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Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioIBIMET-CNR
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Biological cycle of desert locustSchistocerca gregaria (Forskal).
Solitary Adult
Hopper(5 juvenil stages)
Gregary egg laying80 eggs
Gregary Adult
Solitary egg laying90-150 eggs
Eggs
3 to 5 generations per year in Africa
swarms
hatching
migration
Recession
• In recession periods desert locusts concentrate in semi-arid and arid regions of Africa, near East and south-West Asia
• In plague periods they expand over enormous areas covering the 20% of the total surface of the world
Plague
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
A biblical plague• Pharaonic times plagues • Plagues in Europe reported in 18th century• Twenty century plagues: 1926-1934; 1940-1948;
1949-1963; 1967-1969; 1986-1989; 2003-2004• In 2004 around 4 million hectars have been
infested in West Africa. The infestation extended from Sudan to Cape Vert. More severely affected countries: Mauritania, Niger, Mali and Senegal.
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Migratory movements
Spring Autumn
source FAO
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Importance of meteorological parameters in desert locust cycle
• In the reproduction phase : soil humidity for eggs opening
• In the juvenil phase (hopper) : rainfall amounts favourable for vegetation growth accelerate instar development supporting large populations of young locusts
• In the migratory phase : wind driven movements
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Rainfall amounts in the reproduction phase
• Are important for the hatching phase and for hopper development (vegetation growth)
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Favourable conditions for eggs laying and hatcing
Data source Elaboration: IBIMET-CNR
Early start of rainy season in the Sahel
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Weather driven migration
• Desert locust fly with the winds over long distances:– 1954 : North-Africa to British Islands– 1988 : West-Africa to the Caribbean (5000km)
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Skyways (Vertical Wind Anomaly)
Small infestations in Mediterranean Europe were reported in 2003 and 2004 summer associated with favourable winds
2003 2004
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Skyways in May 2004
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Climate sensitiveness of locust
Climatic caracteristic of peak years
• Favourable winds direction and persistence
• High rainfall amounts at the beginning and at the end of the cropping season in Sub-saharian Africa (start and lenght of cropping season)
• High rainfall amounts in Spring in North Africa
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
The high inter annual variability in locust infestation is mainly due to the
high climate sensitiveness of their reproduction and diffusion phases
Climate sensitiveness of locust
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Parameters for predictability in different lifecycle phases
• Reproduction phase: – Soil humidity– Vegetation development– Lenght of the cropping season in the Sahel
• Migration phase: – Wind– Vegetation
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Time scales and tools for prediction
• Short term forecasting
• Medium term predictions
• Long term predictions
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Short term monitoring
• Monitoring of NDVI anomaly (NOAA, Spot Vegetation)
• Rainfall estimates (Meteosat)
The continuous monitoring of rain and vegetation conditions provide important information for monitoring Desert Locust
habitats and forecasting locust development
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Seasonal vegetation development
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Seasonal vegetation development in southern Mali – AP3A Project
Short term monitoring
NDVI anomaly over north-Africa and sahel in 2004
Source NASA
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Short term monitoringHOWI zone 3 (Mauritania)
Humidity anomaly in the early season
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Short term monitoringRainfall estimates from satellite
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Short term monitoring6 hours rainfall estimates from satellite
April 29, 2004, 06h00
April 29, 2004, 12h00
Short term monitoringRainfall estimates from satellite
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Animation sequence every six hours Oct 13-15, 2004 www.ibimet.cnr.it/Case/sahel/
Short term monitoringRainfall estimates from NWM
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Rainfall estimates from NWM(96 hours
forecasting)
Medium term predictionsCrop season forecasting Risk Zones ZAR (AGRHYMET)
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Medium term predictions
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Medium term predictions
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Medium term predictions
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Long term prediction
Seasonal forecasting:• SST• Geopotential height• ITCZ• HOWI Hydrological Onset and Withdrawal Index
• Previous season late rains
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Sea Surface Temperature
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Geopotential Anomaly
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Hadley CellMass streamfunction [1E10 kg/s]
(NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1971-2002)
Hadley, Ferrel and polar cell
Changes of Hadley cells affect the descending
branch of ITCZ
Seasonal migration of descending branches of Hadley cell
Seasonal migration of
ITCZ
ITCZ follows sun declination
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
• To optimize actions to fight infestations: – On time pesticide availability– Avoiding of accumulation of potentially obsolete
pesticide stocks– Planning of Airplanes campains
• To provide information for the Food crisis prevention process
• To provide an assessment of potential impact on food security
Objectives for a meteorological warning systems for locust control
(MeWaLCo)
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
The food crisis prevention process
The food crisis prevention process: Regional crisis Scale of
event
(frequency)
Potentially affected
population
Impact
Information and actions
May June July Aug
Regional scale
famine
(1 year every 10)
Million of inhabitants
Survival depends on food aid and
on International
Organisations
PRESAO Warning
ITCZwarning
and international mobilisation
ZAR, SISP Prediction,
terrain missions to identify the
dimension of the crisis; Logistical
planning for food aid
Identification of vulnerable areas;Stock distribution
Crisis prevention
Crisis management
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Impact assessment
The impact of outbreaks must be evaluated in function of the vulnerability
context of the affected territory
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Information flow for an information system for locust control
Choc
Agricultural campaign monitoring
Identification of vulnerable zones and groups
(regional/national/local)
Production of scenarios
Decision making
Control actions
Monitoring of impacts
Start of locust outbreaks
Production/diffusion of information
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Availability operational tools
• Many decision support systems for food security already provides operational imputs that can be useful for locust monitoring
• The “convergence of evidence” methodology can be applied to locust early warning
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
Climate changes and locust changesNDVI trends 1982-2000 - first decade of May
Data NOAA-AVHRR – elaboration IBIMET CNR
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
ConclusionsThe Locust Control process needs operational tools
over different periods of the year:- Early seasonal prediction- Crop season monitoring (start and lenght)- Rainfall estimation from satellite- Rainfall estimation from NWM- Biomasse estimation - Impact matrix assessment
All these tools are developed by IBIMET CNR in the framework of MeWaLCo Pilot Project
Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models
G. Maracchi and L. GenesioWMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004