Indicators for policy support of Indicators for policy support of atmosphere related environmental problemsatmosphere related environmental problems

Robert Koelemeijer

National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)

ETC - Air and Climate Change

20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 2

ContentsContents

Indicators + examples• Stratospheric ozone• Air pollution • Climate change

Present status of indicators

How do/can satellite observations contribute to indicators

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Indicators: DPSIR Indicators: DPSIR

Indicators:• used to analyse developments• measure distance-to-target

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Stratospheric ozoneStratospheric ozone

Consumption of Ozone Depleting Substances (EEA31)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

millio

n O

DP

kg

Methyl bromide

HCFCsHalons

CFCs, Carbon tetrachloride, Methyl chloroform

Policy objective (Montreal protocol) :

phase-out use of ozone depleting substances

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Stratospheric ozoneStratospheric ozone

Averaged ozone column over Europe for March

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

year

Do

bso

n U

nit

s

State indicators:• Concentrations CFCs, HCFCs, Halons: ground-based data• Ozone column density: TOMS, GOME, ...

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Stratospheric ozoneStratospheric ozone

• Monitoring ozone layer from space is a success story:– total column density is the relevant quantity

– accuracy sufficient (few %)

– continuity of observations OK

• Future observations needed:– will ozone layer recover?

– interaction with climate change?

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Air qualityAir quality

• Ground based networks (EMEP, Airbase)– Components: O3, NO, NO2, VOCs, SO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, toxics,

heavy metals (Pb, Ni, Cd, As, Hg), ...

– Sites: street / urban background / rural background

– Accuracy depends on component. Typically 5-30% for single measurement.

– Some of the drawbacks:

• necessarily limited density of stations

• different network design per country

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Concentration NOConcentration NO2 2 (794 Airbase stations)(794 Airbase stations)

NO2 annual mean

0

20

40

60

80

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

ug

/m3)

street

urban

rural

EU limit value

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NONO22 map map

Yearly average 2000

Urban background

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GOME observations: tropospheric NO2GOME observations: tropospheric NO2

Image courtesy KNMI

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ATSR-2: aerosols over landATSR-2: aerosols over land

Image courtesy TNO-FEL

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MODIS AOD - PM2.5 correlationMODIS AOD - PM2.5 correlation

Kittaka et al., 84th AMS conference

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Air pollutionAir pollution

• Synergy between ground-based and satellite observations could be further explored

Satellite measurements

ModelAssimilation

Ground-based measurements

Emissions Concentrations(analysis &

forecast)

Depositions

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Air pollutionAir pollution

Satellites should

• sample boundary layer small pixel size (~10x10 km2) required– look between clouds – resolve source areas

• priority species: – PM10 and PM2.5 – Ozone (ground-level and tropospheric column (CC))

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Climate ChangeClimate Change

Kyoto-monitoring:• emissions estimated through “activity” approach

(emission = activity x emission factor)• reporting guidelines fixed (IPCC)• same method for all years (1990 - 2012)

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GHG inverse modellingGHG inverse modelling

• Inverse modelling of satellite observations of CO2

and CH4 might give useful constraints on sources and sinks. But research has only started recently.

• Some bottlenecks:– Data availability (Mopitt?, Sciamachy?, NASA/OCO)

– Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions are rather well known (< 10%). Inverse modelling will constrain locations and strengths of natural sources and sinks.

– Constraining anthropogenic CH4 seems better feasible: shorter lifetime, anthropogenic emissions less well known and of similar magnitude as natural emissions.

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Other forcings and feedbacks Other forcings and feedbacks

• Climate change policy heavily depends on science (IPCC): current effects are only minor compared to future.

• Model validation necessary to improve projections– Greenhouse gases – Aerosols (land & ocean)– Clouds

• Aerosols and tropospheric O3 (precursors) not in Kyoto protocol, but monitoring these are important both for climate change and air quality.

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• State and impact indicators for Europe have been developed recently by ETC-ACC. – Temperature, precipitation, extremes– Cryosphere (snow cover, glaciers, Arctic sea ice)– Marine system (sea level, SST, marine growing season,

shifts in species distribution)– Ecosystems and biodiversity– Public health (tick borne diseases, heat-waves)

• Non-atmospheric satellite measurements used for CC State & Impact indicators: e.g., detection of changes Arctic sea-ice and snow cover.

Need for long-term satellite observational records

State + impact indicatorsState + impact indicators

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Climate changeClimate change

Arctic Sea-ice Extent anomaly since 1973

Source: IPCC, 2001

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ConclusionsConclusions

• Ozone layer: monitoring from space is a success story: sufficient accuracy for long-term ozone trend detection and long-term continuity assured

• Air quality: assessments may improve through synergy between ground-based and satellite measurements

• Climate change: inverse modelling of ground- and satellite observations may constrain CO2 and CH4 sources & sinks. Research recently started. But unlikely to improve anthropogenic CO2 emission inventories.

• Indicators are only part of the story. Scientific progress (model validation, constraining natural fluxes, etc) is crucial to improve projections.