Incorporating Environmental Variability into the Management of a Large Marine Ecosystem- The BCLME...
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INCORPORATING ENVIRONMENTAL
VARIABILITY INTO THE
MANAGEMENT OF A LARGE MARINE
ECOSYSTEM – THE BCLME AS AN
EXAMPLE
Johann AugustynMarine and Coastal Management
Department of Environmental Affairs and TourismSouth Africa
Acknowledgements: Lesley Staegemann, Tony van Dalsen
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THE BENGUELA IS A HIGHLY VARIABLE SYSTEM
The Benguela ecosystem is naturally adapted to a highly variable environment, but sustained transboundary events, e.g. – Benguela Niños – widespread hypoxia – Agulhas Current intrusions– changes in winds
can impact on the whole system, compounding negative effects of fishing
It is necessary to understand the impact of this variability on fish distribution and abundance, and to predict major environmental events and their likely ecosystem consequences in order to manage effectively system-wide
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BOUNDARIES
AND SURFACE
CURRENTS
OF THE
BENGUELA
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KEY COMPONENTS OF ENVIRONMENTALVARIABILITY WHICH HAVE
SYSTEM-WIDE IMPACTS ON LIVING RESOURCES1. BENGUELA NIÑOS
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MODELLING Subsurface propagation of warm and cold subsurface anomalies along
the coast in March 1984 and 1997.Acknowledgement: Pierre Florenchie
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HYPOXIA & ANOXIA IN THE BCLME
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EASTERN TROPICAL SOUTH ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
E a s te rn T ro p ic a l S o u th A tla n tic S ys te m : E T S A
E U C
S E U C
S E C C
s S E C
C a p e B a s in S A C W
G C U C
A C
B P U C
E D Z
Acknowledgements: P Monteiro, A. van der Plas and others. In press
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ROCKLOBSTER WALKOUT
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RED TIDES
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BCLME Real Time Data Web Site
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HAKE STOCKS STRADLE THE BORDER BETWEEN SOUTH AFRICA AND
NAMIBIA
NAMIBIA
SOUTH AFRICA
Acknowledge M. Lipinski
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Circulation in the Namibia/South Africa boundary area deduced from
models
Schematic circulation reproduced by the model at (a) 230m, (b) 350m and at (c) 575m depths.
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STATE OF ENVIRONMENT INFORMATION AND EARLY
WARNING SYSTEMS•1999 TDA identified uncertainty regarding ecosystem status and yields in a highly variable environment as a major transboundary problem. •Development of a viable monitoring and early warning system and improving predictability of extreme events seen as cornerstones of SAP Policy Action C “Assessing Environmental Variability, Ecosystem Impacts and Improvement of Predictability”•SOE information and EWS have accordingly been priorities for EVAG
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SOME ELEMENTS OF THE SOESYSTEM DEVELOPED IN NAMIBIA
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ap
r.99
Au
g.9
9
Dec
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Ap
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g.0
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% a
rea
< 0
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l/l
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nu
mb
ers/
m³
Vertical extent of low oxygen off central Namibia
Copepod abundance off central Namibia
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SST in January 2005:The warmest in two decades:
Global climate change?
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DEVELOPMENT OF EWS FOR THE BCLME
The BCLME Programme has invested in:
Re-interpretation of existing data and informationCost-effective in situ monitoringApplication of satellite remote sensingModellingDeveloping a predictive capacity
Proper understanding of processes supported by appropriate measurements and modelling with a view to predicting, are the essential elements of the emerging EWS
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THE BENGUELA: PREDICTING A LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEM
Definitive peer-reviewed book to be published by Elsevier Captures the combined wisdom of more than 100 international experts who met in Cape Town in November 2005 to address forecasting and data assimilation in the Benguela and comparable systems Shows that we ARE now ready to design an operational system for forecasting in the Benguela. Includes a comprehensive assessment of environmental and resource variability in the BCLME and latest developments in model applications. Relevant for sustainable management of the Benguela Blueprint for application in other comparable ecosystems around the World.
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CONCLUSION
The BCLME Programme is making excellent progress in addressing promised Output 3 Strategy viz. “Environmental variability, its ecosystem impacts are assessed, and predictability is improved for enhancing the management of living marine resources” when I judge it against its stated OVIs and MOVs.It really is making a difference for sustainable integrated management of the ecosystem.
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THE CHALLENGE
To incorporate our knowledge of environmental variability and change, its predictability and its impacts on living marine resources into viable system-wide EAF (Ecosystem Approaches to Fisheries) management in the BCLME