Innovative and Engineered Portfolio Solutions
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Transcript of Innovative and Engineered Portfolio Solutions
Discovering important drivers of growth, productivity, and risk.
Innovative and Engineered Portfolio Solutions
Summit Creek Capital, LLC
Overview:Summit Creek Capital, LLC (SCC) is an independent asset and wealth management firm specializing in custom, goal-specific investment advisory services. SCC offers individuals and institutions personalized service that includes proprietary research and engineered investment solutions reflecting specific investment ambitions.
SCC consistently balances the critical relationship between individual objectives and appropriate risk management. To that end SCC is aligned with CONCERT Global, Inc. and Parametric to provide a full spectrum of asset and wealth management services.
OuR DIffERENCE: SCC combines intellectual independence with fiduciary responsibility to find success in the basics—transparency, adaptability and integrity.
SCC delivers exceptional investment resources, operational support and management efficiency—without the bureaucracy of a large firm.
Our independent Advisors have access to a vast array of solutions and styles without the pressure to market in-house products.
You have unfettered access to your information and to your portfolio managers—for clear, measurable and understandable value.
SCC advisors are held accountable to a strict code of ethics and expectations.
If impact investing is important to you, SCC can offer investment choices that positively and proactively do good while still earning a return.
SCC’s proprietary research engine aggregates and synthesizes a diverse base of brokerage reports, financial news, industry and sector specific sites, independent economic and investment research, and user-level data.
www.summitcreekcapital.com
Our ApprOAch: Our Tailored Investment Approach Analyzes:
The unique nature of your goals and risk profile.
SCC takes the time to understand your financial and individual situation. Your asset allocation and risk profile are evaluated relative to relevant benchmarks by collectively analyzing your objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity and credit needs, family and estate issues, and service preferences.
Short-and long-term economic considerations.
We start by listening to understand your short-and-long-term financial requirements. Next, we create an investment strategy that best reflects these requirements utilizing our views of economic opportunity and market risk.
Risk-adjusted investment strategies.
SCC’s portfolio management practice combines investor-specific characteristics with assessed market opportunities. SCC develops, implements, and manages asset allocations focused on a suitable balance of risk management and investment opportunity.
An independent investment advisor, SCC is objective, innovative and agile. Portfolio management begins with a macro thesis validated by bottom-up fundamental analysis.
Our asset allocation strategies combine historical data and independent analysis of our expectations for future market behavior.
Thematic Investments
B Corps
Community Developmenet Initatives
Resources
EnergyMobility & Connectivity
Healthcare
Food & Water
Better BetaEngineered Investments
Non Publicly Traded Assets
Effi cient & Sustainable Investments
Thematic Investments
B Corps
Community Developmenet Initatives
Resources
EnergyMobility & Connectivity
Healthcare
Food & Water
Better BetaEngineered Investments
Non Publicly Traded Assets
Effi cient & Sustainable Investments
Efficiency
Sustainability
Mobility
Connectivity
+
Energy
Resources
FoodHealthcare
Demand
Depicted on this page are the themes that we see as important drivers of growth and productivity in the world economy for years to come. It is laid out so that each theme intersects with every other theme, in any combination. While there are compelling pure play stories in every theme, it is where these themes intersect that is intriguing. Using EffIcIEncy & SUSTAInABILITy and DEmAnD as lenses allows us to develop a clear picture of how companies relate to the evolving global marketplace.
The venn DiAgrAm
We outline the starting points for our process—we then seek to understand which companies represent the best opportunities for long term growth in these areas. Our search is not confined to just U.S. stocks but is global in focus.
In our company analysis we are looking for strong financials as well as business factors like: product innovation, competitive advantages, life cycle of the company and market value vs. intrinsic value.
The mAcrO TrenDs
The mAcrO TrenDsHealthcareIt’s understandable that when one’s income level increases, a higher and higher dollar amount will be spent on healthcare. After meeting basic needs of food and shelter, healthcare rapidly takes over as the most important expenditure a person will make in their lifetime.
Mobility + Connectivity The possibility for business, customers and clients to interact in a moble and always connected world creates opportunities at every level of society and economic development. mobility and connectivity allows for rapid decision making, accelerated product development, and a consumer base that can shop from anywhere at any time.
Energyfrom our food supply to our transportation network, from the way we communicate to the clothes we wear, energy is the common theme. As a theme, energy will continue to spawn innovation and to create investment opportunities.
FoodAs demand for protein products like meat and dairy increases, there is an even larger increase in demand for grains and arable land. In that light, feeding an ever larger global population is one of the themes that we believe will be more important in years to come.
Resources Humans have always been dependent on the Earth’s resources. There will be enormous opportunities in the way we account for and use our resources, especially as essential resources become scarce and new resources see increased demand.
Improving the use of vital resources will continue to drive innovation in efficiency. Bring together a global financial crisis and innovation to spawn efficiency. corporations and consumers learn to do more with less. companies invest in technology which utilize resources more efficiently. consumers use access to information to make better decisions for themselves.
D e m A n DA generational shift is occurring. consumers of the developed world are handing off the batons of consumption and credit expansion to the developing global middle class. The developed debtor nations are at the end of their expanding credit cycle; emerging creditor nations are in the early stages of their credit expansion cycle. The shift in demand from the debt-burdened developed consumer to the emerging middle class creates opportunities and risks for investors.
future drivers of economic value lie in selective sectors of the economy. Those sectors which increase the efficient use of resources, improve the livelihood and well being of humans, and develop sustainable business models likely will be rewarded over the long term. In a world facing the reality of ecological limits, sustainable business practices will create value for shareholders and communities at large.
s u s T A i n A b i l i T y
e f f i c i e n c y
Food + EnErgy + rEsourcEs:
LEd lights and temperature-controlled
rooms allow for agricultural products to be grown
in cities, reducing transportation costs
and water usage.
EnErgy + rEsourcEs + connEctivity:
smart grid: Monitoring and
Metering consumption of electricity,
fuel, and water to better balance
usage and define chokepoints.
EnErgy + connEctivity + rEsourcEs + MobiLity + Food: allowing farmers to turn off irrigation pumps during peak hours from a smartphone; reducing their energy bill and reducing peak power prices. (m2m communications)
MobiLity + connEctivity: making a 1 click purchase
from the ski lift of the book that was recommended by the guy sitting next to you
on the lift chair.
Food + rEsourcEs: center pivot irrigation increases water efficiency 40-90% versus flood irrigation, yet 90% of the world’s farmland is flood irrigated.
currently 25 percent of the world’s population lives in developed nations. The same 25 percent consumes 75 percent of global production of goods and services. As we witness the development of the global middle class, the level of global consumption is going to increase. The amount of cars, trucks, houses/apartments, appliances, household goods, and all other material representations of affluence is going to increase. can the world sustain this level of demand for goods? To what extent is society draining the resources of the planet that sustain life to meet the increasing demand for goods?
In an article from 2008, the new york Times wrote “[p]er capita consumption rates in china are still about 11 times below ours, but let’s suppose they rise to our level...china’s catching up alone would roughly double world consumption rates. Oil consumption would increase by 106 percent, for instance, and world metal consumption by 94 percent...If India as well as china were to catch up, world consumption rates would triple. If the whole developing world were suddenly to catch up, world rates would increase elevenfold. It would be as if the world population ballooned to 72 billion people (retaining present consumption rates).” WOW!!
from this hypothetical scenario it’s easy to see that current consumption patterns are unsustainable.
Sustainability in portfolio management comes down to a question of making investments or engaging in speculation. We fundamentally believe in making investments in long-term productive strategies by evaluating the return potential of an asset over its lifetime—rather than speculating, which is a short term psychological game. Sustainability in the investment decision making process applies not only to near and medium term cash flows and growth rates, but to the long term fundamentals that underpin a company’s business plan. These fundamentals include environmental stewardship, responsible resource management, and a responsibility to all stakeholders in the business (not just shareholders) including employees, communities and ecosystems impacted by business activities.
companies that embrace sustainability will be much better positioned to compete and endure in a world that has an inherently finite amount of resources.
Summit Creek Capital believes sustainable business models will be rewarded more than those business models that do not adapt in order to minimize their ecological and social impacts.
Efficiency Sustainability
New Economies = DEMAND
Africa & Asia’s
urban population is expected to double between
2000 & 2030***
of urban population growth will take place in the developing world***
BET WEEN
2007 & 2009 consumption in emerging m a r k e t s
SURPASSED U.S.consumpt ion FOR THE FIRST TIME*
100 Years agoless than 5% of the world’spopulation lived in Cities****
NOW50.5%
live in Cities
NOW50.5%
Women account for 85% of all consumer purchases - everything from autos to health care.**
Sources: *http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/company-news/u-s-consumer-no-longer-king-china-india-ascend-to-
throne/19411572/
**http://she-conomy.com/report/facts-on-women/
***www.worldwaterday2011.org
China overtook the U.S. as the largest buyer of
cars in 2009*
A key factor behind runaway consumer growth is the rise
of the middle class in emerging
countries*
****http://www.ethz.ch/about/publications/globe/archive/eth_
globe_10_02_futurecities_en.pdf
DemandBefore the global financial crisis gave rise to the concept of the new normal, there was an entire subset of buzzwords regarding the shifting economic paradigm. Acronyms, new words, and phrases such as ‘BRIc,’ ‘chindia,’ ‘emerging markets,’ developing economies,’ and ‘globalization’ were tossed around in the media with increasing frequency. The phenomena that these terms refer to is the economic growth of a group of countries that were once considered ‘third world.’ countries such as Brazil, china, India, Indonesia, malaysia, and Russia are experiencing growth rates that are far in excess of their larger counterparts in the ‘developed’ world.
Developed debtor nations are at the end of their expanding credit cycle; emerging creditor nations (see the countries listed previously) are in the early stages of their credit expansion cycle. The shift
in demand from the debt burdened, developed nation consumer to the emerged nation middle class creates opportunities and risks for investors. Prudently managed companies poised to benefit from the shift in demand are likely to reward investors. However, since the US imports most of its goods, the US economy is susceptible to global demand driving up prices of goods like food and energy.
Governmental budget deficits continue to fuel an expanding debt cycle to fill the gap in the budget, and policies to reduce entitlement spending will be difficult to institute.
A generational shift is occurring. consumers of the developed world are handing off the batons of consumption and debt expansion to the developing global middle class. Global demand for resources, goods, and services will increase the price of those same resources, goods, and services for US consumers.
10,000 BaBy Boomers reach
retirement age DaILy! & LIve Longer
IncreasIng DemanD for heaLthcare
x
=2
A m E R I C A N Sa r e t w i c e a s f a tasCANADIANS
1965
Today
1 in 50 1
in 6
MedicareParTiciPanTs
http://rwer.wordpress.com/
Just as baby boomers have affected the economic landscape in areas like as housing and durable goods spending, their aging will increase demand on our healthcare infrastructure.
B a B y B o o M e r s
Lo la
hello i’m yourr2D2 nurse:
$$$$
www.forahealthieramerica.com
49% Chronic diseases account for $3 out of every $4 spent on healthcare in the u.S.
of Americans suffer from one or more chronic diseases.
$$$$
10,000 BaBy Boomers reach
retirement age DaILy! & LIve Longer
IncreasIng DemanD for heaLthcare
dys·func·tion·al - Adjective/dis’fəNGkSHənl/1. Not operating normally or properly.
Although government mandates for the healthcare industry complicate the economic opportunity for investors, the need to improve drug efficacy and treatment modalities will continue to grow. One development we find fascinating is the fusion of what formerly were separate entities: drug development and diagnostics.
The healthcare industry itself is dysfunctional: fragmentation and a lack of transparency combined with misaligned incentives have driven prices higher and higher, especially in
the US. At the same time as demand for healthcare is increasing, the supply of healthcare is dropping. By 2020, the US is estimated to have a shortage of 200,000 doctors and nearly 1,000,000 nurses.
These imbalances create opportunity. from Star-Trek-esque solutions like tele-medicine to robotic nurses to simple solutions like streamlining insurance claims, efficient, progressive companies that address these systemic issues will see strong demand for the foreseeable future.
Healthcare
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
15,000per capita GDP
$ at
PPP
20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000source: www.medicalbillingandcoding.org
not only does the Us spend more than other
countries on healthcare, Look up—it’s
oFF THe cHarT
new stone Age
commences
new stone Age
bronzeAge
ironAge
Middle Ages
With more people, it means we’ll need to produce more food in the next 50 years than we’ve produced in the past 10,000 years combined.****
fivebillion
sixbillion
seven billion
eight billion
four billion
three billion
Mod
ern
Age
2-5 million years 7000 B.C. 6000 B.C. 5000 B.C. 4000 B.C. 3000 B.C. 2000 B.C. 1000 B.C. Ad 1000 A.D.
billi
ons
of P
eopl
e
two billion
Global Population Growth
Just 13.31% of global land area is considered arable*
The Black Death - The Plague
8 Billion = 8,000,000,000
the other three bric nations russia, india & china forecast notching up their growth by 26%, 21% and 26% through 2019**
brazil leads the pack, with growth of more than 40% through 2019.**
A g r i c u L t u r E
B R I C
Agriculture accounts for about 70% of all global water usage
2030 A.D.
global water requirements are likely to rise at least 40% more than the current accessible & reliable supply.***
by 2030
Human beings, when it comes down to it, have few basic necessities: food, water, shelter, and connectivity with others. Overlay life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, and necessities morph into luxuries. Producing enough food to feed an ever increasing population is one thing, producing enough quality food for an ever wealthier population is another.
As demand for protein like meat and dairy products increases, there is an exponentially larger increase in demand for grains and arable land. In that light, Agriculture is one of the themes that we believe will become more important in years to come.
sources: * Russian Wildfires Highlight the Global Population Growth-Food Supply Conundrum, by Matthew Weinschenk** http://www.investmentu.com/2010/June/the-worlds-biggest-food-fight.html*** Is Agriculture Depleting Our Water Supply On Purpose? by Tony D’Altorio, Investment U Research**** www.impactus.org
It took 123 years for the world to go from one billion people to two billion (in 1930).*
It took only 12 years to go from five billion to six billion people (in 1999).*
It’s expected that by 2050, the global population will hit nine billion.*
Food
Wind was the 2nd largest US energy resource added for the 5th straight year.
10 GW of wind power added in 2009, bringing total to ~35 GW www1.eere.energy.gov
oil
coal
Nat
ural
Gas
Nuc
lear
Hyd
ro
34.30%
30.46%
23.41%
5.36%6.47%
Global Energy Use by Source 2010 (estimate) www.gregor.us
Enou
gh so
lar energy falls on the earths surface in tw
enty minutes to meet th
e ne
ed
s of the European Union fo
r a ye
ar
www.ngpowereu.com
http://1bog.org/blog/a-world-without-oil/#more-12807
Energy
$22.50
$20.00
$17.50
$15.00
$12.50
$10.00
$7.50
$5.00
$2.50
$Brent Oil WTIC Oil Japan LNG N.A.NG Capp Coal PRB Coal
chart: www.gregor.us | data: eia, ferc and bloomberg
from mitosis to manufacturing, our world is shaped by energy. Oil has had a good run as the king of energy, and though its reign will continue for decades more, the realization that it is a finite resource with some severe social and environmental side effects has spurred research into alternatives. charlie munger once said “I never miss an opportunity to nOT install solar systems, because I think they’re going to get cheaper. I’m not worried about what comes after oil, because solutions are on the horizon.”
References to a paradigm shift have become common in mainstream media; have you heard of the United States referred to as the ‘Saudi Arabia of Wind’ or the ‘Saudi Arabia of natural Gas?’
from our food supply to our transportation network, from the way we communicate to the clothes we wear, energy is the common theme. And, as a theme, it will continue to drive investment and innovation.
of purchases are already made using a mobile device.
according to ATT, Aug 26,2010
2016
42%Bloomberg predicts an average of 42% annual growth in 2011-2016
$617 Billion
Growth of Mobile Payments will grow to 448 million users
*Bloomberg
New IndustryIn 2010, 3 million tablets were
connected to the mobile network, and each tablet generated 5 times more traffic than the average smartphone.
www.cisco.com
Workers in the Cloud* **1.19 B il l io n by 2 0 13
919.4 Million in 2008
Mobility +
1.6 Billion
TOTAL mObILE DEvICE SaLeS IN 2010
*Gartner
I’m sure there’s an app for that
?
World Wide
www.cisco.com
to Quadruple from 2009-2014Internet Traffic
Connectivity
47
SocIal MedIa
BIllIoninstant messages per day sent
Over the last few years we’ve reached a tipping point. The always-available computing power is a modern marvel; combined with connectivity, it is truly a game-changer. mobility and connectivity allows for rapid decision making, accelerated product development, and a consumer base that can shop from anywhere.
We believe connectivity combined with mobility will continue to accelerate future growth. The possibility for businesses and clients to interact in a connected world creates opportunities at every level of society and economic development.
Mobility +
copp
er in
mill
ions
of t
ons
year
1980 1990 2000 2008
u.s
.A.
rest
of t
he W
orld
u.s
.A.
u.s
.A.
u.s
.A.
rest
of t
he W
orld
rest
of t
he W
orld
rest
of t
he W
orld
> 2
2 > 2
< 2
>6
<8
>10
>11
copp
er in
mill
ions
of t
ons
year~
5
~ 2
~.2
5
~.0
5
1980 1990 2000 2008
China is the world’s leading user of refined copper. The booming economy in china contributed to a tripling of its annual refined copper consumption during the 8 years from 1999 to 2007.
COPPERconsumption
onE bArrEL oF oiL EquALs APProxiMAtELy
520 pounds of coal
725 pounds of oven dried wood
580 cubic feet of natural gas
19 gallons of motor gasoline
sources: * http://geology.com/usgs/uses-of-copper/** http://chinawatch.washingtonpost.com/2010/10/rare-earth-elements-undervalued.php*** http://www.circleofblue.org/****http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/30/business/global/30rare.html?_r=1
The average car contains nearly one mile of copper wire*
china produces &
exports 95 % of rare earth elements.****95%
Humans have always been dependent on the Earth’s resources. Some of those resource dependencies have developed as trade and commerce grew; coal and oil were not extremely useful before the industrial revolution. Others have never been excessively useful, but have captivated our attention for millenia (one shiny yellow metal, in particular, comes to mind). Still others, like water, have been taken for granted; regarded as free, misuse and overuse have been commonplace. Though mispricings are frequent, the laws of supply and demand hold strong for resources. There will be enormous opportunities in the way we account for and use our resources, especially as essential resource needs become scarce and new resources see increased demand. Resources have increasingly become viewed as national security issues: dependence on foreign oil has been cited as a funding source for terrorism; bottlenecks in the supply of rare earth elements threaten developed economies around the world.
Resources
Average water use per person per day (liters)***TOP 5
2. Australia
3. Italy
4. Japan
1. US
5. Mexico
575
493
386
374
366
Less than 2% of the Earth’s water supply is fresh water. Of that, only 1% is available for drinking water.***
prOcess:Summit creek capital believes assets should be invested as efficiently as possible. This obvious (but often ignored) strategy is an attempt to ensure that the reward for the risk taken is as high as possible, given individual investor circumstances. Through research of macroeconomic fundamentals and trends, Summit creek capital works to reduce the odds of being materially wrong in making asset allocation decisions. By evaluating current macroeconomic conditions, we adjust historical asset class returns to reflect our evaluation of expected returns and risks.
Summit creek capital builds individual portfolios based on our own research and the research of others, who offer insight and value to our process. Our process considers long term developing trends within a framework of the current macroeconomic environment. We look across asset classes to assess opportunity and risks for investors. Once we have a thorough understanding of an investor’s needs and goals, we will build portfolios incorporating those needs and goals and our expectation for future returns.
When we look at the global macroeconomic picture today, we can say with some confidence that we are moving into a world that is more connected and trending towards a broader balance of power. Developing countries like Brazil, china, and India account for greater and greater portions of global economic growth.
What is the application for those of us who live in America, earn dollars, and want to sustain wealth for the next generation? clients may already have exposure to domestic companies with international revenue, but may need to further diversify their assets to maintain purchasing power. Risk averse clients could benefit from Summit creek’s strategies to hedge against further declines in the US dollar without exposing their portfolio to excessive market risk.
After building client portfolios and allocating assets, Summit creek will monitor changing market conditions and evolving client risk tolerances and shift portfolio assets as conditions warrant. This dynamic approach is much better suited to deal with market volatility and opportunity than the traditional buy-and-hold strategy.
By determining economic trends that we hold to be reasonably assured in the global growth story, Summit creek’s team seeks to grow and preserve its clients’ wealth.
invesTmenT prOcess
invesTmenT AnAlysis:Summit creek’s investment process fuses top-down analysis, real-world perspectives, and company-level evaluation. far removed from a purely quantitative ‘black box’ program, the investment process at Summit creek invests in long term cycles to avoid being influenced by short term price outcomes.
funDAmenTAl meTric OverlAy:companies are screened to reduce the available list of investment options by using fundamental financial metrics such as free cash flow yield, percentage revenue generated outside the United States, price to earnings ratio, price to book value, debt to equity, dividend yield, earnings payout ratio, Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA), and historical and future implied Sharpe ratios.
TrenDs OverlAy:Defining trends where a regime shift is taking place creates opportunity for subjective overrides of expected returns.
selecTiOn:Once companies are screened, Summit creek capital researches individual companies to determine possible catalysts to drive investment return. Examples of investment catalysts are:
Product InnovationProduct DevelopmentBusiness model/competitive Advantagecompany Life cyclemarket Value vs. Intrinsic Value
mAnAgemenT:Summit creek capital manages client asset allocations for the long term. Asset allocations are determined by specific investor needs and goals. By utilizing financial models to assess when asset class risk and reward opportunities develop, we adjust client allocations to reflect market conditions.
Process, Analysis, Selection, Management
whAT exAcTly is A cerTifieD b cOrpOrATiOn?Certified B Corporations:
meet rigorous standards of social and environmental performance;
legally expand their corporate responsibilities to include consideration of stakeholder interests;
and build collective voice through the power of the unifying B corporation brand.
As of march 2013, there are over 700 certified B corporations from over 24 countries, 60 industries, representing a diverse multi-billion marketplace.
we Are prOuD TO be A cerTifieD b cOrpOrATiOn.B corporations are a new kind of company which uses the power of business to solve social and environmental problems.
more about the B corporation community can be found in the following link. http://www.bcorporation.net/community, where the focus and impact of B corps can be better understood.
certified B corporations meet higher standards of social and environmental performance, transparency, and accountability.
It’s like a LEED certification, but for a business, not just a building (or fair Trade certification, but for a business, not just a bag of coffee).
The performance standards are comprehensive and transparent. They measure a company’s impact on its employees, suppliers, community, and the environment.
Unlike traditional corporations, certified B corporations are legally required to consider the impact of their decisions on their employees, suppliers, community, consumers, and environment.
www.summitcreekcapital.com • 208.928.7500 • [email protected]
Summit creek capital weighs the environmental and social profiles of investing as we seek to create positive returns that extend beyond the bottom line.
Portfolios are constructed based on specific investor needs and goals and we constantly monitor and adjust allocations to reflect market dynamics.
Disclaimer: All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us for the purchase or sale of any securities.
Advisory services offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., an SEC Registered Investment Advisor.