Industrials 21.8% Dalton Kizuna Fund Consumer 21.0%€¦ · announced b a. d% year-on-year sales...
Transcript of Industrials 21.8% Dalton Kizuna Fund Consumer 21.0%€¦ · announced b a. d% year-on-year sales...
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Dalton Kizuna Fund September 2017 Newsletter
Fund Description
The Dalton Kizuna Fund is an equity fund that invests opportunistically in Japan. The Fund strives to
buy shares in companies with good businesses run by management with a strong alignment of interest
with shareholders, at prices that reflect a significant margin of safety to intrinsic value. The Fund is ex-
pected to be a highly concentrated portfolio (no more than 20 companies) of strong conviction ideas. In
addition to performing onsite due diligence and rigorous fundamental analysis, the investment team
engages in active collaboration with managements and directors of portfolio companies in order to en-
courage actions that will lead to revaluation in the equity market.
“Kizuna” is a traditional Japanese word meaning the strong bonds between people; we use the word to
reflect our aspiration of pursuing greater good for all stakeholders through our investment practice.
Private and Confidential — Not for Public Distribution
FUNDS AT A GLANCE AS OF
SEPTEMBER 2017
Lead Portfolio Manager …... James B. Rosenwald III
Investment Style……………….…...Concentrated Equity
Index.. …………………..………...MSCI Daily TR Net Japan
Inception Date ….……...................................……..Mar ‘17
Fund Assets (September 30)….………….....……….$28 mil
Asian Equity Assets (September 30)…...………$3.2 bil**
Firm Assets (September 30)…………………..….……$3.5 bil
Net Asset Value/Share (September 30).........$1,042.06
Minimum Investment ….……….……………....…..…...$1 mil
High Watermark …………..……………………..……………...Yes
Structure……… ...................................... Master-Feeder
Administrator…………..….………………….Northern Trust
Custodian…………….………………………….Northern Trust
Auditor …………………..…......PricewaterhouseCoopers
Liquidity .. ………………………..Annual (1-yr Lock-up)***
Management Fee………………………………….….....…..…1.0%
Incentive Fee…………………………………….….….....…..…20%
CONTACT INFORMATION
Telephone……………….…..…………….…………..424.231.9100
Email .............................. [email protected]
1601 Cloverfield Boulevard – Suite 5050 N
Santa Monica, California 90404
www.daltoninvestments.com
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
All investments involve risk including the loss of
principal. Please see final pages for performance
disclosures.
**Asian equity assets include all assets managed by
James B. Rosenwald III, which include the assets
from the Dalton Kizuna Fund, several other Pan-Asia
and Japanese separate accounts and other products.
***Liquidity terms are more restricted for hard-to-
value or illiquid “special securities.” The manager has
the authority to designate up to 10% of the fund in
special securities, and these investments must be
held to realization of investment. Please see fund
documents for more information.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year MSCI
Japan
2017 -0.44% 1.28% -2.06% 0.87% 1.47% 2.12% 0.95% 4.21% 8.97%
MONTHLY PERFORMANCE (%) NET OF FEES*
TOP 5 LONG POSITIONS SECTOR BREAKDOWN
Fund Performance (Net of Fees)*
Company Sectors % Equity
Shinsei Bank Ltd Financials 9.3%
Kadokawa Dwango Corp Consumer Discretionary 4.5%
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd Industrials 4.4%
Toa Corp/Hyogo Consumer Discretionary 2.6%
Plathome Co Ltd Information Technology 1.3%
Company % Equity Sectors
Shinsei Bank Ltd Financials 8.6%
Plathome Co Ltd Information Technology 8.4%
Kadokawa Dwango Corp Consumer Discretionary 7.8%
Macnica Fuji Electronics Information Technology 6.9%
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd Industrials 6.7%
0.9%
4.2%
2.0%
9.0%
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
10%
Latest Month Since Inception
Dalton Kizuna
Fund
MSCI Daily TR Net
Japan
21.8%
21.0%
15.3%
14.2%
12.5%
15.2%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Industrials
Consumer
Discretionary
Information
Technology
Materials
Financials
Cash
Sector Exposure
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Commentary
Performance Update
The Dalton Kizuna Fund (“the Fund”) returned
+0.9% net of fees this month compared to +2.0% for the
MSCI AC Daily TR Net Japan Index (the “the Index”). In
the third quarter of 2017, the Fund increased by +4.61%
while the Index increased by +3.97%.
Portfolio Overview
Seven months have passed since the launch of the
fund. We have continued to carefully deploy capital
over the latest quarter and are happy to report that
approximately 85% of capital is now allocated to 16
portfolio companies as of the end of September. We
added to existing positions in C Uyemura, Kadokawa,
and Macnica Fuji, and established new positions in
Aizawa Securities and Mitani Corporation.
Aizawa Securities is a family-run brokerage firm
with broad coverage in Asia and US equities, and also
makes direct investments primarily in public securities.
The key features of the company that make it a
compelling investment in our view are (1) triple-net
valuation, meaning that the market capitalization is
below net-liquid asset value, (2) significant
strengthening of its core businesses via the recent
merger, and (3) farsighted and focused owner-
operators. We have met several times with the owner-
operators of Aizawa in order to build mutual trust and
will continue to exchange ideas on the long-term
strategies of Aizawa including the deployment of
capital.
Mitani Corp. started as a simple domestic
wholesaler of concrete and petroleum and remains
competitive in its core business. Meanwhile, it has been
transforming itself into an investment house over the
past 15 years, generating a quarter of the company’s
profit today through its investments. The company’s
relentless pursuit for return on invested capital is
evidenced in its average 20% ROIC for the past five
years, steadily improving from a 2% ROIC 15 years ago,
demonstrating the success and foresight of
management led by the current president Mr. Mitani.
Although the company’s dividend and repurchase yield
have been 3.3% for the past three years, net financial
assets have been accumulating over the past decade,
amounting for approximately two thirds of the market
cap today. Mr. Mitani has remarked that he has been
embarrassed not to find enough business investment
opportunities and instead has chosen to return capital
to shareholders, which he emphasises is the result of
their disciplined approach to making investments. The
illiquidity of this company’s stock has caused some
price volatility recently, and we have taken the
opportunity to establish a position in company when it
trades at below one times price-to-book.
Major contributors for the quarter included Plat’
Home and Macnica Fuji Electronics Holdings. Plat’
Home, a leading supplier of the IoT gateway,
announced 65.8% year-on-year sales growth in core
products in its latest quarterly earnings. Since 2017, the
company has benefited from more IoT projects heading
towards full implementation from its previous
demonstration/experiment phase. Continued progress
in the second half of this year through next year is
expected. Macnica Fuji, the leading distributor of
semiconductor products and cyber security solutions in
Japan, announced better than expected year-on-year
earnings which helped to boost the stock price during
the quarter. Strong results were driven by a recovery in
its semiconductor business. Macnica is discussed in
detail below in the “Stock Highlight” section.
Detractors for the quarter included Shinsei Bank
and Mitsubishi Heavy. While there was nothing
fundamentally negative in the quarterly results of
Shinsei Bank, the stock price, like that of many other
Japanese banks, is heavily influenced by US interest
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Commentary
rates. Additionally, the company failed to announce a
share buyback during the quarter even as the CEO
continued to communicate his desire to improve
company policies related to shareholder returns.
Underperformance of Mitsubishi Heavy, the largest
producer of heavy machinery in Japan, was due
primarily to uncertainty around the contingent
liabilities of legacy projects, such as 1) an escalating
dispute with Hitachi over the loss generating power
plant project in South Africa, and 2) additional delays in
the development of a regional jet aircraft. While these
legacy projects have discouraged investors, we maintain
our confidence in the leadership and capital allocation
discipline of current management and felt reassured by
recent meetings with management. We believe that the
company remains well-positioned to benefit from the
global growth in demand for electricity and in the
aerospace and defense industries.
TOPIC: Behavioral Economics
On October 3rd, US private equity firm Bain Capital
announced that it would acquire Asatsu DK (an ex-
portfolio company) through a tender offer. While we
are not involved in the stock at this time, it may be
worthwhile to review the behavioral economics that led
up to the deal. The ROE of Asatsu had been historically
disappointing to investors as the capital efficiency of
the company was compromised by cross-shareholdings
with the WPP Group in the UK. We addressed that
issue with top management a couple of years ago and
sold our stakes to lock in profits after the
announcement of a special dividend, partly because we
lacked confidence that management would address the
capital efficiency issues. The board continued not to
take action to improve ROE and resolve the cross-
shareholding issue, and Group CEO Mr. Ueno’s
approval rating suffered a shocking decline from 89.1%
to 59.5%. We strongly suspect that that decline was a
significant catalyst behind Bain Capital’s bid to take
Asatsu DK private. Asatsu has since announced their
intention to end its capital and business alliance with
WPP.
We saw a similarly dramatic change at Panasonic
after a sharp decline of the CEO’s approval rating to
66.7% in 2016. The board agreed to the abolition of a
takeover defense plan, the nomination of a high profile
turnaround manager as an Independent Director, and
the nomination of the former head of Microsoft Japan
to become a representative director. The approval rate
showed a dramatic improvement to 95.8% in 2017 as a
result of those initiatives.
While we frequently encounter skepticism related
to corporate governance reform in Japan – that it’s too
slow, too superficial, the current culture is too
ingrained, etc., – we have no doubt that the more
aggressive voting behavior of Japanese investors is
having a big impact on CEOs. In response, we have
made two adjustments to our investment process – (1)
we have started to use the list of “Poor score” CEOs as a
screening tool and have already identified a couple of
companies for further analysis, and (2) we may use our
own voting rights more strategically going forward
including collective engagement with other
shareholders.
Source: CLSA
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Commentary
Stock Highlight:
This quarter, we would like to introduce Macnica
Fuji Electronics Holdings, the leading distributor of
semiconductor products and cyber security solutions in
Japan and one of our core positions. We will
review "Alignment of Interest", "Good Business", and
"Margin of Safety" as our raison d'etre lies in our
disciplined application of those criteria.
Alignment of Interest: Each of the heritage
companies, Macnica and Fuji Electronics, were among
our favorite owner operator companies. In 2015,
they formed a holding company to become the largest
Japanese distributor of semiconductors with 20%
market share in Japan. It is unusual for owner
companies with big egos to make a decision to
completely integrate with another company when they
are profitable and growing. When these two owner
families decided to merge together, it was clear that
their laser focus on growing shareholder capital led to a
conclusion that faster growth could be achieved by
combining the two companies. Today, the businesses
are operated by a group of professional managers with
international backgrounds under the oversight of the
Chairman from the Kamiya Family (Macnica, 35%
ownership) and a Vice Chairman from the Ikisu family
(Fuji, 5.2%).
Good Business: For decades, the company has
shown a track record of consistent growth in its top line
and bottom line despite the saturation of the domestic
semiconductor market. This success can be attributed
to three factors, the first being the company’s
engineering support capabilities in helping clients to
implement complicated products, such as FPGA (Field
Programmable Gate Array). As a result, the company
survived the intense consolidation that swept the
industry. Secondly, Macnica has successfully grown its
Asian business through both organic and non-organic
ways. Overseas sales have been growing at 23% p.a. in
the past 5yrs to a whopping 49% of total sales today
(compared to merely 16% in 2008). Thirdly, the
company has become a leading distributor of cyber
security solutions in Japan.
The last factor is the most important to the
company’s future as the network/security segment is far
more profitable, faster growing, and less working-
capital intensive than the company’s other businesses.
Last year, the contribution of the cyber security
segment exceeded that of its semiconductor business
for the first time in the company’s history. The business
model of Macnica is to have a group of cognoscenti
looking for new technologies based in US, and then
obtaining exclusive distribution contracts several years
before those technologies become well known and
widespread. Macnica is the dominant or sole distributor
of rapidly growing global vendors such as Fire Eyes,
Symantec/Blue Coat, Splunk and McAfee thanks to that
business model. That business advantage is still alive
today as Macnica continues to receive “unofficial offers”
from start-up companies, desiring to grow their
businesses in Japan.
Margin of Safety: Until recently, the company was
traded at a "Triple-net" valuation, meaning that the
market capitalization was below net-liquid asset value.
Even after the stock price increased last quarter
(making Macnica the best contributor for the quarter),
the stock still trades at a very small premium to book
value. We believe the valuation is attributable to the
historically poor capital efficiency of semiconductor
businesses (i.e. heavy working capital burden of
receivables and inventories). However, that working
capital is mostly in the form of credit issued to blue
chip companies with little to no credit/inventory risk.
In assessing the margin of safety, we see the working
capital as "less liquid cash."
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Commentary
Also, we believe that the security & network
business has the potential to completely change the
valuation metrics of the company. It generates double
digit operating profit margin and ROA, and average top
line growth in the past 5yrs has been around 20%.
Cyber security companies tend to be far more richly
traded in the market compared to the valuation of
Manica Fuji, which trades at a small premium to its
liquidation value.
Charts: Profit Contribution by Network (Security)
Surpassed Trading Business for the First Time Last Year
Charts: OPM & ROA – Macnica and Macnica Networks
Are Totally Different Animals
Source: Company Report
Outlook (Politics)
While politics does not make a fundamental impact
on our investment activities, we think it might be
worthwhile sharing our views on the recent dynamics
within Japanese politics. Below are our closing thoughts
for this quarterly letter.
On September 28th, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
made a widely anticipated announcement for snap
elections to be held on the 22nd of October. At the
time, the Nikkei polls showed the Liberal Democratic
Party (LDP) with a commanding lead of 44% vs. a mere
8% for the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ).
The rising tensions related to North Korea, twice
launching missiles over Japan, also seemed to lend
support in favor of the conservative LDP.
However, out of the blue, popular Tokyo Governor
Yuriko Koike announced the establishment of a new
political party, the "Party of Hope", presenting a
challenge to the Prime Minister Abe’s LDP-Komeito
ruling bloc and an alternative to the failed DPJ. In a
stunning move, DPJ leader Maehara made a formal
decision to ask all DPJ members in the Lower House to
join the Party of Hope, go independent, or retire.
Strengthened by defectors from the DPJ, Koike is the
biggest wild card in Japanese politics today. Her new
party’s goals to “reset” Japanese politics “in order to
fully protect our (Japan’s) international competitiveness
and national security” support the amendment of the
constitution and collective reform.
Today, the LDP and the coalition partner Komeito
have a super-majority (322 seats out of 475) in the
Lower House. We expect they will most likely end up
securing the majority in the elections slated for October
22nd because Koike lacks the time and funding to field
enough candidates to have a chance of capturing
enough seats to break the majority. Nonetheless, the
emergence of a new conservative party has the potential
to deeply impact Japanese politics in the future as the
political scenario may change to encompass two major
conservative parties (LDP, Party of Hope), and a smaller
wing of Liberals (part of DPJ, Social Democratic Party,
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Commentary
and Communist Party).
While most political observers are focused on the
potential loss of seats that may be suffered by Abe and
the LDP-Komeito ruling bloc in the October 22nd
elections, we would put forward the possibility that Abe
could end up as a beneficiary of political realignment
because of the opportunity to collaborate more closely
with Koike in pursuing structural reform. It's clear
that Abe and Koike have almost identical beliefs and
policies – specifically, amendment of the constitution,
and collective reform – and both are aggressive
reformers. As Koike’s party is being formed from
scratch, she has the huge advantage of not suffering
from any "Shigarami" (longstanding fetters of the past),
vested interests and superficial obedience. Given that it
is exactly that type of resistance within the LDP that is
acting as the bottleneck in effecting structural reforms,
the emergence of the Party of Hope in the elections
could act as the tailwind for Abe and his structural
reforms, especially if the new party obtains meaningful
numbers of seats in the election.
Hope our wishful thinking turns out to be real.
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Disclosure This document has been prepared for qualified investors, is provided for informational purposes only, and does not constitute a solicitation of any shares in any
investment vehicle managed by Dalton Investments LLC. Such solicitations can only be made to qualified investors by means of the private placement
memorandums, which describe, among other things, the risks of making an investment. Additionally, this presentation does not constitute investment advice of
any kind.
All of the information in this document relating to Dalton Investments LLC or its affiliates (collectively, “Dalton” or the “Firm”) is communicated solely by Dalton,
1601 Cloverfield Boulevard, Suite 5050 N, Santa Monica, CA 90404, regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). SEC registration does not
imply SEC endorsement. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information, or with respect to the terms
of any future offer of transactions conforming to the terms hereof. Certain assumptions may have been made in the analysis which resulted in any information and
returns/results detailed herein. No representation is made that any results/returns indicated will be achieved or that all assumptions in achieving these returns
have been considered or stated. Additional information is available on request. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change
without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on market conditions. Unless otherwise indicated, figures presented are preliminary,
unaudited, subject to change and do not constitute Dalton’s standard books and records.
Individual portfolio account returns and holdings within a referenced Dalton composite may vary substantially for such factors including, among others, account
specific restrictions – e.g. whether currency investments are permitted, timing of transactions, contributions, withdrawals, and market conditions at the time of
investment.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE VALUE OF THE INVESTMENTS AND THE INCOME FROM THEM CAN
GO DOWN AS WELL AS UP AND AN INVESTOR MAY NOT GET BACK THE AMOUNT INVESTED. THESE INVESTMENTS ARE DESIGNED FOR
INVESTORS WHO UNDERSTAND AND ARE WILLING TO ACCEPT THESE RISKS. PERFORMANCE MAY BE VOLATILE, AND AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE
ALL OR A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF ITS INVESTMENT.
Please note that neither the Funds/Composites nor the Investment Manager/Investment Advisor complies with the requirements of the Alternative Investment
Fund Managers Directive (“AIFMD”) of the European Union. No direct or indirect offering or placement of shares by or on behalf of the Funds/Composites or the
Investment Manager may be made to or with investors in member states of the European Union in breach of either the applicable requirements under the AIFMD
or the private placement regime in each relevant member state. You are receiving this presentation either because (a) you are an existing investor and we are
sending you an update to discharge our obligation, or (b) you have previously requested for submission of such information. If neither of these apply to you, please
kindly ignore this presentation and reply to [email protected] with the subject “AIFMD distribution list review” as soon as possible so that
we can remove you from our relevant distribution list in the future.
Any specific securities referenced herein are holdings as of the date identified in the document and any performance information relates only to the period covered
by this document. No inferences should be made as to the profitability of specific positions overall.
Returns present hypothetical performance (the “Hypothetical Returns”) for a hypothetical $1,500,000.00 investment (the “Initial Investment”) made at the inception
of the Fund (the “Hypothetical Investor”). The Gross-of-Fees Hypothetical Returns are calculated by applying the Fund’s actual cumulative gross-of-fee returns
which include all trading expenses, withholding taxes, custodial fees (if applicable) and other administrative fees but exclude accruals and payments of all
management and performance fees to the Hypothetical Investor’s Initial Investment. The Hypothetical Investor’s Returns assume no subscription or redemption
and reinvestment of all dividend income. Net-of-Fees Hypothetical Returns are calculated, in reference to any applicable high water mark, by deducting a model
1% management and 20% performance fees (the “Model Fees”) from the Gross-of-Fees Hypothetical Returns. The Model Fees represent the current highest
management and performance fee schedule of the Fund. Information regarding year to date and annual Performance Results is compounded. The Hypothetical
Results shown do not represent the results of any actual investor in the Fund. Investment results for each investor will vary from the Hypothetical Results shown
herein due to, among other factors, differing investment dates and additional contributions or withdrawals. Actual fees may differ due to various factors including,
but not limited to, account size. Additional information regarding the Firm’s fees is available upon request and may also be found in Dalton Investments LLC’s
Form ADV Part 2. Performance is expressed in US Dollars. To compute currency exchange rates, the Fund uses Bloomberg at 4PM EST close while the Benchmark
uses WM Reuters at 4PM GMT close, which may result in differing exchange rates.
The Fund’s benchmark is the MSCI Daily Total Return Net Japan Index (MSCI Japan (USD), symbol: NDDUJN) (the “Benchmark”) and is compiled by Morgan
Stanley Capital International, Inc. It is a total return, free float-adjusted, capitalization-weighted index that is designed to track the performance of Japanese
securities listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Osaka Stock Exchange, JASDAQ and Nagoya Stock Exchange. Net total return indices reinvest dividends after the
deduction of withholding taxes, using (for international indices) a tax rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation
treaties. For comparison purposes, Benchmark returns do not reflect transaction costs, investment management fees or other fees and expenses that would reduce
performance in the Fund. It is not possible to invest in the Benchmark. The Fund has held and is expected to continue to hold securities that are not included in the
Benchmark and the Firm makes no representations that the Fund is comparable to the Benchmark in composition or element of risk involved.