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292

Abdul Aziz, King of Saudi Arabia (Ibn Saud), 226, 228, 242, 245

Abdullah, King of Saudi Arabia, 226; while prince, 140, 240–242, 246

Abu Musa island, 179Abu Nidal Organization (ANO), 110,

123, 140, 142Acción Democrática (AD), 193, 199accountability, see political

accountabilityAfghanistan, 65t, 174, 180; foreign

insurgencies in, 181; Iran and, 178–179, 188, 260; Saudi Arabia and, 238, 249; US/Saudi relationship and, 237

aggression, 4–5, 42, 190; causal mechanism testing and, 55; definition of, 42; empirical statistical results on, 70–83; Iran and, 3, 7, 112, 152, 165, 183–186, 188; Iraq and, 7, 75, 90, 93, 97, 108, 110, 116, 117–119; Libya and, 3, 76, 123, 136, 141–143, 149–150, 190, 260; oil income fluctuations and, 50; revisionism and, 60–61, 68, 77, 136; of revolutionary leaders, 27; risk-tolerance and, 19, 24–26; Russia and, 53; Saudi Arabia and, 226t, 244–245; state preferences for, 9, 16; Venezuela and, 3, 7, 83, 190, 192, 210, 221

aggressor-MIDs, 60–61, 72, 73agriculture: in Iran, 171; in Iraq, 103,

107; in Libya, 134Ahmedinejad, Mahmoud, 156, 173,

211ALBA (Latin American Bolivarian

Alternative), 210Albania, 65tAl Buryami territorial dispute (Saudi

Arabia), 229

Alfonso, Juan Pablo Perez, 193Algeria, 28, 65t, 67t, 231, 232, 235;

Qadhafi and, 141Algiers Accord (1980), 175Algiers Pact (1975), 109, 112, 160Alliance of Builders of Islamic Iran,

174Alo Presidente (Chávez’ television

program), 209–210, 213, 218Alvarenga, Ernesto, 202ambition, 23–24, 55, 117; of Chávez,

219; of Khomeini, 183; of Qadhafi, 147–149; of Saddam, 112, 117; of Saudi kings, 242; of Shah Pahlavi, 159

Amin, Idi, 138–139Ammash, Huda Salih Mahdi, 99, 118Andersen, J., 37Anglo-Persian Oil Company

(Anglo-Iranian Oil Company) (AIOC) (BP), 157, 158

Angola, 6, 28, 67t, 140, 238, 249Arab Charter (1980), 110Arab–Israeli war (1973), 110, 132,

228, 234, 248, 249, see also Six-Day War (1967)

Arab League, 97, 110, 176, 242; Iran–Iraq war and, 177; Israel and, 142

Arab nationalism, 138, 146, see also pan-Arabism

Arab Peace Initiative proposal (2002), 241, 242

Arab Socialist Union (ASU), 132Arab Spring, 15, 261, 264–266Araujo, Fernando, 218Argentina, 65t, 181, 212Arif, Abd al-Rahman, 98, 118Arif, Abd al-Salam, 95, 97–98, 118ar-Razzaq, Arif Abd, 118

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Index 293

Aslaksen, S., 37assassinations/assassination attempts,

99; executions, 102, 163t; on Nasser, 230; on Qasim, 117; on Saudi kings, 236, 242; of al-Tikriti, 99

Assembly of Experts (Iran), 162, 172ASU (Arab Socialist Union), 132attackers, states as, 7Aujali, Ali, 143, 150Austria, 39authoritarianism, 27autocracies, 37, 49, 85autonomy, see political autonomyAzerbaijan, 67t, 179

Baathist Party, 92, 95, 97–98; al-Bakr and, 90; coups by, 98–102; Khomeini and, 183; Kurds and, 109; Pahlavi and, 160; transformations in Iraq by, 96, 102–106

Badr, Muhammad al-, 230Baghdad Pact (1955), 95, 97, 159Bahonar, Mohammad-Javan, 167Bahrain, 64, 67t, 264, 265Bakhtiar, Shapour, 161Bakr, Hasan al-, 46, 90, 98, 117;

proclaimed president, 98; Saddam and, 99–102, 118

Banco del Sur, 211Bangladesh, 65tBani-Sadr, Abolhasan, 162, 164, 167,

184; election of, 163t; radicalization and, 166t

Banti, Tafari, 81bargaining, interstate, 18–19, 33Barrio Adento (Venezuelan medical

services), 206Barrios, Hugo Armando Carvajal, 219Barzani, Mustafa, 109Bashir, Omar al-, 81Batista, Fulgencio, 258Bazargan, Mehdi, 152, 162, 163t, 164,

166t, 184; Khomeini’s appointment of, 163, 184; resignation of, 165

Bazzaz, Abd al-Rahman al-, 98, 118Beck, Nathaniel, 69Beheshti, Mohammad Hasayn, 162,

167Belarus, 211, 214Ben Ali, Zine el Abidine, 264

Benin, 65tBennett, Andrew, 41, 42Betancourt, Romulo, 193, 195bicameral Congress (Venezuela), 200,

220Le Billon, Philippe, 5bin Laden, Osama, 6von Bismarck, Otto, 22Black Panther party, 123, 140Bolívar, Simón, 201, 220Bolivarian Circles, 201–203, 209Bolivarian Revolution (Venezuela), 14,

52, 76, 190, 199, see also VenezuelaBolivia, 46, 65t, 212Bonaparte, Napoleon, 250Bonnici, Karmenu Mifsud, 139borders, contiguous territorial, 64, 68,

73; Iran–Iraq, 97, 109, 111; of Iraq, 97, 110–111; Libya and, 76; for “typical state,” 75

BPCs (Basic People’s Congresses) (Libya), 133

BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 12, 70, 92, 126, 154, 192, 196, 227, 271

Brazil, 6, 65t, 109, 191t, 194Britain, 130, 258; arms sales to

Saudi Arabia by, 238; Baghdad Pact and, 95, 159; Iran and, 156, 157–158, 257; Libya and, 127, 136, see also United Kingdom

British Petroleum (BP), 157Brunei, 64, 67tBulgaria, 65tBurkina Faso, 65tBurundi, 65tBush, George H. W., 114, 116, 263Bush, George W., 23, 204, 240–241,

246Byman, Daniel, 9, 21, 118

Caldera, Rafael, 193, 196, 199, 218Cambodia, 45, 65t, 161, 257Cameroon, 67tCampins, Luis Herrera, 195Canada, 88CAP, see Perez, Carlos Andres

(CAP)el caracazo (1989 Venezuelan trans-

portation fare hike), 197






Index294

Cárdenas, Francisco Arias, 198, 208Caricom (Caribbean alliance), 211,

222Carmona, Pedro, 203Carter, Jimmy, 175, 237Carter Doctrine (1980), 228, 237case selection, rationale for, 42, 50–54Caspian Sea conflicts, 179Castro, Fidel, 23, 65t, 81, 202, 267causal mechanisms, testing of, 42, 54–

58, 84, 256–259; domestic politics and, 26; Iran and, 156, 183–187; Iraq and, 116; Libya and, 147–151; Saudi Arabia and, 242; Venezuela and, 219–223

Central Asian region, 69Central Command (Centcom) (US),

237Chacin, Ramon Rodriguez, 219Chad, 3, 31, 141, see also Chad/Libya

relationshipChad/Libya relationship, 123, 136,

137–138, 140, 260; aggression and, 76; military spending and, 143

Chávez, Hugo, 14, 76, 190–192, 197–223, 260, 262; alleged resignation of, 203; ambition of, 219; Bolivarian Circles and, 201–203; case study selection and, 52; Colombia/Venezuela relationship and, 191, 192, 216–219, 223; constitution and, 192, 199, 200–201; coup attempt by, 197, 198, 220; coup attempt on, 2002, 203–204; economic reforms by, 204; election of, 199; emergence of, 197–199; foreign meddling and, 259; foreign policy under, 210–219; oil exports and, 31; personalization of power under, 207; risk-tolerance of, 191, 220, see also Venezuela

Chechnya, 53, 54checkbook diplomacy, 38, 225, 228,

232, 249Cheney, Dick, 244Chevron, 213Childs, J. Rives, 245Chile, 65t, 194China, 65t, 88, 144, 266; Saudi Arabia

and, 238; Venezuela and, 214, 215

Chirac, Jacques, 178Christensen, Thomas, xiiChurchill, Winston, 157CIA (Central Intelligence Agency), 157civil war(s), 12, 40, 270; causality and,

250–253; in Chad, 137; corruption and, 5, 28; in Iran, 111, 155, 163t, 167, 168; in Iraq, 98; MIDs and, 77, 78t; Misión Miranda and, 206; in petrostates, 5, 6, 28, 269; in Yemen, 227, 230

Clash of Civilizations (Huntington), 178

clientelism, 28, 149, 151, 202Clinton, Bill, 240Cold War (1947–1991), 26, 54, 68, 73,

75; as variable, 254, 255tCollier, Paul, 253Colombia, 3, 14; FARC and, 14,

212, 216–219, 221; Republic of, 220, see also Colombia/Venezuela relationship

Colombian Army, 196Colombia/Venezuela relationship, 76,

83, 191t, 196, 212, 223; Chávez and, 191, 192, 216–219, 223; low-level conflicts in, 83, 194; realignment of geopolitical alliances in, 221, 222; worsening of, 211

Comisión de vecindad Colombo-Venzolana (Neighborhood Commission), 196

Communal Councils (Venezuelan local governance), 202

Communism, 237, 249Communist Party (Iraq), 100Comoros, 65tCongo, 65t, 67t, 83congruence testing, 51, 55Conoco Philips, 213constituency size, 29constitutions: of Iran, 163t, 185; of

Iraq, 102, 118; of Libya, 130; of Venezuela, 192, 199, 200

constraints, see political constraintsCOPEI (Partido Social Cristiano), 193,

195, 199Córdoba, Piedad, 217, 219corporate co-management (Venezuela),

204






Index 295

Correa, Rafael, 217Correlates of War (COW), 2, 7, 60–61,

69, 79corruption, 253, 268; civil war and, 5,

28; in Iran, 160, 161, 257; in Iraq, 107, 116, 258; in Libya, 258; in Venezuela, 199

Costa Rica, 65tcosts of fighting in oil wars, 17,

18–20, 261; Iran–Iraq war and, 112, 113, 177; rebel groups and, 252; to state and leaders, 29–37; war debt and, 113; win sets and, 18, see also military spending

Council of Ministers (Saudi Arabia), 243, 244

coup d’états, 23, 198; attempts of in Saudi Arabia, 242; against Chávez, 203–204; by Chávez, 197, 198, 220; by Hitler, 62; in Iraq, 98–102, 160; Libya and, 128–129, 140, 148; Pahlavi and, 157; Saddam and, 90, 117; in Venezuela, 193, 198, 203–204

Cuba, 65t, 194, 267; Bolivarian Circles and, 202; corruption in, 258; oil exportation prospects in, 6; Saudi Arabia and, 246; US and, 22, 39, 258; Venezuela and, 213

Cuban Committees for the Defense of the Revolution (CDRs), 202

Cyrenaica (Libyan province), 127

Dahl, Robert, 30D’Arcy, William Knox, 157, 158Daud, Ibrahim al-, 98Davis, Christina, xiidefender-MIDs, 61defenders, states as, 7–8, 20, 39, 60, 61defensive (non-revisionist) power, 60democracies, 10, 22, 68, 74,

164; authoritarianism and, 27; constraints on, 37; GDP and, 49

democratic peace theory, 68, 74Department of Defense, US, 263dependent variable, operationalizing,

42, 44deposing of leaders, 33, 34, 230;

Pahlavi and, 109; risk of for revolutionaries, 33; Saddam and,

93, 116, see also assassination attempts

Dickson, Everett, 16domestic armed conflicts, 28, 39domestic politics, 4, 17–20, 23, 247;

accountability and, 27–29; causal mechanisms of, 26; constraints of, 25, 54; in Iran, 156, 161–174, 188; in Iraq, 98–108, 114, 115–122; in Libya, 151, 247, 265; in petrostates, 262; in revolutionary states, 4; in Venezuela, 199

domestic procedural constraints, see political constraints

domestic violence, 5Duffield, John, 11, 261Dunning, Thad, 196dyadic analyses, 19, 60, 76–79

East Asian region, 69Eastern Europe, 26, 265economic incentives, see oil income as

economic incentive for aggression and conflict; oil income as economic incentive for stability

economic sanctions, 88; on Iran, 88, 183, 188; on Iraq, 76, 88, 116, 121, 212; on Libya, 88, 135, 146, 147; by US, 88, 135, 146, 188

economic transformation, 63; in Iran, 155, 159, 160, 161, 178, 257; in Iraq, 96, 103–104, 107, 112; in Libya after oil boom, 127; in Venezuela, 161, 204–207, 257

economic volatility, 257–258Ecuador, 67t, 217, 220Egypt, 65t, 184; Arab–Israeli war

and, 137, 234; Arab Spring and, 264, 265; ASU and, 132; Baghdad Pact and, 95; corruption and, 258; foreign insurgencies in, 181; Free Officers (Libya) and, 129; Iraq and, 95, 110, 263; Libya and, 123, 136, 137, 138, 260; military size of, 109; pan-Arabism and, 141; vs. petro-revolutionary state, 266; petrostate period in, 67t; Saudi Arabia and, 226t, 228, 239, 246, 248; Six-Day War and, 231, see also Nasser, Gamal Abdel






Index296

elections: in Iran, 163t, 167, 185; in Venezuela, 195, 199

ELN (Ejército de Liberación Nacional), 196, 217

El Salvador, 65t, 140embargoes, see oil embargoesemployment, public sector, 28,

170–171endogeneity, 50, 82energy consumption, 31; diversification

of, 31; independence and, 269energy policy (US), 15, 261, 268–271England, see Britain; United KingdomEquatorial Guinea, 67tEthiopia, 65t, 161, 238, 257Eurasian region, 69executions: in Iran, 163t; of RCC

members, 102, see also assassination attempts

exile: of Khomeini, 152, 161, 163t, 183; of leaders of Mujahedin, 168

Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, 270

Exxon/Exxon-Mobil, 131, 150, 194, 213

Fahd, King of Saudi Arabia, 34, 114, 226, 243, 245; while prince, 235, 236

Faisal, King of Saudi Arabia, 226, 229, 245, 246; assassination of, 236; checkbook diplomacy of, 233; corruption and, 258; Sadat and, 233–234; Six-Day War and, 231; US–Saudi relationship and, 232, 246; while prince, 230, see also Saudi Arabia

Faisal al-Hashemi, King of Iraq, 94Faisal II, King of Iraq, 94FARC (Fuerzas Armadas

Revolucionarias de Colombia), 14, 212, 216–219, 221

Farouk, King of Egypt, 258fatwas (formal religious statements),

243Fazzan (Libyan province), 127Fearon, James, 18, 69, 70Fedai Khalq (Iran), 164, 166tFedecamaras (Venezuelan business

council), 194, 203Federation of Arab Republics, 141

food subsidies in Iran, 170, 186Foreign Affairs (Ross), 265foreign aid: Libya and, 127, 140;

Venezuela and, 195, 213foreign insurgencies, 38; Iran and,

155, 179–182; Libya and, 53, 123, 136, 140–141; Saudi Arabia and, 225, 238, 249, see also rebel groups/parties

foreign policy, 1, 4, 16, 258–259, 263–264

foreign policy of Iran, 155–156, 159–160, 174–183, 188, 190; foreign insurgencies and, 155, 179–182; international military incidents and, 178–179; Khomeini and, 76, 155, 156; nuclear weapons and, 182–183; radicalization and, 165; since 1979, 156, 174–183; softening of, 178–179; US hostage crisis and, 31, 152, 163t, 165, 175, see also Iran–Iraq war (1980)

foreign policy of Iraq, 190; aggression and, 90; to 1968, 94–98, 258; 1968–1991, 115, see also Iran–Iraq war (1980); Iraq–Kuwait war (1990)

foreign policy of Libya: aggression in, 123, 190; BPCs and, 134; before 1969, 124, 126, 127–129; 1969–1991, 124, 129–145; 1991–2010, 124, 126, 145–147

foreign policy of Saudi Arabia, 225, 227–242; aggression and, 244; conservative character of, 230–231, 235; before 1967, 231; 1967–1973, 231–235; 1974–1999, 231–235; 2000–2010, 240–242

foreign policy of Venezuela, 223; aggression and, 192; under Chávez, 210–219; military spending and, 191, 195, 210, 214–216, 221; as moderately aggressive, 190; peace in, 1958–1989, 196

founding governments, 64France, 39, 45, 94, 176; Iran and, 182;

Libya and, 127, 137Free Officers: of Egypt, 229; of Iraq, 95,

119; of Libya, 129, 134, 136, 148Free Trade Area of the Americas

(FTAA), 211, 222






Index 297

Frías, Hugo Chávez, see Chávez, HugoFurqan group (Iran), 164, 166t

Gabon, 67tGaza, 181gender, institutionalized status of, 63General People’s Congress (GPC)

(Libya), 133, 145George, Alexander, 41, 42Georgia, 54Germany, 180, 182Ghana, 6, 65t, 84Gholz, Eugene, 11Glaser, Charles, 9Glaspie, April, 263Gleditsch, Nils Petter, 77Goemans, Hein, 9, 62Gomez, Juan Vicente, 192Grand Mosque of Mecca, 237, 243Gran Venezuela, La (the Great

Venezuela), 193Great Britain, see Britain; United

Kingdom“Great Civilization” (Iran), 158Greater Tunb island, 179Great Green Charter of Human Rights

in the Era of the Masses (Qadhafi), 135

Greece, 65t“greed” incentives in civil war/revolu-

tion, 251, 256–257Green Book, The (Qadhafi), 124,

133–134Grenada, 140gross domestic product (GDP): Fearon

and Laitin and, 69, 70; of Iran, 169; of Iraq, 106, 109; of Libya, 124, 134, 143; MIDs and, 49, 70; of petrostates, 2, 48–49, 64, 254; public expenditures proportion of, 85; of Saudi Arabia, 227; for “typical state,” 88; of Venezuela, 191, 194

Guardian Council (Iran), 161, 173Guatemala, 140Guinea, 6, 65tGuinea-Bissau, 6, 65t, 140Gulf Cooperation Council, 237, 239Gulf war (1991), 241, 249, 263–264Guyana, 6, 191, 191t, 194, 216

Habré, Hissène, 137Hajj, Aziz al-, 100Halim, Mustafa Ben, 128Halliday, Fred, 46Hamas, 155, 180, 181, 188, 242Hamdani, Ra’ad Majid Rashid al-,

105, 117Hammadi, Sadun, 116Hammer, Armand, 131Hashemi, Faisal al-, 94Hawadi, Bashir, 133Hezbollah, 155, 180–181, 188Hitler, Adolf, 62Hizbe Wahdat group, 179Hoeffler, Anke, 252–253Holy Mosque of Mecca, 237, 243holy war, see jihadismHomer-Dixon, Thomas, 2Horowitz, Michael, 9Human Rights Watch, 201Hungary, 65tHuntington, Samuel, 21, 69, 178Hussein, Saddam, 7, 14, 90–94, 98–

122; aggression and, 108, 110, 116; ambition of, 117; al-Bakr and, 102, 118; Chváez and, 212; fall of, 42; “greed” incentive and, 256; Iranian revolution and, 160, 168–169, 185; Islam and, 101, 111, 175; Khomeini and, 111, 161, 175, 177; motivations of, 3, 256; opposition to, 30, 105, 175, 177, 181; peace offerings by, 76, 155, 169, 176; prison sentence of, 98–108, 117; revolutionary government of, 46, 75, 122, 260, 262; risk-tolerance and, 7, 14, 86, 113, 117, 122; Saudi Arabia and, 239; in summer of 1990, 263; US foreign policy and, 263–264; wealth of, 256, see also Iran–Iraq war (1980); Iraq; Iraq–Kuwait war (1990)

Hydrocarbons Law (Venezuela, 2001), 205, 213

Ibn Saud, King of Saudi Arabia (Abdul Aziz), 226, 228, 242, 245

ICP, see Iraqi Communist Party (ICP)Idris, King of Libya, 14, 123, 124;

abdication of, 128; corruption and,






Index298

258; “greed” incentive and, 256; peace and, 136; political constraints on, 148

IEA (International Energy Agency), 271

Imam of the Muslim Umma, 185IMF (International Monetary Fund),

85, 194, 196, 211impeachment (Saudi Arabia), 243imperialism, 165incentives, see oil income as economic

incentive for aggression and conflict; oil income as economic incentive for stability

incumbent leaders, 29, 40, 251–252India, 144, 180Indonesia, 2, 6, 28, 67, 161, 257influencers, 55–56Institute for International Strategic

Studies (IISS), 215insurgencies: in Iraq, 181, 188; in

Saudi Arabia, 242, see also foreign insurgencies

intelligence services, 157, 158Inter-American Development Bank,

194International Atomic Energy Agency,

182International Crisis Behavior data, 60,

87International Energy Forum (IEF),

242International Financial Statistics

(IMF), 85International Monetary Fund (IMF),

85, 194, 196, 211International Organization (journal),

59intifada: attempt in Saudi Arabia,

236; second, in Palestine, 240–241, 246

IPC, see Iraq Petroleum Company (IPC)

Iran, 14, 65t, 89, 152–185, 258, 260; Afghanistan and, 178–179, 188, 260; aggression and, 3, 7, 112, 152, 165, 183–186, 188; case study selection and, 51; causal mechanism testing in, 156, 183–187; civil

wars in, 111, 155, 163t, 167, 168; constitution of, 163t, 185; economic sanctions on, 88, 183, 188; economic transformations in, 155, 159, 160, 161, 178, 257; elections in, 163t, 167, 185; foreign insurgencies and, 155, 179–182; Gulf Cooperation Council and, 237; hostage crisis and, 31, 152, 163t, 165, 175; Iran-contra affair and, 238; Islam in, 111, 152, 155, 161–178; Israel and, 179, 180, 188, 260; military size of, 109; military spending in, 158, 170, 186, 187; name change of, 63, 155; natural gas and, 83; 1953 coup in, 253; nuclear weapons and, 76, 155, 182–183, 188, 211, 241; oil income as economic incentive for aggression and conflict in, 155, 186–187, 188; oil income as economic incentive for stability in, 187; oil production in, 154, 157–158, 171–172, 186, 188; OPEC and, 169, 193; pan-Islamism and, 233; petro-revolutionary period in, 67t, 158; politics in, before 1979, 156–161; politics in, since 1979 (domestic), 156, 161–174, 188; politics in, since 1979 (foreign), 156, 174–183; profit-sharing with oil companies in, 132, 158; projected oil supplies from, 271; revolutionary government of, 262; robustness checks and, 82; Saudi Arabia and, 174, 176, 179, 180, 228, 229, 239, 241; Shatt al-Arab and, 159; Tudeh Party in, 163t, 164, 166t, 168, 176, 186; UK and, 182, 253; US and, 158, 159, 174, 179, 181, 182, 188, 253, 257; Venezuela and, 52, 211, 214; women’s rights in, 63, 155, 173, see also foreign policy of Iran; Iranian Revolution (1979); Iran/Iraq relationship; Iran–Iraq war (1980); Khomeini, Ruhollah; oil income in Iran

Iran Air, 211Iranian Revolution (1979), 24, 142,

166t; categories of change during, 63; economic volatility and, 257; oil exports and, 186; patronage

Idris, King of Libya (cont.)






Index 299

and repression after, 159; political accountability and, 185–186; Saddam and, 160, 168–169, 185; timeline of, 163t, see also Iran

Iran/Iraq relationship, 75–76, 94, 260; in 1990s, 178; before war, 108, 110, 169, see also Iran; Iran–Iraq war (1980); Iraq

Iran–Iraq war (1980), 3, 14, 39, 108, 152, 175–178; costs of fighting in, 112, 113, 177; end of, 176, 178; Iraq as instigator of, 155, 163t; Khomeini and, 31, 76; oil income as incentive for stability and, 187; oil income/revolutionary government interaction and, 34, 120; oil production and, 121; peace negotiations in, 131, 155, 163t, 176; Resolution 116; and, 176; robustness checks and, 82; Saddam remaining in office after, 30; Shatt al-Arab confrontations and, 97, 109, 111, 112, 159, 175; Tudeh Party and, 168; US and, 112, 121, 174, 177; US/Saudi relationship and, 237; victims of, 171, 186

Iraq, 3, 14, 65t, 70, 90, 229; aggression and, 7, 75, 90, 93, 117–119; Baghdad Pact and, 159; border territory of, 97, 110–111; case study selection and, 51; causal mechanism testing and, 116; constitution of (1925), 118; constitution of (1970), 102; corruption in, 107, 116, 258; declassified files in, 42; economic sanctions on, 76, 88, 116, 121, 212; economic transformations in, 96, 103–104, 107, 112; foreign meddling and, 258; ICP and, 95, 100, 119; insurgencies in, 188; Islam in, 160; Israel and, 93, 110; Jordan and, 110; Khomeini in, 160; military of, 105, 106, 109–110, 120, 261; name change of, 96; nationalism in, 95; oil income as economic incentive for aggression and conflict in, 119–120; oil income as economic incentive for stability in, 120–122; oil production in, 103, 121; OPEC and, 93, 96, 193; Pahlavi monarchy

and, 174; petro-aggression in, 262; petro-revolutionary period in, 67t, 90; politics of, to 1968, 94–98, 258; politics of, 1968–1991 (domestic), 98–108; politics of, 1968–1991 (foreign), 115; politics of, 1991–2003, 115–122; projected oil supplies from, 271; Qasim and, 95–97, 117, 118; Qods force and, 180; relative to other Middle East states, 89; revolutionary government of, 90, 262; robustness checks and, 82; Saudi Arabia and, 93, 121, 228; security services in, 102, 107, 120; Shatt al-Arab and, 159; Six-Day War and, 232; in summer of 1990, 261, 263–264; Syria and, 93, 95, 110; UK and, 93, 94; US and, 93, 94, 115, 116, 174, 176, 177; US/Saudi relationship and, 239; US war with (2003), 241; Venezuela and, 52, 211, 212; women’s rights in, 104, see also Hussein, Saddam; Iran/Iraq relationship; Iran–Iraq war (1980); Iraq–Kuwait war (1990)

Iraqi Communist Party (ICP), 95, 100, 119

Iraqi Constitution: of 1970, 102; of 1925, 118

Iraq–Iran border, 97, 109, 111Iraq–Iran war, see Iran–Iraq war

(1980)Iraqi Republican Guard, 115, 239Iraq–Kuwait war (1990), 3, 7, 14, 108,

112–115; oil income/revolutionary government interaction and, 34–35; resource competition and, 39; Saddam remaining in office after, 30; Saudi Arabia and, 34, 112, 114, 115; summer preceding, 263–264; US and, 34, 114, 263–264; UN sanctions and, 114, 121; US/Saudi relationship and, 239

Iraq Petroleum Company (IPC), 94, 96, 103, 117

Irish Republican Army (IRA), 123, 140IRP, see Islamic Republican Party (IRP)Islam, 69, 155, 174; in Iran, 111, 152,

155, 161–178; Iranian radical clergy and, 162–169, 184; in Iraq, 160; IRC and, 162, 173; IRG and, 162,






Index300

165, 174, 180; IRP and, 163t, 164, 166t, 167, 186; Israel and, 180; Khomeini and, 111, 154, 160–161, 162, 171, 175, 183–186; oil revenue and, 170, 233; pan-Islamism and, 233; Qadhafi and, 132, 137; radical, 5, 162–169, 241; Saddam and, 101, 111, 175; Saudi Arabia and, 233, 237, 240, 243, 247; shariah law and, 243; terrorism and, 5, 240; in “typical state,” 75; ulema and, 105, 106, 132, 164, 242, 244, 245, 246, see also Muslims

Islamic Republic, 25, 152, 154Islamic Republican Party (IRP),

163t, 164, 166t, 167, 186; of Iran, 63; patronage and repression by, 168

Islamic Revolution: Iran and, 111; Israel and, 180

Islamic Revolutionary Council (IRC), 162, 164, 173

Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRG), 162, 165, 174, 180; Qods force of, 181

Israel, 140, 174; Abdullah and, 240; Arab–Israeli war and, 110, 132, 228, 234, 248, 249; Egypt and, 138; Iran and, 179, 180, 188, 260; Iraq and, 93, 110; Libya and, 142, 143, 235, 260; occupations by, 114; oil exportation prospects in, 6; Pahlavi monarchy and, 174; Saudi Arabia and, 226t, 227, 246; Six-Day War and, 110, 230, 231–232, 233; US and, 142, 231; US/Saudi relationship and, 231, 240, see also Palestine

Israeli Embassy bombing (Argentina), 181

Israel/Palestinian relationship, 242Istiqlal Party (Iraq), 95Italy, 127, 130Izarra, William, 198

Jalloud, Abdel, 131, 142Jamahiriyya government (Libya):

abroad, 1969–1991, 136–145; Green Book and, 133; at home 1969–1991, 129–136; 1991–2010,

145–147; as replacement for Libyan monarchy, 124, see also Libya

Jaua, Elias, 218Jazrawi, Taha Ramadhan al-, 106Jeddah Agreement (1965), 230Jewish community center bombing

(Argentina), 181Jews, 228jihadism, 6, 171, see also Islam;

Muslims; radical IslamJimenez, Marcos Perez, 193John Paul II (pope), 178Johnson, Lyndon, 131, 232Jordan, 94, 180, 229; Arab Spring

and, 264; Iraq and, 110; Khartoum meeting and, 232; Palestinian training camps in, 233; Saudi Arabia and, 231, 239; Six-Day War and, 231

Karl, Terry Lynn, 196Katz, Jonathan, 69Kazakhstan, 6, 67tKazzar, Nadhim, 100, 118Keohane, Robert, xii, 32Kerekou, Mathieu, 81Khalid, King of Saudi Arabia, 226, 236Khaliq al-Samarrai, Abd al-, 99, 100Khamenei, Ali, 162, 165, 166t,

180, 184; election of, 163t, 167; Khomeini and, 172–173; selection of as Supreme Leader, 172–173

Khan, A. Q., 147, 182Kharq Island oil terminal (Iran), 171,

187Khartoum meeting (1967), 232Khatami, Mohammad, 156, 173–174,

178, 182Khmer Rouge, 45Khobar Towers bombing (1996), 240Khoeiniha, Mohammad, 175Khoi, Ayatollah Abu al-Qasim al-, 115Khomeini, Ruhollah, 31, 34, 236, 262;

aggressive foreign policy of, 76, 155, 156; ambition of, 183; Baathist party and, 183; death of, 156, 172–173, 178, 262; exile and return of, 152, 161, 163t, 183; “greed” incentive and, 256; Hezbollah and, 180; Iranian hostage crisis and,

Islam (cont.)






Index 301

175; Iran–Iraq war and, 31, 76; Islam and, 111, 154, 160–161, 162, 171, 175, 183–186; jihad and, 171; Khamenei and, 172–173; Montazeri and, 172; oil income as incentive for aggression and, 186; oil income as incentive for stability, 186; Pahlavi and, 154, 160–161; peace negotiations and, 155, 178; radical clergy and, 162; risk-tolerance of, 24, 183; Saddam and, 111, 161, 175, 177; titles of, 185; as “unambiguous” revolutionary leader, 81, see also Iran

Khrushchev, Nikita, 46Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, see Saudi

ArabiaKirchner, Christina, 212Kissinger, Henry, 59, 236Klare, Michael, 2, 17, 260Kurdish people, 92, 100, 116;

Baathists and, 109; Bazargan and, 166t; Iran and, 178, 181; Qods force and, 180; revolts by, 113, 115; transplanting of, 105, 106

Kuwait, 75, 93, 97, 239; Arab Spring and, 265; Iran–Iraq war and, 112, 121; Khartoum meeting and, 232; oil embargo of 1967 and, 232; OPEC and, 193; al-Tikriti’s assassination in, 99, see also Hussein, Saddam; Iraq–Kuwait war (1990)

Laitin, David D., 69, 70land reform, 96, 103; in Libya, 134; in

Venezuela, 203Latin American region, 69, 194Latinbarometro (survey group), 199Law 80 (Iraq), 96leaders, 57t, 62–63, 184; costs of

conflict to, 29–37; deposing, 33, 34, 93, 109, 116, 230; foreign powers’ installation of, 63; incumbent, 29, 40, 251–252; of non-petrostates, 30, 80t; of non-revolutionary governments, 23, 24, 160; political autonomy of, 85; tenure of, 85, see also ambition; petrostate leaders; political accountability; political

autonomy; political constraints; revolutionary leaders; risk-tolerance; under individual leader

Lebanon, 95, 110, 114, 155, 180, 233Lenin, Vladimir, 46Lesser Tunb island, 179Liberation Movement (Iran), 164,

166t, 177Liberia, 6, 65tLibya, 6, 14, 65t, 67t, 143; aggression

and, 3, 123, 147–150, 190, 260; Arab Spring and, 264; Bolivarian Circles and, 202; border wars and, 76; case study selection and, 51; causal mechanism testing in, 147–151; Chávez and, 211; constitution of, 130; corruption in, 258; coups in, 128–129, 140, 148; diplomacy and aggression and, 136, 141–143; domestic politics in, 151, 247, 265; economic sanctions on, 88, 135, 146, 147; economic transformations in, 127; foreign aid and, 127, 140; foreign insurgencies and, 53, 123, 136, 140–141; Free Officers of, 129, 134, 136, 148; Iranian Revolution and, 185; Israel and, 142, 143, 235, 260; Khartoum meeting and, 232; liberalization in, 135–136, 146; MIDs and, 89, 136, 137–139, 146, 151; military spending in, 136, 143–145; name change of, 124, 134; nuclear weapons and, 123, 126, 136, 143–145, 147; nuclear weapons and, dismantling of, 147; oil income as economic incentive for aggression and conflict in, 149–150, 190; oil income as economic incentive for stability in, 150–151; oil income in, 124, 126, 151; oil production in, 124, 127–128, 134, 145–146, 150; pan-Arabism and, 123, 129, 136, 141–143; per-capita income in, 127, 135; politics in, before 1969, 124, 126, 127–129; politics in, 1969–1991, 124, 129–145; politics in, 1991–2010, 124, 126, 145–147; popular rule in, 132; provincial vs. federal power in, 128, 148; revolutionary government in,






Index302

51, 147–149, 262; revolutionary leaders in, 254; Saudi Arabia and, 14, 51, 53, 127, 228, 246, 247, 249; Soviet Union and, 123, 136, 142, 144, 146; terrorism and, 76, 123, 136, 140–141, 142, 147; Venezuela and, 52; women’s rights in, 124, see also Chad/Libya relationship; Qadhafi, Muammar; US/Libya relationship

Libyan Arab Republic, 129, see also Libya

Libyan National Oil Company, 132Libyan Petroleum Law (1955), 127Little Red Book (Mao), 133Lockerbie airline bombing, 123, 136,

140–141, 147longitudinal analysis, 51Lusinichi, Jaime, 196

McConnell, Michael, 216Mack, Connie, 212Madagascar, 65tMahdi Army (Iraq), 155Majid, Ali Hassan al-, 114majlis (parliament) (Iran), 156, 162,

184, 185; IRP control of, 167; Rafsanjani and, 173

Malaysia, 67tMali, 6, 65tMalta, 139Mao Tse-tung, 65, 81, 133Maoz, Zeev, 10, 62Marulanda, Manuel, 218Marxism, 134Marxist-Leninism, 25, 164, 167Mauritania, 65tmedia, 209–210; Telesur and, 212Mercal (Venezuelan food services), 206Mercosur (South American trade bloc),

210de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, 10Mexico, 67tMI6 (Military Intelligence, Section 6),

157Middle East region, 69, 82, 89, 190,

254; US presence in, 261, 270, see also Iran; Iraq; Kuwait; Saudi Arabia

militarized interstate disputes (MIDs), 59–89; aggressor-MIDs and, 60–61, 72, 73; civil wars and, 77, 78t; Correlates of War project and, 7; defender-MIDs and, 61; definition of, 60–61; empirical statistical results on, 10, 70–83; GDP and, 49, 70; Libya and, 89, 136, 137–139, 146, 151; non-petrostates’ propensity for, 261; non-revolutionary governments’ propensity for, 59; petrostates’ propensity for, 2, 10, 13, 43, 261, 271; propensity to instigate, other variables in, 68; revisionist, 68; revolutionary governments, empirical data on, 72; revolutionary governments’ propensity for, 59–84; revolutionary leaders and, 47–48; Russia and, 53; Saudi Arabia and, 225, 228, 249; state as attacker in, 7; state as defender in, 7–8, 77; Venezuela and, 216, 223

military, Iraqi, 105, 106, 120, 261; conscription in, 105; size of, 109–110

military, US, 261, 270military, Venezuelan, 204, 206;

exercises and disputes in, 210, 216; officers of in political power, 207

military mobilization, 43, 261military occupations, 114military operations, 57tmilitary spending, 38, 50, 56, 81,

237; incumbent governments and, 251–252; in Iran, 158, 170, 186, 187; in Iraq, 106, 120; in Libya, 136, 143–145; in Saudi Arabia, 236, 238, 245; in Venezuela, 191, 195, 210, 214–216, 221, see also costs of fighting in oil wars

mineral revenue, 83–84Ministry of Oil (Libya), 130Miquilena, Luis, 198misiónes bolívaranas (Venezuela), 204,

205–207Misión Florentino (Venezuela), 206Misión Miranda (Venezuelan militia),

202, 206

Libya (cont.)






Index 303

Misión Vuelvan Caras (Venezuelan social welfare program), 206

Mohammad, 94monadic factors, 17, 19, 60monarchies: Pahlavi, 169, 174;

petrostates as, 247; Saudi Arabia and, 225, 226t

Montazeri, Hossein, 172, 184Morocco, 142, 246Morrison, Kevin, 84Mossadeq, Muhammad, 157, 164Mostazafan Foundation (Iran), 169,

170Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS),

198Movimiento Bolívariano

Revolucionario, see Bolivarian Revolution (Venezuela)

Movimiento V Republica (MVR) (PSUV), 202

Mozambique, 140Mubarak, Hosni, 263, 264Muhayshi, Umar al-, 133mujahedin (Afghanistan), 238Mujahedin-e Khalq (Iran), 163t, 164,

166, 166t; deaths by, 168; defeat of, 179; exile and deaths of leaders of, 168; IRP and, 167; presidential elections and, 168

Muslim People’s Republican Party (MPRP) (Iran), 164, 166t

Muslims, 181; population of in petrostates, 51, 69, 71t, 73, 80t, 254, 255t; Saddam and, 175; in Saudi Arabia, 237, 247, see also Islam; Shi’a Muslims in Iraq

Myanmar, 46, 65t

Naguib, Muhammad, 184Namibia, 140Nasser, Gamal Abdel, 95, 110,

111, 266; assassination attempts against, 230; death of, 110, 141; Free Officers (Libya) and, 129; “greed” incentive and, 256; Naguib and, 184; Occidental Petroleum negotiations and, 131; pan-Islamism and, 233; Qadhafi and, 136; Saudi Arabia and, 229–230; Six-Day War and, 231, see also Egypt

National Action Charter (1973) (Iraq), 103

National Constituent Assembly (Venezuela), 200, 203

National Democratic Party (Iraq), 95, 119

National Front (Iran), 164, 166t, 167National Guard (Saudi Arabia), 243National Iranian Oil Company

(NIOC), 157National Liberation Front of Chad

(FROLINAT), 137NATO (North Atlantic Treaty

Organization), 160, 178natural gas, 83natural resources, 12, 13, 83–84, 267,

269; energy diversification and, 31Nayif, Abdul Razak al-, 98Netherlands, the, 213Ne Win, 81New York Stock Exchange, 205New York Times (newspaper), 158Ngouabi, Marien, 81Nicaragua, 65t, 140, 194, 238; Chávez

and, 212; revolution in, 161, 257; Venezuela and, 211

Niger, 144Nigeria, 2, 28, 49, 67no-fly zone (Iraq), 116Nolan, Peter, 70non-petrostates, 10, 13, 88; as

attacker vs. defender, 39; leaders of, 30, 80t; MID instigation and, 261; with non-revolutionary governments, 37, 59; with revolutionary governments, 40, 59, see also petrostates

non-revolutionary governments, 5, 16, 45; case study selection and, 51; leaders of, 23, 24, 160; MID instigation propensity by, 59; in non-petrostates, 37, 59; in petrostates, 37, 59, see also revolutionary governments; Saudi Arabia

North African region, 69, 190, 270, see also Libya

North American region, 69North Korea, 178Norway, 67t, 88






Index304

Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (1975), 144, 182

nuclear weapons, 43, 155; Iran and, 76, 155, 182–183, 188, 211, 241; Libya and, 123, 126, 136, 143–145, 147; Libyan dismantling of, 147; Pahlavi and, 182

Nuri, al-Maliki, 95Nye, Joseph, 32

Obote, Milton, 138Occidental Petroleum (Libya),

131–132oil embargoes, 233–235; of 1967,

232; Saudi Arabia and, 227, 230, 234, 248; Venezuela and, 31, 213

oil embargo of 1973, 10, 233–235, 244, 246, 271; Iraq and, 100, 103; Libya and, 132; Saudi Arabia and, 230, 248

oil exports, 48–49; Chávez and, 31; Iranian Revolution and, 186; of Libya, 127, 150; prospects of, 6; of Saudi Arabia, 225; of Venezuela, 49, see also gross domestic product (GDP)

oil income, 4, 27, 40, 48–49, 90–94, 136; accountability and, 16; case study selection and, 51, 52; causal mechanism testing and, 56; clientelism and, 28; domestic politics and, 4, 17; fluctuations in, 50, 92; global, 12; Islam and, 170; Libyan, 124, 126, 151; patronage funding in Iraq and, 106–107, 113, 119; as risk-lowering, 30–31, 32–37; Saddam and, 101, see also oil income/revolutionary government interaction; oil production and consumption

oil income as economic incentive for aggression and conflict, 29–37, 55; in Iran, 155, 186–187, 188; in Iraq, 119–120; in Libya, 149–150, 190; in Saudi Arabia, 244–245; in Venezuela, 221

oil income as economic incentive for stability, 30, 31–32, 55, 56, 187, 222–223, 249; in Iran, 187; in Iraq, 120–122; in Libya, 150–151;

in Saudi Arabia, 235, 245–247; in Venezuela, 222–223

oil income in Iran, 154, 161, 169–172; military spending and, 158, 170, 186, 187, 212

oil income in Libya, 124, 126, 151oil income in Saudi Arabia, 235,

244–247; oil embargo of 1973 and, 227

oil income in Venezuela, 191, 223; CAP and, 193; military spending and, 195, 214

oil income/revolutionary government interaction, 32–37, 40, 250–259; quantitative and qualitative evidence on, 250, 254–259; theoretical question of, 250–253, 259, see also oil income

oil industry nationalization: in Iraq, 103; in Venezuela, 193, 195, 205, 210, 213

oil production and consumption, 5–9, 12–13; in Iran, 154, 157–158, 171–172, 186, 188; in Iraq, 103, 121; in Libya, 124, 127–128, 134, 145–146, 150; in Saudi Arabia, 225, 226–227; in Venezuela, 161, 191, 192, 221

oil revenue, see oil incomeOman, 67t, 179, 229O’Neal, John, 32OPEC, see Organization of

Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

OPEC Fund for International Development, 194

Operation Desert Shield, 114, 239Operation Desert Storm, 113, 239Operation Eagle Claw, 175Organization of Petroleum Exporting

Countries (OPEC), 194, 235; Iran and, 169, 193; Iraq and, 93, 96, 193; Kuwait and, 193; Saddam’s influence in, 113; Saudi Arabia and, 193; Venezuela and, 193, 210

Organization of the Islamic Conference, 233

Ortega, Daniel, 81Otaiza, Eliecer, 207Ottoman Empire, 36






Index 305

Oueddei, Goukouni, 137Oxford English Dictionary, 42

Pacific region, 69Pahlavi, Mohammad Reza (Shah

of Iran), 14, 108, 156, 158–161; Algiers Pact and, 109; coup against, 158; covert plans to reinstate, 165; death of, 163t, 175; departure of, 161, 163t, 236, 257; fall of, 152, 160; interstate conflicts and, 174; Israel and, 180; military spending of, 187; Mossadeq and, 157; nuclear weapons and, 182; oil production and, 154; power of, 184; uprising against, 154

Pahlavi Foundation, 169Pahlavi monarchy, 169, 174Pakistan, 65t, 95; Baghdad Pact

and, 159; Libya and, 144; nuclear weapons and, 182; pan-Islamism and, 233; Qods force and, 180

Palestine, 114; Abdullah and, 246; Ibn Saud and, 245; Iran and, 155, 181; Iraq and, 110; Libya and, 142; PLO and, 140, 233; Qods force and, 180; Roosevelt and, 228; Saudi Arabia and Libya comparison and, 248; second intifada and, 240–241, 246, see also Israel

Palestinian Islamic Jihad, 142Palestinian Liberation Organization

(PLO), 140, 233Panama, 65t, 194, 220Panama Canal, 194pan-Arabism, 25, 94, 138, 146, 233;

Free Officers (Libya) and, 129; Iraq and, 104; Libya and, 123, 129, 136, 141–143; Qadhafi and, 141, 146, 148

pan-Islamism, 233para-statal organizations (Venezuela),

201–203Partido Social Cristiano (COPEI), 193,

195, 199patronage, 85, 119; in Iran, 156, 158,

169; in Iraq, 106–107, 113, 119; Mostazafan Foundation and, 169

Paykar group (Iran), 164, 166tPaz Estenssoro, Victor, 46peace/peace negotiations, 19, 136, 150,

225; Iran–Iraq war and, 131, 155,

163t, 176; Khomeini and, 155, 178; Saddam and, 76, 155, 169, 176; in Saudi Arabia, 2, 161

per-capita income, 73; in Libya, 127, 135; in Saudi Arabia, 127

Perez, Carlos Andres (CAP), 193–195, 197, 220, 222; failure of to be reelected, 195; second term of, 196, see also Venezuela

personalist dictatorships, 26Peru, 65t, 197Petkoff, Teodoro, 198Petraeus, David, 181petro-aggression, 3, 59, 260–261; vs.

petro-competition, 1PetroAmérica, 210Petroandino, 210Petrocaribe, 210, 211, 213petro-competition, 1, 2–3, 6, 7Petróleos de Venezuela (PdVSA), 194,

205–206, 212, 213, 221petro-non-revolutionary governments,

37, 59petro-revolutionary governments, 36,

59, 88–89, 190; as aggressors vs. defenders, 60; empirical statistical results on, 64, 70–83; international disputes by, 71t, 78t, 80t, see also petrostates; revolutionary governments

petrostate leaders, 80t; accountability of, 4; autonomy of, vs. non-petrostate leaders, 30; economic incentives for, 256–257; qualities of, 16; rationality of, 18; risk-tolerance of, 4, 86; tenure of, 85, see also ambition; leaders; revolutionary leaders; risk-tolerance

petrostates, 2, 35–37, 40, 67t, 190, 226–227; alternative definition of, 48–49, 82; as attacker vs. defender, 7, 39; civil wars in, 5, 6, 28, 269; definition of, 2, 27, 48–50, 64; domestic politics in, 262; empirical statistical results on, 70–83; foreign insurgency support in, 181; GDP as identifier for, 2, 48–49, 64, 254; identifying, 42, 48–50; international disputes by, 71t, 78t; Iran before becoming, 158; Iran






Index306

after becoming, 158; MIDs and, 2, 10, 13, 43, 261, 271; military spending in, 38; as monarchies, 247; Muslim population in, 51, 69, 71t, 73, 80t, 254, 255t; vs. non-petrostates, 10, 13; public expenditures in, 85–86; violence of, 2, see also Iran; Iraq; Libya; non-petrostates; petrostate leaders; revolutionary governments; Saudi Arabia; Venezuela

Petrosur, 210PLO (Palestinian Liberation

Organization), 140, 233Poland, 65tpolicy implications, 261, 263–264,

268–271political accountability, 16, 27, 29,

37, 38; Iranian Revolution and, 185–186; in Iraq, 114, 119; of petrostate leaders, 4

political autonomy, 27, 29, 37, 84–88; Chávez and, 221; constraints and accountability and, 37–38; of King Fahd, 236; of petrostate vs. non-petrostate leaders, 30; Qadhafi and, 149–150; Saudi Arabia and, 244–245

political clientelism, 28political constraints, 25, 37, 55–56,

57t; accountability and autonomy and, 37–38; Chávez and, 220; majlis and, 184; Qadhafi and, 148, 149; Saddam and, 118; on Saudi leaders, 243; on Supreme Leader, 184; in Venezuela, 200

Polity scores, 68, 69, 70, 71t, 80t, 254, 255t; MIDs and, 74; for “typical state,” 74, 75

Pollack, Kenneth M., 21, 118Pol Pot, 81Popper, Karl, 41Popular Army (Iraq), 106, 120Popular Congresses (Libya),

132Popular Front for the Liberation of

Palestine, 110, 142popular rule (Libya), 132population size, 68, 73; for “typical

state,” 75

power: domestic, 108, 120; personalization of, under Chávez, 207; of Shah, 184; in Venezuela, 191, 192, 200, 204

presidential power: in Iran, 172; in Venezuela, 192

presidential term limits: in Venezuela, 200

Press, Daryl, 11private property expropriation

(Venezuela), 204process-tracing, 53profit-sharing, oil industry, 130; in

Iran, 132, 158property ownership, structure

of, 63Provisional Revolutionary Government

(Iran), 163, 164, 165provocation, 42proxy wars, 225public expenditures, 85; as proportion

of GDP, 85public sector employment, 28Publish What You Pay, 270Punto Fijo Pact (1958), 193, 195Punto Fijo system (Venezuela), 219Putin, Vladimir, 54, 178

Qadhafi, Muammar, 14, 81, 123–124, 129–151, 262; aggression and, 76; Arab Spring and, 264; Chávez and, 202; coup by Free Officers and, 128–129; “greed” incentive and, 256–257; Green Book, 124, 133–134; Iranian revolution and, 185; Islam and, 132, 137; opposition to, 31; pan-Arabism and, 141, 146, 148; patronage and repression and, 169; popular rule and, 132; remaining in power, 86; revolutionary directional change by, 145–147, 247; revolution duration of, 45; risk-tolerance and, 129, 148; Saudi Arabia/Libya comparison and, 228, 248

Qadisiyyat Saddam (Iran–Iraq war), 111, see also Iran–Iraq war (1980)

Al Qaeda, 6Qasim, Abd al-Karim, 95–97, 118;

assassination attempt on, 117, see also Iraq

Qatar, 67t, 83, 265

petrostates (cont.)






Index 307

Qods force (IRG), 180–181qualitative studies, case selection for,

42, 50–54

radical clergy, 162–169, 184radical Islam, 5, 162–169, 241Rafsanjani, Akbar, 162, 168, 173, 178,

180; radicalism of, 184; warrant for arrest of, 181

Rajai, Mohammad-Ali, 161, 163t, 166t; death of, 167

Ramirez, Rafael, 205Rangel, Henry de Jesus, 219Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force

(US), 237rationalist models of war, 17RCC, see Revolutionary Command

Council (RCC) (Iraq)Reagan, Ronald, 140, 142, 163t, 175,

237; arms sales to Saudi Arabia and, 238

rebel groups/parties, 5, 28, 29, 43; costs to, 252–253; incumbent parties and, 40, 251–252; in Iran, 179; in Iraq, 188; in Libya, 123, 136, 140; in Saudi Arabia, 242, see also foreign insurgencies

Red Revolution (Iran), 159regime changes, 21, 23, 40,

see also coup d’étatsregional dynamics, 262regularized political processes, 23, 33religion, 69, 228; relationship between

state and, 63, see also Islam; Muslims

renewable resources, 269, see also natural resources

rentier politics, 27, 107, 149repression, 159, 169, 173,

see also patronageRepublica Bolívarana de Venezuela

(Bolivarian Republic of Veneuzela), 201

República de Venezuela, see VenezuelaRepublic of Colombia, see Colombiaresearch questions, 2, 261, 266Resolution 514 (1983), 176resource consumption, 262resource curse, 1–2, 12, 27–32, 261;

management of, 270; political accountability and, 16

revisionism, 60–61, 68, 77, 136, see also aggression; status quo

revolution, definition of, 20–21, 44–48, 251

Revolution and War (Walt), 26, 154Revolutionary Command Council

(RCC) (Iraq), 99, 101, 108, 119; executions of members of, 102; Shi’a in, 116; as supreme executive council, 102

Revolutionary Command Council (RCC) (Libya), 124, 129–133, 148, 149

Revolutionary Committees (Libya), 134, 202

revolutionary councils/committees, 63, see also Revolutionary Command Council (RCC) (Iraq); Revolutionary Command Council (RCC) (Libya); Revolutionary Committees (Libya); revolutionary komitehs (Iran)

revolutionary governments, 13, 90, 147–149, 190, 262; aggression and, 4, 16; Arab Spring and, 15, 261, 264–266; as attacker vs. defender, 20; case study selection and, 51, 52–53; categories excluded from, 63; categories included in, 63, 81; causal mechanism testing and, 55; as caused by oil, 15, 17; definition of, 20–21, 44–48, 81–82, 251, 264–266; degree of, 44; duration of, 45–48, 62; empirical statistical results on, 70–83; as explanatory variable, 62–66, 73; identifying, 42, 44–48; international disputes by, 71t, 78t; MID instigation propensity of, 59–84; in non-petrostates, 36, 265; vs. non-revolutionary governments, 10, 35; as targets of conflict, 38–40, see also Iran; Iraq; Libya; non-revolutionary governments; oil income/revolutionary government interaction; petro-revolutionary governments; revolutionary leaders; Venezuela

revolutionary komitehs (Iran), 162, 164

revolutionary leaders, 20–27, 88, 160, 254; causal mechanism testing and, 55–58; corruption of, 258; dataset






Index308

on, 70; definition of, 21, 44–48, 70, 96, 108; duration of rule by, 45, 46–48, 62; empirical statistical results on, 70–83; incentives of, 22–23, 251, 256–257; of non-petrostates, 88; preferences of, 21–27; Qasim and, 95–97, 117, 118; risk of being overthrown, 22, 33; risk-tolerance of, 4–5, 13, 16, 23–26, 46; status quo and, 22, 33; “unambiguous,” 81, see also Chávez, Hugo; Hussein, Saddam; Khomeini, Ruhollah; leaders; petrostate leaders; Qadhafi, Muammar; risk-tolerance

revolutionary non-petrostates, see non-petrostates

revolutionary petrostates, see petro-revolutionary governments

revolutions, democratizing, 265–266Reyes, Raul, 217Ribas (Venezuelan educational

services), 206Rice, Condoleezza, 147, 212, 260Rincon, Lucas, 203risk-aversion, 18; of Saudi leaders,

225, 243, 244; win sets and, 18risk-tolerance, 4, 19, 86; aggression

and, 19, 24–26; causal mechanism testing and, 55; Chávez and, 191, 220; economic sanctions and, 88; international conflict probability and, 17, 18–20, 36, 245; in Iran, 183, 189; Khomeini and, 24, 183; leaders’ goals and, 22; leaders remaining in office despite, 30–31, 33; oil income as lowering, 30–31, 32–37; of petrostate leaders, 4, 86; Qadhafi and, 129, 148; revolutionary leaders and, 4–5, 13, 16, 23–26, 46; Saddam and, 7, 14, 113, 117, 122; status quo and, 18, 30; in Venezuela, 191, 220

Robinson (Venezuelan educational services), 206

robustness checks, 79–83Rojas, Alberto Muller, 207Romania, 65tRoosevelt, Franklin D., 228, 232Rosen, Stephen, 9Ross, Michael, 27, 37, 49, 84, 265

Russett, Bruce, 32Russia, 26, 65t; case study selection

and, 53–54; natural gas and, 83; petro-revolutionary period in, 67t; revolutionary leaders in, 46; Venezuela and, 211, 214, 216, see also Soviet Union

Russian Revolution (1917), 46Russian–Venezuelan naval exercises

(2008), 216

Sabah, al- family (Kuwait), 114Sadat, Anwar, 110, 138, 233–234Saddam Hussein, see Hussein, SaddamSadr, Moqtada al-, 178Sadun Ghaidan, Mohammad, 98Said, Nuri al-, 94Sallal, Abdullah al-, 230Sanjabi, Karim, 164, 184Santos, Francisco, 218Sao Tome and Principe, 6Saud, King of Saudi Arabia, 226, 229,

230, 243Saudi Arabia, 14, 51, 174, 225,

244–245; Abdullah and, 140, 226, 240–242, 246; Amin and, 139; Arab Spring and, 265; causal mechanism testing in, 242; Fahd and, 34, 114, 226, 235, 236, 243, 245; foreign insurgencies and, 225, 238, 249; foreign policy, before 1967, 231; foreign policy, 1967–1973, 231–235; foreign policy, 1974–1999, 231–235; foreign policy, 2000–2010, 240–242; Ibn Saud and, 226, 228; IPC and, 94; Iran and, 174, 176, 179, 180, 228, 229, 239, 241; Iraq and, 93, 121, 228; Iraq–Kuwait war and, 34, 112, 114, 115; Islam and, 233, 237, 240, 243, 247; Israel and, 226t, 227, 246; Khalid and, 226, 236; Libya and, 14, 51, 53, 127, 228, 246, 247–248, 249; MIDs and, 225, 228, 249; military spending in, 236, 238, 245; monarchy in, 225, 226t; Muslims in, 237, 247; non-revolutionary government of, 151, 242–244, 257, 262; oil embargoes and, 227, 230, 234, 248; oil exports of, 225; oil income as economic incentive for stability in,

revolutionary leaders (cont.)






Index 309

235, 245–247; oil production in, 225, 226–227; OPEC and, 193; Pakistan and, 144; peace in, 2, 161; per-capita income in, 127; as petrostate, 2, 226–227; projected oil supplies from, 271; radical Islam in, 5; risk-aversion in, 225, 243, 244; royal family in, 55; Saud and, 226, 229, 230, 243; stability of, 159, 235, 245–247; Syria and, 131, 231; ulema and, 243, 244, 245, 246; uprising attempts in, 236, 242; Yemen and, 226t, 230, 238, 239, 246, 249, see also Faisal, King of Saudi Arabia; US/Saudi Arabia relationship

Saudi Arabia/Libya comparison, 51, 53, 247–248, 249; per-capita income and, 127; Qadhafi and, 228, 248

Saunders, Elizabeth, 9SAVAK (Iranian intelligence service), 158Saw Maung, 46Schwarzkopf, Norman, 244Sea Isle City (Kuwaiti oil tanker), 177security services in Iraq, 102, 107,

120SELA (Latin American Economic

System), 194Senegal, 6, 137September 11, 2001, 147, 240–241, 249Shah of Iran, see Pahlavi, Mohammad

Rezashariah law, 243Shariatmadari, Ayatollah, 164, 165,

183, 184Shatt al-Arab confrontations, 97, 109,

111, 112, 159, 175Shell Oil, 194, 213Shi’a Muslims in Iraq, 100, 106, 111,

116, 181; opposition by, 113, 115Sierra Leone, 6Siles Zuazo, Hernán, 46Simmons, Beth, 42Simon, William, 236Six-Day War (1967), 110, 230,

231–232; aftermath of, 232; pan-Islamism and, 233, see also Arab–Israeli war (1973)

Skocpol, Theda, 21, 62Smith, Alistair, 251Smith, Benjamin, 84

Snyder, Jack, 9, 10, 62socialism: Chávez and, 192, 220; in

Iraq, 103; in Libya, 124social security system in

Iran, 170Society of Militant Clergy

(Iran), 173The Solution of the Economic

Problem: Socialism (Qadhafi), 134Somalia, 65t, 140South Africa, 65t, 140South Asian region, 69South Korea, 65tSoviet Union, 174, 237, 267; Baghdad

Pact and, 95; collapse of, 146; Iran and, 158; Iraq and, 103, 109; Libya and, 123, 136, 142, 144, 146; Saudi Arabia and, 226t, 228, see also Russia

stability, oil income as incentive for, 30, 35; in Iran, 187; in Iraq, 120–122; in Libya, 150–151; in Saudi Arabia, 159, 235, 245–247; in Venezuela, 222–223

Stalin, Joseph, 46state name change, official: in Iran, 63,

155; in Iraq, 96; in Libya, 124, 134; in Venezuela, 192, 201, 203

status quo, 24, 61, 157; Chávez and, 219; Pahlavi and, 160; revolutionary leadership and, 22, 33; risk-tolerance and, 18, 30

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 215

Sub-Saharan African region, 69subsidies in Iran, 170, 186, 188Sucre (Venezuelan educational ser-

vices), 206Sudan, 28, 65t, 67t, 76, 80t, 83, 88;

Muslim militants and, 181; Qadhafi and, 137, 140, 141; Saudi Arabia and, 238; US and, 231

Suez Canal, 228, 229Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution

(Iraq), 155Supreme Court (Venezuela), 192,

200–201, 203, 220Supreme Defence Council (Iran), 176Supreme Leader role (Iran), 161, 180,

184, 185; Khamenei’s selection into, 172–173






Index310

survival in political office, 22, 33, 114; risk-tolerance and, 30–31, 33, see also leaders; petrostate leaders; revolutionary leaders

Syria, 65t, 67t, 114, 178; Arab–Israeli war and, 234; Arab Spring and, 264; Hezbollah and, 180; Iraq and, 93, 95, 110; Khartoum meeting and, 232; pan-Arabism and, 141; PLO training camps in, 233; Saudi Arabia and, 131, 231; Six-Day War and, 231; Venezuela and, 211

Taleqani, Ayatollah, 164, 184Taliban forces, 178–179Talmadge, Caitlin, 11Tanker War (1984), 82, 112, 121, 177,

187Tanzania, 6, 123, 137, 138–139, 260Tariki, Abdullah, 131Telesur (cable news network), 212Terhalle, Maximilian, 46terrorism, 43; Chávez and, 217; Iraq

and, 1970s, 110; Islam and, 5, 240; Libya and, 76, 123, 136, 140–141, 142, 147

Thailand, 65tThan Shwe, 46Tikriti, Hardan al-, 99, 118Tombalbaye, François N’Garte, 137Total (gas company), 213“Toyota war” (1987), 138transportation sector (US), 269Trinidad and Tobago, 67tTripolitania (Libyan province), 127Tsebelis, George, 55Tucker, Richard, 69Tudeh Party (Iran), 163t, 164, 166t,

168, 176, 186Tulfah, Adnan Khairallah, 101Tunisia, 6, 67t, 141, 264, 265Turkey, 94, 159, 160, 180Turkish Petroleum Company, 94Turkmenistan, 67t“typical states,” 74, 75

Uganda, 6, 65t, 76, 123, 138–139ulema (Islamic clergy), 105, 106, 132,

164; Saudi Arabia and, 243, 244, 245, 246

unification attempts, see pan-ArabismUnited Arab Emirates, 67t, 174, 179,

260United Kingdom, 94, 127, 213, 259;

Iran and, 182, 253; Iraq and, 93, 94, see also Britain

United National Front (Iraq), 95United Nations: economic sanctions

by, 76, 114, 116, 121, 146, 147, 183, 212; Iraq–Kuwait war and, 114, 121; Kurdish rebellions and, 115, see also economic sanctions

UN Security Council, 176, 182United States, 9; Arab–Israeli war

and, 234; Baghdad Pact and, 95; Cuba and, 39, 258; economic sanctions by, 88, 135, 146, 188; energy policy in, 15, 261, 268–271; Exxon-Venezuela dispute and, 213; foreign meddling of, 258; Gulf war and, 241, 249, 263–264; Idris and, 136; IPC and, 94; Iran and, 158, 159, 174, 179, 181, 182, 188, 253, 257; Iranian hostage crisis and, 31, 152, 163t, 165, 175; Iran–Iraq war and, 112, 121, 174, 177; Iraq and, 93, 94, 115, 116, 174, 176, 177; Iraq–Kuwait war and, 34, 114; Israel and, 142, 231; Libyan oil, restrictions on by, 145; military presence of in Middle East, 261, 270; military presence of in North Africa, 270; Occidental Petroleum and, 131; OPEC and, 193; Pahlavi monarchy and, 169; policy implications and, 263, 268; Qods force and, 180; Sudan and, 231; Tanker War and, 121, 177, see also US/Libya relationship; US/Saudi Arabia relationship; US/Venezuela relationship

US Embassy in Tripoli, 141, 142US Energy Information

Agency, 70US/Libya relationship, 123, 136, 137,

262; conflict in, 76, 139; diplomacy in, 142–143; foreign aid and, 124; Libyan military base and, 130; nuclear weapons and, 144–145; rapprochement and, 146; rebel groups and, 140






Index 311

US/Saudi Arabia relationship, 14, 225, 226t, 235–236, 237–239, 246, 254; Afghanistan and, 237; Arab–Israeli war and, 228; Egypt–Yemen conflict and, 230; Fahd and, 244; Faisal and, 232, 246; Ibn Saud and, 245; Israel and, 231, 240; Libya and, 247; before 1967, 228; oil embargoes and, 234, 248; oil income as incentive for stability in, 245; Roosevelt and Ibn Saud and, 228, 232; Six-Day War and, 231, see also Saudi Arabia; United States

US/Venezuela relationship, 31, 191, 191t, 192, 206, 211–212; as allies, 223; conflict in, 216, 219, 221; coup against Chávez and, 203; in 1970s, 195; oil embargo and, 213; realignment of geopolitical alliances in, 221

uprisings in Iraq, 115–116, 119Uribe, Alvaro, 217, 218, 219Uruguay, 214USS Quincy, 228USS Vicennes, 177UTA airline bombing, 136, 140Utaybi, Juhayman al-, 237, 243

Venezuela, 14, 65t, 76, 190, 261, 262; aggression and, 3, 7, 83, 190, 192, 210, 221; Bolivarian Revolution in, 14, 52, 76, 190, 199; case study selection and, 52; causal mechanism testing in, 219–223; central bank of, 192; constitution of, 192, 199, 200; coups in, 193, 198, 203–204; economic transformations in, 161, 204–207, 257; elections in, 195, 199; “50–50” agreement and, 158; foreign meddling and, 259; Iran and, 52, 211, 214; Iraq and, 52, 211, 212; Libya and, 52; Middle East states and, 89; MIDs in, 216, 223; military of, 204, 206, 207, 210, 216; military spending in, 191, 195, 210, 214–216, 221; name and symbols of, 192, 201, 203; nationalization of oil industry in, 193, 195, 205, 210, 213; oil embargoes and, 31, 213; oil exports of, 49; oil income

as economic incentive for aggression and conflict in, 221; oil income as economic incentive for stability in, 222–223; oil production in, 161, 191, 192, 221; period as petro-revolutionary, 67t; politics in, before Chávez presidency, 192; politics in, 1999–2010 (domestic), 199; politics in, 1999–2010 (foreign), 210–219; power in, 191, 192, 200, 204; research in, 42, see also Chávez, Hugo; Colombia/Venezuela relationship; foreign policy of Venezuela; US/Venezuela relationship

Venezuelan Air Force, 197Victor, David, xiii, 3violence, 23, 69; domestic, 5; of

petrostates, 2, see also civil war(s)Visconti, Francisco, 197

Walt, Stephen, 10, 21, 26, 61, 154war, 69, 265; debt and, 113;

declaration of, 57t, 118, 134; Gulf war, 241, 249; Six-Day War, 110, 230, 231–232, 233; World War II, 94, 127, 156, 248 see also Arab–Israeli war (1973); civil war(s); Cold War (1947–1991); Iran–Iraq war (1980); Iraq–Kuwait war (1990)

Warsaw Pact, 178war victims’ compensation (Iran), 171,

186Weeks, Jessica, xiii, 79Western European region, 69West Germany, 144White Revolution (1963) (Iran), 159Widner, Jennifer, xiiWilhelm II, King of Germany, 22Wilpert, Gregory, 208Wilson, Guido Antonini, 212win sets, 18, 19women’s rights: in Iran, 63, 155, 173;

in Iraq, 104; in Libya, 124worker cooperatives (Venezuela), 204World Bank, 69, 70, 194; Venezuela

and, 211, 222World Christian Database, 69World Development Indicators (World

Bank), 211






Index312

World Muslim League, 233World War II, 94, 127, 156, 248

Yahya, Tahir, 98, 118Yamani, Ahmad Zaki, 232Yeltsin, Boris, 53, 54Yemen, 67t, 94, 232; Arab Spring and,

264; civil war in, 227, 230; Saudi

Arabia and, 226t, 230, 238, 239, 246, 249

Yergin, Daniel, 128–129Yugoslavia, 65t

Zahedi, Fazlollah, 157Zimbabwe, 65t, 140Zionists, 240






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