INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST - MitKat · when Gyaneshwari Express derailed in West for radical...

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Demonetisation: Artificially created distress or an effective

policy intervention?

Islamic State claims responsibility for the bombing on a Kabul

mosque targeting Shias

Afghanistan

REGIONAL SNAPSHOT

rd th thw December 3 to 8 : Annual People's Liberation w December 8 : Shiromani Akali Dal to hold Ahmedabad, Vadodara and Rajkot divisions to

Guerrilla Army (PLGA) week by Naxals statewide agitation in Punjab over the observe a week-long protest from December th

th Supreme Court ruling on the Sutlej – Yamuna 12 w December 6 : Anniversary of Babri Masjid thLink Canal matter demolition w December 13 : Anniversary of Parliament

thth w December 12 : Milad un-Nabi/Id-e-Milad attackw December 6 : Death anniversary of Dr. B. R. th(Birthday of Prophet Muhammad)Ambedkar w December 25 : Christmas

thth stw December 12 : Members of the National w December 8 : Sarbat Khalsa to be held at w December 31 : New Year's EveFederation of Indian Railwaymen in Damdama Sahib

THE MONTH THAT WAS

} Government announces demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes; move causes massive banking-related issues for general population

} Around 150 killed in a train accident of the Patna – Indore Express

} Former army soldier ends life over OROP; massive protests held by opposition in Delhi

} Air pollution levels in Delhi – NCR and parts of North India reach alarming levels

FORECAST FOR DECEMBER 2016

} Air quality in North India expected to drop during Winters; smog cover likely to cause travel disruptions

} In the run-up to the Uttar Pradesh and Punjab elections, political protests and rallies expected to rise in these states

} Demonetisation move expected to continue to pose issues for general population

th} Increased security likely ahead of the 24 anniversary of Babri Masjid demolition

EVENT CALENDAR

NAXAL TRACKER ISLAMIC STATE IN SOUTH ASIA}

}

Demonetisation policy has an effect on the funding of MaoistsIn a sign of growing presence of Maoists in Southern India, police kill two Maoists in an encounter in Kerala

} Bangladesh: Security agencies continue to crackdown on Neo-JMB} India: IS suspect arrested in Rajasthan; 68 IS supporters arrested in India, 50 in 2016} Pakistan: IS claims responsibility for attack on Shia shrine; IS modules bust by

security forces

Attacks on Hindu temples and houses raises ethnic tensions in the country;

several arrested for vandalism

At least 52 killed and over 100 injured in a bombing on a Shia shrine in Balochistan

province

Government minister admits that 32 Sri Lankan

Muslims have joined Islamic State

Political parties agree on move to amend Nepal's

Constitution; Tharu group demands separate

province

Sri LankaBangladesh Pakistan Nepal

7

November 2016

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

4

Rohingya crisis escalates in Rakhine province; Aung San Suu Kyi criticized for

lack of action

President Yameen moves to solidify his hold over

the party; oust half-brother and former president Gayoom

MaldivesSpotlight: Myanmar

9

15 1716

1

} State-wise Monthly Risk Ratings – November 2016

INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECASTDECEMBER 2016

6

14

2 3

5

12 1311

8

18 19 22

29

23 24

30 3125 26

20

27

21

28

10

India Monthly Risk Forecast - December 2016 1

thn November 8 , Prime Minister Narendra removed from circulation in the economy. OModi announced one of the biggest financial Meanwhile, there was a general air of panic and exercises India has seen in several decades by uncertainty in the days immediately after the banning the Rs 500 & Rs 1,000 notes. The move announcement. Banks and ATMs witnessed long was a measure to step up the government's attack queues where people had to stand for hours to on black money, counterfeit notes and terror either exchange, withdraw or deposit their money, finance. However, the move resulted in massive because of which banks had to, at times, take the disruptions to public life with bank branches and help of police to cope with the rush of customers. ATMs regularly running out of cash. The move also had an impact on small traders, vendors and The most impact of the demonetisation move has thousands in the informal economy. With this been on the country's informal sector, which may improve the fiscal position. As per Moody's, in announcement, the government removed 86 per accounts for around 40 percent of the economy, the medium term, higher income declarations will cent value of money in circulation in the Indian especially in rural India. As per some estimates, this boost tax revenues. market. Over 71 persons have reportedly died due is forecast to reduce GDP growth by one percentage to cash crunch in the country, due to which the point this year (2016-17). It is also expected to Meanwhile, ever since the Prime Minister government has come under criticism for impact the urban poor who depend on daily wages. announced the demonetisation, protests by unplanned management of the transition period. opposition political parties have been held across

The move was welcomed by several quarters of the the country. The Opposition parties also called for a thRetailers have already seen impact on their society, including the business and political nationwide protest, on November 28 , to escalate

business due to reduced cash transactions. In community. Several prominent international their agitation over the demonitisation drive. The addition, the move has resulted in cash crunch in individuals, like Bill Gates, have lauded the move by opposition parties are looking to use the many locations across the country, as the new Rs the government. According to Fitch Ratings, the demonetisation policy has a way of putting pressure 500 and Rs 2,000 notes printed are not at such a impact on India's GDP growth is predicted to be on the Modi government. high pace that they can replace the money negative in the short run but, on the positive side, it

Government announces demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes; move causes massive banking-related issues for general population

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2India Monthly Risk Forecast - 2016 December

n one of the worst train accidents in India, at The track was reportedly inspected around two Ileast 150 persons were killed and over 200 days before the accident, and was found to be in injured when 14 bogies of the Patna-bound good condition. Rail fractures develop when a small Indore-Rajendranagar Express went off the track crack grows and are caused when excess weight is in Kanpur Dehat (rural) district of Uttar Pradesh, in pressed on to the tracks. Poor maintenance and a

ththe early hours of November 20 . Officials believe major variation in daily temperatures, common that a rail fracture may have led to the crash of 14 during Northern India's winter, can worsen the carriages into each other, which were carrying fractures.around 1,700 passengers. According to the Railways, casualties could also have been higher India recorded 27,581 railway deaths in 2014, with

the railways to the remote areas of the country, since all coaches were the old ICF ones rather than most victims falling from, or being struck by, moving especially to the northeastern region. However, the modern Linke Hofmann Busch coaches. The trains. Between 2012 to 2016, 81,038 people have despite the authorities stating that amount spent outdated carriages account for 92 per cent of the lost their lives due to trespassing on railway tracks on safety has nearly doubled, the safety of railways Railways' 63,000 coaches. and 346 while crossing unmanned line crossings. remains a prime security concern. There is a need The last big rail accident in India was in May 2010, for radical changes in how security is approached to when Gyaneshwari Express derailed in West reduce the number of accidents, in addition to Midnapore in West Bengal, killing 148 people. increasing the infrastructure of the network.

Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has looked to transform the Indian Railways. Last year, the PM had announced a $124 billion five-year investment

stplan to bring the Railways into the 21 century. The government has focused on expanding the reach of

The accident has again raised questions about the safety of Indian Railways. Around 23 million people use the railway network of India daily; the railways also accounts for six per cent of the total employment in the organized sector. However, the safety and security of this network remains in dire need of immediate repair.

Around 150 killed in a train accident of the Patna – Indore Express


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n ex-serviceman from Haryana's Bhiwani a candlelight march organised by the Delhi Congress Adistrict, committed suicide by allegedly unit from Jantar Mantar to India Gate. Separately, consuming poison at Jantar Mantar in Delhi. The Delhi's Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia and soldier had left behind a suicide note, where he Chief Minister Arvind Kejiriwal were also detained stated the reason for his suicide was the lack of by the police. government's action on the OROP issue. Earlier, on

thApril 29 , veteran groups had called off protests The ex-servicemen have stated the government has following assurances from Defence Minister not implemented unconditional One Rank One Manohar Parrikar that their concerns would be Pension (OROP). The major demands of the addressed. veterans are equalisation of pension annually and

not five years, personnel opting for Pre-Mature Opposition political parties immediately rushed to Retirement (PMR) should also be eligible for the capitalize on the death of the solider, to corner the OROP, implementation from April 2014 and not July government and PM Modi. Delhi witnessed high 2014, take the highest pay scale of 2013 for revising political upheaval with Congress and Aam Aadmi pension and not the average of the maximum and Party (AAP) workers staging protests in Central minimum as the intended by the government and Delhi, leading to massive travel disruptions in the not to link the OROP with the Seventh Pay city. Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi was Commission.detained by the Delhi Police, after he unsuccessfully tried to meet the family members of the ex-serviceman at RML Hospital in the city. Later, he was detained again when he was leading

Former army soldier ends life over OROP; massive protests held by opposition in Delhi


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elhi's air quality was recorded at very poor Gurgaon district administration banned the burning Dlevels, especially in the early part of of waste, dry leaves, plastic, and any material that November immediately after Diwali, breaching could worsen the air quality.the hazardous 'red zone'. Air pollution in certain areas in Delhi has spiked up to 42 times the safe It was not only Delhi that was affected, even other limit. Burning of stubble in paddy fields, emissions cities in the Indo-Gangetic plain region suffered from vehicles, industries using coal for power and from high levels of pollution. Agra and Faridabad dust from construction activities and movement of also reported `very poor' air quality, while Kanpur vehicles, and burning of trash, are the major reported 'severe' levels. reasons for the rising high levels of pollution in the city. In the last few years, Delhi has consistently

remained one of the most populated cities in the rd th pollutants into the atmosphere by different actors. November 3 was the second worst day, in the last world. As per the WHO, New Delhi is the 11 most

Else the high levels of air pollution will continue to 10 years, in regards to the pollution levels in the polluted city in the world, with an annual average th have an adverse effect on the city's population. city. On November 5 , the city's three municipal PM2.5 measurement of 122. WHO recommends

corporations shut around 1,700 schools under its that PM2.5 should be below 10 as an annual jurisdiction, due to the high levels of pollution. The a v e ra g e . E x p o s u r e t o a v e ra g e a n n u a l government had also suspended construction concentrations of PM2.5 of 35 or above is activities for several days, to control the pollution associated with a 15% higher long-term mortality levels in the city. In addition, the government risk. The Delhi government as well as the decided to strictly enforce a ban on the burning of government at the Centre need to formulate new leaves and garbage in the city. Meanwhile, the legislations to regulate the levels of emission of

Air pollution levels in Delhi – NCR and parts of North India reach alarming levels



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Political Environment

Internal Security Situation

Extremism &

Terrorism

Civil Unrest

Crime Crime against women

Natural /Man-made Disasters

Pandemics Infrastructure

Emergency Services

State-wise Monthly Risk Ratings – November 2016

High Medium Low

Jammu & Kashmir

Himachal Pradesh

Punjab

Uttarakhand

Uttar Pradesh

Delhi NCR

Haryana

Rajasthan

Bihar

Jharkhand

Chhattisgarh

Odisha

West Bengal

Assam

Meghalaya

Overall Risk

Rating

States



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Political Environment

Internal Security Situation

Extremism &

Terrorism

Civil Unrest

Crime Crime against women

Natural /Man-made Disasters

Pandemics Infrastructure

Emergency Services

State-wise Monthly Risk Ratings – 2016November

High Medium LowOverall

Risk Rating

States

Arunachal Pradesh

Mizoram

Nagaland

Sikkim

Manipur

Tripura

Maharashtra

Goa

Madhya Pradesh

Gujarat

Telangana

Andhra Pradesh

Karnataka

Tamil Nadu

Kerala


ith the approaching winter, visibility is experiencing its worst air quality in five years. Wexpected to deteriorate across North India. The absence of moisture helps trap Poor visibility due to intense fog in the winter pollutants within the atmosphere. The heavy air months has a major effect on flight and rail pollution combined with fog-like conditions schedules in North India. North India generally results in smog, which is more dangerous than fog experiences fog towards the end of December and in terms of affecting visibility. Also, meteorological all through January, which leads to flight and train forces like stagnant air during the winter months disruptions. Early morning flights and trains are also keeps the pollution close to the ground. Due usually the worst affected. When the fog situation to which air quality across North India is worsens, it leads of cancellations of trains in the particularly poor during the winter months. Delhi, Ambala, Ferozepur, Moradabad and Lucknow Several major polluting activities increase as divisions. Road travel is dangerous especially when winter approaches like burning of more biomass to driving on highways in foggy conditions. The heat homes, and farmers burning the stubble off incidents of road accidents due to fog conditions their fields at the end of the harvest season. increases, especially in the early morning and late

night hours. The dip in temperatures, along with the Environmental experts have expressed concerns smog-like conditions, reduce the air quality, that air quality in Delhi and National Capital Region oscillating between the categories of poor and very (NCR) will deteriorate further after the week-long poor. Smog is a harmful mixture of smoke and fog ban on construction was lifted. Presently, the level which creates serious health hazards.of air pollution in the city has remained around the 'critical' level. The National Capital Region is

Air quality in North India expected to drop during Winters; smog cover likely to cause travel disruptions


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everal political rallies are scheduled, in the Meanwhile, Home Minister Rajnath Singh has Scoming month, in the poll-bound states of instructed security forces to be on alert due to the Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. BJP has planned a rally upcoming assembly elections in Punjab and Uttar to be addressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi Pradesh. The Home Minister highlighted security in December, besides an event where party chief issues that could come up due to political Amit Shah will address booth-level workers in the campaigns or external extremist forces during the state. In Punjab, four big rallies will be organized by election process. The escape of the Khalistan the BJP for Scheduled Castes (SC), farmers, women Liberation Force (KLF) chief Harminder Singh from and youth at Jalandhar, Fazilka Patiala and Punjab's Nabha jail ahead of the elections has raised Amritsar respectively. Aam Aadmi party chief concerns over security preparedness in the state. Arvind Kejriwal addressed 21 rallies in the state in Harminder Singh was later arrested in Delhi on

thNovember. November 28 . states are expected to be heightened in the run up to the assembly elections, slated for early 2017. In November, the BJP began Parivartan Yatra In Uttar Pradesh, after the last assembly polls in Traffic disruptions due to political rallies, are across Uttar Pradesh, to be spread over nearly 50 2012, over 11,000 communal incidents have

th expected to happen in several cities of these two days, starting from November 5 . The campaign occurred, as per police records. Police records th states. In addition, possibility of political violence will end in Lucknow on December 24 with a rally suggest that 23% of all communal incidents in the

cannot be ruled out. Businesses operating in these addressed by PM Modi. Separately, the Samajwadi state since 2012 were sparked by religious regions must continuously assess the ground Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, and Congress have intolerance such as violent disputes over vandalism situation for any major disruptions, so that business also been organizing several rallies across the or use of loudspeakers at places of worship.continuity remains unaffected. state. At the end of September Congress Vice

President Rahul Gandhi began his party's election Given the political importance that Uttar Pradesh campaign in the state with a 2,500 km kisan and Punjab hold for all national as well as several mahayatra. regional parties, the political activities in these

In the run-up to the Uttar Pradesh and Punjab elections, political protests and rallies expected to rise in these states

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r i m e M i n i s t e r N a r e n d r a z M o d i ' s quantity of notes for quick distribution. There is also Pannouncement of the demonetisation of an immediate need to put into circulation more of existing currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 was the new Rs 500 notes along with the Rs 2,000 to followed by long, anxious, and frustrating wait for reduce the strain on the Rs 100 denomination which the people outside banks and ATMs across the is already in short supply. The need for recalibration country. The distress for the common people is of ATMs for the new currency which are of different likely to continue for some time as was highlighted size than the previous notes, has also added to the

thsince November 9 , that the management of the troubles of the common people. Several banks are entire process was not well-planned and well- yet to complete the recalibration procedure. Even excuted. Replacement of the demonetized notes is though the initial hysteria and confusion, which considered a time-consuming exercise that prevailed immediately after the government's requires planning of the highest order. announcement, seems to have now subsided, the

general population is expected to continue to face and hospitals to accept the old series of notes until ATMs have been repeatedly running out of cash some hardships in the coming month, over

thDecember 15 . while banks have been dispensing more of the Rs withdrawal and deposit of cash, or in everyday

2,000 notes than those of lower denominations. transactions. For the coming month, the Unless enough smaller currency is available for government should make sure that the exchange in the economy, the higher communication with the public is done on a more denomination notes, especially that of Rs 2,000, regular basis. The Centre has already attempted to are not going to be useful for the public, for day-to- ease the pressure on the system by increasing day transactions. Economic experts have stated withdrawal limits, allowing for petroleum outlets that there is an urgent need to supply adequate

Demonetisation move expected to continue to pose issues for general population

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he Babri Masjid, a mosque in Ayodhya located few years, there have been no significant incidents Tin Faizabad district of Uttar Pradesh, was of violence reported on the anniversary of the attacked and demolished during a political rally by demolition of Babri Masjid. However, heavy

thHindu nationalist groups, on December 6 ,1992. security is deployed at the site and in various cities Following the demolition of the mosque, of India with significant Muslim population, to communal riots broke out across India, in which prevent outbreak of any kind of unrest. In the past,

thmore than 2,000 people were killed. Till date, on July 5 2005, the heavily guarded Babri Masjid there continues a debate on the history of the land complex was attacked by armed terrorists believed on which the mosque was built. Hindus have to be from the Pakistan-based terrorist group, traditionally regarded the site to be the birth place Lashkar-e-Taiba.

anniversary of the demolition of the mosque have of one of the major Hindu deity, Rama and it's the potential to lead to widespread violence. Heavy believed that there existed a temple at the In 2015, there have been multiple instances of security deployment is expected in Uttar Pradesh, location which was modified or destroyed to build churches being damaged, allegedly by Hindu Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad and other cities.the mosque. groups. With the BJP government at the centre,

fringe groups have attempted to make their A verdict by the Allahabad High Court divided the presence felt with minor incidents of stone-pelting land into three among the stakeholders. An appeal and vandalism. In 2016, communal tensions have is currently under review at the Supreme Court flared up, throughout the year, in various parts of over the future of the site. Religious violence in the country, especially over the attacks by cow-Ayodhya over the issue has been continuing since vigilantes on those they perceive as attacking or the 1850s with Hindu groups demanding the killing cows. The Babri Masjid debate is a establishment of a temple at the site. In the past contentious issue and even minor incidents around

thIncreased security likely ahead of the 24 anniversary of Babri Masjid demolition

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st th thw December 1 : December 11 and 12 :

stw December 1 :

stw December 1 :

thst th w December 12 :

w December 1 to 7 :st

w December 1 :th

w December 12 :ndw December 2 :

rd thw December 3 to 8 :

th thw December 5 : w December 12 :

thw December 5 :

thw December 6 :

thth w December 13 :

w December 6 :th

w December 18 :th

w December 6 :th

th th w December 18 : w December 6 to 10 :

thw December 20 :

ndth w December 22 :w December 8 :rdth w December 23 :w December 8 :thth w December 24 : w December 8 :th

w December 25 :th st

w December 8 : w December 31 :

16,000 cooperative credit societies in Maharashtra to w observe a token strike Diego Maradona to visit

thKohima on December 11 Arvind Kejriwal to hold a rally in Meerut, Uttar Pradesh

thand 12 Khasi Disability Association to stage protest in Shillong

Milad un- Hornbill Festival in Kohima and Dimapur, NagalandNabi/Id-e-Milad (Birthday of

Trinamool Congress to hold demonstration outside the Tea Prophet Muhammad)Board office in Kolkata

RPI's Gavai Trinamool Congress to hold protests outside banks; jute mill faction to hold a protest

workers to hold protests at Jangipur in Murshidabad morcha in Nagpur during Annual People's Liberation Guerrilla Army (PLGA) week the state's winter assembly

by Naxals session Rashtriya Lok Dal to protest at Jantar Mantar in Delhi, Members of

demanding loan waiver for farmers the National Federation of Indian Railwaymen in Himachal Pradesh State's power board to stage Ahmedabad, Vadodara and Rajkot divisions to observe a week-long protest demonstration in Shimla

thfrom December 12 Anniversary of Babri Masjid demolition

Anniversary of Parliament attack Trinamool to hold commemoration of the Babri Masjid Maratha-Kunbi communities to hold a joint protest morcha demolition as 'Sanhati Divas' in Kolkata

in Nagpur during the state's winter assembly session Death anniversary of Dr. B. R. AmbedkarArvind Kejriwal to hold a rally in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh Haryana Government to organise its first ever

Arvind Kejriwal to hold a rally in Bhopal, Madhya PradeshInternational Gita Mahotsav in Kurukshetra Arvind Kejriwal to hold a rally in Ranchi, Jharkhand Sarbat Khalsa to be held at Damdama Sahib Arvind Kejriwal to hold a rally in Jaipur, Rajasthan Arvind Kejriwal to hold a rally in Varanasi, Uttar PradeshPM Modi's rally in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh OBC community to hold a protest morcha in Nagpur during

the state's winter assembly session Christmas Shiromani Akali Dal to hold statewide agitation in Punjab New Year's Eve

over the Supreme Court ruling on the Sutlej – Yamuna Link Canal matter

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North India Event CalendarUttar Pradesh

Key Dates For December 2016


Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

7 9 10

17

26

14 16

1 2 3

4

19

29 30

6

27 28

15

21

25

5

1211

18 20 22 23 24

31

8

13

12


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he ruling government under the leadership of League for Democracy) rejected claims of military TAung Suu Kyi has come under increased brutality and maintained that the troops were international pressure for its failure to control the acting well within the framework of the law. This has degrading situation in the Rakhine province brought about sharp criticism from the UN, western pertaining to the persecution of the Rohingyas. countries including the UK and the US as well as After a relative lull in tensions, fierce military regional giants such as Thailand and China.backed fighting and persecution of the Rohingya population was seen in the Maungdaw district The 2008 Constitution enshrines deep political leading to increased displacement of refugees powers for the military by reserving over a quarter towards Bangladesh. Myanmar officials state that of the parliament seats for unelected military

thon October 9 three police posts along the officers, giving them an effective veto over Myanmar – Bangladesh border were attacked in a constitution changes. Aung Suu Kyi is still barred

Group (HRW) showed over 1200 burnt dwellings in coordinated manner. The military attributed these from holding the official position of the President Pwint Phyu Chaung village and Dar Gyi Zar region of attacks to a local militant group Aqa Mul due to a provision in the military-drafted the Maungdaw district. The Myanmar government Mujahideen (AMM). The officials also said that the constitution. This void is said to be a limiting factor has also not allowed foreign or independent AMM received funding by Middle Eastern for Suu Kyi and her party from playing a role in journalists as well as UN committees to visit the organizations via the porous border with limiting the Rohingya crisis. In addition to this, many area, to assess the situation and provide aid. There Bangladesh. The military has since been accused factions within the national Buddhist population has also been an increase in detentions of Rohingya of killings, property destruction and vandalism in still consider the Rohingyas to be outsiders and refugees within the Bangladesh border post of Cox the worst episode of government brutality in four oppose international intervention in solving the Town. The situation will be worsened with further years. crisis. combing actions of the military and their willingness to use gunships, under the cover of the official Suu Kyi has yet to issue an official statement, and Recent satellite images by the Human Rights Watch reason of purging out AMM militants. her office as well as her party, the NLD (National

Rohingya crisis escalates in Rakhine province; Aung San Suu Kyi criticized for lack of action

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India Monthly Risk Forecast - 2016 December


14


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tarting with the destruction of at least 10 Indian High Commission in Dhaka had reached out SHindu temples and several homes in the to the Bangladesh Government to ensure the safety thBrahmanbaria district on October 30 , and of the community. No group has so far taken

progressing to the sustained attacks on the responsibility for instigating the violence even indigenous Santals in Gaibandha district from though nearly 30 people were detained by

thNovember 7 , minorities have been subjected to a intelligence agencies. The Bangladeshi government fortnight of communal violence in Bangladesh. A has also announced a cash reward of 100,000 Taka second wave of attacks in Brahmanbaria on to any one providing information, which could lead

thNovember 4 , which spawned similar sectarian to the arrest of the instigators.violence against Hindus in Sirajganj and Jhalakathi

thdistricts on November 6 , has again raised Social media has an increasing trend in stirring up concerns over the safety of minorities in the violence in Bangladesh. Over almost two years, Hindu Community. This investigation was country. The reason that is said to have sparked Islamic radicals have carried out a string of attacks highlighted due to the inaction of the local police these incidents was a Facebook post that depicted on academicians, bloggers, foreigners and despite having knowledge of the attacks. The North the Hindu God Shiva at Mecca. Mobs in their members of religious minorities. A Hindu tailor was west of the country is being considered a hot bed for hundreds ransacked 15 temples and the homes of killed in April and a Hindu priest was hacked to radical Islamism, in recent years. Post the terror more than 100 families in Nasirnagar, northeast of death in July. Much of these attacks have been lone attack at a café in Dhaka, earlier in July this year, the Dhaka. wolf attacks and officials are finding it increasingly government has taken exceptional steps to root out

hard to detect patterns that can lead to the extremism from Dhaka. However, the government Initially a Hindu citizen Rasraj Das was convicted signature of certain Islamic groups. seems to have not taken enough action in other for posting the alleged images but was later regions in the country, which is being seen as a acquitted when intelligence reports indicated that Another political incentive being investigated is an move to maintain a political equilibrium. the image was posted from a system in Dhaka. The orchestrated plan aimed at grabbing lands from the

Attacks on Hindu temples and houses raises ethnic tensions in the country; several arrested for vandalism

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2 people were killed and over hundred people into the spotlight due to various factors including 5were left injured after a teenage suicide the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Project), bomber triggered a blast outside the Sufi shrine of increasing attacks by the Balochistan Liberation Shah Noorani in the Khuzdar District of Balochistan Army and attacks by the LeJ and Islamic State. Even

thon November 12 . The Islamic State claimed though the Islamic State is losing ground in Syria and responsibility for the attack via Amaq, its affiliated Iraq, and has also lost the commander of the Islamic news agency. Additional emergency services had State Khorasan (South Asian Front of the Caliphate), to be called from Karachi over 270 km away. Hafiz Saeed Khan to a drone attack in Afghanistan,

the IS is reported to have increased its footprint In October, the Islamic State had also claimed especially within the Baloch region.responsibility on an attack on the Quetta Police Training College (PTC) at New Sariab in which 61 The current turmoil in Balochistan, large Shia security forces were killed and another 164 population and holy sites as well as the general expressed their solidarity with the Caliphate. Both injured. On the same day, IS also orchestrated an neglect of the region by the Pakistani officials have the groups have similar objectives and that is to attack on a Pakistani Intelligence official in made it an ideal operational base for Islamic State establish a Sunni state under Sharia Law. The LeJ Charsadda District in Khyber Pakhtinkhwa. operatives. Another strategic advantage that the IS have superior ground information and networking

holds is that their modus operandi is different from and have been associated with aiding groups such Most Pakistani officials still claim that the Islamic the Taliban and they also do not have a physical as Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Harkat-ul-State has no presence in Pakistan and that the operating base, hence the Pakistani security Mujahideen (HuM) as well as the Taliban. The IS are attacks were carried out and planned by the LeJ infrastructure is unavailable to track sympathizers said to be increasingly recruiting more and more (Lashkar-e-Jhangvi). However, there was no and collect ground intelligence on the group. sympathizers as well as lone wolf operators who can statement made by the LeJ on the same. collaborate with other groups and attribute the

The LeJ have also been an important asset to the attacks to the Islamic State.The Balochistan Province has come increasingly Islamic State. Unlike the Taliban they have publicly

At least 52 killed and over 100 injured in a bombing on a Shia shrine in Balochistan province

15

Pakistan



suicide bomb attack on the Baqir ul–Uloom Taliban and Islamic State gaining ground in stAShia mosque in Kabul, on November 21 , left Afghanistan, the attacks on Shias have mounted

32 dead and 80 seriously injured. The Islamic State again. Most of these attacks have been claimed by (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack in what IS, in the past year or two. was the third major attack on Shias in the Afghan capital since July. The attack coincided on the Shia Meanwhile, the role of Iran has increasingly come

threligious observance day of Arbaeen, the 40 day under the equation. Iran has recently pledged of the martyrdom of Imam Hussein perceived by support to the rebuilding of Afghanistan and has Shias as the rightly heir to the Prophet also funded a railway project within the border Muhammad. Earlier in July, IS also claimed region of Herat. This has not gone down well with responsibility for a suicide bombing attack against the hardline Sunni groups of Afghanistan who see peaceful Hazara protest a Power Plant Project in this as an incursion of Shia majority Iran in the Bamiyan province. The attack left over 80 Afghanistan affairs. State has a different mode operations and much of dead. In October, a gunman attacked another Shia their decisions come from far flung places like Syria mosque in Kabul on the holy day of Ashura. The Islamic State is following the path that the and Iraq where Afghanistan ground intel gathering

Taliban had taken in 1993 by oppressing and capabilities are non-existent. The failure to provide Shias form about 10 to 15 per cent of the attacking the Shia population to instigate a civil war. adequate security cover to Shia dwellings and population, and were traditionally oppressed However, even though that seems like a distant religious places due to shortage of manpower, lack during the rule of the Taliban. However, post 2001 possibility in the current scenario, Shias remain the of political will and anti-Taliban operations have during the NATO led invasion the situation had target of attacks as the IS philosophy boycotts their kept Shia districts in Kabul and other regions of improved dramatically. Shias could openly existence. After the withdrawal of the coalition Afghanistan vulnerable to attacks by IS.celebrate and observe important days of forces, Afghanistan has relied heavily on American reverence and were given seats within the CIA support for thwarting Taliban attacks and Parliament. However, in recent years, with both recapturing Taliban positions. However, the Islamic

Islamic State claims responsibility for the bombing on a Kabul mosque targeting Shias

16


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PakistanSpotlight:Myanmar

Bangladesh Sri Lanka Nepal Maldives

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The MonthThat Was

Afghanistan



17


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Afghanistan Nepal MaldivesPakistanSpotlight:Myanmar

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The MonthThat Was

he Sri Lankan Minister of Justice, Wijedasa airstrike in Syria in July 2015. It has also been feared thTRajapakse, on November 18 , stated in the that some other Sri Lankans who had gone to Syria

Parliament that there was information about 32 may have also joined IS. Even the US State Sri Lankans, belonging to four families, having Department Country Report on Terrorism for Sri joined the Islamic State (IS) movement in Syria. Lanka, earlier this year, has pointed out IS as an The Terrorist Investigations Division (TID) has since emerging threat in Sri Lanka, to which the been investigating the links between the 32 Sri authorities have not paid attention due to the focus Lankans who joined IS and their relatives in Sri on a possible resurgence of the LTTE. However, the Lanka. Sri Lankan authorities have maintained that they

have been taking adequate steps, with the help of However, the Cabinet Minister, Rajitha Senaratne, political and religious leaders, to persuade local dismissed the claim made by the Minister of Muslims against joining extremist groups like IS. Justice. During a press conference, Senaratne claimed that the Justice Minister does not In July of this year, the Indian media had reported represent the views of the government. He added that a couple from India, who had supposedly that as per the armed forces intelligence reports, joined the Islamic State, were in Sri Lanka for over only four Muslim people had joined the IS but they two months before disappearing. The spread of were a family who had migrated out of Sri Lanka Islamic State ideology in Sri Lanka is of concern for and joined from abroad. India as well because it is an easily accessible

destination for Indians.Sri Lankan authorities have been on alert ever since reports came out about a 37-year-old local who had joined IS, and was reportedly killed in an

Government minister admits that 32 Sri Lankan Muslims have joined Islamic State

Sri Lanka



18


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Sri Lanka MaldivesAfghanistanPakistanSpotlight:Myanmar

Bangladesh

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The MonthThat Was

he Prachanda-led CPN (Maoist) government besides Province 2 without hill districts while the Thas introduced changes in the Constitution Tharus have been making a pitch for Tharuhat regarding the Parliament representation, earlier province. A consensus has been reached by the tri-this year. A key grievance is that the Constitution party meet, however, the Government still faces restricts the number of the Madhesi and Tharu opposition from within the CPN.representatives being elected by proportional representation (PR) to 45percent. This has led to The relative success of the tri party meet was also large scale protests by the Madhesi and Tharu met with opposition from within the CPN ranks community, and the CPN (M) and CPM (UML) especially within the Maoist stronghold of

rdfronts. On November 23 , the PM was handed a Nepalgunj. The CPN – UML was initially favouring three-day deadline to table an amendment bill the amendment but a contrasting statement from

The amendment process has been delayed by which would address these concerns. One of the leader Madhav Kumar Nepal stated that the UML political infighting since February this year. The solutions discussed at a tri-party meet involving front would not support the amendment. A press Prachanda government has come under increasing the CPN, Madhesi Front and the Federal Alliance release from the UML also stated that they would foreign pressure and local pressure due to the was to redraw the boundary of provinces launch protests in Parliament and on the streets. blockade that has severely halted the rebuilding proportional to the representation in the National Separating the hills from Tarai would strongly process post the 2015 earthquake. However, the Assembly, citizenship and other technical and undermine the UML's hold within that region. They UML is the second largest party in Nepal and has demographic factors. also demanded that the ruling parties CPN (M) and strong backing both constitutionally and locally and the Nepali Congress announce the date of the threaten to be a disruptive force in the amendment The Province No. 5 would be integrated into elections instead of focusing on amending the process.Province 4 and Province 6. The Madhesis have Constitution.

demanded another province along the plains

Political parties agree on move to amend Nepal's Constitution; Tharu group demands separate province

Nepal



19


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NepalSri LankaAfghanistanPakistanSpotlight:Myanmar

Bangladesh

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The MonthThat Was

our years since Mohamed Nasheed had to While withdrawing his support for Yameen, Fleave office as the President, four prominent President Gayoom has stated that the government Maldivian politicians have been imprisoned. In a no longer represented the “values of PPM”. He also recent political development, the ruling party's mentioned that the treatment meted out to him (Progressive Party of Maldives) leader and former was meant to serve a clear threat to all other President, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, has publicly political parties. refused to endorse President Abdulla Yameen, his half-brother for the 2018 elections. A bill was Last month, six ruling party MPs had cast their votes passed by the People's Majlis (Parliament) which with the opposition and Yameen's support base in has effectively suppressed the press and the People's Majlis had dropped to 47 from 53 in the commentators on social media. The country is 85-member House. Gayoom's refusal to be a part of

heavily in infrastructure in the country and is today faced with several social problems the Maldives United Opposition (MUO) prevents an planning to connect the airport island, Hulhumale, particularly the rising radicalism among the united campaign against the government. However, with the capital island, Male, via a bridge. India has country's youth many of whom have travelled to since the President is now in control of almost all so far steered away from the political developments Syria to join the Islamic State. The current regime, independent commissions and other arms of in Maldives in the last three years.after facing criticism from the Commonwealth, governance, the loss of majority in Parliament will

withdrew from the organization in October. The not bring about an end to his tenure. Election Commission in the country is now considered a partisan body and has disqualified There are reports of the Maldives United few of the main opposition parties’ top-ranking Opposition regrouping in Colombo and has politicians from the primary membership of the declared its aim of overthrowing the Yameen party. The President himself is battling serious government. The President is now likely to turn for corruption charges. support to India and China. China has invested

President Yameen moves to solidify his hold over the party; oust half-brother and former president Gayoom

Maldives



20


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MonthlyForecast

The MonthThat Was

RegionalSnapshot

November Events & Incidents

st§November 1 :

rd§November 3 :

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Chhattisgarh: A constable of district police had been allegedly abducted by the Maoist cadres in Sukma district.

Bihar: A group of 200 Maoist cadres attacked a construction company site at Kharaundha station in Nawada District of Bihar, and set ablaze four vehicles including two SUVs.

Chhattisgarh: As many as nine Maoist cadres surrendered in Bijapur district of Chhattisgarh, during a bandh called by the LWEs to protest an encounter.

Jharkhand: The Maoist cadres blasted the house of a former Maoist Uday Mahto of Pirtand block in Giridih district, and set a rest room on fire in the same locality under the Pirtand Police Station in the district.

Odisha: The Maoist cadres triggered two landmines blast near Hatamuniguda in Rayagada district.

Chhattisgarh: A police official was killed by suspected Maoists in Rajnandgaon district.

Maoist cadres set on fire equipment engaged in road construction at Hesakocha village in Seraikela-Kharsawan district.

Jharkhand: Suspected Maoists set ablaze four road construction machineries in Khunti district.

Chhattisgarh: Police in Chhattisgarh have booked DU Professor Nandini Sundar and 10 others about the killing of a tribal villager, who was killed by suspected Maoist in Sukma district.

Odisha: 94 Maoist supporters and 52 militia members surrendered before Police in Malkangiri district.



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th§November 9 :

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Jharkhand: Maoist cadres blew up the ancestral house of their former comrade Uday Mahto in Pirtand block in Giridih district. Chhattisgarh: A Police jawan was hacked to death by suspected Maoist in Bijapur district of Chhattisgarh. Chhattisgarh: A Maoist cadre was killed in an exchange of fire with SFs in Kanker district. Chhattisgarh: A Maoist 'deputy commander was killed in a gun-battle with SFs in Kondagaon district. Jharkhand: Giridih Police arrested senior Maoist 'commander' from Motileda village under Bengabad Police Station in Giridih district. Jharkhand: A company of women CRPF has been designated to fight against LWE in State. The women will also conduct search operations in Maoist

dominated areas of Jharkhand. The women company under CRPF's 135 Bn carried out a search operation against Maoists at Karra and other Maoist-stronghold areas in Khunti district.

Bihar: The Jehanabad District Court pronounced capital punishment to 10 of the 16 accused in the 1999 carnage in Senari village of Jehanabad district, in which 34 people were killed by the erstwhile MCC, presently merged with the Maoist.

Jharkhand: A businessman, who owned a Nursing Home, was killed and his vehicle set ablaze, by Maoists near Raisilli Pahar under Kuchai Police Station of Seraikela-Kharsawan district.

Chhattisgarh: Six Maoist cadres were killed in an encounter with SFs near Bugum-Perma forest in Dantewada district. Odisha: Maoist cadres killed a contractor supervisor by slitting his throat and set ablaze construction instruments at Bhitarakota village under

Patangi Police limits in Koraput district. Chhattisgarh: The SFs detained a villager who was carrying INR 600,000 in cash to get the currency exchanged for the Maoist, near Muriyapada in

Bijapur district. Odisha: At least 145 Maoist sympathisers including 33 women surrendered before the police in Malkangiri district. Chhattisgarh: A top Maoist cadre carrying a cash reward of INR 500,000 on his head surrendered in Dantewada district. Jharkhand: Six Mwere killed and over 600 bullets and a dozen Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) recovered after a gun-battle with the CRPF

commandos in the jungles of Jharkhand's Maoist hotbed of Latehar district. Kerala: Three Maoists were killed by police in Nilambur forests in Malappuram. Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu Police intensify anti-Maoist drive at tri-junction of Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

November Events & Incidents





ExpertSpeak

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The MonthThat Was

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Naxal trends


Demonetisation policy has an effect on the funding of Maoists

Prime Minister's policy of demonetisation of high denomination notes has reportedly hit funding in key areas of Left wing extremism(LWE). The Maoist insurgent groups are considered the worst hit, and stand to lose out on a large amount of cash that they had amassed through extortion of government companies, mining corporate, businesses and private contractors. The sources of funding of these insurgent groups is also through these illegal activities, payments for which is made usually in cash.

Police reports from LWE hit areas of Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Odisha have stated that almost no activity in the forest areas has taken place, since the demonetisation was announced. Cash of 44.25 lakhs in the banned denominations and jewellery was also recovered from Kondagaon. Meanwhile, Maoists have resorted to threatening the elderly to exchange notes from the banks. Police in the region have conducted search operations to ensure Maoist sympathisers do not support such a move. Security around the banks and ATMs was increased in the region as the Maoists may attempt to attack. As per the Home Ministry, Maoists collect over Rs 150 crores annually from illegal activities such as prostitution, extortion, and murder. After demonetisation, Maoists are facing severe shortage of commodities and are prone to take desperate measures to ensure survival. A group of 10 Maoists have surrendered to the police in Chikamangalur, Karnataka and stated that they have no means to survive. There is also speculation that their finances would be hit about only 20 percent to 30 percent because of the demonetisation move.

The demonetisation is stated to have had an exponentially large impact on the whole structure of Maoist funding. This may not be the decline of Maoism but could result in drastic measures taken by the group's members to ensure survival. There is a need for the government to undertake stringent measures so as to cut the sources of funding for the Maoists.

23

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ExpertSpeak

NaxalTracker

In a sign of growing presence of Maoists in Southern India, police kill two Maoists in an encounter in Kerala

The tribal communities have confirmed the presence of Maoists in region where the three States of Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu meet in the Muthanga forest reserve, adjoining the Bandipur and Mudumalai wildlife sanctuary, all part of the Nilgiris bio-reserve. After months of operations in the tri-junction, the Kerala Police's anti-Naxalite Thunderbolts Force reported a major exchange of fire. Two top Maoist leaders including a woman were killed in a gunfight with the Thunderbolts, the anti-Maoist division of the Kerala Police in the Padukka forest range near Karulai in

thNilambur in Malappuram district on November 24 .

As per an intelligence report, 57 armed Maoists, including 23 women, are operating in the state. Most of the Maoist leaders were announced wanted by Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Chhattisgarh governments. The Maoists in the tri-state region are mainly reported to be active there with different names and intend to recruit from villages and tribal communities in the area. Apart from targeting poorer tribals, the Maoists are also said to have identified a Sri Lankan Tamil resettlement colony near Mananthavady for possible recruits. Central intelligence agencies have also warned of infiltration by Maoists into the southern states in the wake of joint ambush operation launched by Odisha Police and Greyhounds of Andhra Pradesh against Maoists.

The tri-junction forest area has been emerging as a hot bed after Maoists openly started exhibiting their influence in the region by coming out with frequent press releases and publishing Chenkad, an official mouthpiece of the Nadukani squad of the Maoists. Though the Maoists have not achieved much success on this front due to implementation of a well-formulated action plan, the efforts of the Maoist to open a new theatre in south India is a cause for serious concern. The Central Government is closely monitoring the situation and sensitising the states of Kerala, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu to keep a check on the activities.

Naxal trends



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Afghanistan Bangladesh

Pakistan

India

Sri Lanka

th st§ November 14 : §November 1 :

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th th§November 28 : §November 5 :

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Both the Taliban and the Islamic State claimed to have shot Police claimed to have detained five militants with bombs and down an Afghan military helicopter in the central Afghan province of Ghor. jihadi books in Bongram Kuchapara Shalban forest in Joydevpur of Gazipur

A suicide bomb attack on the Baqir ul–Uloom Shia mosque in district.Kabul left 32 dead and 80 seriously injured. IS claimed responsibility for the The CTTC unit of Police arrested four people in the Darussalam attack. area in Dhaka, on charge of supplying arms and IEDs to Gulshan café attack

At least seven Islamic State militants were killed in an airstrike 'plotter' and slain Bangladesh-origin-Canadian, Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury and carried out by US forces in Haska Mina district of eastern Nangarhar province. his 'missing' associate, Nurul Islam Marjan.

Two suicide bombers recruited by the Islamic State were Police seized explosives, arms and Jihadi books from the house of a arrested by the Afghan intelligence in Kabul. suspected militant who was injured in an explosion in Puthia upazila in Rajshahi

district. Police seized explosives, five machetes, two Chinese axes, and photocopies of two Jihadi books. Islamic State claimed responsibility for a blast outside the Sufi

shrine of Shah Noorani in the Khuzdar District of Balochistan. Police arrested four suspected militants of JMB from Shahbajpur area of Rangpur district. Counter-Terrorism Department of Punjab province claimed

that it had busted an IS cell operating in Lahore and arrested eight suspects. Police pressed charges against eight alleged militants of banned militant outfit JMB in the case filed for killing Rajshahi University Professor, AFM Rezaul Karim Siddiquee. US citizens in India warned of possible attacks by Islamic State.

A court in Bangladesh indicted seven members of a banned A 41-year-old man was arrested from Rajasthan's Sikar district Islamist group in the killing of a Japanese man last year. The attack had been for allegedly “actively supporting” the Islamic State.claimed by IS. As many as 68 persons have been arrested across the country so

far for being sympathisers or supporters of the Islamic State, the government Minister of Justice Wijedasa Rajapakshe told parliament that 32 informed the Lok Sabha. Of the 68, 50 were taken into custody by the National

well-educated Sri Lankan Muslims of four families have joined the Islamic State in Investigation Agency (NIA) and other intelligence agencies, this year. Syria.

Islamic State South Asia Tracker – 2016November

ExpertSpeak

The MonthThat Was



25

NaxalTracker

Incident

Analysis

stthem since the July 1 terror attack. The Neo-JMB – led by ex-main JMB leader Sohel Mahfuz alias Four active members of the Neo-Jama'atul Hatkata Mahfuz – lost much of its strength after Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), who reportedly losing around four dozen of its members including supplied arms and arms-making material for the

st top leader Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury, in operations July 1 attack on a café in Gulshan, Dhaka, were by security forces. However, the Neo-JMB, which is detained from the Darussalam area of Dhaka city

nd reportedly affiliated with the Islamic State, is said to on November 2 . Later in the month, police be gaining strength slowly through fresh arrested five other members of the Neo-JMB; an recruitment in the northern districts. Last month, Islamic spiritual leader and an explosives expert the police claimed that four leaders of the Neo-JMB were among the group's members detained

th have fled to India. during a series of raids in Dhaka on November 16 th

and 17 . The Bangladeshi authorities have held According to the police, the old JMB members are the Neo-JMB responsible for the Dhaka café siege also busy raising funds through various criminal where several foreigners were killed. activities. The JMB hinted about its regrouping

thprocess in a statement issued on June 27 this year by taking credit for more than 1,100 attacks carried

It has recently emerged that the leaders of the two out since 2000. The statement mentioned factions of the outlawed militant group are Salauddin as its leader and claimed that they had six reportedly trying to reorganise the outfits even as active groups who have killed 11 people.security forces have continued crackdown on

JMB

Islamic State Report for Bangladesh

ExpertSpeak


RegionalSnapshot

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The MonthThat Was



26

NaxalTracker

Incident

Analysis

Investigation Agency (NIA) and different state law undertaken by the government to counter enforcement agencies in 2016. radicalisation.The anti-terrorist squad (ATS) of Rajasthan

arrested an alleged Islamic State (IS) operative from Sikar district who was reportedly involved in collecting and transferring funds for the terror A state-wise breakup of arrests of the 50 IS-inspired organisation from Dubai. According to the ADG of suspects this year reveals that Maharashtra and the ATS, the accused had been raising funds from Telangana accounted for the highest number of India, Bangladesh, and UAE and transferring to the arrests at 11 each, followed by Karnataka with IS for the last two years through hawala. According seven, Kerala with six, Uttarakhand with four, West to the officials, he is a highly educated person and Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu with two has completed a Bachelor's degree in Commerce, each and Rajasthan, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, a diploma in computer science, as well as an MBA; Jammu & Kashmir, and Bihar accounting for one and, was working as an Assistant Financial arrest each. Manager at a reputed firm in Dubai since 2003.

Stating that the IS was using various platforms to Meanwhile, as many as 68 persons have been propagate its ideology and attract recruits from arrested so far across the country for being across the world, the Minister of State for Home sympathisers or supporters of the banned terrorist Affairs said that the Indian intelligence and security outfit Islamic State IS, the government informed establishment was keeping a close watch to identify

rdthe Lok Sabha on November 23 . Of the 68, 50 elements engaged in anti-national activities. In were taken into custody by the National addition to that, various other steps are being

Islamic State Report for India

ExpertSpeak


RegionalSnapshot

MonthlyForecast

The MonthThat Was



27

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Incident

Analysis

groups, particularly Sunni sectarian groups. media publication, the recent bomb attack in Pakistani officials continue to deny that the IS has Balochistan province, ahead of the launch of the Islamic State's news service in the Middle East developed any meaningful operations in the CPEC project from Gwadar port, has raised a claimed responsibility for the bombing of a Shia

th country. The recent attack, however, shows that the security alarm for the USD 46 billion project.shrine in Balochistan on November 12 , which IS is rapidly increasing its influence in several killed 52 people and wounded several others. The countries of South Asia, by partnering with local blast at the Shah Noorani shrine occurred while sectarian groups. hundreds of people were inside. This is the second

fatal attack in Pakistan claimed by the Islamic State In Afghanistan, members of the Afghan and (IS) leadership in a month.Pakistani Taliban have switched allegiances and

th rebranded themselves as IS fighters. Meanwhile, Meanwhile, on November 17 , the Counter-Balochistan Home Minister stated that the recent Terrorism Department of Punjab province claimed attacks claimed by the IS were carried out by that it had busted an IS cell operating in Lahore and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi's Al Alami faction. The arrested eight suspects. The CTD spokesperson Balochistan attack came within a month of a claimed that while some members of the group declaration by the military that the Islamic State's had already travelled to Syria and Afghanistan, plans to expand into the country had been others were preparing to leave when the raid took thwarted. place.

Another fallout from the recent spate of IS-claimed attacks in Balochistan is the security concern

Security analysts have warned that while the IS surrounding the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

may not have a formal structure in Pakistan, the (CPEC). According to reports in a state-run Chinese

group enjoys the support of banned militant

Islamic State Report for Pakistan

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RegionalSnapshot

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The MonthThat Was




RegionalSnapshot

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Introduction

The distress for the common people

upon the extent to which black money is held in the perishable and lower value goods, the disruption is th form of high-value currency notes of the specified likely to last longer than the time taken to normalize On November 8 , Prime Minister Narendra Modi

denomination. the currency availability. Around 80 deaths were announced the demonetization of existing reported, till the end of November, across the currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000. The

The only other time in India's economic history country directly or indirectly, linked to the declaration was immediately followed by panic, when a demonetisation measure was taken up was demonetisation. As per media reports some of the chaos, and excitement in the country. In the recent in 1978 by the Morarji Desai government. In 1978, deaths occurred due to exhaustion after standing years, there seems to be no precedent globally of a the government had decided to scrap Rs. 1,000, Rs for hours in long queues. country attempting such a measure. Currency in 5,000 and Rs 10,000 denomination notes. The circulation accounts for 14 percent of the GDP in overall impact of this measure in the ordinary lives Demonetisation is expected to adversely affect India, whereas in most other large economies it is of the citizens then was negligible because the those sectors which have linkages to the less than 5 percent of the GDP. The Rs 500 and Rs scrapped currency only comprised 1.8 percent of unorganized economy. The market for consumer 1,000 notes which have ceased to be legal tender the total money in circulation. durables and non-durables is also likely be affected comprised nearly 86 percent of the notes in

in the short and medium term as large circulation. The increase in the circulation of these denomination purchases could be made online notes in the past five years has been rather than through brick and mortar outlets. As per disproportionate to the economy's growth. The Since the announcement was made, there have several economic experts, in the short-term there reason advanced by the government for this been reports of cash shortage, long queues outside will be a negative impact in cash-intensive sectors measure is to fight counterfeit currency and ATMs, and hardships due to inability to buy daily such as such as real estate, construction, and provide a stable formal economy by curtailing tax items. For most supply chains that deal with discretionary household consumption. As for its evasion. The efficacy of this move will depend

Demonetisation: Artificially created distress or an effective policy intervention?

NaxalTracker

ExpertSpeak


29

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political implications opposition parties, will use denomination notes available at the ATMs meant it is expected to send a strong signal about India's this opportunity to attack the government. On that they kept running out of cash at frequent anti-corruption drive. It could also help to

thNovember 28 , opposition parties, held a 'protest intervals. The banks also had to recalibrate the accentuate the government's financial inclusion day' across the country to highlight the distress ATMs to dispense the new currency notes of Rs 500 drive, as more households will move towards faced by the common man due to the and Rs2,000, which are of different size than the efficient banking and payment infrastructure. demonetisation move. previous currencies. The government's assurances Economists have predicted that the bank deposits

on cash availability and extension of deadline for base is expected to increase by 0.5 - 1.4 percent of It is also predicted that if not managed well this government services to accept old currency notes GDP. There will also be a switch from savings of measure could also lead to an artificial recession in for payment did little to mitigate the situation on unproductive physical assets to financial assets. the economy. Even civic bodies in some cities like the ground. In addition, there existed some NITI Aayog vice chairman, Arvind Panagariya, stated the BEST buses in Mumbai, a, vital mode of public confusion for the people over the use of old that demonetisation will help to lower inflation in transport for lakhs of commuters daily, had currencies in transactions for a limited time, as the the country in the future. The demonetisation drive refused to accept Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes. RBI had issued 27 circulars in 14 days (till November will also help to boost cash deposits in the Jan Dhan

nd22 ), since the policy was announced. accounts, of which 43 percent have remained ATMs across the country have also repeatedly dormant in the last two years. failed to meet the high demand for currency. ATM machines in most places were dispensing mostly The demonetisation move quickly caught the On the positive side, the measure has boosted notes of Rs 100 denomination while some were attention of foreign media and several columns in transactions through payment gateways; mobile stocked with Rs 50 notes. The lower leading newspapers were dedicated towards wallets and online retails. If properly implemented,

The positive impact of demonetisation


ExpertSpeak




NaxalTracker

RegionalSnapshot

MonthlyForecast

The MonthThat Was


ExpertSpeak

highlighting the move. Prime Minister Modi's solution. It must be backed by monitoring and move was compared to a similar step taken by the investigation by the Income Tax departments and European Central Bank which has discontinued the law enforcement agencies. For now, the short-the use of 500-euro notes to stop their use in illicit term hardships caused by this policy seems to activities. The plan, kept top secret until Mr. overshadow the proposed long-term impacts.Modi's announcement, was hailed by financial analysts as bold and, potentially, transformational for India. If the reforms work, in theory it could broaden the government's tax base. The sale of Indian bonds, which are highly popular among emerging-market investors, have increased since the announcement. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) spokesman Gerry Rice said that the institution supports the measures to fight corruption and illicit financial flows in India.

In terms of addressing the black money issue, demonetization will be ineffective if it is a one stop

Conclusion


Arpita is an Analyst at MitKat's Information Services Team. Before joining MitKat she worked as a Research Assistant at IIM, Bangalore.She completed her M.A. in International Relations from the Jindal School of International Affairs.

- Arpita Roy ,

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