INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016
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Transcript of INDEPENDENT STUDIES (Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse) 2016
BA (Hons) Accounting and Finance
A PROPOSED OUTLINE OFTHE DISSERTATION
- PRELIMINARY PAGES AND CHAPTERS
Word count 12 317
Title page
AN INVESTIGATION INTO INVESTING IN UNIT TRUSTS AS OPPOSED TO
STOCK MARKET IN BUILDING PROFITABLE PORTFOLIOS
RESEARCH DISSERTATION
By
CHILO TUMO KETLHOAFETSESTUDENT NUMBER 100326620
Submitted as partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree
Bachelor of Arts (Honours)(Accounting and Finance)
UNIVERSITY OF DERBY
May 2016
DECLARATION
2 | P a g e
I Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse hereby declare that this independent study is my own original work and
that no part of it has been plagiarised Where ideas from other authors in any form (eg ideas figures
texts and tables) are used they are acknowledged and referenced in accordance with the Harvard
referencing system
_____________________________
Signature 5 May 2016
Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse
Table of Contents
DECLARATION3
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS7
3 | P a g e
ABSTRACT8
LIST OF TABLES9
LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS10
CHAPTER 111
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND11
11 INTRODUCTION11
12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION11
13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY11
14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY11
15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS12
16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY13
17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS13
BIBLIOGRAPHY13
CHAPTER 215
LITERATURE REVIEW15
21 INTRODUCTION15
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES15
221 Classification of the two asset classes15
222 Unit trusts Performance16
223 Stock market Performance17
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING18
231 Investment Theories18
232 Investor Perceptions19
233 Portfolio Building20
24 CONCLUSION21
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW22
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY22
CHAPTER 323
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY23
31 INTRODUCTION23
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY24
33 RESEARCH APPROACH24
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY24
4 | P a g e
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS25
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)26
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)27
353 Data collection procedure27
354 Data analysis procedure28
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)28
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS29
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY30
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)30
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY30
CHAPTER 431
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS31
41 INTRODUCTION31
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY31
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED31
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS31
45 MAJOR FINDINGS32
451 Objective 132
452 Objective 234
453 Objective 339
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS40
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY41
CHAPTER 542
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42
51 INTRODUCTION42
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42
521 Reinforcing what is already known42
522 What is new and different in the findings43
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field44
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY44
CHAPTER 645
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS45
61 INTRODUCTION45
5 | P a g e
62 CONCLUSIONS45
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS46
64 LIMITATIONS47
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY47
CHAPTER 748
REFLECTIONS48
REFERENCE50
APPENDICES55
Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire55
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions59
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends60
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations61
6 | P a g e
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research represents a great portion of my undergraduate study in the Honours Degree in
Accounting and Finance with the University of Derby The process of gathering throughout to
achieving the aim has been so intense in that it demanded a great deal of time hard work focus and
attention which in turn resulted in a greater understanding in the nature of this topic
First and foremost I would like to thank Mr Munyaradzi Nyandoro as my project supervisor for
sharing his intellect with me over this investment topic with him being the lsquoChief Economistrsquo in
Botswana Accountancy College My sincerest gratitude and appreciation go to him as his support
acted as a gear towards my understanding of this research and it would have not been possible without
his assistance and unwavering support For this I would like to thank him dearly for his guidance and
patience throughout
I would also like to extend my sincere gratitudersquos for their continuous support in this research
understanding of its dynamics and thereby apprehending the footprint towards achieving my aim Dr
Gande truly has been a blessing especially through his patience by lecturing us on Independent Studies
and also Financial Reporting hence spending a great deal of time amongst such a large number of
students Again I thank you dearly along with the other BAC lectures for their contribution expressed
anyhow
Furthermore I would also like to thank Thabelo Nemaorani of the Botswana Stock Exchange for his
extended support for providing information about stocks and the general overview of Botswana
investments though he was not obliged to do so I thank him utmost The same goes for Mogi Lebetwa
of Imara Capital Securities who took time off her busy schedule to assist me where possible about
investment opportunities availed in the country and how I would incorporate that in my study This is
truly heartfelt and I am really grateful
7 | P a g e
ABSTRACT
Investment opportunities remain vast within the Botswana economy and investors seek to make wise
choices about their investments hence would require help selecting the most profitable from the
options presented to them Recent studies have showed their own view of unit trusts and the stock
market and how to benefit from them but none has touched on the long term investment especially
generally for Botswana This dissertation aims to evaluate a structure of investing both unit trusts and
into the stock market using the unique earnings capabilities of the respective asset classes Current
literature has outlined that the unit trust industry is one of the fastest growing in the finance sector and
their competitive edge lies with their diversification thereby minimising risk and creating room for
wealth creation while on the other hand the stock market bears a number of systematic risks for
different types of stock available With higher risks are an expectation of higher returns hence risk
takers would benefit vastly The researcher adopted an abductive approach for a pragmatist philosophy
so say that there are a number of ways to interpret one picture hence being open minded about
investment ventures available for inclusion in onersquos portfolio Instruments such as questionnaires were
used to collect data and analysis for which done though statistical softwarersquos archival research
analysis which was quantitative was through the assistance of Microsoft excel The data was collected
from a sample of investors whom a good number of which are of have a University degree in Finance
hence have sound knowledge on the dynamics of investing The study found that BIHL from the
sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the most profitable stock on the stock
exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which investors should venture into and are the
money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The study has also found that a number of
investors would like to invest in the future and are certain about investing their money in a company
than keeping it in a bank only a fair number of the participants seem aware of fund managers
available in the country hence this research would like to bridge the gap of lack of sufficient
information The concluding decisions emphasised henceforth was that indeed stock and unit trusts are
profitable in the short medium and long term thus the recommendation is to invest in both starting
with unit trusts then the stock market given that capital is adequate The limitation of the study though
is the assumption of adequate capital which is not always so and lack of a third party to corroborate the
prospected portfolio for Batswana investors
8 | P a g e
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1- Research methods25
Table 2-SPSS reliability test29
Table 3- Background data31
Table 4- Education level32
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32
Table 6- Questionnaire findings34
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137
Table 8- Pearson correlation 237
Table 9- Pearson correlation 337
Table 10- Pearson correlation 438
Table 11- Pearson correlation 538
Table 12- Anova regression analysis38
9 | P a g e
LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23
10 | P a g e
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
11 INTRODUCTION
This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will
follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building
profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with
the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would
henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions
The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking
answers and solutions to the questions laid forth
12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment
portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles
-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming
adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas
13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing
segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM
Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are
not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures
11 | P a g e
to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with
their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put
in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study
focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana
To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to
investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with
respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better
portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because
many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment
structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence
potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in
turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole
15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means
toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of
the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement
packages
Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the
actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a
business environment
Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial
institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested
into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)
Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are
secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)
Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on
an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)
Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public
for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)
12 | P a g e
16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the
most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which
investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The
study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain
whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund
managers available in the country
17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the
researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo
did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current
literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology
emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this
chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the
conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The
final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance
and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part
B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010
2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol
18 Iss 2 pp 157-172
3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani
(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52
Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017
4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing
model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol
52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313
13 | P a g e
5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend
irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash
241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638
14 | P a g e
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING
21 INTRODUCTION
The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market
to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with
motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research
conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors
affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and
term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock
market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in
mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of
the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio
building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the
study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the
Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective
economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the
direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the
study
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes
2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by
investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a
vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be
invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers
themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit
trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector
2212 Stock Market
15 | P a g e
Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio
and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return
predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)
222 Unit trusts Performance
2221 Rewards
A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao
Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts
possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic
mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported
by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their
investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of
mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a
diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found
that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of
mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these
factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that
independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct
greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence
management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect
creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele
2222 Risk
Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a
manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into
concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund
managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is
because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum
16 | P a g e
strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in
search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the
CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The
same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to
poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior
to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)
2223 Author Advocacy
The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first
investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment
firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research
conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and
the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is
during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis
unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and
supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be
profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers
but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back
seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that
market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore
good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the
contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose
much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver
223 Stock market Performance
2231 Rewards
Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by
Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor
John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-
down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom
up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell
market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this
quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of
opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore
17 | P a g e
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
AN INVESTIGATION INTO INVESTING IN UNIT TRUSTS AS OPPOSED TO
STOCK MARKET IN BUILDING PROFITABLE PORTFOLIOS
RESEARCH DISSERTATION
By
CHILO TUMO KETLHOAFETSESTUDENT NUMBER 100326620
Submitted as partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree
Bachelor of Arts (Honours)(Accounting and Finance)
UNIVERSITY OF DERBY
May 2016
DECLARATION
2 | P a g e
I Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse hereby declare that this independent study is my own original work and
that no part of it has been plagiarised Where ideas from other authors in any form (eg ideas figures
texts and tables) are used they are acknowledged and referenced in accordance with the Harvard
referencing system
_____________________________
Signature 5 May 2016
Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse
Table of Contents
DECLARATION3
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS7
3 | P a g e
ABSTRACT8
LIST OF TABLES9
LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS10
CHAPTER 111
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND11
11 INTRODUCTION11
12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION11
13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY11
14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY11
15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS12
16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY13
17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS13
BIBLIOGRAPHY13
CHAPTER 215
LITERATURE REVIEW15
21 INTRODUCTION15
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES15
221 Classification of the two asset classes15
222 Unit trusts Performance16
223 Stock market Performance17
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING18
231 Investment Theories18
232 Investor Perceptions19
233 Portfolio Building20
24 CONCLUSION21
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW22
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY22
CHAPTER 323
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY23
31 INTRODUCTION23
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY24
33 RESEARCH APPROACH24
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY24
4 | P a g e
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS25
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)26
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)27
353 Data collection procedure27
354 Data analysis procedure28
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)28
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS29
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY30
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)30
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY30
CHAPTER 431
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS31
41 INTRODUCTION31
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY31
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED31
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS31
45 MAJOR FINDINGS32
451 Objective 132
452 Objective 234
453 Objective 339
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS40
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY41
CHAPTER 542
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42
51 INTRODUCTION42
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42
521 Reinforcing what is already known42
522 What is new and different in the findings43
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field44
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY44
CHAPTER 645
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS45
61 INTRODUCTION45
5 | P a g e
62 CONCLUSIONS45
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS46
64 LIMITATIONS47
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY47
CHAPTER 748
REFLECTIONS48
REFERENCE50
APPENDICES55
Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire55
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions59
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends60
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations61
6 | P a g e
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research represents a great portion of my undergraduate study in the Honours Degree in
Accounting and Finance with the University of Derby The process of gathering throughout to
achieving the aim has been so intense in that it demanded a great deal of time hard work focus and
attention which in turn resulted in a greater understanding in the nature of this topic
First and foremost I would like to thank Mr Munyaradzi Nyandoro as my project supervisor for
sharing his intellect with me over this investment topic with him being the lsquoChief Economistrsquo in
Botswana Accountancy College My sincerest gratitude and appreciation go to him as his support
acted as a gear towards my understanding of this research and it would have not been possible without
his assistance and unwavering support For this I would like to thank him dearly for his guidance and
patience throughout
I would also like to extend my sincere gratitudersquos for their continuous support in this research
understanding of its dynamics and thereby apprehending the footprint towards achieving my aim Dr
Gande truly has been a blessing especially through his patience by lecturing us on Independent Studies
and also Financial Reporting hence spending a great deal of time amongst such a large number of
students Again I thank you dearly along with the other BAC lectures for their contribution expressed
anyhow
Furthermore I would also like to thank Thabelo Nemaorani of the Botswana Stock Exchange for his
extended support for providing information about stocks and the general overview of Botswana
investments though he was not obliged to do so I thank him utmost The same goes for Mogi Lebetwa
of Imara Capital Securities who took time off her busy schedule to assist me where possible about
investment opportunities availed in the country and how I would incorporate that in my study This is
truly heartfelt and I am really grateful
7 | P a g e
ABSTRACT
Investment opportunities remain vast within the Botswana economy and investors seek to make wise
choices about their investments hence would require help selecting the most profitable from the
options presented to them Recent studies have showed their own view of unit trusts and the stock
market and how to benefit from them but none has touched on the long term investment especially
generally for Botswana This dissertation aims to evaluate a structure of investing both unit trusts and
into the stock market using the unique earnings capabilities of the respective asset classes Current
literature has outlined that the unit trust industry is one of the fastest growing in the finance sector and
their competitive edge lies with their diversification thereby minimising risk and creating room for
wealth creation while on the other hand the stock market bears a number of systematic risks for
different types of stock available With higher risks are an expectation of higher returns hence risk
takers would benefit vastly The researcher adopted an abductive approach for a pragmatist philosophy
so say that there are a number of ways to interpret one picture hence being open minded about
investment ventures available for inclusion in onersquos portfolio Instruments such as questionnaires were
used to collect data and analysis for which done though statistical softwarersquos archival research
analysis which was quantitative was through the assistance of Microsoft excel The data was collected
from a sample of investors whom a good number of which are of have a University degree in Finance
hence have sound knowledge on the dynamics of investing The study found that BIHL from the
sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the most profitable stock on the stock
exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which investors should venture into and are the
money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The study has also found that a number of
investors would like to invest in the future and are certain about investing their money in a company
than keeping it in a bank only a fair number of the participants seem aware of fund managers
available in the country hence this research would like to bridge the gap of lack of sufficient
information The concluding decisions emphasised henceforth was that indeed stock and unit trusts are
profitable in the short medium and long term thus the recommendation is to invest in both starting
with unit trusts then the stock market given that capital is adequate The limitation of the study though
is the assumption of adequate capital which is not always so and lack of a third party to corroborate the
prospected portfolio for Batswana investors
8 | P a g e
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1- Research methods25
Table 2-SPSS reliability test29
Table 3- Background data31
Table 4- Education level32
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32
Table 6- Questionnaire findings34
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137
Table 8- Pearson correlation 237
Table 9- Pearson correlation 337
Table 10- Pearson correlation 438
Table 11- Pearson correlation 538
Table 12- Anova regression analysis38
9 | P a g e
LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23
10 | P a g e
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
11 INTRODUCTION
This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will
follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building
profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with
the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would
henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions
The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking
answers and solutions to the questions laid forth
12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment
portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles
-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming
adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas
13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing
segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM
Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are
not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures
11 | P a g e
to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with
their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put
in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study
focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana
To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to
investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with
respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better
portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because
many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment
structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence
potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in
turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole
15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means
toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of
the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement
packages
Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the
actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a
business environment
Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial
institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested
into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)
Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are
secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)
Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on
an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)
Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public
for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)
12 | P a g e
16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the
most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which
investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The
study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain
whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund
managers available in the country
17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the
researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo
did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current
literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology
emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this
chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the
conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The
final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance
and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part
B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010
2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol
18 Iss 2 pp 157-172
3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani
(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52
Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017
4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing
model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol
52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313
13 | P a g e
5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend
irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash
241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638
14 | P a g e
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING
21 INTRODUCTION
The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market
to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with
motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research
conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors
affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and
term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock
market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in
mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of
the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio
building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the
study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the
Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective
economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the
direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the
study
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes
2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by
investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a
vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be
invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers
themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit
trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector
2212 Stock Market
15 | P a g e
Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio
and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return
predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)
222 Unit trusts Performance
2221 Rewards
A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao
Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts
possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic
mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported
by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their
investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of
mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a
diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found
that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of
mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these
factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that
independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct
greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence
management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect
creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele
2222 Risk
Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a
manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into
concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund
managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is
because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum
16 | P a g e
strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in
search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the
CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The
same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to
poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior
to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)
2223 Author Advocacy
The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first
investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment
firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research
conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and
the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is
during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis
unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and
supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be
profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers
but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back
seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that
market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore
good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the
contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose
much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver
223 Stock market Performance
2231 Rewards
Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by
Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor
John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-
down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom
up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell
market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this
quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of
opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore
17 | P a g e
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
I Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse hereby declare that this independent study is my own original work and
that no part of it has been plagiarised Where ideas from other authors in any form (eg ideas figures
texts and tables) are used they are acknowledged and referenced in accordance with the Harvard
referencing system
_____________________________
Signature 5 May 2016
Chilo Tumo Ketlhoafetse
Table of Contents
DECLARATION3
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS7
3 | P a g e
ABSTRACT8
LIST OF TABLES9
LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS10
CHAPTER 111
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND11
11 INTRODUCTION11
12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION11
13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY11
14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY11
15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS12
16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY13
17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS13
BIBLIOGRAPHY13
CHAPTER 215
LITERATURE REVIEW15
21 INTRODUCTION15
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES15
221 Classification of the two asset classes15
222 Unit trusts Performance16
223 Stock market Performance17
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING18
231 Investment Theories18
232 Investor Perceptions19
233 Portfolio Building20
24 CONCLUSION21
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW22
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY22
CHAPTER 323
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY23
31 INTRODUCTION23
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY24
33 RESEARCH APPROACH24
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY24
4 | P a g e
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS25
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)26
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)27
353 Data collection procedure27
354 Data analysis procedure28
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)28
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS29
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY30
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)30
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY30
CHAPTER 431
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS31
41 INTRODUCTION31
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY31
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED31
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS31
45 MAJOR FINDINGS32
451 Objective 132
452 Objective 234
453 Objective 339
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS40
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY41
CHAPTER 542
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42
51 INTRODUCTION42
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42
521 Reinforcing what is already known42
522 What is new and different in the findings43
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field44
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY44
CHAPTER 645
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS45
61 INTRODUCTION45
5 | P a g e
62 CONCLUSIONS45
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS46
64 LIMITATIONS47
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY47
CHAPTER 748
REFLECTIONS48
REFERENCE50
APPENDICES55
Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire55
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions59
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends60
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations61
6 | P a g e
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research represents a great portion of my undergraduate study in the Honours Degree in
Accounting and Finance with the University of Derby The process of gathering throughout to
achieving the aim has been so intense in that it demanded a great deal of time hard work focus and
attention which in turn resulted in a greater understanding in the nature of this topic
First and foremost I would like to thank Mr Munyaradzi Nyandoro as my project supervisor for
sharing his intellect with me over this investment topic with him being the lsquoChief Economistrsquo in
Botswana Accountancy College My sincerest gratitude and appreciation go to him as his support
acted as a gear towards my understanding of this research and it would have not been possible without
his assistance and unwavering support For this I would like to thank him dearly for his guidance and
patience throughout
I would also like to extend my sincere gratitudersquos for their continuous support in this research
understanding of its dynamics and thereby apprehending the footprint towards achieving my aim Dr
Gande truly has been a blessing especially through his patience by lecturing us on Independent Studies
and also Financial Reporting hence spending a great deal of time amongst such a large number of
students Again I thank you dearly along with the other BAC lectures for their contribution expressed
anyhow
Furthermore I would also like to thank Thabelo Nemaorani of the Botswana Stock Exchange for his
extended support for providing information about stocks and the general overview of Botswana
investments though he was not obliged to do so I thank him utmost The same goes for Mogi Lebetwa
of Imara Capital Securities who took time off her busy schedule to assist me where possible about
investment opportunities availed in the country and how I would incorporate that in my study This is
truly heartfelt and I am really grateful
7 | P a g e
ABSTRACT
Investment opportunities remain vast within the Botswana economy and investors seek to make wise
choices about their investments hence would require help selecting the most profitable from the
options presented to them Recent studies have showed their own view of unit trusts and the stock
market and how to benefit from them but none has touched on the long term investment especially
generally for Botswana This dissertation aims to evaluate a structure of investing both unit trusts and
into the stock market using the unique earnings capabilities of the respective asset classes Current
literature has outlined that the unit trust industry is one of the fastest growing in the finance sector and
their competitive edge lies with their diversification thereby minimising risk and creating room for
wealth creation while on the other hand the stock market bears a number of systematic risks for
different types of stock available With higher risks are an expectation of higher returns hence risk
takers would benefit vastly The researcher adopted an abductive approach for a pragmatist philosophy
so say that there are a number of ways to interpret one picture hence being open minded about
investment ventures available for inclusion in onersquos portfolio Instruments such as questionnaires were
used to collect data and analysis for which done though statistical softwarersquos archival research
analysis which was quantitative was through the assistance of Microsoft excel The data was collected
from a sample of investors whom a good number of which are of have a University degree in Finance
hence have sound knowledge on the dynamics of investing The study found that BIHL from the
sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the most profitable stock on the stock
exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which investors should venture into and are the
money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The study has also found that a number of
investors would like to invest in the future and are certain about investing their money in a company
than keeping it in a bank only a fair number of the participants seem aware of fund managers
available in the country hence this research would like to bridge the gap of lack of sufficient
information The concluding decisions emphasised henceforth was that indeed stock and unit trusts are
profitable in the short medium and long term thus the recommendation is to invest in both starting
with unit trusts then the stock market given that capital is adequate The limitation of the study though
is the assumption of adequate capital which is not always so and lack of a third party to corroborate the
prospected portfolio for Batswana investors
8 | P a g e
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1- Research methods25
Table 2-SPSS reliability test29
Table 3- Background data31
Table 4- Education level32
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32
Table 6- Questionnaire findings34
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137
Table 8- Pearson correlation 237
Table 9- Pearson correlation 337
Table 10- Pearson correlation 438
Table 11- Pearson correlation 538
Table 12- Anova regression analysis38
9 | P a g e
LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23
10 | P a g e
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
11 INTRODUCTION
This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will
follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building
profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with
the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would
henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions
The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking
answers and solutions to the questions laid forth
12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment
portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles
-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming
adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas
13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing
segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM
Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are
not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures
11 | P a g e
to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with
their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put
in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study
focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana
To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to
investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with
respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better
portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because
many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment
structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence
potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in
turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole
15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means
toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of
the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement
packages
Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the
actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a
business environment
Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial
institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested
into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)
Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are
secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)
Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on
an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)
Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public
for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)
12 | P a g e
16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the
most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which
investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The
study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain
whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund
managers available in the country
17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the
researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo
did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current
literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology
emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this
chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the
conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The
final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance
and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part
B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010
2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol
18 Iss 2 pp 157-172
3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani
(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52
Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017
4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing
model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol
52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313
13 | P a g e
5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend
irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash
241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638
14 | P a g e
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING
21 INTRODUCTION
The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market
to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with
motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research
conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors
affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and
term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock
market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in
mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of
the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio
building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the
study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the
Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective
economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the
direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the
study
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes
2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by
investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a
vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be
invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers
themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit
trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector
2212 Stock Market
15 | P a g e
Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio
and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return
predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)
222 Unit trusts Performance
2221 Rewards
A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao
Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts
possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic
mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported
by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their
investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of
mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a
diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found
that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of
mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these
factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that
independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct
greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence
management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect
creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele
2222 Risk
Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a
manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into
concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund
managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is
because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum
16 | P a g e
strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in
search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the
CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The
same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to
poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior
to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)
2223 Author Advocacy
The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first
investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment
firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research
conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and
the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is
during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis
unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and
supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be
profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers
but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back
seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that
market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore
good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the
contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose
much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver
223 Stock market Performance
2231 Rewards
Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by
Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor
John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-
down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom
up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell
market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this
quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of
opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore
17 | P a g e
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
ABSTRACT8
LIST OF TABLES9
LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS10
CHAPTER 111
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND11
11 INTRODUCTION11
12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION11
13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY11
14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY11
15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS12
16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY13
17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS13
BIBLIOGRAPHY13
CHAPTER 215
LITERATURE REVIEW15
21 INTRODUCTION15
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES15
221 Classification of the two asset classes15
222 Unit trusts Performance16
223 Stock market Performance17
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING18
231 Investment Theories18
232 Investor Perceptions19
233 Portfolio Building20
24 CONCLUSION21
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW22
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY22
CHAPTER 323
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY23
31 INTRODUCTION23
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY24
33 RESEARCH APPROACH24
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY24
4 | P a g e
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS25
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)26
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)27
353 Data collection procedure27
354 Data analysis procedure28
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)28
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS29
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY30
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)30
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY30
CHAPTER 431
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS31
41 INTRODUCTION31
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY31
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED31
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS31
45 MAJOR FINDINGS32
451 Objective 132
452 Objective 234
453 Objective 339
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS40
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY41
CHAPTER 542
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42
51 INTRODUCTION42
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42
521 Reinforcing what is already known42
522 What is new and different in the findings43
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field44
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY44
CHAPTER 645
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS45
61 INTRODUCTION45
5 | P a g e
62 CONCLUSIONS45
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS46
64 LIMITATIONS47
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY47
CHAPTER 748
REFLECTIONS48
REFERENCE50
APPENDICES55
Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire55
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions59
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends60
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations61
6 | P a g e
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research represents a great portion of my undergraduate study in the Honours Degree in
Accounting and Finance with the University of Derby The process of gathering throughout to
achieving the aim has been so intense in that it demanded a great deal of time hard work focus and
attention which in turn resulted in a greater understanding in the nature of this topic
First and foremost I would like to thank Mr Munyaradzi Nyandoro as my project supervisor for
sharing his intellect with me over this investment topic with him being the lsquoChief Economistrsquo in
Botswana Accountancy College My sincerest gratitude and appreciation go to him as his support
acted as a gear towards my understanding of this research and it would have not been possible without
his assistance and unwavering support For this I would like to thank him dearly for his guidance and
patience throughout
I would also like to extend my sincere gratitudersquos for their continuous support in this research
understanding of its dynamics and thereby apprehending the footprint towards achieving my aim Dr
Gande truly has been a blessing especially through his patience by lecturing us on Independent Studies
and also Financial Reporting hence spending a great deal of time amongst such a large number of
students Again I thank you dearly along with the other BAC lectures for their contribution expressed
anyhow
Furthermore I would also like to thank Thabelo Nemaorani of the Botswana Stock Exchange for his
extended support for providing information about stocks and the general overview of Botswana
investments though he was not obliged to do so I thank him utmost The same goes for Mogi Lebetwa
of Imara Capital Securities who took time off her busy schedule to assist me where possible about
investment opportunities availed in the country and how I would incorporate that in my study This is
truly heartfelt and I am really grateful
7 | P a g e
ABSTRACT
Investment opportunities remain vast within the Botswana economy and investors seek to make wise
choices about their investments hence would require help selecting the most profitable from the
options presented to them Recent studies have showed their own view of unit trusts and the stock
market and how to benefit from them but none has touched on the long term investment especially
generally for Botswana This dissertation aims to evaluate a structure of investing both unit trusts and
into the stock market using the unique earnings capabilities of the respective asset classes Current
literature has outlined that the unit trust industry is one of the fastest growing in the finance sector and
their competitive edge lies with their diversification thereby minimising risk and creating room for
wealth creation while on the other hand the stock market bears a number of systematic risks for
different types of stock available With higher risks are an expectation of higher returns hence risk
takers would benefit vastly The researcher adopted an abductive approach for a pragmatist philosophy
so say that there are a number of ways to interpret one picture hence being open minded about
investment ventures available for inclusion in onersquos portfolio Instruments such as questionnaires were
used to collect data and analysis for which done though statistical softwarersquos archival research
analysis which was quantitative was through the assistance of Microsoft excel The data was collected
from a sample of investors whom a good number of which are of have a University degree in Finance
hence have sound knowledge on the dynamics of investing The study found that BIHL from the
sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the most profitable stock on the stock
exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which investors should venture into and are the
money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The study has also found that a number of
investors would like to invest in the future and are certain about investing their money in a company
than keeping it in a bank only a fair number of the participants seem aware of fund managers
available in the country hence this research would like to bridge the gap of lack of sufficient
information The concluding decisions emphasised henceforth was that indeed stock and unit trusts are
profitable in the short medium and long term thus the recommendation is to invest in both starting
with unit trusts then the stock market given that capital is adequate The limitation of the study though
is the assumption of adequate capital which is not always so and lack of a third party to corroborate the
prospected portfolio for Batswana investors
8 | P a g e
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1- Research methods25
Table 2-SPSS reliability test29
Table 3- Background data31
Table 4- Education level32
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32
Table 6- Questionnaire findings34
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137
Table 8- Pearson correlation 237
Table 9- Pearson correlation 337
Table 10- Pearson correlation 438
Table 11- Pearson correlation 538
Table 12- Anova regression analysis38
9 | P a g e
LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23
10 | P a g e
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
11 INTRODUCTION
This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will
follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building
profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with
the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would
henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions
The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking
answers and solutions to the questions laid forth
12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment
portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles
-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming
adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas
13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing
segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM
Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are
not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures
11 | P a g e
to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with
their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put
in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study
focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana
To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to
investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with
respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better
portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because
many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment
structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence
potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in
turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole
15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means
toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of
the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement
packages
Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the
actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a
business environment
Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial
institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested
into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)
Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are
secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)
Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on
an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)
Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public
for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)
12 | P a g e
16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the
most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which
investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The
study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain
whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund
managers available in the country
17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the
researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo
did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current
literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology
emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this
chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the
conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The
final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance
and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part
B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010
2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol
18 Iss 2 pp 157-172
3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani
(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52
Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017
4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing
model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol
52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313
13 | P a g e
5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend
irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash
241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638
14 | P a g e
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING
21 INTRODUCTION
The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market
to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with
motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research
conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors
affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and
term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock
market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in
mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of
the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio
building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the
study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the
Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective
economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the
direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the
study
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes
2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by
investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a
vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be
invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers
themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit
trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector
2212 Stock Market
15 | P a g e
Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio
and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return
predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)
222 Unit trusts Performance
2221 Rewards
A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao
Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts
possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic
mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported
by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their
investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of
mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a
diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found
that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of
mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these
factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that
independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct
greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence
management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect
creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele
2222 Risk
Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a
manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into
concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund
managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is
because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum
16 | P a g e
strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in
search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the
CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The
same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to
poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior
to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)
2223 Author Advocacy
The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first
investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment
firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research
conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and
the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is
during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis
unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and
supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be
profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers
but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back
seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that
market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore
good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the
contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose
much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver
223 Stock market Performance
2231 Rewards
Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by
Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor
John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-
down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom
up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell
market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this
quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of
opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore
17 | P a g e
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS25
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)26
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)27
353 Data collection procedure27
354 Data analysis procedure28
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)28
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS29
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY30
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)30
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY30
CHAPTER 431
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS31
41 INTRODUCTION31
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY31
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED31
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS31
45 MAJOR FINDINGS32
451 Objective 132
452 Objective 234
453 Objective 339
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS40
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY41
CHAPTER 542
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42
51 INTRODUCTION42
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS42
521 Reinforcing what is already known42
522 What is new and different in the findings43
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field44
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY44
CHAPTER 645
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS45
61 INTRODUCTION45
5 | P a g e
62 CONCLUSIONS45
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS46
64 LIMITATIONS47
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY47
CHAPTER 748
REFLECTIONS48
REFERENCE50
APPENDICES55
Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire55
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions59
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends60
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations61
6 | P a g e
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research represents a great portion of my undergraduate study in the Honours Degree in
Accounting and Finance with the University of Derby The process of gathering throughout to
achieving the aim has been so intense in that it demanded a great deal of time hard work focus and
attention which in turn resulted in a greater understanding in the nature of this topic
First and foremost I would like to thank Mr Munyaradzi Nyandoro as my project supervisor for
sharing his intellect with me over this investment topic with him being the lsquoChief Economistrsquo in
Botswana Accountancy College My sincerest gratitude and appreciation go to him as his support
acted as a gear towards my understanding of this research and it would have not been possible without
his assistance and unwavering support For this I would like to thank him dearly for his guidance and
patience throughout
I would also like to extend my sincere gratitudersquos for their continuous support in this research
understanding of its dynamics and thereby apprehending the footprint towards achieving my aim Dr
Gande truly has been a blessing especially through his patience by lecturing us on Independent Studies
and also Financial Reporting hence spending a great deal of time amongst such a large number of
students Again I thank you dearly along with the other BAC lectures for their contribution expressed
anyhow
Furthermore I would also like to thank Thabelo Nemaorani of the Botswana Stock Exchange for his
extended support for providing information about stocks and the general overview of Botswana
investments though he was not obliged to do so I thank him utmost The same goes for Mogi Lebetwa
of Imara Capital Securities who took time off her busy schedule to assist me where possible about
investment opportunities availed in the country and how I would incorporate that in my study This is
truly heartfelt and I am really grateful
7 | P a g e
ABSTRACT
Investment opportunities remain vast within the Botswana economy and investors seek to make wise
choices about their investments hence would require help selecting the most profitable from the
options presented to them Recent studies have showed their own view of unit trusts and the stock
market and how to benefit from them but none has touched on the long term investment especially
generally for Botswana This dissertation aims to evaluate a structure of investing both unit trusts and
into the stock market using the unique earnings capabilities of the respective asset classes Current
literature has outlined that the unit trust industry is one of the fastest growing in the finance sector and
their competitive edge lies with their diversification thereby minimising risk and creating room for
wealth creation while on the other hand the stock market bears a number of systematic risks for
different types of stock available With higher risks are an expectation of higher returns hence risk
takers would benefit vastly The researcher adopted an abductive approach for a pragmatist philosophy
so say that there are a number of ways to interpret one picture hence being open minded about
investment ventures available for inclusion in onersquos portfolio Instruments such as questionnaires were
used to collect data and analysis for which done though statistical softwarersquos archival research
analysis which was quantitative was through the assistance of Microsoft excel The data was collected
from a sample of investors whom a good number of which are of have a University degree in Finance
hence have sound knowledge on the dynamics of investing The study found that BIHL from the
sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the most profitable stock on the stock
exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which investors should venture into and are the
money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The study has also found that a number of
investors would like to invest in the future and are certain about investing their money in a company
than keeping it in a bank only a fair number of the participants seem aware of fund managers
available in the country hence this research would like to bridge the gap of lack of sufficient
information The concluding decisions emphasised henceforth was that indeed stock and unit trusts are
profitable in the short medium and long term thus the recommendation is to invest in both starting
with unit trusts then the stock market given that capital is adequate The limitation of the study though
is the assumption of adequate capital which is not always so and lack of a third party to corroborate the
prospected portfolio for Batswana investors
8 | P a g e
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1- Research methods25
Table 2-SPSS reliability test29
Table 3- Background data31
Table 4- Education level32
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32
Table 6- Questionnaire findings34
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137
Table 8- Pearson correlation 237
Table 9- Pearson correlation 337
Table 10- Pearson correlation 438
Table 11- Pearson correlation 538
Table 12- Anova regression analysis38
9 | P a g e
LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23
10 | P a g e
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
11 INTRODUCTION
This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will
follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building
profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with
the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would
henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions
The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking
answers and solutions to the questions laid forth
12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment
portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles
-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming
adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas
13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing
segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM
Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are
not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures
11 | P a g e
to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with
their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put
in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study
focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana
To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to
investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with
respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better
portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because
many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment
structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence
potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in
turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole
15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means
toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of
the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement
packages
Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the
actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a
business environment
Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial
institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested
into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)
Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are
secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)
Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on
an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)
Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public
for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)
12 | P a g e
16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the
most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which
investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The
study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain
whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund
managers available in the country
17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the
researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo
did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current
literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology
emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this
chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the
conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The
final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance
and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part
B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010
2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol
18 Iss 2 pp 157-172
3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani
(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52
Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017
4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing
model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol
52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313
13 | P a g e
5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend
irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash
241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638
14 | P a g e
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING
21 INTRODUCTION
The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market
to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with
motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research
conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors
affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and
term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock
market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in
mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of
the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio
building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the
study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the
Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective
economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the
direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the
study
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes
2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by
investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a
vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be
invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers
themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit
trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector
2212 Stock Market
15 | P a g e
Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio
and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return
predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)
222 Unit trusts Performance
2221 Rewards
A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao
Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts
possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic
mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported
by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their
investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of
mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a
diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found
that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of
mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these
factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that
independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct
greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence
management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect
creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele
2222 Risk
Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a
manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into
concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund
managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is
because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum
16 | P a g e
strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in
search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the
CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The
same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to
poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior
to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)
2223 Author Advocacy
The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first
investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment
firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research
conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and
the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is
during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis
unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and
supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be
profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers
but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back
seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that
market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore
good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the
contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose
much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver
223 Stock market Performance
2231 Rewards
Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by
Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor
John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-
down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom
up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell
market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this
quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of
opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore
17 | P a g e
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
62 CONCLUSIONS45
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS46
64 LIMITATIONS47
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY47
CHAPTER 748
REFLECTIONS48
REFERENCE50
APPENDICES55
Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire55
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions59
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends60
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations61
6 | P a g e
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research represents a great portion of my undergraduate study in the Honours Degree in
Accounting and Finance with the University of Derby The process of gathering throughout to
achieving the aim has been so intense in that it demanded a great deal of time hard work focus and
attention which in turn resulted in a greater understanding in the nature of this topic
First and foremost I would like to thank Mr Munyaradzi Nyandoro as my project supervisor for
sharing his intellect with me over this investment topic with him being the lsquoChief Economistrsquo in
Botswana Accountancy College My sincerest gratitude and appreciation go to him as his support
acted as a gear towards my understanding of this research and it would have not been possible without
his assistance and unwavering support For this I would like to thank him dearly for his guidance and
patience throughout
I would also like to extend my sincere gratitudersquos for their continuous support in this research
understanding of its dynamics and thereby apprehending the footprint towards achieving my aim Dr
Gande truly has been a blessing especially through his patience by lecturing us on Independent Studies
and also Financial Reporting hence spending a great deal of time amongst such a large number of
students Again I thank you dearly along with the other BAC lectures for their contribution expressed
anyhow
Furthermore I would also like to thank Thabelo Nemaorani of the Botswana Stock Exchange for his
extended support for providing information about stocks and the general overview of Botswana
investments though he was not obliged to do so I thank him utmost The same goes for Mogi Lebetwa
of Imara Capital Securities who took time off her busy schedule to assist me where possible about
investment opportunities availed in the country and how I would incorporate that in my study This is
truly heartfelt and I am really grateful
7 | P a g e
ABSTRACT
Investment opportunities remain vast within the Botswana economy and investors seek to make wise
choices about their investments hence would require help selecting the most profitable from the
options presented to them Recent studies have showed their own view of unit trusts and the stock
market and how to benefit from them but none has touched on the long term investment especially
generally for Botswana This dissertation aims to evaluate a structure of investing both unit trusts and
into the stock market using the unique earnings capabilities of the respective asset classes Current
literature has outlined that the unit trust industry is one of the fastest growing in the finance sector and
their competitive edge lies with their diversification thereby minimising risk and creating room for
wealth creation while on the other hand the stock market bears a number of systematic risks for
different types of stock available With higher risks are an expectation of higher returns hence risk
takers would benefit vastly The researcher adopted an abductive approach for a pragmatist philosophy
so say that there are a number of ways to interpret one picture hence being open minded about
investment ventures available for inclusion in onersquos portfolio Instruments such as questionnaires were
used to collect data and analysis for which done though statistical softwarersquos archival research
analysis which was quantitative was through the assistance of Microsoft excel The data was collected
from a sample of investors whom a good number of which are of have a University degree in Finance
hence have sound knowledge on the dynamics of investing The study found that BIHL from the
sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the most profitable stock on the stock
exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which investors should venture into and are the
money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The study has also found that a number of
investors would like to invest in the future and are certain about investing their money in a company
than keeping it in a bank only a fair number of the participants seem aware of fund managers
available in the country hence this research would like to bridge the gap of lack of sufficient
information The concluding decisions emphasised henceforth was that indeed stock and unit trusts are
profitable in the short medium and long term thus the recommendation is to invest in both starting
with unit trusts then the stock market given that capital is adequate The limitation of the study though
is the assumption of adequate capital which is not always so and lack of a third party to corroborate the
prospected portfolio for Batswana investors
8 | P a g e
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1- Research methods25
Table 2-SPSS reliability test29
Table 3- Background data31
Table 4- Education level32
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32
Table 6- Questionnaire findings34
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137
Table 8- Pearson correlation 237
Table 9- Pearson correlation 337
Table 10- Pearson correlation 438
Table 11- Pearson correlation 538
Table 12- Anova regression analysis38
9 | P a g e
LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23
10 | P a g e
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
11 INTRODUCTION
This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will
follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building
profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with
the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would
henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions
The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking
answers and solutions to the questions laid forth
12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment
portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles
-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming
adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas
13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing
segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM
Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are
not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures
11 | P a g e
to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with
their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put
in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study
focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana
To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to
investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with
respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better
portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because
many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment
structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence
potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in
turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole
15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means
toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of
the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement
packages
Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the
actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a
business environment
Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial
institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested
into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)
Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are
secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)
Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on
an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)
Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public
for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)
12 | P a g e
16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the
most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which
investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The
study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain
whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund
managers available in the country
17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the
researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo
did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current
literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology
emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this
chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the
conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The
final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance
and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part
B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010
2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol
18 Iss 2 pp 157-172
3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani
(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52
Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017
4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing
model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol
52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313
13 | P a g e
5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend
irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash
241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638
14 | P a g e
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING
21 INTRODUCTION
The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market
to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with
motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research
conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors
affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and
term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock
market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in
mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of
the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio
building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the
study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the
Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective
economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the
direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the
study
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes
2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by
investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a
vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be
invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers
themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit
trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector
2212 Stock Market
15 | P a g e
Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio
and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return
predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)
222 Unit trusts Performance
2221 Rewards
A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao
Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts
possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic
mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported
by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their
investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of
mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a
diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found
that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of
mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these
factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that
independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct
greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence
management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect
creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele
2222 Risk
Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a
manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into
concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund
managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is
because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum
16 | P a g e
strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in
search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the
CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The
same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to
poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior
to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)
2223 Author Advocacy
The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first
investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment
firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research
conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and
the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is
during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis
unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and
supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be
profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers
but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back
seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that
market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore
good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the
contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose
much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver
223 Stock market Performance
2231 Rewards
Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by
Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor
John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-
down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom
up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell
market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this
quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of
opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore
17 | P a g e
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
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Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
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origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
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8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
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13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
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26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
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38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research represents a great portion of my undergraduate study in the Honours Degree in
Accounting and Finance with the University of Derby The process of gathering throughout to
achieving the aim has been so intense in that it demanded a great deal of time hard work focus and
attention which in turn resulted in a greater understanding in the nature of this topic
First and foremost I would like to thank Mr Munyaradzi Nyandoro as my project supervisor for
sharing his intellect with me over this investment topic with him being the lsquoChief Economistrsquo in
Botswana Accountancy College My sincerest gratitude and appreciation go to him as his support
acted as a gear towards my understanding of this research and it would have not been possible without
his assistance and unwavering support For this I would like to thank him dearly for his guidance and
patience throughout
I would also like to extend my sincere gratitudersquos for their continuous support in this research
understanding of its dynamics and thereby apprehending the footprint towards achieving my aim Dr
Gande truly has been a blessing especially through his patience by lecturing us on Independent Studies
and also Financial Reporting hence spending a great deal of time amongst such a large number of
students Again I thank you dearly along with the other BAC lectures for their contribution expressed
anyhow
Furthermore I would also like to thank Thabelo Nemaorani of the Botswana Stock Exchange for his
extended support for providing information about stocks and the general overview of Botswana
investments though he was not obliged to do so I thank him utmost The same goes for Mogi Lebetwa
of Imara Capital Securities who took time off her busy schedule to assist me where possible about
investment opportunities availed in the country and how I would incorporate that in my study This is
truly heartfelt and I am really grateful
7 | P a g e
ABSTRACT
Investment opportunities remain vast within the Botswana economy and investors seek to make wise
choices about their investments hence would require help selecting the most profitable from the
options presented to them Recent studies have showed their own view of unit trusts and the stock
market and how to benefit from them but none has touched on the long term investment especially
generally for Botswana This dissertation aims to evaluate a structure of investing both unit trusts and
into the stock market using the unique earnings capabilities of the respective asset classes Current
literature has outlined that the unit trust industry is one of the fastest growing in the finance sector and
their competitive edge lies with their diversification thereby minimising risk and creating room for
wealth creation while on the other hand the stock market bears a number of systematic risks for
different types of stock available With higher risks are an expectation of higher returns hence risk
takers would benefit vastly The researcher adopted an abductive approach for a pragmatist philosophy
so say that there are a number of ways to interpret one picture hence being open minded about
investment ventures available for inclusion in onersquos portfolio Instruments such as questionnaires were
used to collect data and analysis for which done though statistical softwarersquos archival research
analysis which was quantitative was through the assistance of Microsoft excel The data was collected
from a sample of investors whom a good number of which are of have a University degree in Finance
hence have sound knowledge on the dynamics of investing The study found that BIHL from the
sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the most profitable stock on the stock
exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which investors should venture into and are the
money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The study has also found that a number of
investors would like to invest in the future and are certain about investing their money in a company
than keeping it in a bank only a fair number of the participants seem aware of fund managers
available in the country hence this research would like to bridge the gap of lack of sufficient
information The concluding decisions emphasised henceforth was that indeed stock and unit trusts are
profitable in the short medium and long term thus the recommendation is to invest in both starting
with unit trusts then the stock market given that capital is adequate The limitation of the study though
is the assumption of adequate capital which is not always so and lack of a third party to corroborate the
prospected portfolio for Batswana investors
8 | P a g e
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1- Research methods25
Table 2-SPSS reliability test29
Table 3- Background data31
Table 4- Education level32
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32
Table 6- Questionnaire findings34
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137
Table 8- Pearson correlation 237
Table 9- Pearson correlation 337
Table 10- Pearson correlation 438
Table 11- Pearson correlation 538
Table 12- Anova regression analysis38
9 | P a g e
LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23
10 | P a g e
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
11 INTRODUCTION
This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will
follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building
profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with
the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would
henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions
The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking
answers and solutions to the questions laid forth
12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment
portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles
-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming
adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas
13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing
segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM
Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are
not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures
11 | P a g e
to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with
their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put
in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study
focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana
To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to
investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with
respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better
portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because
many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment
structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence
potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in
turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole
15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means
toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of
the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement
packages
Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the
actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a
business environment
Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial
institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested
into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)
Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are
secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)
Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on
an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)
Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public
for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)
12 | P a g e
16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the
most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which
investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The
study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain
whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund
managers available in the country
17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the
researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo
did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current
literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology
emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this
chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the
conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The
final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance
and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part
B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010
2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol
18 Iss 2 pp 157-172
3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani
(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52
Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017
4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing
model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol
52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313
13 | P a g e
5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend
irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash
241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638
14 | P a g e
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING
21 INTRODUCTION
The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market
to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with
motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research
conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors
affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and
term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock
market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in
mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of
the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio
building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the
study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the
Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective
economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the
direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the
study
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes
2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by
investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a
vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be
invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers
themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit
trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector
2212 Stock Market
15 | P a g e
Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio
and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return
predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)
222 Unit trusts Performance
2221 Rewards
A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao
Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts
possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic
mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported
by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their
investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of
mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a
diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found
that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of
mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these
factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that
independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct
greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence
management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect
creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele
2222 Risk
Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a
manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into
concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund
managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is
because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum
16 | P a g e
strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in
search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the
CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The
same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to
poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior
to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)
2223 Author Advocacy
The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first
investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment
firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research
conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and
the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is
during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis
unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and
supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be
profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers
but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back
seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that
market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore
good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the
contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose
much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver
223 Stock market Performance
2231 Rewards
Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by
Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor
John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-
down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom
up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell
market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this
quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of
opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore
17 | P a g e
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
ABSTRACT
Investment opportunities remain vast within the Botswana economy and investors seek to make wise
choices about their investments hence would require help selecting the most profitable from the
options presented to them Recent studies have showed their own view of unit trusts and the stock
market and how to benefit from them but none has touched on the long term investment especially
generally for Botswana This dissertation aims to evaluate a structure of investing both unit trusts and
into the stock market using the unique earnings capabilities of the respective asset classes Current
literature has outlined that the unit trust industry is one of the fastest growing in the finance sector and
their competitive edge lies with their diversification thereby minimising risk and creating room for
wealth creation while on the other hand the stock market bears a number of systematic risks for
different types of stock available With higher risks are an expectation of higher returns hence risk
takers would benefit vastly The researcher adopted an abductive approach for a pragmatist philosophy
so say that there are a number of ways to interpret one picture hence being open minded about
investment ventures available for inclusion in onersquos portfolio Instruments such as questionnaires were
used to collect data and analysis for which done though statistical softwarersquos archival research
analysis which was quantitative was through the assistance of Microsoft excel The data was collected
from a sample of investors whom a good number of which are of have a University degree in Finance
hence have sound knowledge on the dynamics of investing The study found that BIHL from the
sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the most profitable stock on the stock
exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which investors should venture into and are the
money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The study has also found that a number of
investors would like to invest in the future and are certain about investing their money in a company
than keeping it in a bank only a fair number of the participants seem aware of fund managers
available in the country hence this research would like to bridge the gap of lack of sufficient
information The concluding decisions emphasised henceforth was that indeed stock and unit trusts are
profitable in the short medium and long term thus the recommendation is to invest in both starting
with unit trusts then the stock market given that capital is adequate The limitation of the study though
is the assumption of adequate capital which is not always so and lack of a third party to corroborate the
prospected portfolio for Batswana investors
8 | P a g e
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1- Research methods25
Table 2-SPSS reliability test29
Table 3- Background data31
Table 4- Education level32
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32
Table 6- Questionnaire findings34
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137
Table 8- Pearson correlation 237
Table 9- Pearson correlation 337
Table 10- Pearson correlation 438
Table 11- Pearson correlation 538
Table 12- Anova regression analysis38
9 | P a g e
LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23
10 | P a g e
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
11 INTRODUCTION
This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will
follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building
profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with
the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would
henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions
The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking
answers and solutions to the questions laid forth
12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment
portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles
-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming
adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas
13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing
segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM
Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are
not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures
11 | P a g e
to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with
their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put
in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study
focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana
To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to
investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with
respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better
portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because
many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment
structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence
potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in
turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole
15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means
toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of
the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement
packages
Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the
actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a
business environment
Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial
institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested
into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)
Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are
secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)
Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on
an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)
Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public
for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)
12 | P a g e
16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the
most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which
investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The
study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain
whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund
managers available in the country
17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the
researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo
did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current
literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology
emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this
chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the
conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The
final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance
and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part
B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010
2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol
18 Iss 2 pp 157-172
3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani
(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52
Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017
4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing
model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol
52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313
13 | P a g e
5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend
irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash
241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638
14 | P a g e
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING
21 INTRODUCTION
The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market
to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with
motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research
conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors
affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and
term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock
market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in
mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of
the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio
building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the
study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the
Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective
economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the
direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the
study
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes
2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by
investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a
vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be
invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers
themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit
trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector
2212 Stock Market
15 | P a g e
Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio
and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return
predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)
222 Unit trusts Performance
2221 Rewards
A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao
Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts
possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic
mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported
by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their
investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of
mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a
diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found
that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of
mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these
factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that
independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct
greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence
management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect
creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele
2222 Risk
Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a
manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into
concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund
managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is
because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum
16 | P a g e
strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in
search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the
CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The
same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to
poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior
to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)
2223 Author Advocacy
The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first
investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment
firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research
conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and
the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is
during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis
unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and
supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be
profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers
but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back
seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that
market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore
good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the
contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose
much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver
223 Stock market Performance
2231 Rewards
Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by
Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor
John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-
down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom
up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell
market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this
quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of
opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore
17 | P a g e
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1- Research methods25
Table 2-SPSS reliability test29
Table 3- Background data31
Table 4- Education level32
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis32
Table 6- Questionnaire findings34
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 137
Table 8- Pearson correlation 237
Table 9- Pearson correlation 337
Table 10- Pearson correlation 438
Table 11- Pearson correlation 538
Table 12- Anova regression analysis38
9 | P a g e
LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23
10 | P a g e
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
11 INTRODUCTION
This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will
follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building
profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with
the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would
henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions
The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking
answers and solutions to the questions laid forth
12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment
portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles
-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming
adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas
13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing
segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM
Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are
not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures
11 | P a g e
to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with
their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put
in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study
focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana
To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to
investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with
respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better
portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because
many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment
structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence
potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in
turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole
15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means
toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of
the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement
packages
Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the
actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a
business environment
Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial
institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested
into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)
Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are
secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)
Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on
an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)
Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public
for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)
12 | P a g e
16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the
most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which
investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The
study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain
whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund
managers available in the country
17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the
researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo
did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current
literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology
emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this
chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the
conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The
final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance
and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part
B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010
2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol
18 Iss 2 pp 157-172
3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani
(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52
Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017
4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing
model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol
52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313
13 | P a g e
5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend
irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash
241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638
14 | P a g e
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING
21 INTRODUCTION
The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market
to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with
motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research
conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors
affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and
term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock
market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in
mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of
the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio
building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the
study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the
Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective
economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the
direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the
study
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes
2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by
investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a
vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be
invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers
themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit
trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector
2212 Stock Market
15 | P a g e
Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio
and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return
predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)
222 Unit trusts Performance
2221 Rewards
A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao
Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts
possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic
mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported
by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their
investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of
mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a
diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found
that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of
mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these
factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that
independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct
greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence
management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect
creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele
2222 Risk
Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a
manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into
concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund
managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is
because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum
16 | P a g e
strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in
search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the
CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The
same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to
poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior
to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)
2223 Author Advocacy
The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first
investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment
firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research
conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and
the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is
during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis
unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and
supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be
profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers
but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back
seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that
market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore
good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the
contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose
much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver
223 Stock market Performance
2231 Rewards
Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by
Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor
John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-
down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom
up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell
market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this
quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of
opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore
17 | P a g e
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)23
10 | P a g e
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
11 INTRODUCTION
This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will
follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building
profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with
the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would
henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions
The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking
answers and solutions to the questions laid forth
12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment
portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles
-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming
adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas
13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing
segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM
Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are
not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures
11 | P a g e
to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with
their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put
in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study
focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana
To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to
investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with
respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better
portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because
many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment
structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence
potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in
turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole
15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means
toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of
the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement
packages
Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the
actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a
business environment
Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial
institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested
into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)
Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are
secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)
Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on
an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)
Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public
for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)
12 | P a g e
16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the
most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which
investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The
study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain
whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund
managers available in the country
17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the
researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo
did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current
literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology
emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this
chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the
conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The
final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance
and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part
B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010
2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol
18 Iss 2 pp 157-172
3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani
(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52
Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017
4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing
model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol
52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313
13 | P a g e
5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend
irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash
241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638
14 | P a g e
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING
21 INTRODUCTION
The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market
to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with
motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research
conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors
affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and
term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock
market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in
mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of
the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio
building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the
study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the
Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective
economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the
direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the
study
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes
2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by
investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a
vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be
invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers
themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit
trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector
2212 Stock Market
15 | P a g e
Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio
and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return
predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)
222 Unit trusts Performance
2221 Rewards
A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao
Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts
possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic
mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported
by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their
investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of
mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a
diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found
that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of
mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these
factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that
independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct
greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence
management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect
creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele
2222 Risk
Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a
manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into
concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund
managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is
because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum
16 | P a g e
strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in
search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the
CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The
same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to
poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior
to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)
2223 Author Advocacy
The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first
investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment
firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research
conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and
the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is
during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis
unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and
supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be
profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers
but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back
seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that
market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore
good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the
contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose
much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver
223 Stock market Performance
2231 Rewards
Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by
Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor
John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-
down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom
up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell
market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this
quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of
opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore
17 | P a g e
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
11 INTRODUCTION
This chapter outlines the membrane of the research in terms of intent purpose and direction it will
follow through the mandate of investing into unit trusts as opposed to stock market in building
profitable portfolios Herein forth the rationale behind such a topic is emphasised in detail along with
the questioning to an outlined problem in the area of investment The ideal conception would
henceforth be to strategize a plan to follow suit in order to find solutions
The aim and objectives of the study would serve as a backbone and light of directions towards seeking
answers and solutions to the questions laid forth
12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
-Investment in the stock market and unit trusts is usually short term there has not been a clear investment
portfolio which can be adopted for long term investing using the two investment vehicles
-What investment structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming
adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribas
13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
To evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
Unit trusts are not so popular within the Botswana economy on a general basis it is still a developing
segment in the investment environment Some of the Fund managers offering unit trusts are BIFM
Stanlib and Investec along with other banks The efforts towards marketing and advertising them are
not as robust and effective in being availed as compared to the stock market Evidence of this procures
11 | P a g e
to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with
their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put
in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study
focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana
To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to
investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with
respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better
portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because
many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment
structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence
potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in
turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole
15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means
toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of
the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement
packages
Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the
actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a
business environment
Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial
institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested
into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)
Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are
secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)
Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on
an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)
Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public
for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)
12 | P a g e
16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the
most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which
investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The
study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain
whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund
managers available in the country
17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the
researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo
did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current
literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology
emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this
chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the
conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The
final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance
and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part
B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010
2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol
18 Iss 2 pp 157-172
3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani
(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52
Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017
4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing
model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol
52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313
13 | P a g e
5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend
irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash
241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638
14 | P a g e
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING
21 INTRODUCTION
The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market
to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with
motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research
conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors
affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and
term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock
market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in
mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of
the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio
building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the
study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the
Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective
economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the
direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the
study
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes
2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by
investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a
vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be
invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers
themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit
trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector
2212 Stock Market
15 | P a g e
Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio
and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return
predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)
222 Unit trusts Performance
2221 Rewards
A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao
Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts
possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic
mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported
by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their
investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of
mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a
diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found
that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of
mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these
factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that
independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct
greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence
management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect
creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele
2222 Risk
Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a
manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into
concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund
managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is
because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum
16 | P a g e
strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in
search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the
CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The
same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to
poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior
to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)
2223 Author Advocacy
The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first
investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment
firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research
conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and
the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is
during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis
unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and
supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be
profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers
but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back
seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that
market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore
good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the
contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose
much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver
223 Stock market Performance
2231 Rewards
Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by
Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor
John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-
down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom
up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell
market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this
quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of
opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore
17 | P a g e
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
to the impact of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) by BTCL in that many Batswana came forth with
their offers majorly because of the advertising One would question though if the same efforts were put
in through for unit trusts since they too are profitable would the turnout be as much This study
focussed on the Botswana Stock Exchange and Fund Managers in Botswana
To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and term earnings with regards to
investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to into the stock market This is with
respect to bearing in mind which of the two asset classes would yield better returns and build better
portfolios and finally determine what investment mixture of the two would work best done so because
many potential investors seem to lack knowledge of investment and how to build their portfolios
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of investment
structuring theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Tangency portfolio approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) Two Fund Separation Theorem This is done so to influence
potential investors to invest in capital markets from which hence forth increases their wealth and in
turn increases real GDP for the economy as a whole
15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
Investment ndash Investment is defined by Sevdalis and Harrvey (2007 pg 2) as ldquois a financial means
toward a non-financial goalrdquo They outline that the basis of such is usually based upon the intentions of
the investor may it be short term like taking holidays within the year or long term like retirement
packages
Stock Market ndash Fornazzari (2009 pg 380) defines this to be a ldquosimulacrum of commerce than the
actual buying and selling of goodsrdquo thereby giving the implication of trade as an element in such a
business environment
Unit Trust ndash McGrath and Viney (1998 pg 29) outline it as a financial asset to which a financial
institution invites the public to invest into the fund for the purpose of which the company has invested
into assets specified by the trust deed (Tng 2006)
Investment Portfolio ndash Different financial assets pooled together such multiple sources of income are
secured and risk is spread over the portfolio (Corteacutes et al 2013)
Fund Manager ndash Outlined as one to be accountable and responsible by acting as an agent on behalf on
an investor to manage a portfolio of funds especially mutual funds (Fang and Wang 2015)
Initial Public Offering ndash Titman et al (2014) classifies it as when a company issues stock to the public
for the first time usually occurs on a primary market (Johnson and Sohl 2012)
12 | P a g e
16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the
most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which
investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The
study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain
whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund
managers available in the country
17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the
researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo
did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current
literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology
emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this
chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the
conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The
final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance
and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part
B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010
2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol
18 Iss 2 pp 157-172
3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani
(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52
Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017
4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing
model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol
52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313
13 | P a g e
5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend
irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash
241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638
14 | P a g e
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING
21 INTRODUCTION
The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market
to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with
motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research
conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors
affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and
term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock
market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in
mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of
the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio
building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the
study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the
Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective
economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the
direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the
study
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes
2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by
investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a
vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be
invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers
themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit
trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector
2212 Stock Market
15 | P a g e
Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio
and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return
predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)
222 Unit trusts Performance
2221 Rewards
A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao
Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts
possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic
mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported
by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their
investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of
mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a
diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found
that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of
mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these
factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that
independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct
greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence
management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect
creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele
2222 Risk
Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a
manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into
concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund
managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is
because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum
16 | P a g e
strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in
search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the
CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The
same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to
poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior
to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)
2223 Author Advocacy
The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first
investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment
firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research
conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and
the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is
during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis
unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and
supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be
profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers
but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back
seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that
market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore
good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the
contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose
much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver
223 Stock market Performance
2231 Rewards
Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by
Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor
John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-
down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom
up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell
market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this
quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of
opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore
17 | P a g e
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
The study found that BIHL from the sample of listed companies outperformed the others and is the
most profitable stock on the stock exchange BIFM and Stanlib have profitable portfolios which
investors should venture into and are the money market and balanced prudential fund respectively The
study has also found that a number of investors would like to invest in the future but are uncertain
whether to invest their money in a company or leave it in a bank they also seem unaware of fund
managers available in the country
17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
This chapter set out the foundation for the study such that the direction being explored by the
researcher can well be follows It builds up the notion of understanding in terms of the question lsquowhyrsquo
did he begin this study in the first place Chapter two sets out and outlines the past and current
literature studies conducted on investment and this builds up the foundation for the methodology
emphasized in chapter three for which data would be collected regarding the objectives set out in this
chapter Chapter four presents the findings collected and the analysis of which along with the
conclusion is executed in chapter five and six along with the limitations present within the study The
final chapter is a reflection of the journey from this chapter down right to the last chapter
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1 Coffie W Chukwulobelu O (2012) The Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
to Individual Securities on Ghana Stock Exchange in Kojo Menyah Joshua Abor (ed) Finance
and Development in Africa Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies Volume 12 Part
B Emerald Group Publishing Limited pp121 ndash 147 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101108S1479-3563(2012)000012B010
2 Draper P (2006) Unit trust objectives and investor choice Journal of Applied Economics Vol
18 Iss 2 pp 157-172
3 Paulo S (2010) Distributions the UK Companies Act of 2006 and the Miller and Modigliani
(1961) dividend irrelevance argument International Journal of Law and Management Vol 52
Iss 5 pp 369 ndash 382 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011076017
4 Paulo S (2010) The United Kingdoms Companies Act of 2006 and the capital asset pricing
model Attaining the corporate objective International Journal of Law and Management Vol
52 Iss 4 pp253 ndash 264 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431011059313
13 | P a g e
5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend
irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash
241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638
14 | P a g e
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING
21 INTRODUCTION
The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market
to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with
motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research
conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors
affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and
term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock
market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in
mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of
the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio
building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the
study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the
Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective
economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the
direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the
study
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes
2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by
investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a
vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be
invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers
themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit
trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector
2212 Stock Market
15 | P a g e
Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio
and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return
predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)
222 Unit trusts Performance
2221 Rewards
A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao
Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts
possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic
mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported
by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their
investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of
mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a
diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found
that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of
mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these
factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that
independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct
greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence
management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect
creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele
2222 Risk
Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a
manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into
concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund
managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is
because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum
16 | P a g e
strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in
search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the
CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The
same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to
poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior
to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)
2223 Author Advocacy
The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first
investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment
firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research
conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and
the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is
during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis
unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and
supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be
profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers
but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back
seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that
market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore
good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the
contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose
much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver
223 Stock market Performance
2231 Rewards
Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by
Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor
John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-
down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom
up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell
market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this
quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of
opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore
17 | P a g e
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
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Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
5 Paulo S Gale C (2012) The Miller-Modigliani 1961 Ponzi scheme alias ldquodividend
irrelevancerdquo International Journal of Law and Management Vol 54 Iss 3 pp 234 ndash
241Available at httpdxdoiorg10110817542431211228638
14 | P a g e
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING
21 INTRODUCTION
The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market
to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with
motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research
conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors
affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and
term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock
market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in
mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of
the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio
building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the
study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the
Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective
economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the
direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the
study
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes
2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by
investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a
vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be
invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers
themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit
trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector
2212 Stock Market
15 | P a g e
Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio
and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return
predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)
222 Unit trusts Performance
2221 Rewards
A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao
Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts
possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic
mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported
by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their
investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of
mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a
diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found
that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of
mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these
factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that
independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct
greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence
management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect
creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele
2222 Risk
Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a
manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into
concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund
managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is
because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum
16 | P a g e
strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in
search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the
CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The
same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to
poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior
to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)
2223 Author Advocacy
The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first
investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment
firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research
conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and
the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is
during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis
unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and
supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be
profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers
but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back
seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that
market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore
good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the
contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose
much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver
223 Stock market Performance
2231 Rewards
Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by
Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor
John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-
down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom
up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell
market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this
quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of
opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore
17 | P a g e
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT RESEARCH ON PERSONAL INVESTING
21 INTRODUCTION
The aim of this study is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock market
to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities The researcher is therefore with
motive of establishing the two standpoints on these two asset classes relating to current research
conducted on investment in different economies and empirical evidence of performances and factors
affecting those performances To establish a ground of analysis and comparison behind investment and
term earnings with regards to investing in mutual funds known as Unit trusts as opposed to stock
market shares as earnings determine firm value (Consler et al 2011) This is with respect to bearing in
mind which of the two would yield better returns and build better portfolios or what set-up mixture of
the two would work best Furthermore it is with intent to understand the dynamics of portfolio
building with respect to how we can encompass the two asset classes thereby achieving the aim of the
study However though the former and current studies would be highlighted and related to the
Botswana investment environment looking at similar characteristics between the respective
economies Finally a research gap would be outlined on this current literature with respect to the
direction that the researcher would be intending on taking with respect to meeting the objectives of the
study
22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES 221 Classification of the two asset classes
2211 Unit trusts The nature of a unit trust is that of a mutual fund According to Firth (1978) unit trusts are bought by
investors from stock brokers solicitors managers or banks and are grouped together to create a
vehicle known as a mutual fund comprising of other investorsrsquo funds that would then as a group be
invested in the stock exchange or any stock option deemed best by the expert unit managers
themselves A study from 1996 to 2001 by Rudman (2008) in South Africa has revealed that the unit
trust industry is one of the fastest growing areas in the finance sector
2212 Stock Market
15 | P a g e
Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio
and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return
predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)
222 Unit trusts Performance
2221 Rewards
A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao
Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts
possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic
mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported
by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their
investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of
mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a
diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found
that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of
mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these
factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that
independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct
greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence
management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect
creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele
2222 Risk
Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a
manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into
concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund
managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is
because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum
16 | P a g e
strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in
search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the
CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The
same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to
poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior
to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)
2223 Author Advocacy
The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first
investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment
firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research
conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and
the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is
during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis
unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and
supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be
profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers
but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back
seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that
market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore
good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the
contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose
much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver
223 Stock market Performance
2231 Rewards
Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by
Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor
John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-
down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom
up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell
market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this
quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of
opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore
17 | P a g e
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
Shares are found on the stock exchange which Slimane (2012) have found their activities to be integrating and emerging at national and international scale from research conducted between 2000-2009 in Europe and USA Evans Hodder and Hopkins (2014 cited in Finger 1994) provide evidence that past earnings have a predictive ability for future earnings ndashndashand future cash flows
The conception on this research would henceforth be conducted with the idea of the use of portfolio
and investment theories such entailed would be but not limited to the Modigliani and Miller approach
Capital Asset Prising Model (CAPM) international investment diversification and Equity return
predictability (Atanasov and Nitschka 2014)
222 Unit trusts Performance
2221 Rewards
A study conducted from 1989 to 1993 back in Europe over 97 international equity funds by Kao
Cheng and Chan (1998) has suggested that fund managers accountable for international unit trusts
possess good selectivity of profitable options and overall good performance as compared to domestic
mutual funds through decomposing performance into selectivity and market timing This is supported
by with Eun Kolodng and Resnick (1991) as they outline that investors need not restrict their
investment portfolios to domestic choices and attribute the use of portfolio managers in the use of
mutual funds in gaining better returns more so that Tenk (2012) advises that there should be a
diversity in the portfolio so as to aid opportunity for higher returns A study by Tng (2006) has found
that asset allocation investment styles risk and size amongst others influence the performance of
mutual funds and hence fund managers can make informed decisions if they take into account these
factors (Rebello and Wei 2012 Kahn and Lemmon 2016) The study continues to argue that
independent investment firms (non-bank) are likely to have more clientele since they would conduct
greater researches for their investment styles aiming for higher returns which bear higher risks hence
management fees tend to increase as well thus making the portfolio costly and risky this in effect
creates a great obligation by investment firms to provide better returns to retain clientele
2222 Risk
Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) assert that mutual funds categorise their investment styles in a
manner well understood by the investment community (cited in Sharpe 1992) They bring into
concession and object that the downfall of unit trusts lie among strategies or styles employed by fund
managers as they do not exhibit timing abilities for investments (cited in Hendrickson 1984) this is
because they believe unit trusts generally chaise performance of stock options and their optimum
16 | P a g e
strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in
search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the
CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The
same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to
poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior
to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)
2223 Author Advocacy
The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first
investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment
firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research
conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and
the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is
during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis
unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and
supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be
profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers
but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back
seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that
market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore
good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the
contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose
much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver
223 Stock market Performance
2231 Rewards
Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by
Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor
John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-
down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom
up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell
market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this
quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of
opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore
17 | P a g e
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
strategy for investing is known as style switching whereby past performances are used to adjust in
search for market performances Furthermore Brookfield Su and Bangassa (2015) discredit the
CAPM due to its anomalies presented in its applications to which a number of fund managers use The
same stance is presented in evidence by Low (2007) whereby she attributes poor fund performance to
poor timing abilities and their failure to outperform the market to even be performing at a level inferior
to that of the market this even dates back to early research (cited in Jensen 1969 and Sharpe 1966)
2223 Author Advocacy
The author would therefore align with the conception of recommending unit trusts as the first
investment option to venture into based on the findings outlined by Tng (2006) in that investment
firms take risks that have proven to be worthwhile financially this is evidenced by his research
conducted in Singapore during 1997 to 2003 more so that unit trusts are a tax-free form of income and
the trustee is guaranteed of the principal (Dunnan 1989) The author does note though that this is
during a period when the market was still highly penetrable and is before the global economic crisis
unlike now (2016) where some companies are still recuperating This though is corroborated and
supported by Kao et al (1998) as well in evidence that foreign unit trusts investments proved to be
profitable for the portfolio and that there is poor evidence that fund managers are poor market timers
but the author would question the reliability of these finding since they in particular date back
seventeen years past though there has not been any study to contend this The author apprehends that
market conditions and changes in the global market has an impact on fund performances therefore
good selectivity and timing become the foremost determinants to gain sufficient returns though on the
contrary these studies were conducted in a well-diversified economy (Singapore) which would pose
much of a challenge incorporating in Botswana which has mining as its main economic driver
223 Stock market Performance
2231 Rewards
Studies conducted in the UK (Oxford and Cambridge college) from the 1921-1946 period by
Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) contends and makes note of the literature by a legend investor
John Maynard Keynes (Keynes 1936) they outline that the first investment philosophy he used top-
down proved to underperform whereby he used monetary and economic indicators instead of a bottom
up approach Upon revision of this technique he acknowledged that it would be essential to sell
market leaders on a falling market and buying on a rising market (Dequech 2011) The author sees this
quite feasible and opportunistic to prevent loses when you see them rising up and taking advantage of
opportunities of equity appreciation as the market becomes penetrable for thus Furthermore
17 | P a g e
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
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Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
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26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
Hammami (2013) in essence supports this with an extension to outline lsquomomentum investingrsquo across
economic states whereby demand is for lsquorecent winnersrsquo while lsquorecent losersrsquo are sold though this has
been found to cause market inefficiency A study by Merikas and Merika (2006) attributed economic
instruments and variables to stock prices and stock returns they go on further and expand the scope in
the sense that booming or growing economies would have reducing stock prices and weak economies
having increased stock prices they set aside inflation though which seems to have a positive impact on
the variables of stock returns This study would suggest that stock returns have a potential to become
higher and thus inducing aggregate investment
2232 Risk
In a study from 1976 to 2010 by Blazenko and Fu (2013) it was found that profitability increases
returns to a greater extent for value firms or companies that seem to be priced low relative to its
fundamentals dividends earnings sales and so forth The same is true expect for the extent of which
returns accumulate for growth firms though that seem to be growing at a rapid pace compared to its
peers The author finds the study to be ambiguous as was conducted over sampled companies globally
thus economic perspectives cannot be scrutinized
2233 Author Advocacy
The author acknowledges that there are different perceptions about individual stock options available
on a stock exchange especially for a developing one like the Botswana Stock Exchange but thus far
shares seem to be more profitable in terms of findings and studies make in terms of portfolio building
but for the short term The author continues to apprehend that the study by Chambers Dimson and Foo
(2015) was ideal in that it used monetary and economic indicators for appraising investment
performance they based this around certain economic assumptions as was conducted in the UK which
is of an high class economy with a high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vast economic activity as
compared to the Botswana economy which of recent is performing at a declining GDP
23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING231 Investment Theories
2311 Theory of International Diversification
A study by Najeeb Bacha and Masih (2015) suggests that investing in international stock markets is of
crucial importance in creating a well-diversified portfolio with low risk for the respective investors
(cited in Dajcman et al 2012) They outline that the reasoning around this is because there is a low
correlation amongst cross boarder markets hence the risk of loss is relatively low They do dispute
18 | P a g e
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
though that empirical evidence has shown mixed results for such theories though there is a
reconciliation to this as literature goes on to identify that there is an evolving interdependence across
markets (cited in Engle 2002) The author would see fit henceforth that such portfolios would work
best when managed by a fund manager whom observes and works best around this financial
information used for investing hence it would not favour the individual investor who manages their
own portfolio unless adequately know-ledged on investment management This study was conducted
in Malaysia in 2015 over investors who allocate their investments in international markets and has
found it to be more profitable to invest in developed markets such as those in Europe (Germany
United Kingdom) than emerging markets such as those in East-Asian (China Japan Korea)
Furthermore this is all dependent upon the holding period of those respective stocks (Najeeb Bacha
and Masih 2015)
2312 Equity Return Predictability
Johannes Korteweg and Polson (2014) advocate for the equity return predictability as they outline that
excess returns are predictable through the use of accounting ratios such as dividend earnings and yield
earnings per share and other financial indicators (cited in Lettau and Ludvigson 2001) The pride of
their advocacy is derived from that it has rarely been debated and the evidence is so strong and
important that the predictability is used by investors when making portfolio decisions In 2008 though
this theory was challenged by Goyal and Welch (2008) in that while evidence is there of predictability
it is so weak and of no practical use to investors To reconcile this Johannes Korteweg and Polson
(2014) support their theory in that sensible features have to be incorporated in their optimal portfolio
constructions such as accounting for time-varying volatility and estimated risk and not just take it from
the simple perceptive without incorporating the economic aspects of investing To support this Maio
and Santa-Clara (2015) have provided Empherical evidence that the predictability of dividend yields is
associated with future returns and dividend growth
232 Investor PerceptionsThe past decades have been showcasing the convergence of psychological biases towards financial
markets overconfidence has been attributed to propel aggressive investing by individuals and fund
managers hence creating high risk with low net returns (Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015) They suggest
overconfidence to be a key factor for financial anomalies such as great loses made on investing though
not the only phenomenon worth considering Furthermore emphasis is placed upon unprofitable
active trading and return predictability being factors agreed upon by advocates of the efficient market
hypothesis in that portfolios can be constructed for high returns and low volatility based on thus
19 | P a g e
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
(Daniel and Hirshleifer 2015 Fama and French 1993 Fama and French 2015 Johannes et al 2014)
Bigda and Tepper (2016) emphasise that it is important to never panic in a market storm because
selling securities on a declining performance often leads to investor remorse They highlight actively
managed equity funds and US stocks to merit into investor portfolios and that one should always
appraise profitable stock hence the author would draw attention to Najeeb et al (2015) since they
aforementioned of international diversification to which a Motswana investor could venture into for
wealth creation
233 Portfolio Building
Investors look for companies or investment opportunities that will yield great returns A study from the
Nairobi Stock Exchange by Waweru (2010) outlines that dividend payments are affected by those
current yearsrsquo retained earnings and income more so that dividend yields affect stock prices which in
turn reflects greatly on the investorsrsquo portfolio (Cochrane 2014) She further emphasises that managers
usually pay out dividend when they have reason to believe the shareholders equities have gained
earnings per share which again we can attribute well for the portfolio owner The author does
appreciate though that profit over portfolios cannot just be predicted from the stock options or
securities (Black and Scholes 1973 Walkshausl and Lobe 2015)
A ten year study conducted in Malaysia by Taib and Isa (2007) found the average performance of unit
trust to be below market performance and this is similar to the findings in Low (2007) contrary to this
though they applaud one form of unit trust known as bond funds which seemed to outperform the
market over and above since their earnings can be attributed to high interest rates kept during the crisis
period The empirical findings from these two studies showcase that both Shares and Unit trusts can be
profitable for any investor so it would just have to be a matter of which options to venture into thus
inducing the questioning of this research to explore possible ways in order to build profitable
portfolios The lognormal model being an example for portfolio selection to discriminate between
stocks likely to perform well and otherwise (Cordis 2014 DeMiguel et al 2013)
The study aforementioned by Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) sets a profound understanding to a
portfolio guide with regards to investing on the stock exchange to which findings can be taken up by
individual investors whom manage their own portfolios and investment firms that manage on behalf of
their clientele to select stock options at opportunistic timings They initially emphasised the technique
of selling value stock on a declining market and buying on a rising market and this was expatriated in
length by Keynes (1936) Such examples would include diversifying the investment portfolio by
having a combination of ordinary shares and preference shares using the stockrsquos instristic value for
20 | P a g e
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
investment strategies and this is underpinned by asset prising models to which the author would align
with to certain extends (Carhart 1997 Calvet and Sodini 2014) This is a UK study contextualising
this to the Botswana pre-text multiple companies on the Botswana Stock Exchange often have prices
fluctuating for example Choppies PLC investors can capitalise on the price movement as mentioned
by this current study while Companies like Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited PLC can be bought
for the sole reason of capital appreciation Empherical findings also outlined that institutional fund
managers also followed this lead and approaches and have proven to be profitable (Chambers Dimson
and Foo 2015) Furthermore other opportunities present themselves once like whereby companies
venture into an Initial Public Offering (IPO) such as the case setting of Botswana Telecommunications
Limited (BTCL) whereby the trade offer price would be trading at a discount hence free capital
appreciation is handed on a silver platter
Ryan (2015) puts emphasis greatly on the reliance of performance analysis either individually or by an
independent party during the decision making process for investing and that it should be practical
through the use of publicly available information on top ranked investment firms He appreciates that
investors are different in that some are risk takers some risk averters and neutral hence value can be
placed upon performance behaviour and risk-adjusted performance this is usually greatly emphasised
by fund managers and there would obviously be another portfolio which can be considered naiumlve due
to the high risk it possesses though the portfolio can yield the highest returns The author would
therefore see fit that selection of portfolios at this stance should be determined by analysis of the
portfolio and professional judgement
24 CONCLUSIONPortfolio building is a critical area which demands a great deal of attention to detail with respect to
looking for opportunities of wealth as and when they present themselves The research by Tng (2006)
and Kao et al (1998) have brought about the significance of having an expert who devotes their time to
chasing earnings opportunities when they arise For this reason the author concluded it would be best
to choose unit trusts as the first option given mutually exclusive events when capital is limited as the
diversity of the investment unit trusts undergo expands into future investment options such as
property stock options forex trading and even the global market On the other hand though the stock
market has a very competitive stance with regard to wealth creation in that two forms of earnings are
presented forth for the investment community those of which being dividend payments and capital
21 | P a g e
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
appreciation of shares and bonds The research by Waweru (2010) and Taib and Isa (2007) has well
commended that both unit trusts and the stock market can be profitable for any investor though the
emphasis is greatly placed upon short-term investing Henceforth investors need to understand future
prospects of companies along with the industry where they are placing their investment so they
understand the dynamics of where their money is being run
25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT
EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
Unit trusts are essential for investors whom seek to remain passive in their investment and would
prefer one to manage on their behalf based mostly on the study by Tng (2006) The author does note
though that returns on investments are not as significant as those one would yield had they invested in
the stock market which is subject to capital appreciation and dividend payments subject to discression
by the respective company shareholders though it would be of greater risk comparatively Since there
is a correlation between high risks and high returns one would conclude it would be worthwhile to
manage onersquos own portfolio based on the findings of Hammami (2013) The silence that the author has
identified though from above is that with respect to the current literature self-management of
portfolios would work best for investors who are highly active and buy and sell within the short-term
and hence does not cater for long term investments with optimum and sufficient returns with respect to
the two asset vehicle at hand It contradicts though that the benefits of unit trusts are well commended
more so that a specialist is an agent but investors need also take charge of their investments though at
times information interpretation is a hustle hence the research question becomes lsquowhat investment
structure mix of the two asset classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellip
Ceteris Paribasrsquo The gap the author outlines though is that majority of these studies are conducted in
developed economies though of very recent dating would the investment portfolio suffice given the
slow economic activities of Botswana and high unemployment rates standing at 178 (Honde and
Abraha 2015)
26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The author appreciates that the idea of investing is that firstly potential and current investors must not
be misconceived into thinking saving is investing investing would involve the proactive use of money
to make money while diversifying your income and inducing financial independency hence it became
fundamental that this research underpins the questioning that what investment structure mix of the two
22 | P a g e
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
aforementioned asset classes would work best to yield high returns bearing in mind long-term
investment
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
31 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to outline the methodology which would aid the author in conducting
the research and obtaining sufficient findings to decipher the research aim Saunders Lewis and
Thornhill (2012) outline that methodology is a plan and strategy of the go about of obtaining answers
for the research question outlined such that the objectives of the study can be underpinned and hence
achieving the research aim The methodology of this research will be focused around six sections of
research that of which being the research philosophy research approach research design sampling
criteria data collection instrument and procedures of data collection and analysis These methods will
ensure that the most suitable research approach is being followed The research itself will be through
the guide of a research onion outlined by Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012) as a framework that
provides a systematic process of research and is shown in figure 31 below The main sources of
information for this research are primary data as well as secondary data on the other hand though
quantitative data as well will be used in aiding the research from company publications The chapter
would conclude by mentioning the ethical considerations made during the course of the study as well
as limitations incurred that hinder the sufficient conclusion of the research aim
23 | P a g e
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
Figure 1- Research onion Source Saunders Lewis and Thornhill (2012)
32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
The chosen philosophy for this research is that of Pragmatism which Saunders et al (2012) outline that
there are many different ways of interpreting the world every aspect can be very subjective and there
is no one method that could give an entire picture of one thing Research philosophy is outlined by
Neville (2007) as a form of understanding and accepting that research is not neutral but rather a
reflection of the researcherrsquos different attributes like attitude values assumptions personal interests
and so forth The author would therefore conclude that research philosophy forms the foundation for
the research approach as a guide towards implementation collection and interpretation
Adoption of the pragmatism conceives from appreciating the interpretivist stance conclusive of the
objective to construct an investment portfolio encompassing the two asset classes to which the use of
subjective interpretations becomes vital Furthermore the positivist is also acknowledged as facts
constructed from examining profitability and earnings potential of the asset classes this in turn serves
to fit best of the midpoint being the pragmatist to appreciate both cohesions
33 RESEARCH APPROACH
The use of the Pragmatist philosophy embedded for this research contemplates the author to choose
the Abductive approach throughout this research which Saunders et al (2012 pg 145) outline to be one
where ldquoknown premises are used to generate testable conclusionsrdquo It is well appreciated from the
concessions made by use of the positivist and interpretivist stances that the deductive and inductive
approaches are appreciated respectively for the application in examining earnings thus testing theories
24 | P a g e
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
and constructing profitable portfolios thereby creating a hypothesis which can be well tested to see
effectiveness (Goddard and Melville 2004 Lodico et al 2010) This allows the use of both qualitative
and quantitative analysis for drawing out more reasoned conclusions at the end of the study hence this
being related to the pragmatist (Denscombe 2007) In turn the two serve well to the Abductive
approach since we are appreciating interactions between the specific and the general more so that risk
attitudes are recognized when dealing with investment from the investorsrsquo point of view
34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
The most prevailing and pre-dominant research design is a case study which Saunders et al (2012) see
fit to satisfy aims with an understanding of the 24 dynamics present focus on a single setting with the
highlight of an empirical investigation (Yin 2003) This becomes relevant for our objectives to be open
minded about earnings for both unit trusts and stock market since the aim is to evaluate an investment
portfolio which would enable investors to earn more on their investments in wealth creation using the
two asset classes The researcher would also incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis through
descriptive surveying hence the positivist element in the research to aid the study with respect to the
examination the influences and interrelations to market investment such that the prospected portfolio
would be corroborated by findings from such data (Neville 2007)
35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
Tools that are used to collect data in the field primarily are known as research methods and a number
of them can be used together to reach one conclusion in research (Dawson 2009)
Table 1- Research methods
Objective
Participants (sample)
Data Collection Method
Reason for choice of method
What is to be measured
Population Size
Sample Size
Sample Criteria
Data CollectionDate
1
Botswana Stock
Exchange listed
companies
Archival research
Participants can
add more information in a
quantitative form
of answers
Return on
investments and
earnings per share
Listed compani
es amp Fund
Managers
6
Stratified and
convenient
19-01-2016
25 | P a g e
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
2
Investors through stock
brokers
Open and closed
Questionnaire
Participants can
add more information in a
descriptive form
of answers
Risk tolerance
levels and
attitudes
Investors stock brokers
30 Stratified 30-01-2016
3
Botswana stock
exchange and fund managers
Semi-structured interview
Helps the researche
r to receive an open
wide range of response
s
An ideal model for
the investme
nt structure
mix
Regulatory body and fund manager
s
2Convenient and
stratified
21-01-2016
351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
Goddard and Melville (2007) outlines that sampling involves choosing a few to represent the whole
population There are multiple industries on the stock exchange which are different in terms of their
earnings capacity thus FNBB Standard Chartered Sefalana and BIHL will be used respectively and
are chosen at random within the class of large corporations and market capitalisations Botswana
Investment Fund Managers (BIFM) and Stanlib as fund specialists would be analysed since they have
availed unit trusts BIFM and Botswana Stock Exchange as regulators are best suited to assist
construct portfolios thus convenient sampling is used Customers from stock brokers would also be
used to assist in getting customer perceptions on risks against investing Selected companies will be
chosen from those availing unit trusts and those with public traded shares in issue making up 2 and 4
respectively this is so as to analyse their earnings potential of the two asset classes based on past
performance 15 participants would also be chosen from an investor pool of an unknown population
during the conduction of the research this would be a sample from customers of stock brokers listed
within the Botswana Stock Exchange and another 15 from the general public of potential investors
making a total of 30 Finally the regulatory body would be best suited for evaluating an investment
portfolio and there is only one within the country along it would be a fund manager as part of the
sample from another independent firm
26 | P a g e
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
The researcher chose to use convenient sampling as a non-probability sampling technique to make the
study more comprehendible and relatable with the perception that fund specialists have experience and
skills ideal to back up theories on investment and assist in construction of investment portfolios
(Oliver 2006) Stratified sampling on the other hand as a probability sampling technique would also be
used to avoid being biased and appreciate that participants are likely to have different characteristics
thus assemble and sample according to their different classes (Neville 2007) This is efficient for
selecting the companies listed on the stock exchange for the purposes of analysing their earnings
performance Stratified sampling is best appropriate for the population of participants aiding on
information for risk attitudes and investment influence such that wersquod be able to depute findings and
comprehend on the objectives of the study
352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
Goddard and Melville (2007) clearly outline that any tool or device used for measuring variables in a
research are called instruments This research encompasses both qualitative and quantitative analysis
and approach generally hence multiple instruments are used that of which being a questionnaire for
which is outlined to be a set of questions made to be adequate enough to gather data for the objective
of the study with multiple tick boxes as outlined by Fisher (2010) Secondly an interview which is a
set of questions being asked to a participant in person such that sufficient information is obtained and
then lastly archival research which involved meddling through vast data from records and archives
(Goddard and Melville 2007 Fisher 2010)
Open and closed questionnaire to obtain sufficient information on the attitudes of investors and
influences towards them investing questionnaires though sometimes limit the discussion of topics but
being the pragmatist with an abductive approach it becomes essential that facts and subjective
meanings to obtain specific and general views to draw conclusions (Beiske 2007) Interviews are to be
used to ensure adequate information is obtained from fund specialists in fund management companies
and stock regulators on building of profitable portfolios so as to build us discussion and interact with
the theories aforementioned as test them this would be through the use of a voice recording session
Archival research would also be used for obtaining annual reports to be used to analyse profitability of
the two asset classes
353 Data collection procedure
Questionnaires are sent out to selected participants from the unknown pool of the population of the
investors under stock brokers The construction of the questionnaire is based on knowledge acquired
through reading journals on investment and wealth creation along with portfolio company
27 | P a g e
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
prospectuses so as to have a substantiated questionnaire An interview as well would be held with 2
participants so as to have an open discussion about portfolio building centred around theories on
investing A voice recording of the interview would thereafter be transcribed (verbatim) such that
analysis can be placed upon Information on these data instruments is in light of which factors and to
what magnitude influence selection of stock and investment choices along with what best suits would
work best which respect to how best to maximise individual wealth For the purposes of quantitative
analysis records and financial statements from the stock exchange website would be used along with
those from fund managers to analyse past performance for earnings tracking
354 Data analysis procedure
Post examining the earnings of the two asset classes aforementioned their analysis would be that of
descriptive analysis as it gives us a representation of what the data looks like to which measures of
central tendency like the mean and measures of dispersion like the standard deviation and variance
analysis would be used Furthermore the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software
would also be used to assist in analysis and finally presentation through the use of a line graph would
then follow this This is for the purpose of outlining the pros and cons of investing in the two asset
classes individually and respectively
Inferential analysis involving having to draw up conclusions about a population based on their data
such that the characteristics outlined would represent the whole population (Saunders et al 2012) is to
be used for addressing the objective which determines investor perceptions towards the asset classes
Groups would be compared for significant differences through the use of T-Tests identifying groups
of similar cases through use of cluster analysis and finally identify significant relationships between
variables by use of Pearson correlation (Greener 2007 Dawson 2009) This helps aid the exploration
of the direction investors must follow in order to build their wealth and one way Anova as well for
judging the significant of means in a set (Kothari 2011)
Constructing and prospecting a profitable portfolio for wealth creation through finally evaluating with
the aid of an interview would hold for a qualitative analysis to which thematic analysis would fit best
through simultaneously displaying and reducing it thereafter coding since interviews are subject to
interpretations that may be different from one reader to another Data is to be described classified and
then connecting it so as to use themes embedded in the instruments and questions that would be used
for drawing conclusions The downside of any qualitative report is the fact that it is time consuming
and participants can be too busy for any interview hence frustrating the researcher and can be costly if
for example one hired a transcriber and certain points can be missed but in turn it helps to aid your
28 | P a g e
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
analysis more so if manual transcribing is involved since one would feel close to their data The idea
behind this is to obtain and evaluate information from specialist or practitioners of how best to mix
investments and how to formulate portfolios that would earn profits
355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to
ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
The purpose of reliability is to ensure credibility of the data collected and the findings could then be
used to make reasonable conclusions (Goddard and Melville 2007) The SPSS software was used to
test the reliability of the questionnaire for the quantitative analysis using a reliability test lsquoCronbachrsquos
Alpharsquo on dummy data and the results are as follows
Table 2-SPSS reliability test
Case Processing Summary
N Cases Valid 20 1000
0 00Total 20 1000
Reliability Statistics
Cronbachs Alpha N of Items
724 25
Excludeda
The table above shows the reliability of the questionnaire as a data collection instrument to be very
good
To ensure trustworthiness in the data collected use of companies listed on the stock exchange that are
governed by laws and regulations for the issue of financial statements as such audited financial
results would be used when conducting the archival research Interviews are subject to human
productivity thus it would be best suited that the interview be conducted in the morning where prompt
information and ideas are given and interactive discussions are fruitful Furthermore it becomes
essential that the interview be done with someone of managerial level whom understands the strategic
role of the company in the industry and the economic role they play at national level thus reasoningrsquos
are robust Lastly questionnaires are subject to human perceptions and trustworthy of the data would
come from insuring participants are made well aware of confidentiality of their data thus the whole
research in turn bears fruit and is able to achieve its aims and objectives
29 | P a g e
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The researcher would be accountable for data collected from participants by ensuring it is kept in a
locked closet and passwords are placed to guard softcopy data The study would also be conducted in
such a way that it does not harm the participants personally or at the work place The subsequent
aspects relating to ethical considerations made in light to the respective research at hand are fully
emphasised in appendix 4
37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
Being frank time does not ever favour anybody like in any other research which constraints the
availability of a number of resources especially for data collection to which otherwise would have
added a great deal of value towards apprehending the study
Some participants just did not answer the questionnaires though they had consented to participation
reason being the timing of this research was bad on their part being that it was during the IPO of
BTCL to which a lot of stock brokers and investors were running around with it hence some were not
able to come around to responding to the questionnaire
One of the participants was of a company that was currently implementing a strategy hence the use of
an interview for that individual went contrary to their busy schedule and hence an open ended
questionnaire was deemed more appropriate
With relation to the quantitative analysis of listed companiesrsquo earnings per share over a ten year
period some data of past years was not available and for some which were available the ratios were as
at a time prior to the companies listing on the BSE regardless of them being audited hence their
analysis would be on a proviso basis
38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
The researcher initially wanted to rely on a single-case setting of obtaining data from one source from
the stock regulator to which it would have seemed biased though we only have one stock exchange in
our economy hence the need to add another participants from an independent firm dealing with
investment hence their contribution would be conclusive see as though we only have a very few
number of fund managers in the country and one stock exchange
The use of the EPS ratio for analyzing performance of listed companies is simply because the EPS
ratio (IAS 33) is the only approved ratio so far as the International Accounting Standards are
concerned for analyzing and presenting performance to current and prospective investors
30 | P a g e
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has highlighted and expatriated in length the angle to be adopted by the researcher in
collecting information with relation to the methodology The transition henceforth post collecting the
data into chapter four would be to present the data in a well comprehendible manner
31 | P a g e
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
CHAPTER 4
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
41 INTRODUCTION
This chapter puts on consolidation the findings from the data that is now in hand after being gathered
externally The presentation of which is such that it is in line to the objectives set out for the purposes
of this research It entails both qualitative and quantitative aspects as already prehemted and the
analysis of which shall be through inferential basis and the SPSS software respectively
42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1 To examine the profitability and earnings potential of investing in unit trusts and stock market
2 To determine and scrutinize perceptions of investors against the two asset classes
3 To construct and prospect an investment structure mix pertaining to the two asset classes
4 To recommend models or theories to build profitable portfolios using unit trusts and stock
market
43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
The researcher adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods of research hence the analysis of
both would be inherent respectively The former would involve the use of archival research and study
so as to use past studies to emphasise current findings and or extend the knowledge outlined The latter
would involve the use of the statistics software SPSS and Microsoft excel Emphasis too is extended
by the use of measures of central tendency dispersion and frequency distributions
44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
Table 3- Background data
Statistics
How old are
you
Which level of
educations have
you attained
NValid 29 29
Missing 0 0
Mode 2000 500
Minimum 1800 100
Maximum 4900 600
32 | P a g e
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
Table 3 above shows that from the sampled set of participants the vast majority of them are of the age
of 20 with the oldest being 49 and the youngest being 18
Table 4- Education level
Which level of educations have you attained
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
University degree in Finance 9 310 310 310
Diploma in Business Studies 1 34 34 345
Other academic training 14 483 483 828
Other please specify 5 172 172 1000
Total 29 1000 1000
Table 5 above indicates that the vast majority of the participants are qualified in other academic
training followed by those with a University degree in finance
45 MAJOR FINDINGS
451 Objective 1
4511 ndash Stock market Performance
Table 5- Earnings Per Share Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
The sampled companies are analysed based on the earnings per share trends since it is the only
accounting ratio internationally recognised by accounting standards (IAS 33) Table 3 above show that
the EPS of BIHL had the highest average as compared to the other three sampled and this can well be
attributed to the general increase in revenues (25 revenue) and premiums as well as investments
(106) while only incurring a slight increase in costs (13) hence this can be concluded to translate
to good management following strategies outlined to which would be an attribute deceived well
desirable by investors (BIHL 2015) On the contrary though FNBB shows to have the lowest average
comparatively and performing as 18 less for profit after tax in 2015 as compared to prior year The
33 | P a g e
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
performance can be well attributed to a 64 increase in impairment of advances and 43 increase in
interest expenses though only recording a 4 increase in revenue this translates in the stock now
being attractive enough as there is an indications is poor management or poor market hence leading to
such poor performance (FNBB 2015)
Sefalana PLC has a coefficient of variation of 5171 with a dispersion point of 2139t apprehending a
number of variations in the EPS indicating an aggressive stock which responds highly to the market
hence the higher market risk attached to this comprehends well to an expectation of a higher return to
this particular stock Contrary to this though is FNBB recording the lowest coefficient of variation of
3353 with a dispersion point of 660t indicating that performance of earnings is more stable
comparatively though it is lowest this translates to being sceptical about the security as the required
return from it since the risk is lower would justifiably be lower as well
3611 ndash Unit Trust Performance
a Money Market Portfolio
The money market fund is one which is generally classified as low risk and most liquid such that
investor can call on their monies as and when they require them
The first fund from the sampled companies is that of Stanlib which had a portfolio size of P2 84368m
with monthly income streams This money market fund returned 134 in the fourth quarter of 2015
hence outperforming its benchmark by 118 basis points though interest rates were quite low with
inflation at 31 by December this means that the pricing in fixed deposits and other money market
instruments remains depressed more so that the Transport sector had a hard hit as petroleum prices
fell Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana target of 3-6 hence risks that come
about would be increases in utility bills alcohol levy and food prices due to prevailing droughts
BIFM Unit Trust Pula Money Market Fund is yet another local trust that invests in low risk assets so
as to manage short term cash needs It has a fund size of P347 269 977 with income distribution
streams that occur monthly The fund returned 174 in the second quarter of 2015 outperforming its
benchmark (024) by a 150 basis points and this has been an occurring trend since inception which
can be well attributed to successful negotiations of better rates for fixed deposits and short term
investments that are liquid though offer higher returns comparatively and no major changes have
occurred since then Monetary policies have been loosened hence around P22bn has been into the
domestic economy hence creating a hopeful outlook for the fund
b Balanced Prudential fund
This type of fund specifically is less liquid and calls of a moderate risk profile as ideally is created for
the purposes of the medium to long term investment
34 | P a g e
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
Stanlib Managed Prudential fund has a size of P579 600 000 which in an increase from the prior
quarter The fund gained by 657 compared to the 505 target due to global equities that reversed
the losses that were incurred in the third quarter Factors that were affecting this fund were the
devaluation of the Yuan strengthening USD expectations of increases in US interest rates and a
collapse in commodity prices due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy Locally though the
downfall was due to lower performances by the Domestic Companies Index and decreasing interest
from fixed securities
On the contrary BIFM Balanced Prudential Fund assembled a fund size of P54 967 454 investing in
local and offshore equities hence returning 215 compared to 205 benchmark aided by strong
world equity stock selection Local performance of the fund is well due to investments in companies
like Letshego Choppies and Wilderness though the fund marginally underperformed Fund holdings in
the United Kingdom France and Netherlands aided the fundsrsquo performance and this translates further
for both local and global bonds which outperformed and underperformed their targets respectively
452 Objective 2
The statistical analysis of the questionnaires was conducted though the SPSS software as
aforementioned The results as such are presented in the following table
Table 6- Questionnaire findings
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation
How often do you invest 29 100 500 33448 114255
How often do you encounter
problems when investing29 100 500 30345 129512
Would you like to invest in a
company in the future29 400 500 49310 25788
Would you rather opt to
invest in a company than
keep your money in a bank
account
29 100 500 40345 145118
How often do you review
published company results29 100 500 35172 121363
Do you know of Fund
managers available in
Botswana
29 100 500 35172 140460
35 | P a g e
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
Have you invested in Unit
trusts before29 100 500 25862 182282
Would you like constant
information about your
investment
29 300 500 47931 49130
Are foreign investments
financially worth it29 300 500 43793 82001
Would you prefer an agent
to manage your portfolio29 100 500 36207 139933
An above-average rise in
market price accompanied
by an increase in turnover
29 200 500 38621 95335
A market price that has
stabilised at a level
significantly lower than its
all-time high
29 100 500 34138 121059
Growing expectations
concerning higher dividends29 100 500 41034 114470
The raising of corporate
earnings estimates by
analysts
29 200 500 40345 90565
Observed purchases by
other institutional investors29 100 500 34138 105279
Corporate announcements
and statements that are
perceived as being positive
29 100 500 39655 108505
A low valuation on a cross-
market or cross-sector
comparison based on profit
expectations for the coming
financial years
29 100 500 31724 125553
Technical analysis of price
trends price formation and
turnover trends
29 200 500 43103 96745
Fundamental analysis based
on forecast factors29 100 500 40000 88641
A portfolio optimisation
approach based on
estimated yields and
covariancersquos
29 100 500 37241 122172
Trading costs such as bid-
offer spread29 100 500 40345 129512
Market capitalisation 29 200 500 42759 88223
36 | P a g e
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
Frequent reports and
availability of independent
analystsrsquo estimates
29 100 500 41724 96618
Previous corporate
development as well as
performance on stock
market
29 300 500 45862 62776
Availability of tradable
derivatives for transactions
or as a source of additional
information
29 100 500 34828 112188
Valid N (listwise) 29
The findings indicate that on average the participants are neutral in investing with some often and some not often as much with relatively high variations around this and a number of them encounter problems when investing though the variations are spread as well Almost all participants would like to invest in a company in the future and there are close to zero variations on this and the same investors seem to be keen to invest their money in a company than just keep it in a bank and on average some investors review published company results and there are vast variations on this A fair number of participants know of fund managers available in Botswana though a number of them have not invested in unit trusts before with high variations moreover that the participants would like to receive information about their investments constantly and most are not centred here They further agree with financial viability of foreign investments which would relate with only a fair number of participants whom would prefer an agent to manage their portfolio whilst some prefer being independent
Share price and revenue trends are used as primary determiners for inclusion into portfolios by the average participants though disparities are high relatively Optimising returns minimising costs and observing the market capitalization are considered important for selecting stocks while previous corporate development is considered of importance as well
In light of the above the highest average from all the variables are ones which states lsquowould you like to invest in a company in the futurersquo with an average of 493 with low variations and it makes sense because the next higher average descending is for the variable which states lsquoWould you like constant information about your investmentrsquo with 47 and variations are lower and the use of previous corporate developments as well as stock market performance with an average of 45
37 | P a g e
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
Table 7- Pearson Correlation 1
Have you invested in Unit trusts before
How often do you invest
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
500
006
Table 7 above outlines the relations between two variables picked out as the relationships between the two outstood The strength of association between how often one invests over if they have invested in unit trusts is relatively high and positive (0500) Also we can say that 25 (05002) of the variation in investment patterns is explained whether they invested in unit trusts before
Table 8- Pearson correlation 2
Which level of educations have you attained
Observed purchases by other institutional investors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-557
002
Coincidentally the two variables that interest the author came out to have a strong negative relationship The interpretation being that with lower levels of education would you find investors observing other institutional investors for selecting stock
Table 9- Pearson correlation 3
Market capitalisation
How old are you Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
-483
008
Table 9 above reflects a negative correlation as well to say that with the lower age group would they use a figure for market capitalisation found on annual statements for selection of stock
38 | P a g e
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
Table 10- Pearson correlation 4
How often do you review published company results
Fundamental analysis based on forecast factors
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
498
006
Table 10 above reflects a positive relationship translating that using fundamental analysis based on projections would result in increase of reviewing published company results
Table 11- Pearson correlation 5
A portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
Frequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Pearson Correlation
Sig (2-tailed)
542
002
Table 11 above reflects a strong positive relationship translating that reliance on frequent reports and independent analystrsquos results in basing on estimated yields for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio
Table 12- Anova regression analysis
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig
1
Regression 1432 1 1432 1097 304b
Residual 35257 27 1306
Total 36690 28
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
b Predictors (Constant) Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig
B Std Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4689 598 7844 000
Would you prefer an agent to
manage your portfolio-162 154 -198 -1047 304
a Dependent Variable Growing expectations concerning higher dividends
39 | P a g e
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
The unstandardized coefficients are the regression coefficients The equation given is
Growing expectations concerning higher dividends= 4689 - 0162(Would you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio)
The regression coefficient is the change in response per unit change in the independent variable In this
instance using growing expectations concerning higher dividends as a factor for inclusion of stock
differs 0162 units for the non-preference of having an agent manage their portfolio which indicates
that the graph if plotted would be negative The standard errors are that of the regression coefficients
and can be used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals The standardized
coefficient is just what the regression coefficient would be if fitted to standardized data but it is not
important for this data
453 Objective 3
The ideal portfolio that is found to be more sound and conclusive is one emphasised as thus follows In
an ideal world we would be given a set of two investors one of which prefers to have an agent manage
their portfolio on their behalf and the other who would rather opt to manage their own portfolio The
former would rather be better off investing in a company such as BIFM for a money market portfolio
given that they prefer liquid investments and they are risk averse if on the other hand their risk
appetite is tolerable then they would be secured with a balanced prudential fund from Stanlib which
returns though can be realised in the longer term unlike the money market The latter though who
would rather opt to manage their own portfolios are better of carefully strategizing their investment
ventures Research by Dequech (2011) and Hammami (2013) as priory aforementioned has outlined
the strategy of investing in rising markets and selling in declining markets basing on the trend of past
recent performance Because of this concession it can be applied in practice in that whether an
individual investor or a fund manager can take up to increase the wealth of their portfolio When
looking at the Botswana Stock Exchange profitable stock is selected on the basis of past company
performances corporate government ethics future prospects and ratings by independent firms in light
of this from the list of sampled companies BIHL is the most profitable which can create wealth for
investors so it would definitely be a buy choice Venture capital companies such as Lucara and
Magnum as well pose a great opportunity in that they explore for natural resources like for example
how Lucara mine found the lsquoSedi Laakarsquo diamond which immediately raised the share price of the
company by more than 1000 times and the fate can well be trusted for a company such as Magnum to
which if they found the natural resources they seek it would raise their value by that much Further
emphasis is usually placed around IPOrsquos that occur locally of recent two occurred being the BTCL
40 | P a g e
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
and the Far Property Company to which they are usually sold at a discount thereby creating a window
of opportunity for capital appreciation both in the short term and medium term
46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS Explanations and implications of the above findings is explained here though greater emphasis is
stressed in length through chapter 5 which would then corroborate the findings together
A good number of the participants are qualified in finance hence understand the dynamics of investing
while the vast majority are skilled in other academic training hence have a more sound idea about their
respective preferred stocks The participants are very keen on investing in the future and would very
much like to invest their monies in a company than retain it in a bank The vast number of them would
like constant information about their investment but a few average number have invested in unit trusts
before though they seem uncertain as to having an agent manage their portfolio and the fruitful
benefits of foreign investments are known This becomes the basis of the research in that the author
aims to bridge this gap of information asymmetry hence giving investors power to make independent
decisions about the type of investments they would prefer
The analysis of unit trusts has proven profitable for both companies sampled in that the objectives
they set out of investing in local equities as well as offshore assets has brought about excellent returns
as highlighted in the above pretenses to the extent of surpassing their company targets The same can
be attributed for stocks on the exchange as some perform really well
Taking into perspective the other measures presented forth by the statistical software the significant
correlations would speak a lot to a dynamic of the understandings of investment As aforementioned it
was found that there is a negative relationship between age and market capitalization standing with a
correlation coefficient of -483 hence translating to say the younger the age the higher the selection of
market capitalization as a dominant factor for deciding which stock to select for inclusion into an
individual portfolio The next significant relationship was that of the level of education and the use of
observing other institutional investors for inclusion of stock in onersquos portfolio which was identified to
have a relatively strong negative relationship to translate that the greater the level of education the
greater the ability to make an independent investment decision rather than observing other institutional
investors The two relationships do speak to each other though in the respect that information
asymmetry is a burden for a number of investors Typically younger investors can be taught more
about investment opportunities if they would prefer to manage their own individual portfolios and if
otherwise have a fund manager whom is a specialist in the field of finance and investment to manage
ones funds on their behalf such that optimum returns are obtained The author places great emphasis is
41 | P a g e
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
that windows of opportunity present themselves not so often hence as and when they avail themselves
it is vital that they are exploited such that wealth can be earned because it simply cannot be handed
down to anybody on a silver platter
47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The roles of an individual investor seeking to venture into investment by handing their own portfolio
or having an agent manage it on their behalf has been greatly emphasised in that the unique earnings
capabilities if the asset classes is capitalised on for the purposes of wealth creation Henceforth the
implications of which would then be used to extend current knowledge in the field and this is
explained thoroughly in the next chapter
42 | P a g e
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
51 INTRODUCTION
The author intends to outline current knowledge and studies pertaining to the two asset vehicles being
unit trusts and the stock market Preceding this would be outlining and picking out major findings
from the research conducted in terms of what is new and also what comes about to being different in
the research from the current studies Finally a reconciliation is made with regards to how the findings
extend the current knowledge or how it brings about knew knowledge to which more studies can be
conducted upon
52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
The discussion would be based on the framework of reinforcing what is already known new
knowledge being brought about to the table by the research hence showing the interrelation and
extension of knowledge in the field
521 Reinforcing what is already known
5211 Objective 1
A number of investors have found unit trusts to be a profitable and wise decision to make when
investing their money in that an expert manages their portfolio on their behalf which benefits them
since they are being passive though they get returns they expect Research by Tng (2006) has
attributed factors such as risk size asset allocation and investment style to be influencers of the
performance of mutual funds to which investment firms that are mostly non-bank take advantage by
conducting great researches in search of investment opportunities to invest their funds in hence making
them thus profitable Unit trusts are also known to be profitable for both domestic and foreign
investments On the contrary though poor timing ability by some fund managers and failure to
outperform the market has been the downside of investing in unit trusts (Low 2007)
5212 Objective 2
The ideal concession with the stock market is to sell market leaders in a falling market and buying on a
rising market (Dequech 2011) the same idea was brought about by Hammami (2013) whereby
43 | P a g e
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
demand was for recent winners and recent losers are sold It must be highlighted though that the
performance of any stock market is highly dependent on the economic health of any country hence the
ideal selection of any stock would be highly dependent on how it is influenced by economic aspects
and or the strategies it has which outperforms the market
5213 Objective 3
With respect to portfolio building the dividend policy that a company adopts becomes essential to the
performance of the stock on the exchange market as failure to pay for which results in investors having
to attribute this to poor management (Waweru 2010) Chambers Dimson and Foo (2015) greatly
emphasise the tactic of observing the market as mentioned by previous authors to take up opportunities
of wealth as and when they present themselves Furthermore the advantage of the stock exchange lies
with the diversification of investment it presents thereby minimising the systematic risk arising in any
market
522 What is new and different in the findings
The ideal expectation of any unit trust fund is that because it involves having a professional agent
managing the portfolio the returns less management fees would far outweigh that of which if it were
only an individual investor Though the comparison of which has not been done but the performance
of some local mutual funds has been underperforming Such would include the Stanlib money market
fund which is greatly affected by economic aspects such as inflation though the expectation by
investors is that such would be foreseen by such practitioners unlike the rather naiumlve individual The
competitor side with a greater risk too seemed to underperform with the portfolio now generating
enough returns to meet the target it set and this is the BIFM balanced prudential fund Such was
attributed to underperformance by the Domestic Companies Index meaning inclusion of which into the
portfolio was not fully analysed and furthermore great reliance was placed on foreign equities which
ended up gaining from European markets though outperformed by the decline in the Chinese market as
it is the second largest economic driver globally hence the impact of which would be fully felt A
consolation of this though would just be that this is a portfolio ideally created for the medium term
hence one would be hopeful to better returns in the future
On a different note though banks are usually expected to be market leaders on any stock exchange
since we do trust them with our money in the first place but this is now the case for the BSE as it
seems the banking companies have not fully recuperated from the 2008 global financial crisis and
hence we have the insurance company dominating and some property companies slowly and gradually
growing
44 | P a g e
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
Investment opportunities in Botswana remain vast with that of one on the stock exchange being
dominant in that wealth can be created vividly for a range of investors within the economic society As
highlighted by the findings from above opportunities lie in a number of ventures such as IPOrsquos to
which the prospect of capital appreciation stands clear the consolation and faith of such stock can be
corroborated by independent stock brokers and valuers whom observe the future projections as
outlined by the IPO prospectus The author therefore advices for the inclusion of new stock in their
respective portfolios for both individual investors and fund managers Investors must also understand
that with high risks being assumed for any investment high returns are expected hence it is a room of
opportunity to gain more depending on their risk appetite the point being emphasised by the author is
that treasury bonds (government bonds) are not relatively profitable since they are risk free though this
can be questionable since during the 2008 global financial crisis some governments defaulted on their
bonds It is often advised that excess capital be employed into smaller and or cheaper equities such as
those of venture capital companies such that room for gaining vast earnings is higher Further
emphasis is placed upon large companies on the BSE that are performing very well to buy more of
their equities such greatly attributed to BIHL from the sampled companies followed by Standard
Chartered Through such choices one would be able to diversify their portfolio such that risk is kept at
a minimum
53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The research has highlighted the significance of investing in unit trusts and effectively individually on
the stock exchange to which the ideal portfolio can be used by both individual investors and fund
managers for make their portfolios profitable for both the short term and the long term The
competitive edge expressed by having to invest in unit trusts highlighted though ate same time the
stock market too having its own advantages of receiving both dividends and capital appreciation of
stock hence the two asset vehicles can be used to construct an investment portfolio for Batswana to
encourage investment at national levels
45 | P a g e
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
61 INTRODUCTION
The aim of the research is to evaluate a structure for investing both unit trusts and into the stock
market to build profitable portfolios using their unique earning abilities This aim was intended to be
addressed though a number of objectives that would guide the study from the level of current literature
on the topic prescribed and the research methodology to be exercised
62 CONCLUSIONS
One of the key drivers of GDP is investment to which the economic policy of any country can be used
to induce it or attractive portfolios being availed to prospective investors such that they would put their
money into it From the questionnaire conducted by the researcher it indicated that on average 403
are keen not to keep their money in a bank but invest in a company as such the researcher found it
best to construct a portfolio which would give investors piece of mind depending on their risk appetite
and investment period such that they would be more likely to receive the returns they desire
The first objective of the study is to examine the profitability and earnings potential of unit trusts and
the stock market Investing in unit trusts is suitable for investors whom prefer a specialist to manage
their funds on their behalf and it does cater for the risk averse and risk tolerable investors as per
indicated by the findings in chapter 4 Studies by Rudman (2008) in South Africa have revealed unit
trusts to be one of the fastest growing industries in the finance sector Tenk (2008) has emphasized that
the diversification of investment exercised by mutual funds has been a competitive factor in increasing
opportunity for higher returns and minimizing risk of the investment Examining the profitability of
which was conducted over two sampled fund managers locally namely BIFM and Stanlib and analysis
carried henceforth The two portfolios of both companies was found to be profitable for both the short
term which is ideal for liquid investors and for medium term investors whom have a relatively greater
risk appetite hence the investment decision for which is a GO The activities of the stock exchange on
the other hand have been found to be occurring at local and international levels (Slimane 2012) The
examination of which was conducted over four sampled companies listed on the Botswana Stock
Exchange namely Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited Sefalana First National Bank Botswana and
46 | P a g e
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
Standard Chartered using the internationally recognized accounting ratio lsquoearnings per sharersquo(EPS)
On average BIHL outperformed all other sampled companies over the ten year period hence it is the
first in the investment order while stocks of other companies like FNBB which performed the lowest
would result in advising investors to sell the share as we corroborate this to the study by Dequech
(2011) that you sell in a declining market
The second objective was to identify the perceptive of investors against the two asset classes The
methodology of steering such an objective was adopting an abductive approach and using a pragmatist
philosophy hence conducting questionnaires to a sampled group of investors to which the analysis of
their data would be inferential to the whole population of other investors The findings indicated that
investors are keen on investing but seem uncertain as to the go about of the whole procedure or which
investments to venture into hence information is to be provided on such and an ideal portfolio is
availed such that they would know where to place their money and what to expect in return
The third objective was aimed at constructing and prospecting an investment structure mix using the
two asset vehicles then having a third party whom would be independent of the research to corroborate
the prospected portfolio by comparing with ideally what they would suggest The researcher would it
exceptional to have at the very least half of the capital available being invested into unit trusts on a
balanced prudential fund with a firm such as Stanlib or if they have a low risk appetite invest in a
money market fund offered by BIFM which is more liquid The other half of the capital can be
invested on the stock exchange and diversified amongst market leaders such as BIHL and Sefalana and
new listed companies which present a window of opportunity for future earnings both in the short term
and in the medium term to the extent that even the longer term too can be satisfied such as BTCL and
Far Property Company These findings extend knowledge in the field as priory indicated from the
research gap in chapter two that there seems not to be an sound study which caters for long term
investment opportunities such that investments would yield relatively better returns and such is
brought about by the findings in this particular research In light of the above it speaks purely to the
research question asked in the first chapter that ldquoWhat investment structure mix of the two asset
classes would yield optimum returns assuming adequate capitalhellipCeteris Paribasrdquo as already
aforementioned
63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
The author recommends the selection of unit trusts in their portfolios so as to have a practitioner
manage your funds on your behalf and hence reduce the risk of investment while creating an
opportunity for wealth creation The preceding step is to invest in rising markets this is done so by
47 | P a g e
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
closely reviewing the respective investments such that one understands the company and has light on
the expected return from the stock in the short medium and long term A definite given is attributed to
IPOrsquos as they donrsquot often occur hence it would be wise not to miss the opportunity when it presents
itself
64 LIMITATIONS
The limitations that the author would like to expatriate are with respect to particular objectives The
first of which pertaining to the analysis of the performance of sampled stock on the BSE through the
use of EPS The reasoning for using it was because it was and still is the only accounting ratio
recognized by the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) hence making it equitable for
use and basis The limitation of it becomes that in practice we cannot measure the performance of a
public listed company using one accounting ratio because it may give misleading results hence we
may end up buying stock which we should be selling or selling stock which we should be buying more
of The author thereby recommends further research which involves the use of more accounting ratios
and comparison measures to industry averages so as to eliminate questions of what the findings would
be if we used a certain ratio or so forth
A weakness recognized in the study is failure to conduct interviews with independent parties so as to
corroborate the findings of the prospected portfolio has resulted in creating a room for doubt as to
what would have been criticized in the portfolio as well as what would have been appraised well hence
the author recommends further study so as to obtain specialist opinion regarding the portfolio and
corroborating it to the findings themselves
Another weakness which is underlying throughout the research is the assumption of unlimited funds
and capital being available for all sorts of investments to which is it not the case in practice as funds
are usually limited and investments are in when funds are in excess
65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
The conclusions above are highlighted based on the aims and objectives set out in the study from the
first chapter They assimilate current literature on the respective topic and encompass the methodology
conducted for obtaining the data required hence making the conclusions themselves based on the
analysis of the data collected
48 | P a g e
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
CHAPTER 7
REFLECTIONS
The opportunity for wealth creation has always sat at the heart of the author the concession came
about from the world famous investors such as global economist John Keynes in the 1950rsquos and
current philanthropist Warren Buffet This then posed the question ldquowhat is stopping me from venting
into such as wellrdquo It is for this reason that the author chose to dwell more and explore the insights and
ideas of the theory and language of investment particularly unit trusts and the stock market The
purpose of this reflection is essentially to capture and captivate critical moments from the journey of
the research and to say that this is not a destination but just a checkpoint for future research as even
done so in Collings Cunningham and Wood (2015)
The start of the research was rather unclear of the direction that researchers are to undergo hence the
importance of it was not greatly recognised as compared to the two modules we pursued that past
semester As the pace gradually picked more light shed into our minds in that the author got to
understand what was expected of him in the end The active participation into the field for data
collection began mid-December before the festive excitement arose not that is it ever much of a
festive since we began with BAC so it was nothing new hence it was just a matter of rising from the
dust and doing more of the hard work It was rather a very depressing venture as having to get people
down to listen to the proposal you have was such a hurdle Furthermore the torments of constant
failure to construct a reliable questionnaire for data collection were unbearable The breakthrough long
did arrive eventually with a little over a few consent forms being signed by my sampled participants
and this shed a bit of hope As the new-year commenced most were occupied with exams thereafter
commencing of the following semester with the only outstanding article at the time being the ethical
approval form which did not bring about any headache at all The timing of all this though was during
the commencing of the BTCL initial public offering whereby many stakeholders that pertain to the
investment industries were occupied with this new listing hence would not get responses from
participants never mind them finding time to even schedule a meeting nor even getting some on board
to participate in the research Weeks passed and slowly but surely received some a handful responses
and some seeming to be promising at the same time managed to tackle the fair share of other chapters
that two required immediate attention for the purpose of this research As the time quickly approached
49 | P a g e
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
the deadline more time got consumed with having to engage in other curricular activities such as tests
and final semester exams and most seemed to lose focus on what to handle and what to leave a number
of times Some participants defaulted at last minute and it brought about an element of disappointment
but that should now stop one from completing the dissertation The author chose to do without the
missing component and did note though the significance what it would have brought about to the
research
This was truly a learning curve to which definitely it is to be expected by any scholar to continue with
post graduate study and hopefully by then all scholars would have a different approach to it that
initially pre-empted On the contrary though further research is still to be conducted by the researcher
so as to compare findings and conclude on that basis henceforth present a corroborated investment
portfolio for Batswana investors for the purposes of wealth creation by Chilo Ketlhoafetse
50 | P a g e
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
REFERENCE
1 Atanasov V Nitschka T 2014 Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (12) pp 231-250 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901400043X
2 Beiske B 2007 Research Methods Uses and limitations of questionnaires interviews and
case studies GRIN Verlag
3 Bigda C Tepper T 2016 What to buy Sell and Hold now Time Inc Available at
httpwwwmoneycom
4 BIHL 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpwwwbihlcobwsitesdefaultfilesdocumentsBIHL20Year20end
20201520results20200220March20201620-20BSEpdf (Accessed 4-04-2015)
5 Black F Scholes M 1973 The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities The Journal of
Political Economy Vol 81 (3) Pp 637-654 Available at httpwwwjstororgstable1831029
origin=JSTOR-pdf
6 Blazenko G W Fu Y 2013 Value versus growth in dynamic equity investing Managerial
Finance Vol 39 Iss 3 pp 272 ndash 305 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351311302809
7 Brookfield D Su C amp Bangassa K 2015 Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts The
European Journal of Finance 2110-11 946-970 Available at
http1010801351847X2013788533
8 Calvet L E Sodini P 2014 Twin Picks Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in
Household Portfolios The Journal of Finance Vol 69 (2)
9 Carhart M M 1997 On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Finance Vol
52 pp 57ndash82
10Chambers D Dimson E Foo J 2015 Keynes the Stock Market Investor A Quantitative
Analysis Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 No 4 pp843-868 Available
at httpdoi101017S0022109015000186
11Cochrane J H 2014 A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory The
Journal of Finance Vol 69 (1)
12Collings D G Cunningham J Wood G 2015 Reflections on Irish management research
Past present and future Irish Journal of Management Vol 34 (1) Pp 2-6 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101515jm-2015-0002
51 | P a g e
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
13Consler J Lepak G M Havranek S F 2011 Earnings per share versus cash flow per share as
predictor of dividends per share Managerial Finance Vol 37 Iss 5 pp 482 ndash 488 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074351111126960
14Cordis A 2014 Accounting Ratios and the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns Journal
of Business Finance and Accounting Vol 41(9) amp (10) Iss 1157-1192
httpdxdoiorg101111jbfa12092
15Corteacutes P Onieva L Guadix J Muntildeuzuri J 2013 Designing fixed-income securities
investment portfolios under different scenarios The Service Industries Journal Vol 33 Iss 9-
10 pp 859-875 Available at httpdxdoiorg101080026420692013719885
16Daniel K Hirshleifer D 2015 Overconfident Investors Predictable Returns and Excessive
Trading Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol 29 (4) Iss 61-88
17Dawson C 2009 Introduction to Research methods A practical guide for everyone undertaking
a research project 4th edition Begbroke How to books ltd
18DeMiguel V Plyakha Y Uppal R Vilkov G 2013 Improving Portfolio Selection Using
Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol
48 (6) Pp 1813-1845 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109013000616
19Denscombe M 2007 The good research guide for small-scale social research project 3rd Ed
London The McGrwa Hills
20Dequech D 2011 Financial conventions in Keyness theory the stock exchange Journal of
Post Keynesian Economics Vol 33 Iss 3 pp 469-490 Available at
httpdxdoiorg102753PKE0160-3477330304
21Dunnan N 1989 Unit Investment Trusts ABA Journal
22Evans M Hodder L and Hopkins P 2014 The Predictive Ability of Fair Values for Future
Financial Performance of Commercial Banks and the Relation of Predictive Ability to Banksrsquo
Share Prices Contemporary Accounting Research Vol 31 No 1 (Spring 2014) pp 13ndash44
Available at httpdoi1011111911-384612028
23Eun C S Kolodny R and Resnick B 1991 USndashbased international mutual funds
a performance evaluation The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1991 Vol 17 No 3
pp 88-94 Available at http103905jpm1991409337
24Fama E F French K R 1993 Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds
Journal of Financial Economics Vol 33 Iss 3ndash56
25Fama E F French K R 2015 A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model Available at
httppersonallseacukvayanosWPapersFMTNICPpdf
52 | P a g e
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
26Fang Y Wang H 2015 Fund manager characteristics and performance Investment Analysts
Journal Vol 44 Iss 1 pp 102-116 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080102935232015994453
27Firth M 1978 Unit Trusts Performance and Prospects Management Decision Vol 16 Iss 3
pp 95 ndash 165
28Fisher C 2010 Researching and Writing a dissertation an essential guide for business
students 3rd Ed UK Pearson Education Limited
29FNBB 2015 Annual Report 2015 Available at
httpswwwfnbbotswanacobwdownloadsfnbBotswanaannualFNBBAR2015pdf (Accessed
4-04-2016)
30Fornazzari A 2009 A stock market theory of culture a view from the Latin American
neoliberal transition Social Identities Vol 15 Iss 3 pp 373-381 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108013504630902899259
31Goddard W Melville S 2004 Research methodology An Introduction 2nd Ed London
Blackwell Publishing
32Goyal A Ivo W 2008 A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium
prediction Review of Financial Studies Vol 21 pp 1455ndash1508
33Hammami Y 2013 Momentum investing across economic states evidence of market
inefficiency in good times Applied Financial Economics Vol 23 pp 51-56
34Honde G Abraha F 2015 Botswana 2015 African Economic outlook [Online] Accessed
91115 Available at
httpwwwafricaneconomicoutlookorgfileadminuploadsaeo2015CN_dataCN_Long_EN
Botswana_GB_2015pdf
35Johannes M Korteweg A Polson N 2014 Sequential Learning Predictability and Optimal
Portfolio Returns The Journal of Finance Vol 69 No 2
36Johnson W C Sohl J 2012 Angels and venture capitalists in the initial public offering
market Venture Capital Vol 14 Iss 1 pp 27-42 Available at
httpdxdoiorg101080136910662012660743
37Kahn R N Lemmon M 2016 The Asset Managerrsquos Dilemma How Smart Beta Is Disrupting
the Investment Management Industry Financial Analysts Journal Vol 72 (1) Available
through httpwwwcfapubsorg
53 | P a g e
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
38Kao GW Cheng TW and Chan KC 1998 International Mutual Fund Selectivity and
Market Timing during Up and Down Market Conditions The Financial Review Vol 33 pp
127-144 httpdxdoiorg101111j1540-62881998tb01373x
39Keynes J M 1936 The General Theory Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press
40Lodico MG Spaulding DT and Voegtle KH 2010 Methods in Educational Research
from theory to practice San Francisco Jon Wiley and Sons
41Low S 2007 Malaysian unit trust fundsrsquo performance during up and down market conditions
Managerial Finance Vol 33 Iss 2 pp 154 ndash 166 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350710715863
42Maio P Santa-Clara P 2015 Dividend Yields Dividend Growth and Return Predictability in
the Cross Section of Stocks Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 pp 33ndash
60 Available at httpdxdoiorg101017S0022109015000058
43McGrath M Viney C 1998 Financial Institutions Instruments and Markets 2 edn McGraw-
Hill Sydney
44Merikas A Merika A 2006 Stock prices response to real economic variables the case of
Germany Managerial Finance Vol 32 Iss 5 pp 446 ndash 450 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10110803074350610657454
45Najeeb S F Bacha O Masih M 2015 Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect
Portfolio Diversification Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation
Analysis Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Vol 51 pp 188-208 Available at
httpdxdoiorg1010801540496X20151011531
46Neville C 2007 Introduction to Research and Research Methods Effective Learning Service
University of Bradford School of Management [Online]
47Oliver P Jupp V 2006 Purposive sampling In The SAGE dictionary of social research
methods [Online] Sage pp 244-245 ISBN 9780761962977
48Rebello M Wei K D 2014 A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door The Long-Term Investment
Value of Buy-Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance Journal of
Accounting Research Vol 52 (3) Available at httpdxdoiorg1011111475-976X12042
49Rudman R J 2008 An empirical study of the determinants of net investment flows of South
African General Equity unit trusts Meditari Accountancy Research Vol 16 Iss 1 pp95 ndash 116
50Ryan T P 2015 How to select Investment Portfolios using Performance Analysis Journal of
Performance Measurement Vol 20 Iss 1 p7-14 8p
54 | P a g e
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
51Saunders M Lewis P amp Thornhill A 2012 Research methods for business students 6th ed
Pearson
52Sevdalis N Harvey N 2007 ldquoInvestingrdquo versus ldquoInvesting for a Reasonrdquo Context Effects in
Investment Decisions Journal of Behavioral Finance Vol 83 Iss 172-176 Available at
httpdxdoiorg10108015427560701547487
53Slimane FB 2012 Stock exchange consolidation and return volatility Managerial Finance
Vol 38 Iss 6 pp 606 ndash 627 Available at httpdxdoiorg10110803074351211226256
54Taib F Isa M 2007 Malaysian unit trusts aggregate performance Managerial Finance Vol
33 Iss 2 pp 102-121
55Tenk T 2012 The Impact of Unit Trust Management Company Fund Investment on Investorsrsquo
Risk Asian Journal of Business and Accounting Vol 5(1) pp 27-54
56Titman S Keown A J MartinJ D 2014 Principles and Applications Financial
Management 12 ed Harlow Pearson Education Limited
57Tng C S 2006 Factors influencing unit trust performance DBA thesis Southern Cross
University Lismore NSW
58Walkshausl C Lobe S 2015 The Enterprise Multiple Investment Strategy International
Evidence Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 50 (4) Pp 781-800 Available
at httpdxdoiorg101017S002210901500023X
59Waweru N 2010 Do Dividends matter Some evidence from an emerging market South
African Journal of Accounting Research Vol 24 1 Pp 1-11
60Yin R K 2003 Case Study Research Design and methods 3rd Ed Thousand Oaks CA Sage
55 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 ndash Investment QuestionnaireQuestionnaire No _____
Investment QuestionnaireBasic Data
1 How old are you _____years
2 Which level of educations have you attained
University degree in Finance
MBA or management studies
Diploma in Business Studies
Vocational training
High School Certificate
Other please
specify
3 Q11What kind of industries would you prefer to invest in
(Tick all that apply)
Retail
Architecture construction
Banking
Automotive
DesignFurniture
Health medical
Property
Scientific research
Security
Telecommunications
Tourism travel
56 | P a g e
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
Other please
specify
Botswana Investments
5 4 3 2 1
Rationale Very
much
Some
what
Neutral Not
really
Not at
all
How often do you investHow often do you encounter problems when investingWould you like to invest in a company in the futureWould you rather opt to invest in a company than keep your money in a bank accountHow often do you review published company resultsDo you know of Fund managers available in BotswanaHave you invested in Unit trusts beforeWould you like constant information about your investmentAre foreign investments financially worth itWould you prefer an agent to manage your portfolio
57 | P a g e
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
Evaluation methods
1 Please rate the importance of the following potential buy signals for the inclusion of
stocks in the portfolio that you manage
Please cross all categories and select the strength of influence to buy-in
5 4 3 2 1
Strength of the buy signal Almostalways
Sometimes Every once in a
while
Rarely Never
An above-average rise in market price accompanied by an increase in turnoverA market price that has stabilised at a level significantly lower than its all-time highGrowing expectations concerning higher dividendsThe raising of corporate earnings estimates by analystsObserved purchases by other institutional investorsCorporate announcements and statements that are perceived as being positiveA low valuation on a cross-market or cross-sector comparison based on profit expectations for the coming financial years
2 Which method of analysis do you primarily apply to the selection of stocks
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Technical analysis of price trends price formation and turnover trendsFundamental analysis based on forecast factorsA portfolio optimisation approach based on estimated yields and covariancersquos
58 | P a g e
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
3 To which other criteria do you attribute special importance when taking investment
decisions
Please cross all categories and select the magnitude of the predominant role it plays
5 4 3 2 1
Practical relevance Very much
Some what
Neutral Not really
Not at all
Trading costs such as bid-offer spreadMarket capitalisationFrequent reports and availability of independent analystsrsquo estimates
Previous corporate development as well as performance on stock marketAvailability of tradable derivatives for transactions or as a source of additional information
59 | P a g e
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
Interview Questions
1 If you could invest in one underlying asset right now what would it be
2 How do you currently keep up with the markets3 Where do you see the market going in the next 6 months What leads you to believe so4 How do fund managers acquire information from their investee company
5 How do fund managers influence their investee companies
6 What is your investment philosophy
7 What is PE and how would you use it to compare companies
8 It is common practice to evaluate PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap If you had no
comparable companies for a stock how can you evaluate if a stock is cheap
9 What makes a stock a good investment
10 What investment mix of stock and unit trusts do you professionally feel would suit best Why
Are there any conditions
11 If you had to put ALL of your money in one stock and leave it there for 10 years which stock
would it be and why
12 Which macroeconomic factors do you think mostly affect the two asset classes Why so
13 Which investment theories are you aware of Which would you opt best
14 What should one do when one of their portfolios blow-up
15 Is re-investing returnsearnings a good decision
60 | P a g e
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
A First National Bank Botswana
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010(half- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EPS 1218 1470 1599 1023 2256 2236 2756 2829 2325
B Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
basic 383 649 1192 20581 7703 87 122 18256 183 18256 18295 218
C Sefalana PLC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015eps 66 1392 1835 3434 3439 2689 4542 615 6383 6539
D Standard Chartered 2007 (half 2008(half 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS 4587 5417 8168 7784 9431 9345 10778 10696 1588
Analysis
Measure FNBB BIHL Sefalana StanchartMean 1968 13139 3706 7533
standard deviation 660 5861 2139 3090coeffecient of variation 3353 4460 5771 4102
maxima 2829 20581 6539 10778
61 | P a g e
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
Ethical Considerations Please indicate how you intend to address each of the following in your study
Points a - i relate particularly to projects involving human participants
a Consent
The importance of consent is highlighted by having informed participants of the nature of the
research and their particular contributions towards it as such the researcher issued out consent
letters to them so they agree to participate on so far as the scope of their information is
required The consent letters and briefing letters were signed by the participants and they are
attached with this ethical form along with debriefing letters signed by the researcher
b Deception
A research involving deception can be problematic and does not appeal to be morally right for
this particular research thus the researcher is not partaking in anything deceptive
c Debriefing
Not all participant would be given outcome of the research simply because the objective they
cover does not form part of a large proportion of the research rather those assisting in the
portfolio construction would be given the results of the research so they too would probably
adopt the outcomes of it Neither the less debriefing letters were still issued out to participants
so they remain informed
d Withdrawal from the investigation
Accompanying the consent letters was the withdrawal letters so participants were well
informed that they may at their discression pull out of the study at any point Henceforth any
information they provide would not be used in the research unless approved by them
e Confidentiality
Any information provided forth by participants would not be communicated or prevailed to any
third parties such as the tax authorities or government Names of participants would not be
disclosed but the data they provide would be availed to the school institution for assessment
purposes Security measures such as use of passwords to guard soft copy data is put in place as
for all hard documentation has been kept in locked lockers to prevent exposure of sensitive
data
f Protection of participants
62 | P a g e
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-
Protection of participants is regarded as important since the data they provide would be of
utmost importance as well As such participants are not be exposed to any form of
psychological or physical hard what so ever nor would the research jeopardise their
professional life and all work will be within the boundaries of the ethics committee
g Observation research [complete if applicable]
There was no observation for this research thus this is not applicable
h Giving advice
The researcher only said out anything just so far as the scope of the study is concerned
anything beyond is referred to as such with the project supervisor for a more qualified opinion
if need be
i Research undertaken in public places [complete if applicable]
The research is conducted in private places to ensure the principle of confidentiality
j Data protection
All forms of information are for the purposes of addressing the objectives that aid this research
as such all data is kept within the boundaries of the study and is not communicated to any third
parties unless any information is of public knowledge And safeguards are in place to protect
data through the use of passwords on personal computers and online material for all soft copies
relating to my participants this extends further for keeping all hard copies in a safe locker such
that only I would have access to them unless required by the University for Assessment
Purposes
k Animal Rights [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern animals what so ever thus not applicable
l Environmental protection [complete if applicable]
The research would not concern the environment thus not applicable
63 | P a g e
- DECLARATION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- ABSTRACT
- LIST OF TABLES
- LIST OF FIGURESILLUSTRATIONS
- CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
-
- 11 INTRODUCTION
- 12 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT AND MAIN QUESTION
- 13 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 14 BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY
- 15 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
- 16 KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- 17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND OUTLINE OF OTHER CHAPTERS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
-
- CHAPTER 2
- LITERATURE REVIEW
-
- 21 INTRODUCTION
- 22 PERSPECTIVES ON INVESTMENT VEHICLES
-
- 221 Classification of the two asset classes
- 222 Unit trusts Performance
- 223 Stock market Performance
-
- 23 CURRENT RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT STRUCTURING
-
- 231 Investment Theories
- 232 Investor Perceptions
- 233 Portfolio Building
-
- 24 CONCLUSION
- 25 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH GAPSSILENCESCONTRADICTIONS THAT EMERGE FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW
- 26 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 3
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
- 31 INTRODUCTION
- 32 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY
- 33 RESEARCH APPROACH
- 34 THE RESEARCH DESIGN STRATEGY
- 35 THE RESEARCH METHODS
-
- 351 Sample and sampling (size criteria justification etc)
- 352 Data collection instrument(s) (amp pilot testing if appropriate)
- 353 Data collection procedure
- 354 Data analysis procedure
- 355 Reliability measures and validity of the study (for quantitative study) or Measures to ensure trustworthiness (for qualitative study)
-
- 36 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- 37 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
- 38 APPROPRIATENESS OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN (Reflection)
- 39 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 4
- DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
-
- 41 INTRODUCTION
- 42 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- 43 STATISTICAL (or textual) ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
- 44 BACKGROUND DATA OF PARTICIPANTS
- 45 MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 451 Objective 1
- 452 Objective 2
- 453 Objective 3
-
- 46 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 47 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 5
- DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 51 INTRODUCTION
- 52 DISCUSSION OF MAJOR FINDINGS
-
- 521 Reinforcing what is already known
- 522 What is new and different in the findings
- 523 How the results extend knowledge in the field
-
- 53 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 6
- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
-
- 61 INTRODUCTION
- 62 CONCLUSIONS
- 63 RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLICATIONS
- 64 LIMITATIONS
- 65 CHAPTER SUMMARY
-
- CHAPTER 7
- REFLECTIONS
- REFERENCE
- APPENDICES
-
- Appendix 1 ndash Investment Questionnaire
- Appendix 2 ndash Portfolio Questions
- Appendix 3 ndash Earnings per share trends
- Appendix 4- Ethical Considerations
-