INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FEBRUARY … IIP Feb 2017.pdfContact:The Index of Industrial...

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ICRA Limited HIGHLIGHTS The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) contracted by 1.2% in year-on-year (YoY) terms in February 2017, in contrast to our expectation of a mild growth (+1.6%). Although the weakness in the industrial performance in February 2017 was pervasive, it partly reflected an unfavourable base effect. While the performance of basic goods (+2.4% in February2017) was bolstered by the healthy 7.1% expansion in coal output, the remaining use-based categories all displayed contraction in February 2017. The sharp YoY decline in output of sugar (-41.6%) and cigarettes (-37.7%) were key factors leading to the considerable 8.6% de-growth in consumer non-durables production in February 2017. The capital goods sub-sector recorded a base effect-led contraction of 3.4% in February 2017, despite the striking growth of rubber cables (+241.2%) and cement machinery (+116.5%), amidst considerable de-growth in other items. All the use-based groups except intermediate goods recorded a weaker performance in February 2017 relative to January 2017. Manufacturing output contracted by 2.0% in February 2017, with as many as 15 of the 22 sub-sectors of manufacturing, accounting for 42.3% of the IIP, recording a YoY decline in that month. Available data for March 2017 paints an improved picture, with resumption of growth in auto production, and higher growth of coal output and electricity generation, as well as in non-IIP indicators such as cargo handled at major ports and consumption of some fuels, suggesting a receding impact of the note ban. OVERVIEW The IIP contracted by 1.2% in February 2017, in contrast to the 1.9% YoY growth in February 2016 (refer Chart 1 and Table 1), weaker than our forecast of a mild growth (+1.6%). Four of the five use-based categories recorded YoY contraction in February 2017, namely consumer non-durables (-8.6%; -4.9% in February 2016), capital goods (-3.4%; -9.3% in February 2016), consumer durables (-0.9%; +10.4% in February 2016) and intermediate goods (-0.2%; +4.9% in February 2016). In contrast, the performance of basic goods (+2.4% in February 2017; +5.4% in February 2016) was bolstered by the healthy 7.1% expansion in coal output in February 2016. The IIP reverted to a contraction in February 2017 from the revised 3.3% growth in January 2017, partly led by an unfavourable base effect related to a shorter number of working days. All the use-based groups except intermediate goods recorded a weaker performance in February 2017 relative to January 2017. The de-growth in consumer non-durables production worsened to 8.6% in February 2017 from 3.0% in January 2017. Moreover, the performance of capital goods (to -3.4% from +10.9%) and consumer durables (to -0.9% from +6.7%) deteriorated to a contraction in February 2017 from a healthy growth in the previous month. IIP excluding capital goods recorded a mild contraction of 0.9% in February 2017 compared to the 2.5% growth in January 2017. Moreover, the pace of growth of basic goods eased to 2.4% in February 2017 from 5.3% in January 2017. However, the de-growth in intermediate goods narrowed to 0.2% in February 2017 from the revised 2.0% in January 2017. Additionally, the sequential deterioration in the IIP to a contraction of 1.2% in February 2017 from the INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FEBRUARY 2017 Industrial output records pervasive weakness in Feb 2017, contracting by 1.2%, on the back of an unfavourable base APRIL 2017 Contact: Aditi Nayar +91 124 4545 385 [email protected] Mukul Gupta +91 124 4545 383 [email protected] Medha Sinha +91 124 4545 399 [email protected]

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Page 1: INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FEBRUARY … IIP Feb 2017.pdfContact:The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) contracted by 1.2% in year-on-year (YoY) terms in February 2017, in contrast

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HIGHLIGHTS

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) contracted by 1.2% in year-on-year (YoY) terms in February 2017, in contrast to our expectation of a mild growth (+1.6%). Although the weakness in the industrial performance in February 2017 was pervasive, it partly reflected an unfavourable base effect.

While the performance of basic goods (+2.4% in February2017) was bolstered by the healthy 7.1% expansion in coal output, the remaining use-based categories all displayed contraction in February 2017. The sharp YoY decline in output of sugar (-41.6%) and cigarettes (-37.7%) were key factors leading to the considerable 8.6% de-growth in consumer non-durables production in February 2017. The capital goods sub-sector recorded a base effect-led contraction of 3.4% in February 2017, despite the striking growth of rubber cables (+241.2%) and cement machinery (+116.5%), amidst considerable de-growth in other items.

All the use-based groups except intermediate goods recorded a weaker performance in February 2017 relative to January 2017.

Manufacturing output contracted by 2.0% in February 2017, with as many as 15 of the 22 sub-sectors of manufacturing, accounting for 42.3% of the IIP, recording a YoY decline in that month.

Available data for March 2017 paints an improved picture, with resumption of growth in auto production, and higher growth of coal output and electricity generation, as well as in non-IIP indicators such as cargo handled at major ports and consumption of some fuels, suggesting a receding impact of the note ban.

OVERVIEW

The IIP contracted by 1.2% in February 2017, in contrast to the 1.9% YoY growth in February 2016 (refer Chart 1 and Table 1), weaker than our forecast of a mild growth (+1.6%). Four of the five use-based categories recorded YoY contraction in February 2017, namely consumer non-durables (-8.6%; -4.9% in February 2016), capital goods (-3.4%; -9.3% in February 2016), consumer durables (-0.9%; +10.4% in February 2016) and intermediate goods (-0.2%; +4.9% in February 2016). In contrast, the performance of basic goods (+2.4% in February 2017; +5.4% in February 2016) was bolstered by the healthy 7.1% expansion in coal output in February 2016. The IIP reverted to a contraction in February 2017 from the revised 3.3% growth in January 2017, partly led by an unfavourable base effect related to a shorter number of working days. All the use-based groups except intermediate goods recorded a weaker performance in February 2017 relative to January 2017. The de-growth in consumer non-durables production worsened to 8.6% in February 2017 from 3.0% in January 2017. Moreover, the performance of capital goods (to -3.4% from +10.9%) and consumer durables (to -0.9% from +6.7%) deteriorated to a contraction in February 2017 from a healthy growth in the previous month. IIP excluding capital goods recorded a mild contraction of 0.9% in February 2017 compared to the 2.5% growth in January 2017. Moreover, the pace of growth of basic goods eased to 2.4% in February 2017 from 5.3% in January 2017. However, the de-growth in intermediate goods narrowed to 0.2% in February 2017 from the revised 2.0% in January 2017. Additionally, the sequential deterioration in the IIP to a contraction of 1.2% in February 2017 from the

INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FEBRUARY 2017

Industrial output records pervasive weakness in Feb 2017, contracting by 1.2%, on the back of an unfavourable base

APRIL 2017

Contact: Aditi Nayar +91 124 4545 385 [email protected] Mukul Gupta +91 124 4545 383 [email protected] Medha Sinha +91 124 4545 399 [email protected]

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revised 3.3% growth in the previous month, was sharper than the slide in core sector growth (to +1.0% in February 2017 from +3.4% in January 2017; refer Chart 4). In terms of the sectoral classification, the performance of all the sectors, namely, manufacturing, electricity and mining, weakened in February 2017 relative to February 2016 (refer Chart 2). Manufacturing output contracted by 2.0% in February 2017 in contrast to the muted 0.6% growth in February 2016, exerting the key drag on the industrial performance in that month (refer Chart 3). As many as 15 of the 22 sub-sectors of manufacturing, accounting for 42.3% of the IIP, recorded a YoY decline in February 2017. Mining output growth dipped to 3.3% in February 2017 from 5.0% in February 2016. Moreover, the pace of expansion of electricity generation eased to a marginal 0.3% in February 2017 from 9.6% in February 2016. The pace of growth of the IIP in January 2017 was revised to 3.3% from 2.7%, led by consumer durables (to +6.7% from +2.9%), capital goods (to +10.9% from +10.7%), intermediate goods (to -2.0% from -2.3%) and consumer non-durables (to -3.0% from -3.2%). Nevertheless, industrial growth slowed to a marginal 0.4% in the first 11 months of FY2017, from 2.6% in the same months of the previous fiscal, led by a weaker performance of all the use-based categories except basic goods. Moreover, the IIP has recorded a contraction in six of the 11 months of this fiscal.

OUTLOOK

The pace of growth of the output of Coal India Limited (CIL) improved sharply to 11.6% in March 2017 from 6.5% in February 2017, which is likely to boost mining growth in the just-concluded month. Moreover, initial data released by the CEA indicates an improvement in YoY growth of electricity generation to 5.4% in March 2017 (+11.8% in March 2016) from 0.3% in February 2017 (+9.6% in February 2016), despite an unfavourable base effect. The sequential uptick in March 2017 reflects a turnaround in thermal electricity generation to a growth 5.2% compared to the mild contraction of 0.3% in February 2017, as well as an improvement in the pace of growth of hydro electricity generation to 12.3% in March 2017 from 10.7% in the previous month. According to the data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), aggregate auto production expanded by 5.0% in March 2017 after contracting by 0.9% in February 2017, which would support manufacturing growth. The output of commercial vehicles and motorcycles rebounded to a growth of 2.8% and 0.6%, respectively in March 2017, after contracting for the trailing three months. In addition, the pace of growth increased in March 2017 relative to the previous month for scooters (to +14.9% from +0.7%) and passenger vehicles (to +10.3% from +6.3%). Available data for March 2017 paints an improved picture, with resumption of growth in auto production, and higher growth of coal output and electricity generation, as well as in non-IIP indicators such as cargo handled at major ports and consumption of some fuels, suggesting a receding impact of the note ban. Accordingly, the IIP is likely to post a pickup in March 2017 relative to the marginal 0.3% growth in March 2016 and the initial contraction in February 2017. Although overall volume expansion is likely to remain weak in Q4 FY2017, earnings would dictate the trend in GVA growth of the manufacturing sector.

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Table 1: Trend in IIP Growth

Sectoral Use-Based Classification IIP Mining Manufacturing Electricity Basic Capital Intermediate Durables Non-Durables

Weight 100.00% 14.16% 75.53% 10.32% 45.68% 8.83% 15.69% 8.46% 21.35%

Month Jan-16 -1.6% 1.5% -2.9% 6.6% 1.9% -21.6% 2.8% 5.6% -3.2% Feb-16 1.9% 5.0% 0.6% 9.6% 5.4% -9.3% 4.9% 10.4% -4.9%

Jan-17 3.3% 5.3% 2.9% 3.9% 5.3% 10.9% -2.0% 6.7% -3.0% Feb-17 -1.2% 3.3% -2.0% 0.3% 2.4% -3.4% -0.2% -0.9% -8.6%

April-Jan FY2016 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 5.1% 3.5% -1.4% 2.3% 11.5% -1.5% April-Feb FY2017 0.4% 1.6% -0.3% 4.6% 4.2% -14.0% 2.1% 4.7% -2.9%

Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), ICRA research

Chart 1: YoY Growth in IIP Chart 2: YoY Growth in Sectoral Indices

Source: CSO; ICRA research Source: CSO; ICRA research

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SECTORAL GROWTH Manufacturing: Manufacturing output contracted by 2.0% in February 2017 (+0.6% in February 2016), after having expanded by 2.9% in January 2017 (-2.9% in January 2016), partly reflecting an unfavourable base effect. This is in sharp contrast to the pickup in growth of non oil non primary merchandise exports to 14.8% in February 2017 from a marginal 0.2% in January 2017 in value terms, which may have been partly on account of higher prices of commodity exports. Overall, output of manufacturing contracted by 0.3% in April 2016-February 2017, in contrast to the 2.3% growth in April 2015-February 2016. The number of sub-sectors of manufacturing recording a YoY decline in output (refer Tables 2 and 3) increased to 15 in February 2017 (with a weight of 42.3%) from 13 in January 2017 (with a weight of 41.1%). The pace of contraction of food products & beverages worsened for the third consecutive month to 21.7% in February 2017 from 14.8% in January 2017, led by sugar (-41.6%; refer Annexure B) and molasses (-39.0%). In particular, the contraction in output of sugar dampened industrial growth by 1.7% in February 2017. In addition, the de-growth in textiles widened to 4.1% in February 2017 from a muted 0.3% in January 2017, partly reflecting the considerable 66.4% decline in the output of woollen carpets. The contraction in the output of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel widened to 0.9% in February 2017 from 0.2% in January 2017. The contraction in other non-metallic mineral products also worsened to 13.2% in February 2017 from 11.4% in January 2017. As per the CSO, the de-growth in cement output (with a weight of 2.4% in the IIP) weighed upon the IIP by 0.5% in February 2017. Similarly, the pace of contraction in machinery & equipment deteriorated to 5.6% in February 2017 from 0.3% in the previous month. Plastic machinery (-52.2%) and sugar machinery (-47.8%) recorded a sharp contraction in February 2017, whereas cement machinery recorded a robust growth (+116.5%). The pace of contraction worsened in February 2017 relative to the previous month for wood and wood products (to -11.4% from -10.9%) and office, accounting & computing machinery (to -20.6% from -16.0%). In contrast, the pace of contraction narrowed in February 2017 relative January 2017 for fabricated metal products (to -3.9% from -4.0%) and furniture, manufacturing (to -8.7% from -10.5%). The de-growth in other transport equipments also eased to 12.1% in February 2017 from 13.4% in January 2017, despite a substantial decline the output of ship building and repairs (-49.7%) and three-wheelers (-24.5%).

Table 2: Sub-Sectors Displaying Contraction in February 2017

Source: CSO, ICRA research Table 3: Sub-Sectors Displaying Contraction in February 2017

Sub-Sectors Weight Growth in Feb 17

Comment

Food Products & Beverages 7.3 -21.7% Coke, Refined Petroleum Products & Nuclear Fuel

6.7 -0.9%

Contracted in January 2017

Textiles 6.2 -4.1%

Other Non-Metallic Mineral Products 4.3 -13.2%

Machinery & Equipment N.E.C. 3.8 -5.6%

Fabricated Metal Products, Except Machinery & Equipment

3.1 -3.9%

Furniture; Manufacturing N.E.C. 3.0 -8.7%

Other Transport Equipment 1.8 -12.1%

Wood & Products Of Wood & Cork Except Furniture; Articles Of Straw & Plating Materials

1.1 -11.4%

Paper & Paper Products 1.0 -1.8%

Luggage, Handbags, Saddlery, Harness & Footwear; Tanning & Dressing Of Leather Products

0.6 -5.7%

Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery

0.3 -20.6%

Tobacco Products 1.6 -42.8%

Expanded in January 2017

Publishing, Printing & Reproduction Of Recorded Media

1.1 -0.3%

Medical, Precision & Optical Instruments, Watches & Clocks

0.6 -19.8%

Source: CSO, ICRA research

Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Number of Sub-Sectors 17 13 15 Weight in the IIP 50.7% 41.1% 42.3% Combined Growth -6.9% -7.0% -10.4%

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Moreover, the de-growth in paper & paper products and luggage, handbags, saddlery, harness & footwear etc. narrowed to 1.8% and 5.7%, respectively in February 2017 from 3.8% and 13.2%, respectively, in January 2017. After increasing by 2.7% in January 2017, the output of tobacco products declined by 42.8% in February 2017, led by the 37.7% contraction in cigarettes. Moreover, the data published by the CSO indicated that the decline in the output of pan masala, with a weight of 0.1% in the IIP, dampened the IIP growth by 0.3% in February 2017. Moreover, the output of publishing, printing & reproduction (-0.3%) and medical, precision & optical instruments (-19.8%) posted a contraction in February 2017 after expanding in the previous month (+1.7% and +0.3%, respectively). Seven sub-sectors of manufacturing, with a weight of 33.2% in the IIP, recorded a YoY expansion in February 2017. The pace of growth of basic metals eased somewhat to 9.9% in February 2017 from 12.4% in January 2017. The data published by the CSO indicated that the robust expansion in HR coils/skelp (29.1%) and stainless steel (+24.2%; with a combined weight of 1.9% in the IIP) bolstered the IIP print by 0.5% in February 2017. Moreover, the 90.1% increase in output of electric sheets also supported the growth of this sub-index in February 2017. The growth in output of electrical machinery and apparatus moderated to 17.4% in February 2017 from the high 42.4% in January 2017, partly on account of the steep contraction in aluminium conductor (-29.3%), which also dampened the performance of the IIP by 0.2% in February 2017. In contrast, the high growth in rubber insulated cables (+241.2%), boosted the IIP growth by 0.7% in February 2017. Moreover, the growth of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers declined to 2.8% in February 2017 from 8.3% in January 2017. Additionally, the pace of growth of chemical & chemical products eased to 5.9% in February 2017 from 7.4% in January 2017. The healthy expansion in antibiotics (+25.6%), supported the growth of chemical & chemical products in February 2017. Growth in wearing apparels improved to 10.7% in February 2017 from 9.5% in January 2017, reflecting the expansion in apparels (weight of 2.0% in the IIP) which boosted the IIP print by 0.4% in February 2017. However, the deep contraction in leather garments (-22.0%) weighed upon the performance of this sector in February 2017.

Table 4: Contribution to the Manufacturing Sector by Sub-Sectors Sub-Sectors Weight Growth

in Feb 2017

Contribution to Manuf.

Growth Basic Metals 11.3 9.9% 1.6% Electrical Machinery & Apparatus N.E.C. 2.0 17.4% 0.6% Chemicals & Chemical Products 10.1 5.9% 0.6% Wearing Apparel; Dressing & Dyeing Of Fur 2.8 10.7% 0.4% Motor Vehicles, Trailers & Semi-Trailers 4.1 2.8% 0.2%

Others Displaying Expansion 3.0 4.0% 0.2%

Others Displaying Contraction 42.3 -10.4% -5.6%

Manufacturing 75.5 -2.0% -2.0%

Source: CSO, ICRA research

Chart 3: Contribution to IIP Growth in February 2017

Source: CSO; ICRA research

Mining, 0.3%Basic,1.0%

Manufacturing-1.6%

Capital, -0.4%

Electricity, 0.0%

Intermediate, 0.0%

Durables, -0.1%

Non Durables,-1.7%

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Mining: Mining output growth on a YoY basis eased to 3.3% in February 2017 from 5.3% in January 2017, reflecting the sharp deterioration in the performance of natural gas (to -1.7% from +11.9%) and crude oil (to -3.4% from +1.3%) and despite the improvement in growth of coal output (to +7.1% from +4.8%; refer Table 5 and Annexure C). The pace of growth of mining output declined to a muted 1.6% in April 2016-February 2017, from 2.4% in the same months of the previous fiscal. Electricity: The growth of electricity generation eased to a marginal 0.3% in February 2017 (+9.6% in February 2016) from 3.9% in January 2017 (+6.6% in January 2016), led by an unfavourable base effect.

According to the data released by the CEA, thermal electricity generation contracted by 0.3% in February 2017 (+12.8% in February 2016), after having posted a growth of 3.9% in January 2017 (+8.8% in January 2016), reflecting an unfavourable base effect. However, the pace of expansion of hydroelectricity generation doubled to 10.7% in February 2017 from 4.7% in January 2017. Moreover, the plant load factor also increased to ~61.8% in February 2017 as

compared to ~60.5% in January 2017. The growth of electricity generation moderated to 4.6% in the first eleven months of FY2017 from 5.1% in April 2015-February 2016.

Table 5: YoY Growth of Coal, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Coal Crude Oil Natural Gas Weight 4.379 5.216 1.708 Dec-15 5.3% -4.1% -6.1% Jan-16 7.9% -4.7% -15.2% Feb-16 3.3% 0.7% 1.2% Dec-16 4.4% -0.8% 0.0% Jan-17 4.8% 1.3% 11.8% Feb-17 7.1% -3.4% -1.7%

Source: Index of Eight Core Industries, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Office of the Economic Advisor; ICRA research Chart 4: YoY Growth in IIP and Core-Sector Industries

Source: CSO; ICRA research

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USE-BASED CLASSIFICATION Basic Goods: The growth of basic goods output slowed to 2.4% in February 2017 (+5.4% in February 2016) from the revised 5.3% in January 2017 (+1.9% in January 2016; refer Chart 5 and Annexure A), partly reflecting an unfavourable base effect. According to data published by the CSO, the high growth in the output of HR coils (29.1%) and the mineral index, with a combined weight of 15.5% in the IIP, boosted the IIP growth by 0.8% in February 2017. Moreover, stainless/alloy steel and electric sheets recorded a high growth of 24.2% and 90.1%, respectively, in February 2017. In contrast, molasses recorded a contraction of 39.0% in that month. Additionally, the YoY decline in the output of cement dampened the IIP growth by a considerable 0.5% in February 2017. Overall, the growth of basic goods output improved to 4.2% in April 2016-February 2017 from 3.5% in April 2015-February 2016. Capital Goods: The performance of the volatile capital goods sector slipped to a contraction of 3.4% in February 2017 (-9.3% in February 2016), from the double-digit growth of 10.9% in January 2017 (-21.6% in January 2016; refer Chart 6), also led by an unfavourable base effect. The output of three-wheelers (-24.5%), plastic machinery (-52.2%), aluminium conductor (-29.3%), sugar machinery (-47.8%) and ship building & repairs (-49.7%) contracted on a YoY basis in February 2017. In particular, the latter tends to witness lumpy order completion. Moreover, the de-growth in aluminium conductors exacerbated IIP contraction by 0.2% in February 2017, according to data released by the CSO. In contrast, rubber insulated cables, a particularly volatile component, recorded a sharp growth of 241.2% in February 2017, while output of cement machinery increased by 116.5%. Notably, rubber insulated cables boosted the performance of the IIP by a considerable 0.7% in February 2017; excluding this item, the IIP would have contracted by a sharper ~1.9% in February 2017. The contraction in capital goods output worsened to a sharp 14.0% in April 2016-February 2017, from the mild 1.4% in the same months of FY2016. This was the worst performance among the use-based categories in FY2017. Intermediate Goods: The pace of contraction of the output of intermediate goods narrowed to 0.2% in February 2017 from the revised 2.0% in January 2017. The production of biaxially oriented polypropylene film increased by a sharp 25.5% in

Chart 5: YoY Growth of Basic Goods

Source: CSO, ICRA research

Chart 6: YoY Growth of Capital Goods

Source: CSO, ICRA research

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February 2017. Nevertheless, the pace of growth of intermediate goods eased to 2.1% in April 2016-February 2017 from 2.3% in the same months of FY2016. Consumer Durables: The output of consumer durables contracted by 0.9% in February 2017 (+10.4% in February 2016), in contrast to the revised growth of 6.7% in January 2017 (+5.6% in January 2016; refer Chart 7), partly reflecting an unfavourable base effect. In particular, the output of woollen carpets with a weight of 0.3% in IIP, declined by 66.4% in February 2017. The growth of consumer durables eased to a modest 4.7% in April 2016-February 2017, from 11.5% in the corresponding months of FY2016. Nevertheless, the performance of this sub-index remained superior to the other use-based industries in the first eleven months of FY2017. Consumer Non-Durables: The pace of contraction of the output of consumer non-durables widened to 8.6% on a YoY basis in February 2017 (-4.9% in February 2016) from a revised 3.0% in January 2017 (-3.2% in January 2016; refer Chart 8). The considerable 41.6% contraction in output of sugar, with a substantial weight of 1.5% in the IIP, dampened industrial growth by 1.7% in February 2017, according to the data released by the CSO. Moreover, the de-growth in the output of pan masala with a mild weight of 0.1%, dragged the IIP growth by 0.3% in that month. In addition, contraction in output of cigarettes (-37.7%) and leather garments (-22.0%) adversely impacted the performance of consumer non-durables in February 2017. In contrast, apparels with a substantial weight of 2.0% in the IIP, boosted the performance of the IIP by 0.4% in February 2017. Moreover, the output of antibiotics, with a weight of 2.4% in the IIP, increased by 25.6% in February 2017. Cumulatively, the contraction in the output of consumer non-durables worsened to 2.9% in April 2016-February 2017 from 1.5% in the corresponding months of the previous fiscal.

Chart 7: YoY Growth of Consumer Durables

Source: CSO; ICRA research Chart 8: YoY Growth of Consumer Non-Durables

Source: CSO, ICRA research

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ANNEXURE A Chart 9: YoY Growth in Mining Chart 10: YoY Growth in Manufacturing

Source: CSO; ICRA research Source: CSO; ICRA research

Chart 11: YoY Growth in Electricity Chart 12: YoY Growth in Basic Goods

Source: CSO; ICRA research Source: CSO; ICRA research

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Chart 13: YoY Growth in Capital Goods Chart 14: YoY Growth in Intermediate Goods

Source: CSO; ICRA research Source: CSO; ICRA research

Chart 15: YoY Growth in Consumer Durables Chart 16: YoY Growth in Consumer Non-Durables

Source: CSO; ICRA research Source: CSO; ICRA research

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12%

16%

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ANNEXURE B

Source: CSO; ICRA research

Items Weight (%)

Growth in Feb 2017

Manufacturing Sub-Sector Use-Based Classification

Electric sheets 0.13 90.1% Basic Metals Basic Goods H R Coils/Skelp 1.30 29.1% Basic Metals Basic Goods Stainless/ alloy steel 0.64 24.2% Basic Metals Basic Goods Molasses 0.11 -39.0% Food Products & Beverages Basic Goods

Cable, Rubber Insulated 0.12 241.2% Electrical Machinery & Apparatus N.E.C. Capital Goods Cement Machinery 0.12 116.5% Machinery & Equipment N.E.C. Capital Goods Three-Wheelers (including passenger & goods carrier)

0.33 -24.5% Other Transport Equipment Capital Goods

Conductor, Aluminium 0.20 -29.3% Electrical Machinery & Apparatus N.E.C. Capital Goods Sugar Machinery 0.11 -47.8% Machinery & Equipment N.E.C. Capital Goods Ship Building & Repairs 0.10 -49.7% Other Transport Equipment Capital Goods Plastic Machinery Incl. Moulding Machinery

0.26 -52.2% Machinery & Equipment N.E.C. Capital Goods

Biaxially Oriented Polypropylene (BOPP) Film 0.25 25.5% Rubber & Plastics Products Intermediate Goods

Woollen Carpets 0.26 -66.4% Textiles Consumer Durables

Antibiotics & It's Preparations 2.38 25.6% Chemicals & Chemical Products Consumer Non-Durables Leather Garments 0.75 -22.0% Wearing Apparel; Dressing & Dyeing of Fur Consumer Non-Durables Cigarettes 0.87 -37.7% Tobacco Products Consumer Non-Durables Sugar (including sugar cubes) 1.52 -41.6% Food Products & Beverages Consumer Non-Durables

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ANNEXURE C

Source Index of Eight Core Industries, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Office of the Economic Advisor; ICRA research

Growth in Index of Core Industries

Index of Core Industries

Coal Crude Oil Natural Gas Refinery Products

Fertilizers Steel Cement Electricity

Weight 37.9% 4.4% 5.2% 1.7% 5.9% 1.2% 6.7% 2.4% 10.3%

Month Dec-15 2.9% 5.3% -4.1% -6.1% 2.1% 13.5% -3.1% 4.1% 8.8% Jan-16 5.7% 7.9% -4.7% -15.2% 8.9% 8.2% 0.0% 9.2% 11.6% Feb-16 9.4% 3.3% 0.7% 1.2% 10.9% 18.3% 6.1% 13.5% 15.8%

Dec-16 5.6% 4.4% -0.8% 0.0% 6.4% -4.7% 14.9% -8.7% 6.0% Jan-17 3.4% 4.8% 1.3% 11.8% -1.5% -1.6% 11.4% -13.3% 4.8% Feb-17 1.0% 7.1% -3.4% -1.7% -2.3% -5.3% 8.7% -15.8% 1.5% April-Feb 2016 3.5% 4.7% -1.0% -3.6% 3.7% 11.6% -0.8% 4.2% 7.5% April-Feb 2017 4.4% 2.8% -2.8% -1.9% 5.9% 2.1% 9.1% -0.7% 5.0%

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Business Contacts

Mr. L. Shivakumar E-mail: [email protected] Tel: +91 22 6114 3406 / +91 98210 86490

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Media and Public Relations

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Branches

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