Inequality Matters: austerity policies, gender and race · Inequality Matters: austerity policies,...
Transcript of Inequality Matters: austerity policies, gender and race · Inequality Matters: austerity policies,...
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Inequality Matters: austerity policies, gender and race
LSE Commission on Gender, Inequality and Power and Department of Economics Public Lecture
Professor Stephanie Seguino Professor of Economics, University of Vermont Professorial Research Associate, SOAS
Diane Negra Professor of Film Studies and Screen Culture Head of Film Studies, University College Dublin
Professor Alan Manning Chair, LSE
Saphieh Ashtiany Principal of Ashtiany Associates Visiting Professor, QMUL
Suggested hashtag for Twitter users: #LSEtalksGender
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Stephanie Seguino University of Vermont and SOAS
May 2015
INEQUALITY MATTERS: AUSTERITY POLICIES, GENDER, AND RACE
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CONTEXT OF THE GLOBAL AND EUROZONE CRISES:
The growth of class inequality
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CONTEXT OF THE CRISIS
• Employment precariousness and “feminization of work”
• White men: downward harmonization to the status of racial and gender subordinate groups
• Households borrowed to maintain living standards
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SUBALTERN GROUPS ENTER CRISIS WITH GREATEST ECONOMIC DEFICITS
• Lone parents (largely female-headed) • Ethnic minorities
• FHH in US: poverty rate of 51% (after transfers)
• Minorities and women in lowest wage jobs
• Few assets or savings
• High rates of involuntary part-time work
• Double the rate of ineligibility for unemployment insurance
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RACE, GENDER, AND THE SUBPRIME MORTGAGE CRISIS IN THE US
Minority and women applicants were super-excluded from mortgage credit before 2007 Over 60% of minority applicants had credit scores that made them eligible for prime lending rates But they were “super-included” in subprime lending
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THE CRISIS: FIRST-ROUND EFFECTS
• Widespread destruction of jobs • Credit dries up • Sharp decline in government tax revenues
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY RACE/ETHNICITY, US, 2007-2012
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY RACE/ETHNICITY, UK, 2007-2013
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
White Black
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Race/ethnic minorities as economic shock absorbers: Unemployment rates in 2012
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US MONTHLY UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY MARITAL STATUS, JAN. 1990-JAN. 2013
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HOW DO FAMILIES SURVIVE? SECOND-ROUND EFFECTS
• Depletion of savings, assets to cushion fall • Bankruptcy, homelessness, loss of credit
rating (long-term impact)
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SECOND-ROUND EFFECTS: THE STATE
• Deficits and debt rise: • Decline in tax revenues • Bank/industry bailouts • Increased social spending (not all are eligible)
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OTHER SECOND-ROUND EFFECTS
• More services produced at home, unpaid care labor rises
• Women more strongly affected
• Added-worker effect
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THIRD-ROUND EFFECTS: AUSTERITY
• Higher retirement age • Social expenditures cut • Higher prices for public goods
• Education, health
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RATIONALE FOR AUSTERITY
• Reduce public sector deficits/debt by cutting spending
• Why? • Debt -> leads to loss of confidence in an
economy • Result: Higher interest rates and slower growth
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AUSTERITY AS BAD ECONOMICS
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SHORT- RUN COSTS OF AUSTERITY
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SHORT-RUN COSTS: MORE JOBLESSNESS OR SLOWER GROWTH
• Middle class is too weak to support the consumer spending that has historically driven economic growth
• Incomes & tax revenues fall
DEFICIT/DEBT as % of GDP
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AUSTERITY AND GROWTH, 2009-13
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Annu
al av
erag
e per
capi
ta G
DP g
rowt
h
Austerity as % of GDP
UK
PPo
Germany US
Portugal
Austria
Italy
Belgium
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook 2013, WDI, and Krugman (2015)
Greece
Spain
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GROWTH HAS NOT RECOVERED AND TAX CUTS WILL NOT HELP • Consumer debt in UK at 7-year high
• Non-mortgage debt in 2014: £9,000 per household • Due to insufficient demand, firms won’t expand output
and hire: “When there are no buyers, there are no sellers”
• Low interest rates cannot solve this problem
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GENDER AND AUSTERITY
• Initially, job losses affected men more than women • With budget cuts in social spending,
disproportionate female job losses • Foreign-born women most affected in Europe,
women of color in US • Women in weaker position to weather joblessness
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CONTRADICTORY GENDER EFFECTS • Women’s care burdens rise as social spending cut • But pressure on women to increase contribution to family
income by working in paid economy • Some men lose ability to perform breadwinner role
• Gender conflict and domestic violence rise: • Males leave HH • Domestic violence • Costs of domestic violence
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LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF AUSTERITY
• Consequences of underinvestment in social and physical infrastructure
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AUSTERITY AND THE PRODUCTION OF PEOPLE BY MEANS OF PEOPLE: CARE WORK
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UK COMBINED TAX AND SPENDING 2010-15 AS % OF NET INCOME
Landman Economics for WBG (2013). -18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%Couple with no
childrenCouple with
childrenMale lone parent Female lone
parent
Perc
ent o
f disp
osab
le in
com
e
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GENDER AND HUMAN CAPITAL (HK)
• Once born, the most important years for development of a child’s HK are 0-5.
• Team production defines the raising of children: parents & family, social services, society
• That said, children’s development critically affected by well-being of mothers • ~25% of all HH are lone parent in US and Ireland • 20% in Europe
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CHILD WELFARE OUTCOMES BY PERCEIVED ECONOMIC HARDSHIP, CANADA 2008
49%
22%
3%
79%
55%
11%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Substantiatedmaltreatment
concern
Opened forongoing services
Formal placement
No economic hardshipEconomic hardship
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YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT
• Older workers not retiring: • Loss in value of pension funds • Government-mandated increase in retirement age
• Limits slots for young, directly and indirectly • Greece’s youth UE rate = 60%, Spain’s = 50% • Chicago, black youth UE: 92% • Older (female) parents unavailable for care of children of young mothers
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THE RUINS OF DETROIT
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YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT AND HYSTERISIS
• Hysterisis – increase in UE becomes permanent. Why? • Skills erosion • Social dysfunction – depression, suicide,
violence, family dissolution
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CLASS, GENDER, AND & RACE/ETHNIC EFFECTS • Male job losses family defection, responsibility for women • Intragender inequality rises: Single mothers face worse effects
than married women • Ethnic inequality worsens: intensification of effects on women
of color • Long-run costs of depletion of social infrastructure excessively
high • Policy constraint: We are not in position to fully quantify these
effects
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HOW HAVE TOP INCOME GROUPS DONE SINCE THE CRISIS BEGAN? (US DATA)
10.0 8.3
12.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2007 2010 2013
US White-to-Black Wealth
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A FEW POINTS TO SUMMARIZE
• Origins of financial crisis are not recent • The environmental principle “let the polluter pay”
could have but did not guide the response to the crisis
• Both speak the underlying structural problems that cannot be solved by austerity policies
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SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
ACCOUNTS FOR COSTS OF AUSTERITY
• Austerity impinges on social reproduction • Social reproduction reflects the fact that labor is a
produced factor of production • The human sustainability of policies depends on the
social infrastructure as much as the physical infrastructure
• BUT we suffer from policy MYOPIA
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POLICY MYOPIA AND THE LONG RUN • Myopia: Excessive discounting of the future • Policy myopia arises when rational voters allow politicians
to bias public investments towards short-term investments • Other behavioral and institutional biases:
• Focus on market economy excludes social reproduction • Gender and racial bias in policy-making • Financial speculation emphasizes financial rather than
human/social indicators
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ALTERNATIVE MACROECONOMIC POLICIES
1. Wage-led growth • Job creation depends on increases in demand • Higher minimum wages stimulate demand
2. Prioritize spending that creates jobs for most vulnerable groups: single mothers, low-income households. • Larger impact on job creation • Reduces inequality • Improves long-run productivity growth
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ALTERNATIVES, CONTINUED
3. Direct spending to infrastructure: Reduces costs of doing business and care burden • Physical infrastructure: Roads, transportation, green energy research • Social infrastructure: Education, child care, health care, training for young
and older adults, food and housing support • These investments more than pay for themselves because they raise
productivity, income, and tax revenues
4. Raise more revenue: Financial transactions tax
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Inequality Matters: austerity policies, gender and race
LSE Commission on Gender, Inequality and Power and Department of Economics Public Lecture
Professor Stephanie Seguino Professor of Economics, University of Vermont Professorial Research Associate, SOAS
Diane Negra Professor of Film Studies and Screen Culture Head of Film Studies, University College Dublin
Professor Alan Manning Chair, LSE
Saphieh Ashtiany Principal of Ashtiany Associates Visiting Professor, QMUL
Suggested hashtag for Twitter users: #LSEtalksGender