In crisis – Energy, the basis of civilisation
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In crisis –
Energy, the basis of civilisation
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Population +6billion Doubles every 30 years
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POPULATION – IS THERE NO END?
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Relationship between Energy & Income
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FERTILTY V WEALTH
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THE NECESSITIES OF LIFE – WHAT WOULD LIFE BE LIKE WITHOUT CHEAP EASY TO USE ENERGY?
Energy Need RequirementSHELTER HIGHWARMTH HIGHFOOD HIGHWATER LOWWASTE DISPOSAL MODERATE
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Coal production peaked in Britain in 1913Oil started to replace coal in 1930- a liquid easier to use than a solid. GDP tied to energy use!
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World daily oil production –millions of barrels /day – Have we hit the peak or is it yet to come?
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Peak Oil concept- oil is a finite resource – sooner or latersupplies will dwindle and demand will not be met or alternatives will replace oil.
FT 15 Sep 2011
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Colin Campbell shows the peak of oil production has passed.Others are not so sure! BUT GAS IS STILL TO PEAK
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Pric
e $/
bbl
$100
$50
$10
1950-592000-09
Light green oil price – money of the dayDark green reference 2010
Oil price 1861 - 2010
Today oil price $125
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Why does Peak Oil matter?
Short answer –•when demand threatens to exceed supply the price goes up• and a world recession follows until demand drops.•With hardships for the many all round the world
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The Italian and Greek protests - just the beginning of more widespread unrest?Without cheap energy can we afford our present life style!
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International Energy Agency –World Energy Supply Forecast until 2030Note fossil fuels predominate- over 75% in 2030
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Solving the crisis?
1. Explore for and produce more oil and gas2. Produce more from existing fields3. Recruit bright young people to add brain
power to finding and extracting the maximum amounts of oil and gas.
4. Speed up the development of alternatives
5. Change the way we live
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Can we achieve forecast?
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1. Explore for and produce more oil and gas
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2000m
500m
Water depth
West Africa- deep waterMany big oil fields
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Tullow and partners are spending about $1million every daydrilling deepwater wells offshore West Africa with rigs like this
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The Arctic6% of the globe with potential for400 B bbls more oil, about 1/3 of existing reservesProblems – ice,ownership of territory, production systems
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Global warming is a reality- These young ladies are sitting on the North Pole(Photo Courtesy DMcInroy)
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Shale Gas – The Fuel of the future?
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2. Produce more from existing fields
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Use 4D – Repeat 3D surveys to find where oil is left in reservoir
Maximise oil recovery
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Maximise oil recovery
Draugen Field Norway –courtesy Schlumberger
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Use miscible flood to recover over 15% more oil
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Tertiary Recovery in Texas.Reservoir is flooded with CO2 and 17% more oil recovered
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3. Recruit bright young people
Youth and brilliance plus age and experience is a winning formulato find more oil and gas
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Cutting from Financial Times 29 September 2011
Y
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Cambridge Oxford Aberdeen Imperial0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
OtherFinanceIndustryAcademia
Destination of Post Graduates from certain Universities in UK
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4. Speed up the development of alternatives
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Y
Cutting from the Financial Times 29 Sep 2011
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Change the way we live – isthere any hope?
Newt Gingrich said avoid smaller cars because gun racks could not be fitted in them
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Conclusions• The crisis is now. It is not the banks fault. We have run out of cheap energy.• We must produce more fossil fuels
particularly oil to give time to develop cheap alternatives
• We need more bright young people to work at discovering and producing oil and gas in difficult places
• Or accept a lower standard of living and change the way we live. This may not happen without a revolution.