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Transcript of INFRASTRUCTURE CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT: principles and Applications David Lapp, P.Eng. David Lapp,...
INFRASTRUCTURE CLIMATE INFRASTRUCTURE CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT: RISK ASSESSMENT:
principles and Applicationsprinciples and Applications
David Lapp, P.Eng.David Lapp, P.Eng.
Manager, Professional Practice, Engineers Manager, Professional Practice, Engineers CanadaCanada
Public Infrastructure Engineering Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC)Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC)
City of Castlegar, BCCity of Castlegar, BCFebruary 4, 2010February 4, 2010
Adaptation of Infrastructure
Risk ToleranceRisk Tolerance
Extreme Events
Societal Factors
Protocols
Vulnerability/Risk Assessment
Life cycle
Adaptive Capacity
Infrastructure Deficit
Data
Operations/Maintenance
ADAPTATIONADAPTATION
Changing Climate
Catastrophic Failure
Engineering Considerations
Current Practice• Resilience• Often neglected –
Designed for extremes
• Has deficit• History of extreme
events• Everyday plans and
procedures in place• Professional team in
place
Uncertainties• Climatic factors
changed?• Risk priority – life/
economy/security• Are design extremes
relevant?• Have Risk tolerance?• Do you have the data?• Definition of a
catastrophic failure?
• What to adapt?• How to adapt?
Design life-appropriate assessment
Structures Expected Lifecycle
Houses/Buildings
Retrofit/alterations 15-20 yrsDemolition 50-100 yrs
Storm/Sanitary Sewer
Base system 100 yrsMajor upgrade 50 yrs
Components 25 – 50 yrs
Dams/ Water Supply
Base system 50-100 yrsRefurbishment 20-30 yrs
Reconstruction 50 yrs
Roads & Bridges
Road surface 10 - 20 yrsBridges 50 - 100 yrs
Maintenance annuallyResurface concrete 20-25 yrs
Reconstruction 50-100 yrs
• Design life varies
• Component-based vulnerability assessment
• Safety / economics / technical
• There is adaptive capacity because of maintenance & rehabilitation
• Conversely, poor maintenance and lack of rehabilitation contributes to vulnerability
Guiding PrinciplesGuiding Principles
The climate is changingThe climate is changing
Climate change threatens the ability of Climate change threatens the ability of engineers to safely and effectively design engineers to safely and effectively design infrastructure to meet the needs of infrastructure to meet the needs of Canadians Canadians
Calls into question current rules and design Calls into question current rules and design standardsstandards
Design, operation and maintenance practices Design, operation and maintenance practices must adapt must adapt
Climate change engineering vulnerability Climate change engineering vulnerability assessment is one tool to aid in the assessment is one tool to aid in the adaptation processadaptation process
The Past IS NOT the FutureThe Past IS NOT the Future
The Past is the Future
Current Trend
Un-quantifiedRisk
How do Small Changes Lead to How do Small Changes Lead to Catastrophic Failure?????Catastrophic Failure?????
• Design CapacityDesign Capacity• Safety FactorSafety Factor• Impact of age on Impact of age on
structurestructure• Impact of unforeseen Impact of unforeseen
weatheringweathering• Design LoadDesign Load• Change of use over Change of use over
timetime• Severe climate eventSevere climate event
FailureFailure
Some ObservationsSome Observations• A small change can have a dramatic impactA small change can have a dramatic impact
• Design safety margins may not last through the Design safety margins may not last through the full operational life of an infrastructure systemfull operational life of an infrastructure system– Margins may be consumed by day-to-day Margins may be consumed by day-to-day
uses/activitiesuses/activities
• Failure often arises from a combination of eventsFailure often arises from a combination of events– Many of which we do not normally monitorMany of which we do not normally monitor
• Climate change can affect both the load and Climate change can affect both the load and capacity of a structurecapacity of a structure
• Smaller measures can mitigate risk if we act Smaller measures can mitigate risk if we act earlyearly– Changes in maintenance practiceChanges in maintenance practice– Measuring and monitoringMeasuring and monitoring
More ObservationsMore Observations• Vulnerability assessment is predictiveVulnerability assessment is predictive
• We are contemplating POTENTIAL failure We are contemplating POTENTIAL failure modes based on forecast information modes based on forecast information
• But how much confidence do we have in But how much confidence do we have in the prediction?the prediction?
• In order to effectively address the issue In order to effectively address the issue we need to assess:we need to assess:– The likelihood of the event The likelihood of the event – The level of service disruptionThe level of service disruption
• Without this assessment there is Without this assessment there is insufficient context to properly manage insufficient context to properly manage the issuethe issue
⇒ ⇒ = RISK ASSESSMENT= RISK ASSESSMENT
Climate Change Risk Mitigation through Climate Change Risk Mitigation through AdaptationAdaptation
FloodFlood FloodFlood
FloodFlood
Climate ChangeClimate ChangeA
daptation
Adaptatio
n
Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Vulnerability Assessment and Risk MitigationMitigation
FloodFlood FloodFlood
FloodFlood
Climate ChangeClimate ChangeA
daptation
Adaptatio
n
Engineering Vulnerability Assessment
Risk Mitigation
More ObservationsMore Observations• Vulnerability assessment is predictiveVulnerability assessment is predictive
• We are contemplating POTENTIAL failure We are contemplating POTENTIAL failure modes based on forecast information modes based on forecast information
• But how much confidence do we have in But how much confidence do we have in the prediction?the prediction?
• In order to effectively address the issue In order to effectively address the issue we need to assess:we need to assess:– The likelihood of the event The likelihood of the event – The level of service disruptionThe level of service disruption
• Without this assessment there is Without this assessment there is insufficient context to properly manage insufficient context to properly manage the issuethe issue
⇒ ⇒ = RISK ASSESSMENT= RISK ASSESSMENT
Public Infrastructure EngineeringPublic Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC)
• Partnership between Engineers Canada and Partnership between Engineers Canada and Natural Resources CanadaNatural Resources Canada
• Oversee a national engineering assessment Oversee a national engineering assessment of the vulnerability of public infrastructure to of the vulnerability of public infrastructure to climate changeclimate change
• Facilitate the development of best Facilitate the development of best engineering practices that adapt to climate engineering practices that adapt to climate change impactschange impacts
• Utilize results to facilitate reviews of Utilize results to facilitate reviews of infrastructure codes and standardsinfrastructure codes and standards
PIEVC MembershipPIEVC Membership
NRCanNRCan Transport CanadaTransport Canada Environment CanadaEnvironment Canada Infrastructure CanadaInfrastructure Canada Public Works and Public Works and
Government Services Government Services CanadaCanada
National Research National Research CouncilCouncil
Alberta Infrastructure Alberta Infrastructure and Transportationand Transportation
NWT Asset NWT Asset Management DivisionManagement Division
Government of Government of Newfoundland and Newfoundland and LabradorLabrador
Institute of Institute of Catastrophic Loss Catastrophic Loss ReductionReduction
Canadian Standards Canadian Standards AssociationAssociation
Federation of Federation of Canadian Canadian MunicipalitiesMunicipalities
Municipality of Municipality of Portage la PrairiePortage la Prairie
City of MontrealCity of Montreal Corporation of Delta, Corporation of Delta,
BCBC City of CalgaryCity of Calgary Ontario Ministry of Ontario Ministry of
Energy and Energy and InfrastructureInfrastructure
OuranosOuranos
Infrastructure Categories Infrastructure Categories
BuildingsBuildings
Roads and Associated Roads and Associated StructuresStructures
Water ResourcesWater Resources
Stormwater and Stormwater and Wastewater SystemsWastewater Systems
PIEVC Engineering Protocol PIEVC Engineering Protocol
The Protocol is a step by The Protocol is a step by step process, derived from step process, derived from standard risk management standard risk management techniques, to assess techniques, to assess impacts of climate change impacts of climate change on infrastructureon infrastructure
Goal:Goal: Assist infrastructure owners Assist infrastructure owners
and operators to effectively and operators to effectively incorporate climate change incorporate climate change adaptation into design, adaptation into design, development and decision-development and decision-makingmaking
A Five Step ProcessA Five Step Process
Seven Case StudiesSeven Case Studies
ThermosyphonFoundations
Quesnell BridgeEdmonton
VancouverSewerage Area
Portage la Prairie Water Treatment Plant
PlacentiaWater Resources
OttawaBuildings
SudburyRoads & Accessories
• Water resources systems
• Storm & wastewater systems
• Roads & bridges
• Buildings
Portage la Prairie - Drinking Water Treatment Facility
Portage la Prairie - Drinking Water Treatment Facility
VulnerabilitiesClimate Effect Infrastructure Component
Floods, ice jams, ice build up Control dam structure
Floods, ice jams, ice build up, intense rain
Intake well & pump
Drought Water source
Ice storms, hail, intense rain, tornadoes
Power supply, communications, operations staff
Recommendations• Improve emergency preparedness for extreme events• Improve flood protection• Planned infrastructure improvements to account for climate change
Metro Vancouver: Vancouver Sewerage Area Case Study
Metro Vancouver – Vancouver Sewerage Area
Recommendations• Identify stand by power requirements • Emergency response plan• Determine if additional effort at sewer separation might be required• Further assess flooding potential at wastewater treatment plant
VulnerabilitiesClimate Effect Infrastructure Component
Intense rain Combined sewer overflows
Annual rain volume Combined sewer overflows
Storm surge + sea level change + subsidence
Flooding of treatment plant
Storm surge + wind/wave action
Effluent discharge; jetty structure
Edmonton – Quesnell Bridge
Design high water level : 1915 flood
Edmonton – Quesnell Bridge
Recommendations• Design drainage system for increased peak rain• Review monitoring / maintenance / operations procedures • Material selection/design (e.g. based on new temperatures ranges)• Perform sensitivity analyses• Review / update climatic data in bridge design code • Assess other bridges that would be sensitive to scour; slope instability; wind; softening foundations / settlement
VulnerabilitiesClimate Effect Infrastructure Component
Flood + peak rain Drainage system overload - serviceability
Freeze-thaw, ice accretion Weather surface – increased deteriorationDrainage system performance
Snow volume / pattern Snow clearing increase/decrease
Ottawa - Buildings
Ottawa - Buildings
Recommendations• Historical or culturally valuable buildings may need a longer time horizon • Identify stand by power requirements• Further assessment of buildings located on permafrost
VulnerabilitiesClimate Effect Infrastructure Component
Rainfall / humidity Building envelope
Freeze-thaw cycles Deterioration of building materials, especially roof membrane, concrete and masonry
Temperature / humidity extremes HVAC systems ability to maintain an acceptable indoor environment
Snow load / wind / combo changes Structural (e.g. roof)
PIEVC Update
• Progress report on National Engineering Assessment issued in June, 2008 (www.pievc.ca)
• Contribution Agreement with Natural Resources Canada for Phase III of the PIEVC work in place since mid-April 2009
• Any interested parties may use the Protocol at no charge through a license agreement with Engineers Canada – provide results for the national knowledge base
PIEVC: Key Directions – 2009-2011
• Increase number of case studies (regionally and functionally)
• Develop and compile national knowledge base• Update and refine PIEVC Engineering Protocol
– Module for ROM costing of adaptation alternatives, refine terminology, etc.
• Focused information dissemination- practitioners, students, educators- nationally and internationally
• Development and delivery of training workshops
Going forward
Identify critical infrastructure• Human health & safety• Life line structures / transportation
corridors• What damage can we live with / repair
(economics)• Component design life• Incorporate better climate information
into planned works (new & upgrades / maintenance)
Questions Questions
For more information on Engineers For more information on Engineers Canada and PIEVC please contact:Canada and PIEVC please contact:
David Lapp, P.Eng.David Lapp, P.Eng.
Manager, Professional PracticeManager, Professional Practice
Engineers CanadaEngineers Canada
180 Elgin Street, Suite 1100180 Elgin Street, Suite 1100
Ottawa, OntarioOttawa, Ontario
K2P 2K3K2P 2K3
Tel: Tel: 1-613-232-2474 ext 2401-613-232-2474 ext 240 [email protected]
www.pievc.cawww.pievc.ca