INDUSTRY UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018...PACKAGING 3 SATISFYINGTHEPETFOODMARKET LabelsandLabeling...
Transcript of INDUSTRY UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018...PACKAGING 3 SATISFYINGTHEPETFOODMARKET LabelsandLabeling...
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Harris Williams & Co. Ltd is a private limited company authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, incorporated under English law with its registered office at 5th Floor, 6 St. Andrew Street, London EC4A 3AE, UK, registered with the Registrar of Companies for England and Wales under company number 07078852. Directors: Mr. Ned Valentine, Mr. Paul Poggi, Mr. Thierry Monjauze and Mr. Aadil Khan.
Harris Williams & Co. Ltd Niederlassung Frankfurt (German branch) is registered in the Commercial Register (Handelsregister) of the Local Court (Amtsgericht) of Frankfurt am Main, Germany, under registration number HRB 96687, having its business address at Bockenheimer Landstrasse 33-35, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Permanent Representative (Ständiger Vertreter) of the Branch Niederlassung: Mr. Jeffery H. Perkins.
PACKAGING
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
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PACKAGING INDUSTRY UPDATE
1
CONTENTS
WHAT WE’RE READING
ECONOMIC UPDATE
KEY THEMES
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW
SELECT M&A ACTIVITY
CONTACTS
Patrick McNultyManaging [email protected]+1 (804) 887-6039
Brad [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0168
Brandt CarrVice [email protected]+1 (804) 887-6018
INTRODUCTION
Harris Williams & Co. is pleased to present our packaging industry update forFebruary 2018. This report provides commentary and analysis on current capitalmarket trends and merger and acquisition dynamics within the global packagingindustry.
We hope you find this edition helpful and encourage you to contact us directly ifyou would like to discuss our perspective on current industry trends or our relevantindustry experience.
PACKAGING
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
www.harriswilliams.de
OUR PRACTICE
Harris Williams & Co. is a leading advisor to the packaging industry. Our significantexperience covers a broad range of end markets, industries, and business models.
Bags
Bottles & Cans
Caps & Closures
Flexible
Labels
Pouches
Rigid
Films
Foil
Glass
Laminations
Metal
Paperboard
Plastics
Specialty Paper
Packaging Types Materials Applications
Cosmetics
E-Commerce
Food & Beverage
Healthcare
Industrial
Other
UPCOMING INDUSTRY EVENTS
Harris Williams & Co. will be attending the 2018 PACK EXPOEast conference on April 16-18th at the PennsylvaniaConvention Center in Philadelphia. We hope to see you inattendance.
PACK EXPO East
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STRONG MOMENTUM ACROSS THE PACKAGING INDUSTRY
2
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018PACKAGING
Manufacturer of paper-based
protective packaging
solutions
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
Global provider of guiding,
winding, slitting and tension
control systems for web fed
converting applications
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
and
Manufacturer of flexible
paper-based packaging
solutions
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
a portfolio company of
Manufacturer of coated and
vacuum metallized paper
products
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
Provider of flexible packaging
solutions, injection-molded
fitments, and related filling
equipment
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
Producer of die cut
merchandise bags and film
substrates
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
Distributor of value-added
rigid packaging solutions
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
Provider of injection-molded
temporary waste storage
solutions
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
Provider of innovative
conveyor systems for
packaging-related
applications
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
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WHAT WE’RE READING
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018PACKAGING
3
SATISFYING THE PET FOOD MARKET
Labels and Labeling 2/8/2018In Asia-Pacific, pet food and related products are predicted to be worth $17 billion in 2022, according to EuromonitorInternational, with dog and cat food representing 72% of the total pet care market in the region at that time. Chinawill show the strongest CAGR value during the 2017-2022 period at 21%. Product launches in Asia are expected toprioritize quality and ingredients, with premiumization to be more prominent in 2022.
Read the full article here.
SMARTER, SMALLER, SIMPLER: WHAT’S AHEAD FOR ROBOTS IN PACKAGING?
Packaging Digest 2/13/2018Robots are a solution, not a problem. As our economy and manufacturing scream past top gear into overdrive,packagers at consumer packaged goods companies and everyone else have a problem finding enough people tostaff their plants. Robots continue to provide the answer.
Read the full article here.
THREE KEY ISSUES FACING THE PROTECTIVE AND TRANSIT PACKAGING MARKET
Packaging World 1/7/2018Three industry trends are providing incentives for innovation and are creating new opportunities and threats forplayers in the global protective transit packaging business. Protective transit packaging products and systems are vitalcomponents in the $32.2 trillion global market for manufactured goods.
Read the full article here.
MATERIALS M&A DEALS CONTINUED TO GROW IN 2017
Packaging News 1/19/2018The market for mergers and acquisitions involving plastics materials firms remained a strong one in 2017, and a bigcompounding deal might be on the agenda for 2018. The number of global resin, color and compounding dealsincreased 12% in 2017, growing from 43 to 48, and this momentum is expected to continue in 2018.
Read the full article here.
GROCERY SALES ARE HEAVILY IMPACTED BY E-COMMERCE, AND PACKAGERS NEED TO TAKE NOTE
Packaging World 2/1/2018It’s easy to get swept up in the recent reports about the astonishing growth of e-commerce. How grocery sales will beaffected, and the ramifications for food and beverage CPGs as well as makers of packaging materials andmachinery, are harder to pin down.
Read the full article here.
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50
60
70
80
90
100
05 08 11 14 17
(6%)
(4%)
(2%)
0%
2%
4%
05 08 11 14 17
U.S. EU-28
70
80
90
100
110
120
05 08 11 14 17
U.S. EU-28
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
05 08 11 14 17
WTI Brent Nat Gas
Feb-18:
20.8
ECONOMIC UPDATE
4
GDP (2,3)
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX (3,4)
CONSUMER SENTIMENT (5)
U.S.
U.S. industrial production jumped 8.2% at an annual rate for the fourthquarter of 2017 after being held down in the third quarter byHurricanes Harvey and Irma. At 107.5% of its 2012 average, the indexhas increased 3.6% since December 2016 for its largest calendar-yeargain since 2010.
EU-28
In December 2017 compared with November 2017, seasonallyadjusted industrial production rose by 0.3% in the EU-28 due toincreased production of intermediate goods and non-durableconsumer goods.
Consumer sentiment has remained largely unchanged for more thana year at very favorable levels. The January 2018 Sentiment figure of95.7 was just 0.2 index-points below December, and just 1.1 pointsbelow the 2017 average of 96.8, which was the highest yearlyaverage since 2000.
Stock price increases and the passage of tax reforms werereferenced as favorable factors by all-time record numbers ofconsumers.
PACKAGING
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
ENERGY PRICES (1)Feb-18:
119.4
Feb-18:
109.4
Monthly average Brent prices have increased for seven consecutivemonths, and in January spot prices moved higher than $70 per barrelfor the first time since December 2014. This activity has been primarilydriven by record demand.
Cold temperatures east of the Rocky Mountains in early Januarycontributed to high levels of natural gas consumption as well as areduction in production because of well freeze-offs. This combinationresulted in record-high natural gas inventory withdrawals in mid-January, which contributed to prices rising over 15% during theperiod.
U.S.
Current dollar gross domestic product (GDP) increased 1.2% from thethird quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2017 compared to 2.6%for real GDP.
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positivecontributions from personal consumption expenditures, non-residential fixed investment, and exports.
EU-28
Seasonally adjusted GDP in the EU-28 rose by 0.6% in the fourthquarter, with 2.6% year-over-year growth.
Jan-18:
95.7
Q4-17:
0.6%
Q4-17:
1.2%
Dec-17:
107.5
Dec-17:
111.9
Energy Prices(Indexed)
Consumer Sentiment Index
Industrial Production Index
GDP(Quarter-Over-Quarter Growth)
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KEY THEMES
5
PACKAGING
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
HEALTH, WELLNESS AND SUSTAINABILITY ARE SHAPING THE PACKAGING LANDSCAPE (8)
M&A ACTIVITY IN THE PACKAGING INDUSTRY (6)
M&A activity in the packaging space remains elevated.
– On an LTM basis as of January 2018, $28.3 billion of deal valuehas been announced globally vs. $16.4 billion for the prior yearLTM period.
Packaging industry M&A remains robust globally, with the majority
of LTM January 2018 targets located in Western Europe (37%), NorthAmerica (35%), and the Asia Pacific region (17%).
More than eight deals over $1 billion have been announced orclosed in the last twelve months.
Global Packaging M&A Value(announced deal value, LTM)
Today’s health-conscious and eco-friendly consumers are drivingdevelopment and innovation in global packaging trends that align
with their desire for healthy, premium, and sustainable products.
As consumers shift to healthier lifestyles, packaging trends must
follow, increasing the sales of packaging containers for healthy
products, like water bottles, and that cater to busier lifestyles, such
as small portable packaging products.
– Bottled water and PET bottles are forecasted to grow 7.5% and
5.0%, respectively, over the 2015-2020 period.
– Flexible packaging is forecasted to grow across geographies,with significant expected growth in Asia Pacific, due to itslightweight, recyclable, and affordable characteristics.
2015 – 2020 Fastest Growing Packaging Types (billions of units)
TAKING FLIGHT: COMMERCIAL DRONES IN THE PACKAGING INDUSTRY (7)
A majority of drones currently in the air have been developed ascheap toys or expensive weapons, but drones are rapidly gaining
popularity for a range of commercial uses, including packaging.
In 2016 roughly 110,000 drones were sold for commercial use versus
roughly 174,000 in 2017, according to Gartner.
Delivery and logistics companies are focused on using drones forpackaging distribution of a variety of items including foods andconsumer goods.
– Amazon, Google, and tech start-ups have begun
experimenting with drone package delivery onto targets in arecipient’s garden or back yard – approximately 75% ofconsumers expect widespread package delivery by drones in
the next four years.
Drones Sold for Commercial Use(units in thousands)
72% Increase
92
12
1
66
1115
0
50
100
Asia Pacific Western
EuropeNorth
America
Flexible Plastic PET Bottles
$16.4
$28.3
January 2017 January 2018
58% Increase
110
174
2016 2017
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PUBLIC COMPARABLES (6)
6
As of February 28, 2018 ($ in millions, except per share amounts)
PACKAGING
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
Notes: LTM as of most recent reporting; free cash flow conversion defined as EBITDA less capital expenditures divided by EBITDA.
3-Year Free Cash
Current % of Revenue FY 2018E Price / Earnings TEV / EBITDA Flow Net Debt /
Price LTM High Mkt Cap TEV CAGR Revenue EBITDA Margin FY 2018E FY 2019P LTM FY 2018E FY 2019P Conversion EBITDA
Diversified / Specialty
Amcor $10.83 83.2% $12,544 $17,023 (0.6%) $9,435 $1,521 16.1% 16.9x 15.2x 12.1x 11.2x 10.3x 74.3% 3.1x
Berry Global 54.40 88.2% 7,137 12,709 17.3% 7,868 1,462 18.6% 14.5x 13.3x 9.7x 8.7x 8.4x 77.3% 4.1x
Sealed Air Corporation 42.37 84.8% 7,092 10,668 (12.2%) 4,753 901 19.0% 17.3x 15.0x 14.4x 11.8x 11.3x 75.2% 3.6x
Sonoco Products Company 47.97 86.0% 4,768 6,053 2.3% 5,343 728 13.6% 15.0x 14.1x 9.7x 8.3x 8.0x 69.8% 1.9x
Aptargroup 89.42 96.9% 5,554 6,321 5.1% 2,691 533 19.8% 23.8x 21.3x 13.3x 11.9x 11.1x 67.2% 1.1x
Bemis Company 44.09 87.4% 4,011 5,544 0.1% 4,081 571 14.0% 15.7x 14.2x 10.4x 9.7x 9.2x 64.5% 2.8x
Huhtamaki Oyj 42.43 95.5% 4,572 5,332 8.3% 3,840 515 13.4% 17.3x 15.5x 12.2x 10.3x 9.5x 44.4% 1.9x
Greif 57.57 87.8% 2,811 4,402 2.9% 3,939 480 12.2% 16.9x 15.3x 9.6x 9.2x 8.5x 75.2% 2.1x
Winpak 38.16 82.3% 2,480 2,212 4.9% 921 196 21.2% 22.0x 20.4x 11.0x 11.3x 10.6x 74.2% (1.5x)
Median 87.4% $4,768 $6,053 2.9% $4,081 $571 16.1% 16.9x 15.2x 11.0x 10.3x 9.5x 74.2% 2.1x
Mean 88.0% $5,663 $7,807 3.1% $4,763 $767 16.4% 17.7x 16.0x 11.4x 10.3x 9.7x 69.1% 2.1x
Labels
Avery Dennison Corporation $118.15 95.5% $10,389 $11,980 6.2% $7,150 $950 13.3% 20.1x 18.3x 13.1x 12.6x 11.9x 75.2% 1.5x
CCL Industries 49.85 93.9% 8,819 10,298 17.9% 3,897 813 20.9% 21.4x 19.7x 14.2x 12.7x 12.1x 69.7% 1.9x
Multi-Color Corporation 63.35 70.6% 1,295 2,763 26.4% 1,760 301 17.1% 17.2x 14.5x 15.7x 9.2x 8.8x 68.0% 8.7x
Median 93.9% $8,819 $10,298 17.9% $3,897 $813 17.1% 20.1x 18.3x 14.2x 12.6x 11.9x 69.7% 1.9x
Mean 86.7% $6,834 $8,347 16.9% $4,269 $688 17.1% 19.5x 17.5x 14.4x 11.5x 10.9x 71.0% 4.0x
Paper and Paperboard
International Paper Company $59.59 89.0% $24,607 $35,049 0.8% $22,877 $4,225 18.5% 12.6x 11.3x 9.7x 8.3x 8.0x 61.5% 2.8x
WestRock 65.76 91.9% 16,775 23,388 12.9% 16,366 2,830 17.3% 16.8x 14.9x 10.7x 8.3x 7.9x 62.7% 2.9x
Mondi 26.21 92.6% 9,624 14,683 7.5% 9,396 1,931 20.6% 13.3x 12.8x 8.1x 7.6x 7.2x 65.8% 0.9x
Packaging Corporation of America 119.20 90.9% 11,247 13,603 5.7% 6,784 1,428 21.0% 15.8x 14.2x 10.1x 9.5x 9.1x 73.8% 1.8x
Smurfit Kappa Group 35.00 93.7% 8,302 11,826 7.2% 11,079 1,703 15.4% 12.2x 11.7x 8.8x 6.9x 6.7x 64.3% 2.5x
DS Smith 6.61 87.2% 7,057 8,601 12.6% 8,714 1,108 12.7% 14.1x 12.7x 11.1x 7.8x 7.4x 53.3% 2.4x
Graphic Packaging Holding Company 15.31 91.5% 4,742 6,981 14.0% 6,168 1,007 16.3% 18.2x 15.4x 9.9x 6.9x 6.5x 63.1% 3.1x
KapStone Paper and Packaging Corporation 34.89 99.7% 3,398 4,874 7.1% 3,426 492 14.4% 19.0x 15.7x 12.1x 9.9x 9.5x 65.6% 3.6x
P. H. Glatfelter Company 20.41 85.6% 892 1,272 (0.6%) 1,636 180 11.0% 14.8x 12.4x 9.5x 7.1x 6.5x 1.0% 2.7x
Median 91.5% $8,302 $11,826 7.2% $8,714 $1,428 16.3% 14.8x 12.8x 9.9x 7.8x 7.4x 63.1% 2.7x
Mean 91.3% $9,627 $13,364 7.5% $9,605 $1,656 16.3% 15.2x 13.5x 10.0x 8.0x 7.6x 56.8% 2.5x
Rigid
Ball Corporation $39.95 92.4% $13,985 $20,890 12.3% $11,325 $1,887 16.7% 17.2x 14.8x 10.4x 11.1x 10.3x 72.4% 3.2x
Owens-Illinois 21.56 83.2% 3,517 8,460 4.9% 7,104 1,392 19.6% 7.7x 7.2x 7.2x 6.1x 6.0x 62.3% 4.1x
RPC Group 11.08 80.1% 4,505 6,083 29.3% 5,343 879 16.4% 11.3x 10.5x 9.9x 6.9x 6.7x 56.9% 2.4x
Silgan Holdings 28.45 87.5% 3,140 5,662 5.3% 4,394 618 14.1% 13.7x 12.5x 10.0x 9.2x 8.8x 69.1% 4.4x
Median 85.4% $4,011 $7,272 8.8% $6,224 $1,135 16.6% 12.5x 11.5x 10.0x 8.0x 7.8x 65.7% 3.7x
Mean 85.8% $6,287 $10,274 12.9% $7,042 $1,194 16.7% 12.5x 11.3x 9.4x 8.3x 7.9x 65.2% 3.5x
Overall Median 88.0% $5,161 $7,720 6.4% $5,343 $890 16.6% 16.3x 14.3x 10.3x 9.2x 8.6x 66.5% 2.8x
Overall Mean 88.4% $7,203 $10,196 8.0% $6,797 $1,154 16.7% 16.0x 14.4x 10.8x 9.2x 8.7x 63.8% 2.8x
PAGE |
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW (6)
7
NET DEBT / LTM EBITDA
3-YEAR EBITDA CAGR (2015 – 2018E)
AVERAGE EBITDA MARGIN (2018E) FREE CASH FLOW CONVERSION (2018E)
TOTAL ENTERPRISE VALUE / 2018E EBITDA
3-YEAR REVENUE CAGR (2015 – 2018E)
PACKAGING
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
PUBLIC COMPARABLES (30-DAY ROLLING AVERAGE OF MEDIAN TEV / LTM EBITDA)
3.1%
16.9%
7.5%
12.9%
Diversified / Specialty
Labels
Paper and Paperboard
Rigid
6.0%
18.7%
9.9%
19.2%
Diversified / Specialty
Labels
Paper and Paperboard
Rigid
16.4%
17.1%
16.3%
16.7%
Diversified / Specialty
Labels
Paper and Paperboard
Rigid
69.1%
71.0%
56.8%
65.2%
Diversified / Specialty
Labels
Paper and Paperboard
Rigid
10.3x
11.5x
8.0x
8.3x
Diversified / Specialty
Labels
Paper and Paperboard
Rigid
2.1x
4.0x
2.5x
3.5x
Diversified / Specialty
Labels
Paper and Paperboard
Rigid
Median
Current 3-Year 5-Year
Diversified / Specialty 11.0x 10.9x 9.9x
Labels 14.2x 9.9x 7.6x
Paper and Paperboard 9.9x 8.6x 8.1x
Rigid 10.0x 8.4x 7.6x
Total Packaging 10.3x 9.3x 8.7x
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
16.0x
Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18
Paper and Paperboard Diversified / Specialty Rigid Labels
PAGE |
Date Target Target Business Description Acquirer
Pending Albéa Albéa provides tubes, dispensing systems, and rigid packaging solutions for a
variety of end markets across the world.
PAI Partners
Mar-18 EcoPack EcoPack produces integrated packaging and paper products primarily for the
food sector.
DS Smith
Feb-18 H. Erben H. Erben supplies packaging and machinery to the wine, beer, and spirits markets. Berlin Packaging
Feb-18 SupplyOne SupplyOne manufactures custom corrugated products, plastic thermoforming trays
and clamshells, and custom pressure-sensitive labels.
Wellspring Capital
Feb-18 Scholle IPN Equipment
Scholle IPN offers specialized equipment and support for filling, sealing, and testing
of flexible packaging.
Airopack Technology
Feb-18 WS Packaging WS Packaging provides labels and packaging solutions for the food and
beverage, consumer packaged goods, and pharmaceutical markets.
Platinum Equity
Jan-18 Foam Fabricators Foam Fabricators designs and manufactures custom molded protective foam
solutions and OEM components.
Compass Diversified Holdings
Dec-17 Tray-Pak Corp. Tray-Pak offers thermoformed packaging supplies. Graham Partners
Dec-17 IntraPac IntraPac designs and manufactures specialty rigid packaging solutions. ONCAP
Nov-17 Shore Plastic Technologies
Shore Plastic Technologies offers injection mold design, project engineering, and
mold and process validation serv ices.
Comar
Oct-17 International Paper / N. America Cons. Packaging Bus.
International Paper's North America consumer packaging business produces
paperboard and paper-based foodserv ice products.
Graphic Packaging
Oct-17 Brook & Whittle Brooke & Whittle manufactures premium prime label solutions. Snow Phipps
Oct-17 Tekni-Plex Tekni-Plex develops and manufactures packaging materials, medical compounds
and precision-crafted medical tubing solutions.
Genstar
Sep-17 Ring Container Ring Container manufactures PET and HDPE plastic packaging and containers. MSD Partners
Aug-17 PAX Corrugated Products
PAX Corrugated designs and manufactures corrugated boxes, specialty boxes,
corrugated display containers, and other corrugated packaging.
Georgia-Pacific
Aug-17 Hanna Group Pty Ltd.
Hanna manufactures folding cartons for the beverage, food, confectionary, and
healthcare sectors.
WestRock Co.
Jul-17 Constantia Labels GmbH
Constantia produces plastic labels for leading drink manufacturers. Multi-Color Corp.
Jul-17 Boxmore Packaging (Pty) Ltd.
Boxmore provides plastic packaging products such as bottles, plastic containers,
jars, closures, and lids.
ALPLA Werke Alwin Lehner GmbH & Co. KG
Jun-17 Salbro Bottle, Inc. Salbro manufactures and distributes plastic and glass bottles and lids. AEA / TricorBraun, Inc.
SELECT M&A ACTIVITY (6,9)
8
PACKAGING
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
Energy, Power & Infrastructure
IndustrialsHealthcare & Life Sciences
Transportation & Logistics
Aerospace, Defense & Government
Services
Business Services
Building Products & Materials
Technology, Media & Telecom
Specialty Distribution
Consumer
PAGE |
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Industrials
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PACKAGING
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
Harris Williams & Co. has a broad range of industry expertise, which creates powerful opportunities.Our clients benefit from our deep-sector experience, integrated industry intelligence andcollaboration across the firm, and our commitment to learning what makes them unique. For moreinformation, visit our website.
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HARRIS WILLIAMS & CO.
10
PACKAGING
1. US Energy Information Administration
2. Bureau of Economic Analysis
3. Eurostat
4. Federal Reserve Economic Data
5. University of Michigan
6. Factset
7. The Economist
8. Pro Food World
9. Mergermarket
Harris Williams & Co. (www.harriswilliams.de) is a preeminent middle market investment bank focused on the advisory needs of clients worldwide. The firm has deep industry knowledge, global transaction expertise, and an unwavering commitment to excellence. Harris Williams & Co. provides sell-side and acquisition advisory, restructuring advisory, board advisory, private placements, and capital markets advisory services.
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DISCLOSURES
SOURCES
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018