INDONESIAN VISION 2045 · 2010 2045 Demography and Urbanization (SP 2010) 238.5 million Population...
Transcript of INDONESIAN VISION 2045 · 2010 2045 Demography and Urbanization (SP 2010) 238.5 million Population...
INDONESIAN VISION 2045
Minister of National Development Planning/Head of the National Development Planning Agency
Presented at Business Breakfast Forum Financial ClubJakarta, 25 September 2018
20 Sovereign, Progressive,
Indonesia
45 Just and Prosperous
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Protecting all Indonesian citizen and the whole homeland of Indonesia
Improving public welfare
Educating citizen’s life
Implementing world order based on independence, eternal peace, and
social justice
Drafts of Indonesia’s Vision and Dream 2015 – 2085To accelerate the manifestation of Indonesia’s vision, President Joko Widodo initiates Indonesia’s Dream 2015-2085
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Global Demography
World Urbanization
Emerging Economies Role
International Trade
International Finance Geopolitical Change
Climate Change
Technology
Natural Resources Competition
Middle Income ClassWorld population becomes 9.45 billion (Asia 55%). Global demographic trend promotes urbanization. migration influx. and ageing population.
66 percent of world population lives in cities with 95% increase happening in emerging economies.
Total developing countries output accounts for 71% of world output with Asia as the biggest stimulant of 54%.
Global trade grows at 3.4% annually. Developing countries become the global trade and investment axis with 6% growth per year.
Domination of world currency shifts from US Dollars to multi currency. Emerging economies financial assets projected to exceed developed countries.
GlobalMegatrend
2045
The proportion of middle and upper income class exceeds 84% or 8.1 billion people. which is dominated by Asia and Latin America.
The increase of Asian economy and African population triggers competition to obtain natural resources. Technological advancement increase the efficiency of natural resources exploitation.
Technological change trend is dominated by ICT. biotechnology and genetic engineering. wearable devices. renewable energy. automatization. and artificial intelligence.
The challenge of global warming increases (more frequent extreme weather condition and long-term climate change). Global temperature increases 3-3.5% without initiative to reduce emission.
The increase of China’s role. Middle East’s vulnerability. and the increase of new class and determining group.
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Development Pillar of Indonesia 2045
Workforce Reform KCommitmentTowards the Environment
Strengthened Energy and Water Security
Free and Active Foreign Politics
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT AND MASTERY OF SCIENCE & TECH
SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
EQUITABLE DEVELOPMENT NATIONAL RESILIENCE AND GOVERNANCE
Impartial Acceleration of Indonesian Citizen’s Education
Increased Contribution of Science and Technology in Development
Increased Community’s Health Level and Life Quality
Increased Role of Culture in Development
Substantial Democracy
Institutional and Bureaucratic Reform
Enhanced National Justice System and Anti-Corruption
Free and Active Foreign Politics
Integrated and Equitable Infrastructure Development
Increase Investment and Economic Competitiveness
Acceleration of Industrial and Tourism Dev
Maritime Economic Development
Reinforced Food Security and Farmer’s Welfare
Acceleration o f Poverty Eradication
Equal Opportunity and Equitable Distribution of Income
Equitable Regional Development
Indonesian citizens are excellent, cultured, and expert in science tech
Progressive and sustainable economy
Inclusive and equitable development
Democratic, powerful, and virtuous country
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Towards High Income Country andOne of the Highest GDP in the world
Well-implemented structural reformation and world economic growth is relatively high
Baseline ScenarioBusiness-As-Usual
Low world economic growth or global crisis that has great effect on national economy
High Scenario
5.7 % annual GDP growth
USD 23,199 GDP per capita in 2045
Ranked 7th in the world for GDP
Escape from Middle-Income Trap in 2036
5.1 % annual GDP growth
USD 19,794 GDP per capita in 2045
Ranked 8th in the world for GDP
Escape from Middle-Income Trap in 2038
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High Economic Growth ScenarioHigh-Income Country in 2036 and the 7th Highest GDP in the world in 2045Middle-Income Class Increases to 70 percent in 2045
2015 2020 2030 20402035 20452025
3,3774,546
6,3058,804
12,233
16,877
23,1992036
Escape fromMiddle-Income Trap
Middle-Income Class Other Income Class
2010 2020 2030 2040 2045
Indonesia’s Middle-Income Class (million people)GDP per capita (USD)
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194
85
186
145
151
187
126
223
96
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Demography and Urbanization2010 2045(SP 2010)
238.5 million Population 318.7 million
69.8 year Life Expectancy 72.8 year
11.9 million Senior Citizen (65+) 42.8 million
49.9% Urban Population 69.1%
2045(SUPAS 2015)
318.9 million
75.5 year
44.9 million
72.8%
Dependency ratio reaches its lowest level in around 2030. In the long-term, TFR is maintained to be balance in around 2.1.
Population growth triggers urbanization and the growth of small-and-middle-sized cities throughout Indonesia. Meanwhile big cities and pre-urban area will create mega-urban.
90%
In 2035, almost 90% population in Java lives in the city, concentrated in Jakarta-Bandung (up to 76 million people)
= Projection based on SP 2010
= Projection based on SUPAS 2015
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46
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50
52
54
56
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20452040203520302025202020152010
50.148.4
47.346.9
47.247.748.6
50.5
46.3 45.5 45.7
47.0
49.0
51.3
53.4
Lowest dependency ratio around2030 (SP 2010) and 2022 (SUPAS 2015)
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Technology DevelopmentTechnology is growing faster and bringing changes to all areas of development and people's
Future technology trends: digital technology (mobile internet, automation, cloud technology), technology that reduces physical and distance limitations (IoT, transportation and distribution, addictive manufacturing / 3D printing, nano technology), energy technology (renewable, solar, wind, nuclear, bio, geo-thermal) and health technologies (genetics, medicine and recovery, health services).
Besides increasing efficiency and new opportunities, technological advances have an impact on labor requirements. Jobs that are routine, manual, and cognitive will decrease.
Indonesia will utilize technological progress for development by minimizing disruption.
E-commerce turns conventional trade into electronic system.Industry 4.0 integrates production processes virtually based on cyber and artificial intelligence.
Blockchain, a combination of AI, big data and IoT, is able to verify real time financial transactions so that no third parties are needed.Genetic engineering improves quality of life.
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IHuman Development and Mastery ofScience and Technology
Indonesian citizen’s quality increases through equally higher level of education; powerful culture; better level of health, life-expectancy, and living quality; and advancement of science and technology.
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Accelerating Equitable Education for All
Increasing Education Quality
2015 2016-2025 2026-2035 2036-2045
Years of Schooling 12Year
Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) in Tertiary Education
37.7% 50% 70% 90%
29.9% 35% 50% 60%
8.3Year
10Year
12Year
Vocational, Entrepreneurship, and Character Education
Equal Quality and Services in Education
Community’s Role in Educational Development
Teacher Professionalism and Learning Methods Transformation
School and Literacy Culture
Education Development Strategy
Enhancement of citizen’s education level to create high
quality human resources
Labor Force with ≥ Senior High School Education
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Increased Role of Culture in Development
Culture Development
Target
Pancasila as Life Philosophy of the Nation
Appreciation of Diversity
Powerful Nation’s Character
Local Culture –Regional Identity
Education as Intercultural Mediator
Maritime Culture and Knowledge
Increasing role of culture in development through the capitalization of virtuous values of the nation’s culture and the development of work ethic
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Increased Contribution of Science and Technology in Development
Science and Technology Strategy
Cooperation between Government, Industry, and University
Science and Technology Adoption and Implementation
Science and Technology Capability and Independence
Innovation Fund Development
0.08% 1.5-2%2015 2045
Gross ExpenditureOn R&D
Indonesia is directed towards one of science development center in Asia and in the world, especially in Maritime Studies, Biodiversity Studies, Material Technology, and Disaster and Mitigation Studies.
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Increased Community’s Health Level and Life Quality
Comprehension of Healthy Lifestyle Behavior
Responsive Disease Prevention and Control
Health Technology Advancement
Facility and National Health Insurance are in Order and Sustainable
Health Development Strategy
• Free from Nutrient Deficiencies from 2025.
• Longer Life Expectancy accompanied with healthier life.
• Number of illness, disability, and mortality because of illness decreases.
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Workforce Reform
01
2016 - 2025
Reformation towards more flexible and adaptive labor market.
Increased quality of labor education and training through relevance enhancement with industrial needs.
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2026 - 2035
Institutional empowerment and competency-based education and training access expansion.
Relevance enhancement, especiallyin engineering and technology.
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2036 - 2045
Consolidation of training and certification system in all economic sector.
Universal expansion of National Social Security System (SJSN) scope.
Stages of Workforce Reform
• Changes in economic structure and technological progress affect the structure of the workforce.
• The labor market needs to be flexible and adaptive.
• Labor productivity is improved and technological progress is utilized to accelerate economic development
• Unemployment is maintained on natural rate (3-4%).
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.8% 78%Male 82.7% 90%Female 48.9% 65%
Labor Force (millions people) 122.4 169.9Open Unemployment Rate 6.2% 3 – 4%Employment in Agriculture 32.9% 13.5%Labor Force with Tertiary Education 39.3% 90%
2015 2045
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Sustainable Economic Development
Indonesia becomes a developed country and one of the world’s largest economy, driven by investment and trade, industry, tourism, maritime, and services; as well as supported by reliable infrastructure and strong resilience on food, water, and energy. Commitment towards the environment is maintained for sustainable development.
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Improved Investment ClimateInvestment climate is increased towards one of the best in the world
Enhancement of Labour-Intensive, Export-oriented, and High Value-added Sectors
Investment Acceleration on Advanced Technology and Highly Innovative Sectors
Sustainable Investment and Ensuring Security on Investment Abroad
EoDB ranking 35Investment to GDP ratio
34.1 percent
EoDB ranking 20Investment to GDP ratio
36.1 percent
EoDB ranking 10Investment to GDP ratio
37.8 percent
2015 -20252025 –
20352035 –
2045
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Open and Just International Trade
Transformation of Export Structure from Commodity to Manufacture and Service
Export of Goods and Services with High Value-Added
World-quality and Innovation-based Goods and Services
1.5%Market Share
World Rank
16th
1.7%Market Share
World Rank
13th
2.0%Market Share
World Rank
10th
2025
2035
2045
Enhancement of Export Regulation
Acceleration of Export Growth
Export Enhancement
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Industry as the Driver for Economic Growth
Enhancing Industrial
Development Pillar
Diversification and Increasing Value Added
Strengthening the Advanced
Manufacturing
Reinforcing Innovation Ecosystem
Enhancing Industrial
Adaptation
Enhancing Industrial
Sustainability
Industrial modernization focused on resource-based manufacturing industry cluster and industrial zone with integrated upstream-downstream supply and value chain. Industry is encouraged to be part of the global value chain (GVC).
Priorities of industry: food and beverage, textiles and apparel, automotive, electronics, and chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
Implementation of smart and sustainable manufacturing to boost national industry efficiency.
Industrial revolutions to 4.0 are adjusted with the characteristics of each industry.
20.8%GDP
21.4%GDP
22,3%GDP
23.4%GDP
24.6%GDP
26.0%GDP
Industry to GDP ratio
(2020) (2025) (2030) (2035) (2040) (2045)19
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Development of Creative and Digital EconomyIncreasing creative and digital economy contribution in development
Enhancement of the Structure of Creative and Digital Economy
Development of Creative Human Resource’s
CompetenceIncreased Scale of Export-oriented
Creative Industry
Enhancement of World-scale Creative
and Digital City/Cluster
2025
2035
2045
Creative and Digital Economy as Sources of Economic Growth
Creative and Digital Economy as Drivers of Innovation-based
Economy
Indonesia as One of theWorld-class Creative and Digital
Economy Centers
Target of Creative and Digital Economy’s Development
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Indonesia as Primary Tourism DestinationIndonesia’s diversity that includes more than 17 thousand islands, more than 300 ethnic groups, more than 700 languages, world heritage sites, as well as the 3rd biggest biodiversity is a great potential for tourism development
Development of Prime Destination
Increasing Competitiveness
Improving Tourism Diversity
Increasing Tourism Integration
Enhancement as Asia’s Primary Destination
Enhancement as World’s Primary
Destination
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
21.6 millions
31.8 millions
42.8 millions
57.5 millions
65.1 millions
73.6 millions
TotalInternational
Tourists
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Indonesia towards the World’s Maritime Axis
Indonesia is moving towards world’s maritime axis by developing accelerated maritime economy, strong maritime power, and strong maritime culture. The contribution of maritime economy to GDP increases from
6.4% in 2015 to 12.5% in 2045.
Maritime Economy: Increasing the role of maritime economy to around 12.5% of GDP in 2045 by focusing on (1) the development of efficient and effective marine connectivity, (2) sustainable and competitive fishing industrialization, and (3) inclusive maritime tourism.
Maritime Culture: Creating excellent quality of maritime human resources. innovation in marine technology. and strong maritime culture as the basis of maritime culture.
Maritime Power: Actualizing strong and capable maritime security and defense to face regional and global challenge.
12.5% of GDP
9.0% of GDP
6.4% of GDPContribution of Maritime Sector
Maritime Development Strategy
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Consolidation of Food Security andIncreasing Farmer’s Welfare
Integrative Policy from Upstream to Downstream
Increased Entrepreneurship and Farmer’s Institution
Increased Investment and Infrastructure that Supports Agriculture
Increased Productivity and Development of Maritime Agriculture
Increased Education Center and Agriculture Technology
Increased the Education of Agriculture Human Resources and Farmers
Food security that is independent and sustainable, carbohydrate and protein self-sufficient, and increased farmer’s welfare
Farmer productivity in 2045 increased to 4.5 fold compared to 2015
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Enhancement of Water Security
Integrated and sustainable management of lake, swamp, pond, river, and other land water
Improvement of land management along river basin area by involving the community
Development of processing and water quality enhancement technology that is cheap and environment-friendly
Campaign of “Keep, Preserve, and Save Water”
Forest and land rehabilitation along priority river basin area Development of
infrastructure to prevent erosion and
sedimentation
Improvement of hydrology, hydrometeorology, and
hydrogeology information system and development of river basin
area and water resources monitoring system
Implementation of water-use efficiency principles through
reduce, reuse, and recycle principles
Development of water resources
infrastructure
Development of city forest
Development of rain water harvesting
Water security is increased to support strategic sectors, disaster mitigation, andincrease community’s welfare
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Increased Energy Security
Bioenergy Water Geothermal Solar Others
Energy as development assets through increasing the role of Renewable Energy.
• Share of Renewable Energy final energy demand is increased to 30 percent in 2045.
• Power Plant installed capacity continue to increase until more than 430 GW.
• Electrification ratio 100 percent in 2020 and energy consumption is increased to 7,000 kWh per capita.
• Electrical infrastructure development implements archipelago concept.
• Fulfillment of energy needs that considers its impact on environment.
• The possibility of using nuclear energy if other energy sources do not meet.
CURRENTCONDITION
Natural Gas
Renewable Energy
Coal
Oil
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Commitment towards the Environment
Towards green economy, signed by 41% of emission reduction from baseline scenario, Environmental Quality Index > 80, and sustainable biodiversity utilization.
Greenhouse Gases Emission Reduction
Increased Water Quality
Increased Air Quality
Improvement ofLand Coverage Quality
Biodiversity as the Basic Asset of Development
Biodiversity-based National Pharmacy Industry
Carbon Sequestration Ability
Renewable Energy Development through
Local Bio-resources
Increase Biomaterial Industry
Environment Development Strategy
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Equitable Development
Equitable development expands with more income equality across all income-class, decreasing regional disparities, equitable infrastructure, as well as extreme poverty eradication.
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Acceleration of Poverty Eradication
• Inclusive economic growth (in all income quintile) bringspoverty rate towards zero (0.02 percent) in 2045.
• Extreme poverty (0.8 poverty line) is zero in 2040.
Poverty Rate per Province in 2015 and 2045
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0.000 – 1.000
1.001 – 2.500
1.501 – 5.000
5.001 – 7.500
7.501 – 10.000
10.001 – 15.000
15.001 – 20.000
20.001 – 30.000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045
Extreme Poverty (0.8 PL) Poor Vulnerable (1.2 PL)
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Income Equality
0.32
0.34
0.36
0.38
0.4
0.42
0.44
Scenario with Redistribution Intervention Scenario without Redistribution Intervention
• Income inequality falls to ideal level in 2035 and maintain at the safe level.
• Without equal income policy, Gini Ratio will increases towards 0.44 in 2045.
Early stage economic development will induce income inequality, but after a certain income level, inequality will decrease along with democratization and development of citizen’s welfare.
Kutznet’s Hypothesis
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Equitable Regional Development
6.2%PERYEAR
6.7%PERYEAR
8.3%PERYEAR
Kalimantan Sulawesi
7.6%PERYEAR
Papua
6.5%PERYEAR
Bali andNusaTenggara
5.3%PERYEAR
Jawa
5.7%PERYEAR
Sumatra
Maluku
30 Years Before 30 Years After
1983 2013 2015 2045
Java 53.8% 57.1% 58.3% 51.8%
Outside Java 46.2% 42.9% 41.7% 48.2%
KBI 82.5% 80.1% 80.5% 74.9%
KTI 17.5% 19.9% 19.5% 25.1%
Equitable regional development is increased by encouraging growth in the Eastern Region of Indonesia (KTI) while maintaining growth momentum in Java.
Papua
Bali. Nusa Tenggara &Maluku
Sulawesi
Kalimantan
Java
Sumatra
National Food Basis & Resources-based Economic Sector
International Tourism & National Fishery Basis
Food Industry Basis & Gate for KTI
Manufacturing Industry & National Energy Basis
Trade & Services Basis
New Industrial Basis & Gate to Asia Region
Regional Development Direction
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Equitable and Integrated Infrastructure Development
Infrastructure Development Direction:
Increasing Physical and Virtual Connectivity
Promoting Equitable Development between Regions
Legends
Main Road
Rail Road
Big/Medium City
Kota Pelabuhan
Aerotropolis
Dam/Water PP
Nuclear PP
Airport & Pioneer
Palapa Ring
Fulfilling Basic Infrastructure Access
Supporting Urban and Rural Development
Anticipation of Climate Change
• Finishing main road constructions in all islands.
• Rail-based transportation and High-speed Train to anticipate mega urban and urbanization.
• Air and sea transportation to support inter-region mobility and goods distribution.
• Sea transportation as the main element of maritime connectivity.
• Development of aerotropolis area.
• Fulfillment of digital and virtual connectivity for all community.
• Fulfillment of people’s access to basic infrastructure.
• Logistic cost in 2045 fell to 8% of GDP
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Strengthening National Resilience and Governance
National resilience and governance becomes stronger with better quality of democracy, institutional and bureaucratic reform, development of national justice system and anti-corruption, implementation of free and active international politics, and strong security and defence.
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Domestic Affairs
Substantial Democracy
Procedural / Transactional Democracy
Enhancing Political Parties and Regulations Capacity
Enhancing Democracy and Political Participation in Regions
Effective Presidential System
Effective House of Representative
Enhancing Political Constitution
Pancasila Revitalization
National Politics Enhancement Strategy
Indonesia’s democracy quality is increased towards substantial democracy, which is democracy that carries people’s aspiration
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Institutional and Bureaucratic Reform
Structure of Organization
Enhancement Institutional and Bureaucratic Reform to actualize:
a. The role and function of the government in achieving public interests;
b. Bureaucratic institution that is contextual and with proper function and size;
c. Effective, inclusive, participative, and supportive cross-sector governance; and
d. Bureaucratic institution that is reliable and modern with professional and adaptive civil servants.
Bureaucratic Feature
Governance Human Resources’ Culture and
ManagementOrganizational structure that are:• Adaptive,• Based on
issue/thematic,• Cross-sector,• People driven and
locally empowered, and• Responsive towards
international issue.
Inclusive governance and ICT-based . • Creative, systemic, and
evidence-based way of thinking that has global knowledge, inclusive, and able to manage change;
• High work ethic and productive; and
• Proactive service based on public’s needs.
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Development of Justice System and Prevention and Eradication of Corruption
Justice system development is directed to actualize a community with justice culture.
In 2045 all laws of colonial inheritance are replaced by national law
Prevention and eradication of corruption directed to implement anti-corruption community
Justice System Development Objective
Corruption Prevention and Eradication Objective
The integrity and competence of law enforcement and civil
servants
Civil servants and citizens who are compliant to law
Community that has justice culture
System improvement in various public service
Significantly decreasing corruption practice and
behavior, CPI=55-60
Anti-corruption communityCPI=60-65
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Foreign Affairs
Indonesia is still conducting international politics that is free and active to build just world governance, becomes a developed and independent country, and one of the most influential country in Asia Pacific.
International politics is also directed to implement World Maritime Axis roadmap and establish regional arrangements including maintaining ASEAN’s centrality.
The implementation of free and active international politics
Indonesia’s increased role
in regional, global, OIC, and
UN
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Defense and Security
Defense and security is increased to actualize:a. Inclusive community
orderb. Strong defensec. Dignified human
security
Inclusive Community Order
Strong National Defense
Dignified Human Security
Indonesian identity beyond ethnic, tribe, religion, race, and group identity.
Participative community order based on fairness and equality in unity and national insight.
National defense power based on smart power, which has expenditure of 1.5% GDP.
Strong military force equipped with advanced technology armament.
Defense industry that is progressive and healthy, as well as being the main actor in global supply chain.
Safely and peacefully living in Indonesia as civilized human based on the spirit of respect
Human security that integrates with national security based on humanitarian values and partnership with all elements of the nation.
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