Input Requirement Estimations

Estimating Input Requirements using FADN Data

Stephan Pfaffenzeller, NUI, Galway

Objective

• To Estimate Intput Requirement Coefficients for Each CAPRI Activity for insertion into the CAPRI database.

Data

• FADN DATA from 1990-1999

• AT - Austria - 2451 farms

• BL - Belgium, 2601 farms

• DE - Germany, 15110 farms --> price data from ‘91-’99

• DK - Denmark, 6625 farms

• EL - Greece, 11877 farms --> price data from ‘95-’99

• FI - Finland, 1324 farms

• IR - Ireland, 3409 farms --> no price data prior to 1995

Data

• FADN DATA from 1990-1999

• IT - Italy, 57264 farms

• PT - Portugal, 6379 farms

• SE - Sweden, 1191 farms

• UK - United Kingdom, 6668 farms

• ES - Spain, 22609 farms

• NL - Netherlands

• FR - France

Variables

• I: CAPRI INPUTS• L: CAPRI LEVELS (hect./head)• Y: CAPRI YIELDS (tonnes p/h etc.)• O: CAPRI OUTPUTS (tonnes, litres etc.)

• 11 Input Variables• 53 Level Variables and 53 Output/Yield Variables

in Full Model

Model (for Any One Input)

• i is the farm i.d., t the year, L are Relevant Level Values

itiL LitLt tit euXI

Basic specification

Model (for Any One Input)

• i is the farm i.d., t the year, L are Relevant Level Values and O are Output Values

O itiOitOL LitLt tit euXXI

Alternative specification I

Model (for Any One Input)

• i is the farm i.d., t the year, L are Relevant Level Values and Y are Yield Values

Y itiYitYL LitLt tit euXXI

Alternative specification II

Choice of Estimator

• SUR eliminated (not feasible – problems last summer with SUR estimation)

• Choice between OLS, FE and RE for each model

• Preliminary Tests revealed FE was far superior: decided to be consistent

Results

• Generally good (pending final evaluation of specifications)

• Problems with Negative coefficient estimates in some cases

• Fitted values need to be reconciled with EAA

Negative Coefficients

• These problems are mainly with the OTHER categories of activities/inputs (OFRU, OCRO, OANI etc.).

• The chosen solution is to use the average coefficient from the relevant activity category (e.g. the Fruit Average if OFRU is negative)

Selected Results

Level Coefficient Estimates

L estimates for selected Crop activity levels:

NL SE EL PT

swhe 584.13* -62.00 336.17* 315.43*

barl 501.75 69.57 372.24* 161.80*

oats 433.46 40.99 247.51* 91.43*

rye 1623.70* -37.47 272.94* 69.41*

Level Coefficient Estimates

L estimates for selected animal activity levels:

NL SE EL PT

dcow 1229.45* 1520.40* 493.30* 1118.36*

hens 6.74* 4.44* 7.71* 4.91*

shgm 93.00 6.20 21.02* 40.96*