Indiana Statewide Voter Survey EXEC SUM Aug 2012

7/31/2019 Indiana Statewide Voter Survey EXEC SUM Aug 2012

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Internet: www.mri-research.com E-mail: [email protected]

Introduction & Methodology

This report represents the results of a scientific telephone survey of public opinion among 600 Indiana

likely voters conducted August 6-9, 2012. Dr. Verne Kennedy, Senior Analyst for Market Research

Insight, served as Project Director, developed the research instrument, analyzed results, and prepared the

following analysis report.

The sample population was scientifically selected to meet rigid criteria of random selection and

geographical allocation. Survey results for the sample of 600 Indiana likely voters provides a sampling

error factor of plus or minus 4.0% at the .95 level of confidence.

Market Research Insight follows established and accepted procedures for sample selection, survey

design, and analysis. All survey research, however, is subject to a margin of statistical error.


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Executive Summary

This Indiana statewide survey of 600 likely voters conducted by telephone August 6-9, 2012 provides a

sample an error of 4.0% at a .95 level of confidence. Dr. Verne Kennedy served as Project Director for the

Indiana Chamber Statewide Survey.

Indiana Election for U. S. Senate

The survey examined voter awareness and opinion of the major candidates for U.S. Senate. In addition, a

ballot question measured current support for candidates.

Senate Awareness and Opinion

The survey examined awareness and opinion for the two leading candidates for U. S. Senate, Democrat

Joe Donnelly and Republican Richard Mourdock. The following question was used to determine

candidate awareness and opinion information. As I read a list of names, please tell whether or not you are

familiar with each name. If you have never heard the name just say so. The first name is Joe Donnelly

(IF RECOGNIZE, ASK) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him? An identical question

was employed for Richard Mourdock.

JOE DONNELLY NAME RECOGNITION

No Recognition 32%

Favorable Recognition 26

Neutral Recognition 29

Unfavorable Recognition 14

Total Awareness 68%

Hard Opinion Recognition 40

Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable 1.9:1


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RICHARD MOURDOCK NAME RECOGNITION

No Recognition 14%




Total Awareness 86%



The following graphs summarize name recognition results. The first graph provides total recognition and

the second graph looks at favorable and unfavorable opinion. The third graph shows the favorable to

unfavorable opinion ratio.

CANDIDATE NAME RECOGNITION

68%

86%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Richard Mourdock

Joe Donnelly

Total Awareness


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OPINION OF CANDIDATES

27%

26%

26%

14%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Richard Mourdock

Joe Donnelly

Favorable Unfavorable

CANDIDATE OPINION RATIOS

1.0:1

1.9:1

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Joe Donnelly

Richard Mourdock

Ratio


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Election for U. S. Senate

A ballot question included in the survey read: In an election for U. S. Senate held today, which candidate

would you favor (ROTATE ORDER) Richard Mourdock the Republican, Joe Donnelly the Democrat or

Andrew Horning the Libertarian? (IF UNDECIDED, ASK) Even though you are uncertain about you

vote, which candidate would it be if you just had to say (ROTATE ORDER) Richard Mourdock, Joe

Donnelly or Andrew Horning?

TRIAL HEAT U.S. SENATE

Lean Richard Mourdock (R) 2%

Vote Richard Mourdock (R) 39

Lean Joe Donnelly (D) 1

Vote Joe Donnelly (D) 38

Lean Andrew Horning (L) 0

Vote Andrew Horning (L) 3

Uncertain/Undecided 17%

Total Richard Mourdock (R) 41%

Total Joe Donnelly (D) 39

Total Andrew Horning (L) 3


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As indicated by other recent Indiana surveys, the race for U. S. Senate remains close with 41% Richard

Mourdock, 39% Joe Donnelly, and 3% for Libertarian Andrew Horning. MRI completed an analysis of U. S

Senate trial heat results.

Indianas largest media district, Indianapolis, favored Mourdock 40%, Donnelly 38%, Horning

3%, and 19% for undecided.

The 26% of voters having a favorable opinion of Donnelly responded Donnelly 79%, Mourdock

15%, Horning 1% and 6% undecided. The 29% of voters having neutral recognition fo

Donnelly, not holding a favorable or unfavorable opinion, replied Mourdock 43%, Donnelly 28%,

Horning 4% and 24% undecided. The 14% of voters unfavorable to Donnelly favoredMourdock 88%.

The 27% of voters favorable to Mourdock replied Mourdock 93%, Donnelly 5%, Horning 0%,

and 2% undecided. Mourdock neutral opinion voters responded Mourdock 39%, Donnelly 31%

Horning 3% and 27% undecided. The 26% of voters unfavorable to Mourdock favored

Donnelly 83%.

In the ballot question, Democrats favored Donnelly 83% and Republicans favored Mourdock

80%. Democrats and Republicans were virtually equal in responding undecided, 11% and

12%. Independent voters favored Mourdock 21%, Donnelly 25%, Horning 14%, while 41%

were undecided.

Voters under 45 years of age responded Mourdock 42%, Donnelly 34%, Horning 7% and 16%

undecided. Voters over 45 years of age replied Mourdock 41%, Donnelly 40%, Horning 1%

and 18% undecided.

Men favored Mourdock 46%, Donnelly 37%, Horning 4%, and 13% were undecided. Women

chose Donnelly 41%, Mourdock 36%, Horning 3%, and 20% were undecided.


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The 16% of Indiana voters saying they were completely Independent will likely determine the outcome of

the election for U. S. Senate. As typical, both Democrats and Republicans are relatively polarized favoring

the candidate of their party. Although Donnelly holds a 4% current advantage among Independents, 41%

are still undecided. Among voters 45 years of age and older the Senate race is a virtual tie with 18%

undecided. However, among the younger voters who make up a smaller percent of those likely to cas

ballots in Indiana, Mourdock has an 8% advantage with 16% undecided. It is clear that men favo

Mourdock and women favor Donnelly. Such gender gaps based upon political party are typical in

American politics. As indicated, men were 13% and women 20% undecided which give Donnelly an

advantage. If the Obama campaign is successful in achieving a high young voter turnout again, that could

help Mourdock. Although Independent voters give Donnelly a slight advantage, the same Independen

voters favor the Republican in the Governors race by a margin of greater than two-to-one.

Based on current survey results, Mourdock has the advantage in the election for U.S. Senate because

more of the undecided voters identify themselves as Republicans than Democrats, and undecided voters

favor the Republican for Governor 33% to 6%. As the election nears, there is good probability tha

Republicans now undecided as well a few currently favoring Donnelly will favor Mourdock, Mourdock

should also do better with Independents who vote more Republican for Governor.


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Indiana Election for Governor

The survey examined voter awareness and opinion of the major candidates for Governor. In addition, a

ballot question measured current support for candidates.

Governor Awareness and Opinion

Although the Indiana election for U. S. Senate based upon these survey results does not give either the

Republican or Democrat a clear advantage, the election for Governor is less uncertain. The following

tables provide name recognition and opinion results for Republican Mike Pence and Democrat John

Gregg.

JOHN GREGG NAME RECOGNITION

No Recognition 59%




Total Awareness 41%




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MIKE PENCE NAME RECOGNITION

No Recognition 20%




Total Awareness 80%



The following graphs summarize name recognition results. The first graph provides total recognition and

the second graph looks at favorable and unfavorable opinion. The third graph shows the favorable to

unfavorable opinion ratio.

CANDIDATE NAME RECOGNITION

41%

80%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Mike Pence

John Gregg

Total Awareness


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OPINION OF CANDIDATES

36%

16%

18%

9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Mike Pence

John Gregg

Favorable Unfavorable

CANDIDATE OPINION RATIOS

2.0:1

1.8:1

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Mike Pence

John Gregg

Ratio


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Political Party Identification

The survey examined political party identification using the following question: Regardless of how you

are registered to vote, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? (IF

INDEPENDENT, ASK) Do you lean more toward thinking of yourself as a Republican or a Democrat?

POLITICAL SELF IDENTIFICATION

Democrat 31%

Independent Democrat 7

Completely Independent 16

Independent Republican 9

Republican 37

Total Democrat 38%

Total Republican 46

Although Indiana voters have a history of electing both Republicans and Democrats to statewide office

Republicans have an advantage in political party self-identification of 46% to 38% with 16% saying they

are completely Independent. That advantage definitely helps Pence in the race for Governor, but the

Republican advantage does not help Mourdock in the same way. With the Presidential election occurring

at the same time as balloting for U. S. Senator, it will be interesting to see if either Obama or Romney

provide a coattail effect assisting other candidates in their parties.

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Indiana Statewide Voter Survey EXEC SUM Aug 2012

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Transcript of Indiana Statewide Voter Survey EXEC SUM Aug 2012