Initial Integrated Rail ReportStrategic Transport Plan Evidence BaseReport by Steer Davis Gleave commissioned by Transport for the North

Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material for Transport for the North. This material may only be

used within the context and scope for which Steer Davies Gleave has prepared it and may not be relied

upon in part or whole by any third party or be used for any other purpose. Any person choosing to use

any part of this material without the express and written permission of Steer Davies Gleave shall be

deemed to confirm their agreement to indemnify Steer Davies Gleave for all loss or damage resulting

therefrom. Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material using professional practices and procedures

using information available to it at the time and as such any new information could alter the validity of

the results and conclusions made.

Initial Integrated Rail Report

Transport for the North

June 2017 Our ref: 23015401

Prepared by:

Prepared for:

Steer Davies Gleave

67 Albion Street

Leeds LS1 5AA

Transport for the North

4 Piccadilly Place

Manchester

M1 3BG

+44 113 389 6400

www.steerdaviesgleave.com

June 2017

Contents

Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... i

1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 5

Context ......................................................................................................................................... 5

Purpose of the Report .................................................................................................................. 7

Geographic Scope of the Report................................................................................................... 9

Structure of the Report............................................................................................................... 10

2 Building the Northern Powerhouse ................................................................................... 11

Economic Challenges .................................................................................................................. 11

Transforming the North .............................................................................................................. 12

Transport and the Economy ....................................................................................................... 14

3 Rail and the Norths Economy ........................................................................................... 16

Rails role in delivering economic activity .................................................................................. 16

4 Vision and Objectives ....................................................................................................... 22

STP Vision & Objectives .............................................................................................................. 22

The Contribution of Rail to the Vision ........................................................................................ 22

5 Rail in the North Baseline ................................................................................................. 24

Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 24

Supply ......................................................................................................................................... 24

Demand ...................................................................................................................................... 35

Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 41

6 Rail in the North Horizon Scanning .................................................................................... 43

Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 43

Supply ......................................................................................................................................... 43

Demand ...................................................................................................................................... 48

Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 56

7 Economic Gaps and Conditional Outputs ........................................................................... 57

Strategic Gaps ............................................................................................................................. 57

Review of LTRS Gaps ................................................................................................................... 57

Conditional Outputs.................................................................................................................... 58

June 2017

8 Options and Sequencing ................................................................................................... 66

Scope .......................................................................................................................................... 66

Identification of Corridors .......................................................................................................... 66

Connectivity Priorities................................................................................................................. 69

9 Next Steps and Implementation .......................................................................................... 3

Moving Towards a Single Integrated Rail Plan ............................................................................. 4

Figures

Figure 1.1: The Strategic Transport Plan and its Evidence Base ................................................... 6

Figure 1.2: Identification of pan-Northern Interventions ............................................................. 7

Figure 2.1: The Norths Prosperity Gap (in GVA per capita) with the Rest of the UK ................ 11

Figure 2.2: Sample Locations of Key Assets of the NPIER Prime Capabilities ............................. 13

Figure 3.1: Number of rail trips annually (all journey purposes), average for NPIER prime and

enabling capabilities ................................................................................................................... 18

Figure 4.1: Value added by developing a Single Integrated Rail Plan ........................................ 23

Figure 5.1: The Passenger Rail Network in the North (Schematic)............................................. 26

Figure 5.2: Rail journey times accessing Northern cities ............................................................ 30

Figure 5.3: LDHS and Interurban Average Speeds (Trans-Pennine Express, InterCity West Coast,

InterCity East Coast, Wales & Borders, Grand Central) .............................................................. 33

Figure 5.4: Passenger journeys in the North, 1995/96 2014/15 (thousands) ......................... 35

Figure 5.5: Passenger journeys, TransPennine Express and long distance TOCs ....................... 36

Figure 5.6: Million gross tonne miles, 2005/06 2015/16 ......................................................... 37

Figure 5.7: Mass of freight goods carried on the rail network (million tonnes), 2005/06

2015/16....................................................................................................................................... 38

Figure 6.1: Vision for NPR Network Frequencies and Journey Times ...................................... 48

Figure 6.2: Northern Demand Transport Model Scenarios ........................................................ 50

Figure 6.3: Difference between 2016 and 2050 with NPIER scenarios - Hourly Rail Freight Paths

Required ..................................................................................................................................... 54

Figure 7.1: Strategic freight flows in the North .......................................................................... 61

Figure 8.1: Strategic Development Corridors ............................................................................. 67

Figure 8.2: Sample Locations of Key Assets of the NPIER Prime Capabilities ............................. 67

Figure 9.1: Process towards a Single Integrated Rail Plan ............................................................ 4

June 2017

Tables

Table 3.1: Rail (heavy rail, light rail, tram and underground) mode share percentages

(commuters) (2015) .................................................................................................................... 17

Table 5.1: Passenger Rail Operators in the North ...................................................................... 27

Table 5.2: Selected LDHS and Inter-urban Frequencies .......................................................