%in ruralareas.Moreover, inmostareas,water consumption isnotmetered.90%of installedhouseholdmetersinBaghdadarenot functional.Domesticwater in Iraq is heavily subsidized,with tariffs at 0.0034USD/m3. the estimated revenues coveronly2-5%of theoperationandmaintenance cost. People continue to consumehighamountsofwater,asthereisalackofawarenessoftheimportanceofefficientuseofwaterresources.

Access to drinking waterAccess towater is crucial to satisfy basic physiological needs and have the potential to improve the quality oflifeformillionsof individuals. Its importanceforhumanhealth,well-being,andsocio-economicdevelopmentasreflectedinGoal7oftheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs),whichaimstoreducebyhalftheproportionofpeoplewithoutsustainableaccesstosafedrinkingwaterandbasicsanitationby2015.Moreover,wateriscentraltoachievealltheothergoals.Forexample,improvingaccesstosafewaterreduceschildmortality(MDG4),improvesmaternalhealth(MDG5),andhelpsincombatingHIV/AIDS,malaria,andotherdiseases(MDG6).Moreover,waterisessentialtogrowingfoodandimprovingallaspectsofeconomiesnecessarytoeradicatepoverty(Goal1).Inthislight, inadequateaccesstosafewaterandsanitationservices isresponsiblefor impoverishmentanddiminishedopportunitiesforrelevantpartsofthepopulation.

MAP 15: POPUlAtION wIth ACCESS tO AN IMPROvED SOURCE OF DRINkINg wAtER

Al Anbar

Ninewa

An Najaf

Al Muthanna

Erbil

Diyala

Wassit

Missan

Salah Al-Din

Al Basrah

Thi-Qar

Kirkuk

Dahuk

Al Sulaymaniyah

Babil

Al Qadissiya

Kerbala

Baghdad

% with sustainable access to an improved water source

90.4 - 96.2

81.4 - 90.3

79.0 - 81.3

75.2 - 78.9

74.8 - 75.1

SOURCE:CSO/KRSO/UNICEF,MULTIPLEINDICATORCLUSTERSURVEy2011,FINALREPORT2012


In Iraqtoday91.4%ofthepopulationhasaccessto improvedwatersources49 50 (96.7%inurbanareasand76.5inruralareas).Around58%ofthepopulationuseswaterpipedintothedwelling,5%usespipedintotheyardorplot,9.8%usesbottledwater,and14.9%reliesondrinkablewater fromReverseOsmosis (RO)51 systems.Manypopulatedareasalsorelyonwatertanks.Thetotalamountofwatersuppliedfordomesticusesisaround2.9billionm3peryearwithadailyconsumptionof7.2millionm3.TheestimatedaverageamountofwaterpercapitainIraqisaround327litres/person/day.52ThisisconsideredveryhighcomparedtotheaveragefigureforaggregatepercapitaconsumptionintheEUofabout150litres/person/day.Around50%ofthewaterproducedislostinthenetworksasthereisnoadequatemonitoringsysteminplace.Thecontinuityofwatersupplyisreportedtobeatabout77%overall,witharound90%inurbanareasand64%inruralareas.Moreover, inmostareas,waterconsumptionisunmetered.90%ofinstalledhouseholdmetersinBaghdadarenotfunctional.Peoplecontinuetoconsumehighamountsofwater,asthereisalackofawarenessoftheimportanceofefficientuseofwaterresources.53

There are noticeable differences inwater availability and quality among governorates: only 79.9% of the totalpopulationofDiyalausesanimprovedwatersourceofwhich70.4%ispipedintothedwelling.Lessthan1%ofthepopulationinBasrahreceiveswaterfromthepublicnetwork.InDahuk,92%ofthewaterispipedintothedwelling.InNajaf,Kerbala,andBabil,respectively,73%,52%,and24.7%ofthepopulationreliesonbottledwaterasprimarysourceofdrinkingwater.ThemainsourceofdrinkingwaterispurifiedusinganROsystemfor93.5%inMissan,56.6%inMuthanna,and48%inThi-Qar.54

Amonghouseholdsusingunimproveddrinkingwatersourcesoverall,only15.8%usesanappropriatewatertreatmentmethod(thelowestbeing0%inKirkukandthehighestbeing44.2%inAnbar).55

Many households connected to the public network lack consistentwateravailability.For11.4%ofhouseholds,waterisavailableforlessthanonehour;for26.4%,waterisavailablefromtwotolessthantenhoursperday;andfor23.6%waterisavailablefromtentolessthan24hours.Theavailabilityofdrinkingwaterisreportedas‘badorverybad’by45.3%ofhouseholds.ThepercentageisdramaticallyhigherinMuthanna,Missan,andThi-Qar.

49 Iraq, Central Statistical Organization (CSO), Kurdistan Region Statistics Office (KRSO), & United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). (2012). Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2011 (MICS4), Final Report 2012. Baghdad: CSO, KRSO, & UNICEF.50 According to the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2011, improved water sources are considered: piped water (into dwelling, compound, yard or plot, public tap/standpipe), tube well/borehole, protected well, protected spring, rainwater collection and water from reverse osmosis.51 Reverse Osmosis is a household drinking water purification system commonly used for improving water for drinking and cooking.52 GeoPolicity. (2010). Managing the Tigris Euphrates Watershed: The Challenge Facing Iraq. Available online at http://geopolicity.ae/upload/content/pub_1293090043_regular.pdf (accessed 1 March 2013).53 Ibid.54 CSO, KRSO, & UNICEF. (2012). MICS4.55 Ibid.

tAblE 5: PERSONS ASSESSINg AvAIlAbIlIty OF DRINkINg wAtER

AS «bAD OR vERy bAD» (%)dahuk 22.9

ninewa 42.7

Sulaymaniyah 19.3

Kirkuk 47.5

erbil 8.8

Diyala 45.8

Anbar 51.3

Baghdad 36.0

Babil 60.8

Kerbala 53.6

Wassit 62.3

Salah al-din 50.5

najaf 57.5

Qadissiya 62.9

Muthanna 83.8

Thi-Qar 69.2

Missan 81.7

Basrah 49.5

SOURCE:IKN2011

http://geopolicity.ae/upload/content/


Ontheotherhand,thesanitationservices in Iraqarebelowtherequired level.Only29.6%ofthepopulationisconnectedtothepublicsewagenetworkservices,while40%areconnectedtoseptictanks.56 Most of the sewage infrastructure is in poor condition and requires massive capital investment. Moreover, potable water is oftencontaminatedduetoalackofmonitoringofperforatedwaterpipes.Thepopulationisalsonotawareofpotentialenvironmentalandhealthrisks.Thissituationhascreatedanenvironmentwhereseriousdiseasessuchascholeraandhepatitismayflourishasaresult.

Inthelightoftheabove,thereisaneedtoimprovewatersupply(inparticularinruralareas),watermanagement,andsanitationservices.

4.4. DROUGHT EFFEcTS ON HEALTH Waterisoneofthemostvitalelementstohumanhealthandbasicwell-being.Thequalityandquantityofwateravailableisdirectlyconnectedwithhumansurvival.Hence,droughtanditsrelatedeffectscanaffecthumanhealthindifferentwaysandwithvariousconsequences.Theeffectsofdroughtonhealththatrelatedirectlytoreducedwateravailabilityanddeteriorationinwaterqualitycanbeeasilyobservedandmeasured.However,otherindirecthealthimplicationsduetodroughtonlyappearinthelongrunandarethereforedifficulttopredict.

Firstofall,thereductioninsurfaceandgroundwaterlevelsleadstoahigherconcentrationofpollutants,sediments,andmineralsinwater;secondly,thehighertemperatureisonecauseofreducedoxygenlevels.Asresult,duringadrought,thequalityofwaterisnegativelyaffectedincreasingtheriskofwaterbornediseases,suchasdiarrhoea,cholera,typhoid,anddifferentformsofhepatitis.Higherturbiditylevelsareassociatedwithhigherlevelsofdiseasecausedbyviruses,parasites,andbacteria.

Droughtandtherelatedreductioninfoodsupplycanleadtodeficienciesinproteinandmicronutrients,increasingmalnutrition,andfoodinsecurityamongthepopulation.Moreover,cropscanbedamagedbyinsectinfestationsthatmayoccurasaconsequenceofreducedprecipitation.Deterioratedwaterqualityisequivalenttopoorfoodqualityandraisestheprobabilityofbeingexposedtotoxicsubstances.

Thehigherconcentrationofpollutants inriversandlakescontaminatesthefishpopulationandinturn,exposeshumansandotheranimalsthateatthemtotoxicsubstances.Diseasescanalsobespreadbylivestockthatatefeedgrown with contaminated water.

The exposure of people to “recreational water” (lakes, rivers, swimming pools) in which the concentration ofcontaminantsorbacteriaishighercanresultinillnessoutbreaks(diarrhealorgastrointestinal).Moreover,theneedto savewaterduringadrought seasonmay lead topoorerhygienepractices, resulting thespreadof infectiousdiseases,suchasacuterespiratoryandgastrointestinalillness,whicharemoreeasilytransmittedamongpersonswhenhandwashingiscompromised.

Duringdroughts,thedustyanddryconditionsandtheoccurrenceofwildfiresleadtoanincreaseintheamountofairborneparticles,suchaspollen,fluorocarbons,andsmoke.Theseparticlesirritatetheairwaysandlungsresultinginworsechronicrespiratoryillnesses,suchasasthma,orrespiratoryinfections,suchasbacterialpneumonia.

56 Iraq, Central Statistical Organization (CSO), Kurdistan Region Statistics Office (KRSO), & Inter-agency Information and Analysis Unit (IAU). (2011). Iraq Knowledge Network (IKN) Survey. Available online at: http://www.japuiraq.org/ikn

http://www.japuiraq.org/ikn


AsshownFigure4.26,thegovernoratesofKerbala,Najaf,andBasrahregisteredthehighestnumberofpneumoniacasesbetween2004and2007. In the sameperiod,Najaf experiencedan increase in thenumberof dayswithsuspendeddustintheair(291intotalbetween2004and2007)58.Themaximumnumberofdayswithsuspendeddustwasregisteredin2009(209days).In2010and2011,theintensityofthephenomenondecreased;however,dustwassuspendedintheair formorethan100daysperyear.Theseworryingnumberspredictan increaseofasthmaandpneumoniacasesinthefuture.

Mentalandbehaviouralhealthcanalsobeaffectedbydroughts.Thisistrueespeciallyforfarmers,horticulturalists,andpeoplewhoseincomedependsdirectlyonwateravailability.Thestressrelatedtofinanciallossescanleadtodepression,anxiety,andothermentaldisorders.

4.4.1. DROUght AND wAtERbORNE DISEASES IN IRAqAccordingtotheMinistryofHealth,thehighestnumberofdiseasestransmittedthroughcontaminatedwaterandfood(Cholera,Typhoid,Dysentery,HepatitisB)wasregisteredbetweentheyears2007and2010,duringthemostseveredroughtsthataffectedthecountryinthelastdecade.Theriseoccurredin2008whileasignificantreductioninthetotalnumberofdiseaseshasbeenobservedsince2010.

FIgURE 4.26: tOtAl CASES OF PNEUMONIA by gOvERNORAtE (2004-2007)

tAblE 6: tRANSItIONAl DISEASES tRANSMIttED thROUgh CONtAMINAtED wAtER AND FOOD FOR thE yEARS 2004-2012

57 Ministry of Health, Government of Iraq, personal communication (2013)58 See Figure 4.12: Number of days with suspended dust in the air - Najaf (1980-2011)

SOURCE:MINISTRyOFHEALTH,201357

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000

Missan Thi Qar

Erbil Diyala Anbar

Sulimaniyah Dahuk

Salah Al-din Qadissiya

Wassit Babil

Kirkuk Muthanna Baghdad

Ninewa Basrah

Najaf Kerbala

Total cases of pneumonia by governorate (2004-2007)

Diseases 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012cholera 35 44 2 4533 868 6 2 0 590Typhoid 28,226 33,770 26,150 36,208 58,247 49,094 48,847 33,924 15,114BacillaryDysentery 2,168 1,292 1,364 965 1,527 1,720 1,565 1,465 1,164HepatitisB 1,711 1,610 1,834 2,846 1,252 1,652 4,743 4,311 4,198total cases 32,140 36,716 29,350 44,552 61,894 52,472 55,157 39,700 21,066

SOURCE:MINISTRyOFHEALTH


Diarrhoea deaths and cholera outbreaks in Iraq59

In2011,1,076,131(KRnotincluded)casesofdiarrhoeawhereregisteredinIraq,withBaghdadandNinewamostaffected,followedbyBabilandThi-Qar.Ofthosecases,350leadtodeaths,mainlyinthegovernoratesofNinewa,Baghdad,Basrah,andKirkuk.Thenumberofcasesdecreasedfromthoseobservedin2010(1,220,587casesand526deaths),butthemajorityofthecasesremainconcentratedinthesamegovernorates.

Duringtheperiodfrom2007until2012,threecholeraoutbreaksoccurredinIraq.Thefirst, inSeptember2007,affected4,690personsofwhich24died.TheoutbreakstartedinKirkuk(2,309cases)andSulaymaniyah(870cases),thanspreadtonineoutof18provincesacrossIraq.AccordingtoestimatesbytheMinistryofHealth,morethan30,000peoplesufferedacutewaterydiarrhoea,amongwhich3,315wereidentifiedaspositiveforVibrio cholerae,the bacterium causing the disease.

MAP 16: tOtAl NUMbER OF DIARRhOEA CASES AND DIARRhOEA DEATHS FOR THE yEAR 2011

59 Ministry of Health, Government of Iraq, personal communication (2013)

Dahuk

Ninewa

AnbarBaghdad

Kerbala

Qadissiya

Babil

SulaymaniyahKirkuk

Thi-Qar

Salah al-Din

Missan

Wassit

Diyala

Erbil

Muthanna

Najaf

10

90

13

9

23

19

15

41

17

3

93

7

3

7

0

Basrah

Legend

Number of deaths for Diarrh eo a 20110 - 3

4 - 9

10 - 20

30 - 20

30 - 90

Number of Diarrhoea cases 2011

20000 - 27000

28000 - 33000

34000 - 42000

43000 - 61000

62000 - 120000

Note that Number of deathsdata for KRG are missing

SOURCE:INFORMATIONFROMTHEMINISTRyOFHEALTH,GOVERNMENTOFIRAQ,2013


Thesecondoutbreakoccurredin2008,with868casesintotal,mainlyinQadissiyaandBabil(283and275cases),followedbyBasrahandKerbala(65and63cases).

In 2012, a third cholera outbreak affected northern Iraq: 4,693 cases of acute watery diarrhoea occurred inSulaymaniyah of which 266 were confirmed as cholera. Other 160 cases of cholera were confirmed in thegovernorateofKirkukwhilecasesofacutewaterydiarrhoearegisteredinErbil,Babil,Diyala,andSalahal-Dinwerenotrecognizedascholeracases.TheincreasingpollutionandcontaminationoftheLakeDukanisconsideredthemostlikelysourceoftheoutbreak.60

4.4.2. OthER wAtERbORNE DISEASES61

As shown in Figure 4.29, the number of typhoid and bacillary dysentery cases registered a peak during thedroughtperiodfrom2007to2009.Thegovernoratesthemostaffectedbytyphoidbetween2007and2009wereSulaymaniyahandBaghdad(15%and14%ofthetotalcasesinthecountry)whilethehighestincidenceofbacillarydysenteryoccurredinKirkuk(47%ofthetotalcasesinIraq).

FIgURE 4.27: NUMbER OF ChOlERA CASES IN thE MOSt AFFECtED gOvERNORAtES DURINg OUtbREAkS IN 2007 AND 2009

FIgURE 4.28: NUMbER OF ChOlERA CASES IN thE MOSt AFFECtED gOvERNORAtES DURINg thE 2008 OUtbREAk

60 World Health Organization (WHO), Cholera in Iraq 2012.61 Ministry of Health.

243

1232

3103

138 0

266 316 0

Erbil Sulaymaniyah Kirkuk Baghdad

Number of Cholera cases in the most a ected governorates during outbreaks in 2007 and 2009

2007

2012

7 21

41 63 65

275 283

Anbar Muthanna Najaf Kerbala Basrah Babil Qadissiya

Number of Cholera cases in the most a ected governorates during the 2008 outbreak




4.4.3. DRINkINg wAtER qUAlIty AND wAtERbORNE DISEASESPeoplelivinginruralorremoteareaswhodependonwaterfromprivatewellsandsmallorpoorlymaintainedpublicdistributionsystemsseemstobemorevulnerabletotheriskofdrought-relatedhealtheffects.Thequalityofthesedrinkingwatersourcesisinfactmoresusceptibletowaterscarcityandenvironmentalchanges.Thereductioninwaterlevelsdeterminesabiggerconcentrationofpollutantsandbacteriaresponsibleforthediseasesincreasingthelikelyofcontractingtheinfection.

In2011,thehighestnumberofdiseasesrelatedtowaterandfoodoccurredinthegovernoratesofSulaymaniyah,Kirkuk,Salahal-Din,andNinewawherethepercentageofthepopulationdrinkingwaterfromaprivatewellisthehighest in thecountry.62Thisappears toconfirmtherelationshipbetweentherisksofdrought-related infectiondiseasesandtheuseofprivatewellsfordrinkingwater.

FIgURE 4.29: tyPhOID CASES bEtwEEN 2007 AND 2009 by gOvERNORAtE

FIgURE 4.30: NUMbER OF tRANSItIONAl DISEASES tRANSMIttED thROUgh CONtAMINAtED wAtER AND FOOD IN 2011-2012

62 CSO, KRSO, & JAU (IAU). (2011). IKN.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Babil

Dahuk

Anbar

Wassit

Kerbala

Qadissiya

Missan

Basrah

Najaf

Muthanna

Thi Qar

Diyala

Ninewa

Kirkuk

Erbil

Salah Al Din

Baghdad

Sulaymaniyah

Typhoid cases between 2007 and 2009 by governorate

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

10000 12000

Sula

yman

iyah

Kirk

uk

Sala

h al

Din

Nin

ewa

Mut

hann

a

Bagh

dad

Thi Q

ar

Basr

ah

Erbi

l

Naj

af

Kerb

ala

Diy

ala

Mis

san

Qad

issi

ya

Babi

l

Was

sit

Anb

ar

Dah

uk

N. of transitional diseases transmitted through contaminated water and food in 2011-2012




FIGURE 4.31: pERcENTAGE OF THE pOpULATION DRINkINg wAtER FROM A PRIvAtE wEll

Peoplereceivingdrinkingwaterfromthepublicnetworkarealsoexposedtopotentialriskifthewaterchlorinationisnotadequate.AccordingtotheMultipleIndicatorClusterSurvey201163,in27%ofthehouseholdstested64,therewerenotracesofchlorine inthewaterand in15%theconcentrationfoundwasbelow0.5 (ppm)thestandardconsiderednecessarytopreventwaterbornediseases.

FIGURE 4.32: HOUSEHOLDS WITH NO cHLORINE OR cHLORINE LESS THAN 0.5 ppM

63 CSO, KRSO, & UNICEF. (2012). MICS4.64 CSO, KRSO, & UNICEF. (2012). MICS4.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Nin

ewa

Sula

yman

iyah

Kirk

uk

Dah

uk

Was

sit

Erbi

l

Diy

ala

Sala

h A

l Din

Qad

issi

ya

Thi-Q

ar

Babi

l

Mut

hann

a

Anb

ar

Bagh

dad

% of the population drinking water from a private well

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Baghdad Kirkuk

Qadissiya Kerbala

Muthanna Wassit

Ninewa Babil

Diyala Najaf Erbil

Thi Qar Salah Al Din

Sulaymaniyah Douhok

Anbar Missan Basrah

Households with no chlorine or chlorine less than 0.5

SOURCE:IKN2011

SOURCE:CSO,KRSO,&UNICEF.2012.MICS4.


4.5. DROUght EFFECtS ON POvERty, UNEMPlOyMENt, AND FOOD SECURIty 4.5.1. DROUght, POvERty, AND UNEMPlOyMENtThe relationship between drought and poverty is indirect and not easily investigated. Water scarcity impactspoverty and socio-economic development in differentways. Some effects can be easily observed,while othersaremoredifficulttoassessandquantify.Bothtypesofeffectscanlastforseveralyears.Sincewaterisessentialforeveryhumanactivity(economicandotherwise),thereductioninitsavailabilitynegativelyaffectsthewelfareofthepopulation.Itslowseconomicgrowthandunderminesthelivelihoodsofa largenumberofpeople,oftencontributingtotraptheminpoverty.

Droughtcanincreasepovertyalsothroughthedecreaseinthefundsdestinedtopovertyalleviationprogrammes.Infact,resourcesdesignatedtoreducepovertyorimplementdevelopmentprogrammesneedtobereallocatedtofinanceemergencyreliefandhumanitarianactivities.Theeffectsaretranslatedinaslowingdownofthedevelopmentprocessforthewholecountry.

Theearliestandmostvisibleconsequencesofdroughtrelatetoagriculturalproduction.Infact,agriculturalyieldsdependmainlyonprecipitation,andanyshortageinraintranslatesdirectlyintoproductionlosses.Cropfailureandlivestocklosseshaveimmediateeffectsonfarmers’income,whichisdirectlydependentonagriculturalproduction.Onthecontrary,somefarmersmaybenefitfromdroughtiftheincreaseinpricesishighenoughtocompensateforlossesduetolowerproduction.65However,thesebenefitsarelimitedtotheshort-runsincedroughtcauseslong-termdamagetocropandlivestockproductionthatcanlastforseveralyears.Ontheconsumerside,increasesinfoodpricescauseanerosionofpurchasingpowerformanyhouseholds,whichmayleadtotheirimpoverishment.Crop losses inducedbydrought initiatenegativesupply shocks;however, the relatedeconomic lossesand theirdistributionamongdifferenteconomicactorsdependonthemarketstructureandtherelationshipbetweensupplyanddemandforagriculturalproducts.

Inadditiontoagriculture,severalindustriesoperatingindifferentsectors(chemical,construction,textileindustries,foodproduction)areaffectedbywaterscarcitythroughouttheproductionprocess,sales,andotheroperations,which may result in capital losses and layoffs, thus increasing unemployment. The negative consequences ofdrought on the environment donot cause instantmarket losses, but in themedium to long run they result inserious environmental damage that compromises land and natural resources, thus threatening socio-economicdevelopment.

Inthelongrun,theentirepopulationsufferstheconsequencesofdrought,butintheshortperiod,certaincategoriesof thepopulationareaffectedmoreseverely thanothers. Ingeneral,people living inruralareaswhose incomedependsonagricultureproduction,livestock,forestry,andfisheryarethemostvulnerabletotheeffectsofdrought.Rural,agriculturalpopulationsarealsothemostexposedtopovertyandfoodinsecurity.

65 Prices are expected to increase because the quantity supplied is not enough to satisfy the demand, according to the law of supply and demand. The impact of high food prices on developing countries depends on the interaction of different factors. In general, commercial producers of food will benefit directly from higher prices. For the global poor and the major food importing countries, the impacts will be strongly negative as an even higher share of their limited income will be required for food.


NotwithstandingrecenteconomicimprovementsintermsofGrossDomesticProduct,Iraqcontinuestofaceseveraldevelopmentchallenges,particularlyintermsoffoodsecurity,poverty,andunemployment.AccordingtotheGoI,11.5%oftheIraqipopulationlivesbelowthepovertylineofUS$2.5perday.Thepercentageismuchhigherinruralareaswherethepoorrepresent23%ofthepopulation,comparedto6%intheurbanareas.Massivedifferencespersist across governorates. For example, Thi-Qar, Muthanna, and Ninewa are the poorest governorates with37.8%,29.4%,and26%ofthepopulationbelowthepovertyline,whileSulaymaniyah,Erbil,andBaghdadarethegovernorateswiththelowestpercentageofpoor(0.3%,2%,and2.8%,respectively).Atnationallevel,since2007theoverallpercentagedecreasedby2.4percentagepoints;however,insomegovernoratesthetrendhasbeentheopposite:InThi-QarandMuthannapovertyincreaseddramatically–toalmostdouble–overaperiodoffouryears.

MAP 17: POPUlAtION lIvINg bElOw thE POvERty lINE OF US$ 2.5 PER DAy

Agriculture is an important contributor to the Iraqi Gross Domestic Product (GDP) after oil revenue. It plays asignificantroleinruraldevelopmentandpovertyalleviation,aswellasreducingfoodinsecurityandunemployment.EvenifthecontributionoftheagriculturalsectortothenationalGDPdecreasedto4%in2011(seeFigure4.44),the total labour force working in agriculture, forestry, and fishery remains significant in several governorates.

Al Anbar

Ninewa

An Najaf

Al Muthanna

Erbil

Diyala

Wassit

Missan

Salah Al-Din

Al Basrah

Thi-Qar

Kirkuk

Al Sulaymaniyah

Dahuk

Babil

Al Qadissiya

Kerbala

Baghdad

IRAQ - Proportion of the population living below $ 2.5 \Day (%)March 2013

Disputed Internal Boundaries:

Proportion of the population living below $ 2.5 \Day (%)19.21% - 37.8%

12.51% - 19.2%

8.11% - 12.5%

4.21% - 8.1%

0.3% - 4.2%

UNIraq

SOURCE:JOINTANALySISUNIT,2013


AsshowninFigure4.33,morethan31%ofthelabourforceinWassit(58,174),30%inSalahal-Din(76,169),and24%inBabil(85,252)isemployedintheagriculturalsector66.Intotalalmost800,000personsacrossIraqareworkingintheagriculturalsector.Forthisreason,theiroccupationalstatusandincomesarehighlyconnectedthewateravailabilityinthearea.Ashockinagriculturalproductiondueadroughtseasoncouldpotentiallyleadtoarelevantloss of jobs in the sector.

Afterexperiencingadecreasing trenduntil2007, thepercentageofunemployedpersons rose in2008reaching15.8%.In2011,theunemploymentratewasequalto11.3%atnationallevel(9.2%formalesand20.7%forfemales).Among youth (aged 15-24), 18.2%were unemployed. The differences among governorates are significant: Thi-Qar,Anbar,andDiyalahavethehighestunemploymentrates(17%,16%,and14%,respectively)whilethelowestunemploymentrateswerefoundinKirkuk,Erbil,andNinewa(2%,4%,and5%)67.AssuggestedbytheSPIvaluesforecastedinthemeteorologicalsection,themoderateandseveredroughtsthatwillaffectthecountryinthenext15yearsareexpectedtohavenegativeimpactsonagricultureproduction.AccordingtoWorldFoodProgramme(WFP)68,inIraqtheaveragewheatproductivityisexpectedtofallby12.5%by2020duetoclimatechange,whichwillhaveanegativeeffectonincomeinruralareas.Areductionofaround8%isexpectedforagriculturalincome;furthermore,anincreaseofunemploymentandruralpovertyisexpected.

Ingovernoratescharacterizedbyahighdependenceonagriculturalproductionandwithhigherunemploymentrates,droughtsincreasethevulnerabilityofthepopulations,especiallyfordisadvantagedclasses,suchaswomen,illiteratepersons,orpersonswithlowereducation,forwhomemploymentopportunitiesarealreadylow.

FIgURE 4.33: EMPlOyMENt IN AgRICUltURE, FOREStRy, AND FIShERy (%)

66 CSO, KRSO, & JAU (IAU). (2011). IKN.67 CSO, KRSO, & JAU (IAU). (2011). IKN.68 World Food Programme (WFP). (2012). Food Security, living conditions and social transfer in Iraq. Baghdad: WFP.

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Kerbala Erbil

Basrah Dahuk

Sulaymaniyah Muthanna Baghdad

Diyala Ninewa Thi-Qar

Kirkuk Qadissiya

Najaf Missan Anbar

Babil Salah al Din

Wassit

Employment in agriculture, forestry, and shery (%)

SOURCE:IKN2011


FIgURE 4.34: UNEMPlOyMENt RAtE, 2003-2008 (% OF thE ACtIvE POPUlAtION)

SOURCE:CENTRALSTATISTICORGANIzATION;IKN2011

4.5.2. DROUGHT AND FOOD SEcURITyFood security is simultaneously a sourceandanoutcomeofpoverty.Recurrentdroughts andperiodsofwaterscarcitynegativelyaffect foodproduction,aggravatingthecurrent imbalancebetweenfoodsupplyanddemandinsidethecountry.Accordingtoa2012reportbytheWorldFoodProgramme69,thenumberoffoodinsecureIraqisfellfrom7.1%in2007(2.2millionindividuals)to5.7%in2011(1.9millionindividuals).However,thepictureisnothomogeneousacrossthecountry:InBasrah,21%ofthegovernoratepopulationisfoodinsecure,whiletheratefallsto17%inThi-Qar,and12%inMuthanna;meanwhile,therearenofoodinsecurepersons inSulaymaniyah.ConsideringthetotalnumberoffoodinsecureindividualsacrossIraq,themajoritylivesinBasrah(24.2%,morethan500,000 individuals), followedbyBaghdad (16.1%,more than350,000 individuals), andThi-Qar (14.2%,around312,000 individuals). The food deprived in Basrah also suffer the highest severity70 of food deprivation (14%),followedby those inWassit (12.6%)andThi-Qar (12.5%).Thedistricts suffering fromthehighest levelsof fooddeprivation(between31%and51%ofthedistrictpopulationisfooddeprived)areTelafar,Sinjar,andAl-Ba’aj inNinewa;Al-MidainainBasrah;andNassriyainThi-Qar.

Thehighestprevalenceoffooddeprivationisobservedamongsthouseholdswithinthepoorestincomequintile,whereitreachesthevalueof13%,comparedto2%ofhouseholdswithinthesecondquintile.Foodexpenditurerepresents50%ofconsumptionexpenditureforhouseholdsinthelowestincomequintilewhilerepresenting27%forthoseinthehighestquintile.71

69 WFP. (2012).70 The severity of food deprivation is estimated as the difference between the minimum dietary energy requirements and actual dietary energy consumption of the food deprived.71 WFP. (2012).

28.1 26.8

17.9 17.5

11.7 15.3

11.3

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011

Unemployment rate, 2003-2008 (% of the active population)


Amongthefooddeprived,theheadofhouseholdmaybeunemployedoreconomicallynon-active(9%),anagriculturalworker(9%),oranunskilledworker(7%).Householdsheadedbyoneofthesecategoriesalsoexperienceahigherseverityoffooddeprivation.Thehighestseverityissufferedbyfooddeprivedhouseholdheadedbyawoman.

Among thepopulationnon-deprivedof food, 14% is vulnerable to food insecuritymeaning that consumes lessthantheaveragedietaryenergyrequirementsof2161kilocaloriesperday.72Missan,Wassit,Thi-Qar,Basrah,andMuthannaarethegovernoratesmostvulnerabletofoodinsecurity.

Theeffectsoffoodinsecurityarereflectedinthepopulation,especiallyonthemostvulnerableaschildren.In2011,8.5%of Iraqichildrenunderfivewereunderweight:13.4% inAnbar,11.2% inBaghdad,10.4% inNajaf,3.7% inKirkuk,4.1%inSulaymaniyah,and5.1%inBabil.73Almost25%(from28-35%inAnbar,Baghdad,Diyala,andNajaf)ofchildrenareseverelyormoderatelystunted74while10%areseverelystunted.Sevenpercentofchildrenareseverelyormoderatelywasted75and4%areseverelywasted.Ingeneral,thepercentageofmalnourishedchildrenislowerinKurdistanRegioncomparedtotherestofthecountry.

MAP 18: FOOD DEPRIvAtION – DIStRICt lEvEl

SOURCE:WORLDFOODPROGRAMME,2012

72 According to the FAO definition: “The Average Dietary Energy Requirements (ADER) is the minimum energy requirement necessary to perform a moderate activity level for an individual of average physical stature in a country.”73 CSO, KRSO, & UNICEF. (2012). MICS4.74 Too short for their age.75 Too thin for their age.

0 - 5.0%

5.1 - 15.0%

15.1 - 30.0%

30.1 - 51.0%

Prevalence of Food Deprivation (%)

Anbar

Basrah

Erbil

Missan

Ninewa

Sulaymaniyah

Babil

Dahuk

Kerbala

Muthanna

Qadissiya

Thi-Qar

Baghdad

Diyala

Kirkuk

Najaf

Salah al-Din

Wassit


SOURCE:WORLDFOODPROGRAMME,2012

MAP 19: PREvAlENCE OF vUlNERAbIlIty tO FOOD INSECURIty by gOvERNORAtE

AsignificantportionofallfoodconsumedinIraqcomesfromthePublicDistributionSystem(PDS)76,whichrepresentsthemainsourceoffoodforthepoorestIraqis.HouseholddependencyonthePDSdecreasedfrom67%in2007to57%in2011,butitstillplaysanimportantroleinpreventingfoodinsecurity.TheratioofthemarketvalueofthePDSrationtototalhouseholdexpenditurehasdeclinedduringthelastfewyears.However,accordingtoWFP,thePDSstillprovidesanecessarybarrier to food insecurity,and fulleliminationof thesystemwould increase fooddeprivationby9%.77

Sincetheinternalsupplyisnotenoughtosatisfytheneedsofthepopulation,foodconsumptionislargelysatisfiedthroughfoodimports.Foodimportdependencyreacheditshighestvaluesbetween2006and2008;itfellin2009and2010butincreasedto9%in2011(seeFigure4.36).Climatechangeandthegrowingpopulationareexpectedtofurtherincreaseimportdependencyinthecomingyearswithrelevantimpactonnationalfoodsecurity.

Droughtscausefoodinsecurityandpovertytoincrease,especiallyinruralareaswheremostofthepopulationreliesonagricultureasitsmainsourceoflivelihood.

76 The PDS was established over two decades ago in response to the extensive hunger due to wars and sanctions and it provides important support to millions of poor and vulnerable Iraqis today.77 WFP. (2012).

Anbar

Basrah

Erbil

Missan

Ninewa

Sulaymaniyah

Babil

Dahuk

Kerbala

Muthanna

Qadissiya

Thi-Qar

Baghdad

Diyala

Kirkuk

Najaf

Salah al-Din

Wassit

0 - 5.0%

5.1 - 15.0%

15.1 - 21.0%

21.1 - 30.0%

Percent of vulnerable individuals


According toWFP, theaveragewheatproductivity isexpected to fallby12.5%by2020due to the reduction inprecipitationandtheincreasingtemperature.Thiswillinturnincreasefoodinsecurityandpoverty,especiallyforthosepeoplewhoseincomerelatestoagricultureproduction.Theruralpopulationisthemostsensitivetoclimatechangeanddrought.Theincomeofruralfarmersisestimatedtodecreaseby8%by2020,andasaconsequence,theaveragedailyintakeofdietaryenergyofresidentsmaydecreaseby3%.

Sincetheeffectsofclimatechangeonagricultureandfoodsecurityaregenerallyrecognised,themostvulnerablehouseholdsneedtobeassistedinordertoavoidafurtherdeteriorationoftheirlivelihoods.

FIgURE 4.35: FOOD PRODUCtION INDEx (1990-2011)

FIgURE 4.36: RAtIO OF FOOD ExPORtS tO FOOD IMPORtS (2004-2011)

78 World Bank Indicators, available online at http://www.worldbank.org

SOURCE:WORLDBANKINDICATORS78

SOURCE:CENTRALBANKOFIRAQ,ANNUALBULLETIN2004-2011

0 20 40 60 80

100 120

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Food Production Index (1990-2011)

Food Production Index Food Production Index - Average 1990-2011

4.9

7.4

12 11.3

10

5 6

9

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

http://www.worldbank.org


4.6. DROUght-INDUCED MIgRAtIONProtractedperiodsofdroughtandtheirrelatedeffectsareamongthereasonsforpopulationmovementsinIraq.Whiledisplacementduetosecuritythreatshasdecreasedrecently,water-relatedmigrationregisteredanoppositetrendinthelastfewyears.Therecentdroughtsthataffectedthecountryandtheirconsequenteffectsonwateravailability,agricultural,andindustrialproductionresultedinhigherunemploymentratesandincreasingpoverty,malnutrition,andfoodinsecurity.Therelatedlossofincomehaspushedmanyhouseholdstomovefromdryzonestoareaswithimprovedwateravailabilitysuchascitiesleadingtotheabandonofruralareasandaworseningoflivingconditionsinurbanzones.

MAp 20: pERcENTAGE OF IDpS cITING DROUGHT AS MAIN REASON FOR DISpLAcEMENT

SOURCE:IOM,2012

Anbar

Babil

Baghdad

Basrah

Dahuk

Diyala

Erbil

Kerbala

Missan

Muthanna

Najaf

Ninewa

Qadissiya

Salahal-Din

SulaymaniyahKirkuk

Thi-Qar

Wassit

% of IDPs families citing drought as a reason for displacement from the governorates of origin

0% - 1%

2% - 12%

13% - 24%

25% - 40%

41% - 94%




BetweenDecember2007andJune2009,4,263families(25,578individuals)weredisplacedduetodroughtinIraq,withmorethan80%fromthegovernoratesofSalahal-DinandNinewa.79In2012,theInternationalOrganizationof Migration (ioM)80reportedthat11%oftheassesseddisplacedfamiliescountrywidemigratedfromtheirplaceoforiginduetowaterscarcity.Insomegovernorates,droughtinducedmigrationfarexceededmigrationrelatedtosecurity,conflicts,orlackofunemploymentopportunities.InMuthanna,94%oftheassessedIDPsweredisplacedfordroughtreasons.DroughtaffectedmigrationflowsalsointhenortherngovernorateofErbilwhere39%ofthetotalIDPswereforcedtomigrateduetowaterscarcity.OftheIDPsassessed,50%arelocatedinMuthanna,35%inSalahAl-Din,and25%inbothKirkukandBasrah.AmongtheIDPsdisplacedfrom2000to2012,thepercentagesofthosewhoreportedwaterscarcityorwatersalinityasmainreasonfordisplacementin2008,2007and2006were26%,21%,and14%,respectively,inconcomitancewiththedroughtsthataffectedthecountryinthesameyears.81

The south of Iraq experienced huge populationmovement due to the drainage of theMarshlands: In Thi-Qar,Missan,andBasrah,respectively81%,33%,and12%ofIDPsweredisplacedduetotheinsufficiencyofwater.

FIgURE 4.37: PERCENtAgE OF IDPS DISPlACED by wAtER SCARCIty

SOURCE:IOM,2012

Drought,watersalinity,andpollutionarealsoamongthemajorfactorspreventingIDPsfromreturningtotheiroriginalcommunities.Inaddition,droughtispotentiallyacauseofpsychologicaldamageamongstalreadyvulnerableIDPspopulations.Waterscarcityrepresentsafurthersourceofstressforthosefamiliesthathavealreadybeenforcedtoleavetheirhousesandnowfacingasecondorthirddisplacementasresultofdrought.Migrationassurvivalstrategyagainstenvironmentalchangesanddroughtcanhavesignificantenvironmentalrepercussionsforareasoforiginandofdestination,particularlyinthecaseofmassmigration.

InIraq,theruraltourbanmigrationisincreasingasresultofwaterscarcity,mainlyinthosegovernorateswherepeoplerely heavily on agriculture, livestock, and fishing. Consequences of the population flow include rapid, unplannedurbanisationand increasingpressureonurban infrastructureandserviceprovision thathindersdevelopmentandundermineseconomicgrowth.Migrantsabandontheirareasoforigininsearchofbetteropportunitiesinurbanareas,butoftentheyenduplivinginpoorqualityhousingwithlimitedcleanwater,sanitation,andeducationservices.

79 IOM. (2010).80 IOM. (2012). 81 Ibid.

4% 3% 2% 5%

10% 9%

14%

21%

26%

4% 1% 1% 1%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Percentage of IDPs displaced by water scarcity


MAP 21: PERCENtAgE OF IDPS CItINg DROUght AS MAIN REASON PREvENtINg THEIR RETURN TO THE pLAcE OF ORIGIN

Theimpactofdroughtonfutureforcedmigrationdependsonthemeteorologicalevolutionintheregion,populationgrowthanditsdistribution,andtheeffectivenessoflocalandnationaladaptivestrategies.

Anbar

Babil

Baghdad

Basrah

Dahuk

Diyala

Erbil

Kerbala

Missan

Muthanna

Najaf

Ninewa

Qadissiya

Salahal-Din

SulaymaniyahKirkuk

Thi-Qar

Wassit

% of IDPs citing drought as main reason preventingthe return to the governorate of origin

0% - 1%

2% - 4%

5% - 17%

18% - 43%

44% - 92%



SOURCE:INFORMATIONFROMIOM,2012


4.7. HyDROpOWER pRODUcTION IN IRAQHydropowergenerationrepresentsthemostimportantrenewableenergysourceinIraqaccountingfornearly10%oftheelectricitygenerationmixin2010(aroundfiveTWh)82.Theuseofwaterasasourceofenergyisgenerallyasafeenvironmentalchoice.Notwithstandingtheimpactonenvironmentfromconstructionofthedam,oncetheplantisinstalled,itsproductionhasanoticeablyloweroutputlevelofCO2emissionsthanfossilfuelpoweredenergyplants.Sinceelectricityproductionofthistyperequireswater,thetotalgenerationislinkedtowateravailabilityinthereservoir;hence,itishighlyvulnerabletodroughtevents.

Mosthydropowerproductionoccurs inthenorthof thecountrywherethe installationofadditionalsmall-scalehydropowerstationsislikelytoservemoreremotecommunities.Itisprojectedthatthegenerationcapacitywillincreasemodestlyuntil reaching14TWh in2035 through theexpansionofhydroelectricitymainly inKurdistanRegionbutalso in the restof Iraq83.However, thisprojectionwill largelydependon the futureprecipitation inthecountry,decisionstakeninothercountriesthataffectwateravailabilityinthemainIraqirivers,andthewatermanagementpoliciesoftheMinistryofWaterResources.

Theshareofelectricityproductionfromhydroelectricsourcesoverthetotalproductionreachedthepeakof20%in2005butitslowlydroppedbacktoitslevelin1990startingfrom2006.AsshowedinFigure4.38,in2008and2009,thepercentagedecreasedto9%and7%,suggestingapossiblecorrelationwiththedroughtthataffectedthecountryinthesameperiod.

FIGURE 4.38: TREND IN ELEcTRIcITy pRODUcTION FROM HyDROELEcTRIc SOURcES(% OF tOtAl PRODUCtION)

82 International Energy Agency (IEA). (2012). World Energy Outlook Special Report 2012 - Iraq Energy Outlook. Available online at:http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2012/iraqenergyoutlook/Fullreport.pdf (accessed 1 July 2013).83 Different sites have been identified as having potential for new hydroelectric plants. In two of these sites (the Bekhma and Badoush dams on the Tigris River), the construction of hydropower stations began during the 1980s, but was abandoned in the wake of the sanctions imposed in the 1990s.

Thedecliningprecipitation rateprojected for the future years and the related reduction inwater availability isexpectedtoaffecthydroelectricproductioninthefuture,addingtoenvironmentalissuesinthecountry.Inordertomeetthedemandforelectricityfromcompaniesandhouseholdshighersharesofelectricityproductionwillbederivedfromoilandgassourcestoreplacethecapacity lostbythehydropowerplants.Therefore, inadroughtscenarioanincreaseinCO2emissionsisexpected.

6.1%

4.4% 2.9% 2.7%

11.6% 10.8%

4.3% 2.8% 2.3% 1.9% 1.9% 1.5%

1.5%

19.7% 18.0%

17.3%

9.5%

7.1%

9.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

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1986

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1992

1993

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1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

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2002

2003

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2006

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2008

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2010

Trend in electricity production from hydroelectric sources (% of total production)

SOURCE:WORLDBANKINDICATORS,2013

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2012/iraqenergyoutlook/Fullreport.pdf


FIgURE 4.39: ShARE OF ElECtRICIty PRODUCtION FROM hyDROElECtRIC SOURCES vERSUS OIl AND gAS SOURCES (% OF tOtAl PRODUCtION)

4.7.1. MAIN HyDROpOWER pLANTS IN IRAQThestudyathandfocusedonsixmainhydropowerstationsinIraqbasedontheirgenerationcapacityandthedataavailabilityintermsofproductionandtheirdistributionacrossthecountry.

Themostimportanthydropowerstation,Mosul,islocatedinthegovernorateofNinewaandisthefourthlargesthydropowerstationintheMiddleEast.TheotherstationsarelocatedinthegovernoratesofAnbar(Hadithadam),Salahal-Din(Samarradam),andDiyala(Hamrindam).TwoimportantoperatinghydroelectricplantsarelocatedinKurdistanRegion:DoukhanandDarbandikhandams.85Thetotalgross installedcapacityoftheseplants isnearly2.5gigawatts(GW),buttheoperatingcapacityisestimatedtobearound1.3GWduetoacombinationofvariousoperationalproblems,lowwaterlevelsinreservoirsupstream,andtheconstraintsimposedbythecompetitionofdifferentsectorsonwateruse(mainlyforagriculturaluse).

84 World Bank Indicators, available online at http://www.worldbank.org85 Other hydropower stations are currently operating in Iraq, but due to their minimal generation capacity and the unavailability of data, they were not included in this study.86 For Haditha dam, the available capacity in MW is assumed to be equivalent to the designed generation capacity in the absence of the effective number.

tAblE 7: MAIN hyDROPOwER PlANtS IN IRAq


0

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Share of electricity production from hydroelectric sources, oil and gas sources (% of total production)

Electricity production from hydroelectric sources

Electricity production from oil and gas sources

name of the dam River/Lake Governorate GenerationCapacity(MW)

AvailableCapacity(MW)

Mosul tigris ninewa 1050 470Haditha Euphrates Anbar 660 66086

Hamrin Diyala Diyala 50 50Samarra tigris Salah al-din 84 84doukhan doukhan Lake Sulaymaniyah 400 75

darbandikhan Diyala Sulaymaniyah 249 70total 2493 1349

http://www.worldbank.org


MAp 22: MAIN HyDROpOWER STATIONS IN IRAQ

Mosul

Hamrin

Doukhan

SamarraHaditha

Derbandakhan

84 50

249

400

660

1050

Anbar

Najaf

Ninewa

Muthanna

Erbil

Diyala

Wassit

Basrah

Missan

Salah al-Din

Thi-Qar

KirkukSulaymaniyah

Dahuk

Babil

Qadissiya

Kerbala

Baghdad

Legend

Hydropower stations


Main Hydropower stations in Iraq

Note Generation Capacity Station in MW


Hydropowerproduction ismostlydependentuponthetotalprecipitationandthetemperature (thataffects theevaporationrates) inthearea.Generally, thetotalelectricityproducedfollowsthetrend inprecipitation,and itis stronglyaffectedbytheoccurrenceofadrought.Figure4.40showsthesimilar trendofannualhydroelectricproductionandannualprecipitationfortheyears1997to2011inKurdistanRegion.87

87 The chart shows the total production of electricity in Doukhan and Darbandikhan dams and the total precipitation in Kurdistan Region for the period 1997-2011. The values are standardized to allow the comparison.


FIGURE 4.40: TRENDS IN pREcIpITATION AND HyDROELEcTIc pRODUcTION IN KURDISTAN REGION

SOURCE:KRGMINISTRyOFELECTRICITy

SOURCE:KRGMINISTRyOFELECTRICITy

FIGURE 4.41: ANNUAL HyDROpOWER pRODUcTION IN KURDISTAN REGION MWH 1997-2012

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Rainfall KR HPS Production KR

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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Dokan HPS Production Derbandakhan HPS Production

Linear (Dokan HPS Production) Linear (Derbandakhan HPS Production)


Figure4.41showstheextremereductioninthetotalannualproductioninMWhforboththestationsinKurdistanRegionduringtheperiodfrom1997-2012.Afirstdeclinestartedin1999andlasteduntil2001.In2001,theannualproduction decreased by 60% in comparison to the average production levels in the period from 1997-2012.This reduction is clearly alignedwith the fall inprecipitationobserved in Sulaymaniyahgovernorateduring thesameyear (alsotestifiedbyanSPIof -1.15that identifiedthe1999asamoderatedryyear).Afterarise intheproductionin2003,adecreasestartedagainfrom2006(anextremelydryyearaccordingtotheSPIcalculatedforthegovernorate)untilreachingtheminimumlevelsin2009(duringwhichtheproductionwasrespectively68%and64%lowerthantheaverageproductionfortheperiod1997-2012inDoukhanandDarbandikhan).ThisconfirmsthatproductioninKurdistanRegiondependsstronglyonthepatternofprecipitationandtherelativeavailabilityofwaterintheDukanLakeandDiyalaRiver.Althoughthelineartrendshowsacleardecreaseintheproduction,thefutureforecastindicatesanincreaseinprecipitationinSulaymaniyahandKurdistanRegion.Togetherwiththeinstallationofadditionalsmall-scalehydropowerstationsintheregion,thiscouldleadtoareversetrendinfutureyears.

tAblE 8: hyDROPOwER PRODUCtION AND SPI IN IRAq

ForthestationslocatedintherestofIraq,atrendasclearastheoneidentifiedforthestationsinKRcannotbeobservedduetothelimitedavailabilityofdata88.Notwithstanding,fromTable8itispossibletoseethat2008wastheyearwiththelowesttotalproductioninMosulandSamarra,whichexperienced,respectively,an“extreme”and“severe”hydrologicaldroughtinthesameyear(asresultingfromtheSPIsof-2.27and-1.73).Ontheotherhand,2009wastheworstyearintermsofhydropowergenerationforHemrinandHadithaprobablyasconsequenceofthe“severe”and“moderate”droughtsthataffectedDiyalaandSalahal-Dinin2008and2009.

year of lowest production SpI 12 2008 SPI 12 2009

Mosul 2008 ExtremelyDry SeverelyDry

Samarra 2008 SeverelyDry ModeratelyDry

Haditha 2009 SeverelyDry ModeratelyDry

Hemrin 2009 SeverelyDry ModeratelyDry

88 For Mosul, Haditha, Hemrin, and Samarra, the total production in MWh is available only from 2008. This lack of information makes difficult to assess a reduction in the total production related to the drought that affected the country starting from 2007.


FIGURE 4.42: ANNUAL HyDROpOWER pRODUcTION FOR SAMARRA AND

HAMREEN DAMS(Mwh, 2008-2012)

FIGURE 4.43: ANNUAL HyDROpOWER pRODUcTION FOR HADITHA AND

MOSUL DAMS(Mwh, 2008-2012)

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Haditha Mosul

0

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400000

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Samarra Hamreen

SOURCE:MINISTRyOFELECTRICITy SOURCE:MINISTRyOFELECTRICITy


4.8. DROUght EFFECtS ON AgRIbUSINESS AND thE INDUStRIAl SECtOR4.8.1. DROUght EFFECtS ON AgRIbUSINESS

TheagriculturesectorisavitalcomponentoftheIraqieconomy.Itisthemainsourceof livelihood for poor and food insecurepeople as well as the largest source ofrural employment. After an increase inagriculture’scontributiontotheGDPfrom4%in2008to8.1%in2010(mainlyduetothe PrimeMinister’s Agriculture Initiativeto boost the sector), its contributiondeclinedto7.6%in2011. one reason for the decline of agriculture production relatesto climate changeand theenvironmentalchallengesfacedbythecountry.Prevalentproblems include dry climate, waterscarcity, declining soil fertility, high soilsalinity,erosion,andtheextensionofsanddunes. Moreover, inappropriate farmingpractices and mismanagement of water

FIgURE 4.44: CONtRIbUtION OF AgRICUltURE tO gDP (%)

resourceshascontributedtoincreasingratesofdesertification.Aspresentedinthemeteorologicalanalysissection,temperatureinIraqhasrisensignificantly,andsimilartrendsareobservedintherecordedprecipitation.AccordingtoFAO,anincreaseof1%inmeantemperatureresultsina10%lossinagriculturalproductivity.89 According to the GovernmentofIraq,anaverageof100,000donumarelosteachyearduetosoilsalinityandsoildegradation90,and92%ofthetotalareaofIraqisatriskfordesertification.91ItisthereforehardlysurprisingthattheproductivityofcultivatedlandinIraqhasdeclineduntildomesticallyproducedfoodmeetsonly30%ofthepopulation’sneeds92. AddedtothatthattheIraqiagriculturalandfoodproductsarenotcompetitive,andthesectorishighlyreliesonsubsidiesandhighlyrestrictivemarketregulations,includingimportcontrols.Consequently,thereisapressingneedtofactorintheimpactofdroughtonIraqiagricultureandotherclimatesensitiveactivitiesinthecountry.

In2011,agriculturallandrepresented19%(8.3millionha)ofthetotalareaofIraq(43.7millionha),lowerthanitslevelin1993whenitwas23%(10millionha).93Thecultivatedareachangesfromyeartoyearduetoclimaticandoreconomicreasons.Desertification,soilsalinityandsoilerosionhavereducedarablelands,significantlyimpactingcrop and livestockproduction. The recurrentdroughtsduring the last decade severely affected the agriculturalsectorwithrelevantdamagetotheproductionofnon-irrigatedcrops,whichrelyonlyonprecipitation.

89 Janabi, H. (2013). Climate Change Impact on Iraqi Water and Agriculture Sectors. MEES, vol. 56, No. 10. Available online at: http://iraqieconomists.net/en/2013/04/05/climate-change-impact-on-iraqi-water-and-agriculture-sectors (accessed 1 July 2013).90 Inter-agency Information and Analysis Unit (IAU). (2012). Climate Change in Iraq, June 2012. Amman: IAU. Available online at: http://www.japuiraq.org/documents/1736/Climate%20change%20In%20Iraq%20Fact%20sheet%20-%20English.pdf (accessed 1 January 2013).91 Iraq, Central Statistical Organization (CSO). (2009). Ecological Statistical Report of Iraq. Baghdad: CSO.92 Janabi, H. (2013).93 Agricultural land is the share of land area that is arable, under permanent crops, and under permanent pastures. It includes land defined by the FAO as land under temporary crops (double-cropped areas are counted once), temporary meadows for mowing or for pasture, land under market or kitchen gardens, and land temporarily fallow. Land abandoned as a result of shifting cultivation is excluded.

9

4 3.6

8.1 7.6

2002 2008 2009 2010 2011

Contribution of Agricuture to GDP (%)

SOURCE:FAO,NATIONALDEVELOPMENTPLAN(NDP2013-2017)

http://iraqieconomists.net/

http://www.japuiraq.org/


Giventheprecipitationvariationacrossthecountry,rainfedcropproductionalsovariesfromyeartoyear.AccordingtotheIraqiCentralStatisticalOrganisation(CSO),inthenorth,around50%oftheproductioniswheatandabout30%isbarley.IncontrasttothelargehydraulicsystemsoftheMesopotamianplains,innorthernIraqtheirrigatedlandsarescatteredoversmallfarmsinthemountainareasor intermediatevalleysandusewaterdivertedfromstreamsor springs.About 91,000hectares are cultivatedwith irrigated summer crops. The traditional irrigatedcropssuchasrice,sunflower,andtobaccohavegivenwaytoeasilymarketablesummervegetablesandfruitssuchastomatoes,onions,melon,andothers.Another15,000hectaresareunderpermanentcultivationofgrapesandfruittreesinsmallpartlyirrigatedorchards.

Cerealsrepresentthemajorcropinthenorthofthecountryandtheircultivationmainlyreliesonprecipitation.Only50%ofarablelandinrainfedareasiscultivatedwhiletherestisleftfallow.IncentralandsouthernIraq,agriculturedependsmainlyonirrigationfromtheTigrisandEuphratesriversandtheirtributaries.

Theconsequencesofdroughtonrainfedcropsoccurimmediately.Sincetheyielddependsmainlyonprecipitationlevels,anyshortageinprecipitationtranslatesdirectlyintoproductionlosses.Ontheotherhand,irrigatedcropssufferfromthereductioninwaterlevelsofriversandlakesfromwheretheydrawresources.

AsshowninTable9,theareascultivatedwithbarleygenerallydependonprecipitation.Thisdependencymakethecrophighlyvulnerabletoareductioninprecipitationlevels.Theproductioncomingfromarainfedareadecreasedby43%(from422,900tonsin2006to238,500tonnes)in2007forbarleyandfrom486,400to396,800tons(23%)forwheat.94 95Thereductionoccurredeveniftheextensionofthecultivatedareadependingonprecipitationincreasedinthesametimeframe.96Thiscanbeanindicatorofthedroughtstartingintheregioninthatseason.

tAblE 9: bARlEy AND whEAt CUltIvAtION IN IRAq

Regarding the irrigatedareas, the totalproduction forbarleydecreasedby21%between2007and2008,whilewheatproductiondecreasedby31%(reaching1,255,000tons,thelowestproductionsince2001).

94 Central Statistical Organization – data available online at http://cosit.gov.iq/english 95 Data on production for rainfed areas are not available for the year 2008.96 From 2,490,600 donum to 2,682,200 donum for barley; from 21,112 to 22,504 00 donum for wheat.97 Central Statistical Organization – data available online at http://cosit.gov.iq/english

SOURCE:CSOONLINE97

Barley Wheat

irrigated Rainfed irrigated Rainfed

2006 4964 4229 17999 4864

2007 5098 2385 18330 3698

2008 4040 - 12550 -

http://cosit.gov.iq/english

http://cosit.gov.iq/english


MAP 23: PERCENtAgE OF CROPlAND AFFECtED by thE CONSECUtIvE DROUghtS OF 2008 AND 2009

SOURCE:FAO,JOINTANALySISUNIT(JAU,IAU),JUNE2009

Thedroughtthataffectedthecountryinthetwoconsecutiveyears2008and2009damagedalmost40%ofthecroplandinthecountryespeciallyinthenortherngovernorates.

JO

RD

AN


I S L A M I CR E P U B L I CO F I R A N

S Y R I A NA R A B

R E P U B L I C

T U R K E Y

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Najaf

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Muthanna

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Salah al-Din

Thi-Qar

KirkukSulaymaniyah

Dahuk

Babil

Qadissiya

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Baghdad

Tigris RiverEuphrates River

Euphrates River

River

Lakes


46% - 56%

31% - 45%

26% - 30%

6% - 25%

4% - 5%

Percentage ofAffected CropLand / Total CropLand


FIGURE 4.45: cROp pRODUcTION cHANGES

FIgURE 4.46: CROP PRODUCtION tREND (1990-2011)

AsshowninFigure4.45,betweentheyears2005and2009,differentkindofculturessufferedasharpreductionintermsoftotalextensionofthecultivatedarea.

The cropproductiondecreasedby24%and33% forwheat andbarley respectively. The crop area for ricewasreducedby44% in2009compared to2005 levels; theproductionofwatermelondecreasedby47%,while theproductionofpotatoesdecreasedby72%.

This changes are showedalsoby theCropProduction Index99.During the last decade, the indexwasbelow itsaveragevalueintheyears2000,2004,2008,and2009.

98 World Bank Indicators (www.workdbank.it). The Crop production index shows agricultural production for each year relative to the base period 2004-2006. It includes all crops except fodder crops. Regional and income group aggregates for the FAO’s production indexes are calculated from the underlying values in international dollars, normalized to the base period 2004-2006. 99 World Bank Indicators Online - www.workdbank.it


SOURCE:FAO,AGRICULTURENOTE,2012

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Crop production trend 1990-2011

Crop Prod. Index Average Crop Prod. Index 1990-2011

http://www.workdbank.it

http://www.workdbank.it


Ifagricultureisthesectorthemostaffectedbydrought,itisatthesametimethebiggestconsumerofwater.Itisestimatedthatthesectoruses85%100ofthewaterresourcesinIraq.Ofthistotalamount,alargepartiswasteddailyduetoinadequateirrigationschemesandverypoorlymaintaineddistributionsystems.

4.8.2. THE INDUSTRIAL SEcTORInadditiontoagriculture,severalindustriesareaffectedbywaterscarcitythroughouttheproductionprocess,sales,andotheroperations,whichmayresultincapitallossesandlayoffs,thusincreasingunemployment.Fouroutof18chemical industriesreportedbeingnegatively impactedbydrought.SomeofthemsustainedadditionalcoststoimprovethedrawingwatersysteminresponsetolowerlevelsofwaterintheTigrisandShattal-Arabrivers.Othersindustriesreferredtoproductionproblemsrelatedtothehighsalinityofthewater.Inparticular,someindustrieswereforcedtoreplacemembranesandwaterdesalinationunitsandtoadoptadditionalmaintenanceprocedureson the water network.

TwooutofseventextileindustriesinterviewedreporteddamagesandadditionalcostsforindustrialwashingplantsduetotheshortageofwatercomingfromtheTigris.Inparticular,wellwaterwasusedasasubstituteforwatercomingfromtheriver,andimprovementsonthewithdrawalssystemwerenecessary.

SomeengineeringcompanieslocatedinIskandariya(governorateofBabil) thatrelyontheEuphratesRiverastheironlysourceofwaterreportedadecreaseinproductionduetothelowwaterleveloftheriver.

Twooutofsixcompanies in the food industryreportednegative impactsonproduction.These impacts includelowerproductivityduetolowwaterlevelsintheriversfromwherethecompanieswithdrawwaterandadditionalcostsrelatedtoextraordinarymaintenanceoperationsnecessarytorepairdamagestomachineryresultingfromthelackofavailablewater.

100 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) & World Bank – Iraq. (2012). Iraq: Agriculture Sector Note. Rome: FAO. Available online at:http://www.fao.org/docrep/017/i2877e/i2877e.pdf (accessed 1 April 2013).

http://www.fao.org/docrep/017/i2877e/i2877e.pdf


tAblE 10: StAtE OwNED COMPANIES AFFECtED by wAtER SCARCIty IN THE INDUSTRIAL SEcTOR

SOURCE:MINISTRyOFINDUSTRyANDMINERALS–INDUSTRIALDEVELOPMENT&REGULATORyDIRECTORATE

Company name Notes

GeneralCompanyforSulfur Mishraq

Thecompanywasaffectedbylowerwaterlevels,whichforcedthecompanytomakeimprovementstothewaterwithdrawalsystem.

GeneralCompanyforFertilizerManufacturing

ThelowerwaterlevelintheShattal-ArabRiversnegativelyaffectedtheproductionprocessthroughthehighersalinityofthewater.Thisforcedthecompanytotakealternativemeasuresforthepurposeofgettingridofthisproblembyreplacingthemembranesandwaterdesalinationunitinadditiontomaintenanceproceduresonthewaternetwork.

GeneralCompanyforMiningindustries ProductionhasbeenaffectedbylowerwaterlevelsinthegovernorateofMuthanna.

GeneralCompanyforMechanical industries

TheproductionofthecompanyandtheplumbingfactoryhasbeenaffectedbylowerwaterlevelsintheIskandariyaRiver,whichistheonlysourceofwaterforthecompany.

GeneralCompanyfortheSugarIndustry

DroughtintheTigrisRiveraffectedthesugarcaneplantationinMaysan,forcingthecompanytoconductmaintenanceoperations.


5. INSTITUTIONAL RESpONSE5.1. INSTITUTIONAL SETUp AS IT RELATES TO DROUGHT MANAGEMENT5.1.1. ACtIvItIES RElAtED tO AwARENESS5.1.2. cOORDINATION MEcHANISMS FOLLOWED IN DROUGHT MANAGEMENT5.1.3. ExIStENCE OF EARly wARNINg SyStEMS5.2. PREvIOUS AND ONgOINg DROUght RElAtED PROJECtS AND DONOR/lENDER ACtIvItIES


5. INSTITUTIONAL RESpONSEIraq’swateradministrationishighlycentralized,whichisreflectedinthelawscurrentlygoverningwater.Severalministriesandgovernmentalagenciesaredirectlyorindirectlyinvolvedindrought,droughtriskmanagement,andmitigation.Theseincludeagroupofgovernmentalstakeholdersthatareinvolvedindroughtmanagementfromamonitoringandforecastingcontext.Theseincludeentitiesthatcollect,monitor,andanalyseweatherandclimaterelateddatainanefforttoforecast,withanacceptablelevelofaccuracy,thepossibilityandtheextentofadroughtinafutureseason.Anothergroupofgovernmentalstakeholdersarethoseresponsibleforannouncingadroughteventandareprimarilyconcernedwithwaterasaresourceandneedtointer-coordinateanddevelopactionplansonhowtomanagetheresourcesinadroughtevent.Thethirdcategoryarethosestakeholdersthataresecondarilyaffectedbydrought;yet,theyalsoneedtohaveactionplansonhowtodealwiththeimpactsduringadroughtseason.Itshouldbementionedthattheimpactsthatsuchagenciesaddressareusuallysocioeconomicandincludeissuessuchasunemploymentandmigration.Furthermore,thevariousstakeholderscanbedividedintoagenciesthatoperateatthenationallevelandagenciesthatareprimarilyconcernedwiththeKurdishRegionalGovernment.Those stakeholders and governmental agencies are summarized as follows,while a detailed description of thevariousministerialdepartmentsrelatedtodroughtmonitoringandmitigationarepresentedinTable11.

5.1. INSTITUTIONAL SETUp AS IT RELATES TO DROUGHT MANAGEMENTAlthoughnoneofthegovernmentministrieshaveunitsthatspecificallyaddressdroughtriskmanagement,afewministrieshavespecificunitsorresponsibilitiesrelatedtodrought.Examplesincludethefollowing:

• • Ministry of Water Resources (State Bureau for Groundwater) – through its responsibilitiesforhydrologicanalysisand relatedmodelling,aswellas in its centralandfieldofficeswhere itimplementswaysandmeanstocontrolwater,useitefficiently,andprotectitsquantityandquality

• • MinistryofAgriculture–throughitseffortstocombatdesertification,conductresearch,andprovideextensionservicesrelatedtothewateruseandefficiency

• • MinistryofScienceandTechnology– through its researchondealingwithwatershortagesandstudiesrelatedtobetteruseofwaterandprotectionofquality

• • MinistryofTransport-DirectoratesofMeteorology–throughitspredictionmodellingactivitiesinprecipitation,temperature,moisture,wind,andrelatedmeteorologicaldata

• • MinistryofEnvironment–throughanumberofprogrammesfocusedondesertificationandclimatechange,aswellasinvolvementinprotectionandmonitoringofwaterquality

• • Ministry of Planning – through the Central Statistical Organization and the senatorial offices,whichissueperiodicallyreportsandstatisticalindicativedatarelatedtodroughtandagriculturalproduction

Someofthekeyministrieshaveresponsibilitiesand/orunitswithinthatareinvolvedwithdroughtanditsmanagementinonewayoranother.Aspects related todata collectionandanalysis,databankmaintenance,developmentofdroughtmitigationandactionplans,andplansrelatedtocombatingdesertificationareallactivitiesthatsuchaunitwould undertake.

TheMinistryofMunicipalitiesdoesnothaveaunitaddressingdroughtanditsmanagement.Giventheministry’svitalrelianceonwaterasaresource,itisrecommendedthatsuchresponsibilitiestoaddressdroughtmanagementandmitigationbe incorporated intooneof theministryunits. Thekeyunitwithin the current structureof thisorganizationwouldbePlanningandFollowUpwithintheMinistryofMunicipalities.


Allgovernorateleveldirectoratesemphasizedtheneedtocreatesuchunitsintheirstructurestoprovidethemwiththeneededtrainingandcapacitybuildingtoenablethemtocopewithdrought.

5.1.1. ACtIvItIES RElAtED tO AwARENESSSeveralstakeholdershave implementedorare intheprocessof implementingawarenesscampaignsthatrelatetodroughtinonewayoranother,althoughnonehavebeentargetedtoaddressdroughtspecifically.Campaignsrelatedtoawarenessofwaterefficiency,electricityefficiency,environmentalconservation,anddesertificationhavebeenimplementedbyvariousagencies.Anextstepwouldbetoevaluatetheimpactsofsuchcampaignsandtoundertakeanationalconcentratedeffortthatunitesallministries.

WhilesomeoftheawarenesscampaignsundertakenbytheMinistryofMunicipalitiesandtheMinistryofAgriculturethatpromoteefficiencyarequiterelevant,theycouldbemademoreeffectiveifaccompaniedbydeterrentinitiatives.Forexample,waterawarenesscampaignswouldbemoreeffectiveifIraqiwaterusewasmeteredandifthewatertariffwasincreasedtopromoteconservation.

Although awareness campaignswere implemented at the central level, a further stepwould be to implementawarenessactivitiesatthegovernoratelevel.Itwouldbeidealtodesigntailoredawarenessprogrammesthatfitdroughtconditionsatthegovernoratelevelspecifically.

5.1.2. cOORDINATION MEcHANISMS FOLLOWED IN DROUGHT MANAGEMENTIngeneral,thereiscoordinationbetweentherelevantstakeholders.Therearehighercommitteesfordroughtsthatareformedfromrepresentativesofvariousgovernmentalagenciesaswellasbilateralcommittees,forexample,betweenthemostrelevantstakeholderssuchastheMinistryofWaterResourcesandtheMinistryofAgriculture.Otherministriesareusuallybroughtinonan“asneeded”basistohelpfacilitatetheimplementationofthedecidedcourseofaction.Examplesofsuchcoordinativeeffortsincludethefollowing:

• Inadroughtseason,theMinistryofWaterResourcesandtheMinistryofAgricultureimmediatelyformabilateralcommitteetodecideuponthewatersharesallocatedtotheagriculturalsector,theareastobeirrigated,thetypesofcropstobeallowed(bothwinterandsummercrops),aswellasthecompensationamountallocatedforfarmersinresponsetocroploss.

• CommitteesarealsoformedbetweentheMinistryofWaterResourcesandtheMinistryofMunicipalitiesandPublicWorks(andtheMayoraltyofBaghdad)toallocatethevariousmunicipalwaterquantitiesforresidential and industrial uses. This includes the quantities to be allocated and the specific riverwaterelevationsatparticularwaterintakes.

• CommitteesareformedbetweentheMinistryofWaterResourcesandtheMinistryofElectricitytoalsodeterminetheminimumriverwaterelevationneededtoguaranteecertaingenerationcapacitiesatpowergenerationplants.

• Other types of larger committees and sub-committees are formed to implement a particular courseof action. For example, the Ministry of Interior is included in such committees when the Ministry ofMunicipalities decides to deliverwater tankers to certain communities in order to coordinatewith thevariousmunicipalitiesand localgovernments.Othercommitteesareestablishedwhenawatershortagediseaseorepidemicoccurs;thesecommitteesincludetheMinistryofHealthandtheMinistryofMigration.


101 UNESCO is willing to assist this entity through training, capacity building and providing technical expertise and it is awaiting response from the Metrology department in KRG on this regard.

That being the case, it can be argued that the main mechanism of cooperation is undertaken through theestablishmentof committees todecideupon and to implement a certain courseof action.With the exceptionoftheHigherCommitteesforDrought,thereareverylimitedmechanismsforstandardizedandinstitutionalizedcoordinationtoaccountforthevariouscoursesofactionsdevelopedoverthepastyearsofdroughtincidences.

The formation of theHigher Committees for Drought is a promising first step towards improved coordination.Increasedactivityamongmembersofthecommitteewouldincreasetheeffectivenessofsuchcoordination.Anidealsituationwould involvetheestablishmentand implementationofaclearcoordinationmechanismthat involveseachstakeholderwithinthescaleofthedroughtseasonandidentifiestheresultingimpacts,thepropercourseofaction,andrelevantstakeholderdutiesandresponsibilities.

Therewereextensivediscussionson this topicduringaworkshopon coordinationmechanisms indrought riskmanagementheldinAmmanfrom2to5March2014.Workshopparticipantsproposedtodevelopaninstitutionalframeworkfortheimplementationoftasksthatinvolveallthoseconcerned,ratherthantheformationofcommittees.

Ontheotherhand,thedirectoratesatthegovernoratelevelreportedaweaknessinthecoordinationmechanisms.Examplesincludethefollowing:

• Coordinationbetweenthewaterdirectorateandtheagriculturedirectoraterelatedtodesertificationbutnotdroughtmanagement;

• Coordination between the environment directorate and the governorate related to green belts andbeautificationwithinvolvementfromotherdirectorates.

5.1.3. ExIStENCE OF EARly wARNINg SyStEMSPriortheconductofthisstudy,nodroughtindicatorsorearlywarningsofdroughtoccurrencewereavailable.Dataonprecipitationandclimatewereweak,andtheprimaryapproachtodroughtwasoneofresponseratherthanriskmanagement.BoththeMinistryofWaterResourcesandtheMinistryofAgriculturehaveweatherstations;however,neitherentityusescollecteddatatoforecastfutureoccurrencesand/orprobabilities.

Inpreviousyears,theBaghdadDirectorateofMeteorologyappliedamethodologydevelopedinthe1970s,whichcouldprovideprobabilitiesforoneyearinthefuture.Recentlythedirectoratehasbeguneightpilotstousetimeseriesanalysistobetterprojectfutureprobabilitiestosupportawarningsystem.Theresultsofthiseffortneedtobefurtherdevelopedandvalidated.TheErbilDirectorateofMeteorology,ontheotherhand,doesnotyethavethecapacitytoconductsuchanalysis.Thisisanotherareawhereinterventionandsupportareneeded101.

5.2. PREvIOUS AND ONgOINg DROUght RElAtED PROJECtS AND DONOR/lENDER ACtIvItIESTobetterunderstandpastandongoingactivitiesrelatedtodroughtmanagement,Table12presentssummariesofkeyandselectprojectsthatarerelatedtoclimatechange,thewatersector,anddroughtmanagementforthewaterandagriculturalsectorsinIraq.Theprojectsarepresentedforvariousdonors.


tAblE 11: DEtAIlED DESCRIPtION OF thE vARIOUS MINIStERIAl DEPARtMENtS RELATED TO DROUGHT MONITORING AND MITIGATION

MINISTRy OF WATER RESOURcES

groundwater administration: Part of the commission for integrated Water Resources Management,the National Groundwater Centreis responsible for quantitative andqualitative groundwater resourcesassessment and for developing thehydrogeologicaldatabase.

the National Centre for water Resources Management: the MoWR manages water planning,coordination, and allocation. Thecentre brings together expertisefromthedepartmentsofhydrology,hydrogeology, and environment.Within the commission, the WaterControl Operations Centre isresponsibleformonitoringthedailydischargevolumesintheriversystemandforprogrammingtheoperationof dams, reservoirs, barrages,and regulators. Programming is coordinated with the electric Power Administration responsible forhydropower generation and withtheDamsandReservoirsOperationsCommission under the MoWR,responsible for the operation andmaintenanceofbulkwaterdeliveryfacilities.

water Control Centre and hydrological Analysis: this department is responsible for thedailymonitoringofwaterresourcesin the Tigris River, its tributaries,and the River Euphrates. It is alsoresponsible for monitoring ofstandards along the axis of the Mesopotamia and ensuring thedocumentationofsuchinformation.Responsibilities also include thedevelopment of operational plansfor the systemsof dams, reservoirsandfacilities,andcontrol structures to ensure meeting the waterdemandsforagricultural,biological,environmental, and industrialsectors.Itsdutiesalsoaretoensurewater sharing during seasons of flood andcoordinationwithrelevantdepartments and governmentalagencies on this matter throughthedailyoperationof the irrigationsystem in coordination Commissionfor Dams and Reservoirs and theCommission for Irrigation anddrainage Projects.

hydrological Studies: this department conducts studies andsurveys of the overall hydrologicalstations network for currentand future estimates of surfacewater resources in Iraq. It is alsoresponsibleforkeepingsuchstudiesand data in formats that can be easilyaccessedandanalysedbythevariouscomponentsofthehydraulicsystems such as dams and flowregulatingstructures.

Environmental Studies: this department is responsible forconducting comprehensive soilsurveys and land classifications, inadditiontospecializedstudiesrelatedto water allocations and rationing,spate irrigation, mechanizingirrigation,andwastewaterreuseforirrigation. Its responsibilities alsoinclude the conduct of laboratoryanalysis includingchemical analysis,physicalpropertiesof soils,analysisof fertilizers, plant, and analyses ofwater and tests on soil mechanics.


MINISTRy OF TRANSpORT

Department of Meteorology: This department is themain source for creating the basic information of theclimaticelementsneededbyalltechnical divisionsinitsbodyandrelatedentities.Itoperates51meteorologicalstations distributed throughout the variousgovernoratesofIraq.Eachstationmonitorsacompleteset of climate and meteorological variables includingtemperature,pressure,relativehumidity,surfacewinds,solar radiation, precipitation and evaporation, thedegree of dew, cloud movement, vision, dust storms,and thunderstorms around the clock. Such data and information is transmitted to the forecasting centre inBaghdadonceeverythreehours(i.e.,anaverageof eight timesperday).Thetransmissionisdonebytelephone,andallstationsoperateona24-hourbasis.

Department of Climate: The department isresponsible for collecting the informationfrom meteorological stations and auditingand analysis of such data. The departmentis also in charge of using such data to issue monthly and annual bulletins that includeselements of climate and the climate atlas of Iraq. It is also responsible for disseminatingsuchinformationtokeystakeholderssuchasthe Ministries of Agriculture and Irrigation,industrialentities,universities,amongothers.

Department of water and Agriculture: this departmentisresponsibleforsettingupandmonitoring precipitation gauging stationsthroughoutthecountry.Allcollecteddataarethen utilized for conducting analysis relatedto agriculture including, but not limited to,precipitationand evaporation,radiation,andtemperatures of the depths of the soil. Thedepartment is then responsible for issuingmonthlybulletinsandannualreportsthatareprovided to the key governmental and non-governmentalstakeholdersoftheagriculturalsector.

Department of ICt: This departmentis responsible for the preparation of programmes and systems for the variousdepartmentsof theauthority, especially theDepartment of Climate for the coordinationof work and the efficient extraction ofinformation accurately. It is also responsiblefor maintaining the communication and ITinfrastructure.

Department of Operations and Maintenance: This departmentis responsible for the operationsand maintenance (O&M) of all thestations throughout the countryincluding periodic and preventativemaintenance. It is also responsibleforall thecalibrationsandensuringthe accuracy of the equipmentusedby theauthorityat its variouslocations.

MINISTRy OF pLANNING

Related studies, surveys, and projects:ResearchersintheMinistryof Planning are implementingcomparativestudiesandanalysis todeterminethecausesofphenomenaand reduce and deal with negativephenomena. Through agriculturalcensus data collected in terms of seasons and diversity of crops atthe level of counties and districts,researchers can monitor indicators of desertification and their impacton theproductionoffield crops, inaddition toother studies related totheproductionof sustainablecropsandlivestock.

The Agricultural Statistics TechnicalDepartmentinCSO,incollaborationwith the Information TechnologyService Centre, is implementing aremote sensing project to monitorand classify plantings using GIS. Itaims to determine the approvedprocedures used to estimateacreage.ItwillbeimplementedoveratwoyearperiodfromMay2014toMay2016.

Sectorial Department: Responsibleforpreparingfive-yeardevelopmentstrategies and examining and passing projects submitted byvarious executive departments inaddition to following up on theirimplementation. The departmentcarries out agricultural planningstudies to assess the agricultural sector and propose policies for thedevelopmentofthissector.

gIS Center: The GIS system in CSOis concerned with Census mappingfor2009.Italsoprovidesadatabasefor listing and numbering that canbe filled with indicators dealingwith desertification monitoringand critical areas and productionof spatial analysis that could beuseful for decision-makers from the analysisofallavailabledatafromthedifferentministries,whowillinturnapprove the projects and plans toreducethisphenomenon


MINISTRy OF AGRIcULTURE

Directorates: those are the arms of theministryatthegovernoratelevel.Theoverallrolesandresponsibilitiesofthosedirectoratesaretopreparethe cropping plans for the summerand winter seasons and coordinate withthevariousentitiestoreceiveitsneedstoimplementthose.Theyarealso responsible for implementinginvestment projects and facilitatingfarm loans and financing throughthe government. Other dutiesinclude awareness and promotionof irrigation efficiency, and supplyof animal feed to cattle farmers, inaddition to pesticides and fertilizeratsubsidizedprices.

Councils: there are number of councils under the MoAg. Among the mostrelevantcouncilsistheCouncilforCombatingDesertification,whichistaskedwithimplementingprojectsto reduce desert encroachments. Activities include rehabilitationof oases, well drilling in droughtaffected areas, awareness, and soilstabilization programmes, just toname a few.

Companies: these are state owned enterprises that operateas companies for the purposeof improving the agriculturalsector in Iraq. Key companiesinclude Company for AgriculturalEquipment, Company for ModernIrrigation Technology, Company forIndustrialCrops,amongothers.

MINIStRy OF MUNICIPAlIty AND PUblIC wORkS

general water Directorate: Within its organizationalstructure, the MMPW includes the Water General andSewerage General Directorates. This entity is responsibleforhandlingwaterprojectsatthegovernoratelevel,excepttheboardofBaghdadMunicipality.Eachofthegovernorateshas such directorate with similar responsibilities at thegovernorate level, and they coordinatewith theMMPW’scentral Water General directorates.

TheGeneralDirectorateforWaterisresponsibleforprovidingpotablewaterforallpeoplethroughwatertreatmentplants,compactunitwaternetworks,planning,newwaterplants,new water networks, site surveying for project location,engineeringstudies,technicaldesignforwaterprojectsandnetworks, implementationofwaterprojects, rehabilitationofexistingwaterprojectsandpipereplacement,operationand maintenance of water projects, and laboratories fortestingwaterquality.

Mayoralty of baghdad: The Baghdad Governorateis comprised of six districts located outside BaghdadCityand itssuburbsboundaries. Intermsofwaterandsanitation,thosedistrictsfallundertheresponsibilityoftheMMPW.TheCityofBaghdadanditssuburbshaveanareaofapproximately950km2 that are administered byMOB.TheCityofBaghdaditself isdividedintoninemunicipalities. Each municipality is responsible forthe municipal services under its jurisdiction such aswater,sanitation,andsolidwastecollection.Thewaterand sanitation services are administered centrally byBaghdad Water Authority (BWA) and the BaghdadSewerage Authority (BSA), as appropriate. Eachmunicipalities’ role is limited to house connectionsconstructionandthepipelineswithdiameter less than250 mm. The planning and reconstruction of projectsrelated to each municipality is the responsibility ofthe MOB. This includes project planning, funding,agreements with donors, and design and execution.Funds from international donors are coordinated withthe Ministry of Planning. Water services in BaghdadMayoralty are the responsibility of (BWA), while thesewerage services are the responsibility of (BSA). TheBWAisresponsibleforthemainwaterintakes,treatmentplants,transmissionlines,storagereservoirs,andwaterdistribution networks. BSA is responsible for themainsewers,sewagetreatmentplants,andsewagedisposal.Both Authorities have departments for administration,finance,procurement,andoperationsandmaintenance.


Centre for Plant breeding and Improvement: This centre develops a variety of strategiccrops, especially drought and salt-resistantwheatthroughtheuseofgeneticnuclearandconventionalbreeding.

Centre for Soil and water Resources: This centre conducts pioneering appliedscientific research with the use of nuclearandconventionaltechnologyinthefollowingfields:•Increasingtheefficiencyandrationingof water consumption for agricultural cropsunder different irrigation systems and atdifferentenvironmentalconditions.

•Applyingsustainableagriculturaltechniquestousesalinegroundwaterinthereclamationofsaltysoilsandcombatingdesertification.

• Monitoring dust storms using radioactivenuclidetechnology.

MINISTRy OF ScIENcE AND TEcHNOLOGy

Water Research & Laboratories Centre: The centrecarriesoutresearch,andfieldapplicationsrelatedtonewtechnologies forwaterandwastewatertreatment,andforthetreatmentofsurfaceandgroundwateraffectedby industrial, petroleum, agriculture, and sanitationpollutants.Theactivitiesinvolve:

• Research and investigation into new treatmenttechnologies;

• Research using various techniques to reduce surfacewater contamination and wastewater treatment forfurtherwaterreuse;

• Contribution in issuing the legislations that concernwaterspecificationsandtreatment;

• Measuring environmental stable and radioactiveisotopestosupportthenationaleffortforwaterresourcesmanagement.

water treatment technology Centre: the centre is concerned with solving problemsrelated to water (municipal, industrial, andwastewater) treatment technologies and improvingtheperformancethrough:

• Following up technological developmentwithemphasisontechnologyexperienceandtransferformoderninternationaltechniques;

• issuing basic and detailed designs for directorate research and projects and forotherprojectsofrelevantspecialization;

• Conducting fieldwork, includingconstruction and conducting systemsinstallation,testing,andcommissioning;

• Providing engineering and technicalconsultations to the relevant stateorganizations.

Environment Research Centre: the centre conducts researchrelatedtotheeffectsofvariouscontaminantsand natural phenomena on the essential environmentelements (air, water, and soil). This is done throughdiagnosingandestimatingtheamountthatresultsfromeither industrialprocessesand/ornaturalphenomena,and conducting risk assessment resulting fromcontaminants in order to reduce their impact on theenvironment.Thesegoalsareachievedby:

• Usingenvironmentdatabasesystemsdealingwiththeimpact of contaminants on the main elements of theenvironment;

• Air quality assessment (atmospheric and in theworkenvironment)andminimizingtherisksonthepopulationandtheworkenvironment;

• Studyingthe impactsofmunicipalandmedicalwasteontheenvironment;

• Assessing the quality of chemically and biologicallycontaminatedsoilandestablishingadatabasesystem.

• Utilizing the experiences and providing scientificconsultationinthefieldofenvironmentalcontamination.


MINIStRy OF ENvIRONMENt

Climate Change Centre: The centre follows up on all issues and projects related to drought,desertification, and dust storms, in coordination with the Ministry of Agriculture, throughenvironmental and agricultural departments in the various governorates. As the concernedbodywithintheMoENVandthenational focalpoint forthese issues in Iraq, it followsupontheimplementation of Iraq’s obligations asmentioned in the United Nations Convention to CombatDesertification. These obligations include preparing the national report and aligning nationalstrategies,incoordinationwiththerelevantnationalparties.Italsofollowsuponthecompletionofthegreenbeltsanddunesmonitoringprojects,monitoringcasesofdeterioration,aswellasbilateralandregionalagreementswithregardtodroughtandduststorms.Thecentre’sdivisiononrelatedstudiesworksondesertificationinparticularandspecializes inthepreparationofclimatemodelsandfutureforecasts.Itprovidessituationalstudiesinadditiontothedevelopmentofstrategiesandplanstocombatdesertificationandduststorms.ItalsoworksonadaptingtotheeffectsofclimatechangeandpreparingoutreachprogramsincollaborationwiththeDepartmentofEnvironmentandMedia.TheMoENVisamemberofthesupremebodyforduststorms,andthecentreparticipatesintheactionsoftheexecutiveofficeofduststorms.

Council of Environmental Conservation and Development: partnership with the provincialcouncils in all of the governorates,thiscounciladdressesenvironmentalproblems and provides support tothe governorates in overcomingenvironmentalchallenges.

governorate-level Directorates: these directorates preparemonitoringandevaluationplansandfollowupontheimplementationofprojectsincollaborationwiththeMinistryofAgriculture.Theyalsoraiseawarenessonefficientlanduse.

Department of Soil Monitoring and Evaluation: This departmentmonitors soil salinization,waterlogging, use of fertilizer,cases of incorrect use of land and pesticides. It collaborates with theMinistry of Agriculture regardingagricultural land.

Air quality Control Department: This department monitorsand evaluates air quality viamonitoringstationsatthedifferentenvironmental departments ingovernorates. These stationsmonitor and measure the concentration of total suspendeddustinairandanalysethecontentofheavymetals.

Department of water Management: This department rationalizes waterconsumptionandquality.Itworkstoimprovewaterqualitybymonitoringwaterplantsandallwatersources.


tAblE 12: SElECtED DROUght RElAtED PROJECtS AND DONOR/lENDER ACtIvItIES

Agency Relevant Projects

UN Projects Desk Study on the Environment in Iraq – UNEP

PriortotheoutbreakoftheconflictofMarch/April2003,thegovernmentofSwitzerlandconveneda“HumanitarianMeeting Iraq” in Geneva to provide a platform for expert dialogue between relevant actors. The Swiss delegationproposedtheestablishmentofan‘environmentalassistancestand-bygroup’,andexplicitlyaskedUNEPtobepartofsuchagroup.Subsequenttothisrequest,UNEPinitiatedthisDeskStudytoassessenvironmentalvulnerabilitiesinIraq.

TheobjectivesoftheDeskStudyareto:

• ProvidearapidoverviewandpreliminaryassessmentoftheenvironmentinIraq;

• IdentifythemostsignificantenvironmentalchallengesconfrontingIraqasitentersanewchapterinitshistory;

• Identifypossibleresponsestothesechallenges,includinghumanitarianactionstoavoidorreduceimmediateriskstohumanhealth;and

• IndicatepotentialnextstepstowardenvironmentallysustainablereconstructioninIraq,includingmeasuresfor institutional strengthening, capacity building, and greatly enhanced participation in global and regionalenvironmentalprocesses.

Improvement of Drainage Conditions in Major Agricultural Areas – hilla hashimiya Drain

Theprojectaimstoenablesufficientwatertobedrainedawayfromtheprojectareatoreducethewatertabletoanacceptableleveltopermitresumptionofproductiveagriculture.Thetotalareatobereclaimedis62,000hectaresandmorethan50,000farmingfamilieswillbenefitfromthisproject.

The project’s development goal and immediate objective is to improve food security and rural livelihoods throughrestoration of essential irrigation/drainage infrastructure, thereby preventing water logging and salinization andassuringproperdrainageofpollutedwater.Italsobringspresentlyunproductivelandintocultivation,increasescropyields,andcreatesaninstitutionalenvironmentthatwillprovidethemeansforsustainableoperationandmaintenanceof created infrastructure.

water treatment Iraq – UNOPS

One of the largestwater treatment developments involvingUNOPS in Iraq is thewater treatment plant at Hai Al-Hussain,whichprovidesclean,drinkablewatertothecityofKerbala.ThecityisoneoftheholiestandmostimportantforShiaMuslimsandeveryyearduringtheAshurapilgrimagethecity’spopulationexpandsfrom400,000to1.5millionpeople.ThisputsconsiderablestressonawaternetworkthathasalreadysufferednearlythreedecadesofneglectandtherehabilitationoftheplantwasmadeahighpriorityprojectbytheIraqiMinistryofMunicipalitiesandPublicWorks.Thesuccessfulrehabilitationofthesystematthisplanthasguaranteedthesupplyofcleanwaterandreducedtheriskofcontagiousdiseaseforthepilgrimagecrowdsforthefirsttimein20years.

Drought Mapping Analysis – UNEP with JAU

IncollaborationwithFAO,JAU(previouslyIAU)haspreparedadroughtmappinganalysistochartthechangesindroughtconditionsinIraqoverthelasttwoyears.Theanalysisshowsthat39%ofallcroplandhassufferedfromdroughtinboth2008 and 2009.

Evaluation of Food and Crop Nutrition Situation in Iraq -FAO

The mission assessed the current food supply and nutrition situation, particularly in the context of the recentlyimplementedSecurityCouncilresolutionSCR986.AnumberofimportantfindingswereconcludedbythemissionsuchastheinadequacyoffoodsuppliesunderSCR986dealandcontinuedspreadofmalnutritionamongthepopulation.



UN Projects Agricultural baseline Data Collection- FAO

Anumberofagriculturalsurveyshavebeenconducted intheframeofthisproject.Theaimsoftheprojectwastoimprovethe levelof foodsecurity for thepopulationthroughtimelyavailabilityof reliabledataon theagriculturalsector,withparticularemphasisonstaplefoodcrops,andtoassistthegovernmentindatacollectiononstaplefoodcropproduction.

Rehabilitation of the Date Palm Sector in Iraq – UNIDO/FAO

TheprojectwasfundedbytheUNDGTrustFundforIraqforjointimplementationbyFAOandUNIDO,aspartoftheJointUN-IraqAssistanceStrategy2006-2007.Attheapprovalstage,theplannedbudgetwasreducedfrom11to8millionUSD,ofwhich3millionUSDwereattributedtoUNIDO.TheMinistryofAgriculture(MoA)wasthemaincounterpartofFAOandtheMinistryofTrade(MoT)andtheparastatalDateProcessingandMarketingCompany(IDPMC)werethemaincounterpartsofUNIDO.FAOactedastheLeadExecutingAgencyandUNIDOasCollaboratingAgency.

The development objective is to create productive employment and improve food security through increasedagricultural production and productivity by improving on farm and post-harvest practices and building capacity ofresearchanddevelopmentinstitutesandentrepreneurs.

Keyimmediateobjectivesare:

• Rehabilitationandmodernizationofthedateproductionsystem

• IntroducinganIntegratedPestManagement(IPM)aimingatcontrollingthemaindatepalmpestsanddiseasesonrespectoflocaleco-systems

• Improving thedate value chain fromharvest tomarket in order tomeet local demandand internationalrequirements,thusenhancingtheaccesstomarketsandresultinginhigherfarmincome

• Strengthening thecapacitiesandcapabilitiesof support institutions tobecomeadatepalm researchandtrainingcentre(DPRTC)focusingonpost-harvestactivities

Rehabilitating water networks in Iraq – UNOPS

Theleakageof60%ofthewatersupplycausedshortagesofpotablewater,whilecontaminationbysalinewaterandsewagediminishedwaterquality.Addressing thesechronic shortcomingswasakeyconcernof residents–both toensureadequate,potablewatersupplyandtoreducewater-bornediseases.

Toachievethosegoals,thethreegovernoratesprioritizedtheSixWaterNetworksprojectaimedatrepairing,replacing,andextendingthewaternetwork,installingadequatecontrolfacilitiesandnewpipes.TheyhiredUNOPStoimplementit,withresponsibilityfordesigningandmanagingthework.

Intotal,UNOPSmanagedtheconstructionof55kmofnewpipes,providedformaltrainingto22waterdirectorateengineersandcreatedmorethan2,600daysoflabourforlocalworkers.Mostimportantly,theprojectprovidedmorethan200,000localresidentswithaccesstocleandrinkingwater.IttherebymadeanimportantcontributiontoachievingUnitedNationsMillenniumDevelopmentGoals,notablyboostingsustainableaccesstosafedrinkingwaterandbasicsanitation,reducingchildmortality,andcombatingdisease.



USAID Projects Inma Agribusiness Programme, Iraq

Thiscomprehensiveprogrammewasestablishedtosupportthedevelopmentofagribusinessesandagriculturalmarketsin Iraq.Helping Iraqistransformlocaleconomies, Inmais improvingthe livelihoodoffarmerswhileenergizing Iraq’sagricultureindustryby:• Increasingcropdiversityandlivestockproductivity• Deliveringagriculturalinformationsystemstofarmersandfood-processors• Deliveringsustainabletechnicalprogrammesforsoilreclamationandwaterresourcemanagement• IncreasingthecompetitivenessofIraqiagribusinesses• IncreasingdomesticandforeignpartnershipsTheUSAIDInmaAgribusinessProgrammeisimplementedinpartnershipwiththeGovernmentofIraq,theProvincialReconstructionTeams,localgovernmentagenciesandtheIraqiprivatesector.Theprogrammesupportstwoprofitableagriculture value chains in Iraq: livestock-protein and horticulture. Through technical assistance with cross-cuttingbusinessdevelopment,theprogrammegoalistoincreaseproductivity,lowerproductionandmarketingcosts,increasetheprofitabilityofagriculturalenterprises,andgenerateruralemployment. Incollaborationwiththeprivatesector,Inmaiscreatingjobsandincreasinggrosssalesinagriculture.

UNEP-UNESCO Joint Project: “Natural and Cultural Management of the Iraqi Marshlands”

This joint project aims to establish and implement a longer-term sustainablemanagement framework in the IraqiMarshlands.Thisnew initiativeaddresses thepriorityneeds for themanagementplanof thearea that reflects theuniquehistorical,cultural,environmental,hydrological,andsocio-economiccharacteristicsofthearea,inparticularbyutilizingtheWorldHeritageinscriptionprocess.TheprojectseekstoprovideguidanceandsupporttotheIraqistakeholdersonhowtodevelopasustainablepreservationandmanagementplaninaccordancewithcriteriafortheinscriptionontheUNESCOWorldHeritageList,implementsomekeypracticesforresourceefficiencyandsustainableproduction/consumptionincludedinthemanagementplanonapilotbasis,aswelltobuildcapacityandraiseawarenessamongthelocalpopulationtoensuretheirparticipationforthesitepreservationandecosystemmanagement.

ACIAR/AusAID Iraq Project:

Reporting: better crop germplasm and management for improved production of wheat, barley and pulse, and forage legumes in Iraq (May 2005 - June 08)Planning: Development of conservation cropping systems in the drylands of northern Iraq (July 08 – June 11)TheprojectaimwastoimprovedrylandcroppinginnorthernIraqthroughthetesting,promotion,anddisseminationofimprovedcropcultivarsandcropmanagementpractices.Specifically,themainobjectivesoftheprojectwere:• Extension:demonstrationandpromotionof“bestbet”varietiesandcropmanagementtechnologies• Researchtestingofnewvarieties/linesforadaptation(wheat,barley,chickpea,lentil,fababean,forages)• Researchtestingofnewcropmanagementsystems;andTrainingofIraqiscientistsinresearchandextension• TrainingIraqiscientistsonresearchandextension.

Iraqi Marshlands project (2004-2009)

TheoveralldevelopmentgoalofthisprojectistoensuresustainabledevelopmentoftheIraqiMarshlands,reflectingtheuniquehistorical,cultural,environmental,hydrological,andsocio-economiccharacteristicsofthearea,inparticularutilizingtheWorldHeritageinscriptionprocessasatooltodevelopandimplementamanagementframework.Agriculture Reconstruction and Development Programme for Iraq (ARDI)Withfourcomponents—agriculturalproduction,agribusiness,ruralfinancialservices,andsoilandwaterresources—thisprogrammeassistedtheruralpopulationinsolvingthemostpressingproblemsfacingtheagriculturalsector.Theprogramme’sgoalwastorestoreandimproveconditionsforproductiveandprofitableagriculture.TheprojectbuiltonexistingphysicalinfrastructureandhumanandinstitutionalresourcestoaddresstheunderlyingcausesofweaknessinIraq’sagriculturalproduction.

Marshlands Restoration Project (IMRP)

Theprogramtrainedprovincialgovernmentemployeesanduniversitystaffskilledinandabletoapplythefundamentalsofmarshrestorationandwetlandsmanagement;identifiedcommittedprovincialgovernmentemployeeswhowouldcarryforwardagriculturalandlivestockefforts;andidentifiedacadreofveterinarygraduates,previouslyunemployed,whohadexperienceworkingwithlivestockdirectlyinmarshvillages;andcreatedownershipbytheMarshArabtribes,asevidencedbytheiradoptionofprogrammeinterventions,particularlyinagriculture,livestock,andpublichealth.



USAID Projects Audit Of USAID/Iraq’s Agriculture Reconstruction And Development Programme

TheobjectiveofthestrategyforwaterandlandresourcesactivitywastoworkwithdifferentIraqiministriestocreateacomprehensiveplantoguidewaterresourcesdevelopmentinIraqoverthenexttwodecades.TheactivitiesincludedprovidingtrainingtoofficialsattheMinistryofWaterResources.

ThedatepalmactivitysupportedtheIraqiMinistryofAgriculturenationalprogramaimingtopropagateandimprovethedatepalmsinIraq.Withtheprogram’ssupport,theMinistryofAgriculturepurchased170,000and40,000offshootsfordatepalmnurseriesandmotherorchards,respectively.

DatepalminfrastructuresupportactivitiesweredesignedtoincreasetheavailabilityofdatepalmoffshootstoIraqifarmers through the establishment of date palm mother orchards and new date palm nurseries. Working in 13governorates,theprojecttargetedandestablishedinfrastructurefor17motherorchardsand16nurseries.Infrastructuresupportsincludedconstructionofwaterreservoirbasins,pumphouses,andassociatedirrigationequipment.

DAIprocuredanddelivered4,000tonsofwheatseedstotheMinistryofAgricultureseedstoragefacilityinNinewa(Mosul),themostimportantwheatgrowinggovernorateinIraq.

water Systems Planning Model (wSPM) for the Strategy for water and land Resources in Iraq (SwlRI)

ScenariosfortherecoveryandfutureoftheMarshlandsinecologicalandhumantermshavebeendevelopedinthreemajorprojectsoverthepastfiveyears,oneofwhichistheSWLRIProject.TheprojectadopteddifferentmethodologiesforscenariodevelopmentandanalysisandcollectivelyconcludedthatacontinuationofthecurrenttrendsinwatermanagementanddevelopmentwillresultinthegradualdisappearanceoftheMarshlandsinallbutabrackishareasouthofBasrah.ThescenariosillustratedifferentpolicyanddevelopmentchoicesfacingtheGovernmentofIraqandhighlighttheimplicationsfortheMarshlands.TheapproachesandresultsfromSWLRIareasfollows:

ThefirstphaseoftheSWLRIprojectdevelopedabasinwidewaterquantityandqualityplanningmodelfortheTigris-Euphrates Basin. The model is composed of sub-models that address trans-boundary conditions, surface water,agriculture,municipal and industrial utilization, andmarsh restoration. It is a complexmodel,with over 680 userdefinedvariables includingprovisionofwater to theMarshlands ranging from0 to100%of theviableMarshlandsrestoration(estimatedbyCRIMandNewEdentobeapproximately75%oftheMarshlandsextentin1973).Themodelprojectswaterquantityandqualityconditionsintothefuturefor40years.Byadjustingvariablessuchasflow,salinity,damconstruction,transboundarywater,climatechange,pollution,agriculture,andmarshtargets,usersofthemodelcanexploretheimplicationsofalternativepolicyoptionsandattempttooptimizetheachievementofmultiplewatermanagementobjectivesincludingtherestorationoftheMarshlands.

Forexample,aMarshlandsconservationscenariobasedonfullupstreamdevelopmentofdamsandagriculturewith10%losstoclimatechangeachieves60-75%marshconservation,providedthat80%ofconveyancecanalsarelined(achieving90% loss reduction)andreservoirsareoperated tomeetMarshlandsdemandsonamonthlybasisaftermeetingmunicipal,industrial,andagriculturaldemands.

TheprojectalsoinvestigatedtheprojectedsalinityofwaterinboththeTigrisandtheEuphrateswheretheyenterIraqwith“nonewdevelopment”upstreamandwith“fulldevelopment”upstreamscenarios.UnderthefulldevelopmentscenariothesalinityofthewaterintheEuphratesexceedsdrinkingwaterstandardsby2015andreachesaconcentrationof1,800ppmby2040.



JICA Projects Irrigation Sector loan; Assist agriculture in Iraq by developing irrigation infrastructures

AgricultureisanimportantindustryinIraqtodiversifytheeconomyandcreatejobopportunities.Nonetheless,recentcrop production including barley, wheat, and rice has significantly decreased due to economic sanctions, militaryconflicts,andfrequentdroughts.AlthoughirrigatedagricultureisindispensableinmanyregionsofIraqsinceithaslowannualprecipitation,only60%ofthepossibleirrigablefarmlandhasbeenirrigated.JICAassistsagricultureinIraqinintroducingmaterialsandequipmenttomanageirrigationfacilitiestofurtherpromoteagricultureinthecountry.

basrah water Supply Improvement Project; Improve water supply to access safe water

WatersupplyconditionsinIraqhavesignificantlydeterioratedduetoeconomicsanctionsandmilitaryconflicts.InHarsa(asmalltowninBasrahgovernorate)andBasrah,thesecondlargestcityinIraq,thewatertreatmentcapacityislessthanhalfofthedemand,andthedailywatersupplyislimitedtolessthan12hoursinnearly70%ofallhouseholds.Inordertosupplysafewater,JICAassiststhecountryindevelopingwatertreatmentplants,transmissionlineanddistributionnetwork,andwatersupplyfacilitiesinHarsaandBasrahinsouthernIraq.

Action Plan on leakage Reduction for baghdad water Supply System

ThemainobjectivesoftheprojectaretoconductapilotleakagesurveyinBaghdadandtoorganizeappropriateNWR(non-revenuewater)units inBWA(BaghdadWaterAuthority).Details includePilotLeakageSurveyTraining,FlowofLeakageSurveyTraining,LecturesonNWRandLeakageReduction,NecessaryEquipmentforLeakageSurvey,SurveyinBaghdadandEstablishmentofNRWReductionUnitinBWA.

water Supply Operation and Maintenance; Provide training to help develop human resources in the water supply sector

ThefunctionaldeclinesinthewatersupplysectorinIraqhaveaffectedthehealthofchildren,andcausedanincreaseinthedeathratefromdiarrhoeaofchildrenagedfiveoryounger.Administrativeproblemsinthissectorincludealackofproperdevelopmentplanning,thedeteriorationofcapableadministrationandtechnicaldivisions,andashortageofhumanresources.Inparallelwithassistanceinthedevelopmentoffacilities,JICAalsoassiststhecountryinestablishingpropersystemsorplanningfunctions,improvingoperationalefficiency,developingoperationandmaintenancesystems,andsolveotheradministrativeproblems.



ICARDA Projects Rain water harvesting and Supplemental Irrigation at Northern Sinjar Mountain, Iraq

ThemainaimofthisresearchistocontributetosolvingtheproblemofwatershortageofIraqbyfindingeffectiveresultsintermsofsavingsignificantrunoffwaterforirrigationpurposes.MacroRainwaterHarvesting(RWH)wasapplied to thisarea in Iraq,whereMacro is indicator for largecatchmentarea.A linearprogramming techniquewasadoptedtooptimizetheirrigatedareaforthreescenariosofirrigation:1)supplementalirrigation(SI)100%,2)deficitirrigation(DI)50%,and3)deficitirrigation(DI)25%offullirrigationrequirements.Theresultsofcalculationofirrigatedarearangedbetween14.5-3,663.7forSI100%,33.0-39,827.1forDI50%,and20.1-7,314.0forDI25%hectares,respectively.TheseresultsreflectusefulvalueofRWHanditsinfluencetoincreasetheirrigatedareainthestudied region.

wheat Productivity Under Supplemental Irrigation in Northern Iraq

InviewofthelargeshortfallinwheatproductioninIraq,thelowproductivityofrainfedwheatandthepotentialforasubstantialimprovementinwheatproductivitythroughtheapplicationofsupplementalirrigation,researchwasinitiatedinordertoimprovetheproductivityofwheatinnorthernIraq.Thisgoalwastobeachievedbyoptimizingtheconjunctiveuseofprecipitationandthelimitedwaterresourcesavailable,alongwithotherproductioninputssuchasimprovedcultivars,fertilizersandothersoilandcropmanagementstrategies.Specificobjectivesincluded:

• Defining thetiming and amountof supplemental irrigation appropriate, in order to improve yield andwateruseefficiency

• Determiningwaterapplicationratesandnitrogenlevelssuitablefortheconditionsofthearea• Identifyingwheatcultivars’responsetosupplementalirrigationpractices• Determiningtherelationshipsbetweensowingdateandproductivityundersupplementalirrigation

Salinity Management in Iraq

Theprojectaimstocatalyselarge-scaleeffortstocombatsoilsalinity.ItwilltargettheNassriyaareasituatedinthelowerreachesoftheEuphrates,wheresalinitylevelshaveincreasedfour-foldinthepast30years.Theprojectwillcollectbaselinedataonsalinityinthearea,setupsalinitymonitoringsystems,andestablishon-farmsitestotestandpromoteremedialmeasures.

Combating Salinity in Iraq

It targets irrigatedwheat-based farming systems in central and southern Iraq, where yields have fallen sharplybecauseofsalinityinsoilandirrigationwater.Theaimistodevelopappropriatetechnologiesandinvestmentoptions(tailoredtolocalconditions)forlong-term,sustainablesalinitymanagement.

water and livelihoods Initiative (wlI), Iraq (Abu ghraib benchmark)

ThegoaloftheWLIinIraqistoimprovethelivelihoodsofhouseholdsandcommunitiesintheAbuGhraibbenchmarksitebyincreasingeconomic,social,andeducationalopportunities.Thiswillbeachievedthroughthedevelopmentandpilot-testingof an integratedwater, land-use, and livelihoods strategy. Specificareasof intervention includepolicymaking;developmentof tools forsustainablebenchmarkmanagementandproject implementationbasedoncommunityparticipation;training;andthepromotionoflandandwatermanagementpracticesandlivelihoodstrategies.Specificobjectivesinclude:

Socio-economiccomponent Bio-physicalcomponent

• Toanalysethecontributionofhouseholds’memberstorelatedagriculturalactivities;

• Toanalysefarmers’perceptionaboutwatermanagementoptions

• Toassesswaterproductivityintermsofbio-physical,economicandsocialvalues,andtoidentifykeyconstraintsofthelowwaterproductivity.

Development of conservation cropping systems in the drylands of northern Iraq

Theprojectaimstoincreasecropproductivity,profitability,andsustainabilityinthedrylandsofnorthernIraqthroughdevelopment, evaluation, and promotion of conservation cropping technologies involving zero-tillage, stubblemulching,improvedcropcultivars,andbettercropmanagement.ProjectactivityisfocusedinNinewaGovernorate.



Other projects (Miscellaneous funding including central budget)

(SwlRI II) Strategy for water and land Resources of Iraq

TheobjectiveofPhase2oftheStrategyforWaterandLandResourcesofIraq(SWLRI)istocompletethedevelopmentoftheintegratedstrategyforwaterandlandresourcesthatstartedinPhase1oftheproject.Tothisextent,theprimarygoaloftheSWRLIprojectistoputinplacethesuitableandenduringinstitutionalarrangementsforIraq’swatersector.

Phase1oftheprojectwascompletedbytheMinistryofWaterResourceswiththesupportoftheUSACEandconsultants.TheapproachincorporatedprinciplesofIntegratedWaterResourcesManagement(IWRM)andadoptedastructuredplanningapproachbasedon:

• Theneedtoestablishastrongevidencebasedescribingthecurrentstateofthewaterresourcessystem• Needsforwatersupply,floodcontrol,powergenerationandtheenvironment• Opportunitiesforthefuture,includingsupplyanddemandsidemeasures,landusechange,andthe

establishmentoftransboundaryagreementsbetweenIraqandupstreamcountriesMinistry of Agriculture Activities

TheministryofAgriculturethroughtheCouncilforDesertificationhasbeenquiteactiveintermsofdroughtcombatantactivitiesandprojects.Keyprojectsandactivitiesincludethefollowing:

• Sanddunesstabilizationproject• ReclamationofDesertOasesproject• HammadBasinDevelopmentproject• Droughttolerantdemonstrationfarmsprojects• Groundwaterwellsdrillingprojects•IOM Activities

TheIOMyearlyplan,undertheCommunityAssistanceProjectsCAPsfrom2003-2012,addressedthelocalneedsandincreasedtheabsorptioncapacityofreturncommunitiesthroughdesigningprojectsthatcoverthepriorityneedsaspertheIOMpriorityneeds.AssessmentforwatersectorforinterventiontoaccomplishthefollowingtargetsundertheWaterandSanitationSector:

• Provingaccesstocleanandadequatesourceofwaterthroughimprovethecapacityoftheinstalledwatertreatmentcompactunits

• Rehabilitationandinstallationofpumpingstations• Rehabilitationandextensionofwaternetworksandsystems• Provisionandmaintenanceofwatercompactunits• Rehabilitation and construction of sanitation units in schools and areas that target high percentage of

beneficiariesinlocalcommunities• ImprovetheawarenessonhygieneandwaterusagethroughconductingawarenesscampaignsAccordingly,IOMhasmanagedtoaccomplish200watersanitationprojectstargetinghugenumberofreturnees,IDPs,and venerable host communities in 12 governorates (Babil, Baghdad, Ninewa,Missan,Wassit, Erbil, Najaf, Diyala,Anbar,Sulaymaniyah,Basrah,andKirkuk)thatsufferfromlackofaccesstocleanandadequatesourceofwaterandlackofknowledgeaboutthebestwaterusagemanners.Therefore,thedesignedandimplementedprojectsfocusedonextendingwaternetworksin40villages,installationofROunitswithwatertanksin50villages,rehabilitatewatertreatmentcompactunitsin30villages,improvingthewatersystemin30locations,inadditiontotherehabilitationofthewatersanitationfacilitiesinseveralschoolsandconstructionofsewagesysteminbothSulaymaniyahandBasrah.Moreover,theawarenesscampaignstookplaceintheruralareasinBaghdadandWassitwiththeaimofpreventingwaterbornediseaseinsemi-ruralareasandincludedtheprovisionofaccesstosafedrinkingwaterthroughdistributingeducationalrequiredmaterialsaboutthesafehygienepractices,providinghygienekitswaterfiltersalongwithhygienetraining,andcirculatinginformationregardingwater-bornediseasesinordertopracticepreventativemeasurementsthroughtheassignedcommunityoutreachcampaigns.


6. pROpOSED MEASURES TO REDUcE AND MITIGATE DROUGHT IMpAcTS 6.1. cHALLENGES AND cONSTRAINTS FOR DROUGHT MITIGATION IN IRAQ 6.2. pROpOSED DROUGHT MITIGATION MEASURES 6.3. DROUGHT RISK ADApTATION


6. pROpOSED MEASURES TO REDUcE AND MITIGATE DROUGHT IMpAcTS 6.1. cHALLENGES AND cONSTRAINTS FOR DROUGHT MITIGATION IN IRAQTraditionally, response todrought throughout theworldhasbeena reactive,crisismanagementapproach.Thisapproachtodroughtmanagementrespondstotheimpactsofdroughtoncetheyoccurinanattempttospeedtherecoveryprocess.Thiscrisismanagementapproachhasbeennotedtobecostly,untimely,poorlycoordinated,andoftenresultsinresourcesorassistancebeingmisdirected.Droughtimpactsillustratethevulnerabilityofsocietiestodroughtandprogrammesthatprovideassistancetothoseaffectedbydroughtareessentiallytreatingthesymptomsofvulnerabilityratherthanthecauses.Manyassistanceprogrammes, infact,result in increasedvulnerabilitytofuturedroughteventsbymakingindividualsandsocietiesmorereliantongovernmentprogrammesorassistancefromdonororganizations.Asa consequenceofan increased frequencyofdroughtand societal vulnerability toextendedperiodofwatershortages,theeconomic,social,andenvironmentalimpactsofdroughtshaveincreasedsignificantlyworldwide.

Indeed, the impact of drought spreads well beyond agriculture. As greater demand for water increases withincreasingpopulationanddevelopment,periodsofwatershortagesresultingfromextendedperiodsofdeficientprecipitationandhightemperaturesoftenresultinseriousimpactsonsectorssuchasenergy,tourismandrecreation,transportation,health,andecosystemservices.Thesocio-economiceffectsofdroughtoccuratthelocallevelbutripple through theeconomy to the regional andnational levels. Inmany countries,oneof themost significanteffectsofdroughtistheirreversiblemigrationoftheaffectedruralpopulation,usuallytourbanareas.

Inrecentyears,Iraqhasbecomemoreconcernedandawareoftheneedtodevelopdroughtmanagementstrategies.However,thecountryfacesmanychallengestorealizingtheseobjectives,amongothers:

• The lack of reliable statistics to assess the long-term socio-economic effects of drought. There is a needtodocument the impactsofdroughtusingstandardizedmethodologies, inorder to identify thosesectorsmostaffectedandtodeviseandimplementmitigationmeasuresinasystematicmannerthataredirectedatreducingthoseimpacts.

• Agricultureisthemainsectorliabletodrought.Itwouldbeidealtohighlightthediverseimpactsofdroughtonfoodandfeed,inordertopreparefortheeffectsofdroughtbeforeitoccurs.

• Farmers have a tendency to become dependent on government assistance and drought compensation,whichaffectgovernmentalannualbudgets.Itwouldbeidealtoestablishnationalandregionalinstitutionstoimplementdroughtriskmanagementstrategiesonpermanentbasis.

• Globally,droughtshaveoftenbeendealtwithinareactivemanner,inwhichdroughteffectsarerespondedtoasneeded.Iraqisnotfarfromthisnorm.However,stepshavebeenundertakentomovetowardsadroughtriskmanagementapproach–apre-emptiveapproachthatreducesvulnerabilityandmakeseffectiveuseofscientificknowledgeandallavailablerelevantinformation.Furthermore,thereisaneedforimprovedpoliciesrelated to national and regionalmanagement of drought. It would be ideal to implement drought earlywarningsystems,consistingofmonitoring,prediction,andwell-developedinformationdeliverystructures.


• Thereisaneedforacomprehensivelong-termnationaldroughtstrategywithcoordinationandcooperationat local,national,andregional levels.An idealstrategywould involveoperationalearlywarningsystems–interconnectedwith internationalones–whicharethebasis foreffectivedroughtpoliciesandplans.Thedevelopment of such systems requires biophysical and socio-economic data and expertise. All availabledroughtmitigationmeasuresshouldbeadoptedwherepossible,andinvestmentsshouldbemadetowardsagricultureindryareasandrelatedresearch/developmentprogrammes.

In this context, there is need for a better understanding of the scientific basis of droughts – their definition,monitoring,impacts,andprediction–andtobringthisknowledgetosectoralexpertsinvolvedinvariousaspectsofdroughtmanagement.Understanding thehistorical frequency,duration,andspatialextentofdroughtassistsplannersindeterminingthelikelihoodandpotentialseverityoffuturedroughts.Thecharacteristicsofpastdroughtsprovidebenchmarksforprojectingsimilarconditionsintothefuture.

Atthesametime,successfulexperiencesinadoptingacomprehensiveandactiveapproachacrossvarioussectorsindealingwithdroughtsshouldbewidelyshared,andthecapacitytoapplysuchapproachesbuiltanddevelopedwhereneeded.TheestablishmentandinstitutionalizationofaNATIONALDROUGHTINFORMATIONSySTEM(NADIS)tofacilitatethescientificandofficiallyauthorizedinformationrepositorywouldcompriseacentraldatabaseandenvironmentalinformationmanagementsystem(s),plusrulesanddefinedmandatesformonitoring,earlywarning(preparedness),anddroughtmanagement(actionplanning)persector.

6.2. pROpOSED DROUGHT MITIGATION MEASURES Thedevelopmentofdroughtmitigationplansencompasseseffectivedroughtearlywarninganddeliverysystems,vulnerabilityassessments,andmitigationandresponseactions.Thedevelopmentoftheseplansmustbeaccomplishedwiththefullengagementofstakeholdersfromthemultiplesectorsaffectedbydrought.

Ingeneral,acomprehensivedroughtmitigationactionplanimpliesthefollowingsixcomponents102: • Droughtresiliencepolicies• Earlywarningandmonitoringsystems• Droughtcontingencyplanning• Droughtmitigationmeasures• Reliefmeasures• Rehabilitationmeasures

Consequently,thecomprehensivesystemshouldtakeintoconsiderationthetechnical(droughtearlywarningandmitigation),institutional,andpoliciesaspectsandhence,ithastoencouragetheriskandproactivemeasures.ThekeyaspectsthatneedtobedevelopedforproperdroughtriskmanagementintheIraqareasfollows:

Drought Early warningDroughtearlywarningisanimportantstepindroughtriskmanagement.Manyearlywarningindiceshavebeendevelopedworldwide,basedonmodellingandprovenaccurateandcredibleinformationcompiledbycompetentscientists at varying scales (short, medium, and long-terms). Among the needed data are the standardizedprecipitation index (SPI), the SurfaceWater Supply Index (SWSI), the StandardizedWater Index (SWI), thefieldmonitoringand remote sensing systems,and the socio-economic indicators. These indices/indicators shouldbeusedinanintegrativewaytohaveabetterideaofdroughtseverity.

102 FAO. (2002).


Agro-Ecological Characterization and Mapping of Drought vulnerabilityAnagro-ecologicalcharacterizationsurveycanhelpidentifyandmapzonesthatarehomogenousintermsofclimateconditions,soilcharacteristics,landscapes,andwaterresourcesundervariedlanduse.Suchapproachwouldallowtheestablishmentofdroughtvulnerabilityprofiles,thedrawingofdroughtriskmaps,andthechoiceofadaptedstrategiesofdroughtmanagementtechniques.

Drought MitigationDroughtmitigationprogrammesshouldtakeintoconsiderationlocalandindigenousknowledge.Thecombinationoflocalknowledgeandscientificapproacheswillbefruitful.Ariskmanagementapproachisencouraged.Infact,early droughtwarninghas tobeprovidedearly enough to allow theproducers and the government to launchthedroughtpreparednessprogrammesontime.Moreover,thedroughtmitigationtechnologiesdescribedaboveshouldbepromoted.

Policies and OrganizationThemicro-financestrategyusedinsomearidagriculturalzonesshouldbetestedandextendedtoIraqandothersectors(pastoralandagro-pastoralsectors)becauseitcanplayanimportantroleintheriskmanagement.Infact,micro-creditcanhelpfarmersacquireinputsanduseconservationtechniques,aswellashelppastoralistsreplacelivestockafterdrought;micro-insurancecanprotectthemfromincidencesofcropfailureandanimallosses.OneoftheArabcountriesthatsuccessfullyadoptedtheinsuranceapproachincerealproductionisMorocco.103

Thereisaneedforthecreationofanoperationalandsustainabletaskforce(centraldroughtmanagementunitorcommittee)todevelop,coordinate,andimplementthedroughtmitigationprogramme.Thiscommitteehastobemulti-disciplinaryandincludedecisionmakersandstakeholdersatnational,provincial,andlocal levels. Itneedstobe coordinatedbyanappropriate leader thathas thepower to takeactionsearlyenoughand convince thegovernmentanddonorstofunddroughtmanagementplans.Droughtearlywarningandmitigationsystemshouldbe establishedwith amore technical duty. It should include scientistswhoprovidedrought earlywarning andmitigationmeasures.Atthelocallevel,multi-institutiongroupshavetobeconstitutedtogatherrawdataneededbythescientificcommittee.

Riskmanagementofdroughtrequirestheparticipationoftheproducers,theadministration,researchinstitutions,the NGOs, international organizations, and donors. Additionally, Iraq should create a network on drought toexchangeinformationandexperiencesbetweencountries,particularlywithsimilardroughtconditions.

103 Bernardi, M. (1996). La planification des stratégies contre les effets de la sécheresse. Available online at: http://www.fao.org/sd/frdirect/Eian0005.htm (accessed 1 April 2013).

http://www.fao.org/sd/frdirect/Eian0005.htm


Moreover,aregionalstrategicdroughtpreparednessprojectmaybeestablishedinthecountry.Thisprojectwouldhaveseveralelementsandsupportindividualregionsintheirdroughtpreparednessinitiativesandactivities.Initially,it could take the formofacollaborativepartnershipnetworkwithoneormorecoordinatingnodes.The futureshapedependsonsubsequentpolicydecisions.Theelementscouldinclude:

• Coordinatingemergencystocksoffoodandotherdroughtreservesandtheirmaintenance• Informationflowfordroughtearlywarningandmonitoring• Informationflowfordroughtpreparednessandresponse(suchasnewclimateresearchfindings,

newlandandwatermanagementpractices,newdrought-tolerantbreedsandvarieties,socialandcommunityprocessestohelpcommunitiespreparefordrought,andwaystopurifydrinkingwater)

• Monitoringofregionaldroughtseverityandextenttoassessclimatechangeimpacts• Focusingprioritiesforresearchanddevelopmentagencies• Capacitybuildingforastrategicapproachtodroughtpreparednessandresponse

6.3. DROUGHT RISK ADApTATIONDroughtriskadaptation istheprocessofselectingtheappropriatelevelofdroughtpreparednessconditionalondrought risk104.Thiscoversthestateofhavingplannedandtakenactionsinadvancethatreducedroughtvulnerability.Furthermore,itinvolvestheactionsthatpeopletakeinresponseto,orinanticipationof,projectedoractualimpactsofdroughttoreduceitsadverseconsequences.

Inmanycases,adaptiveactivitiesarelocal,district,regional,ornationalissuesratherthaninternational.105 Because communitiespossessdifferentvulnerabilitiesandadaptivecapabilities,theytendtobeimpacteddifferently,therebyexhibitingdifferentneedsforadaptation.Therefore,adaptationlargelyconsistsofuncoordinatedactionsatvariouslevels.However,itmayalsoinvolvecollectiveactionatthelocal,national,regional,andinternationallevels,aswellascross-scaleinteraction,wheretheselevelsmeet.106Inthislight,thefollowingsummarizesmainstrategiestobeconsideredforproperdroughtriskadaptationinIraq:

Development and implementation of drought adaptation plans for the most affected areasInviewofthecurrentdroughtandwaterdeficitconditionsinIraq,thereisaneedformoresustainedshifttowaterconservationpracticesinthecountry.Inotherwords,thegovernmentshallformulateplansandtakemeasurestoensurethatwaterisusedmoreefficientlyanddemandforirrigationwaterisreduced.Theseincorporatedevelopingplans withmeasures that promote a gradual shift tomore sustainable agricultural practices such as changingcroppingpattern in favorof lesswater intensivecrops, introducingnew irrigationsystems,andothereconomicactivitiesthatarelessvulnerabletodroughtlikelivestockandagro-industry.Additionally,thesemeasuresshouldbecomplementedbywaterconservationandwatershedmanagementactivities.

104 Wallander, S., Aillery, M., Hellerstein, D., & Hand, M. (2013). The Role of Conservation Programs in Drought Risk Adaptation. ERR-148, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service.105 Paavola, J. & Adger, T. W. (2005). Analysis of Fair Adaptation to Climate Change. Ecological Economics, 56 (2006): 594-609.106 Ibid.


Giventheimpactofthesemeasuresismedium-tolong-term,theplanswouldalsoincludeshort-termreliefandsafety net measures that would help protect the nutritional, health, and educational attainments of affectedcommunities.Thesemeasuresshouldbebuiltonexistingsuccessfulexperienceswithcommunity-basedwatershedmanagementandshouldintegraterelevantschemesbydifferentdepartmentswheneverpossible.

Enhancement of adaptive capacityLocal empowerment is essential in decision-making in order to incorporate drought adaptationwithin broadersustainabledevelopmentstrategies.ThedroughtprobleminIraqistriggeredbylimitedadaptivecapacityduetowidespread poverty, recurrent droughts, inequitable land distribution, and dependence on rainfed agriculture.Adaptationtodrought,therefore,necessitatestheadjustmentofasystemtomoderatetheimpactsofdroughtandwatershortagetotakeadvantageofnewopportunitiesandtocopewithitsconsequences.

Adaptive MeasuresBasedontheaforesaiddiscussion,droughtvulnerabilityinIraqoccursatvariousscales.Thus,successfuladaptationrequiresactionstobetakenatdifferentlevelsofthecountry.Accordingly,droughtadaptationplanningprocessesought to involve participatory, community-driven approaches. These should be aimed to help communitiesdevelopabroadlysharedandownedstrategyforsecuringstableandsustainablesourcesofincomeandlivelihood;particularlyduringdroughtevents.Thisentailsengagingdifferentpartiesofthecommunity inordertoreachtoacommonunderstandingtosupportachievingitsresults.Tosummarize,thegovernmentneedstofocusonthefollowing prerequisitemeasures toenhancedroughtadaptation:

At the national level,thegovernmentshallfocuson:• Formulation of drought policy geared toward vulnerable sectors, with emphasis on poverty

reductionandfoodsecurity• Establishment of an integrated droughtmonitoring and information system, including an early

warningsystemandfarmercopingmechanisms• Development of policies and institutions that support adaptation at the community level and

encourage private sector participation, allowing for greater dedication of resources to thedevelopmentofadaptivetechnologiesandinnovations

• Training of mid-level professionals working with different organizations and governmentaldepartments and launching a regional training program with local universities about droughtpreparednessandadaptation

• Resource allocation for the development of adaptive technologies and innovations to enhancesustainable economic growth


At the community level, thegovernmentshallconsider:• Establishmentofappropriatesocialinstitutionsandarrangementsthatdiscouragemarginalization

ofvulnerablepopulationandenhancecollective/participatorydecision-makingprocess• Diversification of income sources and livelihood systems that reduce vulnerability and risks,

especiallyforthepoor• Introductionof collectivesecurityarrangements suchas farmers’ cooperativesandcommunity-

basedorganizations(CBOs)• Building capacity of smallholder farmers and extension staff, including NGOs and civil society

organizations(CSOs),toadoptandpromoteintegratedwatermanagementinterventions• Provisionof knowledge, technology,policy, institutional, andfinancial support, similar to credit

facilitiesforthevulnerablecommunities• Upgrading rainfed agriculture through on site rainwater harvesting systems and other farming

practicesthatretainwaterincropland(terraces,contourbunds,ridges,tiedridges,plantingpits,conservationagriculture,etc.)

• Enhancing supplementary irrigation systems and farming practices that supply water to cropsduringcriticalgrowthstages


7. cONcLUSIONS AND REcOMMENDATIONS7.1. cONcLUSIONS7.2. REcOMMENDATIONS


7. cONcLUSIONS AND REcOMMENDATIONS7.1. cONcLUSIONSAmongtheenvironmentalchallengesencounteredbyIraq,droughthasbeenidentifiedasthemostseriousnaturaldisaster facing the country107. During the last decade the country experienced severe droughts from 2007 to2009andagainfrom2010to2011.Thefrequencyandseverityofdroughtsincreasedsignificantly,suggestingthepossibilityoffurtherdroughtsinthecomingyears.Duetomanyyearsofconflict,Iraqfacesalackofmeteorologicalinformationincludingrelevantindicatorsondroughtbasedonprecipitation.Droughtsinthecountryarenormallyidentifiedbasedontheirimpactsoncetheyhavealreadyoccurred.Toaddresstheissueandtosupportformulatinganationalframeworkfor integratedDroughtRiskManagement,thepresentstudyanalysedthelong-termtrendinprecipitationandairtemperatureandproducedanindex,theStandardPrecipitationIndex(SPI),toidentifythepastdroughtperiods,theirseverityandspreadacrossthecountry.Moreover,basedonthepastinformation,futuredroughtswereforecastedtoindicatethemostvulnerableareas.

Accordingtotheresults,Iraqhadameanannualprecipitationof207mmfortheperiod1980to2011andameanannualmonthlyairtemperatureof23°C.Climatologicalconditionsarechangingandleadingthecountrytobecomemoresusceptibletofurtherdiminishingprecipitation. Ingeneral,despitedifferencesacrossgovernoratesduringthe referenceperiod,all governoratesexperienceda reduction inprecipitation in the last tenyears. The trendforthemeantemperatureshowsthatsince2006themeanairtemperaturehasbeenhigherthanthelong-termmean.ThegovernoratesofKerbala,Babil,Najaf,andMuthanna,inthesouthernandcentralpartofIraq,havethelowestprecipitationratesacrossthecountry,whileSulaymaniyah,Dahuk,andKirkukhavethehighestprecipitationrates.Theseresultssuggestthatsomegovernoratesaremorevulnerablethanothers.Adroughtinagovernoratealreadyexperiencingprecipitationdeficitswillhaveastrongerimpactonwaterresources;andthus,itwillaffectthepopulationmoreintensely.

AsconfirmedbytheSPI,duringthelast31years,severedroughtsaffectedthewholecountry.Allgovernoratesareconsidereddroughtproneareas.Somearecurrentlyexperiencingdrought(Ninewa,Salahal-Din,Kirkuk,Missan,Anbar),whileothersareconsideredhighlyvulnerabletoit(BaghdadandBasrah).Duringthe31yearsanalysed,fourevidentdroughtstookplacein2000,2006,2008,and2009.Moreover,theseverityandfrequencyofdroughthasworsenedinthepast12years.ThehighestdroughtmagnitudewasidentifiedinthegovernoratesofNinewa,Kirkuk,Basrah,Babil,andDiyala.ExtremedroughtshavebeenrecordedinNinewaandBasrahin2008andinKirkukduringtheyears1983and1992.Baghdadisoneofthegovernoratesthatexperiencedfrequentseveredroughts.Governoratesinthesouthernandnorth-westernpartsofIraqarethemostdrought-affectedgovernoratescomparedtothenorthernandnorth-easterngovernorates,wherethefrequencyofdroughtislower.

Inaddition,fromtheprecipitationforecastandSPI,droughtseverityisestimatedtoincreaseovertime.Moderatetoseveredroughtsareexpectedinthecountryfrom2017to2026.Themeanprecipitationisprojectedtodecreasebyalmost3%ascomparedtothemeanforthesamepasttimescaleperiod108.Accordingtotheresults,thegovernoratesofDiyala,Ninewa,andAnbarwillexperienceeighttonineyearsofsuccessivedrought.

yearsofdroughtinIraqarereflectedinthereductionofwaterquantityandqualityforbothsurfaceandgroundwater.TheflowoftheEuphratesandTigrisrivershasdecreasedformanyreasons.Amongotherreasons,theconstructionofdamsfromripariancountrieshassignificantlyreducedwaterlevelsoftherivers.Nonetheless,yearsofdroughthavealsoaffectedthelevelofwaterintheriverbasin.Groundwateralsoexperiencedareductioninquantityandanincreaseinsalinitylevels;thus,someresourcesarenotsuitableforeitherdomesticuseoragriculture.Waterlevelsareanticipatedtodecreasesignificantlyasforeseeabledroughtareexpectedtotakeplace.ThemostvulnerablereservoirsarethoselocatedinvulnerableareassuchasthegovernoratesofQadissiya,Diyala,andNinewa.107 The Government of Iraq (GoI) and the High Level Committee for Disaster Risk Reduction (HLCDRR) as cited in: United Nations-Iraq UNDAF Fund Joint Programme. Available online at http://mdtf.undp.org/document/download/7152 (accessed 1 November 2012).108 1997-2011.



TheIraqimarsheshavenotbeenimmunefromtheeffectsofdrought.ThesuccessoftheirrestorationisstronglyrelatedtotheupcomingprecipitationandtheassociatedwateravailabilityintheTigrisandEuphratesrivers.Duringthelastdecade,droughtsreducedthesizeofthemarshestothesameareatheyoccupiedin2003,hinderingtheGoI’seffortstorestoretheMarshlandsto75%oftheiroriginalsize.

Thedrought thatoccurredbetween2007and2009stronglyaffectedhydropowergeneration in themaindamsinKurdistanRegion,sinceproductiondependsonthepatternofprecipitationandtheavailabilityofwaterintheDohukanLakeandDiyalaRiver.The reduction inelectricitygeneration fromaclean source isexpected to raiseadditionalenvironmentalissues.Thecapacityofhydropowergenerationlosshastobereplacedwithhighersharesofelectricityderivedfromoilandgassources.Therefore, inadroughtscenarioan increase inCO2emissions isexpected.

Droughtalsoeffectsagriculturalproduction,whichunderminesfoodsecurityandincreasespoverty.Themoderateandseveredroughts thatwillaffect thecountry in thenext15yearsareexpectedtohavenegative impactsonagricultureproduction,andthiswillaffectthemostvulnerablepeoplelivinginruralareaswhorelyonagriculturetheir primary livelihood. This is true especially for those governorates characterized by a high dependence onagricultural production and with higher unemployment rates. According toWFP, average wheat production isexpectedtofallby12.5%by2020duetothereductioninprecipitationandtheincreasingtemperature.Thiswillinturnincreasefoodinsecurityandpoverty.Theincomeofruralfarmersisestimatedtodecreaseby8%by2020,andasaconsequence,theaveragedailyintakeofdietaryenergyofresidentsmaydecreaseby3%.

Thelossofincomerelatedtodroughthasalreadypushedmanyhouseholdstomovefromdryzonestoareaswithimprovedwateravailability–mostlycities–withworseoflivingconditionsinurbanzones.Nearly4,263familiesweredisplacedduetowaterscarcitybetweenDecember2007andJune2009.ThesouthofIraqexperiencedhugepopulationmovementduetothedrainageoftheMarshlands: InThi-Qar,Missan,andBasrah,respectively81%,33%,and12%ofIDPsweredisplacedduetoinsufficientwater.Drought,watersalinity,andpollutionarealsoamongthemajorfactorspreventingIDPsfromreturningtotheiroriginalcommunities.

Accordingtotheresultsoftheanalysis,droughthadnegativeconsequencesonhealth.Thehigherconcentrationofpollutants,sediments,andmineralsinwaterduetothereductioninsurfaceandgroundwaterlevels,aswellasthehighertemperatureandtheincreasingoccurrenceofduststormsappearstoberelatedwiththehigherincidenceofdiarrhoea,cholera,typhoid,otherwaterbornediseases,andchronicrespiratoryillnessesobservedduringyearsof drought.

Asinmanycountriesthroughouttheworld,Iraq’sapproachtodroughtmanagementhasbeenreactiveandmoreorientedtowardsrespondingtotheimpactsofdroughtoncetheyoccur,inanattempttospeedtherecoveryprocess.Thecountrydealswithdroughtthroughtheestablishmentof‘droughtcrisismitigationemergencycells’ratherthanbyapplyingapre-emptivemanagementapproachtoreducevulnerability.Evenifthecountryhasbecomemoreconcernedandawareoftheneedtodevelopdroughtmanagementstrategies,severalobstaclestorealizingthisobjectiveremain.Thescarcityofreliablestatisticscomplicatestheassessmentoflong-termsocio-economiceffectsofdrought.Methodologies todocument these impactsarenot standardized; thus,oftenavailable statisticsarenotcomparable.Policiesrelatedtonationalandregionalmanagementofdroughtaregenerallyunsatisfactoryorlacking.Nationalandregionalinstitutionsestablishedtomanagedroughtremaininadequateand,ingeneral,theyarenotproperlyoperational.

Adroughtearlywarningsystemtomonitor,predict,anddeliverinformationdoesnotexist.Moreover,whenscientificinformationisavailable,itisnotfullyincorporatedintodecision-makingprocessesbecauseofthelackofadequatecapacitytousedroughtforecasts.Anotherconstraintistheabsenceofacomprehensivelong-termnationaldroughtstrategyandthelackofcoordinationandcooperationatlocal,national,andregionallevels.


Operational earlywarning systems – interconnectedwith international ones,which are the bases for effectivedroughtpoliciesandplans–donotexist.Moreover,althoughmanydroughtmitigationmeasuresareavailable,theyarenotadoptedbecauseoftheinefficiencyofthetechnologydisseminationandexchangesystemsduetothelackorminimalinvestmentinagricultureindryareasandinrelatedresearch/developmentprogrammes.

Giventhattheimpactsofdroughtareakeyindicatorofvulnerability,thereisanurgentneedtodocumenttheminordertoidentifythosesectorsmostaffectedandtodeviseandimplementmitigationmeasuresinasystematicmanner.Thereisneedforabetterunderstandingofthescientificbasisofdroughts–theirdefinition,monitoring,impacts,andprediction–andtobringthisknowledgetosectoralexpertsinvolvedindroughtmanagement.

7.2. REcOMMENDATIONS Basedontheresultsoftheanalysesandconclusionsmadeabove,thereportrecommendsthefollowingmeasuresinordertosupportIraqigovernmenttoformulateanationalframeworkforintegratedDroughtRiskManagement.Theserecommendationsdonotattemptto identifyactivitiestobeundertakenbythegovernment;rather, theyidentifythekeyfocusareasforthedevelopmentandimplementationofthesubsequentphasesoftheproject.

A comprehensivedroughtmitigationactionplan shouldbeestablished through the implementationofdroughtresiliencepolicies,earlywarningandmonitoringsystems,droughtcontingencyplanning,droughtmitigation,andreliefandrehabilitationmeasures.

Data gap elimination• Developthecurrentmeteorologicalsystemtoincludeanearlywarningsystemaswellasamoreefficient

and accurate collection and classification of meteorological information based on an AUTOMATEDTELEMETRICMETEOROLOGICALOBSERVATIONSySTEM(ATMOS).

• Simplifyaccesstothis informationtoencouragethedevelopmentofusefuldrought indexestobetterrepresentthedroughtseverityacrossthecountry.

• DevelopaMasterPlanforaNaturalResourcesandDroughtManagementDatabank.Fromascientificpoint of view, UNESCO highly recommends the development, establishment and institutionalizationofaNATIONALDROUGHTINFORMATIONSySTEM(NADIS)tofacilitateandrepresentthescientificandofficiallyauthorizedinformationrepositorycomprisingacentraldata-baseandenvironmentalinformationmanagementsystem(s),plusrulesanddefinedmandatesformonitoring,earlywarning(preparedness)anddroughtmanagement(actionplanning)persector.

• Articulateneedsandusesforhydrological,climatological,andmeteorologicaldatatoguideanoptimizedspatial distribution and placement of hydro-meteorological observation stations. UNESCO highlyrecommendstoestablishaNATIONALOBSERVATIONPROGRAMMEFORIRAQ(NOPI),whichmaintainsoversightofsectoractivities,andaneffectiveinstitutionalempowermentofNADIS.

• Under NADIS, develop a Meteo-Master Plan Application (MPA) to provide a comprehensive pictureof Iraq’s climatological andmeteorological conditions, aswell as any future scenarios,basedondataderivedfromATMOS.Keydata,soundindicators,andappropriatelychosenparametersarepresentlynotsufficientlydefined.

Enhancement of data communication• Improvecombinedaccesstoautomaticdatacollectionmechanismsandtelecommunications.Automated

meteorological(ATMOS)andgaugingstations,suchasaTELEMETRICWATERRESOURCESOBSERVATIONNETWORK(TeWaRON)wheretelecommunicationsareeasilyaccessed,willreducevisitstostations,alertstafftoequipmentmalfunction,andfacilitatedatasharing,whichcanshifttheburdenofdatareductionandqualitycontroltocollaborators.Moreover,communicatingdatathroughdata-sharingnetworkswill


improvereal-timedatavisualizationandreducetheburdenofmetadatamanagement.TeWaRONandNADISwillbecoordinatedunderNOPIonanationallevel,servingtheregionalandlocalgovernmentalresponsibilities at the same time and providing remotely accessible official data repositories andadministrativesupportfunctions.

Integration of drought and water resources’ planning• Integrate drought and water resources’ planning to benefit drought management and monitoring

processesinIraq.Theoccurrenceofdroughtandfloodsrelatestoprecipitation,waterlevels,andnaturalresourcesaswellashydrologicalandculturalpractices.Hence,planningfordroughtorfloodingtakesonsocioeconomicandenvironmentalsignificance.

• Developamodelforintegratingdroughtandwaterplanningusingawaterresourcesdatabase,feedingintosectorinformationsystemsandplanningtoolsfordecisionsupport.Thedatabaseisacomprehensivedata storage system forwater-related data such as surface and groundwater supply and informationaboutwater use and demand, including flow requirements for ecosystems (establishment of NADIS,TeWaRONbothunderNOPI).

• Incorporate socio-economic-environmental knowledge and norms into the planning tool to highlightvulnerabilities to reduced supply and ultimately inform water resource planning. Furthermore,understandingvulnerabilityiscrucialtodroughtearlywarningandcouldhelpinformhowtoassessandmonitor drought.

Comprehensive natural resource analysis• Undertake comprehensive resource analysis and a study of land use in drought-prone areas with

consideration of water resources, potential productivity of crops, environmental problems, land usepatterns,croppingsystems,waterandforestresources,livestock,andfodderresources.

Education and public awareness campaign on water usage and planning• CreatepublicawarenessaboutdroughtinIraqandeducateaboutefficientuseofwaterforeffectivedrought

planningandpreparedness,particularlyfortheyoungergenerations.Coordinatededucationcampaignsshould target all levels of the community on the importanceofwater conservation and tap the vastknowledgeofcommunityelders.Extensionandawarenessactivitiesshouldreinforcetheunderstandingthatdroughtsrecur.Thefocusshouldbemoreonsustainablenaturalresourcemanagementasapartofdroughtpreparednessdrills.

Enhancement of governmental policies and systemsWithinthecontextofthe“DevelopmentofaNationalFrameworkforIntegratedDroughtRiskManagement(IDRM)inIraq”project,UNESCOprovidestheGovernmentofIraq–representedbytheMinistryofEnvironmentandtheHigherCommitteeonEnvironmentfortheKRG,andtherelevantlineministriesoftheCentralGovernmentandKRG–withafoundationforthedevelopmentofaBest-Practices’ToolboxofferingguidingprinciplesforDRMinIraq.SuchatoolboxshallenablestakeholderstoappropriatelyaddressallrelevantdimensionsofDRM.Theseneedtobefullyreflectedforeachrespectiveauthoritymandatedwithdroughtmanagement.Itishighlyrecommendedto:• Implementpoliciesatalllevelstoencouragetheuptakeofmorewaterefficienttechnologiessuchasnew

methodsofirrigationandrehabilitationoftraditionalwaterstorages.• Promotenewapproaches,strategies,andmethodstoincludefarmingsystems,resources,andlivelihood

indrought-proneareas.• Integratewatershedmanagementwithenterprisediversificationbasedoncarryingcapacityandproduct

valueaddition(e.g.encouragetheuseofimprovedandresilientcropstoincreasefarmingincome). Thislineofactionoffersthepotentialtoensureoptimumresourceutilization,sustainability,andincomemaximization,particularlyforfarmers.


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