Implications of climate change for tropical Pacific · Implications of climate change for fisheries...
Transcript of Implications of climate change for tropical Pacific · Implications of climate change for fisheries...
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Implications of climate change for fisheries in the tropical Pacific:
Johann Bell
Economic development and food security
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Vulnerability assessment
Supported by
• 88 scientists from 36 institutions
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Melanesia Micronesia Polynesia
Pacific Island countries and territories
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• Regional technical agency• 22 PICTs and 4 metropolitan members (Australia, New Zealand, France and USA)
• Provides advice in 15 areas• e.g. Oceanic Fisheries Programme
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• Approach used for the vulnerability assessment
• Summary of effects on fisheries• Effects on plans to use resourcesEconomic developmentFood security
• Identify the best adaptationsVital role of tuna
Outline
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Our approachProjected changes to atmospheric
and oceanic conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks
Implications for economic development, food security and
livelihoods
Adaptations and policies needed to reduce threats and capitalise on
opportunities
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Our approach
Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks
Implications for economic development, food security and
livelihoods
Adaptations and policies needed to reduce threats and capitalise on
opportunities
Scenarios and timeframes
B1/A2 2035
B1 2100
A2 2100
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Our approach
Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks
Implications for economic development, food security and
livelihoods
Adaptations and policies needed to reduce threats and capitalise on
opportunities
Scenarios and timeframes
B1/A2 2035
B1 2100 (A2 2050)
A2 2100
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Our approach
Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks
Implications for economic development, food security and
livelihoods
Adaptations and policies needed to reduce threats and capitalise on
opportunities
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• Optimise contributions of tuna to economic development
• Provide sufficient fish for food security
•Maximise sustainable livelihoods from fisheries resources
How could climate change derail regional plans?
Our approach
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Effects on fisheries
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Skipjack tuna (A2)West (average)
2035 2050 2100
+11% -0.2% -21%
East (average)
2035 2050 2100
+37% +43% +27%
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Coastal fisheries (A2)
2035 2050 2100
Negligible -10 to -20%
up to -50%
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Freshwater fisheries (A2)
2035 2050 2100
+2.5% +2.5 to +7.5%
+2.5 to +12.5%
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Aquaculture (A2)
System 2035 2050 2100
Ponds +Low +Low to Medium +Medium
Coastal -Low -Low to Medium -Medium
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How could the projected changes to tuna resources affect plans for
economic development?
• Government revenue
• GDP Development of national fleetsMore domestic processing
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Economic development
%
11
%
%
• Government revenue % (1998‐2008)
%
11%%
%
%
Examples onlyRange x‐y%
10‐25
2‐15
30‐50
10‐25
6‐12
Source: Gillett (2009)
<5
<1
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Economic development
%
11
%
%
Changes in revenue % 2035 2050 2100 (A2)
%
11%%
%
%
Examples onlyRange x‐y%
10‐25
2‐15
30‐50
Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)
Data are midpoints of estimated change
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Economic development
%
11
%
%
Changes in revenue % 2035 2050 2100 (A2)
%
11%%
%
%
Examples onlyRange x‐y%
10‐25
2‐15
30‐50
Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)
Data are midpoints of estimated change
Lower estimate = 30% GR x 37% increase in 2035 = 11%Higher estimate = 50% GR x 37% increase in 2035 = 18.5%Midpoint 11‐18.5% increase in GR = 14.7%Therefore GR increases from midpoint value of 40% to 54.7%
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Economic development
%
11
%
%
Changes in revenue % 2035 2050 2100 (A2)
%
11%%
%
%
Examples onlyRange x‐y%
10‐25
6‐12
Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)
<5
<1
Data are midpoints of estimated change
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Economic development
%
11
%
%
• Gross Domestic Product % (1998‐2008)
%
11%%
%
%
Examples onlyRange x‐y%
1‐5
2‐5
1‐4
20‐25
10‐25
Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)
(Processing)
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Economic development
%
11
%
%
Changes in GDP % 2035 2050 2100 (A2)
%
11%%
%
%
Examples onlyRange x‐y%
20‐25
10‐25
Data are midpoints of estimated changeSource: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)
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Economic development
%
11
%
%
Changes in GDP % 2035 2050 2100 (A2)
%
11%%
%
%
Examples onlyRange x‐y%
1‐5
2‐5
1‐4
Data are midpoints of estimated changeSource: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)
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• PICTs with greatest dependency on tuna should receive additional benefits!
• Losses of revenue and GDP occur mainly in PICTs where tuna makes a relatively low contribution to economic development (due to size of economies)
• Fairly good news!
Key points
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How could changes to coastal fisheries affect fish available for food security?
• In rural areas:
• 60‐90% of fish is caught by household
• fish contributes 70‐90% of animal protein intake
• In half of PICTs fish consumption is at least 2‐4 times the global average
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How could changes to coastal fisheries affect fish available for food security?
Plans are to:
• Provide 35 kg of fish per person per year
• Maintain traditional fish consumption where it is >35 kg
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Three categories of PICTs
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Group 1Large area of reef per person
Group 2Large area of reef per person but remote
Group 3 Small area of reef per person
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Three categories of PICTs
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Group PICTAverage reef
area per person 2010 (m2)
1Cook Islands, Marshall Islands, New Caledonia, Palau, Pitcairn Islands and Tokelau
230,000
2FSM, French Polynesia, Kiribati, Niue, Tonga, Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna
90,000
3American Samoa, Fiji, Guam, Nauru, CNMI, PNG, Samoa, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu
6500
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Why is reef area so important?
• Most fish used for food are caught near coral reef habitats
• Sustainable catches of fish from reefs are not known for most PICTs; median estimate of 3 tonnes per km2 per year is used instead
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Group 1
• No effects of popn growth or climate change
PICTFish available per person per year (kg)*2035 A2 2050 A2 2100 A2
Cook Islands 115 99 105Marshall Islands 646 570 570New Caledonia 313 256 233Palau 321 286 286Tokelau 495 446 446*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year
Production remains > 35 kg per person per year
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Group 2
• Some implications (assuming effective distribution)
*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year
Production usually > 35 kg per person per year
PICTFish available per person per year (kg)
2035 A2 2050 A2 2100 A2FSM 418 354 236French Polynesia 131 108 57Kiribati 86 66 26Niue 125 111 80Tonga 145 116 50Tuvalu 711 564 234Wallis & Futuna 197 170 96
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Group 3
• Severe implications due to population growth
*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year
PICTFish available per person per year
(kg)2035 2050 2100
American Samoa 13 11 8Fiji 35 32 26Guam 3 3 2Nauru 1 1 1PNG 8 6 4CNMI 10 9 9Samoa 30 29 25Solomon Islands 28 23 14Vanuatu 9 7 4
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Additional effects of climate change
28 2823 20
14 11
7 712 15
21 24
0
10
20
30
40
50Solomon Islands
35 kg
Year
2035 2050 2100
35 34 3228 26
19
37 9
16
0
10
20
30
40
50Fiji
35 kg
Year
2035 2050 2100
Effects of population growth Additional effects of climate change
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Group 3
• Gap to be filled
*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year
PICTGap in fish needed per person per year (kg)
2035 2050 2100Popn CC A2 Popn CC A2 Popn CC A2
American Samoa 22 23 24 26 27 29Fiji 0 1 3 7 9 16Guam 32 32 32 33 33 33PNG 27 27 29 29 31 32Nauru 34 34 34 34 34 34CNMI 25 25 26 27 26 29Samoa 5 6 6 11 10 16Solomon Islands 7 7 12 15 21 24Vanuatu 26 26 28 29 31 32
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Where will the fish come from?
• Fortunately, we do have good options!
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Group 3 ‐ How best to fill the gap?
Coastal fisheries Freshwater fisheries Pond aquaculture Tuna (and bycatch)
Fish needed for food security tonnes (x1000)
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43%
63%
79%
10%
12%
12%
11%
6%
36%
20%
6%
0 10 20 30 40 50
Fiji2035 (34,216 t)
2050 (37,125 t)
2100 (46,608 t)
43%
59%
70%
11%
6%
45%
35%
27%
0 2 4 6 8 10
Samoa2035 (7070 t)
2050 (7341 t)
2100 (8405 t)
16%
25%
32%
83%
74%
67%
0 1 2 3 4 5
American Samoa2035 (3056 t)
2050 (3439 t)
2100 (4741 t)
16%
29%
40%
7%
11%
13%
9% 68%
55%
44%
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Papua New Guinea2035 (140,690 t)
2050 (172,524 t)
2100 (274,625 t)
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
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How should we adapt?
• To reduce the threats
• To harness the opportunities
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Adaptation decision framework
Lose‐Lose Lose‐Win
Win‐Win
Long‐term Loss Long‐term GainShort‐term
Gain
Short‐term
Loss
Addresses Climate ChangeAd
dresses P
resent driv
ers
After Grafton (2010)
Win‐Lose
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Adaptations (economic development)
Ask
L‐W
W‐W
L‐L
W‐L
S
La Niña
El Niño
Source: P. Lehodey
Vessel owners fishing in PNA waters can purchase and trade fishing days depending on the location of the tuna
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets
Parties to the Nauru Agreement: Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau,Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Tuvalu
~ 95% of tuna from PICTs is caught in the EEZs of PNA members
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Adaptations (economic development)
Ask
L‐W
W‐W
L‐L
W‐L
S
Skipjack tuna
2050 A2
2100 A2
La Niña
El Niño
Source: P. Lehodey
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets
VDS has potential to be modified regularly to accommodate movement of tuna to the east
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Adaptations (economic development)
Energy audits of industrial fishing vessels
L‐W
W‐W
L‐L
W‐L
• Addresses likelihood of near‐term rises in fuel costs
• Will assist national fleets from PNG and Solomon Islands that may have to go greater distances in the future to catch fish for their canneries
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Adaptations to supply canneries in PNG and Solomon Islands
• Maintain/Develop Economic Partnership Agreements with the EU (and support PICTs supplying tuna to conform with food safety and IUU fishing regulations)
• Reduce access of distant water fishing nations to the EEZ to provide more fish for national vessels
• Require DWFNs operating with their EEZs to land some of the catch for use by local canneries;
• Enhance existing arrangements for the national fleet to fish in other EEZs
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Adaptations (food security)
Increase access to tuna for subsistence fishers with low‐cost, inshore Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs)
L‐W
W‐W
L‐L
W‐L
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Adaptations (food security)
Store and distribute tuna and by‐catch from industrial fleets to urban areas
L‐W
W‐W
L‐L
W‐L
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Adaptations (food security)L‐W
W‐W
L‐L
W‐LDevelop pond aquaculture
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Adaptations (food security)
Ask
Manage catchments and coastal fish habitats
2050 A2
2100 A2Source: P. Lehodey
SProjecte
L‐W
W‐W
L‐L
W‐L
Projected rainfall (A2) 20355‐20%
2050 10‐20%
2100 10‐20%
Source: Gehrke et al.; 2011 Lough et al. 2011
Healthy coral reefs, mangroves and seagrasses
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Adaptations (food security)
Ask
Manage catchments and coastal fish habitats
2050 A2
2100 A2Source: P. Lehodey
SProjecte
L‐W
W‐W
L‐L
W‐L
20355‐20%
2050 10‐20%
2100 10‐20%
Projected rainfall (A2)
Healthy coral reefs, mangroves and seagrasses
Degraded coral reefs, mangroves and seagrasses
Source: Gehrke et al.; 2011 Lough et al. 2011
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Adaptations (food security)
Restore and sustain coastal and freshwater fisheries and their habitats
Ask
L‐W
W‐W
L‐L
W‐LQua
ntity
of fish/ha
bitat
Qua
ntity
of fish/ha
bitat
Time
Well‐managed fisheries
Fish needed by growing population
Fish needed by growing population
Fish available from coastal stocks
Fish available from coastal stocks
Poorly‐managed fisheries
Gap in supply of fish to be filled
Time
Fish available from stocks
Fish available from stocks
Fish habitat
Fish habitat
a)
b)
• FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries
• Ecosystem Approach Fisheries Management
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SummaryEconomic development• East gains, where PICTs have high dependence on tuna, west has losses but effects on GDP are small
Food security• Effects of population growth swamp effects of climate change
Contribution of coastal fisheries decreases, but gap can be filled mainly by tuna
Adaptations• Win‐win adaptations available for economic growth and food security
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A team effort!Lead authorsJanice Lough, AIMSAlex Ganachaud, IRDRobert LeBorgne, IRDOve Hoegh‐Guldberg, University of QueenslandMichelle Waycott, James Cook UniversityMorgan Pratchett, James Cook UniversityPeter Gehrke, SMECPatrick Lehodey, CLSTim Pickering, SPC
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Thank you