From: Christine Matthews Date: June 12, 2015 Subject: Indiana Statewide Survey Executive Summary We interviewed 1,000 registered voters (800 general election with a 200 GOP primary oversample) in Indiana May 29 June 3, 2015 by cell and landline telephone. Overview We have not seen any evidence of recovery for Governor Pence since the poll we conducted in mid-April for Howey Politics. In fact, the numbers for him are worse, suggesting that even though RFRA is no longer making headlines, it has not been forgotten. This may be one of those situations where a sleeping giant has been kicked and is now wide awake. On this poll we see a decline in Mike Pences standing both in terms of personal image and ballot strength resulting in a tied ballot with both Glenda Ritz and John Gregg. Because John Gregg retains little name ID from his previous run, his standing vis--vis Pence is not about Gregg, its about Pence. Glenda Ritz retains support from the passionate base of education-motivated parents and teachers who helped her defeat Tony Bennett. A majority of voters say they want a new person as governor while just under a third would re-elect Mike Pence. On a generic ballot for president, voters favor the Republican +12 over the Democrat for president in 2016. Compare this with a tied gubernatorial ballot between Pence and Ritz (at 42% each) and Pence and Gregg (40%-41%). Having polled in Indiana for over 20 years, I am very comfortable with the fact that party identification varies from poll to poll since it is an attitude, not a demographic. As long as the fundamental demographics such as age, race, education, gender and region are in line with the population, party ID may vary. This poll had a +10 Republican advantage while our April Howey poll was +5 Republican. If anything, we should see some improvement for Mike Pence simply because the partisan identification of the voters is more favorable, but we dont. One of the subgroups we are watching carefully is college educated women. This group decides elections and in Indiana, as nationally, can swing in either direction. On the Howey poll, Pence showed vulnerability with this group and on our June survey, we see even more of this. They rate him negatively by nearly a 2:1 margin both in terms of whether or not they like him and whether or not they approve of the job he is doing as governor. College educated women vote for Glenda Ritz over Mike Pence by nearly 20 points and for John Gregg by 15 points. Based on their response to an open ended question, their unhappiness with him stems from his handling of education policies, particularly relative to Glenda Ritz and with his handling of RFRA. Pence lost women by 5 points in 2012 and these numbers point to a worse performance in 2016, the extent of which will be determined by what happens in the next year. On this poll we see what may be an even more ominous finding for him which is a significant drop among college educated men a +20 Republican identifying group. With this base GOP group, Pence has a negative image rating and a 16 point net job disapproval rating. College men split their ballots evenly between Pence and Gregg and Pence and Ritz. This is a core Republican group who is supporting the generic GOP presidential candidate by 17 points over a Democrat.

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Overall, Mike Pence has a divided job approval rating (at 46%), which is what we found in April. While 53% approve of the job Mike Pence is doing specifically on Indianas economy, just 32% approve of how he handled RFRA and a plurality (40%) still believes RFRA will have a negative impact on Indianas economy, while 37% say it will have no real impact. As we found on the April Howey poll, a majority (54%) supports amending Indianas civil rights law to add sexual orientation and gender identity protections, 32% oppose and 14% are undecided. Seniors and African Americans are more likely to be undecided on this suggesting they may be in a transition period toward acceptance. By a 45%-32% margin, voters would be more likely to support a candidate for governor who supports adding sexual orientation and gender identity to Indiana civil rights law. Of course, civil rights protection will be the next engagement. The Democrats and Freedom Indiana will work to make this a hallmark issue for the 2016 gubernatorial election. It has the power to especially activate younger voters who may typically be less interested in a gubernatorial election than a presidential one. Key Numbers

Mike Pence has a 34% favorable 43% unfavorable rating. On the April Howey poll, his image was 35% favorable 38% unfavorable, a net 6 point decline.

46% approve of the job Mike Pence is doing while 46% disapprove. In terms of intensity, 13% strongly approve and fully 31% strongly disapprove.

Just under one third would re-elect Mike Pence (32%), while a majority (54%) favor a new person and 15% are unsure.

On a generic 2016 presidential ballot, the Republican has a 12 point edge over a Democrat, 43%-31% with 26% undecided.

Mike Pence and Glenda Ritz are tied at 42% on a gubernatorial ballot.

John Gregg is at 41% to 40% for Mike Pence in a potential 2016 rematch.

Mike Pence specific job approval scores on: the economy: 53% approve 38% disapprove taxes and spending: 47% approve 37% disapprove Health care: 42% approve 36% disapprove K-12 education: 36% approve 46% disapprove RFRA: 32% approve 52% disapprove

The Religious Freedom Restoration Act will have a: negative impact on Indianas economy (40%), no impact on Indianas economy (37%) or a positive impact on Indianas economy (9%).

By a 54%-32% margin, voters support adding sexual orientation and gender identity to Indianas civil rights law. 45% would be more likely to support a candidate who favored this, while 32% would be less likely.