Impact of Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruption on ENSO in a Coupled GCM Masamichi Ohba (Central...
1
Impact of Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruption on ENSO Impact of Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruption on ENSO in a Coupled in a Coupled GCM GCM Masamichi Ohba Masamichi Ohba (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan) (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan) Hideo Shiogama, Tokuta Yokohata Hideo Shiogama, Tokuta Yokohata (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan) (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan) Masahiro Watanabe Masahiro Watanabe (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan) (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan) 2. Coupled GCM: MIROC5(T42 2. Coupled GCM: MIROC5(T42 ver.) ver.) 1. Introduction 1. Introduction b. El Niño b. El Niño & La Niña: Phase-dependency & La Niña: Phase-dependency Experimental design Experimental design Derived from obs. lag-regression (1900-2000) to tropical optical thickness 2. Transition El Niño 2. Duration La Niña 200-yr Ctrl run La Nina Peak! Start from 1 July Initial:5 ensemble by LAF 1. Normal year init SVE: Forcing Identical twin forecast experiment Identical twin forecast experiment 1. 1. Normal year Normal year experiment experiment 2. 2. El Niño El Niño and and La Niña La Niña phase experiment phase experiment El Nino Peak! Explosive strong volcanic eruptions (SVE) acts to scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation in the stratosphere, reducing the amount of surface solar radiation (Robock 2000). Analysis of paleo-climate records suggests that the radiative effects of tropical SVE can lead to a more El Niño–like state and increase the probability of El Niño occurrences (Adams et al. 2003; McGregor et al. 2010). It is of considerable importance to determine how the tropical Pacific Ocean responds to volcanic forcing, since El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to affect weather and climate around the globe. Using an simple anomaly air-sea coupled model (Zebiak and Cane 1987), Mann et al. (2005) and Emile-Geay et al. (2008) show an central eastern equatorial Pacific (CEP) warming in response to a uniform reduction of surface heat fluxes. The response can be explained by the dynamical thermostat mechanism (Clement et al. 1996). This mechanism assumes that the mean upwelling of subsurface water in the CEP combined with the reduction of the ocean vertical temperature gradient act to reduce the volcanic cooling in the region, that can excite a zonal SST gradient and then El Niño. The motivation for this study is to examine ENSO’s response to tropical SVE using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). No response La Niña El Niño Robock 2000 Adams et al. 2003 Handler 1984 Handler & Andsager 1990 Nicholls 1990 Self et al. 1997 McGregor et al. 2010 McGregor & Timmerman 2011 Stenchikov et al. 2007 Mann et al. 2005 Emile-Geay 2008 Volcanic eruption initially cause Volcanic eruption initially cause Clement et al. 1996 Obs. Simple model GCM GCM Obs. 3. Impact of SVE on the 3. Impact of SVE on the ENSO ENSO a. Normal year experiment a. Normal year experiment SVE excites El Niño for the next year as revealed in the paleo-climate records. The result is very similar to SVE experiment in GFDL-CM2.1. (Stenchikov ea. 2007, AGU) 4 case 5 mem. composite IO-WP Cooling! CEP Warming Anomalous westerly over the WP 4. Summary 4. Summary Super volcanic eruption (SVE) in MIROC5 ⇒ excites El Niño like condition by the anomalous WP westerly and then increase the probability of El Niño occurrences as revealed by observational data (Adams et al. 2003, McGregor et al. 2010). The response of MIROC5 is relatively similar to that of GFDL-CM2.1 (Stenchikov et al. 2007, AGU) The anomalous westerly could be mainly attributed to the land-sea contrast in surface cooling and its time-scale for adjustment, i.e., namely rapid response over the maritime continent. The role of dynamical thermostat (Clement et al. 1996) may be minor as shown in McGregor et al. (2011). SVE during El Niño ⇒ contribute to the duration of El Niño. SVE during La Niña ⇒ counteract to the La Niña duration. Because of the amplification by the air-sea coupled feedback, the effect of SVE on El Niño is much stronger than that in La Niña, which is consistent with Stenchikov et al. (2007). Red: SVE Black NoSVE As the SVE forcing increases, anomalous westerly (weakening of the trade winds) is found in the equatorial western Pacific (WP), that can potentially excite El Niño. ○ Early stage （ around SVE peak ） Cooling (with drying) around the Maritime Continent (MC). The zonal temperature gradient result in anomalous WP westerly. (Cooling over the MC reduces the Walker circulation) Cooling expand into the WP and Indian Ocean (IO). ○ Middle stage Onset of El Niño Mature phase of El Niño Reduced IO cooling and enhanced WP cooling 5 case 5 mem. composite Duration of El Niño! Solid: NoSVE Dash: SVE Weakened duration! SVE during El Niño ⇒ contribute to the duration of El Niño. SVE during La Niña ⇒ counteract to the La Niña duration. RMSE from Ctrl for El Niño is much lager than that for La Niña ⇒ The warming effect in the year during El Nino is much robust (Stenchikov et al. 2007). SVE amplitude-dependency El Niño phase is sensitive to change in the SVE intensity. The El Niño duration in response to the strong SVE is robust. Air-sea coupled feedback may Significantly amplify the response. Downward positive Enhanced wind speed & reduced q2 Also contribute to the cooling around the MC Decrease of surface temperature over the land is earlier (stronger) than that over the ocean surface. Cooling of the MC ocean is also earlier. MC Intermediate Coupled Model: How extent explain by the MC cooling ? ) /( / 0 ) ( ) /( ) /( 0 0 0 m p m sub s y m x m t y x t y y t x x t H C Q H T w T v T u T v u h h v h h g fu v u h h g fv u ) ( 1 ) ) ( ( ) ) ( ( ) ( ) ( 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 v v u u W W q T q W q T q W LC Q T T W T T W C C Q v W v W C u W u W C s s s s e e s s h p h d y d x SST Ocn ： 1.5-layer linear ocean model (ZC ocn model) Atm ： Empirical atmospheric model Wind Input GCM surface condition T T PO PO T T MC MC CZ model SST GCM The role of dynamical thermostat (Clement et al. 1996) is relatively minor compared with the MC cooling. Sfc wind response is derived from regression on GCM. PDF W/m 2 (30S- 30N) Instead of Nino-34 index, zonal difference of Ts is used. Enhanced zonal gradient between WP & CEP by SVE Most remarkable case Black: Anomaly in noSVE Green&Shd: Diff between SVE -noSVE El Niño-related anomalous westerly is strengthened around the SVE peak and then prevent the following transition Reduced Easterly anom. around SVE El Nino La Nina Red: SVE Black: NoSVE Normal
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Transcript of Impact of Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruption on ENSO in a Coupled GCM Masamichi Ohba (Central...
Impact of Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruption on ENSOImpact of Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruption on ENSO in a Coupled in a Coupled GCMGCM
Masamichi OhbaMasamichi Ohba (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan)(Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan)
Hideo Shiogama, Tokuta Yokohata Hideo Shiogama, Tokuta Yokohata (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan)(National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan)
Masahiro WatanabeMasahiro Watanabe (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan)(Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan)2. Coupled GCM: MIROC5(T42 ver.) 2. Coupled GCM: MIROC5(T42 ver.) 1. Introduction1. Introduction b. El Niñob. El Niño & La Niña: Phase-dependency & La Niña: Phase-dependency Experimental designExperimental design
Derived from obs. lag-regression (1900-2000) to tropical optical thickness
2. Transition El Niño
2. Duration La Niña200-yr Ctrl run
La Nina Peak!
Start from 1 July Initial:5 ensemble by LAF 1. Normal year init
SVE: Forcing
Identical twin forecast experimentIdentical twin forecast experiment1. 1. Normal year Normal year experimentexperiment2. 2. El Niño El Niño and and La Niña La Niña phase experimentphase experiment
El Nino Peak!
Explosive strong volcanic eruptions (SVE) acts to scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation in the stratosphere, reducing the amount of surface solar radiation (Robock 2000). Analysis of paleo-climate records suggests that the radiative effects of tropical SVE can lead to a more El Niño–like state and increase the probability of El Niño occurrences (Adams et al. 2003; McGregor et al. 2010).
It is of considerable importance to determine how the tropical Pacific Ocean responds to volcanic forcing, since El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to affect weather and climate around the globe. Using an simple anomaly air-sea coupled model (Zebiak and Cane 1987), Mann et al. (2005) and Emile-Geay et al. (2008) show an central eastern equatorial Pacific (CEP) warming in response to a uniform reduction of surface heat fluxes. The response can be explained by the dynamical thermostat mechanism (Clement et al. 1996). This mechanism assumes that the mean upwelling of subsurface water in the CEP combined with the reduction of the ocean vertical temperature gradient act to reduce the volcanic cooling in the region, that can excite a zonal SST gradient and then El Niño. The motivation for this study is to examine ENSO’s response to tropical SVE using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM).
No response
La NiñaEl Niño
Robock 2000
Adams et al. 2003Handler 1984Handler & Andsager 1990
Nicholls 1990
Self et al. 1997
McGregor et al. 2010
McGregor & Timmerman 2011
Stenchikov et al. 2007
Mann et al. 2005
Emile-Geay 2008
Volcanic eruption initially cause Volcanic eruption initially cause
Clement et al. 1996
Obs.
Simple model
GCM
GCM
Obs.
3. Impact of SVE on the ENSO3. Impact of SVE on the ENSO a. Normal year experimenta. Normal year experiment
SVE excites El Niño for the next year as revealed in the paleo-climate records.
The result is very similar to SVE experiment in GFDL-CM2.1.(Stenchikov ea. 2007, AGU)
4 case 5 mem. composite
IO-WP Cooling!CEP Warming Anomalous westerly
over the WP
4. Summary4. Summary Super volcanic eruption (SVE) in MIROC5 ⇒ excites El Niño like condition by the anomalous WP westerly and then increase the probability of El Niño occurrences as revealed by observational data (Adams et al. 2003, McGregor et al. 2010). The response of MIROC5 is relatively similar to that of GFDL-CM2.1 (Stenchikov et al. 2007, AGU) The anomalous westerly could be mainly attributed to the land-sea contrast in surface cooling and its time-scale for adjustment, i.e., namely rapid response over the maritime continent. The role of dynamical thermostat (Clement et al. 1996) may be minor as shown in McGregor et al. (2011). SVE during El Niño ⇒ contribute to the duration of El Niño. SVE during La Niña ⇒ counteract to the La Niña duration. Because of the amplification by the air-sea coupled feedback, the effect of SVE on El Niño is much stronger than that in La Niña, which is consistent with Stenchikov et al. (2007). A rapid change in radiative forcing by geoengineering may constitute a risk to cause ENSO events.
Red: SVEBlack NoSVE
As the SVE forcing increases, anomalous westerly (weakening of the trade winds) is found in the equatorial western Pacific (WP), that can potentially excite El Niño.
○ Early stage （ around SVE peak ） Cooling (with drying) around the Maritime Continent (MC).
The zonal temperature gradient result in anomalous WP westerly. (Cooling over the MC reduces the Walker circulation) Cooling expand into the WP and Indian Ocean (IO).
○ Middle stage Onset of El Niño
Mature phase of El NiñoReduced IO cooling and enhanced WP cooling
5 case 5 mem. composite
Duration of El Niño!
Solid: NoSVEDash: SVE
Weakened duration!
SVE during El Niño ⇒ contribute to the duration of El Niño. SVE during La Niña ⇒ counteract to the La Niña duration. RMSE from Ctrl for El Niño is much lager than that for La Niña ⇒ The warming effect in the year during El Nino is much robust (Stenchikov et al. 2007).
SVE amplitude-dependency
El Niño phase is sensitive to change in the SVE intensity. The El Niño duration in response to the strong SVE is robust.
Air-sea coupled feedback maySignificantly amplify the response.
Downward positive
Enhanced wind speed & reduced q2 Also contribute to the cooling around the MC
Decrease of surface temperature over the land is earlier (stronger) than that over the ocean surface. Cooling of the MC ocean is also earlier.
MC
Intermediate Coupled Model: How extent explain by the MC cooling ?
)/(/
0)(
)/(
)/(
0
0
0
mpmsubsymxmt
yxt
yyt
xxt
HCQHTwTvTuT
vuhh
vhhgfuv
uhhgfvu
)(1
))(())((
)()(
00000
0
0000
0000
0000
0000
vvuuW
W
qTqWqTqWLCQ
TTWTTWCCQ
vWvWC
uWuWC
ssssee
sshph
dy
dx
SST Ocn ： 1.5-layer linear ocean model (ZC ocn model)
Atm ： Empirical atmospheric model
Wind
Input GCM surface condition
TTPOPOTTMCMC
CZ model SSTGCM The role of dynamical thermostat (Clement et al.
1996) is relatively minor compared with the MC cooling.
Sfc wind response is derived from regression on GCM.
W/m2
(30S-30N)
Instead of Nino-34 index, zonal difference of Ts is used.
Enhanced zonal gradient between WP & CEP by SVE
Most remarkable case
Black: Anomaly in noSVEGreen&Shd: Diff between SVE -noSVE
El Niño-related anomalous westerly is strengthened around the SVE peak and then prevent the following transition
Reduced Easterly anom. around SVE
El Nino
La Nina
Red: SVEBlack: NoSVE
Normal
