Indonesian National Carbon Accounting System (INCAS): advancing towards the development of Tier 3 MRV system

to estimate historic and future GHG fluxes for the land sector

By INCAS Team

Presented by:Haruni Krisnawati

International Seminar on “Environmental Management and Development in Indonesia”

Serpong, 8 October 2015

Ministry of Environment and ForestryResearch, Development and Innovation Agency

Outline

• INCAS Overview

• Current Status

• General Approach

• Spatial Modelling

• Emissions Modelling

• Improvement Plan

What is INCAS?

A system for accounting GHG emissions and removals to support MRV requirements for the land sector in Indonesia, including REDD+ activities

MRV and policy/decision support tool

Basis for GHG inventories & international reporting

Track progress towards emissions reduction targets

Support sustainable land use planning, sustainable management of forests, watershed management etc.

INCAS Key Features

Systematic and nationally consistent GHG accounting system for the land sector

TACCC principles

Flexible approach to support multiple reporting requirements

Tier 3 ‘model-based’ MRV system

Use the best available data

Continuous improvement

Robust and repeatable

Current Status

Category Coverage (currrent version)

Land • All natural forests, timber plantations, and estate crops on deforested lands;

• All peat lands

Activity • Forest land (deforestation, forest degradation, sustainable management of

forest, enhancement of forest carbon stocks)

• Peat land (fire and biological oxidation)

Management/

event type

• Clearing (conversion of forest to other land uses, conversion of primary forest

to secondary forest, conversion of secondary forest to timber plantations),

• Logging (conventional logging, reduced impact logging),

• Fires (moderate/intense fires),

• Planting (by species)

Carbon Pool Aboveground biomass; belowground biomass;litter; woody debris; soil

Source of GHG CO2-e, CH4, N2O, CO, NOx

Period of actual emissions Annual (2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005,... 2012)

Extent National, subnational (34 Provinces)

• Endorsed by the Minister as a national platform for GHG accounting for the land sector

• Starting with forest and peat lands, will be expanded to other land uses

• Under R&D phase, will be operationalized

….

Just finished 1st phase of the development

INCAS Framework

QC/QA process is conducted for each step

Other domestic

reports

National

Communication

GHG

emissions and

removals by

land use,

activity, etc

(flexible

depending on

policy

question/

reporting

requirements

INCAS Spatial Modelling

Defining the area of change for each disturbance event or management regime that will be used for

modelling GHG emissions and removals

Spatial allocation of area subject to change

LANDSAT DATA (2000-2012)

Annual cover change

Forest Type Forest Function

SoilConcession

CropFire

BIOPHYSICAL DATA

Clearing

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-2010

2010-2011

2011-2012

Revegetation

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-2010

2010-2011

2011-2012

CA

RB

ON

AC

CO

UN

TIN

G M

OD

EL A

ND

TO

OL

Pre

dic

tin

g ca

rbo

n s

tock

s an

d c

arb

on

flo

w in

fo

rest

an

d p

eat

lan

dsy

stem

s

AREA OF CHANGE BY LAND USE AND ACTIVITY

GREENHOUSE GAS ACCOUNT

LAND MANAGEMENT DATA

Forest Modelling Approach

Spatial Allocation Areas

Deforestation Forest degradation Enhancement of forest carbon stocks SMF

2000 - 20012001 - 20022002 - 20032003 - 20042004 - 20052005 - 20062006 - 20072007 - 20082008 - 20092009 - 20102010 - 20112011 - 2012

INCAS GHG Emissions Modelling

REMOVAL

Non-CO2

emissions from surface

fire

Forest Emissions

and Removals

Carbon and N2O

emissions from mineral

soil

Peat fire

Biological oxidation &

Direct emissions of drained peat

Forest Emissions and Removals

Inputs:• Location of forest

disturbance

• Initial conditions (forest biomass & carbon)

• Forest growth and turnover rates

• Forest management events

Output:

• Estimate of carbon flows between different carbon pools and ultimately emissions and removals (Tier 3).

Burning

EVEN

T

Logging Clear Harvesting

Selective Harvesting

RIL

Conventional

Planting Species

% biomass affected?

Moderate Fire

Intense Fire

Land Conversion

Event

Emissions over time

Deforestation : Forest to other land

Deforestation : Forest to cropland

Forest degradation

Sustainable management of forest

Enhancement of forest carbon stocks

Example of the output...

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Emis

sio

ns

(tC

O2-e

q)

Mill

ion

s

Year

Mineral soil Peat Biological Oxidation Peat fire

N2O emissions from forest fire CH4 emissions from forest fire Deadwood

Litter Belowground Aboveground

Output can also be presented according to forest type, soil type, forest function, subsequent land use, pool, REDD+ activity, UNFCCC category etc

Total annual net GHG emission estimates from forests and peatland in Indonesia

Improvement plan

Continuous improvement is a fundamental principle of the INCAS approach

The system framework is flexible to incorporate the improvements without significant changes

INCAS Roadmap - incorporating all land sector activities and further reducing uncertainties in GHG emissions and removal estimates in future national inventories

• Incorporating more data sets

• Increasing the length of the time series of forest cover change

• Improving fire mapping