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Brexit: Ramifications on the UK and the EU

Dr. Nancy Agnes, Head, Technical Operations, Tutorsindia info@ tutorsindia.com

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I. INTRODUCTION

31st December, 2020 was officially the last

day of the transition period that allowed the United

Kingdom (UK) to make their exit from the European

Union (EU). The end of this transition period which

was a rather lengthy procedure was overseen by two

Prime Ministers and was also bogged with many

extensions and delays, which split the UK (Shannon

Schumacher, 2019). The process of making an exit

from the EU was not an easy process and was quite

intricate.

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The erstwhile Prime Minister of the UK –

Theresa May, subsequent to the will of the voters’,

processed the notification for withdrawal as under

Article 50 to the EU on 29th

March, 2017. An

agreement for withdrawal was deliberated with the

EU which presented their new terms of association.

However, since the Parliament was divided, she

failed to acquire an approval (Nigel Walker, 2021).

May was succeeded by Boris Johnson who took over

from her as the Prime Minister of the UK. The

Conservative party of Johnson was successful in

subsequently acquiring a majority during the royally

mandated election which was held on 12th

December,

2019 (Baker & Uberoi, 2019). This facilitated

Johnson to acquire the necessary approval from the

Parliament for the withdrawal agreement which was

negotiated with the EU. The agreement received the

required legislative royal assent on 23rd

January,

2020. It was on this date that the queen agreed to

convert this bill into a law (UK Parliament, 2021).

Formally, the UK made it exit from the EU on 31st

January, 2020 but they moved into a period of

transition which eventually came to an end on 31st

December, 2020. Agreement with regards to the EU-

UK Trade and Cooperation was accepted on 24th

December, 2020 and signed six days later (European

Council, 2020) i.e, on the 30th

December, 2020.

Everything said and done, now that the UK has

officially made its exit from the EU, therefore it is

necessary to comprehend the insinuations of this exit

for the UK as well as the EU.

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II. IMPLICATIONS OF BREXIT ON THE UK AND

EU

The decision of the UK to exit the EU has

for one created a lot of uncertainty with regards to the

future of relationships in terms of trade following

Brexit. It has been stated by Klaus Schwab (2017) the

financial repercussions arising from the UK’s exit

vote could already be felt. In addition, there is

tremendous scope that such impacts would definitely

increase following the implementation of Article 50

from the Lisbon Treaty. The Bank of England has

remarked that owing to Brexit, a material slump has

been witnessed in the prices of certain European area

risky assets, for example, bank equities, where a drop

in prices would be aggravated through concerns

pertaining to the profitability of certain banks in the

Europe region (Bank of England, 2016) and this was

even before the leave vote was approved.

III. IMPACT ON THE UK

Brexit has already made a tremendous

impact on the UK. There has been a drastic

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slowdown in the UK economy and several

organizations have shifted their headquarters to the

EU. Needless to say it has also impacted jobs and

growth.

IV. GROWTH

The growth of the economy has been

severely impacted by Brexit and this is largely

attributed to the uncertainty that revolves around the

eventual outcome. The economic growth of the UK

slowed from 2.4% during 2015 to 1.0% during 2019

owing to uncertainty from Brexit. It has been

estimated by the government in the UK that the

growth of the UK would be further lowered by 6.7%

over the forthcoming 15 years. Though the prevalent

terms of free trade were assumed, immigration

continued to be restricted (Daniel Harari, 2019).

Figure 1: Long-term GDP Impact from Brexit in the

UK

Source: Daniel Harari, (2019)

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V. JOBS

Young workers in the UK were most hit by

Brexit. A shortage of 3 million skilled workers will

be experienced by Germany by 2030 (The Local,

2017). However, following Brexit, these jobs might

not be readily available to workers from the UK.

Further, employers across the UK are finding it

challenging to find candidates as EU born workers

left the UK, and their numbers dropped by 95%

during 2017. This has made a massive impact on low-

skilled and medium-skilled occupations largely.

VI. IMPACT ON THE EU

Brexit is largely deemed as a vote that was

not in favour of globalization and as an outcome it

has weakened the forces across the EU that were in

favour of incorporation. Members from the right-

wing anti-immigration parties were especially anti-

EU within Germany and France. If they managed to

gain much ground, they would be in a position to

compel an anti-EU vote. In case either France or

Germany makes an exit, the EU stands to lose its

most robust economies and it would lead to a

dissolution of the EU as such. At the same time, a

large segment of citizens from the EU continue to

extend their full support to the union. The Pew

Research Center conducted an extensive research

throughout ten European nations has revealed that

almost 75% of the respondents who participated in

the research were of the belief that peace was

promoted by the EU, while 55% opined that the EU

supported prosperity. Also, a third of the respondents

perceived a diminishing role of the UK (Wike et al.,

2019).

VII. CONCLUSION

In short, it has been observed that following

the referendum of the UK to exit from the EU, the

standard measures are indicative of a substantial

growth in the level of uncertainty. Furthermore, it has

been noted that there is high scope that Brexit would

impat not just the UK but also the economy in other

parts of the EU via diverse channels of transmission,

for example; trade, immigration, uncertainty and

investment. Moreover, it is clear that in the near

future, the major brunt of Brexit would prove to be

increased uncertainty in terms of economic as well as

political aspects. Such issues have the potential to

reduce the pace of investment growth and private

consumption along with foreign trade, essentially

within the UK; though the impact of Brexit would

also be felt majorly within the EU too.

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REFERENCES

Baker, C., & Uberoi, E. (2019). General Election 2019:

The results.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/general-election-2019-the-results-so-far/

Bank of England. (2016). Inflation Report.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-

/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2016/august-2016.pdf

Daniel Harari. (2019). Brexit deal: Potential economic

impact. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/brexit-deal-potential-economic-impact/

European Council. (2020). EU-UK Trade and Cooperation

Agreement: Council adopts decision on the signing.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-

releases/2020/12/29/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperation-

agreement-council-adopts-decision-on-the-signing/#

Klaus Schwab. (2017). The Global Competitiveness Report

2016–2017.

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GCR2016-

2017/05FullReport/TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2016-2017_FINAL.pdf

Nigel Walker. (2021). Brexit timeline: events leading to the

UK’s exit from the European Union.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7960/

Shannon Schumacher. (2019). Brexit divides the UK, but

partisanship and ideology are still key factors.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-

tank/2019/10/28/brexit-divides-the-uk-but-

partisanship-and-ideology-are-still-key-factors/

The Local. (2017). Germany could lack 3 million skilled

workers by 2030, study finds.

https://www.thelocal.de/20170830/germany-could-lack-33-million-skilled-workers-by-2040-study/

UK Parliament. (2021). Royal Assent.

https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/passage-bill/lords/lrds-royal-assent/

Wike, Richard, Fetterolf, J., & Fagan, and M. (2019).

Europeans Credit EU With Promoting Peace and

Prosperity, but Say Brussels Is Out of Touch With Its

Citizens.

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/03/19/eur

opeans-credit-eu-with-promoting-peace-and-

prosperity-but-say-brussels-is-out-of-touch-with-its-citizens/

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