INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

94
BA (Hons) Accounting and Finance A PROPOSED OUTLINE OF THE DISSERTATION - PRELIMINARY PAGES AND CHAPTERS Word count: 12 317

Transcript of INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

Page 1: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

BA (Hons) Accounting and Finance

A PROPOSED OUTLINE OFTHE DISSERTATION

- PRELIMINARY PAGES AND CHAPTERS

Word count 12 317

Title page

AN INVESTIGATION INTO INVESTING IN UNIT TRUSTS AS OPPOSED TO

STOCK MARKET IN BUILDING PROFITABLE PORTFOLIOS

RESEARCH DISSERTATION

By

CHILO TUMO KETLHOAFETSESTUDENT NUMBER 100326620

Submitted as partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree

Bachelor of Arts (Honours)(Accounting and Finance)

UNIVERSITY OF DERBY

May 2016

DECLARATION

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I Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse hereby declare that this independent study is my own original work and

that no part of it has been plagiarised Where ideas from other authors in any form (eg ideas figures

texts and tables) are used they are acknowledged and referenced in accordance with the Harvard

referencing system

_____________________________

Signature 5 May 2016

Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse

Table of Contents

DECLARATION3

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS7

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ABSTRACT8

LIST OF TABLES9

LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS10

CHAPTER 111

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND11

11 INTRODUCTION11

12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION11

13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY11

14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY11

15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS12

16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY13

17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS13

BIBLIOGRAPHY13

CHAPTER 215

LITERATURE REVIEW15

21 INTRODUCTION15

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES15

221 Classification of the two asset classes15

222 Unit trusts Performance16

223 Stock market Performance17

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING18

231 Investment Theories18

232 Investor Perceptions19

233 Portfolio Building20

24 CONCLUSION21

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW22

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY22

CHAPTER 323

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY23

31 INTRODUCTION23

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY24

33 RESEARCH APPROACH24

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY24

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35 THE RESEARCH METHODS25

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)26

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)27

353 Data collection procedure27

354 Data analysis procedure28

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)28

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS29

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY30

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)30

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY30

CHAPTER 431

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS31

41 INTRODUCTION31

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY31

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED31

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS31

45 MAJOR FINDINGS32

451 Objective 132

452 Objective 234

453 Objective 339

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS40

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY41

CHAPTER 542

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42

51 INTRODUCTION42

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42

521 Reinforcing what is already known42

522 What is new and different in the findings43

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field44

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY44

CHAPTER 645

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS45

61 INTRODUCTION45

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62 CONCLUSIONS45

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS46

64 LIMITATIONS47

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY47

CHAPTER 748

REFLECTIONS48

REFERENCE50

APPENDICES55

Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire55

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions59

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends60

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations61

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This research represents a great portion of my undergraduate study in the Honours Degree in

Accounting and Finance with the University of Derby The process of gathering throughout to

achieving the aim has been so intense in that it demanded a great deal of time hard work focus and

attention which in turn resulted in a greater understanding in the nature of this topic

First and foremost I would like to thank Mr Munyaradzi Nyandoro as my project supervisor for

sharing his intellect with me over this investment topic with him being the lsquoChief Economistrsquo in

Botswana Accountancy College My sincerest gratitude and appreciation go to him as his support

acted as a gear towards my understanding of this research and it would have not been possible without

his assistance and unwavering support For this I would like to thank him dearly for his guidance and

patience throughout

I would also like to extend my sincere gratitudersquos for their continuous support in this research

understanding of its dynamics and thereby apprehending the footprint towards achieving my aim Dr

Gande truly has been a blessing especially through his patience by lecturing us on Independent Studies

and also Financial Reporting hence spending a great deal of time amongst such a large number of

students Again I thank you dearly along with the other BAC lectures for their contribution expressed

anyhow

Furthermore I would also like to thank Thabelo Nemaorani of the Botswana Stock Exchange for his

extended support for providing information about stocks and the general overview of Botswana

investments though he was not obliged to do so I thank him utmost The same goes for Mogi Lebetwa

of Imara Capital Securities who took time off her busy schedule to assist me where possible about

investment opportunities availed in the country and how I would incorporate that in my study This is

truly heartfelt and I am really grateful

7 | P a g e

ABSTRACT

Investment opportunities remain vast within the Botswana economy and investors seek to make wise

choices about their investments hence would require help selecting the most profitable from the

options presented to them Recent studies have showed their own view of unit trusts and the stock

market and how to benefit from them but none has touched on the long term investment especially

generally for Botswana This dissertation aims to evaluate a structure of investing both unit trusts and

into the stock market using the unique earnings capabilities of the respective asset classes Current

literature has outlined that the unit trust industry is one of the fastest growing in the finance sector and

their competitive edge lies with their diversification thereby minimising risk and creating room for

wealth creation while on the other hand the stock market bears a number of systematic risks for

different types of stock available With higher risks are an expectation of higher returns hence risk

takers would benefit vastly The researcher adopted an abductive approach for a pragmatist philosophy

so say that there are a number of ways to interpret one picture hence being open minded about

investment ventures available for inclusion in onersquos portfolio Instruments such as questionnaires were

used to collect data and analysis for which done though statistical softwarersquos archival research

analysis which was quantitative was through the assistance of Microsoft excel The data was collected

from a sample of investors whom a good number of which are of have a University degree in Finance

hence have sound knowledge on the dynamics of investing The study found that BIHL from the

sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the most profitable stock on the stock

exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which investors should venture into and are the

money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The study has also found that a number of

investors would like to invest in the future and are certain about investing their money in a company

than keeping it in a bank only a fair number of the participants seem aware of fund managers

available in the country hence this research would like to bridge the gap of lack of sufficient

information The concluding decisions emphasised henceforth was that indeed stock and unit trusts are

profitable in the short medium and long term thus the recommendation is to invest in both starting

with unit trusts then the stock market given that capital is adequate The limitation of the study though

is the assumption of adequate capital which is not always so and lack of a third party to corroborate the

prospected portfolio for Batswana investors

8 | P a g e

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1- Research methods25

Table 2-SPSS reliability test29

Table 3- Background data31

Table 4- Education level32

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32

Table 6- Questionnaire findings34

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137

Table 8- Pearson correlation 237

Table 9- Pearson correlation 337

Table 10- Pearson correlation 438

Table 11- Pearson correlation 538

Table 12- Anova regression analysis38

9 | P a g e

LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23

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CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

11 INTRODUCTION

This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will

follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building

profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with

the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would

henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions

The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking

answers and solutions to the questions laid forth

12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION

-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment

portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles

-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming

adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas

13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY

Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing

segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM

Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are

not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures

11 | P a g e

to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with

their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put

in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study

focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana

To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to

investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with

respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better

portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because

many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment

structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence

potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in

turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole

15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS

Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means

toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of

the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement

packages

Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the

actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a

business environment

Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial

institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested

into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)

Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are

secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)

Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on

an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)

Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public

for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)

12 | P a g e

16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY

The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the

most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which

investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The

study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain

whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund

managers available in the country

17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS

This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the

researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo

did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current

literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology

emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this

chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the

conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The

final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance

and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part

B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010

2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol

18 Iss 2 pp 157-172

3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani

(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52

Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017

4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing

model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol

52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313

13 | P a g e

5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend

irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash

241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638

14 | P a g e

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING

21 INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market

to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with

motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research

conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors

affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and

term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock

market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in

mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of

the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio

building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the

study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the

Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective

economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the

direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the

study

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes

2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by

investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a

vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be

invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers

themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit

trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector

2212 Stock Market

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Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio

and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return

predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)

222 Unit trusts Performance

2221 Rewards

A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao

Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts

possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic

mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported

by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their

investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of

mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a

diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found

that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of

mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these

factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that

independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct

greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence

management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect

creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele

2222 Risk

Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a

manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into

concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund

managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is

because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum

16 | P a g e

strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in

search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the

CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The

same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to

poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior

to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)

2223 Author Advocacy

The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first

investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment

firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research

conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and

the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is

during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis

unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and

supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be

profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers

but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back

seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that

market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore

good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the

contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose

much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver

223 Stock market Performance

2231 Rewards

Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by

Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor

John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-

down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom

up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell

market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this

quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of

opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore

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Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 2: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

AN INVESTIGATION INTO INVESTING IN UNIT TRUSTS AS OPPOSED TO

STOCK MARKET IN BUILDING PROFITABLE PORTFOLIOS

RESEARCH DISSERTATION

By

CHILO TUMO KETLHOAFETSESTUDENT NUMBER 100326620

Submitted as partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree

Bachelor of Arts (Honours)(Accounting and Finance)

UNIVERSITY OF DERBY

May 2016

DECLARATION

2 | P a g e

I Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse hereby declare that this independent study is my own original work and

that no part of it has been plagiarised Where ideas from other authors in any form (eg ideas figures

texts and tables) are used they are acknowledged and referenced in accordance with the Harvard

referencing system

_____________________________

Signature 5 May 2016

Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse

Table of Contents

DECLARATION3

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS7

3 | P a g e

ABSTRACT8

LIST OF TABLES9

LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS10

CHAPTER 111

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND11

11 INTRODUCTION11

12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION11

13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY11

14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY11

15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS12

16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY13

17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS13

BIBLIOGRAPHY13

CHAPTER 215

LITERATURE REVIEW15

21 INTRODUCTION15

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES15

221 Classification of the two asset classes15

222 Unit trusts Performance16

223 Stock market Performance17

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING18

231 Investment Theories18

232 Investor Perceptions19

233 Portfolio Building20

24 CONCLUSION21

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW22

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY22

CHAPTER 323

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY23

31 INTRODUCTION23

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY24

33 RESEARCH APPROACH24

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY24

4 | P a g e

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS25

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)26

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)27

353 Data collection procedure27

354 Data analysis procedure28

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)28

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS29

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY30

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)30

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY30

CHAPTER 431

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS31

41 INTRODUCTION31

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY31

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED31

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS31

45 MAJOR FINDINGS32

451 Objective 132

452 Objective 234

453 Objective 339

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS40

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY41

CHAPTER 542

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42

51 INTRODUCTION42

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42

521 Reinforcing what is already known42

522 What is new and different in the findings43

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field44

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY44

CHAPTER 645

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS45

61 INTRODUCTION45

5 | P a g e

62 CONCLUSIONS45

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS46

64 LIMITATIONS47

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY47

CHAPTER 748

REFLECTIONS48

REFERENCE50

APPENDICES55

Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire55

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions59

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends60

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations61

6 | P a g e

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This research represents a great portion of my undergraduate study in the Honours Degree in

Accounting and Finance with the University of Derby The process of gathering throughout to

achieving the aim has been so intense in that it demanded a great deal of time hard work focus and

attention which in turn resulted in a greater understanding in the nature of this topic

First and foremost I would like to thank Mr Munyaradzi Nyandoro as my project supervisor for

sharing his intellect with me over this investment topic with him being the lsquoChief Economistrsquo in

Botswana Accountancy College My sincerest gratitude and appreciation go to him as his support

acted as a gear towards my understanding of this research and it would have not been possible without

his assistance and unwavering support For this I would like to thank him dearly for his guidance and

patience throughout

I would also like to extend my sincere gratitudersquos for their continuous support in this research

understanding of its dynamics and thereby apprehending the footprint towards achieving my aim Dr

Gande truly has been a blessing especially through his patience by lecturing us on Independent Studies

and also Financial Reporting hence spending a great deal of time amongst such a large number of

students Again I thank you dearly along with the other BAC lectures for their contribution expressed

anyhow

Furthermore I would also like to thank Thabelo Nemaorani of the Botswana Stock Exchange for his

extended support for providing information about stocks and the general overview of Botswana

investments though he was not obliged to do so I thank him utmost The same goes for Mogi Lebetwa

of Imara Capital Securities who took time off her busy schedule to assist me where possible about

investment opportunities availed in the country and how I would incorporate that in my study This is

truly heartfelt and I am really grateful

7 | P a g e

ABSTRACT

Investment opportunities remain vast within the Botswana economy and investors seek to make wise

choices about their investments hence would require help selecting the most profitable from the

options presented to them Recent studies have showed their own view of unit trusts and the stock

market and how to benefit from them but none has touched on the long term investment especially

generally for Botswana This dissertation aims to evaluate a structure of investing both unit trusts and

into the stock market using the unique earnings capabilities of the respective asset classes Current

literature has outlined that the unit trust industry is one of the fastest growing in the finance sector and

their competitive edge lies with their diversification thereby minimising risk and creating room for

wealth creation while on the other hand the stock market bears a number of systematic risks for

different types of stock available With higher risks are an expectation of higher returns hence risk

takers would benefit vastly The researcher adopted an abductive approach for a pragmatist philosophy

so say that there are a number of ways to interpret one picture hence being open minded about

investment ventures available for inclusion in onersquos portfolio Instruments such as questionnaires were

used to collect data and analysis for which done though statistical softwarersquos archival research

analysis which was quantitative was through the assistance of Microsoft excel The data was collected

from a sample of investors whom a good number of which are of have a University degree in Finance

hence have sound knowledge on the dynamics of investing The study found that BIHL from the

sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the most profitable stock on the stock

exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which investors should venture into and are the

money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The study has also found that a number of

investors would like to invest in the future and are certain about investing their money in a company

than keeping it in a bank only a fair number of the participants seem aware of fund managers

available in the country hence this research would like to bridge the gap of lack of sufficient

information The concluding decisions emphasised henceforth was that indeed stock and unit trusts are

profitable in the short medium and long term thus the recommendation is to invest in both starting

with unit trusts then the stock market given that capital is adequate The limitation of the study though

is the assumption of adequate capital which is not always so and lack of a third party to corroborate the

prospected portfolio for Batswana investors

8 | P a g e

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1- Research methods25

Table 2-SPSS reliability test29

Table 3- Background data31

Table 4- Education level32

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32

Table 6- Questionnaire findings34

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137

Table 8- Pearson correlation 237

Table 9- Pearson correlation 337

Table 10- Pearson correlation 438

Table 11- Pearson correlation 538

Table 12- Anova regression analysis38

9 | P a g e

LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23

10 | P a g e

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

11 INTRODUCTION

This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will

follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building

profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with

the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would

henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions

The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking

answers and solutions to the questions laid forth

12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION

-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment

portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles

-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming

adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas

13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY

Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing

segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM

Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are

not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures

11 | P a g e

to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with

their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put

in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study

focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana

To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to

investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with

respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better

portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because

many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment

structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence

potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in

turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole

15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS

Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means

toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of

the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement

packages

Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the

actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a

business environment

Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial

institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested

into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)

Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are

secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)

Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on

an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)

Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public

for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)

12 | P a g e

16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY

The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the

most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which

investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The

study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain

whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund

managers available in the country

17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS

This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the

researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo

did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current

literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology

emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this

chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the

conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The

final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance

and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part

B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010

2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol

18 Iss 2 pp 157-172

3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani

(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52

Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017

4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing

model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol

52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313

13 | P a g e

5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend

irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash

241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638

14 | P a g e

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING

21 INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market

to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with

motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research

conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors

affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and

term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock

market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in

mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of

the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio

building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the

study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the

Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective

economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the

direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the

study

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes

2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by

investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a

vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be

invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers

themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit

trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector

2212 Stock Market

15 | P a g e

Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio

and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return

predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)

222 Unit trusts Performance

2221 Rewards

A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao

Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts

possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic

mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported

by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their

investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of

mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a

diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found

that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of

mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these

factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that

independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct

greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence

management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect

creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele

2222 Risk

Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a

manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into

concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund

managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is

because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum

16 | P a g e

strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in

search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the

CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The

same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to

poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior

to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)

2223 Author Advocacy

The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first

investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment

firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research

conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and

the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is

during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis

unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and

supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be

profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers

but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back

seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that

market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore

good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the

contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose

much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver

223 Stock market Performance

2231 Rewards

Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by

Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor

John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-

down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom

up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell

market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this

quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of

opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore

17 | P a g e

Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 3: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

I Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse hereby declare that this independent study is my own original work and

that no part of it has been plagiarised Where ideas from other authors in any form (eg ideas figures

texts and tables) are used they are acknowledged and referenced in accordance with the Harvard

referencing system

_____________________________

Signature 5 May 2016

Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse

Table of Contents

DECLARATION3

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS7

3 | P a g e

ABSTRACT8

LIST OF TABLES9

LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS10

CHAPTER 111

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND11

11 INTRODUCTION11

12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION11

13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY11

14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY11

15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS12

16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY13

17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS13

BIBLIOGRAPHY13

CHAPTER 215

LITERATURE REVIEW15

21 INTRODUCTION15

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES15

221 Classification of the two asset classes15

222 Unit trusts Performance16

223 Stock market Performance17

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING18

231 Investment Theories18

232 Investor Perceptions19

233 Portfolio Building20

24 CONCLUSION21

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW22

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY22

CHAPTER 323

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY23

31 INTRODUCTION23

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY24

33 RESEARCH APPROACH24

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY24

4 | P a g e

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS25

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)26

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)27

353 Data collection procedure27

354 Data analysis procedure28

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)28

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS29

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY30

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)30

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY30

CHAPTER 431

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS31

41 INTRODUCTION31

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY31

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED31

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS31

45 MAJOR FINDINGS32

451 Objective 132

452 Objective 234

453 Objective 339

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS40

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY41

CHAPTER 542

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42

51 INTRODUCTION42

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42

521 Reinforcing what is already known42

522 What is new and different in the findings43

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field44

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY44

CHAPTER 645

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS45

61 INTRODUCTION45

5 | P a g e

62 CONCLUSIONS45

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS46

64 LIMITATIONS47

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY47

CHAPTER 748

REFLECTIONS48

REFERENCE50

APPENDICES55

Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire55

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions59

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends60

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations61

6 | P a g e

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This research represents a great portion of my undergraduate study in the Honours Degree in

Accounting and Finance with the University of Derby The process of gathering throughout to

achieving the aim has been so intense in that it demanded a great deal of time hard work focus and

attention which in turn resulted in a greater understanding in the nature of this topic

First and foremost I would like to thank Mr Munyaradzi Nyandoro as my project supervisor for

sharing his intellect with me over this investment topic with him being the lsquoChief Economistrsquo in

Botswana Accountancy College My sincerest gratitude and appreciation go to him as his support

acted as a gear towards my understanding of this research and it would have not been possible without

his assistance and unwavering support For this I would like to thank him dearly for his guidance and

patience throughout

I would also like to extend my sincere gratitudersquos for their continuous support in this research

understanding of its dynamics and thereby apprehending the footprint towards achieving my aim Dr

Gande truly has been a blessing especially through his patience by lecturing us on Independent Studies

and also Financial Reporting hence spending a great deal of time amongst such a large number of

students Again I thank you dearly along with the other BAC lectures for their contribution expressed

anyhow

Furthermore I would also like to thank Thabelo Nemaorani of the Botswana Stock Exchange for his

extended support for providing information about stocks and the general overview of Botswana

investments though he was not obliged to do so I thank him utmost The same goes for Mogi Lebetwa

of Imara Capital Securities who took time off her busy schedule to assist me where possible about

investment opportunities availed in the country and how I would incorporate that in my study This is

truly heartfelt and I am really grateful

7 | P a g e

ABSTRACT

Investment opportunities remain vast within the Botswana economy and investors seek to make wise

choices about their investments hence would require help selecting the most profitable from the

options presented to them Recent studies have showed their own view of unit trusts and the stock

market and how to benefit from them but none has touched on the long term investment especially

generally for Botswana This dissertation aims to evaluate a structure of investing both unit trusts and

into the stock market using the unique earnings capabilities of the respective asset classes Current

literature has outlined that the unit trust industry is one of the fastest growing in the finance sector and

their competitive edge lies with their diversification thereby minimising risk and creating room for

wealth creation while on the other hand the stock market bears a number of systematic risks for

different types of stock available With higher risks are an expectation of higher returns hence risk

takers would benefit vastly The researcher adopted an abductive approach for a pragmatist philosophy

so say that there are a number of ways to interpret one picture hence being open minded about

investment ventures available for inclusion in onersquos portfolio Instruments such as questionnaires were

used to collect data and analysis for which done though statistical softwarersquos archival research

analysis which was quantitative was through the assistance of Microsoft excel The data was collected

from a sample of investors whom a good number of which are of have a University degree in Finance

hence have sound knowledge on the dynamics of investing The study found that BIHL from the

sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the most profitable stock on the stock

exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which investors should venture into and are the

money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The study has also found that a number of

investors would like to invest in the future and are certain about investing their money in a company

than keeping it in a bank only a fair number of the participants seem aware of fund managers

available in the country hence this research would like to bridge the gap of lack of sufficient

information The concluding decisions emphasised henceforth was that indeed stock and unit trusts are

profitable in the short medium and long term thus the recommendation is to invest in both starting

with unit trusts then the stock market given that capital is adequate The limitation of the study though

is the assumption of adequate capital which is not always so and lack of a third party to corroborate the

prospected portfolio for Batswana investors

8 | P a g e

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1- Research methods25

Table 2-SPSS reliability test29

Table 3- Background data31

Table 4- Education level32

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32

Table 6- Questionnaire findings34

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137

Table 8- Pearson correlation 237

Table 9- Pearson correlation 337

Table 10- Pearson correlation 438

Table 11- Pearson correlation 538

Table 12- Anova regression analysis38

9 | P a g e

LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23

10 | P a g e

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

11 INTRODUCTION

This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will

follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building

profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with

the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would

henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions

The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking

answers and solutions to the questions laid forth

12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION

-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment

portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles

-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming

adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas

13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY

Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing

segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM

Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are

not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures

11 | P a g e

to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with

their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put

in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study

focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana

To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to

investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with

respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better

portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because

many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment

structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence

potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in

turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole

15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS

Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means

toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of

the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement

packages

Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the

actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a

business environment

Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial

institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested

into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)

Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are

secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)

Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on

an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)

Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public

for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)

12 | P a g e

16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY

The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the

most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which

investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The

study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain

whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund

managers available in the country

17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS

This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the

researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo

did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current

literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology

emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this

chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the

conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The

final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance

and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part

B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010

2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol

18 Iss 2 pp 157-172

3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani

(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52

Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017

4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing

model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol

52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313

13 | P a g e

5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend

irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash

241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638

14 | P a g e

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING

21 INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market

to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with

motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research

conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors

affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and

term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock

market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in

mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of

the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio

building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the

study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the

Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective

economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the

direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the

study

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes

2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by

investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a

vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be

invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers

themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit

trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector

2212 Stock Market

15 | P a g e

Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio

and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return

predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)

222 Unit trusts Performance

2221 Rewards

A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao

Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts

possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic

mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported

by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their

investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of

mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a

diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found

that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of

mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these

factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that

independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct

greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence

management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect

creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele

2222 Risk

Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a

manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into

concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund

managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is

because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum

16 | P a g e

strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in

search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the

CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The

same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to

poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior

to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)

2223 Author Advocacy

The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first

investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment

firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research

conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and

the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is

during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis

unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and

supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be

profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers

but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back

seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that

market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore

good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the

contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose

much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver

223 Stock market Performance

2231 Rewards

Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by

Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor

John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-

down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom

up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell

market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this

quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of

opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore

17 | P a g e

Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 4: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

ABSTRACT8

LIST OF TABLES9

LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS10

CHAPTER 111

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND11

11 INTRODUCTION11

12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION11

13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY11

14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY11

15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS12

16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY13

17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS13

BIBLIOGRAPHY13

CHAPTER 215

LITERATURE REVIEW15

21 INTRODUCTION15

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES15

221 Classification of the two asset classes15

222 Unit trusts Performance16

223 Stock market Performance17

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING18

231 Investment Theories18

232 Investor Perceptions19

233 Portfolio Building20

24 CONCLUSION21

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW22

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY22

CHAPTER 323

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY23

31 INTRODUCTION23

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY24

33 RESEARCH APPROACH24

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY24

4 | P a g e

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS25

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)26

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)27

353 Data collection procedure27

354 Data analysis procedure28

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)28

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS29

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY30

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)30

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY30

CHAPTER 431

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS31

41 INTRODUCTION31

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY31

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED31

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS31

45 MAJOR FINDINGS32

451 Objective 132

452 Objective 234

453 Objective 339

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS40

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY41

CHAPTER 542

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42

51 INTRODUCTION42

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42

521 Reinforcing what is already known42

522 What is new and different in the findings43

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field44

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY44

CHAPTER 645

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS45

61 INTRODUCTION45

5 | P a g e

62 CONCLUSIONS45

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS46

64 LIMITATIONS47

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY47

CHAPTER 748

REFLECTIONS48

REFERENCE50

APPENDICES55

Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire55

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions59

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends60

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations61

6 | P a g e

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This research represents a great portion of my undergraduate study in the Honours Degree in

Accounting and Finance with the University of Derby The process of gathering throughout to

achieving the aim has been so intense in that it demanded a great deal of time hard work focus and

attention which in turn resulted in a greater understanding in the nature of this topic

First and foremost I would like to thank Mr Munyaradzi Nyandoro as my project supervisor for

sharing his intellect with me over this investment topic with him being the lsquoChief Economistrsquo in

Botswana Accountancy College My sincerest gratitude and appreciation go to him as his support

acted as a gear towards my understanding of this research and it would have not been possible without

his assistance and unwavering support For this I would like to thank him dearly for his guidance and

patience throughout

I would also like to extend my sincere gratitudersquos for their continuous support in this research

understanding of its dynamics and thereby apprehending the footprint towards achieving my aim Dr

Gande truly has been a blessing especially through his patience by lecturing us on Independent Studies

and also Financial Reporting hence spending a great deal of time amongst such a large number of

students Again I thank you dearly along with the other BAC lectures for their contribution expressed

anyhow

Furthermore I would also like to thank Thabelo Nemaorani of the Botswana Stock Exchange for his

extended support for providing information about stocks and the general overview of Botswana

investments though he was not obliged to do so I thank him utmost The same goes for Mogi Lebetwa

of Imara Capital Securities who took time off her busy schedule to assist me where possible about

investment opportunities availed in the country and how I would incorporate that in my study This is

truly heartfelt and I am really grateful

7 | P a g e

ABSTRACT

Investment opportunities remain vast within the Botswana economy and investors seek to make wise

choices about their investments hence would require help selecting the most profitable from the

options presented to them Recent studies have showed their own view of unit trusts and the stock

market and how to benefit from them but none has touched on the long term investment especially

generally for Botswana This dissertation aims to evaluate a structure of investing both unit trusts and

into the stock market using the unique earnings capabilities of the respective asset classes Current

literature has outlined that the unit trust industry is one of the fastest growing in the finance sector and

their competitive edge lies with their diversification thereby minimising risk and creating room for

wealth creation while on the other hand the stock market bears a number of systematic risks for

different types of stock available With higher risks are an expectation of higher returns hence risk

takers would benefit vastly The researcher adopted an abductive approach for a pragmatist philosophy

so say that there are a number of ways to interpret one picture hence being open minded about

investment ventures available for inclusion in onersquos portfolio Instruments such as questionnaires were

used to collect data and analysis for which done though statistical softwarersquos archival research

analysis which was quantitative was through the assistance of Microsoft excel The data was collected

from a sample of investors whom a good number of which are of have a University degree in Finance

hence have sound knowledge on the dynamics of investing The study found that BIHL from the

sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the most profitable stock on the stock

exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which investors should venture into and are the

money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The study has also found that a number of

investors would like to invest in the future and are certain about investing their money in a company

than keeping it in a bank only a fair number of the participants seem aware of fund managers

available in the country hence this research would like to bridge the gap of lack of sufficient

information The concluding decisions emphasised henceforth was that indeed stock and unit trusts are

profitable in the short medium and long term thus the recommendation is to invest in both starting

with unit trusts then the stock market given that capital is adequate The limitation of the study though

is the assumption of adequate capital which is not always so and lack of a third party to corroborate the

prospected portfolio for Batswana investors

8 | P a g e

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1- Research methods25

Table 2-SPSS reliability test29

Table 3- Background data31

Table 4- Education level32

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32

Table 6- Questionnaire findings34

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137

Table 8- Pearson correlation 237

Table 9- Pearson correlation 337

Table 10- Pearson correlation 438

Table 11- Pearson correlation 538

Table 12- Anova regression analysis38

9 | P a g e

LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23

10 | P a g e

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

11 INTRODUCTION

This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will

follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building

profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with

the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would

henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions

The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking

answers and solutions to the questions laid forth

12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION

-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment

portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles

-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming

adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas

13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY

Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing

segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM

Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are

not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures

11 | P a g e

to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with

their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put

in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study

focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana

To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to

investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with

respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better

portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because

many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment

structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence

potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in

turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole

15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS

Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means

toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of

the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement

packages

Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the

actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a

business environment

Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial

institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested

into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)

Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are

secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)

Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on

an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)

Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public

for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)

12 | P a g e

16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY

The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the

most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which

investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The

study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain

whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund

managers available in the country

17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS

This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the

researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo

did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current

literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology

emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this

chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the

conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The

final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance

and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part

B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010

2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol

18 Iss 2 pp 157-172

3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani

(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52

Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017

4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing

model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol

52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313

13 | P a g e

5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend

irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash

241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638

14 | P a g e

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING

21 INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market

to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with

motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research

conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors

affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and

term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock

market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in

mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of

the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio

building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the

study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the

Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective

economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the

direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the

study

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes

2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by

investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a

vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be

invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers

themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit

trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector

2212 Stock Market

15 | P a g e

Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio

and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return

predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)

222 Unit trusts Performance

2221 Rewards

A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao

Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts

possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic

mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported

by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their

investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of

mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a

diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found

that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of

mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these

factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that

independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct

greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence

management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect

creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele

2222 Risk

Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a

manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into

concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund

managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is

because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum

16 | P a g e

strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in

search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the

CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The

same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to

poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior

to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)

2223 Author Advocacy

The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first

investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment

firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research

conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and

the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is

during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis

unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and

supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be

profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers

but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back

seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that

market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore

good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the

contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose

much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver

223 Stock market Performance

2231 Rewards

Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by

Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor

John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-

down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom

up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell

market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this

quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of

opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore

17 | P a g e

Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 5: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS25

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)26

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)27

353 Data collection procedure27

354 Data analysis procedure28

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)28

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS29

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY30

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)30

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY30

CHAPTER 431

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS31

41 INTRODUCTION31

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY31

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED31

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS31

45 MAJOR FINDINGS32

451 Objective 132

452 Objective 234

453 Objective 339

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS40

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY41

CHAPTER 542

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42

51 INTRODUCTION42

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42

521 Reinforcing what is already known42

522 What is new and different in the findings43

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field44

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY44

CHAPTER 645

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS45

61 INTRODUCTION45

5 | P a g e

62 CONCLUSIONS45

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS46

64 LIMITATIONS47

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY47

CHAPTER 748

REFLECTIONS48

REFERENCE50

APPENDICES55

Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire55

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions59

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends60

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations61

6 | P a g e

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This research represents a great portion of my undergraduate study in the Honours Degree in

Accounting and Finance with the University of Derby The process of gathering throughout to

achieving the aim has been so intense in that it demanded a great deal of time hard work focus and

attention which in turn resulted in a greater understanding in the nature of this topic

First and foremost I would like to thank Mr Munyaradzi Nyandoro as my project supervisor for

sharing his intellect with me over this investment topic with him being the lsquoChief Economistrsquo in

Botswana Accountancy College My sincerest gratitude and appreciation go to him as his support

acted as a gear towards my understanding of this research and it would have not been possible without

his assistance and unwavering support For this I would like to thank him dearly for his guidance and

patience throughout

I would also like to extend my sincere gratitudersquos for their continuous support in this research

understanding of its dynamics and thereby apprehending the footprint towards achieving my aim Dr

Gande truly has been a blessing especially through his patience by lecturing us on Independent Studies

and also Financial Reporting hence spending a great deal of time amongst such a large number of

students Again I thank you dearly along with the other BAC lectures for their contribution expressed

anyhow

Furthermore I would also like to thank Thabelo Nemaorani of the Botswana Stock Exchange for his

extended support for providing information about stocks and the general overview of Botswana

investments though he was not obliged to do so I thank him utmost The same goes for Mogi Lebetwa

of Imara Capital Securities who took time off her busy schedule to assist me where possible about

investment opportunities availed in the country and how I would incorporate that in my study This is

truly heartfelt and I am really grateful

7 | P a g e

ABSTRACT

Investment opportunities remain vast within the Botswana economy and investors seek to make wise

choices about their investments hence would require help selecting the most profitable from the

options presented to them Recent studies have showed their own view of unit trusts and the stock

market and how to benefit from them but none has touched on the long term investment especially

generally for Botswana This dissertation aims to evaluate a structure of investing both unit trusts and

into the stock market using the unique earnings capabilities of the respective asset classes Current

literature has outlined that the unit trust industry is one of the fastest growing in the finance sector and

their competitive edge lies with their diversification thereby minimising risk and creating room for

wealth creation while on the other hand the stock market bears a number of systematic risks for

different types of stock available With higher risks are an expectation of higher returns hence risk

takers would benefit vastly The researcher adopted an abductive approach for a pragmatist philosophy

so say that there are a number of ways to interpret one picture hence being open minded about

investment ventures available for inclusion in onersquos portfolio Instruments such as questionnaires were

used to collect data and analysis for which done though statistical softwarersquos archival research

analysis which was quantitative was through the assistance of Microsoft excel The data was collected

from a sample of investors whom a good number of which are of have a University degree in Finance

hence have sound knowledge on the dynamics of investing The study found that BIHL from the

sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the most profitable stock on the stock

exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which investors should venture into and are the

money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The study has also found that a number of

investors would like to invest in the future and are certain about investing their money in a company

than keeping it in a bank only a fair number of the participants seem aware of fund managers

available in the country hence this research would like to bridge the gap of lack of sufficient

information The concluding decisions emphasised henceforth was that indeed stock and unit trusts are

profitable in the short medium and long term thus the recommendation is to invest in both starting

with unit trusts then the stock market given that capital is adequate The limitation of the study though

is the assumption of adequate capital which is not always so and lack of a third party to corroborate the

prospected portfolio for Batswana investors

8 | P a g e

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1- Research methods25

Table 2-SPSS reliability test29

Table 3- Background data31

Table 4- Education level32

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32

Table 6- Questionnaire findings34

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137

Table 8- Pearson correlation 237

Table 9- Pearson correlation 337

Table 10- Pearson correlation 438

Table 11- Pearson correlation 538

Table 12- Anova regression analysis38

9 | P a g e

LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23

10 | P a g e

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

11 INTRODUCTION

This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will

follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building

profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with

the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would

henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions

The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking

answers and solutions to the questions laid forth

12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION

-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment

portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles

-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming

adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas

13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY

Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing

segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM

Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are

not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures

11 | P a g e

to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with

their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put

in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study

focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana

To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to

investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with

respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better

portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because

many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment

structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence

potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in

turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole

15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS

Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means

toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of

the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement

packages

Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the

actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a

business environment

Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial

institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested

into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)

Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are

secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)

Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on

an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)

Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public

for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)

12 | P a g e

16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY

The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the

most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which

investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The

study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain

whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund

managers available in the country

17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS

This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the

researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo

did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current

literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology

emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this

chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the

conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The

final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance

and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part

B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010

2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol

18 Iss 2 pp 157-172

3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani

(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52

Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017

4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing

model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol

52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313

13 | P a g e

5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend

irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash

241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638

14 | P a g e

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING

21 INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market

to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with

motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research

conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors

affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and

term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock

market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in

mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of

the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio

building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the

study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the

Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective

economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the

direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the

study

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes

2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by

investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a

vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be

invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers

themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit

trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector

2212 Stock Market

15 | P a g e

Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio

and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return

predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)

222 Unit trusts Performance

2221 Rewards

A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao

Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts

possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic

mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported

by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their

investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of

mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a

diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found

that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of

mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these

factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that

independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct

greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence

management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect

creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele

2222 Risk

Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a

manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into

concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund

managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is

because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum

16 | P a g e

strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in

search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the

CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The

same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to

poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior

to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)

2223 Author Advocacy

The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first

investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment

firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research

conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and

the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is

during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis

unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and

supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be

profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers

but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back

seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that

market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore

good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the

contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose

much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver

223 Stock market Performance

2231 Rewards

Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by

Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor

John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-

down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom

up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell

market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this

quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of

opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore

17 | P a g e

Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 6: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

62 CONCLUSIONS45

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS46

64 LIMITATIONS47

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY47

CHAPTER 748

REFLECTIONS48

REFERENCE50

APPENDICES55

Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire55

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions59

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends60

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations61

6 | P a g e

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This research represents a great portion of my undergraduate study in the Honours Degree in

Accounting and Finance with the University of Derby The process of gathering throughout to

achieving the aim has been so intense in that it demanded a great deal of time hard work focus and

attention which in turn resulted in a greater understanding in the nature of this topic

First and foremost I would like to thank Mr Munyaradzi Nyandoro as my project supervisor for

sharing his intellect with me over this investment topic with him being the lsquoChief Economistrsquo in

Botswana Accountancy College My sincerest gratitude and appreciation go to him as his support

acted as a gear towards my understanding of this research and it would have not been possible without

his assistance and unwavering support For this I would like to thank him dearly for his guidance and

patience throughout

I would also like to extend my sincere gratitudersquos for their continuous support in this research

understanding of its dynamics and thereby apprehending the footprint towards achieving my aim Dr

Gande truly has been a blessing especially through his patience by lecturing us on Independent Studies

and also Financial Reporting hence spending a great deal of time amongst such a large number of

students Again I thank you dearly along with the other BAC lectures for their contribution expressed

anyhow

Furthermore I would also like to thank Thabelo Nemaorani of the Botswana Stock Exchange for his

extended support for providing information about stocks and the general overview of Botswana

investments though he was not obliged to do so I thank him utmost The same goes for Mogi Lebetwa

of Imara Capital Securities who took time off her busy schedule to assist me where possible about

investment opportunities availed in the country and how I would incorporate that in my study This is

truly heartfelt and I am really grateful

7 | P a g e

ABSTRACT

Investment opportunities remain vast within the Botswana economy and investors seek to make wise

choices about their investments hence would require help selecting the most profitable from the

options presented to them Recent studies have showed their own view of unit trusts and the stock

market and how to benefit from them but none has touched on the long term investment especially

generally for Botswana This dissertation aims to evaluate a structure of investing both unit trusts and

into the stock market using the unique earnings capabilities of the respective asset classes Current

literature has outlined that the unit trust industry is one of the fastest growing in the finance sector and

their competitive edge lies with their diversification thereby minimising risk and creating room for

wealth creation while on the other hand the stock market bears a number of systematic risks for

different types of stock available With higher risks are an expectation of higher returns hence risk

takers would benefit vastly The researcher adopted an abductive approach for a pragmatist philosophy

so say that there are a number of ways to interpret one picture hence being open minded about

investment ventures available for inclusion in onersquos portfolio Instruments such as questionnaires were

used to collect data and analysis for which done though statistical softwarersquos archival research

analysis which was quantitative was through the assistance of Microsoft excel The data was collected

from a sample of investors whom a good number of which are of have a University degree in Finance

hence have sound knowledge on the dynamics of investing The study found that BIHL from the

sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the most profitable stock on the stock

exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which investors should venture into and are the

money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The study has also found that a number of

investors would like to invest in the future and are certain about investing their money in a company

than keeping it in a bank only a fair number of the participants seem aware of fund managers

available in the country hence this research would like to bridge the gap of lack of sufficient

information The concluding decisions emphasised henceforth was that indeed stock and unit trusts are

profitable in the short medium and long term thus the recommendation is to invest in both starting

with unit trusts then the stock market given that capital is adequate The limitation of the study though

is the assumption of adequate capital which is not always so and lack of a third party to corroborate the

prospected portfolio for Batswana investors

8 | P a g e

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1- Research methods25

Table 2-SPSS reliability test29

Table 3- Background data31

Table 4- Education level32

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32

Table 6- Questionnaire findings34

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137

Table 8- Pearson correlation 237

Table 9- Pearson correlation 337

Table 10- Pearson correlation 438

Table 11- Pearson correlation 538

Table 12- Anova regression analysis38

9 | P a g e

LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23

10 | P a g e

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

11 INTRODUCTION

This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will

follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building

profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with

the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would

henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions

The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking

answers and solutions to the questions laid forth

12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION

-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment

portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles

-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming

adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas

13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY

Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing

segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM

Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are

not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures

11 | P a g e

to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with

their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put

in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study

focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana

To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to

investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with

respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better

portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because

many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment

structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence

potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in

turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole

15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS

Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means

toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of

the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement

packages

Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the

actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a

business environment

Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial

institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested

into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)

Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are

secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)

Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on

an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)

Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public

for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)

12 | P a g e

16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY

The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the

most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which

investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The

study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain

whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund

managers available in the country

17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS

This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the

researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo

did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current

literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology

emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this

chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the

conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The

final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance

and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part

B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010

2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol

18 Iss 2 pp 157-172

3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani

(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52

Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017

4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing

model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol

52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313

13 | P a g e

5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend

irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash

241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638

14 | P a g e

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING

21 INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market

to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with

motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research

conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors

affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and

term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock

market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in

mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of

the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio

building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the

study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the

Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective

economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the

direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the

study

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes

2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by

investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a

vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be

invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers

themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit

trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector

2212 Stock Market

15 | P a g e

Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio

and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return

predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)

222 Unit trusts Performance

2221 Rewards

A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao

Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts

possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic

mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported

by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their

investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of

mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a

diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found

that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of

mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these

factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that

independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct

greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence

management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect

creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele

2222 Risk

Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a

manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into

concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund

managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is

because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum

16 | P a g e

strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in

search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the

CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The

same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to

poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior

to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)

2223 Author Advocacy

The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first

investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment

firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research

conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and

the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is

during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis

unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and

supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be

profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers

but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back

seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that

market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore

good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the

contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose

much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver

223 Stock market Performance

2231 Rewards

Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by

Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor

John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-

down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom

up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell

market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this

quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of

opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore

17 | P a g e

Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

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Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

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13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

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38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 7: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This research represents a great portion of my undergraduate study in the Honours Degree in

Accounting and Finance with the University of Derby The process of gathering throughout to

achieving the aim has been so intense in that it demanded a great deal of time hard work focus and

attention which in turn resulted in a greater understanding in the nature of this topic

First and foremost I would like to thank Mr Munyaradzi Nyandoro as my project supervisor for

sharing his intellect with me over this investment topic with him being the lsquoChief Economistrsquo in

Botswana Accountancy College My sincerest gratitude and appreciation go to him as his support

acted as a gear towards my understanding of this research and it would have not been possible without

his assistance and unwavering support For this I would like to thank him dearly for his guidance and

patience throughout

I would also like to extend my sincere gratitudersquos for their continuous support in this research

understanding of its dynamics and thereby apprehending the footprint towards achieving my aim Dr

Gande truly has been a blessing especially through his patience by lecturing us on Independent Studies

and also Financial Reporting hence spending a great deal of time amongst such a large number of

students Again I thank you dearly along with the other BAC lectures for their contribution expressed

anyhow

Furthermore I would also like to thank Thabelo Nemaorani of the Botswana Stock Exchange for his

extended support for providing information about stocks and the general overview of Botswana

investments though he was not obliged to do so I thank him utmost The same goes for Mogi Lebetwa

of Imara Capital Securities who took time off her busy schedule to assist me where possible about

investment opportunities availed in the country and how I would incorporate that in my study This is

truly heartfelt and I am really grateful

7 | P a g e

ABSTRACT

Investment opportunities remain vast within the Botswana economy and investors seek to make wise

choices about their investments hence would require help selecting the most profitable from the

options presented to them Recent studies have showed their own view of unit trusts and the stock

market and how to benefit from them but none has touched on the long term investment especially

generally for Botswana This dissertation aims to evaluate a structure of investing both unit trusts and

into the stock market using the unique earnings capabilities of the respective asset classes Current

literature has outlined that the unit trust industry is one of the fastest growing in the finance sector and

their competitive edge lies with their diversification thereby minimising risk and creating room for

wealth creation while on the other hand the stock market bears a number of systematic risks for

different types of stock available With higher risks are an expectation of higher returns hence risk

takers would benefit vastly The researcher adopted an abductive approach for a pragmatist philosophy

so say that there are a number of ways to interpret one picture hence being open minded about

investment ventures available for inclusion in onersquos portfolio Instruments such as questionnaires were

used to collect data and analysis for which done though statistical softwarersquos archival research

analysis which was quantitative was through the assistance of Microsoft excel The data was collected

from a sample of investors whom a good number of which are of have a University degree in Finance

hence have sound knowledge on the dynamics of investing The study found that BIHL from the

sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the most profitable stock on the stock

exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which investors should venture into and are the

money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The study has also found that a number of

investors would like to invest in the future and are certain about investing their money in a company

than keeping it in a bank only a fair number of the participants seem aware of fund managers

available in the country hence this research would like to bridge the gap of lack of sufficient

information The concluding decisions emphasised henceforth was that indeed stock and unit trusts are

profitable in the short medium and long term thus the recommendation is to invest in both starting

with unit trusts then the stock market given that capital is adequate The limitation of the study though

is the assumption of adequate capital which is not always so and lack of a third party to corroborate the

prospected portfolio for Batswana investors

8 | P a g e

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1- Research methods25

Table 2-SPSS reliability test29

Table 3- Background data31

Table 4- Education level32

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32

Table 6- Questionnaire findings34

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137

Table 8- Pearson correlation 237

Table 9- Pearson correlation 337

Table 10- Pearson correlation 438

Table 11- Pearson correlation 538

Table 12- Anova regression analysis38

9 | P a g e

LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23

10 | P a g e

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

11 INTRODUCTION

This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will

follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building

profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with

the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would

henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions

The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking

answers and solutions to the questions laid forth

12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION

-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment

portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles

-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming

adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas

13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY

Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing

segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM

Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are

not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures

11 | P a g e

to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with

their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put

in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study

focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana

To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to

investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with

respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better

portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because

many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment

structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence

potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in

turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole

15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS

Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means

toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of

the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement

packages

Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the

actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a

business environment

Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial

institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested

into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)

Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are

secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)

Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on

an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)

Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public

for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)

12 | P a g e

16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY

The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the

most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which

investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The

study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain

whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund

managers available in the country

17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS

This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the

researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo

did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current

literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology

emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this

chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the

conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The

final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance

and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part

B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010

2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol

18 Iss 2 pp 157-172

3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani

(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52

Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017

4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing

model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol

52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313

13 | P a g e

5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend

irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash

241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638

14 | P a g e

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING

21 INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market

to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with

motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research

conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors

affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and

term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock

market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in

mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of

the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio

building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the

study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the

Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective

economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the

direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the

study

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes

2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by

investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a

vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be

invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers

themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit

trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector

2212 Stock Market

15 | P a g e

Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio

and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return

predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)

222 Unit trusts Performance

2221 Rewards

A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao

Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts

possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic

mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported

by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their

investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of

mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a

diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found

that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of

mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these

factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that

independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct

greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence

management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect

creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele

2222 Risk

Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a

manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into

concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund

managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is

because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum

16 | P a g e

strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in

search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the

CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The

same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to

poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior

to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)

2223 Author Advocacy

The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first

investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment

firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research

conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and

the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is

during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis

unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and

supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be

profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers

but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back

seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that

market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore

good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the

contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose

much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver

223 Stock market Performance

2231 Rewards

Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by

Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor

John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-

down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom

up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell

market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this

quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of

opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore

17 | P a g e

Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 8: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

ABSTRACT

Investment opportunities remain vast within the Botswana economy and investors seek to make wise

choices about their investments hence would require help selecting the most profitable from the

options presented to them Recent studies have showed their own view of unit trusts and the stock

market and how to benefit from them but none has touched on the long term investment especially

generally for Botswana This dissertation aims to evaluate a structure of investing both unit trusts and

into the stock market using the unique earnings capabilities of the respective asset classes Current

literature has outlined that the unit trust industry is one of the fastest growing in the finance sector and

their competitive edge lies with their diversification thereby minimising risk and creating room for

wealth creation while on the other hand the stock market bears a number of systematic risks for

different types of stock available With higher risks are an expectation of higher returns hence risk

takers would benefit vastly The researcher adopted an abductive approach for a pragmatist philosophy

so say that there are a number of ways to interpret one picture hence being open minded about

investment ventures available for inclusion in onersquos portfolio Instruments such as questionnaires were

used to collect data and analysis for which done though statistical softwarersquos archival research

analysis which was quantitative was through the assistance of Microsoft excel The data was collected

from a sample of investors whom a good number of which are of have a University degree in Finance

hence have sound knowledge on the dynamics of investing The study found that BIHL from the

sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the most profitable stock on the stock

exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which investors should venture into and are the

money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The study has also found that a number of

investors would like to invest in the future and are certain about investing their money in a company

than keeping it in a bank only a fair number of the participants seem aware of fund managers

available in the country hence this research would like to bridge the gap of lack of sufficient

information The concluding decisions emphasised henceforth was that indeed stock and unit trusts are

profitable in the short medium and long term thus the recommendation is to invest in both starting

with unit trusts then the stock market given that capital is adequate The limitation of the study though

is the assumption of adequate capital which is not always so and lack of a third party to corroborate the

prospected portfolio for Batswana investors

8 | P a g e

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1- Research methods25

Table 2-SPSS reliability test29

Table 3- Background data31

Table 4- Education level32

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32

Table 6- Questionnaire findings34

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137

Table 8- Pearson correlation 237

Table 9- Pearson correlation 337

Table 10- Pearson correlation 438

Table 11- Pearson correlation 538

Table 12- Anova regression analysis38

9 | P a g e

LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23

10 | P a g e

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

11 INTRODUCTION

This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will

follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building

profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with

the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would

henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions

The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking

answers and solutions to the questions laid forth

12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION

-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment

portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles

-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming

adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas

13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY

Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing

segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM

Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are

not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures

11 | P a g e

to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with

their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put

in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study

focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana

To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to

investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with

respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better

portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because

many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment

structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence

potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in

turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole

15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS

Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means

toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of

the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement

packages

Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the

actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a

business environment

Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial

institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested

into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)

Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are

secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)

Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on

an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)

Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public

for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)

12 | P a g e

16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY

The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the

most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which

investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The

study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain

whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund

managers available in the country

17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS

This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the

researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo

did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current

literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology

emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this

chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the

conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The

final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance

and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part

B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010

2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol

18 Iss 2 pp 157-172

3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani

(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52

Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017

4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing

model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol

52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313

13 | P a g e

5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend

irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash

241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638

14 | P a g e

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING

21 INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market

to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with

motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research

conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors

affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and

term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock

market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in

mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of

the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio

building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the

study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the

Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective

economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the

direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the

study

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes

2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by

investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a

vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be

invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers

themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit

trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector

2212 Stock Market

15 | P a g e

Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio

and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return

predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)

222 Unit trusts Performance

2221 Rewards

A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao

Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts

possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic

mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported

by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their

investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of

mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a

diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found

that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of

mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these

factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that

independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct

greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence

management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect

creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele

2222 Risk

Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a

manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into

concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund

managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is

because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum

16 | P a g e

strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in

search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the

CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The

same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to

poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior

to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)

2223 Author Advocacy

The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first

investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment

firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research

conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and

the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is

during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis

unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and

supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be

profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers

but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back

seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that

market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore

good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the

contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose

much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver

223 Stock market Performance

2231 Rewards

Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by

Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor

John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-

down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom

up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell

market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this

quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of

opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore

17 | P a g e

Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 9: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1- Research methods25

Table 2-SPSS reliability test29

Table 3- Background data31

Table 4- Education level32

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32

Table 6- Questionnaire findings34

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137

Table 8- Pearson correlation 237

Table 9- Pearson correlation 337

Table 10- Pearson correlation 438

Table 11- Pearson correlation 538

Table 12- Anova regression analysis38

9 | P a g e

LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23

10 | P a g e

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

11 INTRODUCTION

This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will

follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building

profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with

the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would

henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions

The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking

answers and solutions to the questions laid forth

12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION

-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment

portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles

-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming

adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas

13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY

Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing

segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM

Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are

not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures

11 | P a g e

to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with

their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put

in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study

focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana

To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to

investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with

respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better

portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because

many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment

structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence

potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in

turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole

15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS

Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means

toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of

the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement

packages

Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the

actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a

business environment

Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial

institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested

into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)

Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are

secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)

Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on

an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)

Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public

for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)

12 | P a g e

16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY

The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the

most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which

investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The

study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain

whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund

managers available in the country

17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS

This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the

researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo

did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current

literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology

emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this

chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the

conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The

final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance

and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part

B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010

2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol

18 Iss 2 pp 157-172

3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani

(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52

Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017

4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing

model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol

52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313

13 | P a g e

5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend

irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash

241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638

14 | P a g e

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING

21 INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market

to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with

motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research

conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors

affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and

term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock

market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in

mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of

the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio

building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the

study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the

Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective

economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the

direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the

study

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes

2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by

investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a

vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be

invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers

themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit

trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector

2212 Stock Market

15 | P a g e

Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio

and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return

predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)

222 Unit trusts Performance

2221 Rewards

A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao

Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts

possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic

mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported

by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their

investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of

mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a

diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found

that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of

mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these

factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that

independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct

greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence

management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect

creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele

2222 Risk

Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a

manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into

concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund

managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is

because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum

16 | P a g e

strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in

search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the

CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The

same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to

poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior

to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)

2223 Author Advocacy

The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first

investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment

firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research

conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and

the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is

during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis

unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and

supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be

profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers

but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back

seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that

market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore

good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the

contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose

much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver

223 Stock market Performance

2231 Rewards

Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by

Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor

John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-

down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom

up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell

market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this

quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of

opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore

17 | P a g e

Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 10: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23

10 | P a g e

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

11 INTRODUCTION

This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will

follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building

profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with

the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would

henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions

The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking

answers and solutions to the questions laid forth

12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION

-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment

portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles

-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming

adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas

13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY

Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing

segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM

Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are

not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures

11 | P a g e

to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with

their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put

in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study

focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana

To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to

investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with

respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better

portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because

many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment

structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence

potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in

turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole

15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS

Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means

toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of

the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement

packages

Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the

actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a

business environment

Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial

institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested

into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)

Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are

secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)

Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on

an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)

Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public

for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)

12 | P a g e

16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY

The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the

most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which

investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The

study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain

whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund

managers available in the country

17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS

This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the

researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo

did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current

literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology

emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this

chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the

conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The

final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance

and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part

B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010

2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol

18 Iss 2 pp 157-172

3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani

(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52

Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017

4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing

model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol

52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313

13 | P a g e

5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend

irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash

241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638

14 | P a g e

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING

21 INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market

to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with

motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research

conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors

affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and

term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock

market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in

mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of

the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio

building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the

study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the

Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective

economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the

direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the

study

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes

2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by

investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a

vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be

invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers

themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit

trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector

2212 Stock Market

15 | P a g e

Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio

and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return

predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)

222 Unit trusts Performance

2221 Rewards

A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao

Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts

possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic

mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported

by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their

investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of

mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a

diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found

that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of

mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these

factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that

independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct

greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence

management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect

creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele

2222 Risk

Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a

manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into

concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund

managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is

because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum

16 | P a g e

strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in

search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the

CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The

same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to

poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior

to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)

2223 Author Advocacy

The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first

investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment

firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research

conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and

the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is

during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis

unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and

supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be

profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers

but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back

seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that

market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore

good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the

contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose

much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver

223 Stock market Performance

2231 Rewards

Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by

Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor

John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-

down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom

up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell

market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this

quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of

opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore

17 | P a g e

Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 11: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

11 INTRODUCTION

This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will

follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building

profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with

the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would

henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions

The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking

answers and solutions to the questions laid forth

12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION

-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment

portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles

-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming

adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas

13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY

Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing

segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM

Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are

not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures

11 | P a g e

to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with

their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put

in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study

focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana

To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to

investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with

respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better

portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because

many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment

structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence

potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in

turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole

15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS

Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means

toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of

the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement

packages

Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the

actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a

business environment

Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial

institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested

into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)

Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are

secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)

Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on

an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)

Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public

for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)

12 | P a g e

16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY

The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the

most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which

investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The

study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain

whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund

managers available in the country

17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS

This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the

researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo

did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current

literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology

emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this

chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the

conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The

final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance

and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part

B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010

2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol

18 Iss 2 pp 157-172

3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani

(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52

Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017

4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing

model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol

52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313

13 | P a g e

5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend

irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash

241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638

14 | P a g e

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING

21 INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market

to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with

motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research

conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors

affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and

term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock

market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in

mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of

the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio

building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the

study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the

Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective

economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the

direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the

study

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes

2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by

investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a

vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be

invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers

themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit

trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector

2212 Stock Market

15 | P a g e

Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio

and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return

predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)

222 Unit trusts Performance

2221 Rewards

A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao

Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts

possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic

mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported

by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their

investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of

mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a

diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found

that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of

mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these

factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that

independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct

greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence

management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect

creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele

2222 Risk

Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a

manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into

concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund

managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is

because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum

16 | P a g e

strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in

search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the

CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The

same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to

poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior

to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)

2223 Author Advocacy

The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first

investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment

firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research

conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and

the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is

during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis

unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and

supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be

profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers

but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back

seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that

market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore

good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the

contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose

much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver

223 Stock market Performance

2231 Rewards

Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by

Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor

John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-

down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom

up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell

market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this

quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of

opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore

17 | P a g e

Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 12: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with

their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put

in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study

focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana

To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to

investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with

respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better

portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because

many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment

structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence

potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in

turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole

15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS

Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means

toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of

the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement

packages

Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the

actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a

business environment

Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial

institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested

into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)

Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are

secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)

Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on

an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)

Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public

for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)

12 | P a g e

16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY

The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the

most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which

investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The

study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain

whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund

managers available in the country

17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS

This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the

researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo

did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current

literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology

emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this

chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the

conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The

final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance

and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part

B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010

2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol

18 Iss 2 pp 157-172

3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani

(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52

Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017

4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing

model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol

52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313

13 | P a g e

5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend

irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash

241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638

14 | P a g e

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING

21 INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market

to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with

motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research

conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors

affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and

term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock

market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in

mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of

the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio

building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the

study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the

Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective

economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the

direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the

study

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes

2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by

investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a

vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be

invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers

themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit

trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector

2212 Stock Market

15 | P a g e

Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio

and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return

predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)

222 Unit trusts Performance

2221 Rewards

A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao

Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts

possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic

mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported

by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their

investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of

mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a

diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found

that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of

mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these

factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that

independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct

greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence

management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect

creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele

2222 Risk

Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a

manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into

concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund

managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is

because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum

16 | P a g e

strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in

search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the

CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The

same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to

poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior

to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)

2223 Author Advocacy

The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first

investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment

firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research

conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and

the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is

during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis

unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and

supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be

profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers

but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back

seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that

market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore

good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the

contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose

much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver

223 Stock market Performance

2231 Rewards

Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by

Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor

John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-

down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom

up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell

market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this

quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of

opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore

17 | P a g e

Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 13: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY

The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the

most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which

investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The

study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain

whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund

managers available in the country

17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS

This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the

researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo

did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current

literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology

emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this

chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the

conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The

final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance

and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part

B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010

2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol

18 Iss 2 pp 157-172

3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani

(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52

Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017

4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing

model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol

52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313

13 | P a g e

5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend

irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash

241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638

14 | P a g e

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING

21 INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market

to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with

motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research

conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors

affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and

term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock

market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in

mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of

the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio

building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the

study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the

Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective

economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the

direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the

study

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes

2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by

investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a

vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be

invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers

themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit

trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector

2212 Stock Market

15 | P a g e

Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio

and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return

predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)

222 Unit trusts Performance

2221 Rewards

A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao

Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts

possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic

mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported

by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their

investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of

mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a

diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found

that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of

mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these

factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that

independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct

greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence

management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect

creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele

2222 Risk

Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a

manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into

concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund

managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is

because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum

16 | P a g e

strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in

search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the

CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The

same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to

poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior

to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)

2223 Author Advocacy

The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first

investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment

firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research

conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and

the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is

during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis

unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and

supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be

profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers

but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back

seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that

market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore

good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the

contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose

much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver

223 Stock market Performance

2231 Rewards

Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by

Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor

John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-

down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom

up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell

market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this

quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of

opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore

17 | P a g e

Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 14: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend

irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash

241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638

14 | P a g e

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING

21 INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market

to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with

motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research

conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors

affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and

term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock

market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in

mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of

the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio

building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the

study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the

Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective

economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the

direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the

study

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes

2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by

investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a

vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be

invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers

themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit

trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector

2212 Stock Market

15 | P a g e

Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio

and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return

predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)

222 Unit trusts Performance

2221 Rewards

A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao

Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts

possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic

mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported

by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their

investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of

mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a

diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found

that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of

mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these

factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that

independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct

greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence

management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect

creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele

2222 Risk

Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a

manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into

concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund

managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is

because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum

16 | P a g e

strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in

search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the

CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The

same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to

poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior

to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)

2223 Author Advocacy

The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first

investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment

firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research

conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and

the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is

during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis

unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and

supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be

profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers

but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back

seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that

market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore

good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the

contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose

much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver

223 Stock market Performance

2231 Rewards

Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by

Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor

John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-

down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom

up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell

market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this

quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of

opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore

17 | P a g e

Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

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Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

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8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

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13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

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26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

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38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 15: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING

21 INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market

to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with

motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research

conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors

affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and

term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock

market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in

mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of

the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio

building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the

study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the

Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective

economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the

direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the

study

22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes

2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by

investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a

vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be

invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers

themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit

trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector

2212 Stock Market

15 | P a g e

Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio

and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return

predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)

222 Unit trusts Performance

2221 Rewards

A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao

Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts

possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic

mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported

by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their

investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of

mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a

diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found

that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of

mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these

factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that

independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct

greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence

management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect

creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele

2222 Risk

Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a

manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into

concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund

managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is

because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum

16 | P a g e

strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in

search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the

CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The

same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to

poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior

to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)

2223 Author Advocacy

The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first

investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment

firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research

conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and

the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is

during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis

unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and

supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be

profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers

but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back

seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that

market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore

good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the

contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose

much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver

223 Stock market Performance

2231 Rewards

Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by

Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor

John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-

down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom

up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell

market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this

quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of

opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore

17 | P a g e

Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 16: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows

The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio

and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach

Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return

predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)

222 Unit trusts Performance

2221 Rewards

A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao

Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts

possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic

mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported

by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their

investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of

mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a

diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found

that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of

mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these

factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that

independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct

greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence

management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect

creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele

2222 Risk

Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a

manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into

concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund

managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is

because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum

16 | P a g e

strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in

search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the

CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The

same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to

poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior

to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)

2223 Author Advocacy

The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first

investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment

firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research

conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and

the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is

during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis

unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and

supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be

profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers

but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back

seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that

market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore

good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the

contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose

much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver

223 Stock market Performance

2231 Rewards

Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by

Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor

John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-

down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom

up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell

market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this

quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of

opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore

17 | P a g e

Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 17: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in

search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the

CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The

same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to

poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior

to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)

2223 Author Advocacy

The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first

investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment

firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research

conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and

the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is

during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis

unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and

supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be

profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers

but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back

seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that

market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore

good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the

contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose

much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver

223 Stock market Performance

2231 Rewards

Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by

Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor

John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-

down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom

up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell

market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this

quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of

opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore

17 | P a g e

Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 18: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across

economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has

been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic

instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in

the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies

having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on

the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become

higher and thus inducing aggregate investment

2232 Risk

In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases

returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its

fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which

returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its

peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally

thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized

2233 Author Advocacy

The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available

on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far

shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building

but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo

(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment

performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which

is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as

compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP

23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories

2311 Theory of International Diversification

A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of

crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors

(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low

correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute

18 | P a g e

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 19: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a

reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across

markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work

best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial

information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their

own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted

in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has

found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany

United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)

Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha

and Masih 2015)

2312 Equity Return Predictability

Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that

excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield

earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of

their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and

important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though

this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability

it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson

(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio

constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from

the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio

and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is

associated with future returns and dividend growth

232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial

markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund

managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest

overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though

not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable

active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market

hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus

19 | P a g e

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 20: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)

Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because

selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively

managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always

appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they

aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for

wealth creation

233 Portfolio Building

Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the

Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those

current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in

turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers

usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained

earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does

appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or

securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)

A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit

trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this

though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the

market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis

period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be

profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus

inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable

portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between

stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)

The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a

portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by

individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of

their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique

of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in

length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by

having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for

20 | P a g e

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 21: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align

with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising

this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices

fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned

by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought

for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund

managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson

and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies

venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications

Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital

appreciation is handed on a silver platter

Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an

independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical

through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that

investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be

placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised

by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due

to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would

therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the

portfolio and professional judgement

24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to

looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)

and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to

chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best

to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the

diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as

property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock

market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are

presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital

21 | P a g e

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 22: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well

commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the

emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future

prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they

understand the dynamics of where their money is being run

25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT

EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW

Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would

prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note

though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in

the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression

by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there

is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to

manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has

identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of

portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term

and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to

the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended

more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at

times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment

structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip

Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in

developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the

slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and

Abraha 2015)

26 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not

be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money

to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became

fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two

22 | P a g e

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 23: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term

investment

CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

31 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting

the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and

Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers

for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence

achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of

research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling

criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will

ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through

the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that

provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of

information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though

quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter

would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well

as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim

23 | P a g e

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 24: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)

32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY

The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that

there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there

is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by

Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a

reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests

and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for

the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation

Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the

objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of

subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts

constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves

to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions

33 RESEARCH APPROACH

The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose

the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one

where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the

concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive

approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories

24 | P a g e

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 25: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see

effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative

and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this

being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive

approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk

attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view

34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY

The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see

fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the

highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open

minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment

portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the

two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through

descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the

examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio

would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)

35 THE RESEARCH METHODS

Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number

of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)

Table 1- Research methods

Objective

Participants (sample)

Data Collection Method

Reason for choice of method

What is to be measured

Population Size

Sample Size

Sample Criteria

Data CollectionDate

1

Botswana Stock

Exchange listed

companies

Archival research

Participants can

add more information in a

quantitative form

of answers

Return on

investments and

earnings per share

Listed compani

es amp Fund

Managers

6

Stratified and

convenient

19-01-2016

25 | P a g e

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

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Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 26: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

2

Investors through stock

brokers

Open and closed

Questionnaire

Participants can

add more information in a

descriptive form

of answers

Risk tolerance

levels and

attitudes

Investors stock brokers

30 Stratified 30-01-2016

3

Botswana stock

exchange and fund managers

Semi-structured interview

Helps the researche

r to receive an open

wide range of response

s

An ideal model for

the investme

nt structure

mix

Regulatory body and fund manager

s

2Convenient and

stratified

21-01-2016

351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)

Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole

population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their

earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and

are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana

Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have

availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist

construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be

used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be

chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4

respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past

performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population

during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed

within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors

making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment

portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the

sample from another independent firm

26 | P a g e

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

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Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

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13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

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38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 27: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the

study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and

skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios

(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be

used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics

thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for

selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings

performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on

information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and

comprehend on the objectives of the study

352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)

Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a

research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis

and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for

which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective

of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a

set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and

then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives

(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)

Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and

influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but

being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective

meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be

used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies

and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with

the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session

Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of

the two asset classes

353 Data collection procedure

Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the

investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired

through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company

27 | P a g e

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

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Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 28: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2

participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on

investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that

analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to

what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would

work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative

analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with

those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking

354 Data analysis procedure

Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of

descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of

central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance

analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software

would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would

then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset

classes individually and respectively

Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data

such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to

be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes

Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups

of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between

variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration

of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for

judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)

Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with

the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best

through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to

interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and

then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used

for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming

and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if

for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your

28 | P a g e

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

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Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

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13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

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26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

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38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 29: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea

behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix

investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits

355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to

ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)

The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be

used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to

test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos

Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows

Table 2-SPSS reliability test

Case Processing Summary

N Cases Valid 20 1000

0 00Total 20 1000

Reliability Statistics

Cronbachs Alpha N of Items

724 25

Excludeda

The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very

good

To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are

governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial

results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human

productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt

information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes

essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic

role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos

are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would

come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole

research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives

29 | P a g e

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 30: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a

locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in

such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent

aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully

emphasised in appendix 4

37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the

availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have

added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study

Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation

reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of

BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not

able to come around to responding to the questionnaire

One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of

an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended

questionnaire was deemed more appropriate

With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year

period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as

at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their

analysis would be on a proviso basis

38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)

The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from

the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in

our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with

investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few

number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange

The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS

ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are

concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors

30 | P a g e

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 31: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

39 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in

collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the

data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner

31 | P a g e

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 32: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

CHAPTER 4

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

41 INTRODUCTION

This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered

externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes

of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the

analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively

42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market

2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes

3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes

4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock

market

43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED

The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of

both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study

so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter

would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended

by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions

44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS

Table 3- Background data

Statistics

How old are

you

Which level of

educations have

you attained

NValid 29 29

Missing 0 0

Mode 2000 500

Minimum 1800 100

Maximum 4900 600

32 | P a g e

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 33: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age

of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18

Table 4- Education level

Which level of educations have you attained

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310

Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345

Other academic training 14 483 483 828

Other please specify 5 172 172 1000

Total 29 1000 1000

Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic

training followed by those with a University degree in finance

45 MAJOR FINDINGS

451 Objective 1

4511 ndash Stock market Performance

Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only

accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that

the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be

attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments

(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate

to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well

desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average

comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The

33 | P a g e

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 34: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in

interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now

being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to

such poor performance (FNBB 2015)

Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a

number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market

hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to

this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of

3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable

comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required

return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well

3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance

a Money Market Portfolio

The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that

investor can call on their monies as and when they require them

The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m

with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015

hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with

inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market

instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices

fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come

about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts

BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so

as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution

streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its

benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which

can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term

investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have

occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the

domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund

b Balanced Prudential fund

This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for

the purposes of the medium to long term investment

34 | P a g e

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 35: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior

quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed

the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the

devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a

collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the

downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest

from fixed securities

On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in

local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong

world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies

like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in

the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further

for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively

452 Objective 2

The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as

aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table

Table 6- Questionnaire findings

Descriptive Statistics

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation

How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255

How often do you encounter

problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512

Would you like to invest in a

company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788

Would you rather opt to

invest in a company than

keep your money in a bank

account

29 100 500 40345 145118

How often do you review

published company results29 100 500 35172 121363

Do you know of Fund

managers available in

Botswana

29 100 500 35172 140460

35 | P a g e

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 36: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

Have you invested in Unit

trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282

Would you like constant

information about your

investment

29 300 500 47931 49130

Are foreign investments

financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001

Would you prefer an agent

to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933

An above-average rise in

market price accompanied

by an increase in turnover

29 200 500 38621 95335

A market price that has

stabilised at a level

significantly lower than its

all-time high

29 100 500 34138 121059

Growing expectations

concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470

The raising of corporate

earnings estimates by

analysts

29 200 500 40345 90565

Observed purchases by

other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279

Corporate announcements

and statements that are

perceived as being positive

29 100 500 39655 108505

A low valuation on a cross-

market or cross-sector

comparison based on profit

expectations for the coming

financial years

29 100 500 31724 125553

Technical analysis of price

trends price formation and

turnover trends

29 200 500 43103 96745

Fundamental analysis based

on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641

A portfolio optimisation

approach based on

estimated yields and

covariancersquos

29 100 500 37241 122172

Trading costs such as bid-

offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512

Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223

36 | P a g e

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 37: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

Frequent reports and

availability of independent

analystsrsquo estimates

29 100 500 41724 96618

Previous corporate

development as well as

performance on stock

market

29 300 500 45862 62776

Availability of tradable

derivatives for transactions

or as a source of additional

information

29 100 500 34828 112188

Valid N (listwise) 29

The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent

Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well

In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45

37 | P a g e

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 38: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1

Have you invested in Unit trusts before

How often do you invest

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

500

006

Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before

Table 8- Pearson correlation 2

Which level of educations have you attained

Observed purchases by other institutional investors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-557

002

Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock

Table 9- Pearson correlation 3

Market capitalisation

How old are you Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

-483

008

Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock

38 | P a g e

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 39: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

Table 10- Pearson correlation 4

How often do you review published company results

Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

498

006

Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results

Table 11- Pearson correlation 5

A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Pearson Correlation

Sig (2-tailed)

542

002

Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio

Table 12- Anova regression analysis

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig

1

Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b

Residual 35257 27 1306

Total 36690 28

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig

B Std Error Beta

1

(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000

Would you prefer an agent to

manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304

a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends

39 | P a g e

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 40: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is

Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)

The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this

instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock

differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates

that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients

and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized

coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not

important for this data

453 Objective 3

The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In

an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage

their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The

former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio

given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk

appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which

returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who

would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment

ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined

the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past

recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an

individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When

looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company

performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light

of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for

investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and

Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example

how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the

company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to

which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further

emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL

40 | P a g e

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 41: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window

of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term

46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is

stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together

A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing

while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their

respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very

much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would

like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts

before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful

benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author

aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent

decisions about the type of investments they would prefer

The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives

they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns

as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can

be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well

Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant

correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it

was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a

correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of

market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an

individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of

observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to

have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the

greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional

investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information

asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more

about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if

otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage

ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is

41 | P a g e

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 42: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves

it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed

down to anybody on a silver platter

47 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio

or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings

capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the

implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is

explained thoroughly in the next chapter

42 | P a g e

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 43: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

51 INTRODUCTION

The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being

unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings

from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in

the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings

extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be

conducted upon

52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS

The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new

knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and

extension of knowledge in the field

521 Reinforcing what is already known

5211 Objective 1

A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when

investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them

since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has

attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the

performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by

conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making

them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign

investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to

outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)

5212 Objective 2

The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a

rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby

43 | P a g e

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 44: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the

performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the

ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects

and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market

5213 Objective 3

With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the

performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having

to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly

emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities

of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies

with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any

market

522 What is new and different in the findings

The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent

managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were

only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance

of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market

fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by

investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The

competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating

enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was

attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the

portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which

ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as

it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A

consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term

hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future

On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange

since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it

seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and

hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually

growing

44 | P a g e

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 45: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

523 How the results extend knowledge in the field

Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being

dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As

highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to

which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be

corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as

outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their

respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand

that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of

opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is

that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this

can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their

bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as

those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further

emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of

their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard

Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at

a minimum

53 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on

the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund

managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The

competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the

stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of

stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to

encourage investment at national levels

45 | P a g e

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 46: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

61 INTRODUCTION

The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock

market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be

addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature

on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised

62 CONCLUSIONS

One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used

to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their

money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403

are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it

best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite

and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire

The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and

the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage

their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per

indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit

trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that

the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing

opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of

which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis

carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short

term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater

risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on

the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The

examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock

Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and

46 | P a g e

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 47: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)

On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the

first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest

would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech

(2011) that you sell in a declining market

The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The

methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist

philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of

their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that

investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which

investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is

availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return

The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the

two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate

the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it

exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a

balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a

money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be

invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and

new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term

and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and

Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the

research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term

investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is

brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the

research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset

classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already

aforementioned

63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS

The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner

manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an

opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by

47 | P a g e

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 48: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on

the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to

IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents

itself

64 LIMITATIONS

The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The

first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the

use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio

recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for

use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a

public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we

may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more

of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios

and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would

be if we used a certain ratio or so forth

A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to

corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to

what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence

the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and

corroborating it to the findings themselves

Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds

and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds

are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess

65 CHAPTER SUMMARY

The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the

first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology

conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the

analysis of the data collected

48 | P a g e

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 49: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

CHAPTER 7

REFLECTIONS

The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came

about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and

current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting

into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and

ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The

purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of

the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even

done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)

The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the

importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past

semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to

understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data

collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a

festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the

dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people

down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant

failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long

did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants

and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter

commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical

approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during

the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the

investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from

participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board

to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses

and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters

that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached

49 | P a g e

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 50: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests

and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number

of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment

but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the

missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the

research

This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with

post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that

initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher

so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment

portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse

50 | P a g e

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 51: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

REFERENCE

1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of

Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X

2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and

case studies GRIN Verlag

3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at

httpwwwmoneycom

4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end

20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)

5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of

Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029

origin=JSTOR-pdf

6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial

Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809

7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The

European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at

http1010801351847X2013788533

8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in

Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)

9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol

52 pp 57ndash82

10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative

Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available

at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186

11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The

Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)

12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research

Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002

51 | P a g e

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 52: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as

predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960

14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal

of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192

httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092

15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities

investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-

10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885

16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive

Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88

17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking

a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd

18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using

Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol

48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616

19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed

London The McGrwa Hills

20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of

Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at

httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304

21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal

22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future

Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo

Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44

Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028

23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds

a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3

pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337

24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56

25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at

httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf

52 | P a g e

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 53: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts

Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453

27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3

pp 95 ndash 165

28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business

students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited

29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at

httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed

4-04-2016)

30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American

neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259

31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London

Blackwell Publishing

32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium

prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508

33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market

inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56

34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed

91115 Available at

httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN

Botswana_GB_2015pdf

35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal

Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2

36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering

market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at

httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743

37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting

the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available

through httpwwwcfapubsorg

53 | P a g e

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 54: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and

Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp

127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x

39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press

40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research

from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons

41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions

Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863

42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in

the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash

60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058

43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-

Hill Sydney

44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of

Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454

45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect

Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation

Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at

httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531

46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service

University of Bradford School of Management [Online]

47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research

methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977

48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment

Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of

Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042

49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South

African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116

50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of

Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p

54 | P a g e

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 55: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed

Pearson

52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in

Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at

httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487

53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance

Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256

54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol

33 Iss 2 pp 102-121

55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo

Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54

56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial

Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited

57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross

University Lismore NSW

58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International

Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available

at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X

59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South

African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11

60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage

55 | P a g e

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 56: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____

Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data

1 How old are you _____years

2 Which level of educations have you attained

University degree in Finance

MBA or management studies

Diploma in Business Studies

Vocational training

High School Certificate

Other please

specify

3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in

(Tick all that apply)

Retail

Architecture construction

Banking

Automotive

DesignFurniture

Health medical

Property

Scientific research

Security

Telecommunications

Tourism travel

56 | P a g e

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 57: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

Other please

specify

Botswana Investments

5 4 3 2 1

Rationale Very

much

Some

what

Neutral Not

really

Not at

all

How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio

57 | P a g e

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 58: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

Evaluation methods

1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of

stocks in the portfolio that you manage

Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in

5 4 3 2 1

Strength of the buy signal Almostalways

Sometimes Every once in a

while

Rarely Never

An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years

2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos

58 | P a g e

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 59: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment

decisions

Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays

5 4 3 2 1

Practical relevance Very much

Some what

Neutral Not really

Not at all

Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates

Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information

59 | P a g e

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 60: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions

Interview Questions

1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be

2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company

5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies

6 What is your investment philosophy

7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies

8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no

comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap

9 What makes a stock a good investment

10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why

Are there any conditions

11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock

would it be and why

12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so

13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best

14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up

15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision

60 | P a g e

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 61: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends

A First National Bank Botswana

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325

B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218

C Sefalana PLC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539

D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588

Analysis

Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533

standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102

maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778

61 | P a g e

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 62: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations

Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study

Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants

a Consent

The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the

research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent

letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is

required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are

attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher

b Deception

A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for

this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive

c Debriefing

Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they

cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the

portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably

adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants

so they remain informed

d Withdrawal from the investigation

Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well

informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any

information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them

e Confidentiality

Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any

third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be

disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment

purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as

for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive

data

f Protection of participants

62 | P a g e

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Page 63: INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016

Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of

utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of

psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their

professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee

g Observation research [complete if applicable]

There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable

h Giving advice

The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned

anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion

if need be

i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]

The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality

j Data protection

All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research

as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third

parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect

data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies

relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such

that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment

Purposes

k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable

l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]

The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable

63 | P a g e

  • DECLARATION
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  • ABSTRACT
  • LIST OF TABLES
  • LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
  • CHAPTER 1
  • INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
    • 11 INTRODUCTION
    • 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
    • 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
    • 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
    • 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
    • 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
    • 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
    • BIBLIOGRAPHY
      • CHAPTER 2
      • LITERATURE REVIEW
        • 21 INTRODUCTION
        • 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
          • 221 Classification of the two asset classes
          • 222 Unit trusts Performance
          • 223 Stock market Performance
            • 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
              • 231 Investment Theories
              • 232 Investor Perceptions
              • 233 Portfolio Building
                • 24 CONCLUSION
                • 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
                • 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                  • CHAPTER 3
                  • RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
                    • 31 INTRODUCTION
                    • 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
                    • 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
                    • 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
                    • 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
                      • 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
                      • 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
                      • 353 Data collection procedure
                      • 354 Data analysis procedure
                      • 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
                        • 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
                        • 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
                        • 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
                        • 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                          • CHAPTER 4
                          • DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
                            • 41 INTRODUCTION
                            • 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
                            • 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
                            • 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
                            • 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
                              • 451 Objective 1
                              • 452 Objective 2
                              • 453 Objective 3
                                • 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
                                • 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                  • CHAPTER 5
                                  • DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                    • 51 INTRODUCTION
                                    • 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
                                      • 521 Reinforcing what is already known
                                      • 522 What is new and different in the findings
                                      • 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
                                        • 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                          • CHAPTER 6
                                          • CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
                                            • 61 INTRODUCTION
                                            • 62 CONCLUSIONS
                                            • 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
                                            • 64 LIMITATIONS
                                            • 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
                                              • CHAPTER 7
                                              • REFLECTIONS
                                              • REFERENCE
                                              • APPENDICES
                                                • Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
                                                • Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
                                                • Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
                                                • Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations