Integrated assessment of socio-economic risks of dangerous hydrological phenomena in Russian coastal

zones of the Baltic, the Azov and the Black Seas

Lomonosov Moscow State University

Faculty of GeographyNatural Risk Asessment

Laboratory (NRAL)

Vyacheslav Baburin Stepan Zemtsov

Object – aqua-territorial systems

Subject – influence of natural processes (flood, underflooding, surges) on aqua-territorial systems

Purpose – an estimation of influence (risk and damage assessment) of natural processes on aqua-territorial systems

Object and purpose

Municipal districts and main cities of Krasnodar

region (Krasnodarsky kray)

Coastal zones of Leningrad region

(Leningradskaya oblast)

Ecological sphere

Technosphere1.Infrastructure 2.Fixed funds

Sociosphere1. Socio-demographic parameters

2. Ecomomic parameters3. Political-administrative parameters

4. Cultural parameters

Psychological sphere

Aqua-territorial socio-economic system

Natural hazards

FloodHeavy rain

SurgeIce

Waterlogging

Antroposphere

The basic concept of Russian approach

Databases

•Estimation of potential damages for population and economy of the Baltic Sea coastal zones from flood, underflooding and surges

•Methodology: calculation of potential damage

•Indicators: population, capital assets, building area, the value of land and real estate, GRP, etc.

•Information Base: Rosstat, satellite images, maps, reports of economic units

•Vulnerability assessment of coastal municipalities of Krasnodar Region during floods, underflooding and surges

•Methodology: calculation of vulnerability index

•Indicators: population, capital assets, infrastructure, industry, tertiary sphere, etc.

•Information base: Rosstat, ministries and departments, Administration of Krasnodar Region and municipalities

Methods of damage and vulnerability assessment

Susceptibility

Public infrastructureHousing

conditionsPoverty and dependencies Economic capacity Index

Length of improved water source / people

Length of improved

sanitation / people

The share of the inhabitants in

fragile dwellings

The share of the population with incomes below the subsistence

minimum

The share of the population

benefiting from social assistance

to pay for housing services

The share of the population served by the departments of social services at home for senior

citizens and disabled

Sales of own-produced goods,

works and services / people

 

0,075 0,075 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,25 0,33

Lack of coping capacity  

Government and authorities Medical servicesSocial

networksMaterial coverage Index  

Unemployment rate

The share of own revenues of

local budgets

Number of hospital beds

per 10000 inhabitants

Number of physicians per

10000 inhabitants

Share of participants in

voluntary groups for the protection

of public order

Average monthly wages per capita

   

0,1 0,10 0,22 0,22 0,26 0,1 0,33  

Lack of adaptive capacity      

EducationEnvironmental management

Adaptation strategies

Investment Index      

Share of employed

people with good education

Observed /Maximum flood

area

Diversification of the labour

market (Herfindahl–Hirschman

Index)

Private investment /

people       

0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,33     

WorldRiskIndex approach. Selected indicators from database

Exposure and vulnerability indeces

Key results

• Database (Excel format) of potential flood damage for the Baltic Sea region was prepared

• Methodology of potential damage estimation was developed.

• Potential damage assessment to dangerous hydrological processes was conducted for coastal zones of Baltic sea

• The article was prepared (in Russian).

•Database (Excel format) of social vulnerability to dangerous hydrological phenomena in coastal municipalities of Krasnodar region was prepared

•Index of vulnerability has been calculated for coastal municipalities of Krasnodar region using the methodology of the UN University.

•The article was published in Russian and was prepared in English

Development of integrated risk assessment methods for river basins of Krasnodar Region

Potential results: 1. Integrated databases for population and economic entities of Krasnodar Region. 2. The surveys of population and expert interviews. 3. Reaction model of territorial socio-economic system to unfavorable and dangerous natural phenomena

in the basins of Krasnodar region.Expedition: “Multifactor vulnerability assessment for socio-economic systems of coastal municipalities to

dangerous hydrological phenomena”Object of study: Slavyansk municipal district of Krasnodar region.Stages and methods: 1. Preparatory.a. Collect detailed statistics on study areas, prepare questionnaire for survey and experts b. Prepare natural risks maps (in hydrology) at the settlement levelc. The calculation of potential property damage and possible loss of life to various levels of flooding2. Field tripa. Survey areas - verification assessment of material damage.b. Survey of the local population.c. Meeting with representatives of the administration, emergency, local scientists. 3. Cameral.a. Poll data analysis (SPSS): identification of populations, areas, etc.b. Mapping for damage and vulnerability.c. Preparation of recommendations for changes to legislation for coastal zones (including the prohibition

of living and raising insurance premiums on the most dangerous sections).

Large-scale maps of settlements in different areas of flooding risk, speed of evacuation, placement of hazard warning objects, etc.

Thank you for your attention!