Indus River System Model - IIASA...Indus River System Model: A planning tool to explore...
Transcript of Indus River System Model - IIASA...Indus River System Model: A planning tool to explore...
Mobin-ud-Din Ahmad, Joel Stewart, Geoff Podger
Managing Systems Under Stress: Science for Solutions in the Indus Basin3rd Indus Knowledge Forum, IIASA Laxenburg Austria1st June, 2018
LAND AND WATER
Indus River System Model: A planning tool to explore Water-Energy-Food nexus for Pakistan
The Sustainable Development Investment Portfolio (SDIP) is an Australian government initiative with the goal of increasing water, food and energy security in South Asia, targeting the poorest and most vulnerable, particularly women and girls.
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7 partners - CSIRO, ACIAR, ICE WaRM, ICIMOD, IFC, SAWI/WB, TAF
Indus SDIP Pakistan | https://research.csiro.au/sdip/projects/indus/
Background2012 Water Sector Task Force Report (WSTFR) outlined a range of significant pressures and issues facing the Indus basin in Pakistan
Requirement for a repeatable system/evidence base to quantify the major water balance terms and then objectively plan for:
o Climate Changeo Infrastructure (USD$26b proposed investment)o Developmento Water sharing according to interprovincial Water
Apportionment Accord
Action area 5 (Building Knowledge and Capacity), recommends the implementation of Australian water management technologies and associated capacity building
Indus SDIP Pakistan | https://research.csiro.au/sdip/projects/indus/3 |
• Pakistan High Commission, Canberra• Federal and State Minister for Water and Power • Minster for Planning Development and Reform • Ministry of Water and Power (Ministry of Water Resources):
– Secretary, Additional Secretary, Joint Secretary– WAPDA: Chairman, Member Water and senior officers– IRSA: Chairman and members– PCIW: Commissioner and Additional Commissioner– FFC: Chairman and senior officers
• Punjab Irrigation Department: Secretary and senior officers• Sindh Irrigation Department: Secretary and senior officers• Pakistan Meteorological Department• Minister for Climate Change • Minister for Food Security and Chairman PARC• Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources: Chairman and
other senior officers• Ms Marvi Memon MNA and Chairperson Benazir Income Support
Program
Government Interactions
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GoP and GoA project agreement signedIndus SDIP Pakistan | https://research.csiro.au/sdip/projects/indus/
SDIP Pakistan – Key activities• Integrated water resource assessment, data management,
modelling and capacity building to support national water planning and policy development.
• Scenarios and outlook of agricultural production, food security, water use and livelihood outcomes under changing climate, increasing population and infrastructure development.
Indus SDIP Pakistan | https://research.csiro.au/sdip/projects/indus/5 |
New Infrastructure
Water sharing and
gender
Crop and energy
production
ClimateHistoric and Future Precipitation, Temperature and ET
Rim Station Inflow
Kabul, Indus, Jhelum, Chenab,
Rav Sutlej
Rive
r Sys
tem
Mod
el
Seasonal Flow Forecast
Surface Water Allocation
1991 AccordProvincial Sharing
Water UseIrrigation
HydropowerUrbanSalinity
Environment
Groundwater
Water Delivery
Expected inflow
Indus River System Model
Towards the centralised hydrological data management
Pilot HYDSTRA implementation at WAPDA to support building and maintaining a consistent, best practice time series hydrological data archive
Indus SDIP Pakistan | https://research.csiro.au/sdip/projects/indus/6 |
The Indus River System Model Represents IBIS by describing both physical and
water sharing systems
Takes flows at rim stations and simulate IRSA’s implementation of the 1991 Interprovincial Water Apportionment Accord at a daily time step
Undertakes provincial allocation of the seasonally forecast water
Distributes the waters to canal commands while considering the storage volumes, inflows from different tributaries, canal priorities, transmission losses and channel constrains
Simulates daily river flows, crop production and system losses 1990-2017
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Key resultsMoWR is convinced with the approach and ability of the model to represent Indus basin irrigation system model and to investigate implications for water sharing between provinces under alternative dam operations for hydropower and irrigation
Indus SDIP Pakistan | https://research.csiro.au/sdip/projects/indus/8 |
Infrastructure Planning Scenario Example(Illustration Purposes Only with assumed specifications & operations)
Indus SDIP Pakistan | https://research.csiro.au/sdip/projects/indus/9 |
MAF/yr Water deliveries
Historic Baseline 92.9
Additional Storage 99.2
Change from Historic 6.4
% change from Historic 6.8%
• In the near future, available water may decrease slightly due to Tarbela infilling, but can increase with a new dam
• Significantly more power can be generated with a new dam upstream of Tarbela
• Operational rules associated with new dams have significant impact on overall results
Storage Historic Baseline (GWh) Balancing Tarbela (GWh)
Tarbela 14,411 17,321
Ghazi Barotha 6,727 6,862
Chashma 987 1,007
New Indus Storage(assumed capacity as DB) 20,024
Total 22,125 45,214
Water deliveriesHydropower generation
Agricultural Water Demand and Yield Gap Analysis
• Time-series Agricultural Demand (1981-2012)
• Built technical capacity of UAF staff to quantify crop yield gaps and associated causes using a cropping systems model.
Indus SDIP Pakistan | https://research.csiro.au/sdip/projects/indus/10 |
Looking beyond water quality data into decision-making contexts for the Ravi and Sutlej rivers in PakistanCSIRO and PCRWR work highlighted the most polluted reaches in the river Ravi and Sutlej as well as drains and highlighted the need for better cross-sectoral collaboration to open up new options and pathways for improving water quality to achieve SDG’s
Grigg, N, M Ahmad, S Imran, G Podger, M Kirby, M Colloff 2018. Water quality in the Ravi and Sutlej Rivers, Pakistan: a system view. CSIRO: CSIRO; 2018. csiro:EP18122.
Indus SDIP Pakistan | https://research.csiro.au/sdip/projects/indus/11 |
Socio-Economic and Gender
• Manchar Lake Gender & Livelihood Study
• Designed a project component to look into the role of women participation in agricultural activities in the Punjab rice-wheat zone
• Initiated discussion with PIDE to involve post-graduate students (preferably female) to examine the impact of agricultural policies on land use changes, cropping pattern and agricultural production of major crops
Indus SDIP Pakistan | https://research.csiro.au/sdip/projects/indus/12 |
Next Steps
Final technical review and acceptance (2017)
Model testing and scenario development with project partners (2018)
Scenario implementation for strategic integrated water management decision support
New Infrastructure
Water sharing and
gender
Crop and energy
production
Scenario Analysis:• Elicitation and configuration with key
stakeholders• Exploring impacts of infrastructure development
and climate change on water security• Water sharing scenarios for agriculture,
hydropower and environment under current and future climates while considering livelihood aspects
• Supporting the national water planning and policy initiatives
Indus SDIP Pakistan | https://research.csiro.au/sdip/projects/indus/13 |
Pakistan National Water Policy• National Hydrological Data Management and sharing (22. Information
Management)• Recognition to use scientific knowledge for water negotiations (24. Research)• Re-building WAPDA technical capacity (29. Capacity Building of Water Sector
Institutions)• Using model for infrastructure planning and operation (8. Impact of Climate
Change, 24 Research)• Groundwater management (10. Irrigated Agriculture, 16. Groundwater)• Demand management (26. Demand Management)• Land and water productivity improvement (28. Main Targets and Investment
Requirements)• Water quality consideration (12. Drinking Water and Sanitation, 16.
Groundwater, 21. Quality Management)• Recognition of Women role related to WASH (18.3)
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https://research.csiro.au/sdip/indus/
Thank you
CSIRO LAND AND WATER
Dr Mobin-ud Din AhmadProject Leader – SDIP Indus Pakistan Principal Research ScientistGPO Box 1700, Canberra ACT2601Australia
t +61 2 6246 5936e [email protected]
https://research.csiro.au/sdip/indus/
AcknowledgementProject Partners:Policy Partners: Pakistan Ministry of Water Resources (WAPDA, IRSA, PCIW, NESPAK, CEA, FFC) and Provincial (Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan) Irrigation departments.
Delivery Partners: Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR), University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Sindh Agriculture University Tandojam, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology Jamshoro, NESPAK