Integrated and Interdisciplinary Earthquake Impact Assessment · Integrated and Interdisciplinary...
Transcript of Integrated and Interdisciplinary Earthquake Impact Assessment · Integrated and Interdisciplinary...
Mid-America Earthquake Center
Integrated and Interdisciplinary Earthquake
Impact Assessmentfor Mitigation, Response and Recovery
Amr Elnashai, FREng
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA
Mexico City, 27-30 June 2011
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Overview
The Total Risk Management Cycle
Earthquake Impact Assessment Uses and Importance
Components
Example application
Integration of Multidisciplinary Communities Integration of engineering disciplines and sub-disciplines
Integration of social, economic and physical sciences and engineering
Risk Consequences Modeling Flood Potential
Transportation and Utilities Systems
Temporary housing optimization
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The Total Risk Management Cycle
Risk
Identification
Consequence
Assessment
Planning and
Mitigation
Response to
Incident
Recovery
to Normality
Hazard-Generated
Needs
Response-
Generated Needs
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Components of Earthquake Impact Assessment
Hazard
maps
Inventory
data
Visuali-
zation
Damage
prediction
Integration
Fragility
functions
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Importance of Earthquake Impact Assessment
Determination of credible worst
case damage and loss
Prioritization of mitigation
plans
Aid in development of response
and recovery efforts
Emergency response capabilities
Utility network viability
Transportation network capacity
Tool to educate public on
earthquake preparedness
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Impact Assessment Scenario Components
Location of earthquake and length of fault
Attenuation – how does shaking change with distance?
Site response – what is the soil type?
Liquefaction – how likely is it that the soil fails and the structure sinks?
Inventory – what are the asset we have?
Fragility – how is each asset type affected by the shaking?
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Components of Impact Assessment
and Challenges in Defining the
Components
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Hazard Definition
Different shaking
parameters are
required to determine
vulnerability of
different infrastructure
types
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Inventory
Defines population and the built environment
Major Inventory Categories Population demographics
General buildings
Essential facilities
Transportation lifelines
Utility lifelines
High Potential-Loss Facilities
High-rise, long span
Monuments
Stadia, arenas
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Fragility Functions
Fragility curves relate ground
shaking to likelihood of being in
a certain damage state
Numerous ground shaking
parameters are employed in
fragility curves
A lack of fragilities for notable
critical infrastructure (cell
towers, long-span bridges and
high-rise buildings) hinder
comprehensive assessment
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Social Impact and Economic Losses Models
Provide estimates of displaced population and shelter requirements
Advanced modeling may include Feeding requirements
Housing requirements
Medical requirements
Search and rescue requirements
Direct economic losses include loss of infrastructure value and replacement cost
Indirect economic losses include business interruption and loss of market share
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Example Application
The New Madrid Seismic Zone Scenario
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Earthquakes in the New Madrid Region
Series of events, Mw ~ 7.2 - 8.1
Damage Area = 600,000 km2
Perception Area = 5,000,000 km2
Damage to structures not
significant due to sparse
population
Significant changes to the
topography
Large waves in the Mississippi
Sand BlowsLiquefaction
ducts
Roots Uplifts
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Estimated regional impacts for sequential rupture scenario:
715,000 damaged buildings
Over 2.6 million people without electric power at Day 1
More than 85,000 casualties (injuries and fatalities)
$300 billion in DIRECT economic losses
50 million tons of debris
Estimated Impacts
StateNo. Damaged
Buildings
No. Damaged
Bridges
Power
Outages*Casualties
Total Direct
Economic Loss
Alabama
Arkansas
Illinois
Indiana
15,400
162,000
45,000
14,000
0
1,100
160
0
235,000
330,000
237,000
222,000
1,000
15,300
6,300
2,000
$14 billion
$40 billion
$44 billion
$12 billion
Kentucky
Mississippi
Missouri
Tennessee
68,400
57,500
87,000
265,000
250
10
1,000
1,050
329,000
233,000
313,000
709,000
6,900
6,100
14,100
34,200
$53 billion
$17 billion
$49 billion
$69 billion
* Represents the number of
households without electric
power on Day 1.
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Interdisciplinary Collaboration for
Engineering Impact Assessment
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Open Source System for Physical Earthquake Impact
Impact Assessment
Instrumentation
Fragility Analysis
Model Calibration Hazard
Characterization
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Open Source System for Physical Earthquake Impact
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Interdisciplinary Collaboration
for Comprehensive Impact Assessment
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Open Source Integrated System for Earthquake Impact
Loss Models Implementation
HCI Applications for MAEviz
Deployment on the Grid
Quantitative Social Impact
Decision Dynamics
Organizational Structure
Economic Impact Models
Ground Motion Maps
Strong-motion Records
Social
SciencesInformation
TechnologyCRM
Framework
Framework Development
The Three Test Beds
Uncertainty Management
Engineering
Engines
Uniform Fragilities
Dynamic Transportation
Networks & Interaction
Inventory Technologies
Multi-hazards InteractionNISRAF
Consequence-based Risk Management - CRM
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Stakeholder-centric Earthquake Impact Assessment
Framework
Development
Information
Technology
Social
Science
Engineering
Engines
Education
Outreach
Memphis Test Bed
Transportation Test Bed
Emergency Management Test Bed
South CarolinaSouth Carolina
Federal Highway
Administration
FEMAFEMA
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Advanced Features in Open Source MAEviz
Flooded facilities
Dynamic traffic flow
Utility networks loss of service
Utility networks interaction
Multiple earthquakes
Optimization of temporary housing
http://mae.cee.uiuc.edu/software_and_tools/maeviz.html
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Multi-objective Optimization of Temporary Housing
1.1 Employment and educational opportunities
1.2 Displacement distance
1.3 Housing quality
1.4 Delivery time
3.1 Geology and soils
3.2 Water quality
3.3 Air quality
3.4 Noise
2.1 Hazardous geographic locations
2.2 Hazardous geographic areas
1.5 Capacity to support medical and safety needs
Others …
4.1 Infrastructure andlifeline systems cost
4.2 Installation andconstruction costs
4.3 Rental/ownershipcost
4.4 Operating costs
Others …
1.6 Access to essentialutilities and services
Socioeconomic Model
Safety Model Environmental Model
Comprehensive Cost Model
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Optimization Solutions and Tradeoffs
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Disaster Impact Assessment – Why and How
Essential for informed decision-making on
mitigation, response and recovery … planning
and execution
Everything can be modeled; mathematical,
informational or hybrid
Communities are best served by opening source
codes
Interdisciplinary teams are critical for success
Information technology provides collaboration
tools that facilitate interdisciplinary interactions
from start to end