Incorporating Time of Day Incorporating Time of Day Modeling into FSUTMS –Modeling into FSUTMS –

Phase IIPhase IITime of Day (Peak Spreading) ModelTime of Day (Peak Spreading) Model

Presentation to FDOT SPO

23 March 2011Heinrich McBean

Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

BackgroundBackground

► Identified as a top priority by Model Task Force Identified as a top priority by Model Task Force in 2008in 2008

► Research project divided into two phasesResearch project divided into two phasesPhase I: Fixed TOD Factoring and Procedure Phase I: Fixed TOD Factoring and Procedure

DevelopmentDevelopmentPhase II: Development and implementation of Phase II: Development and implementation of

TOD peak spreading model.TOD peak spreading model.

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Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

Why Consider Time of Day ModelingWhy Consider Time of Day Modeling

► Time at which travel Time at which travel occurs vary by time of day occurs vary by time of day and locationand location

► Variation results in peaking Variation results in peaking of demand during of demand during weekday AM and PM work weekday AM and PM work commutecommute

► Knowledge of period travel Knowledge of period travel demand provides useful demand provides useful insights for planning and insights for planning and operationsoperations

Source: FHWA, Our Nation’s Highway, 2010

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Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

Why Incorporate TOD in FSUTMS?Why Incorporate TOD in FSUTMS?

► Required by FTA for New Required by FTA for New Starts/Small Starts Alternatives Starts/Small Starts Alternatives Analysis.Analysis.

► Required by FHWA and EPA for Required by FHWA and EPA for Air Quality Conformity Analysis.Air Quality Conformity Analysis.

► Required for transportation Required for transportation policies that have temporal policies that have temporal sensitivity, e.g.:sensitivity, e.g.: Variable Tolling,Variable Tolling, Managed Lanes, Managed Lanes, Congestion Pricing, Congestion Pricing, Travel Demand ManagementTravel Demand Management

► It is good modeling practice.It is good modeling practice.

Source: FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts, March 2009

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Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

How To Incorporate TOD ModelingHow To Incorporate TOD Modeling

► Fixed TOD factors (Fixed TOD factors (The common practiceThe common practice).).Derived from local observed travel patterns. Derived from local observed travel patterns. Relatively easy to implement.Relatively easy to implement.Assumes that travel patterns will remain the Assumes that travel patterns will remain the

same in the future. same in the future. Not sensitive to transportation LOS changes.Not sensitive to transportation LOS changes.

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Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

How To Incorporate TOD ModelingHow To Incorporate TOD Modeling

► Econometric TOD modelEconometric TOD modelSensitive to changes in transportation LOSSensitive to changes in transportation LOSCan be used to model “peak spreading”Can be used to model “peak spreading”Limited only by model structure and data in the Limited only by model structure and data in the

modelmodelRequires somewhat more work to estimate and Requires somewhat more work to estimate and

calibrate than fixed TOD factorscalibrate than fixed TOD factors

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Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

Approach: Proof of COnceptApproach: Proof of COncept

► Acquire test model and review model structureAcquire test model and review model structure► Acquire and prepare base year travel data Acquire and prepare base year travel data ► Develop fixed TOD factors for model region Develop fixed TOD factors for model region

based on observed local travelbased on observed local travel► Restructure the test modelRestructure the test model► Implement fixed TOD factors in the base year Implement fixed TOD factors in the base year

modelmodel► Implement and test TOD peak spreading modelImplement and test TOD peak spreading model► Model calibration and validationModel calibration and validation

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Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

The Test ModelThe Test Model

► Model Region: Capital Region (CRTPA) Model Region: Capital Region (CRTPA) ► Base Year: 2007Base Year: 2007► Model Base Year Inputs: SE data, and all base Model Base Year Inputs: SE data, and all base

year inputs provided by CRTPA.year inputs provided by CRTPA.

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Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

Base Year Travel DataBase Year Travel Data

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Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

Review of TEST ModelReview of TEST Model

► FSUTMS four-step modelFSUTMS four-step model► Daily highway assignment, Peak and Off-peak Daily highway assignment, Peak and Off-peak

transit assignmenttransit assignment► Five internal trip purposes generated and Five internal trip purposes generated and

distributed (HBW, HBSH, HBSR, HBO, NHB)distributed (HBW, HBSH, HBSR, HBO, NHB)► Three trip purposes modeled in mode choice Three trip purposes modeled in mode choice

(HBW, HBO, NHB)(HBW, HBO, NHB)► No feedback of congested impedanceNo feedback of congested impedance► No car-sufficiency dataNo car-sufficiency data► Autocon(?)Autocon(?)

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Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

Develop Local TOD FactorsDevelop Local TOD Factors

► Not essential for proof of concept Not essential for proof of concept ► Develop fixed TOD factors for model areaDevelop fixed TOD factors for model area► Use 2009 NHTS dataUse 2009 NHTS data► Provide methodology for other planning Provide methodology for other planning

jurisdictions to develop their TOD factors.jurisdictions to develop their TOD factors.

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Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

Existing Structure of the Test ModelExisting Structure of the Test Model

Trip Generation (Daily)

Trip Distribution(Daily)

Mode Choice(Daily)

Trip Assignment: (Highway – Daily; Transit – PK/OP)

Any Model Scenario Year

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Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

Restructure The Test ModelRestructure The Test ModelNote: For each global iteration the Future Year model is run for All TOD periods before the TOD peak spreading sub-model is applied.

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Apply TOD Peak Spreading) Sub-Model by Trip Purpose

Trip Generation

Factor P’s & A’s by Fixed TOD Factors (9 TOD P/A Tables)

Trip Distribution by TOD

Mode Choice by TOD

Highway Assignment by TOD

Skim Base Year LOS by TOD

Trip Generation

Factor P’s & A’s by Fixed TOD Factors (9 TOD P/A Tables)

Trip Distribution by TOD

Mode Choice by TOD

Assignment by TOD

Skim Future Year LOS by TOD

Base Year Future Year

Convergence?NoYes

END

Transit Assignment (PK/OP)

Transit Assignment

Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

Restructure The Test ModelRestructure The Test Model

► Nine TOD periods:Nine TOD periods:Very Early AM (3:00 to 5:59)Very Early AM (3:00 to 5:59)Early AM (6:00 to 6:59)Early AM (6:00 to 6:59)AM Peak (7:00 - 8.59)AM Peak (7:00 - 8.59)Late AM (9:00 to 9:59)Late AM (9:00 to 9:59)Midday (10:00 AM -1:59 PM)Midday (10:00 AM -1:59 PM)Early PM (2:00 to 2:59)Early PM (2:00 to 2:59)PM Peak (3:00 PM – 5:59)PM Peak (3:00 PM – 5:59)Late PM (6:00 – 6:59)Late PM (6:00 – 6:59)Night (7:00 PM to 2:59AM)Night (7:00 PM to 2:59AM)

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Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

Restructure The Test ModelRestructure The Test Model

► Internal Trip Purpose by Direction:Internal Trip Purpose by Direction:Home-based WorkHome-based Work

HBW to WorkHBW to Work HBW to HomeHBW to Home

Home-based ShoppingHome-based Shopping HBSH to ShopHBSH to Shop HBSH to HomeHBSH to Home

Home-based Social/RecreationHome-based Social/Recreation HBSR to SocRecHBSR to SocRec HBSR to HomeHBSR to Home

Home-based OtherHome-based Other HBO to OtherHBO to Other HBO to HomeHBO to Home

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Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

TOD Peak Spreading Sub-ModelTOD Peak Spreading Sub-Model

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Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

TOD Peak Spreading Sub-ModelTOD Peak Spreading Sub-Model

► Incremental logit modelIncremental logit model► Driven by difference in travel impedance for Driven by difference in travel impedance for

modeled year versus base yearmodeled year versus base year► Apply in future year where significant congestion Apply in future year where significant congestion

growth is expectedgrowth is expected► Requires all TOD periods to be modeled explicitly.Requires all TOD periods to be modeled explicitly.► Model applied for each trip purpose independentlyModel applied for each trip purpose independently► Creates adjusted trip tables after highway Creates adjusted trip tables after highway

assignment for iterative feedback through trip assignment for iterative feedback through trip distribution, mode choice and assignment distribution, mode choice and assignment

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Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

Feedback to Trip Distribution

Test ConvergenceTest Convergence

All Converge?No

Yes

END

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Calculate absolute difference (cell by cell) in each trip table (current compared to previous) for all TOD and

all Purposes and compare result to convergence criterion, δ.

Calculate Trip Tables for next feedback iteration:

Calculate Difference in LOS for TOD Period (Future Year compared to Base Year:

Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

Additional Thoughts…Additional Thoughts…

► Run time, in generalRun time, in general► Feedback of impedance in Base YearFeedback of impedance in Base Year► Averaging of adjusted trip tablesAveraging of adjusted trip tables► TOD factors for Truck & Taxi, IE and EE trip TOD factors for Truck & Taxi, IE and EE trip

purposespurposes

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Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

Questions?Questions?

Thank You!Thank You!

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