Indo-Korea relations with focus on trade
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Transcript of Indo-Korea relations with focus on trade
INDO-KOREA RELATIONS
(with special focus on bilateral trade
and economic relationship)
A Presentation by Col Ajay K Raina, SM
소개 • Official name. • Taegukgi. • Geo size. • Population. • Size of economy. • Ideology. • Govt. • Domain. • Currency. • Religion. • Capital. • Official Language.
Sogae
Sits at a Strategic Location
Korea Strait
Senkaku islands
Objective
To study the relations between India and Korea with special focus on bilateral trade and economic
relationship.
Paper to Ppt: Scope • Part 1 – Historical perspective
(pre-modern times till 1974).
• Part 2 – Building up of trade ties (1974 – 2009).
• Part 3 – New surge (2009 till date).
• Part 4 – What lies ahead!
PART 1 – HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
(PRE-MODERN TIMES TILL 1974)
The First Contact • 48 AD; Silla.
• 4th Century AD; T&T.
• 14th Century – Sultanate & Confucians; Buddhism.
• Cold era of 500.
• Colonial cousins.
• WW II…..Sayonara!
• 1945 – 38th Parallel.
• 1948; trying to be pre-1945.
• 1950 Korean War.
Role of India : 1947-1954 • Newly born babies; course corrections.
• UNTCOK – 1948.
• KPS Menon.
• UN Resolutions:-
– Who was the aggressor?
– Sending troops to Korea.
• Vijay Laxmi Pandit and Armistice Agreement’53.
• CFI.
• NAM & US; Socialist & Capitalist; To one’s own!
• 1962 on to 1973.
Part 2 – Building up of trade ties
(1974 – 2009)
1974 - 2000 • Nix trade till 1974.
• First trade agreement; generic.
• 1978 bilateral x 36.
• MFN.
• 1985 – thaw; double taxation.
• Collapse of a giant.
• 1990/91 – SAP+LPG+LE vs Restructuring post CW.
• 1993 – Narsimha Rao; 1996 – Kim Young-sam.
• 1996 – Protection of Investment.
• 1999 – Kim Jong-pil; PSLV & KITSAT-3.
Turn of the Century • 2004 - Roh Moo-hyun; Long-term Cooperative
Partnership for Peace and Prosperity.
• 2005 - India-RoK Foreign Policy and Security Dialogue; expansion into defence.
• Re-assertion of LE policy with economic dimensions.
• 2006 – Study Group.
• 2009- CEPA.
• New era.
The Net Effect
Part 3 – New surge
(2009 till date)
Moving on: 2010 & Beyond
• Strategic partnership post CEPA.
• Multiple fronts from diplomatic to defence to economic to cultural fields.
• 2010 - Lee Myung-bak.
• 2011 – Pratibha Patil.
• 2012 – MM Singh.
• 70% jump post CEPA.
• Posco – one off.
• Aiming to hit 40 Billion by 2015.
Facts and Figures
• 20 per cent of the Indian small car market share.
• Over 50 per cent of market share for consumer durables.
• US$158 billion vs US$129 billion in the last ten years.
• Tata & Daewoo trucks; M&M & Ssangyong.
Part 4 – What lies ahead?
Analysis of the Potential • Current trade and investment vs potential.
• Korea’s share in India’s global trade volume is less than 3 per cent.
• India accounts for only 1.3 per cent of Korea’s total outbound FDI flow.
• Challenge of a trade deficit; better access for IT, pharmaceutical and agricultural products.
• Healthy recent past and need for a healthier future.
• Negotiations between friends to review the implementation of CEPA and examine the need for upgrading.
• eg the largest number of pharmaceutical products registered with the US FDA by any foreign country; mangoes are world class and so are many agricultural products.
RoK’ Exports to India
5
18
10
22 6
8
14
9
8
%age
Petrochem
Auto parts
Semi conductors
Machinery
Shipping
Wireless eqpt
LCD Devices
Steel
Others
Indian Exports to RoK
11
22
9
16
24
18
%age
Gems/stones
Chemicals
Pharma
Textiles
Agro
Others
Issues : India’s Outlook • CEPA & trade barriers. • Non trade barriers. • Govt policies. • Licensing requirements. • BIS requirements. • Foreign participation in services. • Bureaucratic hurdles. • Clogged judicial system. • Bias in award. • Corruption. • Licensing and Inspection costs
Issues : RoK • Stiff regulatory framework.
• Very high standards and adherence.
• KFDA requirements.
• KPTA – trade secrets.
• Frequently changing labelling patterns.
• Appointment of inspectors.
The Road Ahead
• IT sector – HW & SW.
• Science and Technology – Financials & HR.
• Pharmaceutical Industry – R&D, clinical trials, mutual.
• Broadcasting- Products & Consumers.
• Tourism - History; Buddhism.
• Healthcare- Mutual.
• Construction and Related Services – Tech & Demand.
• HR – Shortage & Plenty
Part 5 – Conclusion • A long association with huge
gaps in-between.
• Suspicion; search for global entity.
• Realities of post cold war.
• Strong complementarities.
• Shifting bases of economies.
• Comparative advantage based.
• Dynamic equations.
• Miles to go!
감사합니다
(Gamsahabnida)