Information Technology and Processing Power E-Business Dr. Stephen Tse

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Stephen TseStephen Tse

Information Technology andInformation Technology andProcessing PowerProcessing PowerE-BusinessE-Business

Dr. Stephen TseDr. Stephen TseChief Technology Planning Strategist Chief Technology Planning Strategist

(Greater China CBU, Bell Labs)(Greater China CBU, Bell Labs)Associate Professor – QCAssociate Professor – QC

[email protected]

Lesson 2Lesson 2

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Disruptive Technologies Driving the Disruptive Technologies Driving the Communication IndustryCommunication Industry

Cellular Phone

10B

1B

100M

10M

Tra

ns

isto

rs p

er

Ch

ip

1995 2000 2005 2010

0.25µ

0.18µ

0.13µ

0.10µ

0.07µ

Probable limitfor silicon

Silicon

PC

“5ESS”Circuit Switch

0.8m Wavelength

1.3m

1.3/1.5m

1.5m WDM

WDMSystems

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Sin

gle

-fib

er

cap

acit

y (

Gb

it/s

ec) Optics

Software is key to network management and new services

Software is key to network management and new services

Years

Cap

acit

y/C

ost

Disruptive Packet Technology

ATM

IP

?

Advances in Silicon, Optics, Wireless, and Software will drive a 250-fold increase in network capacity by 2005.

Advances in Silicon, Optics, Wireless, and Software will drive a 250-fold increase in network capacity by 2005.

1995 2000 2005

1000

100

10

1

Incr

ease

ove

r A

nal

og

Cel

lula

r V

oic

e C

all C

arry

ing

Cap

acit

y

2010

Wireless

80 wavelengthsin 1998, 1,000wavelengths in2005

Multi-antenna systemincreases capacity 10x-100x

SCALPEL lithography enablesatomic-scale transistors forsystems on a chip

Protocol-agnosticQoS-enabled routers

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Technology Advances

Technologies ExamplesImprovement1998 - 2002

Integrated Circuit Density 16x 4 GBIT DRAM

Processor Speed 15x 7700 MIPS-2G

High-Speed Switching 25x 25x106 PKTS/SEC

6.4 Terabits/sec

Speech Recognition 15x 5000 WordContinuous Speech

Lightwave 3x 3.2 Terabits/sec.

Storage 25x 50 GBYTE Card

Wireless Capacity 20x Digital, Micro and Pico cells

Software Productivity up to 10x Reusable Software/

Parallel processing

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TelephonyTelephony•• Wide AreaWide Area

NetworksNetworks•• Local NetworkLocal Network•• CPECPE

CATVCATV•• Content ProvidersContent Providers•• Multiple PackagersMultiple Packagers•• Local Network(s)Local Network(s)•• CPECPE

ComputersComputers•• Software ProvidersSoftware Providers•• Hardware ProvidersHardware Providers•• NetworkingNetworking•• DistributionDistribution

ChannelsChannels•• Hardware &Hardware &

Software PackagesSoftware Packages

ContentContent•• MusiciansMusicians•• ReportersReporters•• DistributionDistribution

ChannelsChannels•• BooksBooks•• CDsCDs•• NewspaperNewspaper

Today: Separate Vertical Industries

Future:InformationIndustry

Information ContentInformation Content

Information ServersInformation Servers

Information NetworksInformation Networks

Information AppliancesInformation Appliances

Cyber Carriers

••Intense Competition

••New Opportunities

Technology Convergence Is Breaking Down BarriersBetween Historically Separate Industry Segments

An Industry in Change

Business in the speed of Light

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Business Processes will Change as Enterprises Incorporate eBusiness

TomorrowIntegrated business processes

driven by secure access & shared information

VirtualEnterprise

Customers

GlobalLocations

Suppliers

Remote &Mobile

Workers

Communitiesof Interest

TransportService

ProvidersOutsourcedApplications

Partners

Traditional Enterprise

TodayBusiness processes bounded by

bricks & mortar

Partners

Suppliers

Customers

GlobalLocations

HR, Payroll,Finance

Manufacturing

Logistics

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E-Business Working DefinitionE-Business Working Definition

Technologies advance change business value chain position. Enterprise must continuously optimize its value position in order to stay competitive.An electronic business (e-Business) will use its Information Technologies(IT) infrastructure, networks, and applications for continuous optimization of its value chain position.

May 1.0

SCM ERP CRM

Inventory

Purchasing

Logistics

Financial Marketing

Sales

Transaction Flow

ClientServices

Ebiz

E-Business affects most operational aspects of an enterprise

Supply Chain Management Customer Relationship ManagementEnterprise Resource Procedure

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TelemedicineTelemedicine Media-enabledMedia-enabled

Virtual OfficeVirtual Office E-CommerceE-Commerce

Distance Distance learninglearning

Interactive Interactive coursewarecourseware

Web radioWeb radio Web televisionWeb television

Important uses ofImportant uses of Multimedia ContentMultimedia Content


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PostalStandard e-mail works fine• But how about . . . .

– Certificate of delivery– Certificate of mailing– Time stamps– Registered post

• Secure mail technology is available (S-MIME)

– Works with encryption technology

Converged Networks Will Provide

e-Commerce

• Credit cards– Secure as point-point transaction– New schemes (SET) enable capabilities yet unknown in physical world

• Smart cards• Cashless society (anonymity!)

Next generational communication

• Single network based personal data• Persistent rules, address books, friends list, . . .• Dynamic directories (Who’s online? Where?)• Unified messaging (Voice/e-mail/video)• Any-device, anywhere, anytime, but under your control

The TV viewing experience

• Meta-information adds to viewing experience• Big-red buy button• Collaborative viewing• Blurr real-time and non-real time• Personalized viewing (learning)

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4x4 Array of 2-Axis Micromirrors1mm mirror spacing / 0.5mm mirror diameterScalable to very large cross-connects (1024x1024)

Optical X-C2-Axis Micromirror

A MEMS Based Mirror Array

Mirror SurfaceMirror Surface

Self-AssemblingSprings

Self-AssemblingSprings

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I/O Fibers

Imaging Lenses

Reflector

MEMS 2-axis Tilt Mirrors

• Inherently bit-rate and protocol independent fabric

• Single-stage free space optical interconnection

• Compact optics (~25mm x 50mm x 50mm for 256x256 OXC).

• < 5msec switching.• ~ 6dB single-mode fiber

insertion loss• <-50dB crosstalk

Optical Space Fabric Router

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Photon Magic Micro Electro Mechanical Systems

Router

.5 mm

MEMS OXCI/O Fibers

ImagingLensesReflector

MEMS2-axis TiltMirrors

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3,200+ Innovative Companies3,200+ Innovative Companies

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Broadband Access Options Fiber Feeder

& Heterogeneous ‘First Mile’

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Deployment Year

Meg

abit

s

ISDN

VF Modem

DSL-Lite

ADSL

Stationary beam

VDSL

14.4

28.833.6

56K V.90

CableModem

Steerable Beam

Time-Space Processing

SDSLHDSL HDSL2

ATM PON (FTTH)

Wireless

Twisted Pair

Cable

Fiber

Ethernet

OpticalEthernet

Wavelan

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Free Space Optics – Laser Wireless

© 1999 L ucent T echnologies Lucent Technologies P roprietary Page 1

Access toRemoteMedia

Event inStadium

Span toClose

Fiber Ring

Building toBuilding

Connectivity

Accessto

CampusNetwork

Access AcrossGeographical

Barrier

(e.g. river)

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Very High Speed Atomic Scale Circuits

• SCALPEL lithography will

make VLSI circuits with 0.03m

(~90 atoms) devices practical

and economical

• 3D semiconductor structures will

extend the “Moore curve”

beyond lithography

• Indium phosphide will provide

high speed devices required for

future optical networking

Gate Gate

Source

Drain

Ch

ann

el

Gateoxide

Gateoxide

Gatelength

-55

-45

-35

-25

-15

-5

+5

120.03 120.04 120.05 120.06 120.07 120.08 120.09

Po

we

r [d

Bm

]

Frequency [GHz]

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What Will Happen in 2005?What Will Happen in 2005?

•Predictable Technologies - Silicon up by a factor of 50 - Fiber up by a factor of 100 - Wireless up by a factor 0f 100-1000

•Unpredictable Architectures and Convulsive Markets - IP for everything? - Home Networks? - Information appliances? - Video services on appliances? Sony Glasstron

personal theater

Palm VIIwireless PDA

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Information Technology and Processing Power E-Business Dr. Stephen Tse

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