India’s Future Power System : Challenges and Opportunitiesrb/Professional...
Transcript of India’s Future Power System : Challenges and Opportunitiesrb/Professional...
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Rangan Banerjee
Forbes Marshall Chair Professor
Department of Energy Science and Engineering
IIT Bombay
Keynote Address at ICCRIP 2016 Plenary Session II organized by NICMAR, Pune - October 22, 2016
India’s Future Power System : Challenges and
Opportunities
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Are our electricity supply systems sustainable?
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Global Trends – Unbounded Growth?
GEA Ch 3 3
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Rockstrom et al, Nature 2009 4
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Long term global temperature record
Rockstrom et al, Nature 2009 5
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Carbon Dioxide Concentrations
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/lawdome.gif 6
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History Of Electric Power Generation
100 kW DC
Power
Systems
Edison
18
80
1882
Darjeeling Power
Station 13 kW
Hydro power
station
1896
1948
20
15
1914
19811
900
1931
1965
2000
1895
Emambagh
Power Station –
CESC – Thermal
power station
1,362
MW
19471899
1964-69
Tarapur –
1st Nuclear
power plant
(2x160MW
=320MW)
Westinghouse,
Tesla-AC
power plant
TATA
Power
4000 MW
Power
plant,
Gujarat
2013
Damodar
Valley
Corporation &
Electricity
Supply Act
formed by
Govt. of India
Total
Installed
capacity-
1713MW
(15kWh/
capita)
1950
JNNSM
2010
Rajastan –
Atomic Power
Plant(300MW
+4x220MW)
Kaiga
Generating
Station-
(4x220MW
)
Kudankulam
-1000 MW
2014
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Installed Capacity - India
303070 MW All India installed capacity
Source: GOI, Ministry of Power, India (powermin.nic.in)
43086 MW Total Renewable installed capacity
2016 (as on 30.04.16)
Coal, 185993Nuclear,
5780
Natural Gas, 24509
Hydro (Res.), 41267
Diesel, 919
Renewables (Res.), 43086
Wind power, 26867
Small Hydro power, 4275
Biomass & Bagasse,
4831
Waste to Power, 115
Solar Power , 6998
Source: MNRE, Govt. of India (www.mnre.gov.in)
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AustraliaSwitzerland
2013 India
United States
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
0.800
0.900
1.000
0 5000 10000 15000
Hum
an D
evelo
pm
en
t In
dex (
HD
I)
Annual Electricity consumption/ capita (kWh)
HDI and Electricity consumption (2013)
World
2035 India
1980 India
Netherlands
Russia
Pakistan
0.80-0.93
0.71 - 0.8
Very High HDI
High HDI
Medium HDI
Low HDI
0.57 - 0.70
0.41 - 0.55
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Renewable share?
10
What will be the future supply mix for the Electricity sector ?
How much can renewables and nuclear supply?
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India’s INDC
#1 Reduce Emissions Intensity of GDP by
33-35% of 2005 level in 2030
#2 Create 40% cumulative non fossil power
by installed capacity by 2030 (using finance
from Green Climate Fund)
#3 Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to
3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through
additional tree cover and forest
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Renewable Installed Capacity
Renewable Generation
Nuclear generation Nuclear Installed Capacity
Renewable Share in Power
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Renewable installed capacity and generation
*as on 28.02.2016 MNRE website: www.mnre.gov.in
Installed
Capacity*
Estimated
Capacity factor
Estimated
Generation
(GWh) (MW)
Wind 25217 14% 30926
Biomass & Bagasse 4827 70% 29596
Small Hydro 4194 40% 14697
Waste to Energy 115 50% 504
Solar PV 5547 19% 9233
Total 39901 25% 84957
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Power Generation – Supply mix
Thermal
Nuclear
Renewables and Hydro
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Power Generation – Supply mix
Thermal
Nuclear
Renewables and
Hydro
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Power Generation – Supply mix
Thermal
Nuclear
Renewables and
Hydro
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Cost of Electricity ($/MWh)
3 R
s./k
Wh
6 R
s./k
Wh
9 R
s./k
Wh
Bloomberg, 2015 17
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Comparison of Supply technologies
GenerationTechnology
SIZERANGE(GW)
COSTCrores/ MW
Rs/kWh
CAPACITY FACTOR
AREA(m2/GWh)
CO2
Equivalent(gC02/kWh)
WATERl/MWh
COAL 0.1-4 5-6 3.5 0.8-0.9 200-400 820 1000
CCGT 0.1-1.5 4-5 3 0.5 -0.8 100 490 500
SOLAR PV 0.001-0.75
5-7 5.5 0.25 385 48 100
SOLARTHERMAL
0.01-0.5 10-15 12 0.25-0.29 300 48 3500
HYDRO 2.4-0.1 5-6 2.5-3.0
0.38-0.5 1374 24 17000
NUCLEAR 9.9-0.44 6.5-8 6-7 0.8-0.9 120 12 1000
WIND 1-0.1 6 4.5 -5.0
0.25 125 11 0
http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/solar%20energy%20in%20India.pdf
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1 MW Solar Plant – IIT Bombay
http://www.indiaprwire.com/pressrelease/education/20140128287038.htm19
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Building Integrated PV
20
Roofed walkway with HeliaFilm® at the Seletar
Airport Singapore
Entrance canopy of CleanTech Park 2,
Singapore
30 m2
flexible 7%
Organic PV 12%
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Printed PV
22
VICOSC’s new solar cell printer installed at CSIRO
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National Solar Thermal Power Facility – Consortium supported
by MNRE and led by IIT Bombay
Thermal Storage
Solar Field
Expansion Vessel
Heat Exchanger
Generator
Condenser
Turbine
PumpPump
Cooling Water Circuit
Water/ Steam Loop
ThermicOil Loop
CLFR Direct Steam
Schematic of 1 MW Solar Power PlantSimulator snapshot
Parabolic Trough Solar Field Linear Fresnel Reflector Solar Field at Gwalpahari site
Consortium Members
KIE Solatherm
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2
424
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2
525
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Prototype for 24 x 7 Solar Thermal Power
Development of indigenous
heliostat
Development of improved LFR
with steam storage using PCM
Development of molten salt
loop and stratified storageTemperature
°C
1 290 Flow
2 550 Flow
3 550 No Flow
4 290 No Flow
Heat transfer fluid is molten salt
flow
condition
Heat Exchanger
Stratifiedmolten salt
Storage
Solar tower
1
2
3
4
Molten saltPump for tower
Molten saltPump for H.X
Water
Superheatedsteam
DESE- IIT Bombay
Partners: Clique Consultants, Mumbai
KGDS Renewable Energy, Coimbatore
Sponsored by NETRA –NTPC Ltd
26
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TEAM SHUNYASOLAR DECATHLON EUROPE 2014
27
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House in Versailles – 26th June, 2014
Team Shunya
70 students 13 disciplines 12 faculty 28
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House assembly process
29
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Team Shunya’s Solar House “H Naught”
30
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0
50
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Tota
l In
stal
led
Cap
acit
y o
f So
lar
and
Win
d E
ne
rgy
(GW
)
China USA India Japan Germany
Existing Capacity (GW) Targets for the Future (GW)
31
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Plan Layout
32
32
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A portion of the ELU map of Ward A of MCGM
Corresponding Satellite Imagery for the area from Google Earth
Analyzed in QGIS 1.8.0To determine-Building Footprint Ratios- Usable PV AreasFor Sample Buildings
Source: R. Singh and Banerjee, 2015 33
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0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0:0
1-
1:0
0
1:0
1-
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0
2:0
1-
3:0
0
3:0
1-
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1-
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1-
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9:0
0
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1-1
0:0
0
10:0
1-1
1:0
0
11:0
1-1
2:0
0
12:0
1-1
3:0
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13:0
1-1
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1-1
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1-1
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3:0
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1-2
4:0
0
MU
s
Jan, 2014 Typical Load Profile vsPV Generation
1-AxisTracking @Highest eff.
1-AxixTracking @Median eff.
19 deg. FixedTilt @ Highesteff.
19 deg. FixedTilt @ Medianeff.
0.115
0.125
0.135
0.145
0.155
0.165
0.175
0.185
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Capacity Factor for Mumbai
1-Axis Tracking
Fixed Tilt @ 19deg.
Annual Averagewith 1-AxisTracking
34Source: R. Singh and Banerjee, 2015
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35
Gujarat Wind1st April 201622:47 pm
Gujarat Wind3rd March 201622:00 pm
Installed Capacity 3542 MW
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A.Dave, T.Kanitkar and R.Banerjee Analysing Implications of India's Renewable Energy Targets, 2016 - draft 36
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37
SAM
Intermediate
Consumption
Final
Demand
EndogenousExo
gen
ous
SAM Coefficients
Multiplier Decomposition
Δf
New Production
New SAM
Scenarios for
Sectoral
Growth
Energy
Demand
Energy Supply
Constraints
– Resource,
Emissions
Investment
Analysis using SAM From Decomposition
Analysis
Δx = MA*Δf
From
Optimisation or
Manual
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Non Fossil Electricity
INDC Target Achievable
Low Capacity factors- High daily and seasonal
variability
Financing issues – Initial capital – Reduction in
GDP, Equity impacts
Storage costs – problems with high penetration
-Capacity credit?
Need for R&D and indigenization
Impact on Employment
38
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End-Note Solar Thermal Facility – goal to enable design and development of
future indigenous cost effective plants,Facility developed , not
sure about future usage,
Sub-critical technology development efforts,Manufacturing
capability development – Employment -SC coal, Storage
Financing the energy sector – level playing field for distributed
energy
Rapid deployment – Solar PV – need to enhance , indigenous PV
industry, emphasis on roof-top PV, system studies, forecasting
Variability and Intermittency
Hybridisation, Storage, Demand Response
Innovation, Technology Development
Capital Requirements, Land , water
Centralised vs Decentralised39
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References
40
GEA, 2012 Chapter 3 : Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
T. Kanitkar et al 2015: Tejal Kanitkar, Banerjee, R. Banerjee and T. Jayaraman,
Impact of economic structure on mitigation targets for developing countries,
Volume 26, June 2015, 56–61, June 2015.
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), Government of India, New
Delhi, website: www.mnre.gov.in
Ministry of Power, Government of India, http://powermin.nic.in/
R. Singh and Banerjee, 2015: Singh, R., and Banerjee, R., Estimation of rooftop
solar photovoltaic potential of a city, Solar Energy, Vol. 115, 589-602, May 2015.
Rockstrom et al, Nature 2009
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/lawdome.gif
http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/solar%20energy%20in%20India.
http://www.indiaprwire.com/pressrelease/education/20140128287038.htm
Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2016: Global Trends in Renewable Energy
Investment 2016
A.Dave, T.Kanitkar and R.Banerjee Analysing Implications of India's Renewable
Energy Targets, 2016 - draft
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Acknowledgment
Balkrishna SurveTejal Kanitkar
Thank [email protected]@gmail.com
Solar power team+ Team Shunya
Rhythm Singh Pankaj Kumar
Jani Das Ajit Paul Abraham