Implication of GERD to Sudan and Prospects of Long-Term Resolution for

Conflicts Around the Eastern Nile

August 21, 2020 2 2 0 2 2 2 2 0 2 0 2 2 0 0 2 2

0 2

Yosif A. Ibrahim (Ph.D., P.E,)

ContentqContext: Exploring Ethiopia Irrigation and

Hydropower Development Plans

qOptions for Accommodating Ethiopia Future Water Needs and the path forward for Sharing the Nile Water

q GERD Positive and Negative Impacts to Sudan

qKey Issues that needs immediate attention

5.5 BCM

5.0 BCM

12.4 BCM

49.7 BCM 2.3 BCM

4.1 BCM

3.4 BCM

10.1 BCM

8.8 BCM

S1

Lake TanaR1

Lake Tana Inflow

C1Abay at Bahir Dar

S2Inc. Flow Bahir Dar to Kessie

C2

D1:Tana Irrigation Demand

Abay at Kessie

C3Abay at Guder

S3 Inc. Flow Kessie to Guder Conf

Inc. Flow Karadobi to Beko Abo

R2Karadobi

S4

C4R3

Beko-Abo

D3: Fincha & Neshe Irrigation Demand

D2: Tana to Karodobi Demand

R4Mandaya C5

S5Inc. Flow Beko Abo to Mandaya

S6

Didessa flow

R5Didessa

C7D4: Didessa, Negeso, Nekemet, Anger Irrigation Demand

C8R6

Beles

Beles flowS7

C9

D5: Beles Irrigation Demand

C10

Abay at ShogoleR7

GERDC11

DeimStation

C6

S8

Inc. Flow Mandaya to GERD

Abay US Beko-Abo

Abay US Manaya

Blue Nile: Ethiopia Irrigation PotentialScheme

Area

(1000Ha)

GWR

(BCM/Y)

Investment

Cost (MUS$)

Net Revenue

(MUS$/Year)

B/C

Ratio

Employment

(1000 People)

D1: Lake Tana Irrigation Demand 117.2 1.0 494.9 9.4 2.5 1255.2

D2: Irrigation Demand Lake Tana to Karadobi 69.0 0.5 156.5 5.9 1.7 739.0

D3: Fincha and NesheIrrigation Demand 15.7 0.1 21.7 2.4 4.8 167.9

D4: Angar-Didessa-Nekemete Demand 101.4 0.6 587.3 16.3 4.1 1086.9

D5: Beles Irrigation Demand 138.7 1.4 752.0 20.8 4.8 1486.3

D6: Dinder Irrigation Demand Ethiopia 58.5 0.6 451.3 9.2 4.3 626.8

D6: Rahad Irrigation Demand Ethiopia 55.0 0.6 128.2 4.1 5.0 589.3

Ethiopia Irrigation BN+Dinder+Rahad 0.6 4.9 2.6 68.1 3.9 6.0

Blue Nile: Ethiopia Power Potential

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900

Profile of Abay (Lake Tana-Boarder)Ka

rado

bi/G

uder

Riv

er

Distance from Lake Tana (m)

mas

l

Beko

Abo

/Birr

Riv

erFSL=1146 U

pper

Men

daya

/Did

essa

Riv

er

FSL=800

Orig

inal

Men

daya

Rena

issa

nce

Bele

s Riv

er

Dabu

sRiv

er

FSL=640

FSL=1062

Fini

chaa

Riv

er

Jem

ma

Rive

r

Besh

iloRi

ver

Yasu

mRi

ver

Tiss

ast F

all

SchemeStorage (BCM)

Evaporation (BCM/Yr)

Dam Height (m)

Total Cost (MUS$)

Installed Capacity (MW)

Generated Energy (GWh)

Energy Tariff (USC/KWhr)

Annual Revenue (MUS$)

R2: Karadobi Dam 40.2 0.29 260 1824 1600 8761 7.1 622R3: Beko Abo Dam 31.7 0.31 282 2994 1940 12815 7.4 948R4: Mendaya Dam 48.1 0.62 200 2705 2000 12119 7.4 897R5: Didessa Dam 8.2 0.12 165 1230 550 2843 7.4 210R7: GERD 74.0 1.53 150 4630 4800 16043 7.4 1187Ethiopia Hydropower Blue Nile 202.2 2.9 13383 10890 52581 7.4 3864.7

Atbara: Ethiopia Irrigation Potential

1.3 BCM1.4 BCM

10.9 BCM

1.9 BCM

0.2 BCM

4.0 BCM2.2 BCM

0.6 BCM

0.5 BCM

S11

R10Tekezi

TK5

D20: Small scale Irrigation TK

D21: Humera Demand

S12

R13:TK21

C32

D22: Angreb Demand

S13

C33

D23: Metema Demand

C34Showak

Goan

g R.

Angr

eb R.

C35 Kubur

Goang at MetemaAngreb US TK21

Tekeze Inflow to Tekeze 5

S14

Incremental Flow Tk5 to Tk6

C36

Wad-Elhilew

S15

Setit

R.

S16

Incremental Flow TK6 to TK7

C63

R24 TK6

R25TK7

C65 C31

S17

S18

C66

Scheme Area

(1000Ha)

GWR

(BCM/Y)

Total

Investment

Cost (MUS$)

Net Revenue

(MUS$/Year)

B/C

Ratio

Employment

(1000 People)

D20: Small Scale Traditional Tekeze 141.5 1.5 1561.2 29.6 2.0 1516.1

D21: Humera Irrigation Demand 43.0 0.4 529.7 9.0 2.0 460.3

D22: Angreb Irrigation Demand 16.5 0.2 182.4 3.5 2.0 177.2

D23: Metema Irrigation Demand 11.6 0.1 100.2 2.4 2.0 123.9

Ethiopia Irrigation Tekeze Atbara 0.2 2.2 2.4 44.5 2.0 2.3

BAS: Ethiopia Irrigation Potential

8.2 BCM

3.5 BCM

0.1 BCM

13 BCM

1.1 BCM 1.4 BCM

2.5 BCM

2.52 BCM

0.23 BCM

0.37 BCM

2.65 BCM0.56 BCM

2.09 BCM0.13 BCM

S19Birbir flow

C39 Birbir R.

S20

Baro1 flowS22

R14Baro1

C40

R15

Baro

2

R16Genji

S21Incremental flow Baro1 to Baro2

Genji flow

C41Baro 2 flow

C42 Baro R.Baro at GambellaR17

Gambella Dam

D26: Baro Area 1 Demand Right Bank (Pumping )

D27: Baro Area 5 Demand Left Bank (pumping)

C43

Baro at Itang

S24

Incremental flow from Gambella to Itang Dam

R18Itang Dam

D28: Baro Areas 2 & 3 Demand Right Bank

D29: Baro Areas 4 & 6 Demand Left Bank

C44C45C46

Baro at Mouth

D30: Mashar Spill

C55

C47

R19Dombong

Dam

R20Abobo Dam

Alwero at Abobo

S25

Chriu+Meyu flow

S26

Incremental flow from Dombong to Abobo Dam

D31: Upstream Alw ero Demand Area 7

D32: Alw erro Left Bank Demand Area 8

C48 S27

R21Gilo1Dam

C51

R22Gilo2Dam

D33: Gilo1 Right Bank Demand Areas 9 &13

D34: Gilo1 Left Bank Demand Areas 12

D35: Gilo2 Right Bank Demand Area 10

D36: Gilo2 Left Bank Demand Area 11

Gilo1 Dam FlowGilo2 Dam Flow

S28

Incremental flow from Gilo1 to Gilo2 Dam

C49

S29 Akobo Flow

Alwero R.

Gilo R.Gilo R.

S30 Akobo R.

Pibo

rR.

Pibor Flow

Pibo

rR.

Pibo

r R.

C56

Naser

C54 C53

C50

C52S31

D38: Tw alor Spill

BAS: Ethiopia Irrigation Potential ContinueScheme Area

(1000Ha)GWR

(BCM/Y)

Total Investment Cost (MUS$)

Net Revenue (MUS$/Year)

B/C Ratio

Employment (1000 People)

D26: Baro from Gambella Right Bank Demand 67.8 0.7 408.1 14.9 13.2 725.9D27: Baro from Gambella Left Bank Demand 57.0 0.6 343.5 12.5 13.2 611.0D28: Baro from Itang Right Bank 128.5 1.4 774.3 28.3 13.2 1377.2D29: Baro from Itang Irrigation Demand Left Bank 168.0 1.8 1012.0 36.9 13.2 1800.0C46: Reduction in Machar Marshes Spill -2.3D29: Baro from Itang Irrigation Demand Left Bank 16.0 0.2 99.3 3.2 14.0 171.4D32: Alwero Left Bank Irrigation Demand 10.4 0.1 64.5 2.3 13.2 111.4D33: Gilo1 Right Bank Irrigation Demand 46.9 0.5 291.0 10.3 13.2 502.5D34: Gilo1 Left Bank Irrigation Demand 34.5 0.4 213.8 7.6 13.2 369.2D35: Gilo2 Right Bank Irrigation Demand 61.3 0.7 380.5 13.5 13.2 657.1D36: Gilo2 Left Bank Irrigation Demand 33.9 0.4 210.1 7.4 13.2 362.8Ethiopia Irrigation Baro-Akobo-Sobat 0.6 4.5 3.8 136.9 13.3 6.7

y = 0.4951x - 2.8064R² = 0.9458

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Mac

har

Mar

shes

los

ses

(BC

M/Y

ear)

Baro DS Itang (BCM/Year)

Correlaion Between Annual Losses and Baro DS Itang Flows

3.5 BCM

C43

Baro at ItangR18Itang Dam

D28: Baro Areas 2 & 3 Demand Right Bank

C44C45C46

Baro at Mouth

D30: Mashar Spill

C55

Summary of Ethiopia Demand

Total Investment Portfolio= 22.183 Billion US$Total Irrigation Potential =1.4 Million HaTotal Water Requirements = 8.7 BCM (Excluding Evaporation Losses)Anticipated Net Revenue Generated = 249 (Irr.)+3865 (Hydro)=4.11 Billion/YrWater Value for Hydro= 1.33 US$Water Value for Irrigation=2.86 CentsTotal Employment Generated Irrigation=14.9 Billion

Scheme Storage (BCM)

Evaporation (BCM/Yr)

Total Cost (MUS$)

Installed Capacity

(MW)Generated

Energy (GWh)Annual Revenue

(MUS$)

Ethiopia Hydropower Blue Nile 202.2 2.9 13383 10890 52581 3864.7

Sub-basinArea

(Million Ha)

GWR (BCM/Y)

Total Investme

nt Cost (BUS$)

Net Revenue (MUS$/Year)

B/C Ratio

Employment (Million)

Blue Nile +Dinder+Rahad 0.6 4.9 2.6 68.1 3.9 6.0Tekeze Atbara 0.2 2.2 2.4 44.5 2.0 2.3Baro-Akobo_Sobat 0.6 4.5 3.8 136.9 13.3 6.7Existing Uses 0.7 2.9Ethiopia Irrigation Needs 1.4 8.7 8.8 249.4 6.4 14.9

Eastern Nile Multi-Sector Opportunity Analysis

Prospect for Long-Term Solution (Prof. Eltahir)q Increase in Yield è 5 BCM (Blue Nile) + 2 BCM

(Atbara)

q Allow Ethiopia to Fully Exploit Hydro-BN

q Allow Ethiopia to Fully Exploit Irrigation

q Incremental Basin Approach

q Start with Agreement Around BN + Atabara

q Negotiation Around BAS Shall Involve South Sudan

q Terms of Agreement Shall be based on Decadal Yield because of Large Interannual variability; i.e.

q Egypt Measured at H.A.D=555 BCM/10-Yrsq Sudan Measured at H.A.D=185 BCM/10Yrs-q Ethiopia Measured at H.A.D= 70 BCM/10Yrs

Potential Benefits of GERD? qRegulation By Default Help in:

vAddressing flood impactvAvail water for irrigation year around è Irrigation

intensification (Facilitate Irrigation of .5 Million Ha) vReduce Sedimentation è Reduction in Sediment load

by 85% and cost of dredging by USD 50 million/yearvImprove performance of existing hydropower plants è increase in hydropower generation will account for 2,000 GWh/Year, amount to about 23 million USD annually (Mordos et al., 2018)

vAccess to clean and cheap source of energy (Thermal is no longer an option )

v Navigation

GERD Concerns….

q Coordinated operation of the GERD to maximize benefit and minimize negative impacts è

q Impact of GERD during fillingq Reduction in soil fertility;q Impact to Recession Agricultureq Risk of dam failureq Revisiting Power Trade Agreement as Part

of GERD Negotiation

Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts

q Recession Agriculture (Social) : The Regulation of the Blue Nile will reduce the recession agri. Irrigated land by about 50%

q Brick making activities (Social)

q Sediment Reduction è Lost in soil fertility (Fertilizers)

q Loss in hydropower generation capabilities during filling

q Morphological changes (Env.)q Changes in river water quality q Fisheries

Key Issues Short Term….

q Coordinated and Joint operation of GERD during both Filling and long-term operation

q Dam Safety: Reduce Risk of Failure and Demand transparency from Ethiopia to release all Reports that Pertain to Dam Safety

q Environmental Impact Study that address recession agriculture, loss in fertile land and other losses in ecosystem benefits and socio-economic benefits with options for mitigations and compensation

q Power Trade Agreement to be part of GERD Negotiations

q Have a legally binding agreement and institute some sort of mechanism for operationalization

Key Issues: Middle to Long Term

q Sudan should have a plan to fully utilize its share of 18.5 BCM è Upgrade conveyance system for irrigation; irrigation modernization for existing schemes etc.

q Improve agriculture productivity and water use efficiency (Adoption of Technology and best practices e.g. improved use of fertilizers, advanced irrigation system)

q Work with the Egypt and Ethiopia to have long-term water sharing and Benefit sharing agreement that could potentially acknowledge legal water rights per 1959 and at the same time accommodate the development plans for Ethiopia

q Augment hydro-generation through enhancing operation of existing scheme and runoff-river hydro plants

q Horizontal expansion in irrigated agriculture

Thank YouQuestions