Industry Overview and Developments
20
Industry Overview and Developments • Ralph Groschen Ralph Groschen • Senior Marketing Specialist Senior Marketing Specialist • Minnesota Department of Agriculture Minnesota Department of Agriculture • [email protected] • www.mda.state.mn.us www.mda.state.mn.us Riverland Community College December 6, 2006 Kasson, MN
description
Industry Overview and Developments. Ralph Groschen Senior Marketing Specialist Minnesota Department of Agriculture [email protected] www.mda.state.mn.us. Riverland Community College December 6, 2006 Kasson, MN. Includes plants under construction as of September 2003. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Industry Overview and Developments
Industry Overview and Developments
• Ralph GroschenRalph Groschen• Senior Marketing SpecialistSenior Marketing Specialist
• Minnesota Department of AgricultureMinnesota Department of Agriculture• [email protected]
• www.mda.state.mn.uswww.mda.state.mn.us
Riverland Community CollegeDecember 6, 2006
Kasson, MN
% of US Ethanol Market
MGP Ingredients
3%
VeraSun3%
Cargill3%
Aventine 4%
ADM32%
Abengoa3%
New Energy3%
Includes plants under construction as of September 2003
New Projects
HAWAII
Minnesota Ethanol:Production, Producer Payments, and Economic Impacts
(Fiscal Year: July 1-June 30)
$42
$89 $91 $101 $115
$204
$276$254
$352
$511
$629$587
-$14 -$22 -$28 -$35 -$35 -$34
300
252220
190
124112
69514138351711
$29
-$11-$3 -$5 -$4 -$5 -$6-$2
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Mill
ion
Ethanol Production (Million Gallons)
Total Economic Impacts (Million $)
Producer Payments (Million $)
Minnesota’s Ethanol Plants
Plant (Start date) Original capacity (millions) 2004
• Marshall (1987) 10 40• Morris (1991) 3.5 22• Corn Plus (1994) 15 40• Heartland (1995) 10 37• Al-Corn (1996) 10 34• CVEC (1996) 15 42• MN Energy (1997) 12 18• Ethanol 2000 (1997) 12 30
• Pro-Corn (1998) 12 40• Cornerstone (1998) 12 21• CMEC (1999) 20 22• Exol (1999) 13 40• North Star 2005 50 50• Total 210 454
Yields
Yields
1.67 Btu of 1.67 Btu of fuel ethanolfuel ethanol
(USDA)(USDA)
0.805 Btu 0.805 Btu of gasolineof gasoline
100% more energy w/ Ethanol
1 Btu 1 Btu of of
fossil fossil energyenergy
Coal, oil, Coal, oil, or gasor gas
DDGs for 40 million gal. plant energy?
Total Process Energy
Total Electrical Energy
Total Energy Required
Total Energy from DDGs
1,440,000,000,000
508,000,000,000
1,948,000,000,000
1,954,000,000,000
Market Development
• 5 billion gallons used today, mostly in E10. • E85 is future possibility for market
expansion. (MN is way ahead nationally)• May also develop other markets:
– 1. Aviation Fuel?– 2. Diesel Fuel (Sweden)– 3. E20 (Gov’s initiative)– 4. RFG area O2 caps may be lifted
Where do we go from here?
• Maintain existing industry through transition• “Cellulose” (biomass) to ethanol and other fuels.• Minnesota plants are taking the initiative.• Pathways
– 1. Use biomass fuels for process energy. (MN)– 2. Enzyme/Fermentation DOE focus. – 2. Thermochemical
• A. Various thermochemical reactions (Pyrolysis- Synthetics)• B. Gasification “Syngas” and “biorefinery process” (MN)
What’s Possible?
Year Biomass
YieldTons/acre
Acres
Planted(millions)
Cellulosic
Ethanol(billion gals)
Corn
Ethanol(billion gals)
Total
Ethanol(billion gals)
2012 8.9 5 4.4 12.0 16.5
2017 12.5 19 24.8 14.6 39.4
2027 23.1 49 124.4 14.6 139.0
Source - Vinod Khosla 70% of today’s gasoline usage?
Fossil Energy Ratio (FER) = energy in fuel/fossil energy input
10.31
1.36
0.980.81
0.45
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Cell. EtOH Corn EtOH Coal Gasoline Electricity
Michael Wang, Center for Transportation Research,Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory
Yields
Yields
3.2 Btu of 3.2 Btu of BiodieselBiodiesel
(USDA & DOE)(USDA & DOE)
0.843 Btu 0.843 Btu of Diesel of Diesel
FuelFuel
280% more energy w/ Biodiesel
1 Btu 1 Btu of of
fossil fossil energyenergy
Coal, oil, Coal, oil, or gasor gas
Minnesota Biodiesel
• 2% required in Minnesota since 9/29/05• 3 plants, 63 million gallons production capacity• High blends & B100 used in summer by some• Filter problems in Winter ‘05 & ’06 blamed on
biodiesel• Some “off-spec” biodiesel was shipped• Everybody used B2, most had no problem• Other potential causes of filter problems were
not discussed
Diesel Filter Problems• Jan. 2006 Cummins Diesel Bulletin
• Diesel filter life has shortened steadily since Winter of 2004.
• Major causes of plugging are:– “Asphaltine” polymers duel to high fuel temp– “Biological organism” growing in fuel– “Engine lubricating oil” mixed in fuel
• Engine design, pipeline additives & used oil.
– Biodiesel fuel mixed at “high levels” (B20)– “Solid Particle contaminants, (Dirt)”
Questions?
