Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State...

16
Purdue Cooperative Extension Service On Local Government Hints of Recovery: Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins Larry DeBoer Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University May 26, 2011 For more information DeBoer’s Indiana Local Government Information Website: www.agecon.purdue.edu/crd/Localgov

Transcript of Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State...

Page 1: Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State Budget s s m: l l t n t l t n n 1 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 $917 $843 $989 $938 $957 $75)))

Purdue Cooperative Extension Service

On Local Government

Hints of Recovery:

Indiana State and Local Governments as

the Recovery Begins

Larry DeBoer

Department of Agricultural Economics

Purdue University

May 26, 2011

For more information

DeBoer’s Indiana Local Government Information Website:

www.agecon.purdue.edu/crd/Localgov

Page 2: Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State Budget s s m: l l t n t l t n n 1 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 $917 $843 $989 $938 $957 $75)))

1

The April Revenue Forecast and the State Budget

Co

mp

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ual

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FY 2

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FY 2

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ly '10

$917

$843

$989

$938

$957

$75

($72)

($21)

($40)

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gu

st$938

$865

$940

$898

$904

$72

($2)

$40

$34

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pte

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$1,1

62

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70

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($35)

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$917

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on

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ore

cast.

, A

pril 2011.

Page 3: Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State Budget s s m: l l t n t l t n n 1 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 $917 $843 $989 $938 $957 $75)))

2

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To

tal

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nce

s %

of

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ve

nu

e17.8

%10.0

%6.1

%7.2

%4.9

%6.5

%8.8

%10.1

%10.7

%10.9

%6.7

%6.1

%6.1

%7.3

%

5%

of

Revenue

460

456

440

502

546

574

622

635

660

653

616

658

692

720

Paym

ent

Dela

y L

iabili

ty-

-

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711

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726

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286

31

-

-

-

-

-

Ap

pro

pri

ati

on

s l

ess R

ev

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ion

s9,5

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12,8

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13,7

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13,8

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14,2

11

Perc

ent

Change

5.2

%0.7

%4.1

%6.4

%2.5

%3.7

%2.4

%5.0

%9.5

%-2

.3%

-0.4

%0.8

%2.8

%

Pre

pare

d b

y L

arr

y D

eB

oer,

Depart

ment

of

Agri

cultura

l E

conom

ics,

Purd

ue U

niv

ers

ity a

nd P

urd

ue C

oopera

tive E

xte

nsi

on S

erv

ice, A

pri

l 2011.

Page 4: Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State Budget s s m: l l t n t l t n n 1 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 $917 $843 $989 $938 $957 $75)))

3

Page 5: Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State Budget s s m: l l t n t l t n n 1 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 $917 $843 $989 $938 $957 $75)))

4

2012 and 2013 School Formula Simulation

2011 2012 2013

ADM 998,399 999,124 999,279

0.1% 0.0%

State Regular 5,655,019,503 5,536,131,894 5,601,056,731

Per ADM 5,664 5,541 5,605

Percent Change -2.2% 1.2%

Total Regular 5,831,549,077 5,536,131,894 5,601,056,731

Per ADM 5,841 5,541 5,605

Percent Change -5.1% 1.2%

All State Aid 6,575,011,188 6,277,783,386 6,339,582,776

Per ADM 6,586 6,283 6,344

Percent Change -4.6% 1.0%

Reductions 327,304,225

Net State Aid 6,247,706,963 6,277,783,386 6,339,582,776

Per ADM 6,258 6,283 6,344

Percent Change 0.4% 1.0%

State Regular is distributed by the state aid formula.

Total regular includes the "restore" grant in 2011, funded with Federal

stimulus aid.

All State Aid includes the special education, vocational, prime time

and honors grants.

Reductions are spending cuts below appropriations.

Net State Aid is All State Aid less Reductions.

Page 6: Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State Budget s s m: l l t n t l t n n 1 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 $917 $843 $989 $938 $957 $75)))

5

Recession, Trending and the Tax Caps

Page 7: Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State Budget s s m: l l t n t l t n n 1 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 $917 $843 $989 $938 $957 $75)))

6

Recession, Trending and Tax Caps

Recession reduced property prices and new construction in 2009 in many

counties.

Trending incorporates reduced prices into assessed values in 2010.

2010 assessments are used for property tax billing in 2011.

Lower assessed values require higher tax rates to raise a particular levy.

Higher tax rates make more taxpayers eligible for tax cap credits, in taxing

districts where rates are already higher.

Tax cap credits are revenue lost to local governments.

Property tax revenue is vulnerable to recession, with a two-year lag.

If recovery began in 2010, and trending picks up increases in property values,

after-credit property tax revenue could increase in 2012

Percent Change in Taxable Assessed Value, 2010-2011(69 Counties)

Agriculture Share in A.V.

Increase in Unemployment Rate,

2007-2009

Less than

10% 10% to 20%

More than

20%

All Ag

Shares

Less than 5% 0.5% 3.5% 3.3% 2.1%

5% to 7% -1.0% 0.3% 2.7% 1.1%

More than 7% -1.5% -0.1% 1.5% 0.1%

All Unemployment Changes -0.4% 0.9% 2.5% 1.1%

Page 8: Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State Budget s s m: l l t n t l t n n 1 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 $917 $843 $989 $938 $957 $75)))

7

Increase in Unemployment Rate, 2007 – 2009

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 13 13 11 11 8 8

5 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 13 13 11 11 8 8

5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 13 13 11 11 8 8

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 13 13 11 11 8 8

5 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 13 13 11 11 8 8

5 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 13 13 11 11 8 8

5 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 13 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

5 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 13 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

5 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 13 13 11 11 8 8

5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 8 8

5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 11 11 8 8

5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 11 11 8 8

5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 11 11 8 8

5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 11 11 8 8

5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 8 8

5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5

5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5

6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5

6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5

6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5

6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5

6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5

6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5

6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5

6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5

6 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10

6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 10

6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 10 10

6 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 10 10

6 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 10 10

6 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 10 10

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 10 10

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 10 10

5 5 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 10 10

5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 10 10

5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 10

5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 10

5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 10 10 10 10 10

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

5 5 5 5 6 6 9 9 6 6 8 8 8 7 7

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 9 9 6 6 8 8 8 7 7

7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 6 6 9 9 6 6 8 8 8 7 7

7 7 7 7 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 9 6 6 8 8 7 7 7

7 7 7 7 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 6 6 8 8 7 7 7

7 7 7 7 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7

7 7 7 7 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 7

7 7 8 8 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 4 4 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 4 4 5 5 6 6

7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 4 4 5 5 6 6

7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6

7 7 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6

7 7 7 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6

6 6 6 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6

6 6 6 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6

6 6 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

6 6 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6

6 6 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 7 7

6 6 5 5 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7

6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7

6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7

6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7

6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7

6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7

6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7

6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 5

6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 5 5

6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 5 5

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 5 5

5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 5 5

5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 5 5

5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 5

5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5

5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5

5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 5 5

5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 5 5

5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 5

5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 5 5

5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 5 5

4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5

4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5

4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5

4 4 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6

4 3 3 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 4 4 4 4

4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4

4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4

4 4 4 3 3 4 4 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4

4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4

4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 4

4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6

4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5

4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 4

4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5

4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5

4 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 3 3 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 4 4 5 5

4 5

3.83.4 4.8

5.3

4.94.1

4 5.64.3

4.6

5.3

3.7

6.2

5.6

3.5

5.74

3.62.6

6.4

7.2

5.4

4.2

2.6

5.25.7

4.6

4.35.9

3.2

8

6.7

5.8 7.4 5.3

5.8

4.6

4.64.7

4.2

4.7

7.5

3.6

4.2

6.4

6.5

64.9

4.2 4.6

4.5

5.2

7.7

6.5

6.7

5.9

8.1

4.4

5.2

6.1

7.7

6

7.6

9.5

6.9

6.1

6.5

5.1

6.1

5.6

5

9

7.7

8

7.7

5.4

5.3

5.6

6.2

7.4

7.9

8.2

6.312.9

11 8.2

5.4

5.2

6.4

10.77.6

8.2

Increased Less than 5%

Increased 5% to 7%

Increased More than 7%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

Do

llar

s p

er

Acr

e

Year Taxes Paid (Pay Year)

Base Rate per Acre of Farmland for Property Taxation,Actual 1980-2012; and Estimated 2013-2014

Negotiated Rate, 1980-2002

Capitalization Formula, 2003

Annual Trending withCapitalization Formula, 2008-

Trending and Rate Freeze, 2006-07

New Formula Drops Highest Value, 2011-

Page 9: Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State Budget s s m: l l t n t l t n n 1 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 $917 $843 $989 $938 $957 $75)))

8

Average Change in Tax Cap Credits as Percent of Levy, 2010-11(61 Counties)

2010 Rate, Dollars per $100 AV

Rate Pct. Change Less than $2.00 $2.00 or More All Rates

Less than -2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2%

-2% to +2% 0.1% 0.7% -0.1%

More than 2% 0.6% 2.7% 1.4%

All Rate Changes 0.3% 1.4% 0.8%

Number of Counties with Changes in Rates, Net Assessed Values and Levies, 2010-2011(69 Counties)

Levy Percent Change Net A.V. Pct. Change

Pct. Change in Average Tax Rate,

2010-2011 Less Than 2% 2% or More

Less Than

2% 2% or More All

Less than -2% 18 0 7 11 18

-2% to +2% 14 10 16 8 24

More than 2% 10 17 27 0 27

All Tax Rate Changes 42 27 50 19 69

Page 10: Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State Budget s s m: l l t n t l t n n 1 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 $917 $843 $989 $938 $957 $75)))

9

Tax Cap Credits by County, 2010 and 2011

County

2010 Tax Cap

Credits

2011 Tax Cap

CreditsChange

2010 Pct. Of

Levy

2011 Pct. Of

LevyChange

1 Adams 1,110,145 1,303,736 193,590 3.8% 4.4% 0.6%

2 Allen 24,631,711 34,994,690 10,362,978 7.0% 10.1% 3.2%

3 Bartholomew 3,438,788 3,279,377 -159,410 4.1% 3.9% -0.2%

4 Benton 273,469 284,685 11,216 2.5% 2.6% 0.1%

5 Blackford 1,555,292 14.4%

6 Boone 2,621,757 4,036,629 1,414,872 3.6% 5.9% 2.3%

7 Brown 139 8,667 8,528 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%

8 Carroll 891,964 748,757 -143,207 5.1% 4.7% -0.4%

9 Cass 5,915,537 3,597,347 -2,318,190 16.9% 10.7% -6.2%

10 Clark 3,349,106 5,127,478 1,778,372 3.3% 5.5% 2.3%

11 Clay 2,452 17,558 15,105 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%

12 Clinton 2,244,586 3,307,806 1,063,220 7.9% 10.9% 3.1%

13 Crawford 967,247 1,233,792 266,545 12.0% 15.0% 3.0%

14 Daviess 2,679,883 3,339,160 659,277 10.3% 12.8% 2.5%

15 Dearborn 636,873 475,095 -161,777 1.4% 1.1% -0.3%

16 Decatur 298,506 382,015 83,508 1.4% 1.9% 0.5%

17 DeKalb 609,930 876,295 266,365 1.6% 2.2% 0.6%

18 Delaware 25,474,251 22.6%

19 Dubois 921,577 1,335,616 414,039 2.3% 3.2% 0.9%

20 Elkhart 14,952,499 20,984,244 6,031,745 6.9% 10.3% 3.4%

21 Fayette 3,121,304 3,983,412 862,108 14.4% 18.1% 3.7%

22 Floyd 1,156,656 1,911,329 754,673 1.9% 3.2% 1.3%

23 Fountain 363,576 313,519 -50,057 2.8% 2.6% -0.2%

24 Franklin 3,054 18,185 15,131 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%

25 Fulton 64,563 85,459 20,897 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%

26 Gibson 1,573,746 1,010,350 -563,396 3.7% 2.9% -0.8%

27 Grant 1,381,212 2,274,092 892,880 2.3% 4.2% 1.9%

28 Greene 1,464,857 1,818,975 354,118 7.7% 9.4% 1.6%

29 Hamilton 14,895,060 22,118,937 7,223,877 3.9% 5.9% 1.9%

30 Hancock 5,062,615 5,269,505 206,890 7.7% 7.9% 0.2%

31 Harrison 99,320 32,328 -66,992 0.5% 0.2% -0.3%

32 Hendricks 10,636,378 19,479,806 8,843,428 5.7% 11.0% 5.3%

33 Henry 4,020,809 4,871,769 850,960 10.7% 13.1% 2.4%

34 Howard 4,447,869 7,897,508 3,449,638 4.7% 8.3% 3.7%

35 Huntington 3,842,559 11.8%

36 Jackson 260,567 630,276 369,709 0.8% 1.9% 1.1%

37 Jasper 11 3,544 3,534 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

38 Jay 480,956 2.5%

39 Jefferson 798,824 1,257,911 459,087 3.0% 4.8% 1.7%

40 Jennings 644,114 741,615 97,502 3.3% 4.3% 1.0%

41 Johnson 10,295,916 11,945,653 1,649,738 7.6% 9.4% 1.8%

42 Knox 5,253,582 7,256,309 2,002,726 15.9% 20.6% 4.7%

43 Kosciusko 891,463 858,811 -32,652 1.3% 1.2% 0.0%

44 LaGrange 139,935 227,701 87,766 0.5% 1.0% 0.4%

45 Lake 101,084,193 13.4%

46 LaPorte

Page 11: Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State Budget s s m: l l t n t l t n n 1 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 $917 $843 $989 $938 $957 $75)))

10

Tax Cap Credits by County, 2010 and 2011

County

2010 Tax Cap

Credits

2011 Tax Cap

CreditsChange

2010 Pct. Of

Levy

2011 Pct. Of

LevyChange

47 Lawrence 2,810,294 2,718,904 -91,390 7.8% 7.9% 0.1%

48 Madison 29,026,487 22.9%

49 Marion 79,244,942 134,624,752 55,379,810 7.9% 14.1% 6.2%

50 Marshall 769,587 830,452 60,865 1.9% 2.2% 0.3%

51 Martin 163,836 255,870 92,034 2.8% 4.3% 1.4%

52 Miami 2,089,488 1,851,774 -237,713 8.7% 8.3% -0.5%

53 Monroe 174,392 505,961 331,570 0.2% 0.5% 0.3%

54 Montgomery 2,713,556 6.7%

55 Morgan 29,117 46,689 17,573 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

56 Newton 332,195 362,132 29,937 2.2% 2.3% 0.1%

57 Noble 507,372 1,509,753 1,002,381 1.3% 4.0% 2.7%

58 Ohio 136 1,051 915 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

59 Orange 32,685 22,895 -9,789 0.3% 0.2% -0.1%

60 Owen 250,187 387,494 137,307 1.9% 2.9% 1.0%

61 Parke 66,061 35,251 -30,810 0.6% 0.3% -0.3%

62 Perry 1,200,399 1,133,920 -66,479 8.3% 8.9% 0.6%

63 Pike 357,720 476,667 118,947 2.7% 3.3% 0.7%

64 Porter 3,826,272 7,910,037 4,083,765 2.1% 4.5% 2.4%

65 Posey 646,573 524,394 -122,179 2.2% 1.8% -0.4%

66 Pulaski 5,888 12,310 6,422 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

67 Putnam 329,299 298,490 -30,809 1.2% 1.1% -0.1%

68 Randolph 2,490,612 2,803,393 312,781 11.6% 13.4% 1.8%

69 Ripley 8,911 14,234 5,324 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

70 Rush 1,551,770 9.6%

71 St. Joseph 35,578,971 45,269,912 9,690,941 10.7% 16.4% 5.8%

72 Scott 678,081 4.0%

73 Shelby 1,232,389 1,202,080 -30,309 2.8% 3.2% 0.4%

74 Spencer 72,262 84,543 12,282 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

75 Starke 354,243 425,552 71,309 2.0% 2.5% 0.4%

76 Steuben 15,082 67,697 52,614 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%

77 Sullivan 689,893 714,184 24,291 3.8% 3.8% 0.0%

78 Switzerland 9,979 0.2%

79 Tippecanoe 4,332,109 2.8%

80 Tipton 401,099 808,195 407,096 2.7% 5.5% 2.8%

81 Union 353,189 5.3%

82 Vanderburgh 6,239,348 8,132,815 1,893,468 3.7% 5.0% 1.3%

83 Vermillion 593,225 3.9%

84 Vigo 15,064,227 13,922,610 -1,141,617 14.6% 13.9% -0.7%

85 Wabash 60,578 0.3%

86 Warren 17,904 20,140 2,236 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

87 Warrick 909,526 619,081 -290,445 1.9% 1.4% -0.6%

88 Washington 857,402 1,126,976 269,574 4.8% 6.0% 1.2%

89 Wayne 5,486,825 5,580,886 94,061 8.5% 9.3% 0.8%

90 Wells 74,212 56,391 -17,821 0.4% 0.3% -0.1%

91 White 233,592 374,794 141,202 1.0% 1.5% 0.6%

92 Whitley 230,047 348,376 118,329 1.0% 1.5% 0.6%

Page 12: Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State Budget s s m: l l t n t l t n n 1 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 $917 $843 $989 $938 $957 $75)))

11

Assessed Values, Levies, Rates and Tax Credits, Indiana Counties, 2010-2011

Per $100 AV Percent Changes, 2010 -2011 Dollar Changes, 2010-2011

County

Average Tax

Rate, 2011

Net Assessed

Value

Levy, All

Governments

Average Tax

RateLevy, All

Governments

Total Tax

CreditsNet Change

01 Adams 2.2179 1.1% 1.6% 0.5% 475,630 -193,590 282,040

02 Allen 2.5984 -2.8% 1.2% 4.1% 4,093,903 -10,362,978 -6,269,075

03 Bartholomew 2.0400 -0.2% 1.9% 2.1% 1,575,592 159,410 1,735,002

04 Benton 1.5312 18.3% -0.4% -15.9% -46,906 -11,216 -58,122

05 Blackford 2.7123 0.9% -0.8% -1.7% -89,151

06 Boone 0.4% 254,638 -1,414,872 -1,160,234

07 Brown 1.0540 1.4% 27.2% 25.4% 2,825,997 -8,528 2,817,469

08 Carroll 1.5444 0.7% -5.9% -6.5% -986,997 143,207 -843,790

09 Cass 2.7257 -1.5% -2.4% -0.9% -822,656 2,318,190 1,495,534

10 Clark 7.9% 6,679,492 -1,778,372 4,901,120

11 Clay 0.9001 3.6% 2.0% -1.5% 291,204 -15,105 276,099

12 Clinton 2.2227 1.1% 6.2% 5.0% 1,770,219 -1,063,220 706,999

13 Crawford 2.8663 0.5% 5.1% 4.6% 398,121 -266,545 131,576

14 Daviess 2.2743 1.0% 4.3% 3.3% 1,068,272 -659,277 408,995

15 Dearborn 1.7781 -0.7% -5.6% -4.9% -2,525,254 161,777 -2,363,477

16 Decatur 1.5224 4.3% 1.4% -2.8% 285,436 -83,508 201,928

17 DeKalb 1.7882 -0.8% 6.9% 7.8% 2,584,851 -266,365 2,318,486

18 Delaware 3.1033 -3.2% -0.2% 3.2% -171,792

19 Dubois 1.9623 0.6% 6.4% 5.8% 2,510,366 -414,039 2,096,327

20 Elkhart -0.7% -1,369,978 -6,031,745 -7,401,723

21 Fayette 3.3084 -1.7% 1.7% 3.4% 359,913 -862,108 -502,195

22 Floyd 1.8699 1.3% 7.8% 6.3% 4,266,986 -754,673 3,512,313

23 Fountain 1.6578 2.2% -2.6% -4.7% -318,864 50,057 -268,807

24 Franklin 1.3547 3.7% 3.6% -0.1% 462,313 -15,131 447,182

25 Fulton 1.6811 0.7% 4.2% 3.5% 662,487 -20,897 641,590

26 Gibson 1.6260 5.9% -3.0% -8.4% -1,080,251 563,396 -516,855

27 Grant 2.4127 -1.6% 0.2% 1.8% 99,668 -892,880 -793,212

28 Greene 2.2521 6.0% 5.2% -0.8% 958,276 -354,118 604,158

29 Hamilton 11.4% 38,579,599 -7,223,877 31,355,722

30 Hancock 2.2859 0.4% 4.5% 4.1% 2,868,565 -206,890 2,661,675

31 Harrison 1.1592 0.2% -13.9% -14.1% -3,070,396 66,992 -3,003,404

32 Hendricks 7.0% 11,509,295 -8,843,428 2,665,867

33 Henry 2.5656 -2.7% 1.1% 4.0% 417,457 -850,960 -433,503

34 Howard -0.4% -414,213 -3,449,638 -3,863,851

35 Huntington 2.4229 -2.3% 3.2% 5.6% 967,796

36 Jackson 1.8885 -1.9% 4.9% 6.9% 1,583,249 -369,709 1,213,540

37 Jasper 0.9457 1.2% -0.1% -1.2% -19,789 -3,534 -23,323

38 Jay 2.2947 0.8% 2.8% 2.0% 513,756

39 Jefferson 2.1596 0.3% 4.2% 3.9% 1,077,207 -459,087 618,120

40 Jennings 2.0004 2.8% -1.4% -4.0% -237,942 -97,502 -335,444

41 Johnson 2.1009 1.4% 0.2% -1.1% 304,565 -1,649,738 -1,345,173

42 Knox 2.3252 9.1% 10.4% 1.2% 3,287,863 -2,002,726 1,285,137

43 Kosciusko 1.2588 -1.5% 2.9% 4.5% 1,966,594 32,652 1,999,246

44 LaGrange 1.1796 -1.4% 1.4% 2.9% 330,152 -87,766 242,386

45 Lake

46 LaPorte

Page 13: Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State Budget s s m: l l t n t l t n n 1 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 $917 $843 $989 $938 $957 $75)))

12

Assessed Values, Levies, Rates and Tax Credits, Indiana Counties, 2010-2011

Per $100 AV Percent Changes, 2010 -2011 Dollar Changes, 2010-2011

County

Average Tax

Rate, 2011

Net Assessed

Value

Levy, All

Governments

Average Tax

RateLevy, All

Governments

Total Tax

CreditsNet Change

47 Lawrence 2.6401 2.0% -1.3% -3.3% -465,851 91,390 -374,461

48 Madison 1.7% 2,007,621

49 Marion 4.5% 41,190,218 -55,379,810 -14,189,592

50 Marshall 1.0% 387,456 -60,865 326,591

51 Martin 4.0% 232,814 -92,034 140,780

52 Miami 2.2611 -2.8% -5.0% -2.3% -1,182,249 237,713 -944,536

53 Monroe 8.7% 8,447,127 -331,570 8,115,557

54 Montgomery 5.9% 2,317,389

55 Morgan 1.2996 0.9% -3.9% -4.7% -1,616,150 -17,573 -1,633,723

56 Newton 2.0156 2.1% 1.4% -0.7% 207,266 -29,937 177,329

57 Noble 1.8467 -2.2% 6.7% 9.1% 2,371,224 -1,002,381 1,368,843

58 Ohio 0.9735 2.0% 21.0% 18.7% 444,398 -915 443,483

59 Orange -1.0% -105,574 9,789 -95,785

60 Owen 2.6% 345,421 -137,307 208,114

61 Parke 1.4193 2.4% -4.2% -6.5% -446,606 30,810 -415,796

62 Perry 2.0562 2.4% -1.0% -3.3% -133,624 66,479 -67,145

63 Pike 6.2% 835,166 -118,947 716,219

64 Porter 1.8365 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3,422,804 -4,083,765 -660,961

65 Posey 1.6066 0.7% 0.3% -0.4% 85,017 122,179 207,196

66 Pulaski 1.4382 5.4% 0.5% -4.6% 52,269 -6,422 45,847

67 Putnam 1.5948 5.1% 3.3% -1.7% 852,935 30,809 883,744

68 Randolph 2.1741 1.8% -0.3% -2.0% -63,153 -312,781 -375,934

69 Ripley 1.4799 2.2% 3.6% 1.4% 636,517 -5,324 631,193

70 Rush -3.0% -473,135

71 St. Joseph 2.8572 -3.4% -0.3% 3.2% -797,975 -9,690,941 -10,488,916

72 Scott 2.0451 -1.4% 1.7% 3.1% 255,696

73 Shelby 1.6374 -2.1% -3.5% -1.4% -1,371,623 30,309 -1,341,314

74 Spencer 1.3856 6.1% 5.0% -1.1% 978,755 -12,282 966,473

75 Starke 1.7855 -1.8% -0.1% 1.7% -21,020 -71,309 -92,329

76 Steuben 1.0888 -2.3% 0.7% 3.0% 213,030 -52,614 160,416

77 Sullivan 3.0% 547,762 -24,291 523,471

78 Switzerland 1.1752 -0.9% 1.1% 2.0% 59,259

79 Tippecanoe 3.3% 4,452,275

80 Tipton 1.7311 5.8% 1.4% -4.1% 206,772 -407,096 -200,324

81 Union 2.2041 1.0% 1.4% 0.5% 96,246

82 Vanderburgh 4.1% 6,433,486 -1,893,468 4,540,018

83 Vermillion 0.5% 75,964

84 Vigo 2.5484 3.3% 0.4% -2.7% 430,951 1,141,617 1,572,568

85 Wabash 1.8446 1.5% -1.7% -3.2% -385,454

86 Warren 0.6% 42,041 -2,236 39,805

87 Warrick 1.5797 -2.8% 0.2% 3.1% 101,677 290,445 392,122

88 Washington 2.2258 2.0% 5.5% 3.4% 974,610 -269,574 705,036

89 Wayne 2.4264 -1.5% -1.6% -0.1% -997,976 -94,061 -1,092,037

90 Wells 1.5131 1.0% 2.4% 1.3% 433,724 17,821 451,545

91 White 1.4412 1.4% 3.0% 1.7% 718,907 -141,202 577,705

92 Whitley 1.5462 1.0% 4.8% 3.7% 1,033,568 -118,329 915,239

Page 14: Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State Budget s s m: l l t n t l t n n 1 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 $917 $843 $989 $938 $957 $75)))

13

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Page 15: Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State Budget s s m: l l t n t l t n n 1 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 $917 $843 $989 $938 $957 $75)))

14

Indiana School Referenda Results, 2008-2011

All Referenda Capital Projects General Fund Tax

Total Passed Defeated Total Passed Defeated Total Passed Defeated

All Elections 67 27 40 34 12 22 33 15 18

Percentages 40.3% 59.7% 35.3% 64.7% 45.5% 54.5%

Nov. 2008 5 4 1 5 4 1 none

Jan-June 2009 12 2 10 11 1 10 1 1 0Nov. 2009 9 4 5 4 1 3 5 3 2May 2010 16 8 8 7 3 4 9 5 4

Nov. 2010 18 6 12 5 2 3 13 4 9

May 2011 7 3 4 2 1 2 5 2 3

May vs. November

• November 2008: 5 referenda, 80% pass

• Jan. – June 2009: 12 referenda, 17% pass

• May, 2010 & 2011: 23 referenda, 48% pass

• Nov., 2009 & 2010: 27 referenda, 37% pass

Page 16: Indiana State and Local Governments as the Recovery Begins1 The April Revenue Forecast and the State Budget s s m: l l t n t l t n n 1 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 $917 $843 $989 $938 $957 $75)))

15

Franklin vs. Perry

PERRY FRANKLIN

Franklin vs. Perry

Franklin PerryPct. Yes 36% 58%

Tax Rate Proposed $0.75 $0.44 Share of Business in AV 23% 35%Share of Rentals in AV 4% 8%Debt Svc./Pupil 1,895 1,177 Free Lunch Pct 20% 39%Pupils/Teacher 18.2 15.1