Indian Transformer Market
description
Transcript of Indian Transformer Market
Indian Transformer Market
• Transformer industry is suffering since last 2 years with low recovery and cash
loss and phase is worst then 1997-2001 phase due to higher installed capacity
• Transformer Market is growing 10% in volumes but price recovery is lower by
15% to 20% compared with 2006-07
• Also growth is 20% for voltage higher then 220kV like HVDC 765kV & Reactors
that is where Tier-1 player get better recovery
• 2013 will see small recovery as pent up demand for 220kV and below will
increase and market will grow by 15% , prices should improve by 3% point
Transformer Industry Status
Capacity & Demand
Loss Zone Loss ZoneProfit Zone
Ind
ex
MV
A
Note – Index taken with base of Prior 94-96 years, Source IEEMA
Demand
Capacity
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
prior to 94-95
1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16
Contribution pts Demand Capacity
Additional capacity of 50% Is the trigger
•Capacity is 280000 MVA
•Demand is 200000 MVA
•Addition of 50 % +
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Sales Price (Comparison) Material cost (Comparison) Contibution Points
Ind
ex
Movement of Material Cost & Sales Price & Contribution
While Material cost has increase by 7%, the Sales price has come down 20%, this explains present crisis of industry.
Expected to
improve
In 2013-14 by
%
•Price drop is 20%+ thus shrinking
contribution to avg. 16% or less
•33 •13
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
60
80
100
120
140
160
prior to 94-95
1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16
Sales price (Comparison) Material cost (Comparison) Contribution pts Demand Capacity
Identical graph, when Demand & Capacity & Contributions seem together
Loss Zone Loss Zone/BE or
marginal profit
Profit Zone
Ind
ex
MV
A
Note – Index taken with base of Prior 94-96 years, Source IEEMA
Demand
Capacity
� This will trigger action from the industries in year 2012-13 and in
2014-15, which will be a)Capacity reduction b)Cost cutting c)Better
terms of payment d)Price increase by 3-4%
Manufacturers Across India
Kerala Electrical & Allied Engg.
EFG
Danish Private Limited
•Andhra Pradesh
•Karnataka
•Tamil Nadu
•Gujarat
•Kerala
•Maharashtra
•Madhya Pradesh
•Rajasthan
•West Bengal
PME, UP
Kotsons, UP
East India Udyog,
Mirzapur Electrical Ind
ABB
Transformers & Rectifiers
Voltamp Transformer
AREVA T&D
Bharat Bijlee
EMCO
Kirloskar Power Equipment Ltd
High Volt Electricals
Universal Transformers
Southern Power Equipment Company
Kamath Transformers
Venkateswara Electrical Industries (p) ltd
Indo – Tech transformers
P.S Electricals
Transformers & Electricals Kerala
Andrew Yule & Co
Marson's Limited
RTS Power Corporation
Vijai Electricals
Pan-Electro TechnicEnterprises
The Thana Electric Supply Company
Technical Associates, Uttaranchal
, Accurate Transformers, Uttaranchal
Rajasthan Transformers & Switchgears , Delhi
•Uttar Pradesh
Tesla Transformers Limited
Crompton Greaves
BHEL
•Orissa
Alfa Transformers Ltd
Orissa Transformers Ltd
Aarkay Transformers
•Delhi
•Uttaranchal
Power Transformer Market Segmentation
KV Ranges
PGCIL NTPC+ Large IPP STATE UTILITY IPP renewable part INDUSTRY Grand
Total
(MVA)Units MVA Total Units MVA Total Units MVA Total Units MVA Total Units MVA Total
765 kV20 270 5400 20 270 5400 10 270 2700 10 270 2700 10 270 2700
2390010 500 5000 10 270 2700
Total 30 10400 30 8100 10 2700 10 2700 10 2700
400kV24 315 7560 14 270 3780 48 315 15120 10 270 2700 15 270 4050
412606 500 3000 10 315 3150 6 500 3000 10 160 1600
Total 30 10560 24 6930 54 18120 10 2700 25 5650
Reactors30 80 2400 5 80 400
460010 120 1200 5 120 600
Total 40 3600 10 1000
220kV
6 100 600 15 80 1200 68 160 10880 40 50 2000 30 50 1500
3358020 200 4000
40 50 2000
114 100 11400 20 100 2000
Total 6 600 1200 242 28280 40 2000 50 3500
132kV &
66kV
10 100 1000 15 80 1200 240 50 12000 100 50 5000
39284
30 50 1500 60 63 3780 50 40 2000
200 40 8000 50 20 1000
30 50 1500
54 16 864
44 10 440 100 10 1000
Total 10 1000 45 2700 628 26584 0 0 300 9000
Grand
Total
(MVA)
26160 19930 756847400 to 9000
MVA
20850 to 25000
MVA142624
Competitor Market Matrix
Total production for MPT & LPT is around 175,000MVA + Imports around 20,000MVA & Export around 20,000MVA = 215,000MVA
MVA BBL Vijai T&R EMCO Voltamp
Prolec
GE AREVA ABB Siemens IMP Kanohar
Tech
Asso TELK BHEL CGL Kirloskar
CEN UTILITY 550 1100 2500 900 375 8750 3600 4000 500 400 0 600 11200 8400
SEB 6050 6600 4000 4500 1500 300 3750 1600 800 3000 2400 3150 4500 9800 8400 240
EPC 2200 2200 2000 1800 2250 750 6250 1200 800 750 800 0 600 2800 4200 240
INDUSTRIAL 2200 1100 1500 1800 3375 1800 6250 1600 2400 750 600 350 300 1400 7000 1920
PROD 11000 11000 10000 9000 7500 3000 25000 8000 8000 5000 4000 3500 6000 28000 28000 2400
•Production by end User (MVA)
Competitor Focus by End User Segment
� Tier-1 players like AREVA, Siemens, ABB etc., concentrate on Central
Utilities.
� Whereas Tier 2 players like BBL, Vijay, T&R, EMCO concentrate on SEBs
� BHEL and CGL are prominent in both Central and State Utilities
� Industry segment is small market size about 35000 MVA+
Indian Transformer Market
Transformer Market, India – 250,000MVA
REC, 36,000, 14%
Dry type, 10,000, 4%
Oil DT, 29,000, 12%
Oil PT, 175,000, 70%
•Imports 20000 MVA extra so 195000 MVA
Indian Transformer MarketPower Transformer Market, India – 175,000 MVA+
20,000 Import + 20,000 MVA export
Cental25%
SEBs39%
EPC15%
Industrial21%
�SEB’s (State Utilities) are 40% of the market
�400kV, 765kV are 42% of the market
�Industry only 20 %
BBL7%
Vijai8%
T&R7%
Voltamp8%Areva
22%
BHEL10%
CGL14%
Others24%
EPC – 29,000 MVA
Areva21%
ABB8%
Siemens9%
BHEL26%
T&R6%
CGL20%
Others10%
Central Utility – 43,000 MVA
BBL10%
Vijai11%
T&R7%
EMCO8%
Areva6%
IMP5%
Kanohar4%
Techasso5%
TELK7% BHEL
16%
CGL14%
Others7%
State Utility - 70,000MVA
Areva18%
CGL20%
Siemens7%
Voltamp10%
BBL6%
EMCO5%
Kirloskar6%
ABB5%
Prolec GE5%
Others18%
Industrial – 35,000 MVA
Power Transformer Market -170,000MVA
�ABB, Siemens, BHEL, CGL, ALSTOM focus on central utility & IndustrialMarket + 765kV and 400kV + Reactor + HVDC
�Tier 2 players concentrate on EPC & State utility market
•Power Transformer Market – 170,000 MVA
765kV16%
400kV26%
220kV26%132kV
32%
Chinese20%
CGL25%
ABB*13%
Areva22%
BHEL10%
T&R10%
765kV - 24,000MVA
CGL17%
ABB*15%
Areva15%Siemens
15%
BHEL17%
TELK5%
Vijay5% Others
11%
400kV - 40,000MVA
CGL8%
Areva9%
BHEL13%
TELK5%
Emco9%BBL
9%
T&R8%
Vijay10%
Voltamp4%
Kanohar5%
IMP5%
Others15%
220kV - 40,000MVA
CGL6%
Areva6%
BHEL8%
TELK6%
Emco9%
BBL10%Voltamp
7%
T&R10%
Vijay10%
Kanohar7%
IMP7%
Techasso4%
Others10%
132kV & 66kV - 50,000MVA
�400kV & 765kV market is covered by ABB, AREVA, Siemens, CGL, T&R &Chinese manufacturers
�230kV & 132kV are crowded market with many players
Distribution Transformer Matrix (by MVA)
VoltampVoltamp
Total MVA – 10000MVA Total MVA – 29000 MVA
Distribution Transformer Matrix
Total MVA – 39000MVATotal Value – $M680
Competitor’s Production & Revenue
Range BHEL CGL Areva ABB Siemens L&T Vijai Emco T&R BBL Voltamp IMP Kanohar Tech Ass
Prolec
GE Kirloskar Aditya
Own production 28000 25000 21000 10000 8000 11000 9000 10000 10000 7500 5000 4000 3500 3000 2400 2000
Outsourced (MVA)
MPT -
500, DT -
500 Nil
MPT -
800, DT
200
MPT -
800, DT -
500
MPT -
2000, DT
-500
MPT -
4000, DT
- 1000 Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
Total Sales (MVA) 29000 25000 22000 11300 10500 5000 11000 9000 10000 10000 7500 5000 4000 3500 3000 2400 2000
Notes - ABB, Siemens – When HVDC order comes, own system becomes major part, Aditya Produces 1000 MVA for CGL
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Sales to other EPC
Own System consumption
Industry
State
Central
Own Consumption
and Central Focus
Mainly State Focused
� Siemens has EPC, the own consumption is around 3000MVA, they procure 2500MVA from outside
� ABB having order for HVDC from their own EPC 3000MVA, they procure 2500MVA from outside
� Areva has EPC, the own consumption is around 4000MVA, they procure 2500MVA from outside
� L&T procure 4000MVA from outside + 5000MVA smaller EPC very competitive = 16500MVA
Thank you very much