Implementing conservation and adaptive learning in times of environmental uncertainty

Restoring Shrublands for Priority Species

Nancy Pau, Kate O’Brien, Stephanie Koch, Suzanne Paton, Dorie Stolley

Increasing Priority of Shrub habitat

• Shrub- dependent birds showing some of the highest population decline in the Northeast

• Mature forest breeders prefer early to mid successional forests during post fledgling period (Vitz and Rodewald 2006)

• Neotropical migrants shift to early successional habitat in fall (Rodewald and Brittingham 2004)

• New England cottontail became candidate species in 2006

Management Uncertainties

• What site characteristic best predict successful shrub restoration?

• What combination of treatment options best achieve management objectives?

• Once native shrubs are established, what’s is needed to maintain the habitat?

• Is native shrub restoration feasible and practical?

• How bad are invasives plants to resources of concern?

www.sustainablepractice.org

8. Update likelihoods, model weights,

utilities (steps 4-5) each time step;

evaluate which models & treatments are ‘winning’

7. Implement & monitor; Summarize

monitoring metrics to determine outcomes

each time step

2. Define objectives; translate to (independent)

monitoring metrics;define outcomes

(what is success?)

5. Attribute likelihoods to all possible outcomes for each model:

N=Models*Trtmt*Metric*Outcome;Calculate expected utilities for trmts

1. Clarify problem

3. Develop treatmentoptions;

attribute values to all possible outcomesN=Trmt*Metric*Outcome

4. Define competing models that capture

uncertainty; assign weights

Adaptive Management: a process for dealing with uncertainty

6. Allocate treatments to multiple

management units; reallocate each time step

Clarifying the Problem

Three Resource Targets

© Jim Sonia

Two Treatment Schemes or Competing Models

Two Management Scenarios

Objectives Sub-objectivesMonitoring Parameters

Quality habitat

Bird Use

Provide native shrub habitat for fall migrating birds

Provide native shrubHabitat for a sustainable

pop of New England cottontail

Preserve biological diversity and ecological integrity

Weight gain of birds migrating through

Berry biomass and Availability through migration

Structure, Cover

Bird use through migration(target species/abundance/

richness)

How birds use the sites(prey, host species, time budget)

Clarifying the Objectives:

+

-

-

+

-

+

+

-

Matrices

High Intensity

Low better NEC P/A

Low better NEC P/A

High betterNEC P/A

High better NEC P/A

Low Intensity

Decision

Utility1.0

0.1

1.0

0.1

1.0

0.1

1.0

0.1

Probability0.5

0.5

0.8

0.2

0.7

0.3

0.4

0.6

Monitoring data

Defining Competing Models

E(U) = 0.622

E(U)=0.424

Grass to Shrubs Enhance Existing Shrubs

Low Intensity

High Intensity

Low Intensity

High Intensity

Parker River x x

Great Meadows

x x

Rachel Carson x x

Rhode Island x x

Allocate Treatments Schemes

Monitor, Implement, Monitor

Updating the Model

Field LowShrub Low

Model Weights

Low Medium

Initial 0.5 0.5

Next time step 0.93 0.07

8. Update probability, weights, utilities (evaluate

which models is ‘winning’

7. Implement & monitor; Summarize

monitoring metrics to determine outcomes

each time step 2. Define objectives; monitoring metrics

5. Attribute probability and utility

1. Clarify problem

3. Develop treatmentoptions

4. Define competing models that capture

uncertainty; assign weights

Project Timeline

6. Allocate treatments to multiple

management units; reallocate each time step

Aug 2007 Jan 2008

Feb - Aug 2008

14 meetings

Fall 2008

Jan 2009 to Jan 2011

28 meetings in 3 years!

Developed protocols

Lessons Learned:

• Model as a tool to help us think through the process– Good modeler who understands habitat management is key to success

• A comprehensive framework for working with complicated issues with a lot of uncertainty= helps managers break down their problems and identify what’s driving the response.

• Developed a better project when would have otherwise; really understand the ecosystem processes and relationships

• Financial and Technical support need to be flexible

• Extremely labor intensive; managers and biologists need to play key role in entire process

• Process can be frustrating (Iterative). Definitely helpful to take Modeling and SDM course at NCTC.

Products to Date:• Monitoring protocols

– Vegetation (point intercept, line intercept, robel pole) SOP– Berry production (Adam Smith)– Tiered bird surveys during migration (CJ Ralph, Klamath Bird

Observatory)

• Draft excel model• Draft Access database• Ecological Integrity Index (NatureServe)

Deliverables

Future Products:• Effectivness of Treatment techniques

• Various herbicide applications• Supplemental planting• Prescribed burning

• BMPs for various site conditions (start of Expert System)

©Glen Tepke

Contact: nancy_pau@fws.gov, Parker River NWR

©Jim Fenton