1

Implications of the climate change debate on land tenure in the

Amazon

Paulo BarretoSenior Researcher at Imazon

Climate change

Adaptation Mitigation

ReforestationAforestation

Avoided deforestaton

Biofuel

Increasedagricultural land price

Displacement of cattle ranching

Increased land use productivity

Increased environmental enforcement

Creation of protected areas

Payment environmental

servicesIncreased

deforestation in new occupations

Reclamation ofpublic lands

Increased deforestaion

in old ocupations

Conventional 2nd generation

Non-agricultural land

3

The Brazilian Amazon Total size:

5.2 million Km2

Original forest: 4.1 million Km2

~17% deforested

~ 23 million people

45% poor

Deforestation data: Inpe, 2007

4

Messy land tenure situation in the Amazon

Lack of unified land cadastre

Overlap between public and private lands

Huge amount of informal possessions

Million of hectares illegally documented

5

Who owns the Amazon?

Protected areas 210 41%

Unclaimed public lands

120 24%

Private 178 35%

Rough estimates of land tenure status (million hectares and %)

6

Unclear status of private holdings in the Amazon

Titled + posseion

3 2%

Titled 133 74%

Informal possession

42 24%

“Private land” tenure status in 2003 (million hectares and %)

Source: National Institute of Agrarian Reform and Colonization (Incra)

Unclear future of mitigation

------------------------------------

Adoption of biofuels

How much? How fast?

----------------------------------------

Development of 2nd generation biofuels?

Oil prices?

Impacts on the environment and food price?

8

Projected area to be allocated to

biofuels:

32 million hectares worldwide by 20301

11 million or more hectares in Brazil2

1 Fraiture, C., Giordano, M. & Yongsong, L. Biofuels and implications for agricultural water use: blue impacts of green energy. International Water Management Institute. Colombo, Sri Lanka.

2 Assis, V; Elstrodt, H. & Silva. C. F.C. 2007. Positioning Brazil for biofuels success. The McKinsey Quarterly. McKinsey & Company.

9

Agricultural price increase due to the adoption of biofuels

41

66

3029

4549

2123

43 43

16

76

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Corn Oilseeds Sugarcane Wheat

% i

ncre

ase i

n r

ela

tio

to

baseli

ne

Conventional biofuel

Conventional + 2nd generation

Conventional + 2nd generation + increased crop productivity

Source of data: Msangi, S. et al. 2007. Global Scenarios for Biofuels: Impacts and Implications. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

% increase by 2020 compared to 2005

10

Biofuels would escalate the displacement of cattle

ranching to the Amazon

Biofuel

Displacement of cattle ranching

to the Amazon

Sugarcane in old pastsures outside

Amazon

Corn and soybeans in old pastsures inside

and outside Amazon

11

Growth of cattle herd in the Amazon

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

-

30.0

60.0

90.0

120.0

150.0

180.0

210.0

Mill

ion

ca

ttle

he

rd

Remainder of Brazil Amazon

Cattle heads in the Amazon and remainder of Brazil

Amazon´s share of the Brazilian cattle herd

12

Growth of sugarcane plantation in Brazil

Hectares of sugarcane1990-2006

Brazil´s ethanol exports 2001-2006

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

Hec

tare

s

Total Amazon Remainder of Brazil

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

1000

tons

13

Decrease of cattle herd in São Paulo State – the main sugarcane

producer

São Paulo State

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

Mill

ion

cat

tle

hea

ds

Million cattle head in São Paulo – 1990-2006

14

Growth of soybean plantations in Brazil and in the Amazon

-

8.0

16.0

24.0

32.0

40.0

48.0

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Mil

lio

n h

ecta

res

Legal Amazon Rremainder of Brazil

15

Cattle ranching growth associated with deforestation

in the Amazon

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70M

illi

on

cat

tle

hea

ds

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1,00

0 K

m2

def

ore

sted

Cattle heads 1,000 Km2 deforested

16

Growth of pastureland price in central Pará State

-100200300400500600700800900

1,000

R$/

hec

tare

Source of data: Anualpec 2002, 2004 and 2007.

17

Growth of agricultural establishments in the Amazon

Mostly occupation of public lands

116

121

131

100

110

120

130

1985 1996 2006

Mill

ion

he

cta

res

Source of data: IBGE – Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics

18

Case: growth of cattle herd and landholdings in Novo Progresso

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1992 1998 2005

Num

ber o

f hol

ding

s

(0.30)

0.20

0.70

1.20

1.70

2.20

Mill

ion

hect

ares

Number of holdinsgs Million hectares

Number and area of

landholdings

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Cattl

e he

ads

Cattle heads

19

Occupations to force land reform

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004

Num

ber

of fa

mili

esNumber of families involved in

occupations 1997- 2004

Source of data: Comissão Pastoral da Terra (Catholic Church Land Commission)

20

Examples of measures to deal with occupations and conflicts

0

5.000.000

10.000.000

15.000.000

20.000.000

25.000.000

30.000.000

35.000.000

40.000.000

He

cta

res

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

Pro

jeto

s

Hectares 1.779. 3.904. 6.928. 9.097. 10.88 12.47 13.89 14.47 21.70 28.94 36.17

Projetos 167 347 606 883 1.151 1.289 1.490 1.609 1.849 2.089 2.329

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Growth of land reform settlements Creation of protected areas

21

But….

~ 40 million hectares continues as

informal possessions

Unfinished review of documentation of 76

million hectares of rural properties

Delay for creating unified land cadastre

22

Conclusions Climate change pressure may escalate

occupation pressure

Georeferenced cadastre necessary to monitor avoided deforestation

The Brazilian government is ill equipped

Significant investment necessary