Instituto Universitario de Investigación del Automóvil jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of...
-
Upload
lambert-barker -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
1
Transcript of Instituto Universitario de Investigación del Automóvil jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of...
Instituto Universitario de Investigación del Automóvil
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis in two traffic on accidents: the analysis in two
transportation corridorstransportation corridors
Blanca Arenas RamírezBlanca Arenas Ramírez
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
2
Contens
۞ INTERURBAN ROADS OF RCE NETWORK
Methodology developed to analyze the influence of traffic conditions: volume and traffic
composition, on accidents on different types of interurban roads belonging to the Spanish
network, by applying negative binomial models.
۞ HEAVY GOODS VEHICLES TRAFFIC EFFECTS
۞ SPANISH FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION CORRIDORS
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Data
• AP: toll motorways• AV: roads with limited access and free
motorways• C: single carriageway roads• DC: two undivided dual carriageways
Road types:
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Data
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Data
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Data
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Data
• Increasing trend in goods traffic,
• Increase in mobility on the Spanish network and,
• Greater severity of accidents with the involvement of HGV on interurban roads
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Methodology
• Expression for the regression model:
• General expression for the estimated model:
jjj vkE
M
m jvkXYjE mjm1
loglogˆˆexpˆ 0
: Accident rate
: Exposure
j
jvk
1 with...% , HGVAADTXand mj
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Methodology
• The most general expression for the predicted number of accident:
DCAVAPi
vkHGVRoad
HGVAADTYE
iiii
,,
log%log
%loglogˆexpˆ 210
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Results
• Expressions of the accident rates by road types (i) and segment (j) are calculated to be:
ij
ijij
vk
YEˆ
1639.01111.0
2491.01111.0
0103.01111.0
0638.01111.0
%2402.1ˆ
%3405.0ˆ
%4368.0ˆ
%2736.0ˆ
jjC
jjDC
jjAV
jjAP
HGVAADT
HGVAADT
HGVAADT
HGVAADT
j
j
j
j
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Accident rates λh by road type
Accident rates λha by road type
[IP 95%]
Global AP AV DC C
0.264 0.104 0.150 0.209 0.290
IP (Λ h) [0; 1.001] [0; 0.396] [0; 0.567] [0; 0.804] [0; 1.098]
0.259 0.106 0.162 0.213 0.324
Differences2.13% -1.60% -7.65% -1.92% -10.37%
h
h
site new aat safety of interval prediction :
site new aat safety :
equationsby rateaccident calculated:ˆ
rateaccident observed :
/kilometres-hiclemillion ve 1per people injured with accidents are Rates
h
h
h
h
iTa
IP
vkA i
Results
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Scenarios of AADTHGV changes with and without any change to total vehicular traffic intensity (AADT):
ADDT changes
AADTHGV changes
a:-10%
b: 0% c:10%oo
-20% 20%
A: -10% Aa Ab Ac
B: -20% Ba Bb Bc
Scenarios
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Freight transportation corridor: MB
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Freight transportation corridor: SB
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Freight transportation corridors
PREDICTED (Y_i) AND OBSERVED (ATi) ACCIDENTS IN MADRID- BARCELONA CORRIDOR
UPPER AND LOWER PREDICTION LIMITS (LS(Yij)-LI(Yij) ). YEAR 2002
-1
4
9
14
19
24
29
34
39
44
49
54
59
" " "
AUTOPISTA AP 2 - AP 7 AUTOVIA N 2 CONVENCIONALN 2
TIPO DE VÍA
Nº
AT
LS(Yij) Yi_02 LI(Yij) AT02
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Freight transportation corridorsPREDICTED (Y_i) AND OBSERVED (ATi) ACCIDENTS IN MADRID- BARCELONA
CORRIDORUPPER AND LOWER PREDICTION LIMITS (LS(Yij)-LI(Yij) ). YEAR 2003
-1
9
19
29
39
49
59
" " "
AUTOPISTA AP 2 - AP 7 AUTOVIA N 2 CONVENCIONALN 2
TIPO DE VÍA
Nº
AT
AT03 Yi_03 LS(Yij) LI(Yij)
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
HGVs subtruction scenarios in MB corridor • Variation in vk exposure and the number of accidents in the Aa,
Ab and Ac scenarios, over the MB corridor:
Scenarios Ai, i = a,b,c over the MB corridor. Variation in vk exposure and the number of accidents Δvk%; (ΔAT %)
Road type Aa Ab Ac
AP -0.81% 0.81%
(-15.43%) (-14.79%) (-14.16%)
AV -1.05% 1.05%
(-13.58%) (-12.72%) (-11.86%)
C -2.59% 2.59%
(18.18%) (20.96%) (23.72%)
MB corridor -1.09% 1.09%
(-11.20%) (-10.22%) (-9.24%)
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
HGVs subtruction scenarios in MB corridor• Variation in vk exposure and the number of accidents in the Ba,
Bb and Bc scenarios, over the MB corridor:
Scenarios Bi, i = a,b,c over the MB corridor. Variation in vk exposure and the number of accidents Δvk%; (ΔAT %)
Road type Ba Bb Bc
AP -1.61% 1.61%
(-16.38%) (-15.11%) (-13.85%)
AV -2.11% 2.11%
(-14.48%) (-12.76%) (-11.04%)
C -5.17% 5.17%
(16.83%) (22.46%) (28.06%)
MB corridor -2.18% 2.18%
(-12.15%) (-10.19%) (-8.23%)
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
HGVs subtruction scenarios in SB corridor• Variation in vk exposure and the number of accidents in the Aa,
Ab and Ac scenarios, over the SB corridor:
Scenarios Ai, i = a,b,c over the SB corridor. Variation in vk exposure and the number of accidents Δvk%; (ΔAT %)
Road type Aa Ab Ac
AP -0.59% 0.59%
(-9.86%) (-9.38%) (-8.89%)
AV -0.77% 0.77%
(-8.64%) (-8.27%) (-7.79%)
C -0.85% 0.85%
(6.52%) (7.26%) (7.85%)
SB corridor -0.73% 0.73%
(-4.36%) (-3.85%) (-3.34%)
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
HGVs subtruction scenarios in SB corridor• Variation in vk exposure and the number of accidents in the Ba,
Bb and Bc scenarios, over the SB corridor:
Scenarios Bi, i = a,b,c over the SB corridor. Variation in vk exposure and the number of accidents Δvk%; (ΔAT %)
Road type Ba Bb Bc
AP -1.18% 1.18%
(-10.53%) (-9.56%) (-8.60%)
AV -1.55% 1.55%
(-9.04%) (-8.31%) (-7.35%)
C -1.69% 1.69%
(6.42%) (7.91%) (9.09%)
SB corridor -1.46% 1.46%
(-4.73%) (-3.71%) (-2.69%)
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Results in MB corridor by HGVs subtruction
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Results in MB corridor by HGVs subtruction
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Results in SB corridor by HGVs subtruction
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
Results in SB corridor by HGVs subtruction
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
CONCLUSIONS
• For all the scenarios taken into account, on the high capacity roads (AP, AV) there is a significant reduction in the total number of accidents, which varies between 16.38% for the Ba scenario of the MB corridor and 7.35% for the Bc scenario of the SB corridor.
• Likewise, on the sections of single carriageway roads (C) there are significant increases in the total number of traffic accidents, whose maximum and minimum values are:
• 28.06% for the Bc scenario on the MB corridor and 6.52% for the Aa scenario on the SB corridor.
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
CONCLUSIONS
• In all cases a reduction in the total number of accidents would occur as a result in the drop in the number of heavy goods transport vehicles (%HGVs). This drop varies between 46 for the SB corridor Bc scenario and 141 for the MB corridor Aa scenario.
• In all cases, the higher the traffic intensity (AADT), as a result of the induction of other vehicular traffic, the higher the number of accidents is, due to the increase in exposure. This effect is greater on single carriageway road segments compared to high capacity roads
martes, 18 de abril de 2023
The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisThe influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysisIn two freight transportation corridorsIn two freight transportation corridors
Contents
Methodology
Scenarios
Results in corridor
Conclusions
Results
Freight Transp. corridors
CONCLUSIONS
• The model shows itself to be a useful tool for evaluating the effects of modal transfer policies between road and rail or other forms of transport.
• This type of analysis provides objective elements for evaluating policies that encourage modal shift and road safety enhancement.