Impacts - Savills By Tetsuya Kaneko, Director, Research and Consultancy, Savills Japan 29 Singapore

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Transcript of Impacts - Savills By Tetsuya Kaneko, Director, Research and Consultancy, Savills Japan 29 Singapore

  • Impacts T H E F U T U R E O F G L O B A L R E A L E S TAT E Worldwide Trends 2018 report

    Savills World Research. Published March 2018

  • 2

    Contents 3 Introduction By Yolande Barnes, Head of Savills World Research

    10 World overview By Yolande Barnes, Head of Savills World Research

    12 USA By Keith DeCoster, Director, Research Operations, Savills Studley

    17 Europe By Eri Mitsostergiou, Director, European Research, Savills

    19 Germany By Matthias Pink, Head of Germany Research, Savills

    21 France By Marie Josée Lopes, Head of Research, Savills France

    23 UK By Lucian Cook, Director, Savills Residential Research and Mat Oakley, Head of Savills European Commercial Research

    25 Asia-Pacific By Simon Smith, Senior Director, Savills Hong Kong

    27 Japan By Tetsuya Kaneko, Director, Research and Consultancy, Savills Japan

    29 Singapore By Alan Cheong, Head of Research & Consultancy, Savills Singapore

    30 Vietnam By Troy Griffiths, Deputy Managing Director, Savills Vietnam

    31 China By James Macdonald, Head of Research China, Savills

    33 South Korea By JoAnn Jieun Hong, Director Research & Consultancy, Savills South Korea

    35 Australia By Chris Freeman, National Head of Capital Strategy, Savills

    37 Hong Kong By Simon Smith, Senior Director, Savills Hong Kong

    40 Africa By Mark Latham, Managing Director, Pam Golding Commercial, Africa and Pam Golding, Founder and Chairman, Pam Golding

    43 Global rural By Ian Bailey, Head of Rural Research, Savills

    46 Contacts

  • 3Click here to return to Contents page

    Introduction By Yolande Barnes, Head of Savills World Research

    This report is a round-up of forecasts from Savills real-estate experts around the world. Rather than presenting the usual, backward-looking data on what has happened in all the conventional real-estate markets, we look forward to how things will change and look at some of the less conventional alternatives which should be of interest to real-estate professionals. The report is for investors, owners, funders and advisors who want to understand how global trends in the economy, technology, society and the environment, will impact their enterprises. It translates some of the big-picture views, as presented in our first Impacts publication, into individual market consequences. This shows that global trends have already resulted in some remarkably similar trends seen in many markets, and across continents. Each trend plays out in a slightly different way and over different timescales in various places, but the main story is that the nature of real-estate risk has changed, and owners are viewing new and existing sectors and locations in a different way.

    All real-estate professionals need to understand global forces in order to address what is happening in their particular locality or sector – whatever, and wherever, it is.

    Sign up for the Impacts Quarterly It’s the essential email update on the future of global real estate. See savills.com/Impacts Also, a visit to savills.com/Impacts will help you tackle the real-estate challenges of 2018 and beyond.

  • USA Investment type Property type Location

    Characteristics Examples

    Core Logistics warehouses Gateway cities LA, Dallas, Fort Worth, North New Jersey

    Prime Grade A offices CBDs Downtown Bellevue, Seattle,

    San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Boston

    Luxury multi-family Highest-cost coastal metros

    Core-plus R&D/Lifescience High-demand locations Boston, Bay Area, San Diego

    developments and conversions

    Offices and mixed-use Maturing sunbelts and Charlotte, Raleigh/Durham, Nashville,

    lower-cost markets Portland, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis

    Mixed office/retail Close-in suburbs Downtown San Diego

    Value-add Non-gateway CBDs Dallas CBD

    Industrial final-mile conversions Close-in suburbs on Any major population centres

    transport routes

    Hotel Tourism, domestic and business Washington DC, Manhattan

    Opportunistic Redevelopment of corporate Remote beltway suburbs Chicago, New Jersey, Philadelphia

    office parks

    Mixed-use development on transit New commuter lines MARTA Atlanta

    oriented development sites Brightline South Florida

    BARTline San Jose

    Alternative Multi-family Affordable High-growth markets

    Mid market

    Europe Investment type Property type Location

    Characteristics Examples

    Core Prime offices CBDs Berlin, Madrid, Stockholm,

    Oslo, Amsterdam, Brussels

    Prime retail High street Paris, London, Milan, Amsterdam, Munich,

    Frankfurt, Madrid, Barcelona, Vienna

    Prime warehouses Countries with high UK, France, Germany, Netherlands,

    e-commerce penetration Sweden

    Core-plus Prime sectors and Alternative CEE region cities with Prague, Budapest, Bucharest

    sectors for long-term investment strong fundamentals

    Value-add Secondary neighbourhood Locations needing community

    shopping centres retail hubs

    Redesign of retail parks Out of town with good

    catchments

    Old office stock for conversion Downtown locations

    to student housing

    Opportunistic New emerging sectors such as Youthful cities Berlin, Amsterdam, London, Dublin

    co-working, co-living, new types

    of serviced office, micro-living

    & student housing/hotels

    4Click here to return to Contents page

  • Germany Investment type Property type Location

    Characteristics Examples

    Core Traditional prime High demand, low vacancy Hamburg, Munich, Frankfurt,

    rates, poised for rental growth, Berlin

    especially offices & residential

    Housing for let and long hold Gentrifying outer Berlin, Hamburg, Munich

    neighbourhoods

    Value-add Re-purposing and redeveloping Failing retail in locations

    failing retail units suitable for mixed-use

    and even logistics

    Conversion of other mono-use

    buildings to mixed-use

    Opportunistic High-yielding data centres

    France Investment type Property type Location

    Characteristics Examples

    Core Core-type assets with Peripheral Paris, but with Nanterre

    slightly higher yields than access to public transport

    Paris intra muros (inner) nodes

    Core-plus Speculative development of Transport nodes on new, Roissy, Clichy Montfermeil,

    assets that are part of the improved or linked lines which Orly, Issy, Versailles

    Grand Paris project and its are part of the Grand Paris plan

    transport hubs

    Value-add Empty or part-empty buildings Inner and outer suburbs

    for repositioning or change of use of Paris

    Student housing and senior

    residences

    5Click here to return to Contents page

  • UK Investment type Property type Location

    Characteristics Examples

    Core Selective retail which was Streets and centres performing Central London

    over-discounted in 2017 and in demand by innovative

    occupiers

    Urban logistics Near urban centres for M25 London

    last-mile delivery

    Regional logistics Strategic locations accessible Midlands

    to large population catchments

    Amenity farmland near more Arable and mixed Grade A land Southern England

    populated areas

    Core-plus Multifamily (build to let) High-demand cities Birmingham, Manchester, Bristol,

    Oxford, Cambridge, Edinburgh

    Forestry and land for

    forestation particularly for

    post-Brexit green subsidies

    Affordable offices Accessible and affordable Provincial market towns with growing

    locations where people want workforces

    to work

    Value-add Secondary and tertiary offices for Regional cities M25 towns, Bristol, Leeds

    refurbishment and repurposing

    High-yielding residential in North West England Liverpool, Manchester

    locations with scope for

    catch-up capital growth

    Opportunistic Joint ventures with housing Growing urban centres

    associations for long-term throughout England

    residential income streams

    Management and diversification

    of distressed farms and farmland

    threatened by Brexit

    Alternative Strategic land for residential Local authority areas with up South-East England

    development up-to-date local plans

    6Click here to return to Contents page

  • Asia-Pacific Investment type Property type Location

    Characteristics Examples

    Core Grade A offices Stock likely to experience Singapore

    further yield compression due

    to investor demand

    Grade A offices Store of wealth China

    Premium retail centres Well-managed and able to China

    withstand competition from

    e-commerce

    Residential Areas with strong labour Japan

    demand

    Grade A offices Low vacancy buildings Core Seoul, Korea

    Hyper marts With sale and leaseback clauses Tier 1 Korean cities

    Property companies with 2017 real-estate gains will Australia

    exposure to Sydney offices be priced in to unit values

    Offices Lower supply areas with strong Australia

    employment growth

    Core-plus Grade A offices High-yielding emerging markets Vietnam – Ho Chi Minh, Hanoi

    Higher-yielding & reversionary Decentralised locations