Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate...

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Inconvenient Truths Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain and Uncertain Futures Futures Summary of HC 434: Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change Global Climate Change
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Transcript of Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate...

Page 1: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Inconvenient Truths and Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Uncertain Futures

Summary of HC 434: Physics and Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate ChangePolitics of Global Climate Change

Page 2: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Our basic ExpectationOur basic Expectation

Long wavelength absorption properties of our atmosphere increase the surface temperature- Water vapor is the dominant effect, followed by CO2

Page 3: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Ice Core data

Provides compelling qualitative evidence of the relation between temperature and CO2

But time resolution is insufficient to truly show if CO2 is a driver or follower of temperature change

Page 4: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Hockey Stick Problems

Role of urbanization may not be adequately account for

Average temperature of the Earth may not be a physically meaningful quantity.

Reliability of multi-century record is questionable

Two D representation is most convincing

Page 5: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

MethaneMethane

Potential role of methane is larger than Potential role of methane is larger than CO2CO2

GWP = 21GWP = 21 Scales with population growthScales with population growth Released from permafrostReleased from permafrost Released from hydrate depositsReleased from hydrate deposits Emissions now rising again due to global Emissions now rising again due to global

wetlands returning from prolonged wetlands returning from prolonged droughtdrought

Page 6: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Competition among anthropogenic Competition among anthropogenic forcesforces

Page 7: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Feedbacks are huge uncertaintyFeedbacks are huge uncertainty

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Solubility of CO2 is decreasing; Solubility of CO2 is decreasing; Ocean sink now less than beforeOcean sink now less than before

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Ocean PH RisingOcean PH Rising

Page 10: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Oceans no longer scale with Oceans no longer scale with increasing emissionsincreasing emissions

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Future ScenariosFuture Scenarios

Page 12: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Really, Three ChoicesReally, Three Choices

BAU because we can’t learn or don’t BAU because we can’t learn or don’t know how to do anything differently know how to do anything differently react to disasters as they come react to disasters as they come

A1T: Alternative energy technology A1T: Alternative energy technology and fuels will come in timeand fuels will come in time

B1: We do what Cronon suggests B1: We do what Cronon suggests understand that wilderness is understand that wilderness is everywhere and behave accordinglyeverywhere and behave accordingly

Page 13: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Carbon TradingCarbon Trading

Emission space is fixed Emission space is fixed bid or bid or contract on emissionscontract on emissions

Effective trading requires many Effective trading requires many sources of generationsources of generation

What process determines size of What process determines size of emission space?emission space?

What is the penalty for exceeding What is the penalty for exceeding your emissions cap?your emissions cap?

Page 14: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Carbon MarketCarbon Market

In principle is very large, but how In principle is very large, but how oversees it, accounts for it, verifies oversees it, accounts for it, verifies it?it? Note that the CDM is

supposed to encourage China to switch from Coal to Natural Gas to lower its share of the carbon market. This is not happening to date

Page 15: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Carbon, Capture and Carbon, Capture and StorageStorage

Without a real market, what’s the Without a real market, what’s the incentive for CCS?incentive for CCS?

CCS technologies are not mature and CCS technologies are not mature and need to be tested.need to be tested.

Porosity of sequestration needs to be Porosity of sequestration needs to be tested: only sure reserve is deep tested: only sure reserve is deep oceanocean

CCS the most politically sensible CCS the most politically sensible pathway to stablizationpathway to stablization

Page 16: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Stabilization and WedgesStabilization and Wedges

1 Wedge = 1 Gigaton of Carbon per 1 Wedge = 1 Gigaton of Carbon per yearyear

This is a global effortThis is a global effort Again, real carbon market could help Again, real carbon market could help

provide various incentivesprovide various incentives And remember, global carbon And remember, global carbon

emissions are now increasing emissions are now increasing annuallyannually

Page 17: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Gaining a WedgeGaining a Wedge

• Increase fuel economy for 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg

• or, decrease annual miles for 2 billion 30 mpg cars from 10,000 to 5000

• Efficient buildings: cut carbon emissions in buildings by 25%

• Increase coal fired electricity efficiency from 40% to 60% using advanced high temperature materials

Page 18: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

IPCC ScenariosIPCC Scenarios

Once again, three real choicesOnce again, three real choices Remain Market DrivenRemain Market Driven Hope that technological leaps occurHope that technological leaps occur Adopt the kind of global morality/consciousness Adopt the kind of global morality/consciousness

that is needed to reduce personal consumption.that is needed to reduce personal consumption. Electricity use scale as (pop. Growth)Electricity use scale as (pop. Growth)3.53.5

Increasing global inequity should no longer be Increasing global inequity should no longer be tolerated. Aren’t all men created equal?tolerated. Aren’t all men created equal?

Your generation is inheriting the legacy of greedYour generation is inheriting the legacy of greed

Page 19: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Resource DepletionResource Depletion

Global resource use took a sudden Global resource use took a sudden uptick starting around 2000uptick starting around 2000

The world is currently in the most The world is currently in the most unsustainable epoch in history !unsustainable epoch in history !

Page 20: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

We Are At Peak Oil!!We Are At Peak Oil!!

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Global Carbon Intensity is Global Carbon Intensity is IncreasingIncreasing

Page 22: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Sustainability, My AssSustainability, My Ass

Page 23: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Markets need an ethical dimensionMarkets need an ethical dimension

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Waveform of FuckednessWaveform of Fuckedness

Page 25: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Raisins for EveryoneRaisins for Everyone

Page 26: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Along with MalariaAlong with Malaria

Page 27: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

And we Policy Wank our way alongAnd we Policy Wank our way along

""The United States is committed to The United States is committed to reducingreducing the the greenhouse gas intensity of the American greenhouse gas intensity of the American economy by 18 percent over the 10-year period economy by 18 percent over the 10-year period from 2002 to 2012.from 2002 to 2012. “ “

Whoops

Page 28: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Which box do we want to be in?Which box do we want to be in?

Page 29: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

What to Do?What to Do?

Subversive videos on You Tube don’t hurtSubversive videos on You Tube don’t hurt

Drive less; Period. Period. Period.Drive less; Period. Period. Period.

Act according to Cronon’s imperative: Act according to Cronon’s imperative: Wilderness is EverywhereWilderness is Everywhere

Properly factor in avoidance costs in Properly factor in avoidance costs in economic modeling of climate changeeconomic modeling of climate change

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20 Million College Students Have inherited this world

Page 31: Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change.

Your Choice Matrix: Give up or Not: