INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Q4FY15 Results...

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

Q4FY15 Results Preview

Winter got extended INDIA | Results Preview

1 April 2015

Earnings growth likely to be disappointing: Q4FY15 will be an uninspiring quarter with an earnings de‐growth of 2.7% yoy for PhillipCapital coverage universe of 153 stocks. Sharp earnings decline in Infra (108% yoy), Cement (50% yoy), Metals (27% yoy), Oil & Gas (25%) and Capital Goods (15%) highlight the subdued investment environment which was further compounded by lower government spending to meet the fiscal deficit target. Telecom, Retail and FMCG will deliver strong earnings growth. IT sector impacted by cross currency headwinds is likely to be a mixed bag. Core sector operating parameters still sluggish: Except L&T, order book growth is still languishing for the Capital Goods sector. Even in the Cement sector the operating performance is likely to be muted. The quarter will be critical for financials and banking sector as it should mark the peak of NPA cycle. However, credit growth continues be very weak and earnings growth will be primarily driven by treasury gains. Currency headwinds to impact IT, Pharmaceuticals and Automobiles: For the IT sector, the quarter is likely to be subdued as cross currency impact on account of Dollar appreciation (against Euro, GBP and others) will impact revenue and earnings growth. Large Pharmaceutical players like Sun Pharma and Dr Reddy’s impact will be limited on account lower exposure to European market while mid‐sized Pharma players like Aurobindo, Glenmark and IPCA with significant European and EM exposure will see strong currency headwinds. Automobile companies will see domestic margins stabilizing but international business will be impacted by translational losses. Tata Motors subsidiary JLR will be impacted by weak volumes and realizations compounded by translational impact. Consumer, Telecom and Retail to deliver earnings but operational parameters will be the key focus: Telecom sector to deliver strong earnings growth helped by data pick up, voice volumes and operating leverage benefits. Consumer sector will see earnings accretion on gross margin expansion but operating metrics could be weaker than expectations. Retail earnings growth led by low base and end of season sale benefits but impact of E‐Commerce will also be witnessed in margins. Top result plays: Our top buy recommendations based on earnings are Asian Paints, Idea, L&T, Maruti, Dr Reddy and HDFC Bank. PAT growth distribution: Q4FY15

Source: PhillipCapital India Research Estimates

PhillipCapital India Research Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (+ 9122 6667 9947) [email protected] Anindya Bhowmik (+ 9122 6667 9764) [email protected]

73 46

28 15

10 9 9 7

1 (2)(2)

(2.7)(3)

(16)(25)(27)

(50)(108)

‐120 ‐100 ‐80 ‐60 ‐40 ‐20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Real EstateTelecom

RetailFMCGMediaMidcap

FinancialsPower

IT ServicesAutomobiles

PharmaPhillipCapital Universe

Agri InputsCapital Goods

Oil & GasMetalsCement

Infrastructure


Q4FY15 RESULTS PREVIEW

Earnings estimates _______________ Revenue _______________ _______________ EBITDA ________________ _________________ PAT _________________Sector (Rs bn) Q4FY15E Q3FY15 QoQ (%) Q4FY14 YoY (%) Q4FY15E Q3FY15 QoQ (%) Q4FY14 YoY (%) Q4FY15E Q3FY15 QoQ (%) Q4FY14 YoY (%)Automobiles 1,100 1,123 (2) 1,071 3 161 172 (6) 156 3 75 78 (3) 77 (2)Agri Inputs 138 169 (18) 140 (1) 16 19 (16) 16 2 7 9 (25) 7 (3)Capital Goods 588 440 34 579 2 71 41 74 76 (8) 44 16 172 53 (16)Cement 180 168 7 177 2 26 23 14 31 (14) 11 12 (6) 22 (50)Financials 570 540 6 508 12 470 488 (4) 433 9 196 172 14 180 9FMCG 342 338 1 314 9 78 75 4 67 17 55 56 (2) 48 15Infrastructure 86 83 3 82 5 27 25 6 22 21 (0) (0) 1 5 (108)IT Services 678 672 1 612 11 168 175 (4) 168 0 132 138 (4) 131 1Media 15 16 (6) 15 3 6 6 (10) 6 5 3 3 (8) 3 10Metals 953 960 (1) 1,095 (13) 166 177 (6) 197 (16) 46 41 11 63 (27)Oil & Gas 529 519 2 537 (2) 165 141 17 176 (6) 74 64 16 98 (25)Real Estate 34 33 2 36 (5) 13 12 11 7 82 5 3 53 3 73Retail 88 87 2 80 10 8 9 (3) 8 11 4 3 21 3 28Telecom 453 445 2 429 6 149 144 3 133 12 32 31 4 22 46Pharma 210 207 1 189 11 59 57 2 56 5 40 39 2 40 (2)Power 463 409 13 449 3 152 117 29 128 18 94 69 36 87 7Midcap 81 67 20 75 8 11 10 12 10 18 7 7 8 7 9PhillipCapital Univ. 6,509 6,277 3.7 6,387 1.9 1,746 1,693 3.1 1,689 3.3 825 741 11.3 847 (2.7)

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates Sectoral outlook Sector Key observation/ outlook Earnings playsAgri Inputs Seeds: Although an insignificant quarter, Rabi maize acreage fell

11% thus topline growth could be muted (‐) Monsanto India; (+) Kaveri Seeds

Fertilisers: Higher share of low margin P&K traded fertilisers, Urea vol's and profitability to de‐grow

(‐) Chambal Fert; (‐) Coromandel International

Cropchemicals: Unseasonal rains, lower acreage and thus sprays, intensifies competition

(+) PI Ind, CSM business to aid growth

Auto Domestic players margins to either improve or remain flat on favorable cost and better volume ex. 2Ws

Maruti Suzuki

Tata Motors's key subsidiary JLR margin to be impacted by weak volume and expected realized hedging losses

Currency translation impact for players with significant Euro exposure to be negative

PV and M&HCV recovery to remain strong, while segment dependent on rural like 2W and tractors to remain under pressure

Banking Weak credit growth to continue to keep pressure on NII growth, especially for PSU banks

HDFC Bank

Higher interest reversal and pressure on yields to keep NIMs under pressure

Asset quality to remain under pressure as regulatory forbearance on restructuring ends in Q4

Capital Goods Pick up in execution for T&D companies Alstom T&D Capitalization of large value orders like Champa ‐Kurukshetra PGCIL Lower losses in Hydro carbon business L&T Lower losses in European subsidiaries Crompton Greaves

Cement Only North‐Indian manufacturers likely to deliver +6% YoY volume growth

Shree Cement, JK Cement, JK Lakshmi

South players to deliver negative double digit YoY volume growth but EBITDA unlikely to fall significantly

India Cements, Dalmia Bharat

Large‐cap manufacturers volume growth to remain dismal, but cost savings likely to help cushioning operating performance

UltraTech Cement, Ambuja Cements

Improvement in realizations on YoY basis (especially for South India) will be the key to protect operating earnings

All South‐Indian cement manufacturers

Consumer Full impact of fall in Crude Prices will lead to gross margin expansions

The earnings this quarter will reflect the full impact of fall in crude prices. Significant gross margin expansion may be observed in Asian Paints, Berger Paints, HUL, Emami & most FMCG companies

Volumes have not yet revived fully Most companies are of the view that the volume growth numbers for this quarter may be in line with last few quarters and may not show a significant improvement.

Rural growth more subdued Companies with more exposure to Rural markets like ITC & HUL may see smaller improvement in performance compared to urban centric businesses like Marico & Dabur.

Stringent policy against cigarette consumption Governments’ anti smoking stance has led to increase in excise duties and VAT rates on cigarettes significantly. ITC may surprise negatively.



Sector Key observation/ outlook Earnings playsIT Services Cross currency impact of 200‐250 bps impacting dollar revenue

growth HCLT could surprise positively in constant currency growth

Margins and revenue growth to remain subdued Other income to play a major part in earnings growth Guidance by Infosys and Wipro to be keenly watched

Infrastructure Traffic growth across BOT projects IRB Infra, Ashoka Buildcon Traffic growth at ports Adani Ports & SEZ Pick‐up in execution activity in last quarter of the year NCC, KNR, J Kumar PLFs at coal and gas based power plants GMR, GVK

Media Ad revenue growth to remain tepid on account of (a) higher base due to election related spend (b) Marginal recovery in consumer sentiment

Subscription revenue to witness double digit growth for Sun TV primarily on account of higher analog revenue

Margins to remain stable or improve primarily on account of tight cost control and moderation in input cost

Metals Lower commodity prices to impact sector profitability Ferrous sector will be hardest hit with lower demand and

significantly lower prices Non Ferrous sector to be relatively better with volumes partly

compensating for lower prices

Oil & Gas Sector Upstream PSU‐ PSU's earnings contingent on net realization, we assume no subsidy burden. Await government clarity.

None ‐ Clarity on subsidy biggest factor to watch. Results unlikely to change outlook

Gas companies‐Weak performance expected by GAIL & IGL. Petronet & GSPL to report stable performance.

None ‐ Stock price correction over the quarter adequately captures the negative expected in results.

Refining companies‐ RIL and OMCs are likely to report strong operating numbers on account of strength in GRMs.RIL to report profits in excess of Rs63bn.

None ‐ Strength in GRMs is a temporary factor. Expect margins to correct going ahead as incremental refining capacity outpaces demand.

Pharmaceuticals Adverse currency fluctuations would be the key drag on earnings Dr Reddy's Lab; Sustained US performance and near exclusivity in gValcyte

Stable rupee against US dollar and key launches (Valcyte, Rapamune, Vancomycin etc) key growth driver in US

Divis Lab; Ramp up in new greenfield facility in DSN‐SEZ

Domestic business to see growth above IPM growth Cadila Healthcare; Healthy momentum in US sales

Real Estate Sluggish Sales as demand continues to be muted Phoenix has higher visible stream of earnings in form of rentals Revenue recognition delayed due to execution delays

Retail End of season sales to drive top line Trent will continue to deliver superior earnings on the back of its own label format

Margins would be flat Impact of ecommerce to have bearing on future outlook

Telecom Volumes will continue to remain strong in quarter for the India wireless services industry

Idea cellular aided to revenue market share gains and strong earnings growth could beat consensus estimates. Buy

Realizations will be under pressure on competitive intensity and termination rate cuts

Seasonally weaker quarter for Bharti Africa business which is impacted by currency headwinds

Domestic data growth will be strong in double digits QoQ. Commentary on tariff hikes will continue to be the focus area.

Source: PhillipCapital India Research



Indonomics Macro Data/Situation – Stable to sluggish: RBI has delivered 50bps repo rate cut so far, we expect another 50‐75bps reduction until March 2016 – higher than consensus expectation of 0‐25bps. Inflation trajectory is expected to hover around the current level (5.3‐5.5%) to slightly higher in the next 2‐3 months. WPI inflation expected to retain its deflationary trend. Manufacturing and Trade data remains stable. Feb CPI rose to 5.4% from 5.2% last month: CPI for Feb’15 stood ahead of expectations at 5.4% (PC estimate: 5.1% and Consensus estimate: 5.2%) vs. 5.2% last month. Index rose by 0.2% mom vs. 0.1% mom last month. On monthly (mom) basis, contraction of food inflation (underway for last few months) came to an end in Feb, inflation in Tobacco, clothing, and fuel, inched higher. Inflation in housing continued to rise at a sharp pace. Core inflation remained stable at 4.2%, up 0.4% mom ‐ A possible respite for RBI. Jan IIP at 2.6% ‐ ahead of expectation: IIP growth for Jan’15 came in at 2.6% (PC estimate: 0.4% and Consensus estimate: 0.7%) vs. a sharply revised 3.2% last month and 1.1% a year ago. Strong growth was seen in capital goods, other segments were muted. Robust growth was recorded in basic metals, rubber & plastic products, electrical machinery, motor vehicles and furniture. FYTD IIP growth is at 2.5% vs. 0% last year – in line with our expectation. Dec’14 IIP growth has been significantly revised upward from 1.7% to 3.2%, led by upward revision in manufacturing (from 2.1% to 3.8%) and mining (from ‐3.2% to ‐2.1%). Core sector and PMI‐ Sluggish: Core sector growth for Jan15 stood at 1.8% vs. 2.4% last month and 3.7% a year ago. Growth in Coal output fell to 1.7% from 7.5% last month (growth in coal output has been strong for last 9‐months at an average of 9%). Crude oil output growth remained negative at ‐2.3%, Natural gas ‐6.6%. Cement and Steel muted at 0.5% and 1.6%. Double‐digit growth of electricity production for last 9‐months (avg 10%) has fallen to 2.7% in Feb15, was at 3.7% in Jan15. Fertilizers and Refinery products output recorded reasonable growth at 7% and 4.7%, respectively. PMI for Feb15 also fell to 51.2 (Sep level) from 52.9 last month. In PMI, sluggishness is visible across the segments except for export orders. Domestic orders and demand weak. WPI Deflation progressed in Feb: WPI inflation for Feb’15 stood at ‐2.1% (PC estimate: ‐1%, Consensus estimate: ‐0.7%) vs. ‐0.4% last month and 5% last year. On sequential basis, WPI contracted by 1.4%, sixth consecutive month of decline. Food and fuel inflation drop was ahead of expectation. Contraction in manufacturing inflation continued ‐ reflecting positive impact of lower commodity prices and continuing demand weakness. Core inflation further fell to 0.1% from 0.9% last month and 3.8% a year ago. WPI deflation is expected to persist until Sep‐15. Although RBI gives significant weight to CPI before taking monetary policy decision, continuing WPI deflation (also led by weak demand) may not be fully ignored. Primary Article inflation (‐1.9% mom, 1.4% yoy), Fuel and Power (‐4.4% mom, ‐14.7% yoy), and Manufactured Products (‐0.3% mom, 0.3% yoy). December inflation has been revised downward to ‐0.5% from 0.1% reported earlier. FYTD inflation stands at 2.5% vs. 6% last year. April Monetary Policy: We assign a 60% probability of a 25bps repo rate cut in April monetary policy as against the consensus view of no rate cut. Our expectation is based on current inflation trajectory below RBI’s expectation, benign commodity prices, benign core inflation, food price rise due to unseasonal rainfall is not worryingly sharp, weak economic growth, and higher real interest rates. Risk to our estimate – RBI’s greater focus on achieving 4% CPI target by Jan’18.



Lower oil prices brought down trade deficit to $6.8bn: Trade deficit for Feb’15 further declined to US$ 6.8bn vs. US$ 8.3bn last month as well as last year. Sharper contraction was seen in both exports and imports, primarily led by Brent prices; Oil exports fell by 55% yoy and Oil imports by 56% yoy. Improvement recorded in non‐oil non‐gold imports (up 16.5%). Gold imports rose to US$ 2bn vs. US$ 1.6bn last month and US$ 1.3bn a year ago – at comfortable levels. Import cover inched up to 11‐months vs. 9.4 last month. Sharply lower trade deficit is expected to result in CAD surplus in Q4FY15. Monthly Macro Indicators Growth Rates (%) Feb‐14 Mar‐14 Apr‐14 May‐14 Jun‐14 Jul‐14 Aug‐14 Sep‐14 Oct‐14 Nov‐14 Dec‐14 Jan‐15 Feb‐15IIP ‐2.0 ‐0.5 3.7 5.6 4.3 0.9 0.5 2.6 ‐2.7 3.9 3.2 2.6 ‐PMI 52.5 51.3 51.3 51.4 51.5 53.0 52.4 51.0 51.6 53.3 54.5 52.9 51.2Core sector 4.5 2.5 4.2 2.3 7.3 2.7 5.8 1.9 6.3 6.7 2.4 1.8 ‐WPI 5.0 6.0 5.5 6.2 5.7 5.4 3.9 2.4 1.7 ‐0.2 ‐0.5 ‐0.4 ‐2.1CPI 8.0 8.3 8.6 8.3 7.5 8.0 7.7 7.7 6.5 5.5 4.4 5.0 5.2Money Supply 14.5 13.5 13.9 13.2 12.2 12.7 13.0 12.7 12.0 11.4 10.2 11.5 11.4Deposit 15.9 14.6 15.1 13.8 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.0 12.4 12.2 10.6 11.9 11.8Credit 14.4 14.3 14.1 12.8 13.1 13.1 10.6 9.4 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.1Exports ‐4.9 ‐3.2 5.3 12.4 10.2 7.3 2.4 2.7 ‐5.0 7.3 ‐3.8 ‐11.2 ‐Imports ‐17.5 ‐2.1 ‐15.0 ‐11.4 8.3 4.3 2.1 26.0 3.6 26.8 ‐4.8 ‐11.4 ‐Trade deficit (USD Bn) ‐8.3 ‐10.5 ‐10.1 ‐11.2 ‐11.8 ‐12.2 ‐10.8 ‐14.2 ‐13.4 ‐16.9 ‐9.4 ‐8.3 ‐Net FDI (USD Bn) ‐0.1 2.1 2.0 4.8 2.4 3.6 2.5 2.9 2.8 1.8 4.0 5.5 ‐FII (USD Bn) 1.5 5.4 ‐0.1 7.7 4.8 5.4 2.1 2.4 1.7 4.8 ‐0.4 6.6 ‐ECB (USD Bn) 4.3 3.6 3.2 1.5 1.9 3.7 0.5 3.2 2.8 3.5 0.6 2.6 ‐Dollar‐Rupee 62.2 61.0 60.4 59.3 60.2 60.1 60.9 61.8 61.4 62.0 63.0 61.9 61.8Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Bn) 294.4 303.7 309.9 312.4 315.8 320.6 318.6 314.2 315.9 316.3 319.7 327.9 338.1

Source: RBI, CSO, CGA, Ministry of Commerce, Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research Quarterly Balance of Payment Balance of Payment (USD Bn) Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15Exports 72.6 74.2 84.8 73.9 81.2 79.8 83.7 81.7 85.3 78.2Imports 120.4 132.6 130.4 124.4 114.5 112.9 114.3 116.4 123.8 117.1Trade deficit (47.8) (58.4) (45.6) ‐50.5 ‐33.3 ‐33.2 ‐30.7 ‐34.6 ‐38.6 ‐38.9Net Invisibles 26.7 26.6 27.5 28.7 28.1 29.1 29.3 26.8 28.5 30.5CAD (21.1) (31.8) (18.2) ‐21.8 ‐5.2 ‐4.1 ‐1.3 ‐7.9 ‐10.1 ‐8.3CAD (% of GDP) 5.1 6.5 3.5 4.9 1.2 0.8 0.3 1.7 2.1 1.6Capital Account 20.7 31.5 20.5 20.6 ‐4.8 23.8 9.2 19.8 18.7 23.1BoP (0.2) 0.8 2.7 ‐0.3 ‐10.4 19.1 7.1 11.2 6.9 13.1

Source: RBI, Ministry of Commerce, PhillipCapital India Research Quarterly GDP (New Methodology) (By Income) (YoY growth rate)

______2013‐14 ______ ______ 2014‐15 ______Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3

Agriculture 2.7 3.6 3.8 3.5 2.0 ‐0.4Industry 5.9 4.2 5.5 6.5 5.5 4.6Mining and Quarrying 0.8 4.5 4.2 5.1 2.4 2.9Manufacturing 7.2 3.8 5.9 6.3 5.6 4.2Electricity, gas and water supply 2.8 6.5 3.9 10.1 8.7 10.1Services 8.9 9.7 8.3 8.1 9.8 11.7Construction 1.5 3.5 3.8 5.1 7.2 1.7Trade, hotels, Transport & Communication 10.3 11.9 12.4 9.4 8.7 7.2Financing, Insurance, Real Estate & business services 7.7 11.9 5.7 11.9 13.8 15.9Community, social and personal services 14.4 6.9 9.1 1.9 6.0 20.0GVA at Basic prices 7.2 7.5 6.6 7.0 7.8 7.5

Source: CSO, PhillipCapital India Research



Annual Economic Indicators and Forecast Indicators Units FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17EReal GDP growth % 9.5 9.6 9.3 6.7 8.6 8.9 6.7 4.5 4.7 5.5 6.2 7.2 Agriculture % 5.1 4.2 5.8 0.1 0.8 8.6 5.0 1.4 4.7 2.0 3.5 3.5 Industry % 8.5 12.9 9.2 4.1 10.2 8.3 6.7 0.9 ‐0.1 3.0 4.5 6.0 Services % 11.1 10.1 10.3 9.4 10.0 9.2 7.1 6.2 6.0 6.9 7.2 8.3Real GDP Rs Bn 32531 35644 38966 41587 45161 49185 52475 54821 57418 60576 64332 68963Real GDP US$ Bn 733 787 967 908 953 1079 1096 1008 950 993 1038 1149Nominal GDP Rs Bn 36925 42937 49864 56301 64778 77841 90097 101133 113551 125424 141166 161235Nominal GDP US$ Bn 832 948 1237 1229 1367 1707 1881 1859 1878 2056 2277 2687Population Mn 1106 1122 1138 1154 1170 1186 1202 1219 1236 1254 1271 1302Per Capita Income US$ 753 845 1087 1065 1168 1439 1565 1525 1519 1640 1791 2065WPI (Average) % 4.5 6.6 4.7 8.1 3.8 9.6 8.7 7.4 6.0 2.1 2‐2.5 6.0‐7.0CPI (Average) 4.2 6.8 6.4 9.0 12.4 10.4 8.3 10.2 9.5 6.5 5.0 5.0Money Supply % 15.5 20.0 22.1 20.5 19.2 16.2 15.8 13.6 13.5 12.0 14.0 15.0CRR % 5.00 6.00 7.50 5.00 5.75 6.00 4.75 4.00 4.00 4.0 4.0 4.0Repo rate % 6.50 7.50 7.75 5.00 5.00 6.75 8.50 7.50 8.00 7.50 6.75‐7.0 6.75‐7Reverse repo rate % 5.50 6.00 6.00 3.50 3.50 5.75 7.50 6.50 7.00 6.50 5.75‐6.0 5.75‐6Bank Deposit growth % 24.0 23.8 22.4 19.9 17.2 15.9 13.5 14.4 14.6 12.0 13.0 14.0Bank Credit growth % 37.0 28.1 22.3 17.5 16.9 21.5 17.0 15.0 14.3 10.0 12.0 13.0Centre Fiscal Deficit Rs Bn 1464 1426 1437 3370 4140 3736 5160 5209 5245 5126 5555 5643Centre Fiscal Deficit % of GDP 4.0 3.3 2.9 6.0 6.4 4.8 5.7 5.2 4.8 4.1 3.9 3.5Gross Central Govt Borrowings Rs Bn 1310 1460 1681 2730 4510 4370 5098 5580 5641 6000 6000 6395Net Central Govt Borrowings Rs Bn 954 1104 1318 2336 3984 3254 4362 4674 4536 4603 4564 4627State Fiscal Deficit % of GDP 2.4 1.8 1.5 2.4 2.9 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.0 1.5Consolidted Fiscal Deficit % of GDP 6.4 5.1 4.4 8.4 9.3 6.9 7.6 7.5 7.0 6.6 5.9 5.0Exports US$ Bn 105.2 128.9 166.2 189.0 182.4 251.1 309.8 306.6 318.6 323.1 340.0 365.5YoY Growth % 23.4 22.6 28.9 13.7 ‐3.5 37.6 23.4 ‐1.0 3.9 1.4 5.3 7.5Imports US$ Bn 157.1 190.7 257.6 308.5 300.6 381.1 499.5 502.2 466.2 469.0 484.4 528.0YoY Growth % 32.1 21.4 35.1 19.7 ‐2.5 26.7 31.1 0.5 ‐7.2 0.6 3.3 9.0Trade Balance US$ Bn ‐51.9 ‐61.8 ‐91.5 ‐119.5 ‐118.2 ‐129.9 ‐189.8 ‐195.6 ‐147.6 ‐145.9 ‐144.4 ‐162.5Net Invisibles US$ Bn 42.0 52.2 75.7 91.6 80.0 84.6 111.6 107.5 115.2 111.0 116.9 122.7Current Account Deficit US$ Bn ‐9.9 ‐9.6 ‐15.7 ‐27.9 ‐38.2 ‐45.3 ‐78.2 ‐88.2 ‐32.4 ‐34.9 ‐27.5 ‐39.7CAD (% of GDP) % ‐1.2 ‐1.0 ‐1.3 ‐2.3 ‐2.8 ‐2.6 ‐4.2 ‐4.7 ‐1.7 ‐1.7 ‐1.2 ‐1.5Capital Account Balance US$ Bn 25.5 45.2 106.6 7.8 51.6 62.0 67.8 89.3 48.8 69.5 67.5 75.5Dollar‐Rupee (Average) 44.4 45.3 40.3 45.8 47.4 45.6 47.9 54.4 60.5 61.0 62.0 60.0

Source: RBI, CSO, CGA, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of commerce, Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research



Agri Inputs Earnings Estimates (Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights Chambal Fertiliser Revenues 9,779 28,246 ‐65.4% 14,421 ‐32.2% ‐ Urea plant under maintenance shutdown to impact topline and margins

‐ Shipping freight revival to support margins somewhat ‐ lower interest outgo arrest earnings fall

EBITDA 669 2,288 ‐70.8% 577 16.0%EBITDA margin (%) 6.8 8.1 4.0PAT 28 1,447 ‐98.1% 56 ‐51.0%EPS (Rs) 0.1 3.5 ‐98.1% 0.1 ‐51.0%Coromandel Intl. Revenues 22,421 29,621 ‐24.3% 21,840 2.7% ‐ Volumes to improve over next year

‐ Weak INR to dent margins ‐ Lower interest outgo to arrest earnings fall

EBITDA 1,649 2,252 ‐26.8% 1,792 ‐8.0%EBITDA margin (%) 7.4 7.6 8.2PAT 750 1,207 ‐37.9% 808 ‐7.2%EPS (Rs) 2.5 4.2 ‐40.4% 2.8 ‐10.8%Deepak Fertilisers Revenues 8,150 8,185 ‐0.4% 10,696 ‐23.8% ‐ Lower chemical realisation and no gas availability for fertilisers hurts

revenue/earnings EBITDA 650 498 30.5% 1,655 ‐60.7%EBITDA margin (%) 8.0 6.1 15.5PAT 218 12 1657.0% 914 ‐76.2%EPS (Rs) 2.4 0.1 1676.7% 10.4 ‐76.4%Kaveri Seeds Revenues 412 907 ‐54.6% 392 5.0% ‐ Lower maize acreage to result in subdued topline growth

‐ Margins to better over last year EBITDA 64 361 ‐82.2% 61 6.0%EBITDA margin (%) 15.6 39.8 15.4PAT 19 358 ‐94.7% 18 8.0%EPS (Rs) 0.3 5.2 ‐94.7% 0.3 7.8%Rallis India Revenues 3,414 3,895 ‐12.3% 3,315 3.0% ‐ Tepid growth largely helped by seeds

‐ Flat margins EBITDA 444 505 ‐12.0% 417 6.3%EBITDA margin (%) 13.0 13.0 12.6PAT 218 277 ‐21.5% 193 12.8%EPS (Rs) 1.1 1.4 ‐21.1% 1.0 13.4%PI Industries Revenues 4,350 5,049 ‐13.8% 3,627 19.9% ‐ Share of CSM to rise given lean Q4

‐ Higher share of high margin CSM ‐ Higher tax outgo to weigh on profits

EBITDA 696 941 ‐26.1% 519 34.0%EBITDA margin (%) 16.0 18.6 14.3PAT 563 597 ‐5.7% 458 22.9%EPS (Rs) 4.1 4.4 ‐5.7% 3.4 22.9%United Phosphorus Revenues 35,725 30,472 17.2% 33,388 7.0% ‐ Cross currency effects to weigh down revenue growth

‐ Higher share of low margin Latam ‐ Lower other income

EBITDA 6,431 5,746 11.9% 6,723 ‐4.4%EBITDA margin (%) 18.0 18.9 20.1PAT 3,480 2,493 39.6% 3,603 ‐3.4%EPS (Rs) 8.1 5.4 50.4% 8.8 ‐8.0%Tata Chemicals Revenues 38,345 48,205 ‐20.5% 36,950 3.8% ‐ Lower freight cost n lower fert revenues to pull down

‐ Absence of loss making units, reversion to the mean ‐ Lower interest outgo further supports

EBITDA 4,780 5,896 ‐18.9% 3,194 49.6%EBITDA margin (%) 12.5 12.2 8.6PAT 1,289 2,409 ‐46.5% 778 65.7%EPS (Rs) 5.1 9.4 ‐46.4% 3.1 65.7%Zuari Agrochemicals Revenues 15,000 14,127 6.2% 14,874 0.8% ‐ Volume resurgence and price growth

‐ Adhoc subsidy increase and energy savings ‐ Lower interest to supports further

EBITDA 717 730 ‐1.7% 876 ‐18.1%EBITDA margin (%) 4.8 5.2 5.9PAT 125 171 ‐27.0% 60 109.0%EPS (Rs) 3.0 4.1 ‐27.0% 1.4 109.0%

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research



Automobiles Earnings Estimates (Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights Maruti Suzuki Revenues 138,814 125,758 10% 121,014 15% ‐ Topline growth to be driven by volume growth

‐ Higher margins and revenue growth to drive EBITDA ‐ Favourable currency and better mix can surprise margins ‐ Profitability should improve meaningfully

EBITDA 19,446 16,626 17% 12,475 56%EBITDA margin (%) 14.0% 13.2% 10.3%PAT 11,132 8,722 28% 8,000 39%EPS (Rs) 36.8 28.9 28% 26.5 39%Apollo Tyres Revenues 32,080 31,048 3% 32,293 ‐1% EBITDA 5,133 4,905 5% 4,612 11%EBITDA margin (%) 16.0% 15.8% 14.3%PAT 2,738 2,632 4% 2,706 1%EPS (Rs) 5.4 5.2 4% 5.4 1%Bajaj Auto Revenues 47,459 56,572 ‐16% 49,323 ‐4% ‐ Sharp volume decline to impact revenue

‐ EBITDA margin to decline sequentially on lower 3W volumes EBITDA 8,804 11,478 ‐23% 9,314 ‐5%EBITDA margin (%) 18.6% 20.3% 18.9%PAT 7,060 7,823 ‐10% 7,626 ‐7%EPS (Rs) 24.4 27.0 ‐10% 26.4 ‐7%Hero MotoCorp Revenues 64,991 68,393 ‐5% 65,130 0% ‐ Topline to be muted on marginal drop in volume

‐ EBITDA margin should benefit from lack of one‐off promotion expenses EBITDA 8,397 8,218 2% 8,942 ‐6%EBITDA margin (%) 12.9% 12.0% 13.7%PAT 6,586 5,830 13% 5,544 19%EPS (Rs) 33.0 29.2 13% 27.8 19%Mahindra & Mahindra Revenues 88,178 95,828 ‐8% 110,007 ‐20% ‐ Sharp drop in tractor volume and degrowth in UV to led topline de‐growth

Negative operating leverage and lower topline to impact EBITDA ‐ EBITDA margin to remain under pressure on account of negative operating leverage

EBITDA 8,466 9,942 ‐15% 9,066 ‐7%EBITDA margin (%) 9.6% 10.4% 8.2%PAT 5,589 6,428 ‐13% 8,441 ‐34%EPS (Rs) 9.1 10.4 ‐13% 13.7 ‐34%Bharat Forge Revenues 12,101 11,978 1% 9,305 30% ‐ Higher tonnage and strong order book to drive revenue

‐ EBITDA margin partially impacted by Euro depreciation on European exports

EBITDA 3,478 3,623 ‐4% 2,303 51%EBITDA margin (%) 28.7% 30.2% 24.8%PAT 1,929 1,963 ‐2% 1,108 74%EPS (Rs) 8.3 8.4 ‐2% 4.8 74%Mahindra CIE Revenues 11,864 13,182 ‐10% ‐ QoQ revenue decline on account of translation impact of Euro

depreciation and M&M volume drop ‐ Margin to improve due to better European margins

EBITDA 1,068 1,108 ‐4% EBITDA margin (%) 9.0% 8.4% PAT 522 585 ‐11% EPS (Rs) 1.6 1.8 ‐11% Ashok Leyland Revenues 44,306 33,610 32% 30,768 44% ‐ Topline to be driven by ~36% M&HCV volume growth

‐ ~300bp improvement in margins to increase EBITDA ‐ Operating leverage and tight cost control to improve EBITDA margin ‐ Higher EBITDA and lower interest costs to improve PAT significantly

EBITDA 3,957 2,381 66% 1,839 115%EBITDA margin (%) 8.9% 7.1% 6.0%PAT 1,648 321 413% (127) ‐1398%EPS (Rs) 1.16 0.23 413% (0.09) ‐1398%Tata Motors Revenues 671,869 699,733 ‐4% 653,171 3% ‐ Lower JLR volume and translation impact of GBP depreciation against INR

‐ Expect JLR margin of 16.9% and domestic EBITDA margin to be about break‐even ‐ Lower JLR margin to impact PAT

EBITDA 103,783 114,857 ‐10% 107,764 ‐4%EBITDA margin (%) 15% 16% 16%PAT 38,729 44,347 ‐13% 43,269 ‐10%EPS (Rs) 12.0 13.8 ‐13% 13.4 ‐10%




Banking Earnings Estimates (Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights Andhra Bank Net Interest Income 12,347 12,591 ‐1.9% 9,498 30.0% ‐ NII to improve due to reversal of forgone interest on agri loan waiver

‐ Treasury gain to aid operating profit ‐ Asset quality to remain stale as slippages in infra and metals to get offset by recovery in agri loans.

Pre‐provision profit 8,617 9,232 ‐6.7% 8,497 1.4%PAT 2,067 2,017 2.5% 881 134.7%Net Interest Margin (%) 3.10 3.43 ‐0.33 2.65 0.45EPS (Rs) 3.5 3.4 2.5% 1.5 134.7%Axis Bank Net Interest Income 37,989 35,896 5.8% 31,658 20.0% ‐ NII growth to remain healthy backed by stable NIM and better growth in

retail loan book ‐Treasury gain and stable trend in retail fee income to support non‐interest income ‐Addition in stressed assets to remain within management guidance

Pre‐provision profit 38,563 33,146 16.3% 32,477 18.7%PAT 21,482 18,998 13.1% 18,423 16.6%Net Interest Margin (%) 3.92 3.93 ‐0.01 3.89 0.03EPS (Rs) 9.1 8.0 13.1% 7.8 15.9%Bank of Baroda Net Interest Income 33,743 32,861 2.7% 31,243 8.0% ‐ NII growth to remain weak owing to weak Domestic credit growth

‐ Incremental addition in stressed assets to remain high ‐ NIM to remain stable on a sequential basis

Pre‐provision profit 25,560 23,390 9.3% 25,796 ‐0.9%PAT 7,501 3,340 124.6% 11,573 ‐35.2%Net Interest Margin (%) 2.20 2.20 0 2.29 ‐0.09EPS (Rs) 17.4 7.8 124.6% 26.9 ‐35.2%Bank of India Net Interest Income 31,200 27,802 12.2% 30,473 2.4% ‐ NII to growth to remain flat owing to moderate growth in credit

‐ Higher treasury gain to support non‐interest income ‐ NPA provisions to remain high owing to higher NPA Stress

Pre‐provision profit 22,800 18,654 22.2% 19,961 14.2%PAT 5,800 1,734 234.5% 5,575 4.0%Net Interest Margin (%) 2.20 2.18 0.02 2.28 ‐0.08EPS (Rs) 9.0 2.7 234.5% 8.7 4.0%Canara Bank Net Interest Income 27,117 23,805 13.9% 25,343 7.0% ‐ NII growth to remain moderate led by ~9% growth in loan book

‐ Expect NIM to remain in the range onf 2.2‐2.25% ‐ Asset quality may surprise negatively

Pre‐provision profit 20,860 17,973 16.1% 18,812 10.9%PAT 7,360 6,560 12.2% 6,102 20.6%Net Interest Margin (%) 2.25 2.24 0.01 2.27 ‐0.02EPS (Rs) 0.2 14.2 ‐98.9% 13.2 ‐98.8%Corporation Bank Net Interest Income 10,780 10,290 4.8% 9,075 18.8% ‐ Credit to growth to remain weak in the range of

‐ Margins to improve by ‐5‐7 bps led by decline in cost of funds ‐ Slippage to remains elevated. No respite seen in Credit cost

Pre‐provision profit 8,310 72,654 ‐88.6% 6,366 30.5%PAT 1,410 14,721 ‐90.4% 416 239.2%Net Interest Margin (%) 2.00 2.09 ‐0.09 1.91 0.09EPS (Rs) 8.4 8.8 ‐4.2% 2.5 239.2%DCB Bank Net Interest Income 1,301 1,219 6.7% 1,000 30.0% ‐ NII growth to remain strong owing to robust growth in advances and

stable margin ‐ NIM to see and uptick owing to decline in cost of funds ‐ Asset quality to remain stable

Pre‐provision profit 723 684 5.7% 502 44.1%PAT 443 425 4.1% 391 13.3%Net Interest Margin (%) 3.68 3.70 ‐0.02 3.59 0.09EPS (Rs) 1.6 1.5 4.1% 1.6 0.7%HDFC Bank Net Interest Income 60,917 56,999 6.9% 49,526 23.0% ‐ NII growth to be driven by higher growth in retail loan book

‐ Margins to remain range bound in the range of 4.4‐4.5% ‐ Slippage rate to moderate further which will hold asset quality

Pre‐provision profit 47,838 47,786 0.1% 37,793 26.6%PAT 28,221 27,945 1.0% 23,265 21.3%Net Interest Margin (%) 4.50 4.40 0.1 4.40 0.10EPS (Rs) 11.7 11.6 1.0% 9.7 20.4%ICICI Bank Net Interest Income 50,318 48,117 4.6% 43,565 15.5% ‐ Credit road to be driven by retail loan book, corporate loan book to

remain subdued ‐ NIM to remain stable sequentially ‐ Asset quality to remain in stress as addition in restructured loans will be high

Pre‐provision profit 49,994 50,370 ‐0.7% 44,535 12.3%PAT 28,254 28,890 ‐2.2% 26,520 6.5%Net Interest Margin (%) 3.45 3.46 ‐0.01 3.35 0.10EPS (Rs) 24.4 5.0 389.0% 4.6 431.1%



(Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights Indian Bank Net Interest Income 11,639 11,050 5.3% 10,777 8.0% ‐ Credit growth to remain moderate at 8‐10% YoY

‐ Slippage rate likely to trend lower sequentially ‐ Margins to improve on shedding of high cost deposits and focus in high yielding loans

Pre‐provision profit 8,039 7,945 1.2% 7,034 14.3%PAT 3,039 2,775 9.5% 2,713 12.0%Net Interest Margin (%) 2.70 2.47 0.23 2.47 0.23EPS (Rs) 6.5 6.0 9.5% 5.8 12.0%Indusind Bank Net Interest Income 9,218 8,614 7.0% 7,812 18.0% ‐ Loan growth to remain in the range of 22‐24% aided by uptick in CV

financing and retail loans ‐ Margins to remain stable due to stable cost of funding ‐ Asset quality to remain stable

Pre‐provision profit 8,346 7,738 7.9% 7,191 16.1%PAT 4,902 4,472 9.6% 3,961 23.8%Net Interest Margin (%) 3.65 3.67 ‐0.02 3.75 ‐0.10EPS (Rs) 9.3 8.5 9.7% 7.5 23.1%Indian Overseas Bank Net Interest Income 1,382 1,358 1.8% 1,411 ‐2.0% ‐ Loan growth to remain below 10% owing to insufficient capital

‐ margin to remain under pressure owing to high interest reversals due to slippages ‐ Asset quality will continue to remain under pressure

Pre‐provision profit 7,924 7,273 9.0% 11,911 ‐33.5%PAT 2,124 (5,150) ‐141.2% 2,683 ‐20.8%Net Interest Margin (%) 2.15 2.05 0.1 2.22 ‐0.07EPS (Rs) 1.7 (4.2) ‐141.2% 2.2 ‐20.8%OBC Net Interest Income 13,349 12,975 2.9% 13,087 2.0% ‐ NII growth to remain flat due to weak off take in loan book

‐ treasury income to support non‐interest income ‐ Slippage to remains elevated. No respite seen in credit cost

Pre‐provision profit 10,349 10,148 2.0% 13,837 ‐25.2%PAT 1,239 196 533.3% 3,103 ‐60.1%Net Interest Margin (%) 2.65 2.69 ‐0.04 2.72 ‐0.07EPS (Rs) 4.1 0.7 533.3% 10.3 ‐60.1%Punjab National Bank Net Interest Income 43,219 42,331 2.1% 40,018 8.0% ‐ NII to remain weak owing to lackluster credit growth

‐ Higher trading gains to aid growth in other income ‐ Asset quality pressure to persist but Restructuring may decline sequentially

Pre‐provision profit 28,463 27,507 3.5% 31,734 ‐10.3%PAT 8,135 7,746 5.0% 8,063 0.9%Net Interest Margin (%) 3.20 3.21 ‐0.01 3.20 0.00EPS (Rs) 22.5 21.4 5.0% 22.3 0.9%State Bank of India Net Interest Income 140,641 137,766 2.1% 129,028 9.0% ‐ Credit growth will remain moderate at ~10% due to weak working capital

requirement ‐ Containment of slippages and reduction of cost of funds to improve margin on sequential basis ‐ Upward revision of fee income to reinforce non interest income ‐ Asset quality showing signs of recovery

Pre‐provision profit 115,088 92,945 23.8% 106,278 8.3%PAT 38,249 29,101 31.4% 30,407 25.8%Net Interest Margin (%) 3.12 3.12 0 3.17 ‐0.05EPS (Rs)

51.2 39.0 31.4% 40.7 25.8%Union Bank Net Interest Income 21,959 21,213 3.5% 20,522 7.0% ‐ Weak NII growth led by subdued credit growth of 9%

‐ NIM expected to remain flat on a sequential basis ‐ Slippages to remain at higher levels

Pre‐provision profit 15,729 14,654 7.3% 13,198 19.2%PAT 4,843 3,024 60.1% 5,789 ‐16.3%Net Interest Margin (%) 2.50 2.50 0 2.55 ‐0.05EPS (Rs) 7.6 4.8 60.1% 9.2 ‐17.1%HDFC Limited Net Interest Income 25,654 20,679 24.1% 22,605 13.5% ‐ Advances expected to grow by 15% YoY

‐ NIM to decline by 10 bps sequentially to 3.9% ‐ Asset quality likely to remain stable

Pre‐provision profit 25,444 21,095 20.6% 23,831 6.8%PAT 17,664 14,255 23.9% 17,231 2.5%Net Interest Margin (%) 3.90 3.93 ‐0.03 4.10 ‐0.20EPS (Rs) 11.3 9.1 24.2% 11.0 2.0%Shriram Transport Fin Net Interest Income 11,375 10,524 8.1% 9,124 24.7 ‐ 22% growth in loan book and improvement in NIMs to drive 24.7% growth

in NII ‐ Operating profit growth to trend inline with top line growth ‐ With higher provisioning PAT growth to be relatively moderate to 21.6%

Pre‐provision profit 8,837 7,973 10.8% 6,900 28.1PAT 3,588 3,125 14.8% 2,950 21.6Net Interest Margin (%) 7.9 7.5 0.43 7.4 0.56EPS (Rs) 15.8 13.8 14.8% 13.0 21.6LIC Housing Finance Net Interest Income 6,344 5,486 15.7% 5,331 19.0% ‐ Credit to show improving trend due to healthy sanction in retail and pick

up in builder loans book ‐ Margins to pick up due to decline in funding cost and increase in share of developers loan ‐ Asset quality may see improvement owing to recovery in developer loan portfolio

Pre‐provision profit 5,892 5,283 11.5% 4,993 18.0%PAT 3,843 3,443 11.6% 3,700 3.8%Net Interest Margin (%) 2.40 2.20 0.2 2.40 0.00EPS (Rs)

7.6 6.8 11.6% 7.3 3.8%



(Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights SKS Microfinance Net Interest Income 1,172 963 21.6% 710 65.0% ‐ Credit growth to remain strong owing to healthy growth in disbursals

‐ NIM could see improvement owing to reduction in cost of funds ‐ Asset quality to remain healthy

Pre‐provision profit 609 431 41.1% 290 110.0%PAT 580 412 40.9% 275 110.9%Net Interest Margin (%) 13.00 10.51 2.5 11.93 1.07EPS (Rs) 4.6 3.3 40.9% 2.5 80.8%Cholamandalam Fin. Net Interest Income 4,731 4,584 3.2% 3,847 23.0% ‐ Healthy growth in LAP book drive growth in NII

‐ With relatively lower opex increase, op growth to be slightly better ‐ Healthy top line growth and moderation in provision to drive growth in PAT ‐ Increased LAP book proportion to continue to drive margin improvement

Pre‐provision profit 2,758 2,684 2.7% 2,218 24.3%PAT 1,185 1,113 6.5% 907 30.6%Net Interest Margin (%) 7.8 7.6 0.20 7.1 0.63EPS (Rs) 1.8 1.7 6.5% 6.3 ‐70.9%Mah & Mah Finance Net Interest Income 7,866 7,388 6.5% 7,627 3.1% ‐ Lower disbursement growth amid weak demand in rural regions to keep

NII growth subdued ‐ increased branch rollouts to weigh on opex ‐ Slower top line growth and higher provisioning to keep earnings under pressure ‐ Weakening demand and higher interest reversal due to higher delinquencies to put pressure on NIMs

Pre‐provision profit 5,318 4,771 11.5% 5,439 ‐2.2%PAT 2,256 1,364 65.4% 3,107 ‐27.4%Net Interest Margin (%) 8.5 8.2 0.30 9.1 ‐0.62EPS (Rs)

4.0 2.4 65.7% 5.5 ‐27.3%Shriram City Union Fin Net Interest Income 5,848 5,672 3.1% 4,850 20.6% ‐ Healthy growth in advances and higher NIMs to drive 20% growth in NII

‐ Higher opex growth to keep operating growth at 14.3% ‐ With 21% increase in provisioning, PAT growth to remain lower at 8%yoy

Pre‐provision profit 3,579 3,373 6.1% 3,130 14.3%PAT 1,594 1,429 11.5% 1,474 8.1%Net Interest Margin (%) 13.9 13.4 0.48 13.2 0.66EPS (Rs) 24.2 21.7 11.5% 24.9 ‐2.8%




Capital Goods & Engineering Earnings Estimates (Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights ABB India Revenues 18,857 22,049 ‐14% 18,100 4% ‐ Sales to grow 11% yoy and orderflow to remain weak

‐ Margin expansion to lead to higher PAT EBITDA 1,348 1,575 ‐14% 1,190 13%EBITDA margin (%) 7.2% 7.1% 6.6%PAT 699 952 ‐27% 627 11%EPS (Rs) 3 4 ‐27% 3 11%Alstom T&D Revenues 14,573 7,629 91% 13,082 11% ‐ Expect strong ordering inflow to continue

‐ Revenues to grow 11% driven by better execution ‐ Expect better margins sequentially ‐ Higher gross margins to lead to 23% growth in PAT

EBITDA 1,790 374 379% 1,438 25%EBITDA margin (%) 12% 5% 11%PAT 973 26 3658% 791 23%EPS (Rs) 4 0 3658% 3 23%Alstom India Revenues 8,540 3,878 120% 9,364 ‐9% ‐ Revenue growth expected to remain weak on weak execution

‐ Weak order inflow to impact margins EBITDA 1,332 190 600% 1,346 ‐1%EBITDA margin (%) 16% 5% 14%PAT 953 149 541% 1,051 ‐9%EPS (Rs) 14 2 541% 16 ‐9%BHEL Revenues 115,332 60,784 90% 147,549 ‐22% ‐ Weak execution to lead to 22% decline in revenue

‐ Expect margins to improve driven by cost rationalisation ‐ PAT to improve qoq on lower base

EBITDA 20,102 1,742 1054% 24,568 ‐18%EBITDA margin (%) 17% 3% 17%PAT 17,379 2,126 717% 18,446 ‐6%EPS (Rs) 7.1 0.9 717% 7.6 ‐6%Crompton Greaves Revenues 37,838 33,332 14% 37,665 0% ‐ We expect revenues to grow flat as euro depreciation will result in impact

growth in overseas subsidiaries ‐ EBITDA margin to expand 110bps driven by cost rationalisation ‐ PAT to improve on lower losses in international subsidiaries

EBITDA 2,123 1,518 40% 1,881 13%EBITDA margin (%) 6% 5% 5%PAT 662 277 139% 638 4%EPS (Rs) 1 4 ‐76% 1 4%Cummins India Revenues 11,741 10,569 11% 9,716 21% ‐ We expect 15% yoy growth driven by price hike and exports

‐ Expect 100bps expansion in margins driven by reduction in raw material cost ‐ We expect PAT to grow 13% yoy

EBITDA 1,873 1,632 15% 1,709 10%EBITDA margin (%) 16% 15% 18%PAT 1,529 1,810 ‐16% 1,574 ‐3%EPS (Rs) 6 7 ‐16% 6 ‐3%Engineers India Revenues 4,440 3,983 11% 4,948 ‐10% ‐ We expect 10% decline in growth as weak order inflow will lead to

subdued growth in project segment ‐ Expect 300bps decline in margin ‐ Expect flat growth in profit

EBITDA 523 358 46% 727 ‐28%EBITDA margin (%) 12% 9% 15%PAT 1,062 600 77% 1,035 3%EPS (Rs) 3 2 77% 3 3%Larsen & Toubro Revenues 301,095 238,479 26% 267,494 13% ‐ We expect order inflow of Rs 481bn in Q415

‐ We expect revenue to grow 13% YoY lead by improvement in execution in infra segment ‐ Margins likely to remain weak due to lower subsidiaries profitability

EBITDA 35,515 28,900 23% 38,154 ‐7%EBITDA margin (%) 12% 12% 14%PAT 17,399 8,665 101% 25,463 ‐32%EPS (Rs) 19 9 101% 27 ‐32%KEC International Revenues 23,796 20,533 16% 21,759 9% ‐ 9% Revenue growth on execution of back log

‐ Margins to see continued improvement on lower proportion of low margin orders in back log ‐ PAT to improve on lower provisions

EBITDA 1,602 1,046 53% 1,514 6%EBITDA margin (%) 6.7% 5.1% 7.0%PAT 576 (240) ‐339% 344 68%EPS (Rs) 3 (1) ‐418% 1 122%



(Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights Siemens Revenues 27,109 21,408 27% 26,577 2% ‐ Revenue growth to remain in weak order inflow

‐ Margins to show improvement on cost rationalisation ‐ PAT to de grow in line with revenue de growth

EBITDA 1,627 1,438 13% 1,377 18%EBITDA margin (%) 6% 7% 5%PAT 1,213 1,061 14% 883 37%EPS (Rs) 3.4 3.0 14% 2.5 37%Thermax Revenues 15,142 11,466 32% 13,825 10% ‐ Order inflow expected to remain weak due to weak capex in steel sector

‐ Revenue to increase lead by execution of Reliance order ‐ Margins expected to remain flat YoY

EBITDA 1,514 1,314 15% 1,339 13%EBITDA margin (%) 10% 11% 10%PAT 1,105 763 45% 1,059 4%EPS (Rs) 9 6 45% 9 4%VA Tech Wabag Revenues 9,551 6,185 54% 8,966 7% ‐ Revenue growth to be up 7% driven by strong execution

‐ Lower cost and provisions to drive growth in PAT EBITDA 1,228 414 197% 1,063 16%EBITDA margin (%) 13% 7% 12%PAT 890 176 407% 705 26%EPS (Rs) 34 7 407% 27 25%Voltas Revenues 15,327 9,390 63% 14,628 5% ‐ Expect 5% revenue growth due to weak MEP business

‐ Margins to remain flat higher mix of UCP ‐ PAT to be flat YoY on lower margins

EBITDA 1,053 452 133% 1,054 0%EBITDA margin (%) 7% 5% 7%PAT 844 618 37% 836 1%EPS (Rs) 3 2 37% 3 1%NTPC Ltd Revenues 199,568 187,390 6% 209,381 ‐5% ‐ Commissioned 660MW Unit2 of Barh Stage II

‐ Expect incentive earnings to be weak under new tariff norms EBITDA 39,133 44,922 ‐13% 43,912 ‐11%EBITDA margin (%) 20% 24% 21%PAT 20,958 23,620 ‐11% 25,334 ‐17%EPS (Rs) 3 3 ‐11% 3 ‐17%PGCIL Revenues 49,946 43,524 15% 39,341 27% ‐ Expect capitalisation of Rs 74bn

‐ Expect 28% growth led by higher capitalisation EBITDA 42,792 37,684 14% 33,509 28%EBITDA margin (%) 86% 87% 85%PAT 15,304 12,583 22% 11,959 28%EPS (Rs) 3 2 22% 2 28%Coal India Revenues 213,310 177,629 20% 199,980 7% ‐ Revenues to up 7% led by volume growth

‐ Expect 500bps decline in EBITDA margin due to higher employee cost ‐ PAT to be up 15% on higher e‐auction realisation and higher volumes

EBITDA 69,873 34,800 101% 51,076 37%EBITDA margin (%) 33% 20% 26%PAT 57,492 32,625 76% 49,947 15%EPS (Rs) 9 5 76% 8 15%




Cement Earnings Estimates (Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights ACC Revenues 30,565 27,623 11% 29,671 3% ‐ Volume growth expected at ‐2% YoY

‐ Realisation seen up by marginal 1% QoQ EBITDA 2,689 1,823 48% 3,653 ‐26%EBITDA margin (%) 8.8% 6.6% 12.3%PAT 1,714 3,262 ‐47% 3,999 ‐57%EPS (Rs) 9.1 17.4 21.3Ambuja Cement Revenues 26,255 23,790 10% 26,398 ‐1% ‐ Volume growth expected at flat levels YoY

‐ Realisations seen flat sequentially with marginal cost savings EBITDA 4,120 3,324 24% 5,776 ‐29%EBITDA margin (%) 15.7% 14.0% 21.9%PAT 2,551 3,286 ‐22% 5,200 ‐51%EPS (Rs) 1.6 2.1 3.4UltraTech Cement Revenues 61,426 58,346 5% 58,319 5% ‐ Volume growth expected at ~3% YoY

‐ Realisations seen flat sequentially with marginal cost savings EBITDA 9,857 9,114 8% 11,430 ‐14%EBITDA margin (%) 16.0% 15.6% 19.6%PAT 5,030 4,000 26% 8,380 ‐40%EPS (Rs) 18.3 14.5 30.6Shree Cement Revenues 16,819 15,419 9% 16,600 1% ‐ Volume growth expected at 10% YoY

‐ Realisations expected to decline by 2% QoQ ‐ Power revenues and EBITDA expected to remain flattish

EBITDA 3,109 3,035 2% 4,261 ‐27%EBITDA margin (%) 18.5% 19.7% 25.7%PAT 803 945 ‐15% 2,968 ‐73%EPS (Rs) 23.1 27.1 85.2India Cement Revenues 10,030 10,359 ‐3% 10,801 ‐7% ‐ Volume growth expected at ‐20% YoY

‐ Realisations expected to remain flattish EBITDA 1,622 1,587 2% 742 119%EBITDA margin (%) 16.2% 15.3% 6.9%PAT (82) (117) ‐29% (306) ‐73%EPS (Rs) (0.3) (0.4) (1.0)Dalmia Bharat Ltd Revenues 7,809 7,842 0% 7,703 1% ‐ Volume growth expected at ‐12% YoY

‐ Realisations expected to be up marginally EBITDA 1,194 1,147 4% 531 125%EBITDA margin (%) 15.3% 14.6% 6.9%PAT 179 1 (52) ‐446%EPS (Rs) 2.2 0.0 (0.6)JK Cement Revenues 8,740 7,967 10% 8,274 6% ‐ Volume growth expected at 12% YoY; white cement volumes likely at flat

levels and putty expected to grow by 20% YoY ‐ Realisations expected to remain flattish in both North & South

EBITDA 1,177 987 19% 1,581 ‐26%EBITDA margin (%) 13.5% 12.4% 19.1%PAT 228 167 36% 764 ‐70%EPS (Rs) 3.3 2.4 10.9JK Lakshmi Cement Revenues 6,691 5,559 20% 8,014 ‐17% ‐ Volume growth expected at 6% YoY

‐ Realisations expected to remain flattish EBITDA 1,022 754 36% 985 4%EBITDA margin (%) 15.3% 13.6% 12.3%PAT 472 285 66% 380 24%EPS (Rs) 4.0 1.6 5.4OCL India Revenues 5,618 5,407 4% 5,364 5% ‐ Volume growth expected at 5% YoY

‐ Realisations expected to decline marginally EBITDA 863 836 3% 896 ‐4%EBITDA margin (%) 15.4% 15.5% 16.7%PAT 301 288 5% 416 ‐28%EPS (Rs) 5.3 5.1 7.3



(Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights HeidelbergCement Revenues 4,162 4,103 1% 3,951 5% ‐ Volume growth expected at 8% YoY

‐ Realisations expected to be up marginally EBITDA 610 530 15% 599 2%EBITDA margin (%) 14.7% 12.9% 15.2%PAT 104 (99) 479 ‐78%EPS (Rs) 0.5 (0.4) 2.1Mangalam Cement Revenues 2,263 2,076 9% 2,137 6% ‐ Volume growth expected at 14% YoY

‐ Realisations expected to be up marginally EBITDA 95 37 155% 240 ‐60%EBITDA margin (%) 4.2% 1.8% 11.2%PAT (36) (24) 78EPS (Rs) (1.3) (0.9) 2.9




Consumer Earnings Estimates (Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights ITC Revenues 90,885 88,002 3.3% 91,451 ‐0.6% ‐ We expect ITC to report flattish revenue growth driven by significant price

growth in Cigarettes and high decline in volume ‐ EBITDA growth will be driven by Gross Margin expansion on account of lower costs ‐ Earnings growth will be negative on account of higher tax rate

EBITDA 32,148 33,218 ‐3.2% 31,100 3.4%EBITDA margin (%) 35.4 37.7 34.0PAT 22,516 26,350 ‐14.6% 22,780 ‐1.2%EPS (Rs) 2.8 3.3 ‐14.6% 2.9 ‐1.7%Hindustan Unilever Revenues 77,182 75,792 1.8% 69,358 11.3% ‐ We expect HUL to report revenue growth driven by 7% volume and 4%

price growth ‐ EBIDTA growth will be driven by gross margin expansion and operating leverage ‐ Earnings growth will be will be in line with EBITDA growth

EBITDA 14,156 13,315 6.3% 10,776 31.4%EBITDA margin (%) 18.3 17.6 15.5PAT 10,633 9,550 11.3% 8,090 31.4%EPS (Rs) 4.9 4.4 11.3% 3.7 31.4%Dabur India Ltd Revenues 20,040 20,736 ‐3.4% 17,690 13.3% ‐ We expect Dabur revenue growth to be driven by 8% volume growth and

4% price growth ‐ EBITDA growth will be driven by Gross Margin expansion on account of lower costs ‐ Earnings growth will be in line with EBITDA growth

EBITDA 3,944 3,464 13.9% 2,901 36.0%EBITDA margin (%) 19.7 16.7 16.4PAT 3,184 2,828 12.6% 2,353 35.3%EPS (Rs) 1.8 1.6 12.6% 1.3 35.3%Godrej Cons. Products Revenues 21,618 22,258 ‐2.9% 19,240 12.4% ‐ We expect GCPL to report revenue growth to be driven equally volume

growth and price growth ‐ EBIDTA growth will be driven by gross margin expansion and operating leverage ‐ Earnings growth will be similar to EBITDA growth

EBITDA 3,928 3,886 1.1% 3,339 17.6%EBITDA margin (%) 18.2 17.5 17.4PAT 2,686 2,633 2.0% 2,344 14.6%EPS (Rs) 7.9 7.7 2.0% 6.9 14.6%Marico Industries Revenues 12,814 14,489 ‐11.6% 10,698 19.8% ‐ We expect Marico revenues to be higher on account of high price growth

primarily in Parachute Hair Oil. ‐ EBITDA growth will be higher due to gross margin expansion ‐ Earnings growth will be higher on account of lower tax rate

EBITDA 1,880 2,334 ‐19.5% 1,520 23.6%EBITDA margin (%) 14.7 16.1 14.2PAT 1,153 1,599 ‐27.9% 888 29.9%EPS (Rs) 1.8 2.5 ‐28.9% 1.4 29.9%Jubilant Foodworks Revenues 5,360 5,543 ‐3.3% 4,337 23.6% ‐ We expect revenues of Jubilant to be higher primarily on account of new

store sales growth ‐ EBIDTA growth will be driven by gross margin expansion and operating leverage ‐ Earnings growth will be slightly higher on account of lower tax rate

EBITDA 706 727 ‐2.8% 557 26.9%EBITDA margin (%) 13.2 13.1 12.8PAT 325 350 ‐7.2% 250 30.2%EPS (Rs) 5.0 5.3 ‐7.2% 3.8 30.2%Colgate Revenues 10,491 9,886 6.1% 9,206 14.0% ‐ We expect Colgate to report revenue growth driven by 7% volume growth

and 7% price growth ‐ EBIDTA growth will be driven by gross margin expansion and operating leverage ‐ Earnings growth will be higher on account of changes in other income

EBITDA 2,293 1,872 22.5% 1,952 17.5%EBITDA margin (%) 21.9 18.9 21.2PAT 1,604 1,309 22.6% 1,323 21.2%EPS (Rs) 11.8 9.6 22.6% 9.7 21.2%Nestle Revenues 25,539 25,161 1.5% 23,135 10.4% ‐ We expect Nestle to report revenue growth driven by 6% volume growth

and 2% price growth ‐ EBITDA growth will be driven by Gross Margin expansion on account of lower costs ‐ Earnings growth will be slightly higher on lower finance costs

EBITDA 5,555 5,538 0.3% 4,856 14.4%EBITDA margin (%) 21.8 22.0 21.0PAT 3,216 3,225 ‐0.3% 2,755 16.8%EPS (Rs) 33.4 33.4 ‐0.3% 28.6 16.8%Glaxo Smithkline Cons Revenues 12,059 9,752 23.7% 10,791 11.8% ‐ We expect GSK to report revenue growth driven by 3% volume growth

and 8.5% price growth ‐ EBITDA growth will be driven by moderation in Ad spends ‐ Earnings growth will be in line with EBITDA growth

EBITDA 2,409 686 251.3% 1,893 27.3%EBITDA margin (%) 20.0 7.0 17.5PAT 2,161 964 124.1% 1,717 25.8%EPS (Rs) 51.4 22.9 124.1% 40.8 25.8%



(Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights Britannia Revenues 18,379 18,343 0.2% 16,198 13.5% ‐ We expect Britannia to report revenue growth driven by 9% volume

growth and 4% price growth ‐ EBITDA growth will be driven by Gross Margin expansion on account of lower costs ‐ Earnings growth will be slightly higher on account of lower tax rate

EBITDA 2,010 1,942 3.5% 1,646 22.1%EBITDA margin (%) 10.9 10.6 10.2PAT 1,296 1,205 7.5% 915 41.6%EPS (Rs) 10.8 10.0 7.5% 7.7 41.1%Emami Revenues 5,215 6,923 ‐24.7% 4,457 17.0% ‐ We expect Emami to report revenue growth driven equally by volume and

price growth ‐ EBITDA will decline because of higher expected spends in Ad & Sales ‐ Earnings growth will be even lower on account of higher tax rate

EBITDA 1,095 2,115 ‐48.2% 1,180 ‐7.2%EBITDA margin (%) 21.0 30.6 26.5PAT 955 1,837 ‐48.0% 1,111 ‐14.1%EPS (Rs) 4.2 8.1 ‐48.0% 4.9 ‐14.1%Asian Paints Revenues 37,496 36,028 4.1% 32,664 14.8% ‐ We expect Asian Paints to report revenue growth driven by 13% volume

growth and 2% price growth ‐ EBIDTA growth will be driven by gross margin expansion and operating leverage ‐ Earnings growth will be in line with EBITDA growth

EBITDA 7,024 5,337 31.6% 4,444 58.0%EBITDA margin (%) 18.7 14.8 13.6PAT 4,743 3,682 28.8% 2,944 61.1%EPS (Rs) 4.9 3.8 28.8% 3.1 61.1%Bajaj Corp Revenues 2,175 2,054 5.9% 1,842 18.1% ‐ We expect Bajaj Corp to report revenue growth driven by 13% volume

growth and 4.5% price growth ‐ EBIDTA growth will be driven by gross margin expansion and operatingleverage ‐ Earnings growth will be higher due to higher other income

EBITDA 633 587 7.7% 524 20.7%EBITDA margin (%) 29.1 28.6 28.5PAT 647 536 20.7% 501 29.2%EPS (Rs) 4.4 3.6 20.7% 3.4 29.2%Agro Tech Foods Revenues 2,022 1,951 3.6% 1,872 8.0% ‐ Earnings growth will be led majorly by price growth

‐ EBITDA will see significant decline on account of rise in operational expenditures ‐ PAT decline will be lower than EBITDA decline due to lower effective tax rate

EBITDA 169 154 10.2% 203 ‐16.6%EBITDA margin (%) 8.4 7.9 10.9PAT 124 94 31.8% 130 ‐4.9%EPS (Rs) 5.1 3.9 31.8% 5.3 ‐4.9%Berger Paints Revenues 10,626 11,171 ‐4.9% 9,660 10.0% ‐ We expect Berger Paints to report revenue growth driven equally by

volume growth and price growth ‐ EBIDTA growth will be driven by gross margin expansion and operating leverage ‐ Earnings growth will be slightly higher on account of lower tax rate

EBITDA 1,444 1,491 ‐3.1% 1,060 36.2%EBITDA margin (%) 13.6 13.3 11.0PAT 795 821 ‐3.2% 553 43.6%EPS (Rs) 2.3 2.4 ‐3.2% 1.6 43.6%Apcotex Industries Revenues 1,056 846 24.8% 804 31.3% ‐ Earnings growth will be led majorly by volume growth

‐ EBIDTA growth will be driven by decline in costs due to operating leverage‐ PAT growth will be higher on account of total leverage

EBITDA 113 100 13.0% 67 69.7%EBITDA margin (%) 10.7 11.8 8.3PAT 72 61 18.7% 37 95.5%EPS (Rs) 6.9 5.8 18.7% 3.5 95.6%




IT Services Earnings Estimates (Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights Infosys Technologies US$ Revenues 2,214 2,218 ‐0.2% 2,092 5.82% ‐ We expect constant currency growth of 2.2% and cross‐currency impact

of 220bps ‐ Margins are expected to contract on account of lower realisations ‐ FY16 USD revenue growth guidance will be keenly watched

Revenues 137,919 137,960 0.0% 128,750 7.12%EBITDA 38,164 39,540 ‐3.5% 36,420 4.79%EBITDA margin (%) 27.7 28.7 28.3PAT 30,536 32,500 ‐6.0% 31,210 ‐2.16%EPS (Rs) 26.7 28.4 ‐6.0% 26.18 2.06%Tata Consultancy US$ Revenues 3,961 3,931 0.8% 3,503 13.06% ‐ We expect constant currency growth of 3.0% and cross currency impact

of 220 bps ‐ Other income is expected to be Rs 1.1 bn higher than 3Q on account of forex gain ‐ Commentary on client budgets will be the key to watch out.

Revenues 246,350.4 245,011 0.5% 215,511 14.31%EBITDA 68,375 70,531 ‐3.1% 66,534 2.77%EBITDA margin (%) 27.8 28.8 30.9PAT 54,327 54,441 ‐0.2% 52,967 2.57%EPS (Rs) 27.7 27.8 ‐0.2% 27.0 2.57%HCL Technologies US$ Revenues 1,504 1,491 0.9% 1,361 10.49% ‐ We expect constant currency growth of 3.8% and cross currency impact

of 280 bps ‐ EBITDA margins are expected to decline 80 bps, resulting from cross currency impact

Revenues 93,550 92,830 0.8% 83,490 12.05%EBITDA 22,596 23,190 ‐2.6% 22,320 1.24%EBITDA margin (%) 24.2 25.0 26.7PAT 17,962 19,160 ‐6.3% 16,232 10.66%EPS (Rs) 12.7 13.6 ‐6.2% 11.5 10.92%Wipro US$ Revenues 1,788 1,795 ‐0.4% 1,631 9.61% ‐ We expect IT services to grow in constant currency by 2.0% and cross

currency impact of ~250 bps. ‐ IT services revenue to come at midpoint of its guidance of 1‐3%.

Revenues 120,075 119,929 0.1% 116,535 3.04%EBITDA 26,074 27,680 ‐5.8% 28,552 ‐8.68%EBITDA margin (%) 21.7 23.1 24.5PAT 21,134 21,927 ‐3.6% 22,265 ‐5.08%EPS (Rs) 8.6 8.9 ‐3.6% 9.0 ‐5.32%Tech Mahindra US$ Revenues 991 924 7.3% 825 20.18% ‐ We expect flat constant currency organic growth, LCC acquisition to add

~USD 80‐90mn ‐ Margins impacted by wage inflation (180bps), cross currency(40bps) and acquisitions (25bps)

Revenues 61,670.1 57,517 7.2% 50,581 21.92%EBITDA 10,949 11,601 ‐5.6% 10,718 2.15%EBITDA margin (%) 17.8 20.2 21.2PAT 7,111 8,054 ‐11.7% 6,142 15.78%EPS (Rs) 7.5 8.4 ‐11.0% 7.6 ‐0.94%Persistent Systems US$ Revenues 80 80 0.4% 73 10.0% ‐ We expect flattish revenue on account of ramp down in one large client

‐ Margins to remain under pressure due to lower revenue and continued investment in R&D and Sales

Revenues 4,976 4,946 0.6% 4,467 11.4%EBITDA 931 995 ‐6.4% 1,207 ‐22.8%EBITDA margin (%) 18.7 20.1 27.0PAT 621 745 ‐16.6% 672 ‐7.6%EPS (Rs) 7.8 9.3 ‐16.6% 8.4 ‐7.7%KPIT Technologies US$ Revenues 126 126 0.0% 114 11.23% ‐ We expect flatish growth mainly on account of negative cross currency

impact ‐ Margins are expected to contract mainly due to currency impact and lower realisations

Revenues 7,835 7,798 0.5% 7,001 11.91%EBITDA 957 1,085 ‐11.8% 1,130 ‐15.26%EBITDA margin (%) 12.2 13.9 16.1PAT 537 653 ‐17.8% 613 ‐12.37%EPS (Rs) 2.9 3.5 ‐17.8% 3.3 ‐11.84%NIIT Technologies US$ Revenues 95 96 ‐0.7% 95 0.22% ‐ We expect constant currency growth of 1.0% and cross currency impact

of ~170bps ‐ Margins to be impacted due to provision of USD 10mn (disputed unbilled revenue)

Revenues 5,971 5,953 0.3% 5,885 1.46%EBITDA 10 862 ‐98.8% 891 ‐98.84%EBITDA margin (%) 0.2 14.5 15.1PAT ‐119 482 ‐124.7% 620 ‐119.17%EPS (Rs) (2.0) 8.0 ‐124.7% 10.2 ‐119.23%




Infrastructure Earnings Estimates (Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights Adani Ports & SEZ Revenues 11,348 9,537 19.0% 8,702 30.4% ‐ 11% YoY growth in cargo expected at Mundra ‐ inline with last quarter

‐ Higher SEZ Income expected in this quarter, leading to strong topline growth ‐ PAT to decline QoQ due to lower tax last quarter, down YoY due to higher interest expense

EBITDA 7,816 6,483 20.6% 5,713 36.8%EBITDA margin (%) 68.9% 68.0% 90 65.6% 323PAT 5,632 5,942 ‐5.2% 5,284 6.6%EPS (Rs) 2.72 2.87 ‐5.2% 2.55 6.6%GMR Infrastructure Revenues 25,368 22,254 14.0% 24,530 3.4% ‐ Muted topline growth with no new assets commencing operations

‐ Losses to widen YoY, due to higher interest and depreciation expense EBITDA 6,504 7,011 ‐7.2% 6,913 ‐5.9%EBITDA margin (%) 25.6% 31.5% ‐586 28.2% ‐254PAT (6,042) (6,383) 5.4% (395) ‐1428.6%EPS (Rs) (1.55) (1.64) 5.4% (0.10) ‐1428.6%GVK Power Revenues 7,180 7,919 ‐9.3% 6,944 3.4% ‐ Topline expected to remain along the same level as last quarter, with no

new asset commencing operations ‐ Power division is expected to continue reporting dismal performance, due to unavailability of gas ‐ Losses to remain flat YoY, as the incremental interest and depreciation at Mumbai and Bengalaru airports started from same quarter last year

EBITDA 2,266 2,423 ‐6.5% 1,592 42.4%EBITDA margin (%) 31.6% 30.6% 97 22.9% 864PAT (2,185) (2,092) ‐4.4% (2,355) 7.2%EPS (Rs) (1.38) (1.32) ‐4.4% (1.49) 7.2%

IRB Infrastructure Revenues 10,813 9,930 8.9% 9,180 17.8% ‐ Topline growth driven by traffic growth, tariff hike and pick‐up in EPC

execution ‐ Toll collection to report robust growth, driven by 18% tariff hike at Mumbai‐Pune and stablization of traffic at new projects ‐ Most of IRB's projects have shown robust traffic growth in last 3 quarters ‐sustainability will be keenly watched ‐ Consol margins to be higher on YoY basis, due to higher contribution from BOT segment

EBITDA 6,109 5,554 10.0% 4,420 38.2%EBITDA margin (%) 56.5% 55.9% 57 48.1% 835PAT 1,461 1,326 10.2% 1,092 33.7%EPS (Rs) 4.40 3.99 10.2% 3.29 33.7%

Ashoka Buildcon Revenues 5,338 4,550 17.3% 6,077 ‐12.2% ‐ Topline to decline YoY due to higher EPC revenues in same quarter last

year ‐ Robut traffic growth to partly mitigate the decline in EPC revenues ‐ PAT to report YoY decline, due to maintenance provision for Belgaum project

EBITDA 1,245 1,054 18.1% 1,277 ‐2.6%EBITDA margin (%) 23.3% 23.2% 16 21.0% 230PAT 17 13 35.4% 136 ‐87.2%EPS (Rs) 0.11 0.08 35.4% 0.86 ‐87.2%NCC Revenues 18,032 23,515 ‐23.3% 19,132 ‐5.8% ‐ Robust topline growth, driven by pick‐up in execution at Nelcast power

plant ‐ EBITDA margins to expand YoY, due to higher share of new orders, won at better margins ‐ PAT to decline YoY due to tax reversal last year same quarter

EBITDA 1,431 1,740 ‐17.8% 1,048 36.6%EBITDA margin (%) 7.9% 7.4% 53 5.5% 246PAT 134 420 ‐68.0% 321 ‐58.1%EPS (Rs) 0.24 0.76 ‐68.0% 1.25 ‐80.7%KNR Construction Revenues 2,561 2,136 19.9% 2,604 ‐1.7% ‐ Muted topline YoY growth due to depleted orderbook

‐ EBITDA margins to remain in the 16‐18% range ‐ PAT to decline YoY due to lower tax last year, same quarter

EBITDA 418 300 39.2% 372 12.3%EBITDA margin (%) 16.3% 14.1% 226 14.3% 203PAT 160 149 7.3% 280 ‐43.0%EPS (Rs) 5.68 5.29 7.3% 9.96 ‐43.0%J Kumar Infraprojects Revenues 4,958 3,034 63.4% 4,547 9.0% ‐ Topline growth to be driven by execution on DMRC project

‐ Margins expected to decline from the exceptionally high margins last quarter, up YoY ‐ Robust growth in earnings aided by YoY margin expansion

EBITDA 902 596 51.3% 729 23.7%EBITDA margin (%) 18.2% 19.7% ‐146 16.0% 216PAT 433 239 81.4% 313 38.5%EPS (Rs) 13.45 7.41 81.4% 11.26 19.4%




Media Earnings Estimates (Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights Jagran Prakashan Revenues 4,267 4,705 (9) 4,207 1 ‐ Ad revenue to grow by 5‐6% because of higher base (Government ad

spend was higher in Q4FY14 before election model code of conduct) ‐ Company is likely to meet its EBITDA guidance of Rs 4400mn

EBITDA 1,019 1,325 (23) 790 29EBITDA margin (%) 23.9 28.9 19.3PAT 567 666 (15) 551 3EPS (Rs) 1.8 2.1 (14.8) 1.7 2.7HT Media Revenues 5,769 6,055 (5) 5,438 6 ‐ Ad revenue for English business is expected to be flattish and for Hindi

business it is expected grow by 9‐10%. EBITDA 732 862 (15) 754 (3)EBITDA margin (%) 12.7 14.2 13.9PAT 555 640 (13) 348 59EPS (Rs) 2.4 2.8 (13.2) 1.5 60.1Sun TV Network Revenues 5,329 5,524 (4) 5,202 2 ‐ Ad revenue for the full year to be around 5% in FY15. Analog and DTH

subscription revenue to witness a robust growth of 15%+ in the current quarter ‐ Margins to remain stable on a Y‐o‐Y and Q‐o‐Q basis

EBITDA 4,077 4,281 (5) 4,000 2EBITDA margin (%) 76.5 77.5 76.9PAT 2,032 2,141 (5) 1,976 3EPS (Rs) 5.2 5.4 (5.1) 5.0 2.9




Metals Earnings Estimates (Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights JSW Steel Sales volumes (mn tonnes) 3.0 3.0 ‐0.6 3.1 ‐3.0 ‐ Import pressures will see volumes as well as prices declining

during the quarter ‐ Significant drop in export prices will see company report higher realisation fall compared to peers

Steel realisations (Rs / tonne) 35114 37364 ‐6.0 39532 ‐11.2Revenues 120521 129270 ‐6.8 140881 ‐14.5EBITDA 19659 22957 ‐14.4 25286 ‐22.3EBITDA margin (%) 16.3 17.8 17.9PAT 593 3289 ‐82.0 4828 ‐87.7EPS (Rs) 2.5 13.6 ‐82.0 20.0 ‐87.7SAIL Sales volumes (mn tonnes) 3.0 2.9 5.3 3.5 ‐14.3 ‐ ISP plant commissioning will help company report sequential

jump in volumes however yoy continues to be negative ‐ Higher pig iron sales from IISCO will help partly offset profit pressures

Steel realisations (Rs / tonne) 36767 38517 ‐4.5 38817 ‐5.3Revenues 113565 111072 2.2 135092 ‐15.9EBITDA 9557 12080 ‐20.9 12208 ‐21.7EBITDA margin (%) 8.4 10.9 9.0PAT 2798 5790 ‐51.7 4526 ‐38.2EPS (Rs) 0.7 1.4 ‐51.7 1.1 ‐38.2Tata Steel ‐ Standalone Sales volumes (mn tonnes) 2.2 2.1 5.0 2.4 ‐7.1 ‐ Lower external iron ore consumption will drive sequential

profitability more than offsetting lower steel prices ‐ Restart of ferro alloy operations will improve profitability from segment. Full quarter impact to be felt in Q1FY16

Steel realisations (Rs / tonne) 43690 45337 ‐3.6 46966 ‐7.0Revenues 102155 98207 4.0 120419 ‐15.2EBITDA 24479 19799 23.6 41088 ‐40.4EBITDA margin (%) 24.0 20.2 34.1PAT 12453 8807 41.4 19786 ‐37.1EPS (Rs) 12.8 9.1 41.4 20.4 ‐37.1Tata Steel ‐ Consolidated Europe volumes (mn tonnes) 3.7 3.3 10.7 4.1 ‐10.0 ‐ Europe OP/tn estimated at US$ 56 v/s US$ 49 (adjusted) in

Q3FY15 ‐ SEA continues to be under pressure due to Chinese imports

SEA volumes (mn tonnes) 0.7 0.8 ‐10.0 1.1 ‐32.7Europe realisations (US$ / tonne) 925 945 ‐2.1 969 ‐4.6SEA realisations (US$ / tonne) 531 571 ‐7.0 660 ‐19.6Revenues 350687 333238 5.2 420176 ‐16.5EBITDA 36997 30774 20.2 50111 ‐26.2EBITDA margin (%) 10.5 9.2 11.9PAT 6562 1571 317.7 10359 ‐36.7EPS (Rs) 6.8 1.6 317.7 10.7 ‐36.7JSPL ‐ Standalone Steel sales volumes (tonnes) 810921 801478 1.2 766272 5.8 ‐ Lower steel prices and higher iron ore costs (higher external

purchases) will impact profits ‐ Power generation to be strong supporting profitability

Pellet Sales volumes (tonnes) 136927 210000 ‐34.8 320000 ‐57.2Steel realisations (Rs / tonne) 37005 39005 ‐5.1 41985 ‐11.9Pellet realisations (Rs / tonne) 5800 7250 ‐20.0 6800 ‐14.7Revenues 33531 36201 ‐7.4 36602 ‐8.4EBITDA 8904 10259 ‐13.2 9715 ‐8.4EBITDA margin (%) 26.6 28.3 26.5PAT ‐1345 ‐6696 ‐79.9 4308 ‐131.2EPS (Rs) ‐1.5 ‐7.3 ‐79.9 4.7 ‐131.2JSPL ‐ Consolidated JPL ‐ generation (mn units) 2722 2699 0.8 1882 44.6 ‐ International operations will see lower profits due to decling

commodity prices ‐ Jindal Power adjusted profits to be lower qoq due to lower prices and higher interest ‐ Interest on debt taken for penalty payment will impact Q4FY15 profitability

JPL ‐ Power realisations (Rs / unit) 3.4 3.4 ‐1.4 3.2 5.2Revenues 50082 50933 ‐1.7 50644 ‐1.1EBITDA 13904 14248 ‐2.4 13137 5.8EBITDA margin (%) 27.8 28.0 25.9PAT 173 ‐16188 ‐101.1 4025 ‐95.7EPS (Rs) 0.2 ‐17.7 ‐101.1 4.4 ‐95.7



(Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights Hindalco Inds Aluminium volumes (tonnes) 228681 202200 13.1 186000 22.9 ‐ Lower commodity prices will impact profitability on

sequential basis ‐ Inventory de‐stocking in Aluminium will drive volumes ‐ Strong Tc/Rc will drive profits for Copper segment

Copper volumes (tonnes) 97800 95000 2.9 92000 6.3Aluminium Realisations ($ / tonne) 2754 2900 ‐5.0 2632 4.6Copper Realisations ($ / tonne) 7649 8447 ‐9.4 9538 ‐19.8Revenues 85692 86030 ‐0.4 84351 1.6EBITDA 8556 9233 ‐7.3 8441 1.4EBITDA margin (%) 10.0 10.7 10.0PAT 2969 3594 ‐17.4 2482 19.7EPS (Rs) 1.6 1.9 ‐17.4 1.6 ‐4.1NALCO Aluminium Sales (tonnes) 82306 82000 0.4 80014 2.9 ‐ Lower commodity prices will impact profitability on

sequential basis ‐ Higher volumes and lower costs will partly offset impact of lower prices

Alumina Sales (tonnes) 338250 280000 20.8 370489 ‐8.7Aluminium realisations (US$ / ton) 2316 2503 ‐7.4 2178 6.3Revenues 19585 19060 2.8 18382 6.5EBITDA 5066 5272 ‐3.9 3093 63.8EBITDA margin (%) 25.9 27.7 16.8PAT 3630 3545 2.4 1725 110.4EPS (Rs) 1.4 1.4 2.4 0.7 110.4Hindustan Zinc Integrated Zinc (tonnes) 212892 192000 10.9 179000 18.9 ‐ Higher mined metal output will lead to higher integrated

metal production ‐ Higher Royalty cost (post MMDR Ordinance) will impact profits ‐ Lower MTM gains will see other income decline sequentially impacting profits

Integrated Lead (tonnes) 32242 25000 29.0 29000 11.2Integrated Silver (kgs) 77000 70000 10.0 68000 13.2Zinc realisations (US$ / tonne) 2333 2502 ‐6.7 2279 2.4Lead realisations (US$ / tonne) 2052 2252 ‐8.9 2344 ‐12.5Silver realisations (Rs / tonne) 34125 33690 1.3 41209 ‐17.2Revenues 40242 38531 4.4 36427 10.5EBITDA 19800 20892 ‐5.2 17552 12.8EBITDA margin (%) 49.2 54.2 48.2PAT 21035 23794 ‐11.6 18812 11.8EPS (Rs) 5.0 5.6 ‐11.6 4.5 11.8Sesa Sterlite Revenues 173112 192189 ‐9.9 208944 ‐17.1 ‐ Lower commodity prices will impact profitability for the

quarter ‐ Power, Copper & Iron ore segments expected to perform better sequentially ‐ Oil segment will be the biggest drag on profits followed by Aluminium

EBITDA 52644 61466 ‐14.4 67642 ‐22.2EBITDA margin (%) 30.4 32.0 32.4PAT 8096 15875 ‐49.0 16216 ‐50.1EPS (Rs) 2.7 5.4 ‐49.0 5.5 ‐50.1




Midcaps Earnings Estimates (Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights Havells Ltd Revenues 14,136 12,474 13.3% 13,100 7.9% ‐ Muted topline growth, due to lower demand environment ‐ similar to last

quarter ‐ EBITDA margins expected to expand YoY, flat QoQ ‐ Sylvania topline and EBITDA margins expected to be muted again, as last two quarters

EBITDA 2,013 1,781 13.0% 1,683 19.6%EBITDA margin (%) 14.2% 14.3% ‐4 12.8% 139PAT 1,312 1,162 12.9% 1,369 ‐4.2%EPS (Rs) 2.10 1.86 12.9% 2.19 ‐4.2%Greenply industries Revenues 4,237 3,933 7.7% 5725 ‐26.0% ‐ Results are not comparable due to De‐merger laminates business EBITDA 552 525 5.1% 588 ‐6.2%EBITDA margin (%) 13.0% 13.3% 10.3%PAT 372 261 42.4% 368 1.0%EPS (Rs) 19.4 10.8 79.6% 15.2 27.6%Kajaria Ceramics Revenues 6645 5347 24.3% 5239 26.8% ‐ Led by capacity addition

‐ Margin improvement due to operating leverage and product mix EBITDA 1079 829 30.2% 840 28.5%EBITDA margin (%) 16.2% 15.5% 16.0%PAT 502 406 23.6% 421 19.2%EPS (Rs) 6 5.4 11.1% 5.6 7.1%HSIL Ltd Revenues 6737 5018 34.3% 6796 ‐0.9% ‐ Results not comparable as Garden polymer biz full was merged for the full

year in Q4FY14 EBITDA 631 943 ‐33.1% 1059 ‐40.4%EBITDA margin (%) 9.4% 18.8% 15.6%PAT 53 303 ‐82.5% 294 ‐82.0%EPS (Rs) 0.8 4.6 ‐82.0% 4.5 ‐81.6%Concor Revenues 15,692 14,518 8.1% 12,968 21.0% ‐ Expect volume growth of 9.7% YoY, Exim growth of 11% and domestic

business 4% ‐ Control on empty running and operating leverage to improve margins ‐ Increase in depreciation by ~Rs 450mn on YoY with change in policy.

EBITDA 3,855 3,669 5.1% 2,664 44.7%EBITDA margin (%) 24.6 25.3 20.5PAT 3,007 3,011 ‐0.1% 2,461 22.2%EPS (Rs) 15.4 15.4 ‐0.2% 12.6 22.1%Praj Inds. Revenues 3,323 2,193 51.5% 3,494 ‐4.9% ‐ Higher execution in emerging business and order book of Rs 10.5bn to

support revenue ‐ Expect to maintain margins on YOY basis ‐ Assumed tax rate of 24.1% vs 21% in 4QFY14

EBITDA 409 191 114.3% 431 ‐5.1%EBITDA margin (%) 12.3 8.7 12.3PAT 273 112 145.0% 303 ‐9.7%EPS (Rs) 1.5 0.6 145.0% 1.7 ‐9.7%Pennar Inds. Revenues 3,951 2,950 33.9% 3,080 28.3% ‐ Expect strong growth from systems and PEBS

‐ Maring recovery with operating leverage and growth in high margin business

EBITDA 351 256 36.9% 301 16.6%EBITDA margin (%) 8.9 8.7 9.8PAT 131 77 69.9% 74 76.3%EPS (Rs) 1.1 0.6 69.9% 0.6 77.0%




Oil & Gas Earnings Estimates (Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights Cairn India Revenues 27,528 35,041 ‐21.4% 50,489 ‐45.5% ‐ On account of flat production and lower crude oil prices, topline

registered a de‐growth QoQ ‐ EBITDA declines mirroring topline performance. ‐ PAT during the quarter expected to decline 64.3% QoQ

EBITDA 14,653 21,841 ‐32.9% 38,439 ‐61.9%EBITDA margin (%) 53.2 62.3 76.1PAT 4,825 13,496 ‐64.3% 30,354 ‐84.1%EPS (Rs) 2.6 7.2 ‐64.3% 16.2 ‐84.1%GAIL Revenues 148,382 149,338 ‐0.6% 144,643 2.6% ‐ Lower petchem and LPG & HC realisation drag sales offset by no subsidy

during the quarter. ‐ EBITDA flat QoQ despite no subsidy due to higher gas prices and improved margins in gas trading. ‐ PAT decline led by LPG segment and gross loss in petchem segment

EBITDA 9,470 9,501 ‐0.3% 13,370 ‐29.2%EBITDA margin (%) 6.4 6.4 9.2PAT 5,912 6,041 ‐2.1% 9,720 ‐39.2%EPS (Rs) 4.7 4.8 ‐2.1% 7.7 ‐39.2%GSPL Revenues 2,564 2,431 5.5% 2,304 11.3% ‐ Volume growth are likely to be improve on QoQ basis due to lower spot

prices. Wind power revenues will register a growth QoQ. ‐ We factor flat higher tariffs assuming zonal tariffs are implemented. ‐ PAT growth will be driven by higher volumes and wind power revenues.

EBITDA 2,224 2,033 9.4% 1,999 11.2%EBITDA margin (%) 86.7 83.6 86.8PAT 1,073 888 20.9% 850 26.3%EPS (Rs) 1.9 1.6 20.9% 1.5 26.3%Indraprastha gas Revenues 9,446 9,444 0.0% 8,672 8.9% ‐ Volumes growth is expected to be muted during the quarter. CNG

volumes 206mn kgs during the quarter. PNG at 80mmscm. ‐ Full impact of the gas price hike in the quarter and rupee depreciation impacted EBITDA ‐ PAT decline of 17.5% QoQ due to lower EBITDA/scm

EBITDA 1,680 1,920 ‐12.5% 2,084 ‐19.4%EBITDA margin (%) 17.8 20.3 24.0PAT 892 1,082 ‐17.5% 1,140 ‐21.7%EPS (Rs) 6.4 7.7 ‐17.5% 8.1 ‐21.7%Oil India Revenues 28,060 21,948 27.9% 18,252 53.7% ‐ We assume no subsidy during the quarter. Thus despite lower oil

production revenues witness significant increase in a quarter of declining oil price. ‐ EBITDA increase on assumption of higher net realisation. ‐ PAT increase led by higher net realisation. Await clarity on subsidy burden for the quarter.

EBITDA 13,449 6,519 106.3% 3,544 279.5%EBITDA margin (%) 47.9 29.7 19.4PAT 9,280 4,983 86.2% 5,656 64.1%EPS (Rs) 15.4 8.3 86.2% 9.4 64.1%

ONGC Revenues 220,857 189,245 16.7% 208,809 5.8% ‐ We assume no subsidy during the quarter. Thus despite lower oil

production revenues witness significant increase in a quarter of declining oil price. ‐ EBITDA increase on assumption of higher net realisation. ‐ PAT increase led by higher net realisation. Await clarity on subsidy burden for the quarter.


Petronet LNG Revenues 92,014 111,985 ‐17.8% 104,278 ‐11.8% ‐ Decline in spot LNG prices lower long term volumes leads to topline

decline on QoQ basis. ‐ EBITDA higher QoQ on account of higher regasification charges on annual escalation at Dahej ‐ PAT registers a growth of 1.7% QoQ on higher EBITDA

EBITDA 3,716 3,408 9.0% 3,868 ‐3.9%EBITDA margin (%) 4.04 3.04 3.71PAT 1,651 1,624 1.7% 1,693 ‐2.5%EPS (Rs) 2.2 2.2 1.7% 2.3 ‐2.5%




Pharmaceuticals Earnings Estimates (Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights Aurobindo Pharma Revenues 30,803 31,662 ‐2.7% 23,298 32.2% ‐ US sales to remain flat despite the high base effect of Cymbalta in Q4FY14.

However, the integration of European acquisition lead to 32% growth in consolidated sales to Rs 30.8bn. ‐ Led by high base effect of cymbalta and loss making European acquisition, margins to contract from 31.9% (highest ever) in Q4FY14 to 20.0%. ‐ Largely due to high base effect, the resultant core PAT is estimated to see 21.4% de‐growth to Rs 3.97bn.

EBITDA 6,153 6,122 0.5% 7,430 ‐17.2%EBITDA margin (%) 20.0 19.3 31.9PAT 3,970 3,988 ‐0.4% 5,051 ‐21.4%EPS (Rs) 13.6 13.7 ‐0.3% 17.3 ‐21.4%

Biocon Revenues 7,795 7,609 2.4% 7,230 7.8% ‐ Biocon is estimated to report muted sales growth of 7.8%, as the strong

over 20% growth in Syngene sales get neutralised by flat (3.2%) sales rise in biopharma. ‐ We estimate margin contraction of 240bps to 21.8% largely on account of higher R&D spend and supply issue of Fidoxamycin, resulting in 2.7% decline in EBITDA. ‐ Led by muted sales and higher R&D spend, we estimate 18% yoy decline in Adj PAT to Rs 963mn.

EBITDA 1,703 1,566 8.7% 1,750 ‐2.7%EBITDA margin (%) 21.8 20.6 24.2PAT 963 954 0.9% 1,173 ‐18.0%EPS (Rs) 4.8 4.8 0.9% 5.9 ‐18.0%

Cadila Healthcare Revenues 21,771 21,898 ‐0.6% 19,661 10.7% ‐ Cadila is estimated to deliver 11% sales growth primarily led by continued

healthy momentum in US sales (up 26.9% yoy). Otherwise domestic formulations to report muted growth of 9%.of ‐ Estimate 100bps expansion in margin to 19.8% resulting in 16.7% growth in EBITDA. ‐ With muted sales growth and higher tax incidence (18.5% v/s 12% in Q4FY14), the Adj. PAT sees 8.5% improvement yoy to Rs 2.81bn.

EBITDA 4,311 4,444 ‐3.0% 3,694 16.7%EBITDA margin (%) 19.8 20.3 18.8PAT 2,810 2,951 ‐4.8% 2,590 8.5%EPS (Rs) 13.7 14.4 ‐4.8% 12.7 8.5%

Divi's Laboratories Revenues 8,396 7,911 6.1% 7,406 13.4% ‐ Ramp up in its newly set up greenfield facility in DSN‐SEZ to help Divi's to

report 13.4% yoy sales growth to Rs 8.40bn. ‐ Margins to remain flat at 37.2%. Thus, the EBITDA to see 11.6% growth in Q4FY15. ‐ In line with higher sales and flat margins, the Adjusted PAT to report a growth of 10% to Rs 2.23bn.


Dr Reddy's Labs. Revenues 39,487 38,431 2.7% 34,809 13.4% ‐ Thanks to sustained US performance and near exclusivity in gvalcyte helps

Dr Reddy report 14% sales growth despite the adverse impact of sharpcorrection in Russian Rubles. ‐ Strong margin led by gvalcyte would more than compensate the adverse effect of Ruble. The margin would expand by 170bps yoy to 24.1% to , resulting 23.9% growth in EBITDA. ‐ With strong US sales and margin expansion, the Adj. PAT to grow 26.7% in Q4FY15.


Glenmark Pharma Revenues 17,734 17,013 4.2% 17,036 4.1% ‐ Glenmark to report moderate 4.1% sales growth mainly due to lack of any

big ticket product launch in US generics and adverse currency fluctuation in EU & emerging markets. ‐ While we expect 18% yoy sales growth in the domestic formulations, we see a muted performance (4% up) in US generics. ‐ Margin to contract by 130bps to 21.7% led by adverse currency fluctuations, resulting in 2% decline in EBITDA. ‐ With no major lever for sales and margin expansion, the Adj. PAT to remain flat at Rs 2.18bn.

EBITDA 3,848 3,717 3.5% 3,916 ‐1.7%EBITDA margin (%) 21.7 21.8 23.0PAT 2,178 2,056 5.9% 2,179 ‐0.1%EPS (Rs) 8.0 7.6 5.9% 8.0 ‐0.1%



(Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights Ipca Laboratories Revenues 6,515 7,407 ‐12.0% 7,496 ‐13.1% ‐ IPCA Labs. to report 13% decline in consolidated sales mainly due to 11%

decline in exports led by facility issues and low Institutional shipment to Africa region (only 20% shipment in quarter) despite a strong 16% growth in domestic formulations. ‐ Margins are estimated to decline sharply by 830bps to 16.3% led by facility issues , resulting in 42% decline in EBITDA. The Adj. PAT is estimated at Rs 486mn, down by 59%.

EBITDA 1,063 1,211 ‐12.3% 1,828 ‐41.9%EBITDA margin (%) 16.3 16.4 24.4PAT 486 598 ‐18.7% 1,176 ‐58.7%EPS (Rs) 3.8 4.7 ‐18.7% 9.3 ‐58.7%

Lupin Revenues 32,086 31,776 1.0% 31,205 2.8% ‐ Lupin is estimated to deliver muted 3% Y‐o‐Y revenue growth primarily led

by flat US generics sales and adverse currency fluctuation in EU, Japan &emerging markets growth in domestic sales. Currency fluctuation across EU, Japan and emerging markets. ‐ We estimate the margin to contract by 160bps to 26.5% due lack of any key launches in US and adverse currency fluctuation, resulting 3% decline in EBITDA to Rs 8.5bn. ‐ In line with muted sales growth and lower margins, the Adj. PAT is estimated to see 6.7% decline to Rs 5.15bn.

EBITDA 8,503 8,829 ‐3.7% 8,769 ‐3.0%EBITDA margin (%) 26.5 27.8 28.1PAT 5,153 5,893 ‐12.6% 5,530 ‐6.8%EPS (Rs) 11.5 13.1 ‐12.4% 12.3 ‐6.7%

Sun Pharma Revenues 45,158 42,953 5.1% 40,586 11.3% ‐ Sun Pharma to report 11% as the strong 21% sales growth in domestic

formulations get neutralised by muted 5% rise in US sales. ‐ Margins to remain flat at 45.0% as there are no exclusive launches and the resultant EBITDA is expected to improve 12.8% on yoy basis. ‐ However, led by higher tax incidence (of 10% v/s 6.4% in Q4FY14) the Adj. PAT to remain flat at Rs 15.77bn in Q4FY15.

EBITDA 20,306 19,283 5.3% 18,008 12.8%EBITDA margin (%) 45.0 44.9 44.4PAT 15,775 14,251 10.7% 15,873 ‐0.6%EPS (Rs) 7.6 6.9 10.8% 7.7 ‐0.6%




Real Estate Earnings Estimates (Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights DLF Revenues 20300 19567 3.7% 19695 3.1% ‐ Revenue growth remain weak on account of no new major launch was

announced ‐ Operating margins to remain under pressure on seasonally poor execution

EBITDA 8768 7951 10.3% 3629 141.6%EBITDA margin (%) 43.2% 40.6% 18.4%PAT 2762 1321 109.1% 2197 25.7%EPS (Rs) 1.5 0.7 114.3% 1.2 25.0%Unitech Ltd Revenues 6401 7046 ‐9.2% 10333 ‐38.1% ‐ Volume de‐growth because of no new launches of projects EBITDA 755 510 48.0% 536 40.9%EBITDA margin (%) NM 7.2% 5.2%PAT 575 433 32.8% ‐516 ‐211.4%EPS (Rs) 0.3 0.2 32.8% NM NMOberoi Realty Revenues 2647 2171 21.9% 2206 20.0% ‐ Revenue growth to pick up as the Exquisite project is ready to deliver

‐ Margins to improve in the subsequent quarters mainly on account of higher proportion of non‐residential mix in revenue

EBITDA 1324 1266 4.6% 1255 5.5%EBITDA margin (%) 50.0% 58.3% 56.9%PAT 691 793 ‐12.9% 771 ‐10.4%EPS (Rs) 2.1 2.4 ‐12.5% 2.4 ‐12.5%Phoenix Mills Revenues 4671 4608 1.4% 3487 34.0% ‐ Expected to report healthy revenue growth on account of increase in

average rentals for HSP from ~235/Sqft to ~245/sqft. ‐ Margins to largely remain same

EBITDA 2268 2130 6.5% 1792 26.6%EBITDA margin (%) 48.6% 46.2% 51.4%PAT 540 430 25.6% 190 184.2%EPS (Rs) 3.7 3 23.3% 1.1 236.4%




Retail Earnings Estimates (Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights Bata India Revenues 5549 5372 3.3% 4954 12.0% ‐ Topline growth due to lower base in prev year and some recovery in sales

disrupted due to IT systems purgation in Q4FY15 ‐ EBITDA margins to suffer on the back of higher overheads ‐ PAT growth impacted by lower margins

EBITDA 711 614 15.8% 688 3.3%EBITDA margin (%) 12.8% 11.4% 13.9%PAT 418 350 19.4% 379 10.3%EPS (Rs) 6.5 5.4 20.4% 5.9 10.2%Raymond Revenues 14891 13826 7.7% 12489 19.2% ‐ Led by textiles, garmenting and branded apparel

‐ Margins will be impacted by higher share of shirting fabrics ‐ Profit growth is high due to exceptional loss in Q4FY14

EBITDA 1404 1428 ‐1.7% 1228 14.3%EBITDA margin (%) 9.4% 10.3% 9.8%PAT 308 561 ‐45.1% 81 280.2%EPS (Rs) 5.0 9.1 ‐45.2% 1.3 284.6%Future Retail Revenues 26251 26547 ‐1.1% 23451 11.9% ‐ Topline growth driven by sale season

‐ PAT growth primarily due savings from interest cost post Rs15 bn rights issue made in Q4FY15

EBITDA 2733 3087 ‐11.5% 2408 13.5%EBITDA margin (%) 10.4% 11.6% 10.3%PAT 485 53 814.0% 16 2896.0%EPS (Rs) 1.2 0.2 478.3% 0.1 1634.8%Shoppers Stop Revenues 8939 8140 9.8% 7996 12% ‐ Topline growth to be led by extended end of season sale

‐ Margins remain flat due to higher portion of discounted sales ‐ PAT growth led by topline growth

EBITDA 431 536 ‐19.6% 379 14%EBITDA margin (%) 4.8% 6.6% 4.7%PAT 106 138 ‐22.9% 81 31%EPS (Rs) 1.4 1.7 ‐15.2% 1.0 43%Trent Revenues 3058 3464 ‐11.7% 3118 ‐1.9% ‐ Topline impacted by winding down of Landmark format

‐ YoY Margin improvement continues to be driven by Westside ‐ PAT lower due to lower other income

EBITDA 103 266 ‐61.3% ‐42 ‐345.2%EBITDA margin (%) 3.4% 7.7% ‐1.3%PAT 56 160 ‐65.1% 250 ‐77.7%EPS (Rs) NM 4.8 NM 7.5 NMTitan Company Revenues 29670 29225 1.5% 28034 5.8% ‐ Topline growth limited to jewelry division & others whereas watch division

will remain flat due to a high base ‐ Margins to remain flat due to lower contribution from Watches Profitability will be aided by hedging gains to be booked during the quarter and higher studded share

EBITDA 3047 2758 10.5% 2966 2.7%EBITDA margin (%) 10.3% 9.4% 10.6%PAT 2457 1907 28.8% 2195 11.9%EPS (Rs) 2.8 2.2 27.3% 2.3 21.7%




Telecom Earnings Estimates (Rs mn) Mar‐15E Dec‐14 QoQ (%) Mar‐14 YoY (%) Result Update highlights Bharti Airtel Revenues 235,178 232,281 1.2 222,605 5.6 ‐ Domestic revenue to grow at reasonable pace aided by voice and data

volumes ‐ Africa to remain sluggish in a seasonally weak quarter impacted by currency headwinds ‐ Consolidated margins to be flattish but domestic margins will expand Earnings growth helped by low base effect

EBITDA 78,519 77,857 0.9 73,066 7.5EBITDA margin (%) 33.4 33.5 32.8PAT 14,767 14,365 2.8 9,616 53.6EPS (Rs) 3.7 3.6 2.8 2.4 53.6

Idea Cellular Revenues 84,656 80,175 5.6 70,438 20.2 ‐ Strong voice and data volumes to help revenue market share gains

‐ Sharp EBIDTA growth on data revenue growth and operating leverage gains ‐ Margins to see sharp expansion ‐ Earnings aided by operating leverage gains notwithstanding sharp increase in depreciation expenses

EBITDA 30,592 27,526 11.1 22,302 37.2EBITDA margin (%) 36 34 32PAT 8,689 7,671 13.3 5,898 47.3EPS (Rs) 2.5 2.2 13.3 1.7 47.3

Bharti Infratel Revenues 29,888 29,488 1.4 27,899 7.1 ‐ Revenue growth to slower as energy reimbursements will be lower on

account of cut in diesel prices ‐ Estimate rental revenue growth of 8.6% yoy ‐ Margins to expand on account of lower energy costs and operating leverage gains ‐ Earnings to grow in‐line with EBIDTA

EBITDA 13,003 12,731 2.1 11,526 12.8EBITDA margin (%) 44 43 41PAT 5,302 5,069 4.6 4,724 12.2EPS (Rs) 1.5 1.4 4.6 1.3 12.2

Tata Communications Revenues 48,497 49,145 (1.3) 51,553 ‐5.9 ‐ Seasonally weaker quarter for voice and data. Revenues could decline

marginally QoQ ‐ EBIDTA to be impacted by sluggish revenue growth ‐ Margins impacted marginally but likely to expand yoy ‐ Earnings helped by low base effect

EBITDA 7,707 8,010 (3.8) 7,504 2.7EBITDA margin (%) 16 16 15PAT 925 1,085 (14.8) (32)EPS (Rs) 3.2 3.8 (14.8) (0.1)Reliance Comm Revenues 54,894 54,350 1.0 56,708 ‐3.2 ‐ Revenue growth to be marginal

‐ EBIDTA growth helped by cost structure management ‐ Earnings to decline on higher interest expenses

EBITDA 18,691 18,170 2.9 18,516 0.9EBITDA margin (%) 34 33 33PAT 2,077 2,340 (11.2) 1,478 40.5EPS (Rs) 0.6 0.7 (11.2) 0.4 40.5




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INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Q4FY15 Results...

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