Industry Overview and Growth Potential · 1 day ago · 4 Electricity consumption is gradually...

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Industry Overview and Growth Potential

Transcript of Industry Overview and Growth Potential · 1 day ago · 4 Electricity consumption is gradually...

Page 1: Industry Overview and Growth Potential · 1 day ago · 4 Electricity consumption is gradually growing amid the country’s instability Electricity Consumption, Resilience Growth

Industry Overview and Growth Potential

Page 2: Industry Overview and Growth Potential · 1 day ago · 4 Electricity consumption is gradually growing amid the country’s instability Electricity Consumption, Resilience Growth

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This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute or form whole or part of any offer, invitation or solicitation by or on behalf of the Company for sale or

subscription of or solicitation or invitation of any offer to or recommendation to buy or subscribe for any securities of the Company, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or

be relied on in connection with any contract, commitment or investment decision in relation thereto (“Securities”) in Thailand, the United States or any other jurisdictions. Any

recipient considering a purchase of Securities is hereby reminded that any such purchase should be made solely on the basis of the information contained in a final offering

document (which may be different from the information contained in this presentation ) and subject to the selling restrictions set out therein. No public offering of the Securities will

be made in the United States or in any other jurisdiction outside of Thailand where such an offering is restricted or prohibi ted. This presentation should not be construed as legal,

tax, investment or other advice. The information contained herein does not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular

investor, and should not be treated as giving investment advice.

In addition, this presentation contains certain financial information and results of operation, and may also contain certain projections, plans, strategies, and objectives of the

Company, that are not statements of historical fact which would be treated as forward looking statements that reflect the Company's current views with respect to future events and

financial performance. These views are based on a number of estimates and current assumptions which are subject to business, economic and competitive uncertainties and

contingencies as well as various risks which are in many cases beyond the control of the Company, and which may change over t ime and may cause actual events and the

Company's future results to be materially different than expected or indicated by such statements. No assurance can be given that future events will occur, that projections will be

achieved, or that the Company's assumptions are correct. Such forward‐looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and accordingly, the actual results, financial

condition, performance or achievements of the Company may differ materially from those anticipated by the Company in the forward looking statements. The recipient is cautioned

not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements.

In providing this presentation, the Company does not undertake to provide any recipient with access to any additional information or to correct any inaccuracies herein which may

become apparent.

Disclaimer

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Company Core Competitive Advantages

Financial Highlights

Company OverviewI

IV

III

Table of Contents

Industry Overview and Growth Potential II

Key TakeawaysV

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Electricity consumption is gradually growing amid the country’s instability

Electricity Consumption, Resilience Growth Throughout Country Crisis

Source : Global Energy Statistical 2018

Industry Overview and Growth Potential

World Electricity Consumption

Thailand Electricity Consumption VS SET index

Unit: tWh

Unit: tWh

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

0

100

200

300

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

- Red Shirt took

over the

Ratchaprasong

- State of

Emergency

announced by

Thai Gov’t

- Bomb at

Ratchaprasong

- Major

flooding

around

Bangkok

Metropolitan

Area

- Flooding attack

the Southern

part of

Thailand

- Year of GDP

Curtailment

- Anti-Gov’t by

PDRC

- Bangkok

Shutdown

- Military

Government

in action

- Coup d’etat

- High market

volatility due

to domestic

unprecedente

d negative

factor

- Certain

market

volatility with

improved

market

condition

- Uncertainty

from interest

rate hike by

FED

- A crisis in the

sub-prime

mortgage

market in USA

(Hamburger

Crisis)

- Red Shirt start

protesting and

stormed a hotel

in Pattaya that

was the venue

for ASEAN

summit

SET Index

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Paris Agreement: Around 88% of the world have ratified or acceded to the Agreement. Thailand government has ratified the agreement.

EV Revolution: EV trend is coming with 1) Fossil fuel vehicle bans 2) Renowned automakers are making promises on EV

Announced end

sales of gas and

diesel cars by 2040

Announced end

sales of gas and

diesel cars by 2040

Parliament voted

through motion to

end all gas and

diesel car by 2025Plans to sell only 100% EV or hybrid/electric onward

Source : Paris Agreement, Climate change, Vox

Global and Domestic Trend to Support Renewable Energy

World Zero Carbon: Government around the world is collaborating to aim for net zero carbon by 2050.

Sample

Approach from

Countries and

States:Target Date: 2030

Status: In law

Target Date: 2050

Status: In law

Target Date: 2050

Status: In law

Target Date: 2045

Status: Executive Order

Ratified

Signed

Not Signed/Withdrawing

Norway France California United Kingdom

FranceUnited Kingdom Netherlands

Industry Overview and Growth Potential

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Growth: 17.90%(2012-2020)

Growth: 12.00%(2018-2030)

Growth: 19.80%(2010-2035)

Growth: 10.50%(2019-2030)

Cambodia Laos

Myanmar Vietnam

Electricity Consumption Growth Rate

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International and Domestic Trend to promote and support Renewable Energy

Paris Agreement

Set a global goal to reach zero carbon emissions in the second half of the century

Constitution of the Kingdom of

ThailandReformation Plan of the Country PDP 2018 Proposal

Thailand

✓ Section 72(5): To promote energy

conservation and cost-effective use

of energy, as well as to develop and

support the production and use of

alternative energy to enhance

sustainable energy security.

✓ Thus, current and ongoing

government policies and actions

shall comply with this Section.

✓ Set up biomass quality and pricing

standard and develop market

✓ Initiate database of biomass

producer

✓ Study/develop technology to

transform biomass feedstock for

value added

✓ Encourage firm contract for biomass

power plant PPA

✓ Recently, Ministry of Energy has

informed that there could be

adjustment to the PDP 2018 where

renewable portion could increase

even further.

✓ A professor from Thailand’s leading

institution has proposed an opinion

of increasing the renewable portion

up to 40%.

Global and domestic trend are in the same direction to promote and support “Renewable Energy”

Industry Overview and Growth Potential

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Constitution of the Kingdom of Thailand, 20 years National Strategy, Country

Reformation and Government Commitment to Support Renewable Energy

According to Constitution of the Kingdom of Thailand, Section 6 Number 5: Thailand will develop and support the production and

usage of renewable energy for the security and sustainability of the future of Thai energy

• Government will develop

and support the creation of

Bio-Circular Green

Economy. Allowing

communities and farmers

to partake in the creation

of power and electricity.

• Develop a middle platform

for buying and selling of

electricity (P2P).

• Decrease CO2 emission

• Solve PM 2.5 problem at

the source

• Support systematic,

hygienic, and proper

management of Municipal

Solid Waste (MSW).

• Develop and support the

growth of fuel crops in

Thai agriculture.

• Develop contract farming

for fuel crops.

✓ Increase in megawatts

from Biomass and Biogas

power plants.

✓ ACE can sell left over

capacity directly to user.

✓ Biomass power plant is the

solution to PM 2.5

problem by buying

agricultural waste from

farmers and therefore

prevents the farmers from

burning the waste in their

fields.

✓ ACE is a model and leader

in the operation of MSW

power plant in Thailand

with the ability to process

80% moisture content

waste as well as being the

only developer and

operator of the zero

discharge MSW power

plants in Thailand.

✓ Official support from

governments mean more

fuel in the market for ACE.

Source : Constitution of the Kingdom of Thailand

1 2 3 4 5

Industry Overview and Growth Potential

Bio – Circular Green

EconomyPeer to peer CO2 emission and PM 2.5 Solving MSW crisis

Contract farming for fuel

crops

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Total Societal Impact(TSI) and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)

Biomass Power plant

Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Power plant

Contribute to the Paris Agreement Decreasing greenhouse gas emission.

Future Potential To provide base-load to grid in place of conventional energy

• Saves government’s spending on putting down forest fires and farm fires

• Saves government’s spending on PM 2.5 related health problems such as respiratory

complications, masks distributions and water spraying in cities, to from PM 2.5 particle.

• Prevents economic loss from the decrease in tourism due to PM 2.5 problems.

Solves PM 2.5 problem at the root

• Additional income to farmers

• Stabilize income for farmers under market uncertainty → reduce empty subsidies that the

government has to give out

• Distribution of revenue to grassroots : Shift from LNG imports to purchasing fuel from individual Thai

farmers

Positive Economic and Societal

Impact

GDP Contribution/1 1.8 Billion THB / year / 9.9 MW biomass power plant

Source: Thailand Energy Academy

Contribute to the Paris Agreement Decreasing greenhouse gas emission.

Future Potential To provide base-load to grid instead of conventional energy

Solves MSW mountain problems Save healthcare and environmental spending for the government from problems caused by MSW in

landfills

Industry Overview and Growth Potential

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Total

Electricity

Capacity as of 2017

Total

Electricity

Capacity in 2037

New installing

capacity for

the next 20 years

Retiring

capacity in

the next 20 years

Renewable37%

Combined cycle23%

New or replacement power plants

15%

Imports 10%

Saving programme7%

Cogeneration4% Lignite or coal-fired

3%

Pumped storage hydropower1%

According to the Power Development Plan (PDP) 2018 hearing, Renewable Energy is targeted to contribute the largest portion, or 37%,

of the total new increased capacity by 2037.

Potential MW during 2017-2037 PDP 2018 New Installing Capacity for the Next 20 Years (MW)

Unit : MW

1

Renewable Energy Contribute Largest Portion (37%) of Increased Capacity

Source: Power Development Plan (PDP) 2018

Remark: /1 Based on crude oil used for in-land transport data in 2018 (EPPO) converted into Barrel of Oil Equivalent (BOE) with 35% cusion

Potential

MW from

EV/1

Total

Electricity

Capacity

with EV

Potential in 2037

+56,431 -25,310

126,640+49,429

77,211

46,090

Largest portion of increased capacity (37%) come from renewable Up to ~105,000 Potential MW within 20 years

PDP2018 With EV Potential/1

Industry Overview and Growth Potential

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Total

Electricity

Capacity as of 2017

New installing

capacity for

the next 20 years

Renewable37%

Combined cycle23%

New or replacement power plants

15%

Imports 10%

Saving programme7%

Cogeneration4% Lignite or coal-fired

3%

Pumped storage hydropower1%

According to the Power Development Plan (PDP) 2018 hearing, Renewable Energy is targeted to contribute the largest portion, or 37%,

of the total new increased capacity by 2037.

Potential MW during 2017-2037 PDP 2018 New Installing Capacity for the Next 20 Years (MW)

1

Renewable Energy Contribute Largest Portion (37%) of Increased Capacity

Source: Power Development Plan (PDP) 2018

Remark: /1 Based on crude oil used for in-land transport data in 2018 (EPPO) converted into Barrel of Oil Equivalent(BOE) with 35% cusion

+56,431

46,090

Largest portion of increased capacity (37%) come from renewable

+56,431 MW

Unit : MW

Total

Electricity

Capacity as of 2017

Total

Electricity

Capacity in 2037

New installing

capacity for

the next 20 years

Retiring

capacity in

the next 20 years

Unit : MW

Potential

MW from

EV/1

Total

Electricity

Capacity

with EV

Potential in 2037

+56,431 -25,310

126,640+49,429

77,211

46,090

Up to ~105,000 Potential MW within 20 years

PDP2018 With EV Potential/1

Industry Overview and Growth Potential

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Unit: MW

Renewable energy portion will move from 26% in 2018 to 46% in 2037

% Electricity Capacity by Source of Total Capacity for 2018 and 2037 Electricity Capacity of Each Renewable Source for 2017 and 2037/1

% Installed Capacity

2037

2018

Renewable Energy will provide 46% of Thailand’s Electricity by 2037

Remark : /1 Excluding retiring capacity in the next 20 years

Source: Power Development Plan (PDP) 2018

Industry Overview and Growth Potential

2017 2037 2017 2037 2017 2037 2017 2037 2017 2037

389%

211%

48%

252%

254% 178%2,573

1,659

5,632

590175 306

12,573

5,155

8,357

2,075

619 852

Solar Biomass Hydro Wind Waste Biogas

2017 2037

73%

26%

1%

48%

46%

6%

Renewable

Conventional

Others

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4,507

12,790

23,682

1,291 1,119 2,091

22,027

39,740

35,140

4,544 3,958 5,822

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Solar Biomass Hydro Wind Waste Biogas

Looking at GWh contribution to grid, Biomass is the largest contributor to renewable energy growth in Thailand

Electricity contribution/1 of Each Renewable Source of from 2017 to 2037/2

Biomass : The largest renewable energy contributor in Thailand

Remark : /1 Assume 365 days, 24 hours and specific capacity factor of each plant type for electricity contribution calculation

/2 Excluding retiring capacity in the next 20 years

Source : Power Development Plan (PDP) 2018

Average capacity factor of each power type from EGAT, EIA

88%

Capacity factor applied to each plant type

Unit: GWh

20% 48% 25% 73% 78%

Industry Overview and Growth Potential

20372017 20372017 20372017 20372017 20372017 20372017

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85.2

209.5 210.5 212.2240.15

449.57 449.57

1,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024

449.57

Continuous growth with existing PPA along with future potential growth supported by favorable government renewable energy policy

Existing and Pipeline of Company’s MW/1,/2

ACE’s Historical, Current and Future Growth

Source: Power Development Plan 2018

Remark: /1 Including APP’s capacity MW of 9.9, Currently, APP’s shareholders sent LOI for APP share purchase proposal to ACE /2 Estimated timeline : Currently, Arbitration result states that PEA has to return PPA to ACE and with the assumption that normally power project’s construction period is approx. 2 years

Existing, Under-Development and Pending for Development projects

Future Projects to reach company goal

Industry Overview and Growth Potential

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Continuous growth with existing PPA along with future potential growth supported by favorable government renewable energy policy

Existing and Pipeline of Company’s MW/1,/2

348 377 481 834

1,221 1,530

1,920 2,117

2,891 2,950 3,176

3,376 3,376

105 139 174

209

244

244

335

399

514 546

546

546 546

29 57

86

114

143

171

200

229

257 286

314

343 371 6

21

35 44

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Biomass

Biogas

MSW

Industrial Waste

2025 – 2037 Contract Capacity MW according to PDP 2018

Future Growth

Under-Development and Pending for Development

Source: Power Development Plan 2018

Remark: /1 Including APP’s capacity MW of 9.9, Currently, APP’s shareholders sent LOI for APP share purchase proposal to ACE /2 Estimated timeline : Currently, Arbitration result states that PEA has to return PPA to ACE and with the assumption that normally power project’s construction period is approx. 2 years

Industry Overview and Growth Potential

212 212 212 212 212 212 2 209 209 209 209

289 579

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Future Growth acc. to plan

Existing

1000

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196

76

Won the largest portion of MW in the 2017 SPP Hybrid Bidding (Renewable)

Unit : MW

2017 Biomass Bidding

Proven by Recent Bidding

Total PPA Capacity available for Bidding: 272 MW

Potential Upcoming Community Biomass/Biogas PPA/1

Total Potential Capacity available for Bidding: 4,125 MW

Largest bidding winner out of 42 candidates in the 2017 SPP Hybrid

Bidding (Renewable)

1

ACE

Other Bidding Winners in Biomass

ACE got 28% share in Biomass bidding winner

MW

MW

2,997

1,128

Biomass

Biogas

MW

MW

Source : ERC, PEA

/1 Community Power Plant Project Concept, PEA

Industry Overview and Growth Potential

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2 Operational Expertise &

Economy of Scale

✓ Lower plant heat rate = decrease fuel

consumption by up to 30%

✓ Artificial Intelligence, IoTs and Big

data for cost control and operations

improvement

✓ Environmentally friendly

✓ Proven track record in building and

running 19 successful powerplants

projects

✓ Continuous operational improvements

✓ Economy of scale

✓ Strong feedstock purchasing team

✓ Last supply chain network and efficient

(over 40 years in the making)

1 Advance Technology

3 Relationship with Key

Stakeholder

✓ Major shareholders’ plantation

business can support long-term

feedstock development plan

✓ Strong & long-term relationship with

communities and farmers

✓ Strong relationship with lender

ACE’s 3 Core Value Represent Competitive Advantage to Secure New PPAs

R&D

Sustainability

✓ Fuel crops from major

shareholders’ plantation

business

✓ New Biomass Fuel Types

✓ Machineries and improved

design

✓ Feed stock security

✓ Financial security

✓ Community support

Knowhow

✓ Low O&M cost

✓ Strong & capable team of professionals

ready to handle new projects.

Industry Overview and Growth Potential