Impacts of (Possible) Climate Change in the Production of Sugar canein Center-South Region of Brazil

J.Zullo Jr, A.Koga-Vicente, V.R.PereiraCepagri - Center for Meteorological and Climate Studies Applied to Agriculture / Unicamp - University of Campinas

Challenge

Answer the following questions:What can happen to Brazilian Agriculture in next decades if the temperature and precipitation change according to IPCC reports? Will the low climate risk areas of the main crops decrease, increase or migrate?

Public Policy since 1995

CoordinationPolitical: Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA)

Technical: EMBRAPA, Regional Institutes for Agricultural Research and Universities

National Farm Credit Policy: US$ 56.5 billion (7.5 for small farmers) in 2014/15Main Objective

Decrease the Climate Risks for less than 20% (probability of 80% of having an adequate water supply for irrigated and rainfed crops)

Climate RisksDry spells during the reproductive phase (flowering and grain filling) – 60% of losses

Rainfall excess during maturation and harvest - 30% of losses

Main crops are mainly rainfed (grow during the rainy season, i.e., from October to March);

Methodology:

Annual crops: Simulation of Cumulative Water Balances for Different Soil Types, Planting Dates, Cycle Lengths and Weather Ground Stations

Perennial Crops: Combination of Information Plans

Institutional website: http://www.agricultura.gov.br/politica-agricola/zoneamento-agricola

Technical and Political Bases - Agricultural Zoning of Climate Risks

Agricultural Zoning of Climate Risks

Planting calendars for all municipalities of a region or a state; three 10-days periods per month; three soil types (sandy, medium and clayey); two or three cycle lengths;

First Crops: Rice, Beans, Corn, and Soybean;

Current Crops: more than 40;

Development and improvement of a robust methodology for Agricultural Zoning that can be used for other purposes related to the agricultural planning such as the Impact Assessment of the Climate Changes

Source: http://www.agricultura.gov.br/politica-agricola/zoneamento-agricola

Challenge: choose the Global Climate Models – AR4/IPCC (2007)

Reference: Macedo Filho, C. MSc Dissertation, Unicamp, 2011.

Climate Change Scenarios – IPCC 2007 and 2013/14Methodology: generation of new zonings simulating different climate conditions according to IPCC Reports

Climate Change Scenarios – Sugar cane

HadCM3 and MIROCmed GCM

IPCC 2007

HadCM3

Miroc

Climate Change Scenarios – Sugar cane

HadGEM2 and MIROC3 GCM

IPCC 2013/2014

HadGEM2

Miroc3

Comparisons – Current Zoning

Comparisons – Climate Change Scenarios – Hadley and Miroc – 2007 and 2013/14

HADLEY

MIROC

AR4 – IPCC - 2007 AR5 – IPCC – 2013/14

MODEL

Climate Change Scenarios – Sugar caneOverlay: Sugar mills and Planted areas

HadGEM2 and MIROC3 GCMIPCC 2013/2014

HadGEM2

Miroc3

Sugar mills, Current Zoning and a Climate Change Scenario

Climate Change Scenarios – Sugar caneRibeirão Preto – Traditional Region

HadGEM2

Miroc3

Competition for Sugar cane in the state of São Paulo

References: Belik et al. (2013b) and Vicente et al. (2012)

References: Belik et al. (2013) and Vicente et al. (2012)

Competition for Sugar cane in the region of Ribeirão Preto and its neighbor regions

Climate Change Scenarios – Sugar caneExpansion Regions

HadGEM2

Miroc3

Available Area = Total Area – Urban Area – Water Bodies - Protected Areas- Sugar cane - (Coffee + Orange) - (Rice + Maize + Beans)

Available Area for Expansion of Sugar cane

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

500055000

105000155000205000255000305000355000405000455000

cana- de-açúcar outras culturas

ano

hect

ares

Ribeirão Preto - IBGE

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

5000

55000

105000

155000

205000255000

305000

355000

405000

455000

cana- de-açúcar outras culturas

ano

mil

hec

tare

s

Piracicaba - IBGE

Traditional Sugar cane Regions – Land use

Expansion Regions – Land use

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

500055000

105000155000205000255000305000355000405000455000

cana- de-açúcar outras culturas

ano

mil

hec

tare

s

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

500055000

105000155000205000255000305000355000405000455000

cana- de-açúcar outras culturas

ano

hect

ares

Araçatuba - IBGE

Presidente Prudente - IBGE

Data and Papers Available

http://www.cpa.unicamp.br/alcscens

Global Warming and the New Geography of Agricultural

Production in Brazil

http://www.cpa.unicamp.br/clima_e_agricultura_en.zip

Conclusions

Global Climate Models: Temperature anomalies of new version of Hadley Global Climate Model improved the areas of low climate risk (mainly in south of Minas Gerais)

Challenges for the futureTraditional RegionsIncrease the yield and develop new production technologies because of the low availability of land for expansion

Better planning because of the competition for sugar cane

Expansion RegionsBreeding development adapted to water deficit because of the

increasing need of irrigation

Impacts of (Possible) Climate Change in the Production of Sugar canein Center-South Region of Brazil

J.Zullo Jr, A.Koga-Vicente, V.R.PereiraCepagri - Center for Meteorological and Climate Studies Applied to Agriculture / Unicamp - University of Campinas