IN THE CIRCUIT COURT FOR THE SEVENTH JUDICIAL …...Assembly’s Legislative Research Unit, attached...
Transcript of IN THE CIRCUIT COURT FOR THE SEVENTH JUDICIAL …...Assembly’s Legislative Research Unit, attached...
IN THE CIRCUIT COURT FOR THE SEVENTH JUDICIAL CIRCUIT COURT SANGAMON COUNTY
SPRINGFIELD RIGHT TO LIFE, et. al., and Plaintiffs, v. FELICIA NORWOOD, Director of the Department of Healthcare and Family Services, et al., Defendants.
) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )
Case No. 2017-MR-1032 Hon. Jennifer M. Ascher, Judge Presiding
DECLARATION OF PROFESSOR MICHAEL NEW
I, Professor Michael New, on oath, state as follows:
1. I am over 18 years of age and otherwise competent to make this Declaration.
2. I am professor at Ave Maria University, teaching courses in economics and
American politics.
3. As noted in the CV attached hereto as Exhibit A, I hold a bachelor’s degree from
Dartmouth College, where I double-majored in economics modified with mathematics and
government, graduating magna cum laude and being invited to membership in Phi Beta Kappa. I
also hold a master’s degree in statistics and a Ph.D. in political science from Stanford University.
4. Also as noted in my CV, I have published, taught, and researched extensively on
economic issues in relation to state and federal legislative and regulatory policy on abortion,
including legislation providing for public funding of abortion.
5. I have analyzed the impact of House Bill 40 on abortion rates and state finances.
6. My study of the Hyde Amendment which was published by the Lozier Institute in
2016 found that public funding of abortion through Medicaid increased the abortion rate by 1.52
per every thousand women of childbearing age.
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7. This estimate was based on 7 peer reviewed studies which analyzed public
funding of abortion. Statistical outliers were excluded and this should be thought of as a
conservative estimate
8. According to the U.S. Census Bureau there were 2,549.621 women of
childbearing age (15-44) living in Illinois in 2016. (1.52/1000)*(2,549,621) = 3875.
9. According to the latest (2016) statistics from the Illinois Department of Health,
found at http://www.dph.illinois.gov/data-statistics/vital-statistics/abortion-statistics, 38,382
abortions were performed in Illinois. Adding 3875 to that number yields 42,257 abortions.
10. According to the Guttmacher Institute’s latest 2014 report,
https://www.guttmacher.org/report/characteristics-us-abortion-patients-2014, in states that
publicly fund abortions, an average of 51% of abortions are paid for by taxpayers. Applying
these numbers to Illinois would mean that Illinois taxpayers would be responsible for
approximately 21,551 abortions under House Bill 40.
11. Plaintiffs in this case have also cited Guttmacher’s 2014 report, which states that
75% of abortions are performed on those qualifying as having incomes below 200% of the
Federal Poverty Level. Illinois provides Medicaid coverage for those up to 213% of the Federal
Poverty Level, http://www.dhs.state.il.us/page.aspx?item=14091. If the Plaintiffs are correct that
the 75% number will be more reflective of the experience of publicly funded abortion in Illinois,
that would mean that Illinois taxpayers would be responsible for approximately 31,692 abortions
under House Bill 40.
12. According to 2015 data from the Guttmacher Institute, Medicaid abortions cost
taxpayers $451 on average. Applying this number in Illinois would mean that Illinois taxpayers
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are responsible for $9,719,501 (at the 51% level) or $14,293,092 (at the 75% level) in abortion
costs annually.
13. However, I have been provided an April 4, 2015 report from the Illinois General
Assembly’s Legislative Research Unit, attached hereto as Exhibit B, showing the Illinois-specific
costs for Medicaid abortions, which appear to be higher than the national averages. Over the 10
years surveyed, the total cost for the 2778 abortions provided was $2,020,185, an average of
$727 per abortion. Over the past 5 years, the total cost for the 1454 abortions provided was
$1,545,617, an average of $1063 per abortion.
14. If these Illinois Medicaid abortion costs continue under House Bill 40, that would
mean that Illinois taxpayers would be responsible for $15,667,577 (10 year avg/51%),
$22,908,713 (5 year avg/51%), $23,040,084 (10 year avg/75%), or $33,688,596 (5 year
avg/75%).
15. In sum, if House Bill 40 is allowed to go into effect, the taxpayers of Illinois will
be responsible for roughly 21,500 to 31,500 abortions, at a total cost of nearly $10 million per
year at the low end, with a middle range of roughly $15 to $23 million, and a possibility, if
Plaintiffs are correct, of upwards of $33.5 million at the high end.
16. All of the sources cited, methods employed, and statistics provided here are
typical and unremarkable for use in my field of expertise. My calculations rely upon the accuracy
of the provided sources. Due to the expedited nature of these proceedings, my time to provide
this analysis was necessarily limited. With additional time, I would be able to refine this analysis
further.
FURTHER DECLARANT SAYETH NAUGHT.
Michael J. New Ave Maria University
Department of Economics
5050 Ave Maria Blvd.
Ave Maria, FL 34142
(239) 280-1569
Employment
Ave Maria University
Associate Professor, July 2017 - present
Ave Maria University
Visiting Associate Professor, July 2015 – July 2017
University of Michigan – Dearborn
Assistant Professor, August 2011 – June 2015
University of Alabama
Assistant Professor, August 2004 – August 2011
Harvard-MIT Data Center
Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, August 2002-August 2004
Education
Stanford University
Ph.D. Political Science, June 2002
Dissertation: A Comparison of Fiscal Discipline Measures Passed Through The Citizen Initiative
To Fiscal Discipline Measures Enacted Through Other Means.
Reading Committee: Morris Fiorina, Simon Jackman, John Cogan
Fields: American Politics, Political Organizations, Political Economy (GSB sequence)
Stanford University
M.S. Statistics, January 2002
Dartmouth College
B.A. with High Honors, Government, June 1997
B.A. Economics Modified with Mathematics, June 1997
Magna Cum Laude
Phi Beta Kappa Society
Courses Taught
Undergraduate Courses
“Economics 250: Family, Gender, and Society” Ave Maria University, Fall 2017, Fall 2016
“Economics 202: Introductory Microeconomics.” Ave Maria University, Various Semesters
“Economics 302: Intermediate Microeconomics.” Ave Maria University, Various Semesters
“Economics 332: Game Theory and Strategic Thinking” Ave Maria University, Fall 2017, Fall
2016, Fall 2015
“Economics 415: Fiscal Policy” Ave Maria University, Spring 2017, Spring 2016
Teaching Interests
Economics
Microeconomics, Game Theory, Fiscal Policy
American Politics
Introduction to American Politics, State and Local Government,
Statistical Methods
Introductory Statistics, Intermediate Statistics
Research Interests
American Politics
State and Local Politics, Budgetary Politics, Direct Democracy
Public Administration and Public Policy
Public Finance, Fiscal Constitutions, Morality Policy, Health and Welfare Policy
Published Academic Papers
“Analyzing the Impact of State Level Contraception Mandates on Public Health Outcomes.”
Ave Maria Law Review. Summer 2015.
“Analyzing the Effect of State Level Anti-Abortion Legislation in the Post Casey Era: A Re-
Assessment.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly. September 2014.
“Analyzing the Effect of State Level Anti-Abortion Legislation in the Post Casey Era.” State
Politics and Policy Quarterly. March 2011.
“State Education Investments and Economic Growth in America: A Path Analysis with Cross-
National Controls” with Norman Baldwin and Stephen Borrelli. Social Science Quarterly. March
2011.
“U.S. Tax and Expenditure Limitations: A Comparative Political Analysis.” State Politics and
Policy Quarterly. Spring 2010.
“Direct Democracy, Public Opinion, and Public Policy.” PS: Political Science and Politics,
October 2009.
“Starve the Beast: A Further Examination.” Cato Journal. Fall 2009.
“Using Natural Experiments to Analyze the Impact of State Legislation on the Incidence of
Abortion.” Catholic Social Science Review. Fall 2009.
“Analyzing The Welfare Caseload Decline from 1996-2002.” Cato Journal. Fall 2008.
“Analyzing the Effect of Anti-Abortion Legislation on the Incidence of Abortion Among
Minors.” Catholic Social Science Review. Fall 2007.
"The Effect of State Regulations on State Health Insurance Premiums." ICFAI Journal of
Insurance Law. May 2006.
Academic Book Reviews
Review of David Primo’s Rules and Restraint. Public Choice. July 2009
Academic Letters to the Editor
“Preventing Unintended Pregnancies by Providing No-Cost Contraception.” With David Paton.
Obstetrics and Gynecology. April 2013
Book Chapters
“Economic Growth in the States of the United States: Findings and Lessons from Four Empirical
Studies.” with Norm Baldwin and Will McCracken. In Economic Growth in the 21st Century;
Perspectives, Role of Governmental Policies, Potential and Constraints. Hauppage, NY; Nova
Science Publishers 2014.
“Are Declining Welfare Caseloads a Sign of Successful Welfare Reform?” in Taking Sides:
Clashing Views on Economic Issues. Ed. Frank Bonello New York: McGraw-Hill 2003. pp.
265-275.
Papers in Preparation For Review at Academic Journals
“Analyzing the Impact of "Analyzing the Effect of Anti-Abortion Parental Involvement Laws”
Under Review at Social Science Quarterly. (Previously Received a Revise and Resubmit)
"The Citizen Initiative, Public Opinion, and State Fiscal Outcomes" Under Review at Social
Science Quarterly. (Previously Received a Revise and Resubmit)
Papers Presented at Academic Conferences
“The Citizen Initiative, Public Opinion, and Abortion Policy” Presented at the Annual State
Politics Conference. May 19-21, 2016, Richardson, TX. Also presented at the Annual Meeting
of the Midwest Political Science Association. April 7-10, 2014, Chicago, IL.
“Public Opinion Toward Abortion in Hard Case Scenarios” Presented at the Annual Meeting of
the Midwest Political Science Association. April 7-10, 2014, Chicago, IL.
“Analyzing the Effect of Anti-Abortion Parental Involvement Laws on the Incidence of Abortion
Among Minors.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association.
August 28-31, 2008. Boston, MA.
Amicus Brief
Brief: On Writ of Certariori in Zubik v. Burwell in Support of Petitioners (U.S. Supreme Court
argued March 23, 2016; Filed January 11, 2016)
Editorials and Book Reviews
The Hyde Amendment’s Lasting Legacy” TheHill.com, September 30, 2016
“No Funding for Planned Parenthood – No Problem” Washington Examiner, August 24, 2015
Review of Clarke Forsythe’s Abuse of Discretion. The Washington Times, October 13, 2013
“Casey at 20 Shows Progress Despite Judicial Hitch” Roll Call, June 25, 2012
“The Return of TABOR” The Washington Times, July 14, 2010
“Bailing Out the States” The Washington Times. January 14, 2009
“The Right Way to Bail Out California” The San Jose Mercury News. January 3, 2009
Invited Presentations
“Pro-Life Success in the States: Strategies for the Current Decade and Beyond.” Presentation
Given at University of Kansas Medical Center on December 6, 2016 in Kansas City, MO. Also
given at Wayne State University School of Medicine on April 9, 2015, Detroit, MI.
“Public Opinion on Sanctity of Life Issues: What Does The Data Tell Us” Presentation given at
Notre Dame’s Vitae Institute in 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, and 2011, South Bend, IN.
“Analyzing the Effect of State Level Anti-Abortion Legislation in the Post Casey Era.”
Presentation given at Notre Dame’s Vitae Institute in 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, and
2011, South Bend, IN.
“An Analysis of State Level Contraception Mandates.” Presentation given at “The Future of the
Families and Family Law.” Brigham Young University Law School, October 10, 2014, Provo,
UT.
“Taming Leviathan: Do Tax and Expenditure Limits Work?” American Enterprise Institute
Policy Forum. June 12, 2013, Washington, DC.
“Contemporary Social Science Research on Sanctity of Life Issues.” Presentation given at Notre
Dame University’s Center for Ethics and Culture. July 8, 2009, South Bend, IN.
Comments on John Lott’s Freedomnomics. Cato Institute Book Forum. August 14, 2007,
Washington, DC.
“Drafting Effective Fiscal Limits.” Presentation given to Rhode Island Public Expenditure
Council (RIPEC). July 2005, Providence, RI.
“Process and Institutions: Approaches to Responsible Budgeting.” Goldwater Institute Fiscal
Policy Conference, February 3rd, 2005. Phoenix, AZ.
“Testimony on Model Legislation on Tax and Expenditure Limitations.” American Legislative
Exchange Council 2003 Annual Meeting. July 30-August 2, 2003. Washington, DC. Testimony
also given at meetings in Summer and Fall of 2002.
“Tax Limitation after California’s Prop 13.” Cato Institute Policy Forum. June 19, 2003,
Washington, DC.
Research Grants
$10,000 from the Charlotte Lozier Institute To Analyze State Level Contraception Mandates.
Spring 2014
Fellowships
Witherspoon Institute, Bradley Fellow 2008-2009 academic year
American Political Science Association, Centennial Center Visiting Scholar, Summer 2009
Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace, Academic Fellowship, May 2007
Weaver Fellow, Intercollegiate Studies Institute, 2001-2002
Honors and Awards
George Mason University Foundation Award, 2005
Intercollegiate Studies Institute’s Director’s Award, 2000
Disciplinary Service
Chair, Public Administration Section, Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science
Association, Spring 2008. Chicago IL
Editorial Board Member, State Politics and Policy Quarterly (2007-2011)
Invited by the General Social Survey (GSS) to write a memo suggesting topics for updated
survey questions on various sanctity of life issues
Referee, American Journal of Political Science
Referee, Journal of Politics
Referee, Political Research Quarterly
Referee, American Politics Review
Referee, Eastern Economic Journal
Referee, Public Budgeting and Finance
Referee, Publius
Referee, State Politics and Policy Quarterly
Referee, State and Local Government Review
Referee, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management
Referee, Journal of Women, Politics, and Policy
Referee, Social Forces
Referee, The Review of Black Political Economy
Referee, National Tax Journal
Discussant, Midwest Political Science Association Meetings, 2014, 2013, 2008, 2006, 2003
Discussant, American Political Science Association Meetings, 2005
Discussant Southern Political Science Association Meetings, 2005
University and Departmental Service
Ave Maria University
Program Director, Political Economy and Government, 2016-2017 academic year
Member, Honor Council, 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 academic year
Member, Sophomore Success Committee, 2016-2017 academic year
Search Committee for Faculty Member in Business, 2016-2017 academic year
Member, Institutional Review Board, Spring Semester 2016
Faculty Advisor, AEI at Ave Maria University, 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 academic year
University of Michigan -- Dearborn
Co-Director, University of Michigan Dearborn’s Social Science Research Colloquium Fall 2011-
Fall 2014
Member, CASL Curriculum Committee, Winter Semester 2014 and Winter Semester 2015
Member, Social and Behavioral Analysis Learning Outcomes Subcommittee, 2013-2014
academic year
Graduate Integrity Board, 2013-2014 academic year
Search Committee for Assistant Professor in Environmental Politics and Policy, 2012-2013
academic year
The University of Alabama
Director, University of Alabama’s Washington Experience Summer Internship Program,
2005 – 2011
Vice-President, Phi Beta Kappa Society, 2009-2010 Academic Year
Acting Director, University of Alabama’s Masters in Public Administration (MPA) Program,
Spring 2006
Dissertation Committee, Sam Clovis. “Federalism, Homeland Security, and National
Preparedness: A Case Study in the Development of Public Policy.”
Dissertation Committee, Justice Kali. “Innovation Diffusion and the Reinvention of Domestic
Violence Policy Within State Welfare Programs: Influences of Adoption of the Family Violence
Option and Domestic Violence Policy.”
Honors College Research Project Advisor. Will McCracken. “A Proposed Redesign of the
Alabama State Constitution.”
Member, Department Graduate Studies Committee, 2009-2010 and 2007-2008 Academic
Years
Member, Department Undergraduate Studies Committee, 2010-2011, 2006-2007, 2005-2006,
and 2004-2005 Academic Years
I.)N-ATI{AN P v\/OI FF.ASs')CIATF DIRECTORALAN R, KRCNFR. EX'CUTIV€ OIRSCTOR
April 4,2015
ABORTIONS FUITDED BY MTDICAID
We obtained information on state-funded abortions froa theDepartmeat of Healthcare and Family Seryices (DHf.Sl. I[e are alsoseeking information oa abortions subsidized by Cook County Healthand Hospital System, but have not heard back from the person weasked.
DHFS stalf told us that there were four reasons for Medicaid-funded abortions: rape; incest; to save the woman's life; and to protecther health. Ms.Wolf asked for information on how those four reasonswere determiaed. We asked DH['S for information oa that - including acitation to an authority listing those four reasons - but have not yetreceived a full answer.
Table 1 on the uext page shows the aumber of abortloas funded byMedicaid in llliaois in each of the 1O fiscal years, and their estimatedcoasts.
LEGISLATIVE RESEARCH UNIT2?2 s. CoL!-EGE ' sulrE 3Ol
SPRINGFIELD, ILLINOIS 62704. I894PHoNE: 211!782'6851 o FAx: 217/'785-'7572
www. r LGA.Gov,/coM M tss loN/LRU/LR u HoM E. HTM L
2
Table 1: Medicaid-t\rnded Abortions in Illinois by Reason, ild Estimated Pa5rments,
FYs 2005-2014
Fbcalyear
2005200520f,720082009
2010201 r2At220132014
Estitnatedpayments
$ 2A5434312
76,836195,45t77132
298,W0248568313,8W4t 5Ot243,371
Protect Savewoman's woman'shealth lde Incest
tl 2 0204050 12135 2t 7t42 l8 2
Rape
220
322400159
Total
3524
381563321
108156142t6789
20l0l3l6l5
00000
3& 49235 201tOl 256177 3604t 145
Totals 11020 126 11 rfiar 2:t7S $2,020,185
Source: E-mail message from Illinois Department of Hcalthcare and Family Services l,egislative Affairs staffon behalf of DHFS Bureau of Federal Finance, March 5,2015-
We also asked the Departments of Publicwhether they spend anything on abogtion.both departments said-they-do not.3
Eealth and Correcti.onsSpokespersons for
we hope this information is herpful. please let us know if wecan be of further assi-stance.
Assistant Deputy Director for Research
TJB: SMM
Notes
1. Telephone conversation with caryn stancik, Executive Direc_tor of communications, cook-county Health and HospitarsSystem, Chicago, March L2, 20L5.
2. Telephone conversation with DEIS Legislative Affairs staffon behalf of DHFS Bureau of Federal Finance, March G, 2015.See also DHFS, Handbook for Practitioners Renderjng l{edicalservices (chapter A-200: Policy and procedures For MedicalServices), at A-223.8t Termination of Pregnancy-fnducedAbortions (Aug, 20L01, downloaded from DHFS rntlrnet site.
Tltomas J. lBazai
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