India-China RelationsStrategy and Politics

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Contents• Objective• Brief history• Economic progress• Weakness• Military (non) parity• India’s threats and opportunities• Politics• Open discussion

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Objective• Generate curiosity towards China threat• Strategically dangerous to consider Pakistan and China as separate

• India’s main stream media has failed• Pakistan centric thinking is myopic

• SOME topics are hand-picked that are currently topical

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Brief history• First consolidated China dynasty was Qin Dynasty in 221 BCE• Han Dynasty was the dynasty that created the Han cultural identity

approx 206-220 BCE• 1913AD China's dynastic rule ended

• Some Bharatiya Itihaas reference: <sorry not able to recollect the reference>

• China had started generating inimical influence way back during Mahabharata

• Samratha Jarasandh the Magadha Emperor had started promoting alien culture in Bharatvarsha

• It is said, one of the prime objectives of Krishna supporting Pandavas was to use them as a weapon against Jarasandh

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Brief history• Republic of China was founded in 1912-1949 which was the elite

controlled government• Present communist dispensation came to power in 1949 via the so-called

“People’s War”, named the country People’s Republic of China (PRC)• They carried out "cultural revolution" , restructured and sanitized

education• Re-written history• Massive central control (China has traditionally been a highly centralized

entity in cycles)• Massive blood-shed• Millions died in wrong policies (for ex. Farmers were asked to make Steel,

which created unusable low quality steel and resulted in food grain shortage)

• Many such documented and undocumented experiments on people

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Economic progress• China was following the Stalinist model on forming the PRC• Centralized and planned economy• Soviet Union provided military (read Nuclear Bomb) and economic aid• Soviet-China border dispute in Xinjiang leading to conflict• Nixon angered by India AND sensing Chinese willingness forged secret

alliance with them – in 1971 (Enemy’s friend is Enemy and Enemy’s enemy is a Friend – Arthashastra Mandala theory)

• China’s economic reforms (can be compared to Opium for 1300 million people)

• American assistance for further economic development• Tacit approval for Nuclear proliferation to Pakistan

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Economic progress• Heavily export oriented economy• Global factory, working on massive volumes and razor thin margins• 1H09 China car sales surpass USA• 2.3 Trillion in USD reserves• Massive growth figures

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Economic progress• Sector Gap in Years w.r.t China (China ahead)

• Services Export 1• Ext Debt 2• Mobile Phone 3.5• Service Import 3.5• Private Consumption 5• Auto -Passenger 5• Domestic Aviation 5• Foreign Trade dependency 5• Goods Imports 5.5• Foreign Reserves 5.5• Dependency on Exports 6• Auto Production 7.5• GDP 9• Goods Exports 11• Railway Length 12• Deposits 13• Foreign Tourist Arrival 15• FDI 15• Industrial Output 15• Loans 15• Electricity Output 16• Installed Elec Capacity 17• Population 17• Yarn Production 22• Steel Production 23

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Weaknesses• A considerable area of China is not Chinese• Under the façade of Central Communist authority Han hegemony is furthered• Uighur and Tibet regions that form the West and South-West part of China

have been annexed in recent history• Uighur region was well known in Bharatvarsha for gems and precious stones• Tibet historically acted as a buffer state between the Han invaders and India

• Chinese claims and occupation of these regions don’t have historical evidence

• There are more than 56 minorities in China• Ruthless Han cultural domination and transplant in different regions of the

country• Like all autocratic regimes, absence of avenues for dissent is a major

handicap• Rural riots is a real possibility if Exports don’t pickup as envisaged

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Weaknesses

Uighur

TibetanIndia’s Ladakh

Mongol

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India China military (non) parity• China officially accepts defense spending of 30 billion USD compared

to India’s 2009-10 budget of 30 billion USD• The real defense budget of China is expected to be anything from 70 to

150 billion USD (since massive fudging by the PRC government is expected)

• With much larger economy 4T vs 1.3T (China vs India), they can spend much more

• Massive numerical and qualitative superiority w. r. t India in Nuclear strategic weapons

• Chinese PLAN navy has 630 vessels compared to India’s 250 (although India holds advantage with more advanced platforms and highly trained crew)

• Submarine superiority of 47 to India’s 16 is worrisome, since these could be used against India in an Indo-Pak conflict

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India’s threats and opportunities• India-China border dispute:

• China’s claims on Indian Ladakh, Sikkim and Arunachal is an unfinished dispute (1962 Line of Control)

• China has carried out infrastructure development and force deployment in these regions

• Heavy combat aircraft deployment coupled with Tibet railway link has made force mobilization that much more easier for China

• Short and Medium range missile volley to destroy forward IAF bases• Pakistan-China link up as was threatened in Kargil would make India fight

war on 2 fronts• Kargil was a bait for India which was wisely recognized by Vajpayee govt.• Indian Nuclear missiles were forwarded to thwart Chinese designs

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India’s threats and opportunities• China has massive numerical superiority in ALL services• Indian response:

• In 1967 Indian Army fought back a numerically superior force and repulsed them twice (Nathula and Chola Incident)

• Relative peace after getting a bloody nose• India increasing force deployment along China border• 400000 vs 220000 troops (China vs India)• Indian troop deployment backed up with better air support (Tezpur, Assam

converted to host Su-30 MKI strike and superiority aircraft)• MLRS & Artillery deployment increased• Deterrent parity in the area• Slow infrastructure development on Indian side is worrisome

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India’s threats and opportunities

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India’s threats and opportunities

Choke point on China

SLOC

Andaman & NicobarIndia’s

strategic Naval and Air

base

Seychelles

Maldives Lakshadweep Islands

Choke point on China SLOC

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Politics• India’s reactive policy-making can be seen from the previous slides• Troop deployment, Troop funding, Equipment funding, EVERYTHING

has been politicized• Communist parties in the previous dispensation were a show-stopper

for most of India’s actions against China• At a global level, China has heavily invested and cultivated the

democratic party in USA• Obama election has been detrimental to India’s national interests• Clinton clan is vested in China, tough times ahead• Sharam-Al-Sheikh declaration is already available as an example of US

arm-twisting

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Politics• Vacuum created by US withdrawal will likely be filled by China• India’s challenge is to generate growth to MAINTAIN the gap with CHINA• Failure to do so has far reaching consequences• Building a STRONG Nuclear deterrent and a true Blue water Navy to

effect Sea-denial for China• Nuclear deterrent to obviate the threat of Nuclear strike• Cultivating east Asian nations like Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan, etc (like they

have cultivated Pakistan, Bangladesh, etc)• To effect any of the points, a HUGE and STRONG economy is a pre-

requisite• Our performance in agriculture and manufacturing is abysmal

• Goes down to basic Infrastructure problems like Electricity, Roads, Water • Everything finally comes down to “roti kapda aur makaan” for the masses, that is

a pre-requisite

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Open Discussion