Implications of a Fast Nuclear Phase ... - nucleus.iaea.org 4/Plenary_Infrastructure_09... ·...

Jürgen-Fr. Hake - Gillesen, Jürgen Kupitz, Peter Markewitz, Thiemo Pesch I August 28, 2013

INPRO Dialogue Forum 8: Toward Nuclear Energy System Sustainability: Economics, Resource

Availability, and Institutional Arrangements, IAEA, Vienna, Austria

Implications of a Fast Nuclear

Phase-out: The German Example

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Institute of Energy and Climate Research, August 28, 2014

Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE) J.- F. Hake, J. Kupitz 2

Contents

1) Goals of the German Energiewende

2) Monitoring

3) Assessment

4) Conclusions



Major Goals of the German „Energiewende“

• Phase out of nuclear energy (2022)

• GHG emissions: -40% by 2020

(compared to the level of 1990) -55% by 2035

-80% by 2050

• Total primary energy supply (TPES): -50% by 2050

• Share of renewables (RES) in TPES: ≥30% by 2030

• Electricity demand: -10% by 2020

• Share of RES in electricity generation: 50% by 2030

80% by 2050

• Heat demand of building stock: -20% by 2020

• Share of RES in final energy demand

of the transport sector: 10% by 2020



Energiewende - Milestones/Meilensteine

1979-

1985

Deutscher Bundestag - Enquête-Kommission „Zukünftige Kernenergie-

Politik“

1980 Krause/Bossel/Müller-Reißmann: Energie-Wende. Wachstum und

Wohlstand ohne Erdöl und Uran

1987-

1990

Deutscher Bundestag - Enquête-Kommission „Vorsorge zum Schutz der

Erdatmosphäre“

1994 Alt: Die Sonne schickt uns keine Rechnung. Die Energiewende ist

möglich

2000 Vereinbarung zwischen Bundesregierung und

Energieversorgungsunternehmen

2000-

2002

Deutscher Bundestag - Enquête-Kommission „Nachhaltige

Energieversorgung unter den Bedingungen der Globalisierung und der

Liberalisierung“

2003 WBGU: Welt im Wandel – Energiewende zur Nachhaltigkeit

2011 Ethik-Kommission: Deutschlands Energiewende – Ein

Gemeinschaftswerk für die Zukunft



Monitoring



Monitoring

Primary Energy in Germany

01 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 0007 0008 0009 000

10 00011 00012 00013 00014 00015 000

Peta

jou

le (

PJ)

Ziel Sonstige ErneuerbareEnergien

Kernenergie ErdgasErdölgas

Mineralöl Braunkohle Steinkohle

Ziel: minus 20%

gg. 2008

Institute for Energy and Climate Research

System Analysis and Technology Evaluation 28. August 2014 Folie 7

Monitoring

Share of biofuels

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1000 t CO2-Äquivalente

CO2 CH4 N2O H-FKW FKW SF6 Ziel 2020

Ziel: 40% Reduzierung bezogen auf 1990


System Analysis and Technology Evaluation 28. August 2014 Folie 8

Monitoring

CO2 Emissions



Assessment of Energy Technologies and Energy Systems

Technology

• Efficiency

• Maturity

• etc.

Economy

• Costs

• Market Potential

• etc.

Environment

• Local Emissions

• Climate Change

• etc.

Society

• Public Perception

• Regulation

• etc.

Scientific Basis for Multi-dimensional and Multi-criteria Societal/Political

Decision-Making

Sustainable Development

Institut für Energie- und Klimaforschung -Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (IEK-STE)

Hard coal (50)

Lignite coal (50)

Nuclear

Natural gas (40)

Oil (40)

Waste (35)

Biomass (35)

Hydro (100)

Wind (20)

PV (25)

Development of power plant capacity in

Germany

Advice: Numbers in parathesis(…) = technical lifetime



Figure: Power flows and Energy Concept

- grid topology 2012 Figure: Power flows and Grid Development

Plan - grid topology 2022

T. Pesch – H.J. Allelein – J.-Fr. Hake (2014): Impacts of the transformation of the German energy system on the transmission

grid. The European Physical Journal Special Topics 1-15

Approach for security of electricity supply



Supply interruptions in Germany (SAIDI)

0

5

10

15

20

25

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Minutes

Source:

Bundesnetzagentur: Monitoringbericht 2013



EEX Price Development Futures market

Source: BDEW, Strompreisanalyse, Nov. 2013, mit Daten der EEX

Futures market is decisive for long-term procurement costs



Industrial Electricity Prices Annual consumption: 160 to 20.000 MWh, supply at medium voltage level

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Electricity Tax 1.230 1.230 1.537 1.537 1.537

Offshore Liability Apportionment 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.170

§19-Apportionment 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.070 0.100

CHP Surcharge 0.050 0.050 0.030 0.040 0.070

EEG Apportionment* 1.310 2.050 3.530 3.592 5.277

Concession Fee 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110

Generation, Transmission, Distribution 8.700 8.630 8.830 8.980 7.760

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Ø I

nd

us

tria

l E

lec

tric

ity P

ric

es

in

Ce

nt/

kW

h

11,40 12,07

14,04 14,33 15,02

* Since 2010: Application AusgleichMechV

Source: BDEW, Strompreisanalyse, Nov. 2013



Development DAX 30, RWE, E.ON Historical day opening price from 2009 to 2013, normalized to the beginning of 2009

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

2009-01-01 2010-01-01 2011-01-01 2012-01-01 2012-12-31 2013-12-31

DAX 30 RWE AG St. E.ON SE

Source: finanzen.net (Abgerufen: 16.06.2014)

Development DAX 30: + 97,38%

Development RWE AG St.: - 58,47%

Development E.ON SE: - 53,26%

Opposite price development from RWE, E.ON and DAX 30



German Electricity Exports/Imports



Public Opinion about Power Plants



PERSPECTIVES


System Analysis and Technology Evaluation



Observations - Status and Perspectives

Technology

• high level of maturity

• competition of concepts

• structural changes

Policy

• political framework unstable

and inconsistent

• measures stimulate high

prices

• changing visions

Environment

• local emissions at low level

• climate protection

Economy

• prices at high-level/affordability

• new business models

Society

• public acceptance is given

• local acceptance missing


System Analysis and Technology Evaluation



Lessons Learnt • The Energiewende addresses all sectors of the economy.

• The technological basis for the transformation exists.

Changes to the existing infrastructure are required.

• Higher shares of volatile energy sources require a smarter

management.

• Energy security has remained at a very high level.

• Time represents an important factor for structural changes.

• Economic impacts … Business cases change according to

new priorities in governmental and parlamentary decision

making.

• Strong public support for the Energiewende.

• In Europe, a transformation of national energy systems

must be compatible with the neighboring energy systems.



Warning

There is no RESET-

key!



Thank you very much!

[email protected]

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