Innovation and the Future of Music

#DarkerMusicTalks

Paul Papadimitriou.Darker Music Talks.June 2014.

Music was my first love

Innovation.Disruption.Technology.Future.

Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology.

Future.

This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered asa means of communication. The device is of no value.

—Western Union, 1876

Innovation.Disruption.Technology.

Future.

—Thomas Watson, IBM Chairman, 1943


I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.

Future.

—Ken Olson, President, Chairman & Founder, DEC, 1977


There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.

Future.

—Decca Recording Company on the Beatles, 1962


We don’t like their sound, and guitar music in on the way out.

Future.

The internet.


Flying cars?

Future.

You cannot connect the dots looking forward.You can only connect them looking them backwards.

—Steve Jobs, 2005


Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology.

Tokyo.New York.

Manila.

Shanghai.

Dubai.

Mumbai.Bangkok.

London.

Emerging reach.

1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2020

5000000000

2029000000

201900000101900000411000004400000

Emerging reach.

Facebook has > 1,000,000,000 users.

Emerging reach.

YouTube has > 1,000,000,000 uniques per month.

GOOG

MSFT

FB

YHOO

0 350 700 1050 1400

US World

Emerging markets.

Emerging markets.

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Share of world GDP (%, PPP basis)

Emerging computing.

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1M

10M

100M

1B

10B+

MAINFRAME

Devices/Users (MM, log scale)

MINICOMPUTER

PC

WEB

MOBILE

Emerging computing.

420,000,000 newspapers.1,000,000,000 cable TV subscriptions.1,500,000,000 PCs.1,800,000,000 active email accounts.2,000,000,000 TVs.2,200,000,000 credit cards.2,800,000,000 internet users.4,200,000,000 FM radio receivers.7,100,000,000 mobile phone subscriptions.

Emerging computing.

Emerging computing.

From 1,500,000,000 PCs to 3,000,000,000 smartphones.1,000,000,000 mobile-first and -only.75% of literate population to have a smartphone in 2017.

Emerging automation.

From ATMs to exoskeletons.Processes are being “codified”.

No flying cars? Self-driven cars.

Emerging entropy.15 million new books

Emerging entropy. 15 million new books

52 million new websites

books


48,000,000,000 hours on YouTube

Emerging entropy.

Emerging entropy.



182,500,000,000 tweets


182,500,000,000 tweets

400,000,000,000 photos

Emerging entropy.

Emerging entropy.

182,500,000,000 tweets

400,000,000,000 photos

1,000,000,000,000 Facebook Likes

400,000,000,000 photos


1,500,000,000,000 Google searches

Emerging entropy.

Emerging entropy.



9,000,000,000,000 SMS


9,000,000,000,000 SMS

55,000,000,000, 000 emails

Emerging entropy.

Emerging entropy.“The acceleration of information has reached a point!where it’s totally out of control and nobody can stop!it.”— Robert Anton Wilson

Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology. Dynamics.

Emerging deflation.

Technology disappears for two reasons.1. It gets into the background.

Emerging deflation.

Technology disappears for two reasons.1. It gets into the background.2. It gets disrupted.

Emerging deflation.

Technology disappears for two reasons.

Disruption is a deflation game.

1. It gets into the background.2. It gets disrupted.

Emerging deflation.

Emerging pace.

Emerging efficiency.

On-demand computing.On-demand human capital.

Emerging adoption.

1870 1900 2000

46 years

35 years

31 years

26 years

16 years

13 years7 years

2014

Elec

trici

ty

Tele

phon

e

Radi

o

Tele

visi

on

PC Cell

Web

Emerging overlaps.

Piling of value-added platform layers.

Emerging innovations are happening at an ever-accelerating rate.

Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology. Impact.

Emerging crash of price.

YouTube v. Television

Automation + Accelerated deflation + Accelerated adoption.

Crash of retail.

The “physical” framing is crashing under information.

Emerging crash of jobs.

Automation + Emerging Markets + Accelerated deflation.

Greece: 57% youth unemployment.Spain: 54% youth unemployment.

Unemployment and under-employment

47% of existing jobs likely be automated in next 20 years.16 years old today? 36 jobs.

The “job” framing is crashing under information.

Emerging crash of middle-class.

BSing of jobs.

Owners of capital capture the world’s income.

Real wages do not grow anymore.

Rise of 0.01%.Rise of luxury.

The “average” framing is crashing under information.

Emerging crash of growth.

GDP is flat.

The “traditional” framing is crashing under information.

Emerging crash of institutions.

Education doesn’t deliver the promise of a job.Government can’t provide for the people.

The “top-down” framing is crashing under information.

No jobs.No growth.No institutions.No future?

Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology. Maps.

Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology. Compass.

Emerging trust.

Networks enable openness, transparency and trust.We know institutions can’t provide anymore.We substitute for those institutions.We fight protectionism.We look for meaning in information.

Emerging jobs.

On-demand work.Rise of the freelancers.Rise of entrepreneurs.Rise of startups.Rise of nodal networks.

Emerging information.

Rise of information as a substitute for capital.Rise of information as a substitute for market research.Rise of information as pre-purchase mechanism.Rise of information as validation, ledger.

Rise of extreme flattening of means of production.

Emerging values.

Rise of ownership leveraging.Rise of ownership for access trade-off.Rise of experience over ownership.Rise of new marketplaces.

Emerging identities.

Tribal.Nomad.Singular.

Differentiated. Shared actualization.

Self-constructed. Nodal.Mobile. Augmented.

Rise of new identities.

Emerging reality.

The peer-to-peer age.The people-to-people age.

We all are creators.We all are producers.

Emerging values.

The internet is a city.The internet is a community.The internet is an experience.

The internet is an agora.

The internet is a home.

Emerging reality.

The world is flat(ter)

Emerging reality.

The world is flat(ter)The world is efficient(er)

Emerging reality.

The world is flat(ter)The world is efficient(er)The world is capitalist(er)

Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology. Music(er).

Emerging fallacy.

1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009

8-track LP/EP Tape CD

Emerging fallacy.

iTunes?-24% YoY spending per user.

Emerging fallacy.

Spotify?100 self-pressed CDs = 900 iTunes album downloads= 4,000,000 Spotify plays per month

Emerging fallacy.

Music was never owned.We value what we touch.

Emerging virtuality.

Music was never owned.We value what we touch.

Emerging reality.

Music was never owned. It can’t be devalued.We value what we touch.We value what has meaning.

Emerging reality.

Music was never owned. It can’t be devalued.We value what we touch.We value what has meaning.

Music always had meaning.

Emerging reality.

Music always changed the world.

Music always had meaning.

Emerging reality.

Music was never owned. It can’t be devalued.We value what touches us.

Emerging reality.



Emerging reality.



Music was always an identity.

Emerging reality.

Music was always an identity.

Emerging reality.

Music was never owned. It can’t be devalued.We value what we experience.

Emerging reality.

Music was never owned. It can’t be devalued.We value what we experience.Rise of luxury.Crash of ownership.Rise of experience.

Emerging reality.

Music was never owned. It can’t be devalued.We value what we experience.Rise of luxury.Crash of ownership.Rise of experience.Music was always an experience.

Music was always an experience.

Emerging reality.

The world is finally adopting the dynamics of music.

Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology. Musicpreneurs.

Emerging qualities.

The amount of progress computers will make in the next few yearsis equal to the progress they have made since the very beginning.We are not the computers anymore.

Emerging qualities.

Adaptability, lateral thinking, emotional intelligence & creativity.

We are the creators.

Emerging hope.

Average is over.

Emerging qualities.

Adaptability, lateral thinking, emotional intelligence & creativity.

Emerging qualities.

Adaptability, lateral thinking, emotional intelligence & creativity.Qualities of entrepreneurs. Qualities of musicians.

Emerging experiences.

Technology innovation is the main process by which luxury items become produced, packaged, and made affordable for everyone.


Luxury also means uniqueness.


Luxury means uniqueness.Luxury means scarcity.

Create scarcity.


Luxury means uniqueness.Luxury means scarcity.

Transform music into a “luxury” experience.Create scarcity.

Emerging unbundling.

Unbundle the product (content) from the experience.Repurposable content to achieve unique experiences.

Emerging experimentation.

Experiment experience.Experiment overlaps.Experiment with other entrepreneurs.

Emerging experimentation.

Experiment experience.Experiment overlaps.Experiment with other entrepreneurs.

Lady Gaga and Studio XO.

Emerging leverages.

Leverage reach of networks.Leverage information as capital.Leverage people-to-people marketplaces.Leverage communities.Leverage flat means of productions.

Emerging pace.

Experiment fast. Experiment often.Fail fast. Fail often.Rework fast. Rework often.

Emerging pace.

Do crazy shit.

Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology. Unlocked.

Emerging hope.

“Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I’m not sure about the former.”

— Albert Einstein

Emerging hope.

The internet is not going away.

Emerging hope.

“…the idea of the future being different from the present is so repugnantto our conventional modes of thought and behavior that we, most of us,

— John Manyard Keynesoffer a great resistance to acting on it in practice.”

Emerging hope.

The album was the framing.The EP was the framing.The jukebox was the framing.

Emerging hope.


Do not think inside the box.

Emerging hope.


Do not think inside the box.Do not think outside the box. There’s no box.

Hello. I’m Paul from Intelligenc #DarkerMusicTalksr.

Music was my first love…and it will be my last.

I’m a bad musician.

Innovation and the Future of Music

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