India Vision 2050

1

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Sustainable Development for aLow-Carbon Society

Analysis for India

P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of ManagementAhmedabad, India

Presentation at ICSS 2009Tokyo, February 5-7, 2009

Presented By: Vaibhav ChaturvediIndian Institute of ManagementAhmedabad, India


•Development paths underpin the baseline and stabilization scenarios

•Three aspects of Sustainable Development•Economic: includes cost and overall welfare across various sectors•Environmental: includes linkages with the local issues like air, water, land

and biodiversity•Social: includes issues like gender, equity, governance, education and

health

•Climate change through sustainable development lens

“For a development path to be sustainable over a long period, wealth, resources, and opportunity must be shared so that all citizens have access to

minimum standards of security, human rights, and social benefits, such as food, health, education, shelter, and opportunity for self-development “

(Reed, 1996 as quoted in the IV Assessment Report, IPCC, 2007)

Sustainable Developmentand Climate Change


India Base Case: 2050


Analytical Framework

DATABASES-Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints

AIM CGE Model

ANSWER-MARKALModel

AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd

Use

Dem

and

Mod

el

AIM

Strategic Database

(SDB

)

Integrated Modelling FrameworkDATABASES

-Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints

AIM CGE Model

ANSWER-MARKALModel


Use

Dem

and

Mod

el

AIM

Strategic Database

(SDB

)

DATABASES-Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints

AIM CGE Model

ANSWER-MARKALModel


Use

Dem

and

Mod

el

AIM

Strategic Database

(SDB

)

Integrated Modelling Framework

2


India: Demographic TransitionPopulation (Million)

Labor Force (Million)

358

555

849

1183

14491593

0

400

800

1200

1600

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

133210

360

595

795915

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Year: 2000 Pop: 1021 Million

80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80

Age

Populat ion (million)

Female Male

15 -

60 y

ears

0

Male Female

18-6

2 Yr

s

80 60 40 20 20 40 60 80Population (Million)

Age

Pop: 1593 MillionYear: 2050

80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80

Age

Populat ion (mil l ion)

Female Male

15 -

60 y

ears

Male Female

18-6

2 Yr

s

80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80Population (Million)

Age

2.22%

2.15%

1.67%

1.02%

0.47%

2.30%

2.74%

2.54%

1.46%

0.70%

Growth Rate

Growth Rate


Base Scenario AssumptionsBase Scenario

1. GDP • Ann. Growth Rate: 7.2% from 2005-50• 2050 Economy: 23 times larger than 2005

2. Population • 2000: 1021 Million• 2050: 1593 Million

3. 650 ppmv CO2e Concentration Stabilization (or 550 CO2)

4. 4.7 W/m2 Radiative Forcing

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2020 2035 2050

Bas

e Ye

ar 2

005=

1

Annual Growth Rate 2005-50: 7.3%Annual Growth Rate 2005-32: 8%

GDP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

US

$/pe

rson

Per Capita Income

Savings Rate

20.622.8

24.6

33.035.0

32

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

4037??


Energy and Carbon: Base Case From 2005-2050:Annual Economic Growth: 7.2%Annual Population Growth: 0.9%

Increase in 2050 over 2005Economy 23 timesPopulation 1.56 times

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mto

e

Other RenewablesNuclearHydroGasOilCoalCommercial BiomassNon Com Biomass

Energy

Assumptions

Annual Improvement From 2005-2050:Energy Intensity: 3.14 (%)Carbon Intensity: 3.07 (%)Decarbonization of Energy: -0.07 (%)

Direct Investment in Energy Projects:2010-30: US$ 1.2 Trillion2030-50: US$ 2.3 Trillion

Results: Energy and Carbon Intensity

Carbon Emissions

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Milli

on T

on C

O2


Modeling Alternate Visions of Sustainable Low Carbon Society

3


Alternate Development VisionsStabilization Target and Visions

1. Global Stabilization Target Assumption:• 550 ppmv CO2e Concentration• 3.4 W/m2• @ 3o C temperature increase (50:50)

2. Two Development Pathways for India: (with same total CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2050)

1. Conventional Vision: Climate Actions at Margin of Conventional Development path

2. ‘Sustainability’ Vision: Aligning Climate Actions with Mainstream Development Actions

What path shall best deliver national development goals while fulfilling Climate Commitments?


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

OthersDevice Efficiency

Renewable Energy

CCS

Electricity Fuel Switch

Carbon Tax 7 22 40 67 100$/tCO2

1. Top-down/Supply-side actions

2. High Carbon Price as main instrument

3. Climate Focused Technology Push

Vision I: Managing Climate via Conventional Path

Cumulative Mitigation:62.6 Billion Ton CO2


1. Low Carbon Price2. Bottom-up/Demand-side Actions3. Behavioural Change4. Diverse Technology Portfolio

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

OthersCCSTransport ModeUrban PlanningConsumptionRecyclingMaterial SubstitutionsAppliance EfficiencyRenewable Energy Building

Electricity (Fuel Switch)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

Renewable Energy Renewable

Vision II: Managing Climate via Sustainable Path


Energy Technology Mix in 2050

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Nuclea

r

Biomas

s

Renew

able

Mto

e

Base Case

Conventional Dev. + Tax

Sustainability

Share of Renewable

Base 24 %C+T 34 %Sust. 47 %

Total Energy Demand

Base 3004 MtoeC+T 2945 MtoeSust. 2004 Mtoe

4


Energy and Carbon Intensities

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

EI (t

oe/M

illio

n IN

R)

0

10

20

30

40

50

CI (

tCO

2/M

illio

n IN

R)

Base CI

CT CI

LCS CI

Energy Intensities (EI)

Carbon Intensities (CI)

Energy and Carbon Intensities


CO2 Mitigation: Global and India

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Inde

x 20

00 =

1 India Base Case

India Carbon Tax(550 ppmv CO2e)

550 ppmv CO2e

Global Base Case

Base Case assumes global 650 ppmv CO2e stabilization

CO2 Emissions: Global and India


CO2 Emissions & Price Trajectories

Base Case

Conventional Society

Sustainable Society

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2020 2030 2040

Pric

e C

O2

(US

$/tC

O2)

2050

CO2 Price


Modeling for Sustainability Vision:• Restructure Private and Public Choices and Behavior• Focus on Long-term Drivers for Bifurcation• Aligning long-term market signals for co-benefits• Multiple Instruments

5


Urban Choices

• Land-use Planning

• Building Choices

• Infrastructures

• Service Networks


Choice of AutomobilesRush Hour Traffic in India

Rising Incomes and Small Cars

Tata Nano: $2500 QQ: $4000


Choice of Transport modesBus Rapid Transport System

Public Transport: Metro Rail

Technologies for Train Corridors


Dematerialization

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Dem

and

(Mill

ion

Ton)

Conventional Development

Sustainable Society

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Dem

and

(Mill

ion

Ton)


Sustainable Society

Cement

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Dem

and

(Mill

ion

Ton)

Steel


Sustainable SocietyD

eman

d (M

illio

n To

n)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Steel


Sustainable Society100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Conventional DevelopmentConventional Development

Sustainable Society

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Sustainable Society

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Sustainable Society

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Dem

and

(Mill

ion

Ton)


Sustainable Society

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Paper

Dem

and

(Tril

lion

Lum

en h

rs)

0

1000

2000

3000


Sustainable Society

Lighting

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

6


Co-benefits of LCS Transition through Sustainable Development


Co-benefits of Alternate Choices

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

tSO

2

Base Case

Sustainable Development + Low Carbon Tax

Conventional Path + High Carbon Price

Co-benefits: SO2 Emissions


Co-benefits of Regional Co-operationCoCo--benefits of Southbenefits of South--Asia Asia

Integrated EnergyIntegrated Energy--Water MarketWater Market

0.031050 Million TonSO2

0.98359Total

0.08285.1 Billion TonCO2 Equiv.

0.8732160 Exa JouleEnergy

% GDP$ BillionBenefit (Saving) Cumulative from 2010 to 2030

Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits

• More Water for Food Production (MDG1)

• 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7)

• Flood control (MDG1&7)

• Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1)

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability

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F

F

Ñº

ÑºÑº

India

China

Iran

Pakistan

Afghanistan

OmanMyanmar (Burma)

Thailand

Nepal

Turkmenistan

Saudi Arabia

Tajikistan

Yemen

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka

Bhutan

Uzbekistan

Somalia

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Laos

Malaysia

Bahrain

IndonesiaMaldives

Pune

GayaKota

Guna

Gadag

Kochi

Patna

Delhi

Anand

Dadra

SuratOlpad

Kalol

Panvel

Hassan

Dispur

Ambala

Nangal

Kanpur

Jhansi

UjjainJhabua

Valsad

NadiadRajkot

SolapurGuhagarChiptun

Chennai

Nellore

Kolkata

Sangrur

Sonipat

AuraiyaGwalior

Chotila Bharuch

PalmanerChittoor

Kokinada

LudhianaBathinda

Bareilly

Vijaypur

Mahesana

Tutikorin

MangaloreBangalore

Vijaywada

Faridabad

Ratnagiri

Kayankulam

Coimbatore

Jagdishpuri

Shahjahanpur

Vishakhapattnam

Tiruchchirappalli

Herat

MultanQuetta

Khuzdar

Karachi

Delaram

Kandhar

South-ParsIranshaharBandar-e-Abbas

Legend Important PlacesExisting Gas Pipelines

Proposed Gas PipelinesExisting LNG terminalsProposed LNG terminalsExisting Gas Basin

Gas Pipelines under construction

Proposed Gas Basin¨


Conclusions: An Alternate Scenario Storyline

and Modeling Framework

7


Sustainable Low Carbon Development

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability

Technological

Social/Institutional

Management

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock-ins

Long-term Vision

Win/Win OptionsShared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

National Socio-economic

Objectives and Targets

Global Climate Change

Objectives and Targets

TargetsInterventionsDriversAim

Back-casting


• Changing Behavior and Technology RD&D/ Transfer are key to LCS transition

• Moving from Margin to Mainstream– Development vision matters to LCS transition

– Managing climate change at the margin is costly, risky, and unsustainable

• ‘Paradigm Shift towards ‘Co-benefits’ and ‘Co-operation’: – Modeling policy myopia, coordination failures, information asymmetry with focus on

moving to efficient frontier and pushing the frontier

– Modeling to gain co-benefits as a positive-sum game (shift modeling focus to co-operation rather than competition)

– Focus on Drivers of Long-term Energy and Environment Future

• Even under LCS transition through sustainability, exclusive climate-centric actions for stabilization and adaptation will be needed, but their costs and risks shall be much lower

Conclusions: Modeling LCS with Sustainability


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