India Diesels Walsh

8/14/2019 India Diesels Walsh

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Michael P. WalshInternational Consultant

Chairman, Board of Directors, ICCTChennai, India

7 December, 2007

Outline Climate, Fuel Consumption, Urban Air Pollution Closely

Linked

Vehicles Are Important for Each

Many Different Policy Instruments Are Being Used

Must Select Policies/Measures that Provide Co-Benefits

or Ancillary Benefits; Not Trading One Problem for theOther


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Energy Industries

Manufacturing Industries and Construction

Transportation

Other Sectors

Fugitive Emissions0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1000 Tg CO2 Equivalent

1990

2004

Annex 1 Party Greenhouse Gas

Emissions in the Energy Sector

9%

-8%

24%

-4%

-17%

Energy Industries

Manufacturing Industries and Construction

Transportation

Other Sectors

Fugitive Emissions-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Change 1990-2004 (%)

Annex 1 Party Greenhouse GasEmissions in the Energy Sector

Transportation is Most Rapidly Growing Contributor!


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World primary energy consumption

BP Statistical Review of World Energy2007

Energy Demand in the Transport Sector: Annual Average Growth Rate(%) by Region 2004 - 2030

In 2004,94 % of transportenergy use wasbased on fossil oil.

The share will onlyslightly decrease to93 % in 2030.

Source: IEA WEO 2006

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Worl

dOE

CD

OECD

Nort

hAme

rica

USA

OECD

Pac

ificJa

pan

OECD

Euro

pe

Europ

eanU

nion

Tran

sition

Eco

nomi

es

Russ

ia

Deve

loping

Cou

ntries

Deve

loping

Asia

China

India

Latin

Ame

rica

Braz

il

Midd

leEa

st

Afric

a

G

rowth(%p.a.)


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Looking To The Future Transport Growth isExpected to Continue Without Interventions

Final Energy Consumption by Sector 2004 / 2030

(World Reference Scenario)

Total: Annual Average Growth Rate2004/2030: 1.6 %

Transport: Annual Average GrowthRate 2004/2030: 1.8 %

Source: IEA WEO 2006

Industry

Industry

Transport

Transport

Residential,services andagriculture

Residential, services

and agriculture

Non-energy use

Non-energy use

02000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

2004

2030

Energy Demand (Mtoe)

Can Diesel Cars Be Part ofthe Solution? 20-30% Lower Fuel Consumption Than Comparable

Gasoline Fueled Vehicle (Maybe!)

Outstanding Performance

Much Cleaner Than in the Past

But Current Indian and European Standards Allow

Much Higher NOx than From Gasoline Cars

Much Higher PM than Gasoline Cars (Except Where Tax orOther Incentives Encourage Use of PM Filters)

Clean Diesel Technologies Exist But Are Only Requiredin the US and Japan to Date

8


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Bellagio Principles Design Programs & Policies That

Reduce Conventional, Toxic,Noise and Greenhouse Emissionsin Parallel

Treat Vehicles and Fuels As ASystem

New Vehicle Standards forGreenhouse Emissions &Conventional Pollutants Should BeFuel Neutral

Expect & Require BestTechnologies and FuelsWorldwide in Both

Industrialized and DevelopingCountries WWW.THEICCT.ORG

JanuaryMarch

MayJuly

SeptemberNovember

0

100

200

300

400

PM2.5

PM10

WHO PM2.5

WHO PM10

Source: Dr. SenguptaCPCB

Concentration of PM 2.5 & PM 10in 2005 Delhi (B.S.Z. Marg)

1

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

PM 10 & 2.5CONTINUOUS

MONITOR AT

BHADUR

SHAH ZAFAR

MARG (ITO),

NEW DELHI

PM 10 & 2.5CONTINUOUS

MONITOR AT

BHADUR

SHAH ZAFAR

MARG (ITO),

NEW DELHI


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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Valuesinug/m3

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

RegisteredVehiclePopulationinMillions

Residential Industr ial Traffic Inte rsec tion Vehicle Population

Residential NA NA NA 120 139 127 131

Industrial NA NA NA 150 167 140 140Tra ffic Intersection 200 216 191 180 270 244 228

Vehicle Population 3 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.1

1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

RESPIRABLE SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER (RSPM) LEVELS IN AMBIENTRESPIRABLE SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER (RSPM) LEVELS IN AMBIENTRESPIRABLE SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER (RSPM) LEVELS IN AMBIENTRESPIRABLE SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER (RSPM) LEVELS IN AMBIENT AIRAIRAIRAIR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Valuesinug/m3

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5


Residential Industr ial Traffic Inte rsec tion Vehicle Population

Residential 29 27 29 28.7 33 37.9 40

Industrial 35 34 34 29 35 36 42

Tra ffic Intersection 63 60 59 67 75 94 89


1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

OXIDES OF NITROGEN (NOX) LEVELS IN AMBIENT AIR


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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Valuesinug/m3

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5


Residential Indus trial Tra ffic Intersec tion Vehicle Population

Residential 345 349 311 304 397 311 330

Industrial 363 361 439 354 442 349 339

Tra ffic Intersection 426 418 490 476 533 509 500


1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER (SPM) LEVELS IN AMBIENT AIR

0000

20202020

40404040

60606060

80808080

100100100100

120120120120

140140140140

160160160160

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Year

Concentration(g/m

3)

Res. Areas NAAQS

0000

20202020

40404040

60606060

80808080

100100100100120120120120

140140140140

1999

1999

1999

1999

2000

2000

2000

2000

2001

2001

2001

2001

2002

2002

2002

2002

2003

2003

2003

2003

2004

2004

2004

2004

2005

2005

2005

2005

YearYearYearYear

Concentration(g/

m3)

Concentration(g/m3)

Concentration(g/m3)

Concentration(g/

m3)

Res. Areas NAAQS

0000

20202020

40404040

60606060

80808080

100100100100

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Year

Co

ncentration(g/m3)

Res. Areas NAAQS

Delhi Mumbai

ChennaiKolkata

0000

20202020

40404040

60606060

80808080

100100100100

120120120120

140140140140

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Year

Concentration(g/m3)

Res. Areas NAAQS

Trends in Annual Average Concentration of RSPM

in residential areas of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata.


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Relative Pollutant Concentrations vs.

Distance from I-405 Freeway in Los Angeles(Zhu et al., 2002a)

Fixed Site Monitors Tend To Underestimate the Vehicle Problem!

16

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Time (120 minutes)

Outside Vehicle 1 Inside Vehicle 1

HDD Delivery VanDiesel Charter Bus

ARB In-Vehicle Study

Real-Time Fine Particle Counts

(L.A. Freeway, AM Rush Hour, Vent Open)

Tota

lParticleCounts/cc

Fixed Site Monitors Tend To Underestimate the Vehicle Problem (2)


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17

580

495

408

262

50

Mobikes Walking In Cars In Buses WHO Guideline

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

micrograms/cubic meter

Commuters Exposure to Particulate Matter and Carbon Monoxidein Hanoi, Vietnam: A Pilot Study

East West Center Working Paper No. 64, Nov 2006

PM10 Exposures in Hanoi

18

Health Impacts of Air Pollution AreBroad and Life Threatening

Developmental EffectsDevelopmental Effects

HospitalizationHospitalization

Asthma Attacks and BronchitisAsthma Attacks and Bronchitis

PrematurePremature

DeathsDeaths

CancerCancer


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Increased Risk of PrematureMortality Due To 10g/m3 PM2.5

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

All Causes

Pulmonary

Lung Cancer

Journal of American Medical Association, March 2002

20

OZONE AND PM CAUSE SERIOUS ADVERSE HEALTH

EFFECTS INCLUDING PREMATURE DEATH


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Blood Altered rheology

Increased coagulability

Translocated particles

Peripheral thrombosis

Reduced oxygen saturation

Systemic Inflammation

Oxidative Stress Increased CRP

Proinflammatory mediators

Leukocyte & platelet activation

PM Inhalation

Brain

Increased cerebrovascular

ischemia

Heart Altered cardiac

autonomic function

Increased dysrhythmic

susceptibility

Altered cardiac

repolarization

Increased myocardial

ischemia

Vasculature Atherosclerosis,

accelerated progression of and

destabilization of plaques

Endothelial dysfunction

Vasoconstriction and Hypertension

Lungs Inflammation

Oxidative stress

Accelerated progression

and exacerbation of COPD

Increased respiratory symptoms

Effected pulmonary reflexes

Reduced lung function

Multiple Mechanistic Pathways Have Complex Interactions And Interdependencies

Combustionproducts

Minerals

Salt

Diesel sootDiesel soot

Source: Umweltbundesamt, Wien


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Vast areas of snow in Antarctica melted in the summer of 2005Satellite data shows an area the size of California melted

NASA: This is the most significant thawing in 30 yearsMelting in several areas including high elevations and far inland

Scientific Consensus: Climate Change is Occurring & is Caused By Man


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PM And Black Carbon EmissionsImportant For Both Urban Air Pollution

and Global Climate Change WHO Estimates ~ 800,000 Premature Deaths Each Year

From All Sources Primarily Urban PM

Black Carbon A Potent Greenhouse Pollutant- GWP

Estimates Vary

Hansen et al 2000 for 20 Year

Jacobsen 800-1200

Delucchi CEF ~ 4700

Hotter Days Lead to HigherHotter Days Lead to HigherEmissions and More SmogEmissions and More Smog

Source: Air Resources Board, 2000

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Ozone(ppm)

Temperature (oF)

hLos AngelesOzone Levels(1995-1998))

h10 warmestyears of thelast century all

occurred withinthe last 15

years.

California Ozone Standard


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27Euro 4 2005 Euro 5 2010 Euro 6 2015 US Tier 2 Avg0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Grams/Km

Gasoline NOx Diesel NOx Diesel PMx10

EU and US Light Duty Gasoline andEU and US Light Duty Gasoline andDiesel Vehicle StandardsDiesel Vehicle Standards

May/Will Include ANumber Based PMStandard

Clean Vehicle Technologies Are Already Entering The Marketplace

28

Modern Diesel?Modern Diesel?


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29

Low Sulfur Fuel is Critical to Get Maximum BenefitsLow Sulfur Fuel is Critical to Get Maximum Benefits

Sensitivity to Sulfur With Catalyzed Soot FiltersSensitivity to Sulfur With Catalyzed Soot Filters

2005 2008 2015 2025

0

10

20

30

40

50

Millions

truck

bus

cars

MC-three

LCV

Source: Segment Y

Diesel Vehicle Population inIndia

India Must Act Rapidly As Vehicle Growth Is Intensifying All Diesel Vehicles!


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2005 2008 2015 2025

0

10

20

30

40

50

Millions

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

% Diesel

Diesel

Gasoline

% Diesel

Source: Segment Y

Diesel Car Population in India

India Must Act Rapidly As Vehicle Growth Is Intensifying All Diesel Cars!

2007 20100

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

EU

India

Metros

Gasoline Car NOx Limits

2007 20100

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

EU

India

Metros

Diesel Car NOx Limits

Why Does India Continue To LagEurope?


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2007 20100

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12 EU India Metros

Diesel Car PM Limits


34Euro 4 2005 Euro 5 2010 Euro 6 2015 US Tier 2 Avg0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Grams/Km

Gasoline NOx Diesel NOx Diesel PMx10

EU and US Light Duty Gasoline andEU and US Light Duty Gasoline andDiesel Vehicle StandardsDiesel Vehicle Standards

May/Will Include ANumber Based PMStandard

Why Does the EU Lag the US?


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35

Does it Make Environmental SenseTo Buy a New Diesel Car in

India..?

If replacing an Old Diesel Car,Yes

If Instead of A New Gasoline Car,No Unless

US Tier 2 or Euro 5 Standards ApplyULSD Available

2007 20100

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12 EU India Metros

Diesel Car PM Limits


36

0 20 40 60 80 100

Tier 4 nonroad

Heavy-duty

highway

Tier 2 Light-duty

highway

$ Billion Annually in 2030

Costs & Benefits of Clean Fuels and Vehicles

cost

benefitTotal Cost: $11 billionTotal Cost: $11 billionTotal Benefits: $175 billionTotal Benefits: $175 billion


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37

Now That Clean Vehicle Technology

is Available Challenge #1: Get Advanced Technologies Introduced

Rapidly ForNew Vehicles Around the World

Challenge #2: Clean Up the Existing Legacy Fleet

Availability of Ultra Low Sulfur Fuel is Critical Step

Indian Automobile SectorIndian Automobile Sector

Private Vcl.

12.83%

CommercialVcl.

3.94%3-Wheelers

4.04%

2-Wheelers

79.19%67033Total

6674Others

475252-Wheelers

3488Goods Vehicles

727Buses

8619Cars/Jeeps/Taxis

Nos. inThousand

Category

67033Total

6674Others

475252-Wheelers

3488Goods Vehicles

727Buses

8619Cars/Jeeps/Taxis

Nos. inThousand

Category

Source: MoRT&H/2003-04 figures Source: SIAM/2005-06 figures

As of 2005:

2nd Largest Two-Wheeler Manufacturer in the World

Worlds largest Motorcycle Manufacturer is in India

2nd Largest Tractor Manufacturer in the World

5th Largest Commercial Vehicle Manufacturer in the World

3rd Largest Car Market in Asia


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Hong Kongs Approach 1/1/2006 New Gasoline Cars Meet Euro 4 standards

1/1/2006 New Diesel Cars Meet CA LEV2 standards

1/1/2007 Light Trucks Between 2.5-3.5 tons Meet Euro4 standards

10/1/2006 New standards will be Introduced for Trucksover 3.5 tons

ULSD (Maximum 50 PPM) Required; Tax IncentiveIntroduced Dec 1 For 10 PPM Sulfur Limits

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40


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411995 2000 20050

50

100

150

200

250

300

(tons/year)

PM Emissions

0

1

2

3

4

5

Thousands

Number of Buses

PM Buses

The Bottom Line: From 1995-2005,Fleetwide PM Reduced 97% While Fleet

Grew By 33%

As Part of An Overall Strategy, Retrofits and CNG Work

Conclusions Oil consumption, Climate Change and Urban Air

Pollution Are Very Serious Problems

Transportation is a Major Contributor To Each Problem

These Problems Are Closely Interrelated

A Wide Variety of Strategies/Policies Exist which Provide Co-Benefits or AncillaryBenefits

Fuel Efficiency or GHG or CO2 Emissions Standards

Transportation Improvements

Vehicle or Fuel Taxes

Policies Encouraging Diesel Vehicles Can Be Counterproductive Unless CoupledWith Stringent Fuel Neutral Emissions Standards

Seriously Hurt Urban Air Pollution

Undercut Climate Policy with Excess Black Carbon and NOx emissions

Low Sulfur Fuels (50 ppm or less) and Strong Government Policies Will BeRequired To Obtain Clean Diesels

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THANK YOU

India Diesels Walsh

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