Informe de Centros y Parques Comerciales en España – Julio 2014

13
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description

En este informe se analizan circunstancias del mercado como la llegada de inversores internacionales a España, el comportamiento del sector de los centros comerciales en términos de desocupación, ventas, rentas, promoción de equipamientos comerciales y densidad comercial; el auge del e-commerce y del turismo de compras en ciudades como Madrid y Barcelona y, asimismo, repasa el capítulo de la inversión, volumen y transacciones alcanzados en 2013 y primer trimestre de 2014.

Transcript of Informe de Centros y Parques Comerciales en España – Julio 2014

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Fuente: Oxford Economics (Abril 2014)

PIB. Previsiones de Crecimiento 2014 – 2016 (% p.a.)

< 0,0% 0,1% a 0,5% 0,6% a 1,0% 1,1% a 2,0% 2,1% a 3,0% 3,1% a 4,0% > 4,0%

Total PIB. 2014 – 2016 (miles de millones �)

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Economics.

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10TENDENCIAS

RemodelaciónGlobal Retail

2. Crecimiento económicoa múltiples velocidades: Oportunidades con riesgo

1. Aumento de la población mundial: crecimiento

demográfico imparable.

4. Explosión de informa-ción: Conocimiento definitivo

y “variedad agotadora”

5. Uso de ‘Big Data’: la

oportunidad llama a la puerta

de los retailers.

6. Ética del consumidor vs. Deseo del consumidor:

equilibrio responsable entre

comercio y consumo.

7. Apagar / encender: La

tecnología permite a los

consumidores tomar

el control.

8. Cambio de ritmo: los

retalirs necesitan innovar,

crear y aprovechar

la oportunidad.

10. Tiempo, la nueva mercancía: retailers

y propietarios compiten por el

tiempo del consumidor.

9. Redefiniendo el espacio: reformulando el papel de la

tienda.

3. e-commerce = comercio global. Canales irrelevantes

en un mundo sin “costuras”

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-12

jul-1

2 se

p-12

no

v-12

en

e-13

m

ar-1

3 m

ay-1

3 ju

l-13

sep-

13

nov-

13

ene-

14

mar

-14

Germany SPAIN France Italy United Kingdom

Source: Banco Central Europeo. Current Rates : April 2014

*V\U[Y`�9PZR�SL]LS .+7�.YV^[O�-VYLJHZ[������������

Source: Banco Central Europeo. Current Rates. April 2014

Source: Oxford Economics. April 2014

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Source: EMOTA (2013)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Benelux

Scandinavia

Austria/Switzerland

France

Italy

SPAIN

United Kingdom

Germany

Eastern Europe

Russia

European average: 17%

�111

�52 �46

�33

�20

�16 �13

�13 �12

�18 �17 United Kingdom France Germany Scandinavia Austria/Switzerland Benelux Russia Italy Spain Eastern Europe Other

Total turnover reached �351bn in 2013

Source: EMOTA (2013)

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Source: EMOTA 2013 Source: EMOTA 2013

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JLL 25

10TRENDS

Reshaping Global Retail

1. Urbanisation and

population growth:

unstoppable demographic forces

2. Multi-speed

economic growth: opportunities with risks

3. E-commerce =

Everywhere commerce:

channels become irrelevant in a seamless world

4. Information explosion:

ultimate knowledge and ‘choice exhaustion’

5. Harnessing ‘Big Data’: opportunity knocks

for retailers

6. Consumer ethics v.

consumer desire:

balancing responsible retailing and consumption

7. Power switch:

technology enables consumers to take control

8. Pace of change:

retailers need to innovate, create and exploit

���5HGHÀQLQJ�VSDFH��reshaping the role

of the store

10. Time, the new

commodity: retailers and landlords competing for

consumer time

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;OL�:OVWWPUN�*LU[YL�4HYRL[

Range �/ sq.m. (2011) �/ sq.m. (2012) �/ sq.m. (2013) 0-50 m� 5,500 5,400 5,300

51-200 m� 3,400 3,300 3,200

201-500 m� 2,610 2,450 2,300

501-1,500 m� 2,100 2,050 2,100

> 1,500 m� 2,000 1,850 1,900

TOTAL 2,500 2,400 2,300

Source: JLL (May 2014)

Spanish Average 2014 Approx. 359 sq.m /1,000

inhabitants

Source: JLL, May 2014

Sq.m / 1,000 inhab. Density

Over 500 Very High

400 to 499 High

300 to 399 Medium

200 to 299 Low

100 to 199 Very Low

Less than 100 Opportunity

(]LYHNL�:HSLZ�SL]LSZ���������� *\YYLU[�YL[HPS�KLUZP[`�THW�I`�WYV]PUJLZ

Source: JLL. May 2014

Source: JLL. May 2014

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665M�

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 2014

Num.

of S

hopp

ing C

entre

s

Millio

ns �

Shopping Centres Sale & Leaseback High Street Other Retail N. of Shopping Centres

1.190M� 1.423M�

Source: JLL. (April 2014)

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0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

7,00

8,00

Q2 20

00

Q4 20

00

Q2 20

01

Q4 20

01

Q2 20

02

Q4 20

02

Q2 20

03

Q4 20

03

Q2 20

04

Q4 20

04

Q2 20

05

Q4 20

05

Q2 20

06

Q4 20

06

Q2 20

07

Q4 20

07

Q2 20

08

Q4 20

08

Q2 20

09

Q4 20

09

Q2 20

10

Q4 20

10

Q2 20

11

Q4 20

11

Q2 20

12

Q4 20

12

Q2 20

13

Q4 20

13

Prim

e Sho

pping

Cen

tre Y

ield (

%)

EU Average France Germany Italy SPAIN UK

Yield harmonisation

Yield compression

Yield decompression

Yield polarisation

Source: JLL (April 2014)

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Source: JLL. April 2014

Source: JLL. April 2014

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